Evacuation plan creation method, evacuation plan creation device, and program

Abstract

To provide a method of creating an evacuation plan of selecting an evacuation destination to which a user can surely evacuate by considering the accommodation capacity of the evacuation destination and difficulty of evacuation.SOLUTION: An evacuation plan creation method comprises the steps of: setting a first zone that is the most dangerous, a second zone that is the temporary evacuation destination and a third zone that is the final evacuation destination; setting evacuees who stay in the first zone to the third zone; setting a support resource used for movement support between the zones; and calculating the evacuees and the support resource moving from the first zone to the second zone, the evacuees and the support resource moving from the first zone to the third zone and the evacuees and the support resource moving from the second zone to the third zone such that an evacuation cost between the respective zones satisfies a constraint condition and satisfies a prescribed evacuation strategy condition.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

[Technical Field]

[0001] The present disclosure relates to an evacuation plan creation method, an evacuation plan creation device, and a program. [Background technology]

[0002] Generally, evacuation destinations in the event of a disaster are often fixed for each residential area, such as Facility A for residents of one area and Facility B for residents of the neighboring area. However, when a disaster actually occurs, it can be difficult to implement evacuation plans formulated in peacetime, for example, because the facilities intended as evacuation destinations are unusable due to building damage, or because evacuation demand differs from expectations due to the impact of temporary residents or injured people. This can lead to problems such as relatively low-risk evacuees quickly occupying evacuation destination facilities due to limited evacuation destination capacity, making them unavailable to high-risk evacuees. As a related technology, Patent Document 1 discloses a system for creating an efficient plan for evacuating victims to distant evacuation facilities in the event of a disaster at a nuclear facility.

[0003] In order to ensure the safety of evacuees when a disaster occurs, it is necessary to take measures such as at the very least moving people from dangerous areas, ensuring that evacuation destinations do not become full, and if there are no vacancies, moving people who have room to other evacuation destinations to make room, and if there are vacancies but evacuation is difficult due to various circumstances, guiding people to alternative evacuation destinations. However, no method for selecting evacuation destinations depending on the situation has been provided, and Patent Document 1 does not disclose this method either. [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0004] [Patent Document 1] Patent Publication No. 2021-12424 Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0005] There is a need for a method to create an evacuation plan that selects a reliable evacuation destination, taking into account the destination's capacity and the difficulty of evacuation.

[0006] The present disclosure provides an evacuation plan creation method, an evacuation plan creation device, and a program that can solve the above-mentioned problems. [Means for solving the problem]

[0007] The evacuation plan creation method of the present disclosure includes: The computer a step of setting the acceptance capacities of a first zone, which is a place where evacuation should be given top priority, a second zone, which is a place that can be used as a temporary evacuation destination, and a third zone, which is a place that can be used as a final evacuation destination; The computer a step of setting the number and attributes of evacuees staying in the first zone, the number and attributes of evacuees staying in the second zone, and the number and attributes of evacuees staying in the third zone at the start of evacuation; The computer setting the type and quantity of assistance resources that can be used to assist in movement from the first zone to the second zone or the third zone and to assist in movement from the second zone to the third zone; The computer The method includes a step of calculating an evacuation cost, which is the cost required for evacuation, for each of the evacuees staying in the first zone and the second zone based on the attributes of each of the evacuees staying in the first zone, the second zone, and the third zone and the available support resources, and calculating the types and quantities of the evacuees moving from the first zone to the second zone and the support resources required for their evacuation, the types and quantities of the evacuees moving from the first zone to the third zone and the support resources required for their evacuation, and the types and quantities of the evacuees moving from the second zone to the third zone and the support resources required for their evacuation, so that the evacuation cost satisfies predetermined constraints and the evacuation destination is selected so that it does not exceed the acceptance capacity, and so that predetermined evacuation strategy conditions are satisfied.

[0008] The evacuation plan creation device of the present disclosure includes a first zone, which is a place where evacuation should be given the highest priority, a second zone, which is a place that can be used as a temporary evacuation destination, and a third zone, which is a place that can be used as a final evacuation destination; a means for setting the capacity of each of these; a means for setting the number and attributes of evacuees staying in the first zone at the start of evacuation, the number and attributes of evacuees staying in the second zone, and the number and attributes of evacuees staying in the third zone; a means for setting the type and quantity of support resources that can be used to support movement from the first zone to the second zone or the third zone and to support movement from the second zone to the third zone; and a means for setting the type and quantity of support resources that can be used to support movement from the first zone to the second zone or the third zone and to support movement from the second zone to the third zone. The system has a means for calculating an evacuation cost, which is the cost required for evacuation, for each of the evacuees staying in the first zone and the second zone based on their attributes and the available support resources, and for calculating the types and quantities of the evacuees moving from the first zone to the second zone and the support resources required for their evacuation, the types and quantities of the evacuees moving from the first zone to the third zone and the support resources required for their evacuation, and the types and quantities of the evacuees moving from the second zone to the third zone and the support resources required for their evacuation, so that the evacuation cost satisfies predetermined constraints and the evacuation destination is selected so that it does not exceed the acceptance capacity, and so that predetermined evacuation strategy conditions are satisfied.

[0009] The program of the present disclosure also includes the steps of setting, in a computer, a first zone which is a place where evacuation should be given the highest priority, a second zone which is a place which can be used as a temporary evacuation destination, and a third zone which is a place which can be used as a final evacuation destination, and their respective acceptance capacities; setting the number and attributes of evacuees who will be staying in the first zone at the start of evacuation, the number and attributes of evacuees who will be staying in the second zone, and the number and attributes of evacuees who will be staying in the third zone; setting the type and quantity of support resources that can be used to support movement from the first zone to the second zone or the third zone and to support movement from the second zone to the third zone; The method executes the steps of: calculating an evacuation cost, which is the cost required for evacuation, for each of the evacuees staying in the first zone and the second zone based on the attributes of each evacuee and the available support resources; selecting an evacuation destination where the evacuation cost satisfies predetermined constraints and does not exceed the acceptance capacity; and calculating the types and quantities of the evacuees moving from the first zone to the second zone and the support resources required for their evacuation, the types and quantities of the evacuees moving from the first zone to the third zone and the support resources required for their evacuation, and the types and quantities of the evacuees moving from the second zone to the third zone and the support resources required for their evacuation, so as to satisfy predetermined evacuation strategy conditions. [Effects of the Invention]

[0010] According to the above-described evacuation plan creation method, evacuation plan creation device, and program, an evacuation destination can be selected taking into consideration the accommodation capacity of the evacuation destination and the difficulty of evacuation. [Brief explanation of the drawings]

[0011] [Figure 1] 1 is a block diagram illustrating an example of an evacuation plan creation device according to an embodiment. [Figure 2] 10 is a flowchart illustrating an example of an evacuation plan creation process according to the embodiment. [Figure 3] FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating an example of facility information according to the embodiment. [Figure 4] FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating an example of evacuee information according to the embodiment. [Figure 5] FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating an example of support resource information according to the embodiment. [Figure 6] FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating zoning of evacuation facilities according to the embodiment. [Figure 7A] FIG. 2 is a first diagram showing an example of an evaluation result of mobility characteristics according to the embodiment. [Figure 7B] FIG. 10 is a second diagram showing an example of an evaluation result of mobility characteristics according to the embodiment. [Figure 7C] FIG. 10 is a third diagram showing an example of an evaluation result of mobility characteristics according to the embodiment. [Figure 7D] FIG. 4 is a fourth diagram showing an example of an evaluation result of mobility characteristics according to the embodiment. [Figure 7E] FIG. 5 is a fifth diagram showing an example of an evaluation result of mobility characteristics according to the embodiment. [Figure 7F] FIG. 6 is a sixth diagram showing an example of an evaluation result of mobility characteristics according to the embodiment. [Figure 8] FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating a movement risk according to an embodiment. [Figure 9] FIG. 2 is a first diagram showing an example of a destination determination logic for each zone according to the embodiment. [Figure 10] FIG. 10 is a second diagram showing an example of a destination determination logic for each zone according to the embodiment. [Figure 11] FIG. 10 is a third diagram illustrating an example of a destination determination logic for each zone according to the embodiment. [Figure 12] FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating an example of a hardware configuration of an evacuation plan creation device according to an embodiment. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0012] <Embodiment> The method for creating an evacuation plan according to the present disclosure will be described below with reference to the drawings. (composition) FIG. 1 is a block diagram illustrating an example of an evacuation plan creation device according to an embodiment. The evacuation plan creation device 10 creates a plan to reliably evacuate evacuees in the most dangerous situations, taking into account the capacity of the evacuation destination and the difficulty of evacuation. For example, in order to ensure the capacity to accept evacuees in dangerous situations, the evacuation plan creation device 10 calculates an optimal evacuation plan in accordance with a desired evacuation strategy (e.g., shortening the evacuation time as much as possible) while considering various options, such as re-evacuating relatively available evacuees (who do not necessarily need to evacuate themselves) to other evacuation destinations to create space for evacuees in dangerous situations, temporarily evacuating evacuees in dangerous situations to facilities that can ensure a minimum level of safety, even if safety is not guaranteed, and facilitating evacuation by introducing support resources to balance the supply and demand between evacuees and destinations. The evacuation plan includes information on which evacuees to move to which destination. This makes it possible to create a plan to create space to accept as many evacuees as possible or to guide them to other evacuation destinations with excess capacity, even in the event of a situation unrelated to the plan created in peacetime, such as when evacuation demand exceeds the destination's capacity.

[0013] As shown in the figure, the evacuation plan creation device 10 includes a data acquisition unit 11, an input reception unit 12, a plan calculation unit 13, an output unit 14, and a storage unit 15.

[0014] The data acquisition unit 11 acquires disaster information such as the type and scale of the disaster and the extent of the damage, facility information such as the location of facilities that can serve as evacuation destinations, the condition of the building, the capacity and status of the facility, and the equipment the facility has, evacuee information such as the number of evacuees and their attributes (for example, the age, sex, family composition, physical condition such as injury or illness of each evacuee, and information on the support required by the evacuees), map information including roads and facilities in the area where evacuees are located, and support resource information such as vehicles and equipment (wheelchairs, medical equipment, etc.) that can be used to support evacuation and the number of supporters, and stores the acquired information in the memory unit 15.

[0015] The input receiving unit 12 receives instruction information, setting information, and the like input by a user using an input device such as a keyboard, a mouse, or a touch panel. The plan calculation unit 13 calculates a plan for evacuating evacuees who are in dangerous facilities to safe facilities. The output unit 14 outputs the evacuation plan calculated by the plan calculation unit 13 to a display device or an electronic file. The storage unit 15 stores various information acquired by the data acquisition unit 11 and the input reception unit 12, information currently being processed, and the like.

[0016] (Evacuation plan creation process flow) An example of the evacuation plan creation process according to this embodiment is shown in Fig. 2. In the process shown in Fig. 2, an evacuation plan is created for moving between facilities where evacuees are staying, to move to a safer facility. Facilities include gymnasiums, community centers, hospitals, and elderly care facilities. First, the data acquisition unit 11 acquires various types of information, such as disaster information, facility information, evacuee information, map information, and support resource information (step S1). These pieces of information are written and stored in the storage unit 15. FIG. 3 shows an example of facility information. For example, the facility information includes information such as the facility's address, the number of people it can accommodate, its current capacity, and whether it is barrier-free or equipped with medical equipment. FIG. 4 shows an example of evacuee information. For example, the evacuee information includes, for each evacuee, information such as the facility where the evacuee is located, whether the evacuee can evacuate on their own, whether the evacuee is injured, whether the evacuee requires equipment such as a wheelchair or an oxygen inhaler, and an estimated walking speed. FIG. 5 shows an example of support resource information. For example, the support resource information includes the number of vehicles (welfare vehicles, buses, cars, etc.) that can transport evacuees, the number of wheelchairs available for loan to evacuees who have difficulty evacuating on their own, such as those requiring special consideration in the event of a disaster or assistance with evacuation, and the number of supporters who can help with evacuation, such as by driving vehicles or pushing wheelchairs. Furthermore, as disaster information, the data acquiring unit 11 acquires information on when people must evacuate to a safe place. Note that the facility information, evacuee information, and support resource information exemplified in Figs. 3 to 5 are merely examples and are not intended to be limiting.

[0017] Next, facilities that will serve as evacuation destinations are set (step S2). For example, the user evaluates the condition of each facility by referring to the facility information and map information acquired in step S1. For example, the user evaluates each facility from the perspective of whether it is in a state where it can accept evacuees, whether there are problems with the building condition or some of the equipment or functions but whether it is possible to accept evacuees temporarily, etc. Based on this evaluation, the user classifies each facility into, for example, unacceptable, possible to accept evacuees temporarily, or acceptable, and inputs the classification results to the evacuation plan creation device 10. The input receiving unit 12 receives this input and records the evaluation results of each facility in the memory unit 15. For example, facilities A and C are set as facilities that can accept evacuees temporarily, and facilities B, D, and E are set as acceptable facilities.

[0018] Next, the occurrence status of damage is set (step S3). For example, the user refers to the disaster information and map information acquired in step S1 and evaluates the degree of danger for each area. For example, the user classifies each area into one of dangerous area, outside the dangerous area (area relatively close to the dangerous area), and far away (area far from the dangerous area, area without danger), and inputs the classification results to the evacuation plan creation device 10. The input receiving unit 12 receives this input and records the evaluation results for each area in the memory unit 15. For example, facilities A and B are located in the dangerous area, facilities C and D are located outside the dangerous area, and E is located far away.

[0019] Next, the plan calculation unit 13 zones the evacuation destination facilities (step S4). Zoning of evacuation facilities will be described with reference to FIG. 6. In the evacuation plan creation process of this embodiment, evacuation destination facilities are classified into zones 1 to 5 based on the condition and location of the facility. Zone 1 classifies facilities that are in poor building condition (unhealthy buildings) and located in locations with a high risk of future disasters. Zone 2 classifies facilities that are unhealthy and located in locations with a low risk of damage. Zone 3 classifies facilities that are in good building condition (healthy buildings) and located in locations with a high risk of damage. Zone 4 classifies facilities that are healthy and located in locations with a low risk of damage, and zone 5 classifies healthy buildings that are located far away. In the case of facilities A to E described above, facility A is classified into zone 1, facility C into zone 2, facility B into zone 3, facility D into zone 4, and facility E into zone 5. Here, travel from facility A in zone 1 to facility D in zone 4 takes longer than travel from facility A in zone 1 to facility C in zone 2 or facility B in zone 3, and travel from facility C in zone 2 or facility B in zone 3 to facility D in zone 4 takes shorter time than travel from facility A in zone 1 to facility D in zone 4. It is also assumed that travel from facility C in zone 2 or facility B in zone 3 to facility E in zone 5 takes longer than travel from facility D in zone 4 to facility E in zone 5. Hereinafter, travel from facility A in zone 1 to facility D in zone 4 may be simply referred to as travel from zone 1 to zone 4. Each zone may have more than one facility. The plan calculation unit 13 calculates a plan to, at a minimum, move evacuees staying in zone 1, which is the most dangerous, to other zones, preferably to zone 4 rather than zones 2 and 3, and to move evacuees who originally stayed in zones 2 and 3 to zones 4 and 5 as much as possible.

[0020] For example, if the disaster is a tsunami, zones 1 and 3 are flooded areas, while zones 2, 4, and 5 are not. If the disaster is an urban fire, zones 1 and 3 are downwind, and zones 2, 4, and 5 are upwind. Traveling from zones 1 and 3 to zone 4 often involves greater distances and elevation differences than traveling from zone 2 to zone 4, making it more difficult. As a result, evacuees may move from zone 2 to zone 4 first, and zone 4 may reach its capacity, meaning that facility D in zone 4 will be unable to accommodate evacuees who move later from zones 1 and 3 to zone 4. To prevent this from happening, the plan calculation unit 13 creates an evacuation plan taking into account the capacity of the destination. For example, evacuees who were originally staying in zone 4 often have more space than those in zones 1 to 3. Evacuees who were staying in zones 2 and 3 are also in a more advantageous position than those in zone 1. The plan calculation unit 13 calculates an evacuation plan to move evacuees staying in the most dangerous zone 1 to other zones 2 to 4, and preferably to move evacuees staying in zones 2 to 3 to safe zones 4 and 5. In this case, the plan calculation unit 13 considers a plan that allows zone 4 to accommodate as many evacuees from zones 1 to 3 as possible by moving evacuees from zone 4, which has room to maneuver, to the distant zone 5, and also moving evacuees from zones 2 and 3 to zone 5 if possible. Also, depending on the attributes of the evacuees, there may be evacuees who cannot move from zone 1 to zone 4 (for example, the move would take too long and they would not make it in time) or who find it difficult to stay in zone 4 (for example, necessary medical facilities, etc. are not provided in zone 4). For such evacuees, an evacuation plan is created to temporarily move them to zones 2 and 3.

[0021] Next, the plan calculation unit 13 evaluates the movement characteristics of each zone (step S5). For example, the plan calculation unit 13 calculates the relationship between the amount of support resources input and the number of people moving for each zone. FIG. 7A shows the relationship between the number of people moving from Zone 1 to Zone 4 (vertical axis) and the amount of support resources input for moving from Zone 1 to Zone 4. As shown in the figure, even if the amount of support resources input is increased, the number of people who can move from Zone 1 to Zone 4 reaches a plateau. This is because there are people who cannot move within the time limit even if support resources are input (for example, there are not enough vehicles available for evacuees who cannot evacuate on their own, or a person who needs certain medical equipment is present in Facility A in Zone 1 but cannot move to Facility D in Zone 4 because that equipment does not exist there). Furthermore, the reason why a certain number of people move from Zone 1 to Zone 4 even when the amount of support resources input is zero is because there are evacuees who can move from Zone 1 to Zone 4 on their own. Similarly, the plan calculation unit 13 calculates the relationship between the number of people moving from zone 1 to zone 2 or zone 3 (vertical axis) and the amount of support resources to be input for movement from zone 1 to zone 2 or zone 3 (FIG. 7B). Also, as shown in FIG. 7C, there is a negative correlation between the amount of support resources to be input for movement from zone 1 to zone 4 (horizontal axis) and the amount of support resources to be input for movement from zone 1 to zone 2 or zone 3 (vertical axis). As will be explained later, from these relationships (FIGS. 7A to 7C), the plan calculation unit 13 calculates the amount of support resources to be input that is necessary to achieve the optimal number of people moving from zone 1 to zone 4 and the optimal number of people moving from zone 1 to zone 2 or zone 3. For example, if there is sufficient travel time, a plan is created to allocate the maximum amount of support resources (Ca in Figure 7A) for movement from zone 1 to zone 4, move as many evacuees as possible from facility A in zone 1 to facility D in zone 4, and allocate the effective amount of remaining support resources (the amount of support resources that will cap the number of people moving, as shown in Cb in Figure 7B, or the necessary amount if the remaining evacuees can be moved to zones 2 and 3 without allocating that much) for movement from zone 1 to zones 2 and 3.Alternatively, if there is a travel time limit and evacuees staying in zone 1 cannot be evacuated unless they are temporarily moved to zones 2 and 3, which are closer than zone 4, the system calculates the evacuees in zone 1 who can move to zone 4 within the time limit and the amount of support resources required for their movement. Then, a plan is calculated that allocates the necessary amount of support resources to the remaining evacuees in zone 1 so that they can move at least from zone 1 to zone 2 or zone 3. In this case, accepting people moving from zone 1 may exceed the capacity of zones 2 and 3, which are temporary evacuation destinations. Therefore, in this embodiment, a plan is also considered to move evacuees from zones 2 and 3 to zone 4 in parallel with the evacuees in zone 1, both to create space to accommodate evacuees moving from the most dangerous zone 1 and to move evacuees originally staying in zones 2 and 3, which are only temporary evacuation destinations, to the safer zone 4.

[0022] For example, as illustrated in FIG. 7D , the plan calculation unit 13 calculates the relationship between the number of people moving from zone 2 or zone 3 to zone 4 (vertical axis) and the amount of support resources to be deployed for the movement from zone 2 or zone 3 to zone 4. Furthermore, as illustrated in FIG. 7E , the plan calculation unit 13 calculates the relationship between the remaining capacity of zone 2 and zone 3 (vertical axis) and the amount of support resources to be deployed for the movement from zone 2 or zone 3 to zone 4. As illustrated in the figure, when the amount of support resources is increased, the number of people moving from zones 2 and 3 to zone 4 increases, and therefore the remaining capacity of zones 2 and 3 also increases. From these relationships, the plan calculation unit 13 can calculate the number of people to be moved from zones 2 and 3 to zone 4 and the amount of support resources to be deployed based on the relationship between the number of people to be moved from zone 1 to zones 2 and 3 and the remaining capacity of zones 2 and 3. However, moving evacuees from zones 2 and 3 to zone 4 may result in exceeding the capacity of zone 4. Therefore, in order to improve the receiving capacity of zone 4, the plan calculation unit 13 calculates a plan to move people staying in zone 4 to the distant zone 5. To do this, the plan calculation unit 13 calculates the relationship between the number of people moving from zone 4 to zone 5 (vertical axis) and the amount of support resources to be invested for movement from zone 4 to zone 5, as illustrated in FIG. 7F. The plan calculation unit 13 writes and saves the calculated movement characteristics in the memory unit 15.

[0023] Next, constraint conditions are set (step S6). For example, the user sets some or all of the constraint expressions shown below. X 12 +X 13 +X 14 +X 24 +X 34 +X 45 ≦Total amount of support resources (a1) n 14 +n 24 +n 34 ≦ Zone 4 capacity (a2) n 12 ≦ Zone 2 capacity (a3) n 13≦ Zone 3 capacity (a4) n 45 ≦ Zone 5 capacity (a5) t 12 ≦Time limit T1 (a6) t 13 ≦Time limit T2 (a7) t 14 ≦Time limit T3 (a8) t 24 ≦Time limit T4 (a9) t 34 ≦Time limit T5 (a10)

[0024] Here, X in constraint (a1) 12 indicates the amount of support resources to be used for moving from Zone 1 to Zone 2, and X 13 indicates the amount of support resources to be used to move from Zone 1 to Zone 3. Other X 14 , X 24 , X 34 , X 45 The same is true for (a1). The constraint (a1) specifies that the amount of support resources to be input for movement between each zone must be equal to or less than the total amount of support resources. Also, n in constraint (a2) 14 is the number of people moving from Zone 1 to Zone 4, n 24 is the number of people moving from Zone 2 to Zone 4, n 34 is the number of people moving from Zone 3 to Zone 4, and constraint (a2) stipulates that the total number of people moving from Zones 1 to 3 to Zone 4 must be less than or equal to Zone 4's capacity (= number of people that Zone 4 can accommodate - number of evacuees already staying in Zone 4). Also, t in constraint (a6) 12 is the travel time from Zone 1 to Zone 2, and constraint (a6) indicates that this travel time must be less than or equal to the time limit T1. 24 is the travel time from zone 2 to zone 4, and this travel time must be equal to or less than the time limit T4. The same applies to the other constraints (a7), (a8), and (a10). The input receiving unit 12 receives input of these constraint equations and stores them in the storage unit 15. Note that the constraint equations described above are merely examples and are not intended to be limiting. For example, constraint equations may be set for values ​​of movement risk and stay risk, which will be described later.

[0025] Next, an evacuation strategy is set (step S7). For example, the user sets one of the following evacuation strategies: (b1) Move all evacuees in Zone 1 to other zones. (b2) (1) is achieved while minimizing the total amount of support resources invested. (b3) (1) is achieved while minimizing the total travel time. (b4)(1) is achieved while maximizing the number of people moving from Zone 1 to Zone 4. (b5)(1) is achieved while minimizing the total migration risk. (b6)(1) is achieved while minimizing the total risk of staying. The input receiving unit 12 receives input of these evacuation strategies and stores them in the storage unit 15. Note that the above-described evacuation strategies are merely examples and are not limiting. For example, an evacuation strategy may be set that minimizes the sum of the movement risk and the stay risk while realizing (1).

[0026] Here, we will explain travel risk with reference to Figure 8. In Figure 8, h0 and h1 represent facilities. Consider travel from facility h0 to facility h1. There are routes r1 to r3 for travel from facility h0 to facility h1, and each route may have different risks. Examples of risks include the risk of exposure to radiation in the event of a nuclear power plant disaster or the difficulty of wheelchair evacuees traveling through a route with stairs. In the former case, routes with high radiation exposure have a high travel risk, while routes with low radiation exposure have a low travel risk. In the latter case, if there are stairs, the travel risk may be high even if the distance is short, while if there are no stairs and only flat roads, the travel risk may be low even if the distance is long. Thus, travel risk varies depending on the location (radiation dose at each location, location of stairs) even for the same route. It also varies depending on the time of day for the same location on the same route due to changes in road surface conditions (high radiation dose depending on the time of day, slippery, evacuation density), and also depending on the attributes of the evacuees (e.g., wheelchair users). Therefore, we define the movement risk as a function of the location, time, and attributes of the evacuees. For example, if evacuee p takes route r i The position at time t when moving is x(p, t, r i ) and the attributes of evacuee p are represented by q(p), then the risk of evacuee p at location x and time t can be expressed as Risk(x, q, t).The risk of evacuee p during the period from time t = 0 to evaluation time t = T can be expressed by the following formula (1).

[0027]

number

[0028] Also, all evacuees p0 to p n The total migration risk can be expressed by the following equation (2).

[0029]

number

[0030] By calculating the movement risk using equation (2), for example, the plan calculation unit 13 can calculate an evacuation plan that minimizes the total movement risk while moving all evacuees in zone 1 to other zones. Alternatively, by calculating the movement risk using equation (1), it is possible to calculate an evacuation plan that is configured with movement routes that keep the movement risk during movement below a predetermined value.

[0031] Furthermore, the risk of staying is, for example, the burden on a wheelchair-using evacuee or those around them if they have to stay in a facility that is not equipped with various facilities such as a toilet for wheelchair users. Alternatively, the risk of staying may be the facilities (power supply, toilet, shower, etc.) of the evacuation facility, as well as the stockpile and supply status of food. The risk of staying may also be expressed as a function of the location (which facility), the attributes of the evacuee, the length of stay, etc., and, similar to the risk of movement, for example, the sum from time t = 0 to T and the sum for all evacuees may be calculated, and an evacuation plan may be calculated that minimizes these values.

[0032] Next, the plan calculation unit 13 calculates an evacuation plan that satisfies the conditions (step S9). For example, the plan calculation unit 13 repeatedly executes the zone-specific destination determination logic described below while adjusting the support resources to be input, and selects an optimal solution from among plans that satisfy the constraints and the evacuation strategy. FIG. 9 shows the logic for determining the evacuation destination for people staying in facility A in zone 1. The plan calculation unit 13 determines whether the evacuees in zone 1 can move to zone 4 on their own by referring to their attributes (e.g., self-evacuation, notes, and walking speed coefficient in FIG. 4) (step S21). For example, if the evacuees can evacuate on their own, and the travel time obtained by dividing the distance from zone 1 to zone 4 by the evacuees' travel speed is less than or equal to the travel time T3 set in the constraints (constraint equation (a8)), and if the evacuees stay at facility D in zone 4, the number of people that facility D can accommodate is not exceeded, the plan calculation unit 13 determines that the evacuees can evacuate from zone 1 to zone 4 on their own. Furthermore, even if this condition is satisfied, if facility D does not have the facilities required by the evacuee, it may be determined that the evacuee is unable to evacuate from zone 1 to zone 4 on his / her own. The movement speed of the evacuee is calculated by, for example, multiplying a predetermined standard walking speed by the individual's speed coefficient (the value of the walking speed coefficient (without assistance) in FIG. 4) in the case of walking. The plan calculation unit 13 performs this determination for each evacuee and determines the evacuees who can move to zone 4 on their own (step S22). The plan calculation unit 13 also calculates the movement risk of the evacuee using the above formula (1). If it is determined that the evacuee can move to zone 4, it calculates the risk of the evacuee staying in zone 4. The risk of the evacuee staying there may be calculated using a predetermined function, for example, assuming a one-day stay, or a constant may be set according to the attributes of the evacuee (for example, in the case of facility D, the risk of the evacuee staying there per day may be set to "10", and for wheelchair-using evacuees, the risk of the evacuee staying there per day may be further increased by "10").

[0033] Next, the plan calculation unit 13 determines whether each evacuee determined to be unable to move on their own can move from Zone 1 to Zone 4 with assistance (step S23). First, the plan calculation unit 13 refers to the evaluation results of the movement characteristics in step S5 and arbitrarily sets the amount of support resources to be input within a range equal to or less than the maximum amount of effective support resources input. For example, it is set that two welfare vehicles, one passenger car, one bus, and five supporters will be used for movement from Zone 1 to Zone 4. Then, the plan calculation unit 13 simulates movement from Zone 1 to Zone 4, assuming that, among the target evacuees, evacuees using wheelchairs such as elderly people and injured people are moved in welfare vehicles and the other evacuees are moved by bus or passenger car, and calculates the number of evacuees who can move within the time limit T3. In this way, the plan calculation unit 13 arbitrarily sets the amount of input support resources to be used for movement to Zone 4 (step S24) and determines the evacuees who can move to Zone 4 under that condition (step S25). In this case, too, the plan calculation unit 13 calculates the movement risk and the stay risk for each evacuee. Although the explanation will be omitted below, the plan calculation unit 13 calculates the movement risk associated with the movement and the stay risk at the destination each time an evacuee moves in the process of calculating the evacuation plan.

[0034] Next, the plan calculation unit 13 determines whether each evacuee who is determined to be unable to move to zone 4 even with assistance can move to zone 2 or zone 3 by themselves, in the same manner as in step S21 (step S26). The plan calculation unit 13 performs this determination for each evacuee and determines the evacuees who can move to zone 2 or zone 3 by themselves (step S27). Next, the plan calculation unit 13 sets the amount of support resources (e.g., two passenger cars) to be invested for movement from zone 1 to zone 2 or zone 3, with reference to the evaluation result of the movement characteristics in step S5 (step S28). Then, the plan calculation unit 13 calculates the number of evacuees who cannot move by themselves and can move from zone 1 to zone 2 or zone 3 by passenger cars within the time limit T1 (constraint equation (a6)) or the time limit T2 (constraint equation (a7)), and determines the evacuees who can move to zone 2 or zone 3 (step S29). This calculates an evacuation plan for zone 1 in which two welfare vehicles, one passenger car, and one bus are used for movement from zone 1 to zone 4, and two passenger cars are used for movement from zone 1 to zone 2 or zone 3. The plan calculation unit 13 also calculates evacuation plans for movement from zones 2 and 3 to zones 4 and 5, on the condition that the support resources set in the above processing for the evacuees in zone 1 have already been allocated and therefore cannot be used.

[0035] FIG. 10 shows the logic for determining the evacuation destinations of evacuees staying in zones 2 and 3. The plan calculation unit 13 determines whether the evacuees in zone 2 or 3 can move to the distant zone 5 on their own, based on the attributes of the evacuees (step S31). The determination method is the same as the method described in FIG. 9. The plan calculation unit 13 makes a determination for each evacuee and determines which evacuees can move to zone 5 on their own (step S32). Next, the plan calculation unit 13 determines whether evacuees in zone 2 or 3 who cannot move to zone 5 on their own can move to zone 4 on their own (step S33). The plan calculation unit 13 makes this determination for each evacuee and determines which evacuees can move to zone 4 on their own (step S34). Next, for each evacuee determined to be unable to move to zones 4 and 5 on their own, the plan calculation unit 13 determines whether they can move to zone 4 with assistance (step S35). Specifically, the type and input amount of support resources to be used for movement from zone 2 or zone 3 to zone 4 are set (step S36), and evacuees who can move to zone 4 under those conditions are determined (step S37). For evacuees who cannot move to zone 4, evacuees in zone 2 will continue to wait in zone 2, and evacuees in zone 3 will continue to wait in zone 3, and the plan calculation unit 13 determines the evacuees who will wait in zone 2 and the evacuees who will wait in zone 3 (step S38).

[0036] Similarly, the plan calculation unit 13 calculates an evacuation plan for movement from zone 4 to zone 5. Figure 11 shows the logic for determining the evacuation destination for people staying in zone 4. The plan calculation unit 13 determines whether or not evacuees in zone 4 can move to the distant zone 5 on their own, based on the attributes of the evacuees present in zone 4 (step S41). The plan calculation unit 13 makes this determination for each evacuee in zone 4, and determines the evacuees who can move to zone 5 on their own (step S42). Next, the plan calculation unit 13 determines whether or not each evacuee in zone 4 who cannot move to zone 5 on their own can move to zone 5 with assistance (step S43). Specifically, From the remaining support resources excluding the support resources to be deployed for the evacuees in zones 1 to 3, the type and amount of support resources to be used for movement from zone 4 to zone 5 are set (step S44), and the evacuees who can move to zone 5 under those conditions are determined (step S45). For evacuees who cannot move to zone 5, the evacuees in zone 4 are left to wait in zone 4, and the plan calculation unit 13 determines the evacuees who will wait in zone 4 (step S46).

[0037] The plan calculation unit 13 repeatedly executes various combinations of the execution order of the destination determination logic for each zone described with reference to Figures 9 to 11. For example, the plan calculation unit 13 arbitrarily sets the amount of support resource input used for movement from zone 1 to zone 4 and the amount of support resource input from zone 1 to zones 2 and 3 within a range not exceeding Ca in Figure 7A and Cb in Figure 7B, respectively, to execute the destination determination logic for zone 1 in Figure 9, arbitrarily sets the amount of support resource input used for movement from zones 2 and 3 to zone 4 from the remaining support resources, to execute the destination determination logic for zones 2 and 3 in Figure 10, and arbitrarily sets the amount of support resource input used for movement from zone 4 to zone 5 from the remaining support resources, to execute the destination determination logic for zone 4 in Figure 11, repeatedly executing this process while changing the amount of support resource input used for movement between each zone in various ways, and calculates a support resource input method that can move all evacuees in zone 1 to other zones and the destinations of each evacuee while satisfying the constraints of (Equation a1) to (A10). At first glance, it may seem that using more buses and cars to move evacuees from Zone 1 to Zone 4 would ensure a more reliable transfer of evacuees from Zone 1 to Zone 4, but depending on the distance between Zone 1 and Zone 4 and the traffic conditions along the way, this could actually tie up buses and cars for longer periods of time, delaying the evacuation of everyone. By simulating a large number of movement patterns while varying the amount of support resources used for movement between each zone, it is possible to explore methods that, for example, would allow the movement of evacuees from Zone 1 to Zone 2 to be completed more quickly.

[0038] Furthermore, for example, in order to consider an evacuation plan that maximizes the number of evacuees moving from zone 1 to zone 4, the plan calculation unit 13 first executes the destination determination logic for zone 4 (Figure 11) to increase the available space in zone 4, then executes the destination determination logic for zone 1 (Figure 9), and finally executes the destination determination logic for zones 2 and 3 (Figure 10) repeatedly while varying the amount of support resources used for movement between each zone, and calculates a method of investing support resources that will allow all evacuees in zone 1 to move to other zones while satisfying the constraints of (Equation a1) to (a10), and the destinations of each evacuee. Furthermore, for example, the plan calculation unit 13 first executes the destination determination logic for zone 4 (FIG. 11) to increase the vacancy in zone 4, then executes the destination determination logic for zones 2 and 3 (FIG. 10), and finally executes the destination determination logic for zone 1 (FIG. 9) repeatedly while varying the amount of support resources used for movement between each zone, and calculates a method of inputting support resources that can move all evacuees in zone 1 to other zones and the destinations of each evacuee while satisfying the constraints of (Equation a1) to (a10). Similarly, the plan calculation unit 13 repeatedly executes the destination determination logic for each zone in the order of FIGS. 10, 11, and 9, in the order of FIGS. 10, 9, and 11, and in the order of FIGS. 9, 11, and 10 while varying the amount of support resources used for movement between each zone, and calculates a method of inputting support resources that can move all evacuees in zone 1 to other zones and the destinations of each evacuee while satisfying the constraints of Equation a1 to (a10). Then, for example, in step S7, if (b2) the evacuation strategy is set to move all evacuees in zone 1 to other zones while minimizing the total amount of support resources to be deployed, the plan calculation unit 13 selects, from the calculated evacuation plans (method of deploying support resources, destination facilities for each evacuee, and movement route for each evacuee), an evacuation plan that minimizes the total amount of support resources to be deployed for movement between zones, and stores the selected evacuation plan in the storage unit 15. This provides an evacuation plan that minimizes the use of support resources and enables evacuees in the most dangerous zone 1 to evacuate to other zones.Similarly, if (b3) is set as an evacuation strategy, all evacuees in zone 1 can be moved to other zones, and an evacuation plan that minimizes the total travel time can be obtained. If (b5) is set, all evacuees in zone 1 can be moved to other zones, and an evacuation plan that minimizes the total travel risk of all evacuees can be obtained.

[0039] Next, the plan calculation unit 13 determines whether there are surplus support resources available as a result of executing the evacuation plan that satisfies the conditions selected in step S9 (step S10). For example, if a time constraint is set for movement from zones 2 and 3 (constraint equations (a9) and (a10)), and if support resources cannot be deployed to zones 2 and 3 within the time constraint when the evacuation plan selected in step S9 is executed, the plan calculation unit 13 determines that there are no surplus support resources. If there are no surplus support resources (step S10; No), the output unit 14 outputs the evacuation plan selected in step S9 to a display device or the like (step S12). The evacuation plan includes information on how much and what type of support resources will be deployed for movement between zones, information on the destinations of each evacuee, and information on the movement routes if there are multiple routes between zones.

[0040] If there are surplus support resources (step S10; No), the plan calculation unit 13 then calculates an evacuation plan from zones 2 and 3, which are temporary evacuation destinations, to zones 4 and 5, which are safer evacuation destinations (step S11). For example, the plan calculation unit 13 allocates surplus support resources and, using the distribution of evacuees in each zone based on the execution result of the evacuation plan selected in step S9 as an initial condition, repeatedly executes the destination determination logic of FIG. 10 while varying the amount of support resources used for movement between each zone, to calculate an evacuation plan from zones 2 and 3 to zone 4 or zone 5. For example, if (b2) is set as the evacuation strategy, the plan calculation unit 13 selects an evacuation plan that minimizes the total amount of support resources input. Next, the output unit 14 outputs the evacuation plans selected in steps S9 and S11 to a display device or the like (step S12).

[0041] (effect) As described above, according to this embodiment, it is possible to create an evacuation plan that takes into account the capacity of the evacuation destination and the difficulty of evacuation (whether self-evacuation is possible, the type of support resources required, travel time when self-evacuating, travel time when support resources are deployed, travel risks, risk of staying, etc.). As a result, even if an evacuation plan considered during normal times cannot be executed, it is possible to calculate an evacuation plan that can at least evacuate evacuees staying in the most dangerous zone 1 to other safer zones, depending on the evacuation destination's acceptance status at the time, the status of available support resources, the attributes of each evacuee, etc. Furthermore, assuming that movement from zone 1 has been completed, zones 2 and 3 can be applied to zone 1 and the processing flow of FIG. 2 can be executed to calculate evacuation plans from zones 2 and 3, which are temporary evacuation destinations.

[0042] 12 is a diagram illustrating an example of the hardware configuration of an evacuation plan creation device according to an embodiment. A computer 900 includes a CPU 901, a main storage device 902, an auxiliary storage device 903, an input / output interface 904, and a communication interface 905. The above-described evacuation plan creation device 10 is implemented in the computer 900. The above-described functions are stored in the auxiliary storage device 903 in the form of a program. The CPU 901 reads the program from the auxiliary storage device 903, loads it into the main storage device 902, and executes the above-described processing in accordance with the program. The CPU 901 also allocates a storage area in the main storage device 902 in accordance with the program. The CPU 901 also allocates a storage area in the auxiliary storage device 903 for storing data being processed in accordance with the program.

[0043] A program for implementing all or part of the functions of the evacuation plan creation device 10 may be recorded on a computer-readable recording medium, and the program may be loaded into a computer system and executed to perform processing by each functional unit. The term "computer system" as used herein includes hardware such as an OS and peripheral devices. Furthermore, if a WWW system is used, the term "computer system" also includes a homepage provision environment (or display environment). Furthermore, the term "computer-readable recording medium" refers to portable media such as CDs, DVDs, and USBs, as well as storage devices such as hard disks built into the computer system. Furthermore, if the program is distributed to the computer 900 via a communication line, the computer 900 that receives the program may load the program into the main storage device 902 and execute the above-described processing. Furthermore, the program may be for implementing part of the above-described functions, or may be capable of implementing the above-described functions in combination with a program already stored in the computer system.

[0044] As described above, several embodiments according to the present disclosure have been described, but all of these embodiments are presented as examples and are not intended to limit the scope of the invention. These embodiments can be implemented in various other forms, and various omissions, substitutions, and modifications can be made without departing from the spirit of the invention. These embodiments and their modifications are included in the scope of the invention and its equivalents as defined in the claims, as well as in the scope and spirit of the invention.

[0045] <Additional Notes> The evacuation plan creation method, evacuation plan creation device, and program described in each embodiment can be understood, for example, as follows.

[0046] (1) The evacuation plan creation method according to the first aspect includes the steps of: a step (S1) of setting the capacity of a first zone (Zone 1) that is a place where evacuation should be given the highest priority; a step (S2) of setting the capacity of a second zone (Zone 2, Zone 3) that is a place that can be used as a temporary evacuation destination; a step (S3) of setting the number and attributes of evacuees who will be staying in the first zone at the start of evacuation; a step (S4) of setting the number and attributes of evacuees who will be staying in the second zone; and a step (S5) of setting the type and quantity of support resources that can be used to support movement from the first zone to the second zone or the third zone and to support movement from the second zone to the third zone; and (S9) calculating the evacuation costs (travel risk and stay risk) of each of the evacuees staying in the first zone and the second zone based on the attributes of each of the evacuees staying in the first zone and the third zone and the available support resources, and calculating the types and quantities of the evacuees moving from the first zone to the second zone and the support resources required for their evacuation, the types and quantities of the evacuees moving from the first zone to the third zone and the support resources required for their evacuation, and the types and quantities of the evacuees moving from the second zone to the third zone and the support resources required for their evacuation, so that the evacuation costs satisfy predetermined constraints and the evacuation destination is selected so that it does not exceed the acceptance capacity, and so that predetermined evacuation strategy conditions are satisfied. This makes it possible to create an evacuation plan that selects a safe evacuation destination, taking into account the destination's capacity and the difficulty of evacuation.

[0047] (2) The second aspect of the evacuation plan creation method is the evacuation plan creation method of (1), wherein the evacuation costs are the time required for the travel, the risks associated with traveling to the destination, and the burden associated with staying there after the travel. This makes it possible to calculate evacuation plans by imposing constraints on travel time, travel risk, and stay risk.

[0048] (3) The third aspect of the evacuation plan creation method is the evacuation plan creation method of (1) to (2), in which no evacuees remain in the first zone and the amount of support resources invested is minimized. This makes it possible to calculate an evacuation plan that minimizes the amount of support resources required.

[0049] (4) The fourth aspect of the evacuation plan creation method is the evacuation plan creation method of any of (1) to (3), in which no evacuees remain in the first zone and the time required for the movement is minimized. This allows for the calculation of an evacuation plan that minimizes travel time.

[0050] (5) The fifth aspect of the evacuation plan creation method is the evacuation plan creation method of any one of (1) to (4), wherein the predetermined evacuation strategy condition is that no evacuees remain in the first zone and that the risks associated with the movement are minimized. This allows for the calculation of evacuation plans that minimize travel risks, such as radiation exposure.

[0051] (6) The sixth aspect of the evacuation plan creation method is the evacuation plan creation method of any one of (1) to (5), wherein the predetermined evacuation strategy condition is that no evacuees remain in the first zone and the number of evacuees moving from the first zone to the third zone is maximized. This allows us to calculate an evacuation plan that maximizes the number of evacuees evacuating from Zone 1 to Zone 4.

[0052] (7) The evacuation plan creation method according to the seventh aspect is the evacuation plan creation method of (1) to (6), wherein the step of setting the capacity further sets a fourth zone (zone 5) located farther from the first zone than the third zone and its capacity, and the step of calculating further calculates the evacuees moving from the second zone or the third zone to the fourth zone and the type and quantity of the support resources required for the evacuation. This will increase the amount of space in zones such as zone 4, increasing the number of evacuees that can be accepted from zone 1, and creating an evacuation plan that will ensure that evacuees from zone 1 can be moved to other zones.

[0053] (8) The evacuation plan creation method according to the eighth aspect is the evacuation plan creation method of (1) to (7), wherein in the calculating step, a distinction is made between evacuees who can move from the first zone to the second zone or the third zone on their own and evacuees who cannot move on their own, and for the evacuees who cannot move on their own, the evacuation cost when the support resources are used is calculated. By dividing people into those who can evacuate on their own and those who need assistance, the amount of assistance resources can be calculated accurately.

[0054] (9) An evacuation plan creation device according to a ninth aspect includes a first zone, which is a place where evacuation should be given the highest priority, a second zone, which is a place that can be used as a temporary evacuation destination, and a third zone, which is a place that can be used as a final evacuation destination; a means for setting the capacity of each of the first zone, the second zone, the third zone, and the third zone; a means for setting the number and attributes of evacuees who will be staying in the first zone at the start of evacuation, the number and attributes of evacuees who will be staying in the second zone, and the number and attributes of evacuees who will be staying in the third zone; a means for setting the type and quantity of support resources that can be used to support movement from the first zone to the second zone or the third zone and to support movement from the second zone to the third zone; and a means for setting the type and quantity of support resources that can be used to support movement from the first zone to the second zone or the third zone and to support movement from the second zone to the third zone. and a means for calculating the types and quantities of the evacuees moving from the first zone to the second zone and the support resources required for their evacuation, the types and quantities of the evacuees moving from the first zone to the third zone and the support resources required for their evacuation, and the types and quantities of the evacuees moving from the second zone to the third zone and the support resources required for their evacuation, so that the evacuation cost satisfies predetermined constraints and the evacuation destination is selected so that it does not exceed the acceptance capacity, and so that predetermined evacuation strategy conditions are satisfied.

[0055] (10) A program according to a tenth aspect includes the steps of setting a first zone, which is a place where evacuation should be given the highest priority, a second zone, which is a place that can be used as a temporary evacuation destination, and a third zone, which is a place that can be used as a final evacuation destination, and their respective acceptance capacities in the computer 900; setting the number and attributes of evacuees who will be staying in the first zone at the start of evacuation, the number and attributes of evacuees who will be staying in the second zone, and the number and attributes of evacuees who will be staying in the third zone; setting the types and quantities of support resources that can be used to support movement from the first zone to the second zone or the third zone and to support movement from the second zone to the third zone; The system executes the steps of: calculating the evacuation costs for each of the evacuees staying in the first zone and the second zone based on the attributes of each of the evacuees staying in the first zone and the third zone and the available support resources; and calculating the types and quantities of the evacuees moving from the first zone to the second zone and the support resources required for their evacuation, the types and quantities of the evacuees moving from the first zone to the third zone and the support resources required for their evacuation, and the types and quantities of the evacuees moving from the second zone to the third zone and the support resources required for their evacuation, so that the evacuation costs satisfy predetermined constraints and the evacuation destination is selected so that it does not exceed the acceptance capacity, and so that predetermined evacuation strategy conditions are satisfied. [Explanation of symbols]

[0056] 10. Evacuation plan creation device 11. Data acquisition section 12 Input reception section 13. Planning Calculation Section 14. Output section 15...Storage section 900···Computer 901 CPU 902...Main memory 903...Auxiliary storage device 904 Input / Output Interface 905···Communication Interface

Claims

1. A step in which a computer sets a first zone, which is a place where evacuation should be given top priority, a second zone, which is a place that can be used as a temporary evacuation destination, and a third zone, which is a place that can be used as a final evacuation destination, and the acceptance capacity of each; a step in which the computer sets the number and attributes of evacuees staying in the first zone, the number and attributes of evacuees staying in the second zone, and the number and attributes of evacuees staying in the third zone at the start of evacuation; A step in which the computer sets the type and quantity of assistance resources that can be used to assist in movement from the first zone to the second zone or the third zone and to assist in movement from the second zone to the third zone; The computer calculates an evacuation cost, which is the cost required for evacuation, for each of the evacuees staying in the first zone and the second zone based on the attributes of each of the evacuees staying in the first zone, the second zone, and the third zone and the available support resources, and calculates the types and quantities of the evacuees moving from the first zone to the second zone and the support resources required for their evacuation, the types and quantities of the evacuees moving from the first zone to the third zone and the support resources required for their evacuation, and the types and quantities of the evacuees moving from the second zone to the third zone and the support resources required for their evacuation, so that the evacuation cost satisfies predetermined constraints and the evacuation destination is selected so that it does not exceed the acceptance capacity, and so that predetermined evacuation strategy conditions are satisfied; A method for creating an evacuation plan.

2. The evacuation costs include the time required for the travel, the risks associated with travelling to the destination, and the burden associated with staying there after travelling. The evacuation plan creation method according to claim 1 .

3. The predetermined evacuation strategy condition is: No evacuees remain in the first zone, and the amount of support resources required is minimized. The evacuation plan creation method according to claim 1 or 2.

4. The predetermined evacuation strategy condition is: The evacuees are not left in the first zone, and the time required for the movement is minimized. The evacuation plan creation method according to claim 1 or 2.

5. The predetermined evacuation strategy condition is: The evacuees do not remain in the first zone, and the risks associated with the movement are minimized. The evacuation plan creation method according to claim 1 or 2.

6. The predetermined evacuation strategy condition is: No evacuees remain in the first zone, and the number of evacuees moving from the first zone to the third zone is maximized. The evacuation plan creation method according to claim 1 or 2.

7. In the step of setting the receiving capacity, the computer further sets a fourth zone located farther from the first zone than the third zone and its receiving capacity, In the calculating step, the computer further calculates the evacuees who will move from the second zone or the third zone to the fourth zone, and the types and quantities of the support resources required for the evacuation. The evacuation plan creation method according to claim 1 or 2.

8. In the calculating step, the computer distinguishes between the evacuees who can move from the first zone to the second zone or the third zone by themselves and the evacuees who cannot move by themselves, and calculates the evacuation cost when the support resource is used for the evacuees who cannot move by themselves. The evacuation plan creation method according to claim 1 .

9. a first zone which is a place where evacuation should be given top priority, a second zone which is a place that can be used as a temporary evacuation destination, a third zone which is a place that can be used as a final evacuation destination, and a means for setting the acceptance capacity of each; a means for setting the number and attributes of evacuees staying in the first zone, the number and attributes of evacuees staying in the second zone, and the number and attributes of evacuees staying in the third zone at the start of evacuation; a means for setting the type and quantity of assistance resources that can be used to assist movement from the first zone to the second zone or the third zone and to assist movement from the second zone to the third zone; a means for calculating an evacuation cost, which is the cost required for evacuation, for each of the evacuees staying in the first zone and the second zone based on the attributes of each of the evacuees staying in the first zone, the second zone, and the third zone and the available support resources, and calculating the types and quantities of the evacuees moving from the first zone to the second zone and the support resources required for their evacuation, the types and quantities of the evacuees moving from the first zone to the third zone and the support resources required for their evacuation, and the types and quantities of the evacuees moving from the second zone to the third zone and the support resources required for their evacuation, so that the evacuation cost satisfies predetermined constraints and the evacuation destination is selected so that it does not exceed the acceptance capacity, and so that predetermined evacuation strategy conditions are satisfied; An evacuation plan creation device having the above.

10. On the computer, a step of setting the acceptance capacities of a first zone, which is a place where evacuation should be given top priority, a second zone, which is a place that can be used as a temporary evacuation destination, and a third zone, which is a place that can be used as a final evacuation destination; a step of setting the number and attributes of evacuees staying in the first zone, the number and attributes of evacuees staying in the second zone, and the number and attributes of evacuees staying in the third zone at the start of evacuation; setting the type and quantity of assistance resources that can be used to assist in movement from the first zone to the second zone or the third zone and to assist in movement from the second zone to the third zone; a step of calculating an evacuation cost, which is the cost required for evacuation, for each of the evacuees staying in the first zone and the second zone based on the attributes of each of the evacuees staying in the first zone, the second zone, and the third zone and the available support resources, and calculating the types and quantities of the evacuees moving from the first zone to the second zone and the support resources required for their evacuation, the types and quantities of the evacuees moving from the first zone to the third zone and the support resources required for their evacuation, and the types and quantities of the evacuees moving from the second zone to the third zone and the support resources required for their evacuation, so that the evacuation cost satisfies predetermined constraints and the evacuation destination is selected so that it does not exceed the acceptance capacity, and so that predetermined evacuation strategy conditions are satisfied; A program that executes the following.

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