Prediction device

Abstract

A prediction device (10) predicts the timing for switching the type of a solid fuel that is supplied from a storage part (20) to a combustion device (40), via a supply device (30). The prediction device (10) comprises: an acquisition unit (11) that acquires the level of a solid fuel stored in the storage part (20); and a prediction unit (13) that predicts, as a switching timing, a future timing when a level reaches a threshold, the level obtained by extrapolating the changes over time in the decrease of the level of the solid fuel.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present disclosure relates to a prediction device.

Background Art

[0002] There is known a combustion device that continuously switches the type of solid fuel to be burned. For example, Patent Document 1 describes a combustion device that continuously switches between a biomass fuel and a coal fuel. The invention described in Patent Document 1 changes the operating conditions of the fuel crusher according to the mixing ratio of the biomass fuel and the coal fuel. In the invention described in Patent Document 1, it is a condition that the bulk density of each solid fuel can be clearly distinguished.

Prior Art Documents

Patent Documents

[0003]

Patent Document 1

Summary of the Invention

Problems to be Solved by the Invention

[0004] When the type of solid fuel is switched, the operating conditions of the combustion device fluctuate. For example, when a low-quality solid fuel or a new solid fuel starts to burn, the operating conditions such as the temperature inside the combustion device fluctuate. Therefore, it is necessary to monitor the operating conditions of the combustion device before and after the time when the type of solid fuel is switched. However, since there is a time difference from when the solid fuel is stored until it burns, it has been difficult to predict the time when the type of solid fuel is switched.

[0005] The present disclosure describes a technique capable of predicting the time when the type of solid fuel supplied to a combustion device is switched.

Means for Solving the Problems

[0006] A prediction device relating to one aspect of this disclosure predicts the switching time of the type of solid fuel supplied from a storage unit to a combustion unit via a supply device. The prediction device comprises an acquisition unit that acquires the level of solid fuel stored in the storage unit, and a prediction unit that predicts the future time when the level, extrapolated from the temporal change in the decrease of the solid fuel level, reaches a threshold, as the switching time. [Effects of the Invention]

[0007] This disclosure provides a technology that can predict the time at which the type of solid fuel supplied to a combustion device changes. [Brief explanation of the drawing]

[0008] [Figure 1] Figure 1 is a block diagram illustrating the configuration of the prediction system 1 according to the embodiment. [Figure 2] Figure 2 is a graph showing an example of the change in solid fuel levels over time. [Figure 3] Figure 3 is a graph showing an example of the change in gas temperature over time. [Figure 4] Figure 4 is a graph showing an example of the change in the concentration of a chemical substance over time. [Figure 5] Figure 5 shows an example of a screen displaying the time-dependent changes in solid fuel levels and the switching time. [Figure 6] Figure 6 is a flowchart showing an example of the operation of the prediction device. [Figure 7] Figure 7 shows an example of a hardware configuration related to the prediction system. [Modes for carrying out the invention]

[0009] A prediction device relating to one aspect of this disclosure predicts the switching time of the type of solid fuel supplied from a storage unit to a combustion unit via a supply device. The prediction device comprises an acquisition unit that acquires the level of solid fuel stored in the storage unit, and a prediction unit that predicts the future time when the level, extrapolated from the temporal change in the decrease of the solid fuel level, reaches a threshold, as the switching time.

[0010] In the prediction device, the switching time for the type of solid fuel is predicted using a threshold value and a level extrapolated from the decrease in the solid fuel level. In the storage unit, the solid fuel level fluctuates because solid fuel is added and removed. In the prediction device of this disclosure, the solid fuel level is supplemented by a level extrapolated from the decrease in the solid fuel level. This makes it possible to predict the rate at which the solid fuel level decreases, even if various types of solid fuel are added to the storage unit. As a result, the accuracy of predicting the switching time is improved.

[0011] The acquisition unit may acquire the temperature of the gas supplied to the supply device. The prediction device may further include a determination unit that determines a threshold based on the time at which the trend of the gas temperature changes and a level extrapolated from the temporal change in the level of the solid fuel. With such a configuration, the relationship between the change in the trend of the gas temperature and the level extrapolated from the level of the solid fuel is reflected in the determination of the threshold. This improves the accuracy of the threshold for identifying the switching time. As a result, the prediction accuracy of the switching time is improved.

[0012] The acquisition unit may acquire the concentration of chemical substances generated by the combustion of solid fuel. The prediction device may further include a determination unit that determines a threshold based on the time at which the trend of chemical substance concentration changes and a level extrapolated from the temporal change in the level of solid fuel. With such a configuration, the relationship between the change in the trend of chemical substance concentration and the level extrapolated from the level of solid fuel decline is reflected in the determination of the threshold. This improves the accuracy of the threshold for identifying the switching time. As a result, the time at which the type of solid fuel supplied to the combustion device changes can be predicted with high accuracy.

[0013] The prediction device may further include an output unit that displays the switching time on a display device. This improves convenience for users or operators who use the switching time.

[0014] The acquisition unit may acquire the level of solid fuel for each of a plurality of units each including a storage unit and a supply device. The prediction unit may predict, as a switching time, a future time when a level obtained by extrapolating the temporal change in the decrease of the level of solid fuel for each of the plurality of units reaches a threshold value. According to such a configuration, the switching time is predicted for each of the plurality of units. Thereby, the prediction accuracy of the switching time in the plurality of units can be improved. In addition, the cost of monitoring the plurality of units can be reduced.

[0015] Hereinafter, embodiments for implementing the present disclosure will be described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings. In the description of the drawings, the same reference numerals are assigned to the same elements, and overlapping descriptions are omitted.

[0016] The prediction system according to the present disclosure is applied to, for example, a thermal power generation system. The thermal power generation system stores solid fuel. Examples of the solid fuel include coal or biomass fuel. The thermal power generation system dries and pulverizes the solid fuel. The thermal power generation system supplies the pulverized solid fuel to a combustion device such as a boiler for combustion. The combustion device supplies the generated steam to a steam turbine. The steam is used for power generation. The prediction system predicts the switching time of the type of solid fuel supplied to the combustion device.

[0017] FIG. 1 is a block diagram illustrating the configuration of a prediction system 1 according to an embodiment. The prediction system 1 includes a prediction device 10, a storage unit 20, a supply device 30, a combustion device 40, a power generation device 50, a gas treatment unit 60, a first measurement device 70, a second measurement device 80, and a third measurement device 90. The prediction system 1 may include a plurality of units each including a storage unit 20 and a supply device 30.

[0018] The storage unit 20 is a cylindrical container for storing solid fuel. One end 20A of the storage unit 20 is the inlet for the solid fuel. The other end 20B of the storage unit 20 is the outlet for the solid fuel. The diameter at one end 20A of the storage unit 20 is larger than the diameter at the other end 20B of the storage unit. For example, the storage unit 20 includes a cylindrical tube portion 21 and a conical taper portion 22 that tapers towards the other end 20B of the storage unit 20.

[0019] The solid fuel is introduced from one end 20A of the storage unit 20 and accumulates within the storage unit 20. Hereinafter, the height of the solid fuel accumulated in the storage unit 20 is referred to as the "level of the solid fuel". Different types of solid fuel may be introduced into the storage unit 20 from the already stored solid fuel. As a result, different types of solid fuel accumulate in the storage unit 20. When solid fuel is introduced into the storage unit 20, the level of the solid fuel rises. The stored solid fuel is taken out from the other end 20B of the storage unit 20. The other end of the storage unit 20 is connected to the supply device 30. When solid fuel is taken out from the storage unit 20, the level of the solid fuel drops. If there is no input of solid fuel into the storage unit 20 or no removal of solid fuel from the storage unit 20, the level of the solid fuel does not change.

[0020] The supply device 30 supplies the solid fuel stored in the storage unit 20 to the combustion device 40. The supply device 30 includes a transporter 31 and a crusher 32.

[0021] The transporter 31 receives the solid fuel from the other end 20B of the storage unit 20 and supplies the solid fuel to the crusher 32. The transporter 31 is, for example, a gravimetric coal feeder. The transporter 31 detects the weight of the solid fuel using a load cell or the like. The transporter 31 transports a predetermined amount of solid fuel using a belt conveyor or the like and supplies the solid fuel to the crusher 32.

[0022] The crusher 32 dries and crushes the solid fuel. The crusher 32 is, for example, a pulverizer. A gas, such as high-temperature air, is supplied to the air inlet or port of the crusher 32. The crusher 32 dries the solid fuel using the supplied gas. The crusher 32 crushes the dried solid fuel. The dried and crushed solid fuel is blown up by the supplied gas and carried to the exhaust port or outlet of the crusher 32. The crusher 32 supplies the solid fuel to the combustion device 40 using the supplied gas.

[0023] During the drying and pulverizing process of the pulverizer 32, the properties and state of the solid fuel affect the temperature of the gas inside the pulverizer 32. For example, the humidity of the solid fuel fluctuates depending on the quality of the solid fuel, the season, or the weather. In the pulverizer 32, the temperature of the gas supplied to the pulverizer 32 is controlled to suppress fluctuations in the temperature of the gas at the exhaust port or outlet of the pulverizer 32.

[0024] The combustion device 40 burns the supplied solid fuel. The combustion device 40 is, for example, a boiler that generates steam by burning solid fuel. The combustion device 40 supplies the steam to the power generation device 50. In the combustion device 40, exhaust gas is generated by the combustion of the solid fuel. The combustion device 40 sends the exhaust gas to the gas processing unit 60.

[0025] The power generation device 50 generates electricity using steam. The power generation device 50 generates electricity using, for example, the rotational energy of a steam turbine that receives steam.

[0026] The gas processing unit 60 processes the exhaust gas. The gas processing unit 60 processes the exhaust gas using, for example, a flue gas denitrification device, a dust collector, and a flue gas desulfurization device. The exhaust gas is discharged into the air through the chimney.

[0027] The first measuring device 70 measures the level of solid fuel stored in the storage unit 20. The first measuring device 70 is, for example, an interface meter. The first measuring device 70 transmits the measured level of solid fuel to the prediction device 10.

[0028] The second measuring device 80 measures the temperature of the gas supplied to the supply device 30. More specifically, the second measuring device 80 measures the temperature of the gas supplied to the crusher 32 at the air inlet of the crusher 32. The second measuring device 80 is, for example, a thermometer. The second measuring device 80 transmits the measured gas temperature to the prediction device 10.

[0029] The third measuring device 90 measures the concentration of chemical substances generated by the combustion of solid fuel. The third measuring device 90 is, for example, a concentration meter. The third measuring device 90 measures the concentration of chemical substances in the exhaust gas discharged from the chimney of the gas processing unit 60. Examples of chemical substances include sulfur oxides (SOx), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and carbon monoxide (CO). The third measuring device 90 transmits the measured concentration of the chemical substances to the prediction device 10.

[0030] The prediction device 10 predicts the switching time for the type of solid fuel supplied from the storage unit 20 to the combustion unit 40 via the supply device 30. The type and configuration of the prediction device 10 are not limited. For example, the prediction device 10 may be a personal computer, a high-function mobile phone (smartphone), a tablet terminal, or a wearable terminal. The prediction device 10 comprises an acquisition unit 11, a determination unit 12, a prediction unit 13, and an output unit 14 as functional elements.

[0031] The acquisition unit 11 acquires the level of solid fuel stored in the storage unit 20. For example, the acquisition unit 11 receives the level of solid fuel from the first measuring device 70. The acquisition unit 11 acquires the temperature of the gas supplied to the supply device 30. For example, the acquisition unit 11 receives the temperature of the gas from the second measuring device 80. The acquisition unit 11 acquires the concentration of chemical substances generated by the combustion of solid fuel. For example, the acquisition unit 11 receives the concentration of chemical substances from the third measuring device 90.

[0032] The determination unit 12 determines a threshold value for the solid fuel level. In this embodiment, it is determined that when the solid fuel level drops and reaches the threshold value, the type of solid fuel supplied to the combustion device 40 is switched. The determination unit 12 determines the threshold value using the level obtained by extrapolating the change in the solid fuel level over time, and at least one of the gas temperature and the concentration of the chemical substance. The determination unit 12 may store the predetermined threshold value in a predetermined storage device.

[0033] The prediction unit 13 predicts the time for switching between types of solid fuel. For example, the prediction unit 13 predicts the future time when the level obtained by extrapolating the temporal change in the decrease of the solid fuel level reaches a threshold as the switching time.

[0034] The output unit 14 outputs the switching time. For example, the output unit 14 displays the switching time on the display device of the prediction device 10 or on an external display device.

[0035] An example of the processing of the determination unit 12 will be explained with reference to Figures 2 to 4. In Figures 2 to 4, the prediction system 1 is described as comprising a plurality of units A, B, C, D, E and F, each including a storage unit 20 and a supply device 30. Each of the plurality of units A, B, C, D, E and F is equipped with a bunker as the storage unit 20. Each of the plurality of units A, B, C, D, E and F is equipped with a pulverizer as the crusher 32.

[0036] Figure 2 is a graph showing an example of the change in solid fuel levels over time. In Figure 2, the horizontal axis represents time, and the vertical axis represents the level [%] of the solid fuel level in storage unit 20. "BNKR-A LVL" shows the solid fuel level in bunker unit A. "BNKR-B LVL" shows the solid fuel level in bunker unit B. "BNKR-C LVL" shows the solid fuel level in bunker unit C. "BNKR-D "LVL" indicates the level of solid fuel in the bunker of unit D. "BNKR-E LVL" indicates the level of solid fuel in the bunker of unit E. "BNKR-F LVL" indicates the level of solid fuel in the bunker of unit F. Figure 2 shows level L1, which is an extrapolation of the decrease in the level of solid fuel in the bunker of unit D.

[0037] Figure 3 is a graph showing an example of the change in gas temperature over time. In Figure 3, the horizontal axis represents time and the vertical axis represents temperature [°C]. "MILL-A PA TEMP" shows the temperature of the gas supplied to the pulverizer of unit A. "MILL-B PA TEMP" shows the temperature of the gas supplied to the pulverizer of unit B. "MILL-C PA TEMP" shows the temperature of the gas supplied to the pulverizer of unit C. "MILL-D PA TEMP" shows the temperature of the gas supplied to the pulverizer of unit D. "MILL-E PA TEMP" shows the temperature of the gas supplied to the pulverizer of unit E. "MILL-F PA TEMP" shows the temperature of the gas supplied to the pulverizer of unit F.

[0038] Figure 4 is a graph showing an example of the change in the concentration of a chemical substance over time. In Figure 4, the horizontal axis represents time, and the vertical axis represents concentration [mg / Nm³]. 3 Figure 4 shows the changes in the concentrations of sulfur dioxide (SO2), NOx, and CO over time, as examples of SOx. "STCK SO2" indicates the concentration of SO2. "STCK NOx" indicates the concentration of NOx. "STCK CO" indicates the concentration of CO.

[0039] In one example, the determination unit 12 detects the time at which the trend of the gas temperature changes. For example, the determination unit 12 detects the time at which the change in the gas temperature over time changes from constant to increasing or decreasing. Before time t shown in Figure 3, the temperature of the gas supplied to the pulverizer of unit D is approximately constant. After time t, the temperature of the gas supplied to the pulverizer of unit D changes to a decreasing trend. The determination unit 12 detects the time t at which the trend of the change in the gas temperature over time changes for unit D. For example, the determination unit 12 may detect time t by the amount of fluctuation in the gas temperature within a predetermined time.

[0040] The determination unit 12 may determine the threshold based on the time t at which the trend of the gas temperature changes and the level extrapolated from the change in the level of the solid fuel over time. For example, the determination unit 12 may determine the extrapolated level as the threshold at time t. In one example, at time t shown in Figure 2, the extrapolated level L1 reaches the 30% level. The determination unit 12 determines the 30% level as the threshold T.

[0041] In another example, the determination unit 12 detects the time at which the trend of the chemical substance concentration changes. For example, the determination unit 12 detects the time at which the change in the concentration of the chemical substance over time changes from constant to increasing or decreasing. Before time t shown in Figure 4, the concentration of SO2 is approximately constant. After time t, the concentration of SO2 changes to an increasing trend. The determination unit 12 detects the time t at which the trend of the change in the concentration of SO2 over time changes. For example, the determination unit 12 may detect time t by the amount of change in the concentration of SO2 within a predetermined time.

[0042] The determination unit 12 may determine the threshold based on the time t at which the trend of the chemical substance concentration changes and the level extrapolated from the change in the level of the solid fuel over time. For example, the determination unit 12 may determine the extrapolated level as the threshold at time t. In one example, at time t shown in Figure 2, the extrapolated level L1 reaches 30%. The determination unit 12 determines the 30% level as the threshold T.

[0043] The determination unit 12 may detect time t based on both the trend in gas temperature and the trend in chemical concentration. For example, the determination unit 12 may detect time t when the temporal change in gas temperature and the temporal change in chemical concentration change from constant to increasing or decreasing. The determination unit 12 may determine a threshold based on time t when the trend in gas temperature and the trend in chemical concentration change, and a level extrapolated from the decrease in the solid fuel level. The determination unit 12 may calculate the extrapolated level for each unit. The threshold T may differ for each unit.

[0044] Referring to Figure 5, an example of the processing of the prediction unit 13 and the output unit 14 will be explained. Figure 5 shows an example of a screen that displays the change in the solid fuel level over time and the switching time. The output unit 14 displays screen P on, for example, the display device of the prediction device 10 or on an external display device. Screen P includes information provided to the user or operator of the prediction system 1. For example, screen P displays the level P1, the current time P2, the graph P3, the last input time P4, and the switching time P5.

[0045] Level P1 is the column that displays the current solid fuel level [%]. Current Time P2 is the column that displays the current time. Current Time P2 displays "11 Jan 2023 10:20:00". Graph P3 is a graph that shows the change in the solid fuel level over time. In Graph P3, the horizontal axis represents time, and the vertical axis represents the solid fuel level [%] in the storage unit 20. Last Loading Time P4 is the column that displays the time when solid fuel was loaded into the storage unit 20. Last Loading Time P4 displays "Jan 10 18:58". Switching Time P5 is the column that displays the predicted switching time. Switching Time P5 displays "Jan 11 14:24".

[0046] The prediction unit 13 calculates level L2 by extrapolating the time-dependent change in the decrease of solid fuel level using the solid fuel level after the final input time P4. For example, the prediction unit 13 calculates "Jan The extrapolated level L2 is calculated using the decrease in the solid fuel level from "10 18:58" onwards. The extrapolated level L2 may or may not be displayed on screen P. The prediction unit 13 predicts the future time when the extrapolated level L2 reaches the threshold T as the switching time. The prediction unit 13 predicts "Jan 11 14:24", which is the future time when the extrapolated level L2 and the threshold T2 intersect, as the switching time.

[0047] An example of how the prediction device 10 operates will be explained with reference to Figure 6. Figure 6 is a flowchart showing an example of the operation of the prediction device 10.

[0048] In step S1, the prediction device 10 acquires various data necessary for predicting the switching time. For example, the acquisition unit 11 receives the level of solid fuel from the first measuring device 70. The acquisition unit 11 receives the temperature of the gas from the second measuring device 80. The acquisition unit 11 receives the concentration of chemical substances from the third measuring device 90.

[0049] If a threshold for the solid fuel level has not been determined in step S2 (step S2: NO), the process proceeds to step S3. If a threshold for the solid fuel level has been determined (step S2: YES), the process proceeds to step S4. For example, the prediction device 10 may make the determination in step S2 based on whether a predetermined threshold is stored in a predetermined storage device.

[0050] In step S3, the prediction device 10 determines a threshold. For example, the determination unit 12 may determine the threshold based on the time at which the change in the temperature of the gas over time changes to an increasing or decreasing trend, and the level of the solid fuel. The determination unit 12 may determine the threshold based on the time at which the change in the concentration of the chemical substance over time changes to an increasing or decreasing trend, and the level of the solid fuel. The determination unit 12 may determine the threshold based on the time at which the change in the temperature of the gas over time and the change in the concentration of the chemical substance over time change to an increasing or decreasing trend, and the level of the solid fuel.

[0051] In step S4, the prediction device 10 predicts the time for switching the type of solid fuel. For example, the prediction unit 13 predicts the future time when the level extrapolated from the time-dependent change in the level of the solid fuel reaches a threshold as the switching time. In one example, the prediction unit 13 predicts the future time when the extrapolated level L2 shown in Figure 5 reaches the threshold T as the switching time.

[0052] In step S5, the prediction device 10 outputs the switching time. For example, the output unit 14 displays the switching time on the display device of the prediction device 10 or on an external display device. In one example, the output unit 14 displays screen P, which includes the switching time P5 shown in Figure 5, on the display device. The display of screen P prompts the user or operator of the prediction system 1 to take appropriate action. For example, the operator may focus on monitoring the operating status of the combustion device 40 before and after the switching time. The operator may also change the control of the combustion device 40 before and after the switching time.

[0053] [Hardware configuration] Figure 7 shows an example of the hardware configuration related to the prediction system 1. Figure 7 shows a computer 100 that functions as a prediction device 10. The computer 100 consists of a CPU (Central Processing Unit) 101, a main memory unit 102, an auxiliary memory unit 103, and The device includes a signal control unit 104, an input device 105, and an output device 106. The prediction device 10 is composed of one or more computers 100, which consist of these hardware components and software such as programs.

[0054] If the prediction device 10 is composed of multiple computers 100, these computers 100 may be connected locally or via a communication network such as the Internet or an intranet. This connection logically constructs a single prediction device 10.

[0055] The CPU 101 executes the operating system and application programs. The main memory 102 consists of ROM (Read Only Memory) and RAM (Random Access Memory). The auxiliary memory 103 consists of a hard disk and flash memory. The storage medium is composed of the above. The auxiliary storage unit 103 generally stores a larger amount of data than the main storage unit 102. The communication control unit 104 is composed of a network card or a wireless communication module. At least part of the communication function between the prediction device 10 and other devices may be implemented by the communication control unit 104. The input device 105 is composed of a keyboard, mouse, touch panel, and microphone for voice input, etc. The output device 106 is composed of a display and printer, etc.

[0056] The auxiliary storage unit 103 stores the program 110 (prediction program) and the data necessary for processing in advance. The program 110 causes the computer 100 to execute each functional element of the prediction device 10. The program 110 causes the computer 100 to execute, for example, the processing related to the prediction method described above. For example, the program 110 is read by the CPU 101 or the main memory unit 102 and operates at least one of the CPU 101, the main memory unit 102, the auxiliary storage unit 103, the communication control unit 104, the input device 105, and the output device 106. For example, the program 110 reads and writes data to the main memory unit 102 and the auxiliary storage unit 103.

[0057] The program 110 may be provided on a tangible storage medium such as a CD-ROM, DVD-ROM, or semiconductor memory. The program 110 may also be provided as a data signal via a communication network.

[0058] As described above, the prediction device 10 according to one aspect of this disclosure predicts the switching time of the type of solid fuel supplied from the storage unit 20 to the combustion unit 40 via the supply device 30. The prediction device 10 includes an acquisition unit 11 that acquires the level of solid fuel stored in the storage unit 20, and a prediction unit 13 that predicts the future time when the level, extrapolated from the temporal change in the decrease of the solid fuel level, reaches a threshold as the switching time.

[0059] In the prediction device 10, the switching time for the type of solid fuel is predicted using a level extrapolated from the decrease in the solid fuel level and a threshold. Here, the level of solid fuel fluctuates because solid fuel is added to and removed from the storage unit 20. In the prediction device 10 of this disclosure, the level of solid fuel is supplemented by a level extrapolated from the decrease in the solid fuel level. As a result, even if various types of solid fuel are added to the storage unit 20, for example, the rate at which the solid fuel level decreases can be predicted. Consequently, the accuracy of predicting the switching time is improved.

[0060] The acquisition unit 11 acquires the temperature of the gas supplied to the supply device 30. The prediction device 10 further includes a determination unit 12 that determines a threshold based on the time at which the trend of the gas temperature changes and a level extrapolated from the temporal change in the level of the solid fuel. With this configuration, the relationship between the change in the trend of the gas temperature and the level extrapolated from the level of the solid fuel is reflected in the determination of the threshold. This improves the accuracy of the threshold for identifying the switching time. As a result, the prediction accuracy of the switching time is improved.

[0061] The acquisition unit 11 acquires the concentration of chemical substances generated by the combustion of solid fuel. The prediction device 10 further includes a determination unit 12 that determines a threshold based on the time when the trend of chemical substance concentration changes and a level extrapolated from the temporal change in the level of solid fuel. With this configuration, the relationship between the change in the trend of chemical substance concentration and the level extrapolated from the level of solid fuel decline is reflected in the determination of the threshold. This improves the accuracy of the threshold for identifying the switching time. As a result, the time when the type of solid fuel supplied to the combustion device 40 changes can be predicted with high accuracy.

[0062] The prediction device 10 further includes an output unit 14 that displays the switching time on a display device. This improves convenience for users or operators who use the switching time.

[0063] The acquisition unit 11 acquires the level of solid fuel for each of several units, each including a storage unit 20 and a supply device 30. The prediction unit 13 predicts the future time when the level, extrapolated from the temporal change in the decrease of the solid fuel level for each of the several units, will reach a threshold, and this time is defined as the switching time. With this configuration, the switching time is predicted for each of the several units. This improves the accuracy of predicting the switching time for multiple units. It also reduces the cost of monitoring multiple units.

[0064] [Differentiation] This disclosure is not necessarily limited to the embodiments described above, and various modifications are possible without departing from its essence.

[0065] When comparing the relative magnitudes of two numbers, either the criteria "greater than or equal to" or "greater than" may be used, as may either the criteria "less than or equal to" or "less than."

[0066] [Note] This disclosure describes a technology for predicting the timing of changes in the type of solid fuel supplied to a combustion device. This technology enables more efficient operation of the combustion device. Therefore, this disclosure also contributes to the following Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) led by the United Nations. Goal 7: "Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy for all."

[0067] The gist of this disclosure is as follows: [1] A prediction device that predicts the switching time of the type of solid fuel supplied from the storage unit to the combustion unit via a supply device, An acquisition unit for acquiring the level of solid fuel stored in the storage unit, A prediction unit predicts the future time at which the level obtained by extrapolating the temporal change in the level of the solid fuel will reach a threshold, and sets this time as the switching time. A prediction device equipped with the following features. [2] The acquisition unit acquires the temperature of the gas supplied to the supply device. The prediction device further includes a determination unit that determines a threshold based on the time at which the trend of the gas temperature changes and a level obtained by extrapolating the temporal change in the decrease of the solid fuel level. [1] The prediction device described above. [3] The acquisition unit acquires the concentration of chemical substances generated by the combustion of solid fuel. The prediction device according to [1] or [2], further comprising a determination unit that determines a threshold value based on the time at which the trend of the concentration of the chemical substance changes and a level obtained by extrapolating the temporal change in the decrease of the level of the solid fuel. [4] The prediction device further comprises an output unit for displaying the switching time on a display device, according to any one of [1] to [3]. [5] The acquisition unit acquires the level of the solid fuel for each of the plurality of units, each of which includes the storage unit and the supply device. The prediction unit predicts the future time at which the level obtained by extrapolating the temporal change in the level of the solid fuel for each of the plurality of units reaches the threshold, and this time is defined as the switching time. A prediction device as described in any of [1] to [4]. [Explanation of Symbols]

[0068] 1. Prediction System 10 Prediction device 11 Acquisition Department 12. Decision Section 13 Prediction Section 14 Output section 20 Storage section 21 Cylinder part 22 Tapered section 30 Feeding device 31 Transport machine 32. Crusher 40 Combustion device 50 Power generation equipment 60 Gas Processing Unit 70 First measuring device 80. Second measuring device 90 Third measuring device 20A one end 20B other end P screen T threshold L1, L2 levels P1 Level P2 time P3 Graph P4 Last input time P5 Switching Time

Claims

1. A prediction device that predicts the switching time of the type of solid fuel supplied from the storage unit to the combustion unit via a supply device, An acquisition unit that acquires the level of solid fuel stored in the storage unit and the temperature of the gas supplied to the supply device, A determination unit that determines a threshold based on the time at which the temperature trend of the gas changes and a level obtained by extrapolating the temporal change in the level of the solid fuel, A prediction unit predicts the future time at which the level obtained by extrapolating the temporal change in the level of the solid fuel reaches the threshold, and sets this time as the switching time. A prediction device equipped with the following features.

2. The acquisition unit acquires the concentration of chemical substances generated by the combustion of solid fuel. The determination unit further determines the threshold based on the time at which the trend of the concentration of the chemical substance changes and the level obtained by extrapolating the change in the level of the solid fuel over time. The prediction device according to claim 1.

3. The prediction device according to claim 1, further comprising an output unit for displaying the switching time on a display device.

4. The acquisition unit acquires the level of the solid fuel for each of the plurality of units, each of which includes the storage unit and the supply device. The prediction unit predicts the future time at which the level obtained by extrapolating the temporal change in the decrease of the solid fuel level for each of the plurality of units reaches the threshold, and this time is defined as the switching time. The prediction device according to claim 1.

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