Impact assessment device and impact assessment method for evaluating the impacts of farming activities.

Abstract

To provide an influence evaluation device capable of specifying an economic ripple effect when carrying out farming activities in an arbitrary region.SOLUTION: An influence evaluation device (10) for farming activities comprises a first specification unit (15) that specifies an economic ripple effect within an arbitrary region when farming activities are carried out in the arbitrary region selected by a user from among a plurality of regions. The first specification unit (15) specifies the economic ripple effect, based on an amount of energy goods used in the farming activities, a purchase amount of input goods for the farming activities other than the energy goods, and an industry-related model set based on an industry-related table corresponding to the arbitrary region.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 3

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to an impact evaluation device and an impact evaluation method for evaluating the impact of farming activities.

Background Art

[0002] The inventor of the present invention has developed a tool for quantitatively showing how the implementation of projects such as the construction stage of the agricultural and rural development project and the construction stage of the small hydropower project affects various industries in the entire economy (economic ripple effect) (see, for example, Non-Patent Document 1). This tool can calculate various ripple effects (production inducement amount, added value inducement amount, number of induced employees, greenhouse gas emission amount) of the above-mentioned projects at the prefecture level.

Prior Art Documents

Non-Patent Documents

[0003]

Non-Patent Document 1

Summary of the Invention

Problems to be Solved by the Invention

[0004] The "Green Food System Strategy" formulated by the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries aims for the food and agriculture, forestry and fisheries industries to actively contribute to the realization of carbon neutrality and to develop and introduce various new technologies for that purpose. Therefore, it is important to first quantitatively grasp the impact of current farming activities and use it as a benchmark for comparison with the agriculture to be aimed for in the future.

[0005] However, since the above Non-Patent Document 1 is a method for evaluating the impact of construction projects, it cannot evaluate the impact of farming activities (for example, economic ripple effect).

[0006] Furthermore, there is a need to develop methods that allow users to arbitrarily select a region smaller than a country (such as a prefecture or municipality) and evaluate the impact of agricultural activities targeting that selected region.

[0007] Therefore, one aspect of the present invention aims to realize an impact assessment device and an impact assessment method for evaluating the impact of farming activities in any region. [Means for solving the problem]

[0008] To solve the above problems, an impact assessment device for farming activities according to one aspect of the present invention is an impact assessment device for farming activities that evaluates the impact of farming activities carried out in any region, and includes an input unit that accepts input of an arbitrary region selected by a user from among a plurality of regions, input of the quantity or purchase price of energy goods used in the farming activities, and input of the quantity or purchase price of input goods other than energy goods for the farming activities; a model setting unit that sets up an input-output model based on an input-output table corresponding to the arbitrary region; and a first identification unit that identifies the economic ripple effect within the arbitrary region when farming activities are carried out in the arbitrary region, based on the quantity or purchase price of energy goods, the quantity or purchase price of input goods, and the input-output model.

[0009] To solve the above problems, a method for evaluating the impact of farming activities according to one aspect of the present invention is a method for evaluating the impact of farming activities when farming activities are carried out in an arbitrary region, and includes an input step of receiving input of an arbitrary region selected by a user from among a plurality of regions, input of the quantity or purchase price of energy goods used in the farming activities, and input of the quantity or purchase price of input goods other than energy goods for the farming activities; a model identification step of identifying an input-output model based on an input-output table corresponding to the arbitrary region received in the input step; and a first identification step of identifying the economic ripple effect within the arbitrary region when farming activities are carried out in the arbitrary region, based on the quantity or purchase price of energy goods, the quantity or purchase price of input goods, and the input-output model.

[0010] Each aspect of the present invention may be implemented by computer, and in this case, an impact evaluation program for the impact evaluation device that implements the impact evaluation device by computer by operating the computer as each part (software element) of the impact evaluation device also falls within the scope of the present invention. [Effects of the Invention]

[0011] According to one aspect of the present invention, an impact assessment device and an impact assessment method can be realized to evaluate the impact of farming activities in any region. [Brief explanation of the drawing]

[0012] [Figure 1] This figure shows an example of a network configuration equipped with a device for evaluating the impact of farming activities according to one embodiment of the present invention. [Figure 2] This figure shows an example of the hardware configuration of a computer that constitutes a farming activity impact assessment device according to one embodiment of the present invention. [Figure 3] This figure shows the functional block of a farming activity impact assessment device according to one embodiment of the present invention. [Figure 4]It is a flowchart showing a processing flow of a method for evaluating the impact of farming activities according to an embodiment of the present invention. [Figure 5] It is a diagram showing an example of an evaluation condition input screen displayed on the user terminal 20. [Figure 6] It is a diagram showing an example of an evaluation condition input screen displayed on the user terminal 20. [Figure 7] It is a diagram showing an example of an evaluation condition input screen displayed on the user terminal 20. [Figure 8] It is a conceptual diagram of the backward linkage effect. [Figure 9] It is a diagram showing an example of various results obtained by the method for evaluating the impact of farming activities according to an embodiment of the present invention. [Figure 10] It is a diagram showing a continuation from FIG. 9 of an example of various results obtained by the method for evaluating the impact of farming activities according to an embodiment of the present invention. [Figure 11] It is a diagram showing a continuation from FIGS. 9 and 10 of an example of various results obtained by the method for evaluating the impact of farming activities according to an embodiment of the present invention.

Mode for Carrying Out the Invention

[0013] Hereinafter, an embodiment of the present invention will be described based on the drawings. FIG. 1 is a diagram showing an example of a network configuration in an embodiment of the present invention. In FIG. 1, the farming activity impact evaluation apparatus 10 (hereinafter, simply referred to as the impact evaluation apparatus 10) of the present embodiment is connected to one or more user terminals 20 via a network such as the Internet or a LAN (Local Area Network).

[0014] The impact evaluation apparatus 10 is one or more computers that evaluate the impact when farming activities are carried out in an arbitrary region. In the present embodiment, farming activities refer to the purchase and use by farmers of various input materials and services (such as chemical fertilizers, agricultural chemicals, surveying services, etc.) necessary for production, in addition to the operation of agricultural machinery, equipment, and facilities used at the activity site (farmland).

[0015] The user terminal 20 is a terminal that receives input of evaluation conditions for the impact evaluation device 10 from the user and outputs (displays) the evaluation result by the impact evaluation device 10. For example, a PC (Personal Computer), a smartphone, a tablet terminal, etc. may be used as the user terminal 20.

[0016] FIG. 2 is a diagram showing a hardware configuration example of the computer that constitutes the impact evaluation device 10. The computers that constitute the impact evaluation device 10 include a drive device 100, an auxiliary storage device 102, a memory device 103, a CPU 104, and an interface device 105, etc., which are mutually connected by a bus B. As an example, the program for realizing the processing in the impact evaluation device 10 may be provided by a recording medium 101 such as a CD-ROM. In this case, when the recording medium 101 storing the program is set in the drive device 100, the program is installed from the recording medium 101 to the auxiliary storage device 102 via the drive device 100. However, the installation of the program does not necessarily have to be performed from the recording medium 101, and it may be downloaded from another computer via a network. The auxiliary storage device 102 stores the installed program and also stores necessary files, data, etc. The memory device 103 reads out and stores the program from the auxiliary storage device 102 when there is an instruction to start the program. The CPU 104 executes the functions related to the impact evaluation device 10 according to the program stored in the memory device 103. The interface device 105 is used as an interface for connecting to a network.

[0017] FIG. 3 is a diagram showing the functional blocks of the impact evaluation device 10 in the present embodiment. In FIG. 3, the impact evaluation device 10 includes an input unit 11, a model setting unit 14, a first specifying unit 15, a second specifying unit 16, and a third specifying unit 17. These units are realized by the processing executed by the CPU 104 (FIG. 2) for one or more programs installed in the impact evaluation device 10.

[0018] The impact assessment device 10 also utilizes databases such as an input-output table database 151, an information database 152 showing the share of employed persons by industry, and a database 153 showing greenhouse gas emission factors and energy consumption factors. Each database will be described later, but these databases are stored in a storage unit (for example, an auxiliary storage device 102). However, it is not limited to this, and can be implemented using a storage device that can be connected to the impact assessment device 10 via a network. In this embodiment, the input-output table database 151, the information database 152 showing the share of employed persons by industry, and the database 153 showing greenhouse gas emission factors and energy consumption factors are examples of storage units.

[0019] (Input-Output Database) The input-output database stores input-output tables corresponding to each of several regions for a given year (hereinafter referred to as the "base year"). In this embodiment, the input-output database divides Japan (47 prefectures) into predetermined regions and stores input-output tables corresponding to each region. As an example, the input-output database is divided by prefecture (hereinafter simply referred to as "each prefecture" or "each prefecture") and stores input-output tables corresponding to each prefecture. Each prefecture corresponds to the "arbitrary region" in the claims.

[0020] Each prefecture provides an input-output table with several different numbers of sectors. In this embodiment, one of these tables (for example, a table with sector classifications (96 to 109 sectors) that roughly correspond to the 107 integrated sub-sectors of the 2015 National Input-Output Table (hereinafter referred to as the National Table)) is adopted, and the endogenous sectors of each table are integrated into the 51 sectors shown in Table 1 below to form the input-output table database. [Table 1]

[0021] (Information database showing the share of employed persons by industry) The information database showing the share of employed persons by industry stores information showing the number of employed persons by industry for each municipality (specific region), which is a further narrowed-down scope from each prefecture (arbitrary region). This information can be constructed based on the "Economic Census" published by the Statistics Bureau of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. For example, from the Economic Census of a certain year published by the Statistics Bureau of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (for example, "Establishment Aggregation, Results by Prefecture" of the "2014 Economic Census - Basic Survey"), "Table 3-2: Number of Employees by Industry (Medium Classification) and Municipality" for all prefectures is collected, the industries are integrated into the 51 sectors in Table 1 mentioned above, and the regional share coefficient for each sector is calculated using the following formula (1), which is used as information showing the share of employed persons by industry. The information showing the share of employed persons by industry (information showing the ratio of the number of employed persons by industry in each municipality to the total number of employed persons by industry in the prefecture) is used to identify the economic ripple effect within the municipality (specific region), as will be described later.

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[0022] (Greenhouse gas emission coefficient and energy consumption coefficient database) The Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emission Factor and Energy Consumption Factor Database includes the following three GHG databases (table). The Energy Consumption Factor Database is similar to the GHG database.

[0023] The first GHG database is based on the Environmental Load Intensity Data Book "3EID" provided by the National Institute for Environmental Studies, and stores data integrated into the 51 categories shown in Table 1 above. This first GHG database is used to measure indirect impacts. Here, indirect impacts refer to greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption generated during the manufacturing process of goods used in farming activities, such as chemical fertilizers and pesticides. These are called indirect impacts to distinguish them from impacts caused by the burning of fossil fuels and GHG emissions from the soil at the farming site (direct impacts). In short, indirect impacts are greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption generated during the manufacturing process of these goods.

[0024] The second GHG database contains 3EID-based data, which subdivides fossil fuel consumption by fuel type, in order to provide a detailed analysis of the direct impacts (energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions) of agricultural activities.

[0025] The third GHG database stores emission factor data based on 3EID, subdivided into 52 agricultural, forestry, fishery, and food product categories, in order to more precisely measure direct greenhouse gas emissions that are not related to energy consumption.

[0026] [Impact Assessment Method] The following describes the processing procedure performed by the impact assessment device 10, i.e., the impact assessment method. The impact assessment method in this embodiment is performed using the impact assessment device 10 and, in general, includes the steps of identifying the economic ripple effects on prefectures and municipalities, and identifying greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption (direct and indirect). These steps will be described in order below. Figure 4 is a flowchart illustrating an example of the processing procedure performed by the impact assessment device 10. Figures 5 to 7 show examples of evaluation condition input screens displayed on the user terminal 20.

[0027] (1) Identification of economic ripple effects (1-1) Identification of the economic ripple effect on prefectures In step S101 shown in Figure 4, the input unit 11 (Figure 3) receives evaluation conditions entered by any user terminal 20 (i.e., accepts the input of said evaluation conditions). The evaluation conditions include the prefecture (any region) where farming activities are conducted, or the name of a city or town within any prefecture. In the example screen in Figure 5, "Step 1" is presented with a guide message that says, "Please select the prefecture where farming activities are conducted," and the user can select the prefecture from a dropdown menu. In the example screen in Figure 5, "Step 2" is presented with a guide message that says, "Please select up to 20 cities or towns where farming activities are conducted," and the user can select cities or towns from a dropdown menu. In this way, user input is presented in an interactive format with a set of guide messages (questions) and answer (selection) fields, ensuring that user operation proceeds smoothly. In step S101, the input-output table (Leontief inverse matrix) for the selected prefecture is automatically extracted. Furthermore, up to 20 municipalities can be selected, allowing for the evaluation of activities spanning multiple municipalities.

[0028] In step S102 shown in Figure 4, the input unit 11 receives input from the user terminal 20 as another evaluation condition for the items to be produced (i.e., accepts input for the evaluation condition). This corresponds to "Step 3" in the example screen in Figure 5. In step S102, one item is selected from among 52 items in agriculture, forestry, fisheries, or food manufacturing (Table 2 below). These items are associated with the direct emission factors of non-energy-derived CO2, CH4 (methane), and N2O (nitrous oxide). The reason for providing a wide range of item options is to enable evaluation that broadly includes agriculture, forestry, fisheries, and related secondary industries. [Table 2]

[0029] Next, in "Step 4" of the example screen in Figure 5, the number of workers directly engaged in farming activities is entered. This is also received by the input unit 11. This information is added as a direct effect to the number of job creators, which is one of the measurement items for economic ripple effects (corresponding to step S109 shown in Figure 4).

[0030] In step S103 shown in Figure 4, the input unit 11 receives input from the user terminal 20 as another evaluation condition, which is the quantity or purchase price of energy goods used in farming activities (i.e., it accepts input of the evaluation condition). This corresponds to "Step 5-1" and "Step 5-2" in the example screen in Figure 6. "Step 5-1" is configured for inputting energy goods used in farming activities for which the user knows the physical quantity, and "Step 5-2" is configured for inputting the purchase price of energy goods used in farming activities for which the user does not know the physical quantity. Energy goods that are expected to be used in farming activities are listed in advance as energy items for each fuel type, and the user enters them in the input field for the fuel type to be used.

[0031] In step S104 shown in Figure 4, the input unit 11 receives input from the user terminal 20 as another evaluation condition, which is the quantity or purchase price of inputs for farming activities other than energy goods (i.e., it accepts input of the evaluation condition). In one example, it receives input of the purchase price in "Step 6" of the screen example in Figure 7.

[0032] Steps S101 to S104 described above can be rephrased as input steps (input processes) in which input is received by the input unit 11. The input order of these four steps S101 to S104 is not limited to the order in the example above.

[0033] Next, the impact assessment process, in general, identifies the economic ripple effects within the region if farming activities are carried out in that region, based on the quantity or purchase price of energy goods and other goods entered in the input step and the input-output model corresponding to the prefecture entered in the input step (steps S105 to S108 below).

[0034] Specifically, the model setting unit 14 (Figure 3) sets up an input-output model corresponding to the entered prefecture (arbitrary region) and municipality (specific region) based on the input-output table corresponding to the prefecture (arbitrary region) and the industry-specific employment share corresponding to the municipality (specific region) entered in the input step (Step S105: Model setting process). Specifically, it obtains the input-output table (Leontief inverse matrix) corresponding to the prefecture (arbitrary region) entered in the input step from the input-output table database 151, and the industry-specific employment share corresponding to the municipality (specific region) from the industry-specific employment share database 152, and constructs an input-output model. Details of the construction method are explained in Non-Patent Literature 1, so the explanation is omitted here, but the constructed input-output model includes an import / exogeneic input-output model and an import / endogenous input-output model.

[0035] Furthermore, the first identification unit 15 (Figure 3) converts the quantity of energy goods entered in step S103 of the input step and the purchase price entered in step S104 into an input value vector (producer price evaluation) (step S106: first identification process). In step S106, the quantity of energy goods entered as a physical quantity is converted into a monetary value, and the commercial and transportation margins are removed from the purchase price of all goods expressed as buyer prices and converted into producer prices.

[0036] Note that the order in which steps S105 and S106 are performed does not matter. They may also be performed simultaneously.

[0037] Next, the first identification unit 15 (Figure 3) measures the overall economic ripple effect, including both within and outside the prefecture, using the input amount vector transformed in step S106 and the import / export type input-output model (corresponding to "other input-output models" in the claims) set up and constructed in step S105 (step S107: first identification process). Here, "outside the prefecture" (corresponding to "outside any region" within any region) refers to all municipalities within Japan and overseas regions located outside of "any region".

[0038] Furthermore, the first specific unit 15 (Figure 3) measures the economic ripple effect within the prefecture using the input amount vector converted in step S106 and the import-input endogenous type input-output model (corresponding to the "input-output model" in the claims) set up in step S105 (step S108: first specific step).

[0039] Here, we will explain methods for calculating various ripple effects, primarily based on input-output models. In this embodiment, ripple effects can include the amount of production induced (backward linkage effect) and the amount of value added induced for each sector, as well as the number of jobs created.

[0040] • Production inducement amount (backward linkage effect) Each industry does not exist economically independently; rather, it is connected to other industries through the procurement of raw materials and the sale of products. Because of these relationships, when demand for the products of one industry increases, it is natural that an increase in production in that industry is induced. However, in order to support this increase in production, the production of raw materials and services used in that industry must also increase. This production inducement effect due to connections is called the "backward linkage effect."

[0041] For example, as shown in Figure 8, if there is an increase in demand for 1 unit of agricultural product, this immediately leads to a 1-unit increase in production in the "agricultural products (agricultural sector)." This is called the "direct effect." Furthermore, to support this 1-unit increase in agricultural product production, it becomes necessary to increase production of "pesticides" by 0.1 units, and "transportation services" by 0.2 units to transport agricultural products. Furthermore, to support this increase in pesticide production, it becomes necessary to increase production of "chemical industrial products" and "electricity," and so on, the production-inducing effect spreads one after another to the upstream raw materials and service sectors. These are collectively called the "indirect effect." However, since the effect diminishes by the value added of each industry with each subsequent wave of propagation, the sum of the ripple effects after an infinite number of propagations generally converges to a finite value. The sum of the direct and indirect effects is called the "backward linkage effect." In this embodiment, the first specific unit 15 (Figure 3) calculates the backward linkage effect. Specifically, the first specific section 15 uses input-output tables corresponding to each prefecture to determine the import / export type ((IA)) for each prefecture individually. -1 Type) and imported endogenous type ((I-(IM)A) -1 The Leontief inverse matrix is ​​calculated and stored in a database beforehand. Using these, the "total production inducement effect (including all spillovers within and outside the prefecture and outside the country)" and the "production inducement effect within and outside the prefecture" are calculated using equations (2), (3), and (4) below.

[0042]

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[0043] Here, the total production inducement effect in equation (2) is a hypothetical inducement effect assuming that all imported goods are self-sufficient within the prefecture (i.e., all import / export coefficients in equation (3) are zero). Therefore, theoretically, equation (2) can measure the spillover effect including the production of imported goods (i.e., leakage to outside the prefecture), but it is important to note that the production structure within a prefecture and the structure outside the prefecture where imported goods are actually produced generally differ, so there will be an error in measuring the leakage to outside the prefecture. To measure the leakage to outside the prefecture more accurately, analysis using "inter-prefectural input-output tables" that describe the input structure of all prefectures is necessary.

[0044] Furthermore, in equations (2) and (3), the final demand f is given as a vector of intermediate inputs for farming activities, so the production inducement effects x1 and x2 measure only the indirect effects. Therefore, the production inducement effect (backward linkage effect) displayed as the output of the tool is obtained by adding the direct effect, i.e., the total amount of initial inputs (intermediate inputs + value added), to each of these.

[0045] • Value-added inducement effect and employment inducement effect The value-added inducement effect is an indicator that shows which region ultimately receives the increase in household income. The employment inducement effect shows the number of jobs that are expected to be created as a result of production inducement. Both effects are calculated by multiplying the production inducement effect by the value-added rate (value added / total production) and the employment inducement coefficient (number of employed persons / total production), respectively (see equations (5) and (6) below). The value added for each industry can be obtained from the input-output tables for each prefecture. The employment inducement coefficient in equation (6) can be calculated by dividing the "total number of employees" for each industrial sector, as listed in the "employment table" published by each prefecture, by the total production of that sector. Therefore, the number of people whose jobs are induced to be measured includes not only employees of general companies but also sole proprietors and family workers.

[0046]

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[0047] Note that x in equations (5) and (6) is substituted with the production inducement effect at the prefectural level (x1 or x2). Although the details are omitted, the method for allocating the intra-prefectural ripple effect to municipalities is the same as for the production inducement effect. Also, equations (5) and (6) are indirect effects, and the direct effects provided by the user (the added value of the farming activity itself (salaries, etc.) and the number of workers, respectively) are added to these to obtain the tool's output.

[0048] Furthermore, the first specific unit 15 (Figure 3) calculates the total of the overall economic ripple effect (backward linkage effect) including both within and outside the prefecture by adding the direct effect to the overall economic ripple effect (of which the indirect effect) measured in step S107 of Figure 4 (steps S109, S110), and calculates the economic ripple effect (backward linkage effect) within the prefecture by adding the direct effect to the economic ripple effect (of which the indirect effect) measured in step S108 (steps S109, S111).

[0049] (1-2) Identification of the economic ripple effect on municipalities Next, the impact assessment process, in essence, identifies the economic ripple effects (production inducement effects) within the municipalities (specific regions) entered in the input step (steps S112-S116 in Figure 4).

[0050] The economic ripple effect within the prefecture calculated in step S108 is an indirect ripple effect (indirect effect). Therefore, the first identification unit 15 (Figure 3) identifies information showing the share of the number of employed persons by industry corresponding to the municipality entered in the input step (step S112) from the information database showing the share of the number of employed persons by industry (Figure 3).

[0051] Next, the first specific section 15 (Figure 3) uses information showing the share of employed persons by industry to allocate the different number of employed persons by industry as an allocation coefficient, and then apportions the economic ripple effect (indirect effect) within the prefecture, calculated in step S108, to each municipality (step S113) (see equation (7)).

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[0052] The first specific unit 15 (Figure 3) distributes the direct effects within the municipalities entered in the input step (step S115).

[0053] Furthermore, regarding the first-round effects, which account for a large proportion of the indirect effects, namely the purchase of intermediate inputs by the farmers themselves, the regional share method in equation (7) does not need to be used. Instead, the purchase locations of each input entered by the user should be specifically allocated both within and outside the town (step S114).

[0054] Based on steps S113 to S115 described above, the economic ripple effect on areas inside and outside the municipality where the farming activity took place is measured (step S116).

[0055] (2) Identification of greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption (direct) Next, the impact assessment process, in essence, identifies the greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption that directly result from farming activities in the prefecture (or any region) (Step S117 in Figure 4). Note that the greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption that directly result from farming activities in the prefecture (or any region) refer to those that occur at the farming site.

[0056] Specifically, the second identification unit 16 (Figure 3) identifies greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption directly generated in the prefecture (any region) by farming activities (step S117). The second identification unit 16 uses the amount of energy goods entered in step S103, the items entered in step S102, and the greenhouse gas emission coefficients and energy consumption coefficients applicable to any prefecture or municipality stored in the greenhouse gas emission coefficient and energy consumption coefficient database 153 (Figure 3) to identify greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption directly generated in the prefecture (any region) by farming activities. Here, the items entered in step S102 are reflected in direct greenhouse gas emissions other than those derived from energy goods (such as methane generated from paddy field soil). In addition, the amount of energy goods entered in step S103 is reflected in greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption derived from energy goods.

[0057] The procedures for identifying greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption directly generated in a prefecture (or any region) by agricultural activities are described below.

[0058] Identification of greenhouse gas emissions (direct) The second specific section 16 (Figure 3) shows that greenhouse gas emissions directly generated in the prefecture (any region) by farming activities are obtained by adding the greenhouse gas emissions from energy goods and greenhouse gas emissions from sources other than energy goods.

[0059] • Identification of energy consumption (direct) The second specific unit 16 (Figure 3) measures the amount of energy consumption directly generated in the prefecture (any region) by farming activities by multiplying the amount of energy goods input in step S103 by the amount of heat per unit quantity.

[0060] (3) Identification of greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption (indirect) The impact assessment process, in essence, identifies greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption generated during the manufacturing process of goods used in farming activities (step S118). These goods include, for example, chemical fertilizers and pesticides. Here, it refers to identifying greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption generated during the manufacturing process of these goods, thereby identifying such indirectly generated greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption.

[0061] Specifically, the third specific unit 17 (Figure 3) identifies greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption generated during the manufacturing process of goods used in farming activities (step S118). Based on the greenhouse gas emission coefficient, the energy consumption coefficient, and the economic ripple effects (including both within and outside the prefecture) of farming activities conducted in the prefecture entered in step S103 (the aforementioned "total production inducement effect (including all ripple effects within and outside the prefecture and overseas)"), the third specific unit 17 (Figure 3) identifies indirectly generated greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption.

[0062] Specifically, the third specific unit 17 (Figure 3) calculates the indirect environmental impact by multiplying the total production inducement effect of formula (2) above by the direct environmental impact coefficient.

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[0063] Furthermore, g and e, calculated by multiplying the indirect effect x1 by the environmental impact coefficient, represent only greenhouse gas emissions (indirect) and energy consumption (indirect) (Equations (8) and (9)). Therefore, the total environmental impact is obtained by adding the aforementioned greenhouse gas emissions (direct) and energy consumption (direct) to these. Note that, unlike economic ripple effects, the total amount of environmental impact is more important than where it occurred, so geographical breakdowns at the prefectural or municipal level are not shown.

[0064] The various results obtained through the above impact assessment process can be displayed on the user terminal 20 (Figure 1) in the form of a table, as exemplified in Figures 9 to 11. Note that the examples in Figures 9 to 11 are based on an example where the average input structure of the "rice" sector (production value of 5.93 million yen) has been substituted.

[0065] According to this embodiment, the economic ripple effects of farming activities can be output separately for those within and outside the prefecture and within and outside the municipality in question. Furthermore, according to this embodiment, greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption of farming activities can be output separately for direct and indirect impacts.

[0066] According to this embodiment, officials in charge of local governments and land improvement districts can evaluate current farming activities and the resulting ripple effects on the regional economy if those activities are changed. Furthermore, in order to obtain guidelines for future decarbonization of agriculture, farmers can easily and quantitatively grasp the greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption of their current farming activities. In addition, it is possible to simulate changes in greenhouse gas emissions and other factors when the input of materials traded in the market (fossil fuels, chemical fertilizers, etc.) is increased or decreased.

[0067] Furthermore, the impact assessment device and impact assessment method (impact assessment process) described in this embodiment can be accessed and used from a user terminal as a web application.

[0068] According to the above configuration, the economic ripple effects of farming activities can be output separately for those within and outside the prefecture and within and outside the municipality in question. Furthermore, greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption from farming activities can be output separately for direct and indirect impacts. Such effects contribute, for example, to achieving United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) such as "Goal 13: Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts" and "Goal 2: End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture."

[0069] [Examples of implementation using software] The function of the impact assessment device 10 (hereinafter referred to as "the device") is a program that causes the device to function as a computer, and can be realized by programs that cause each part of the device to function as a computer.

[0070] In this case, the device includes a computer having at least one control device (e.g., a processor) and at least one storage device (e.g., memory) as hardware for executing the program. By executing the program using this control device and storage device, each of the functions described in the above embodiment is realized.

[0071] The above program may be recorded on one or more computer-readable recording media, not temporary ones. These recording media may or may not be provided by the above device. In the latter case, the program may be supplied to the above device via any wired or wireless transmission medium.

[0072] Furthermore, some or all of the functions of the above-mentioned parts can also be realized by logic circuits. For example, an integrated circuit in which logic circuits functioning as the above-mentioned parts are formed is also included in the scope of the present invention. In addition, it is also possible to realize the functions of the above-mentioned parts by, for example, a quantum computer.

[0073] The present invention is not limited to the embodiments described above, and various modifications are possible within the scope of the claims, and these modifications are also included within the technical scope of the present invention.

[0074] 〔summary〕 An impact assessment device for farming activities according to embodiment 1 of the present invention is an impact assessment device for farming activities that evaluates the impact of farming activities carried out in any region, and includes an input unit that accepts input of an arbitrary region selected by a user from among a plurality of regions, input of the quantity or purchase price of energy goods used in the farming activities, and input of the quantity or purchase price of input goods other than energy goods for the farming activities; a model setting unit that sets up an input-output model based on an input-output table corresponding to the arbitrary region; and a first identification unit that identifies the economic ripple effect within the arbitrary region when farming activities are carried out in the arbitrary region, based on the quantity or purchase price of energy goods, the quantity or purchase price of input goods, and the input-output model.

[0075] According to the configuration of the above embodiment 1, the economic ripple effect for any region selected by the user can be identified.

[0076] The agricultural activity impact evaluation device according to embodiment 2 of the present invention, in embodiment 1, further receives input from the user to a specific region that is further limited in scope from the arbitrary region, and the first identification unit identifies the economic ripple effect within the specific region when agricultural activities are carried out in the specific region, based on the quantity or purchase price of the energy goods, the quantity or purchase price of the input goods, the input-output model, and information showing the share of the number of employed persons by industry corresponding to the specific region.

[0077] According to the configuration of the above embodiment 2, the economic ripple effect on a specific region arbitrarily selected by the user can be identified.

[0078] The impact assessment device for farming activities according to embodiment 3 of the present invention, in embodiment 1 or 2, further includes an input unit which receives input of items produced by the farming activity, and the impact assessment device further includes a second identification unit which identifies greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption amounts that directly occur in any of the plurality of regions based on greenhouse gas emission factors and energy consumption factors applicable to any of the regions, the amount of energy goods, and the items.

[0079] According to the configuration of the above embodiment 3, it is possible to identify the amount of greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption that are directly generated in any region selected by the user as a result of farming activities in that region.

[0080] The impact assessment device for farming activities according to embodiment 4 of the present invention, in any of embodiments 1 to 3, includes, the model setting unit sets an input-output model different from the input-output model based on an input-output table corresponding to the arbitrary region, the first identification unit identifies the economic ripple effect, including both inside and outside the arbitrary region, when farming activities are carried out in the arbitrary region, based on the quantity or purchase price of the energy goods, the quantity or purchase price of the input goods, and the other input-output model, and the impact assessment device further includes a third identification unit that identifies greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption amounts generated in the manufacturing process of goods used in the farming activities, based on greenhouse gas emission coefficients and energy consumption coefficients applicable to any of the plurality of regions, and the economic ripple effect, including both inside and outside the arbitrary region.

[0081] According to the configuration of the above embodiment 4, it is possible to identify greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption generated during the manufacturing process of goods used in farming activities for any region selected by the user.

[0082] A method for evaluating the impact of farming activities according to embodiment 5 of the present invention is a method for evaluating the impact of farming activities when farming activities are carried out in an arbitrary region, and includes an input step of receiving input of an arbitrary region selected by a user from among a plurality of regions, input of the quantity or purchase price of energy goods used in the farming activities, and input of the quantity or purchase price of input goods other than energy goods for the farming activities; a model identification step of identifying an input-output model based on an input-output table corresponding to the arbitrary region received in the input step; and a first identification step of identifying the economic ripple effect within the arbitrary region when farming activities are carried out in the arbitrary region, based on the quantity or purchase price of energy goods, the quantity or purchase price of input goods, and the input-output model.

[0083] According to the configuration of the above embodiment 5, the economic ripple effect for any region selected by the user can be identified.

[0084] The method for evaluating the impact of farming activities according to embodiment 6 of the present invention, in embodiment 5, further accepts input by the user of a specific region that is further limited in scope from the arbitrary region, in the input step, and in the first identification step, identifies the economic ripple effect within the specific region when farming activities are carried out in the specific region, based on the quantity or purchase price of the energy goods, the quantity or purchase price of the input goods, the input-output model, and information showing the share of the number of employed persons by industry corresponding to the specific region.

[0085] According to the configuration of the above embodiment 6, the economic ripple effect on a specific region arbitrarily selected by the user can be identified.

[0086] A method for evaluating the impact of farming activities according to embodiment 7 of the present invention, wherein in embodiment 5 or 6, the input step further accepts input of items produced by the farming activities, and the impact evaluation method further includes a second identification step of identifying greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption amounts that directly occur in any of the plurality of regions as a result of the farming activities, based on greenhouse gas emission coefficients and energy consumption coefficients applicable to any of the regions, the quantity or purchase price of the energy goods, and the items.

[0087] According to the configuration of the above embodiment 7, it is possible to identify the amount of greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption that are directly generated in any region selected by the user as a result of farming activities in that region.

[0088] The method for evaluating the impact of farming activities according to embodiment 8 of the present invention, in any of embodiments 5 to 7, includes, in the model identification step, identifying another input-output model different from the input-output model based on an input-output table corresponding to the arbitrary region; in the first identification step, identifying the economic ripple effect, including both inside and outside the arbitrary region, when farming activities are carried out in the arbitrary region, based on the quantity or purchase price of the energy goods, the quantity or purchase price of the input goods, and the other input-output model; and the impact evaluation method further includes a third identification step of identifying greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption amounts generated in the manufacturing process of goods used in the farming activities, based on greenhouse gas emission coefficients and energy consumption coefficients applicable to any of the plurality of regions, and the economic ripple effect, including both inside and outside the arbitrary region.

[0089] According to the configuration of the above embodiment 8, it is possible to identify greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption generated during the manufacturing process of goods used in farming activities for any region selected by the user.

[0090] The impact assessment program of embodiment 9 of the present invention is an impact assessment program for farming activities that causes a computer to function as an impact assessment device of any of embodiments 1 to 4, and is an impact assessment program that causes a computer to function as each of the above-mentioned parts. [Explanation of symbols]

[0091] 10 Impact Assessment Device 11 Input section 14 Model Setting Section 15. First specific section 16. Second Special Section 17. Third Special Section 20 user terminals 100 drive unit 101 Recording media 102 Auxiliary storage device 103 Memory device 104 CPU 105 Interface device 151 Input-Output Database 152. Information database showing the share of employed persons by industry. 153 Greenhouse Gas Emission Factor and Energy Consumption Factor Database

Claims

1. An impact assessment device for farming activities that evaluates the impact of farming activities carried out in any given area, An input unit that accepts input of an arbitrary region selected by the user from among multiple regions, input of the quantity or purchase price of energy goods used in the farming activities, and input of the quantity or purchase price of input goods other than energy goods for the farming activities. A model setting unit sets up an input-output model based on an input-output table corresponding to the aforementioned arbitrary region, and A first identification unit that identifies the economic ripple effect within any given region if farming activities were carried out in that region, based on the quantity or purchase amount of the energy goods, the quantity or purchase amount of the input goods, and the input-output model. including, A device for evaluating the impact of farming activities.

2. A farming activity impact evaluation device for evaluating the impact of farming activities carried out in any region, An input unit that accepts input of an arbitrary region selected by the user from among multiple regions, input of the quantity or purchase price of energy goods used in the farming activities, and input of the quantity or purchase price of input goods other than energy goods for the farming activities. A model setting unit sets up an input-output model based on an input-output table corresponding to the aforementioned arbitrary region, and A first identification unit that identifies the economic ripple effect within any given region if farming activities were carried out in that region, based on the quantity or purchase amount of the energy goods, the quantity or purchase amount of the input goods, and the input-output model. Includes, The input unit further accepts input from the user, specifying a particular region that is a more limited area than the aforementioned arbitrary region. The first specified unit identifies the economic ripple effect within the specified region when farming activities are carried out in the specified region, based on the quantity or purchase price of the energy goods, the quantity or purchase price of the input goods, the input-output model, and information indicating the share of the number of employed persons by industry corresponding to the specified region. A device for evaluating the impact of farming activities.

3. A farming activity impact evaluation device for evaluating the impact of farming activities carried out in any region, An input unit that accepts input of an arbitrary region selected by the user from among multiple regions, input of the quantity or purchase price of energy goods used in the farming activities, and input of the quantity or purchase price of input goods other than energy goods for the farming activities. A model setting unit sets up an input-output model based on an input-output table corresponding to the aforementioned arbitrary region, and A first identification unit that identifies the economic ripple effect within any given region if farming activities were carried out in that region, based on the quantity or purchase amount of the energy goods, the quantity or purchase amount of the input goods, and the input-output model. Includes, The input unit further receives input of the items produced by the farming activities, The aforementioned impact assessment device further, A second identification unit is included that identifies the greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption directly generated in any of the aforementioned regions by the farming activities, based on greenhouse gas emission factors and energy consumption factors applicable to any of the aforementioned regions, the quantity or purchase price of the energy goods, and the items. A device for evaluating the impact of farming activities.

4. A farming activity impact evaluation device for evaluating the impact of farming activities carried out in any region, An input unit that accepts input of an arbitrary region selected by the user from among multiple regions, input of the quantity or purchase price of energy goods used in the farming activities, and input of the quantity or purchase price of input goods other than energy goods for the farming activities. A model setting unit sets up an input-output model based on an input-output table corresponding to the aforementioned arbitrary region, and A first identification unit that identifies the economic ripple effect within any given region if farming activities were carried out in that region, based on the quantity or purchase amount of the energy goods, the quantity or purchase amount of the input goods, and the input-output model. Includes, The model setting unit sets up other input-output models different from the aforementioned input-output model based on the input-output table corresponding to the arbitrary region. The first identification unit identifies the economic ripple effects, including both within and outside the region, that would occur if farming activities were carried out in the region, based on the quantity or purchase price of the energy goods, the quantity or purchase price of the input goods, and the other input-output models. The aforementioned impact assessment device further, A third identification unit is included that identifies greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption generated in the manufacturing process of goods used in the farming activities, based on greenhouse gas emission factors and energy consumption factors applicable to any of the aforementioned multiple regions, and economic ripple effects including both within and outside the aforementioned arbitrary region. A device for evaluating the impact of farming activities.

5. A method for evaluating the impact of farming activities in any given region, which involves evaluating the impact of farming activities using a computer equipped with at least one processor, The aforementioned at least one processor, An input process that accepts input of an arbitrary region selected by the user from among multiple regions, input of the quantity or purchase price of energy goods used in the farming activities, and input of the quantity or purchase price of input goods other than energy goods for the farming activities. A model identification step, which identifies an input-output model based on the input-output table corresponding to the arbitrary region received in the input step, and A first identification step of identifying the economic ripple effect within the arbitrary region if farming activities were carried out in the arbitrary region, based on the quantity or purchase amount of the energy goods, the quantity or purchase amount of the input goods, and the input-output model. Execute Methods for evaluating the impact of farming activities.

6. The at least one processor is In the aforementioned input step, the user further selects a specific region that is a more limited area from the aforementioned arbitrary region, and the input is accepted accordingly. In the first specified step, based on the quantity or purchase price of the energy goods, the quantity or purchase price of the input goods, the input-output model, and information showing the share of the number of employed persons by industry corresponding to the specified region, the economic ripple effect within the specified region when farming activities are carried out in the specified region is identified. The method for evaluating the impact of farming activities as described in claim 5.

7. The at least one processor is In the input step, the input of the items produced by the farming activity is further received. The aforementioned impact assessment method further, The aforementioned at least one processor, A second identification step is performed to identify the greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption directly generated in any of the aforementioned regions by the farming activities, based on greenhouse gas emission factors and energy consumption factors applicable to any of the aforementioned regions, the quantity or purchase price of the energy goods, and the items. A method for evaluating the impact of farming activities according to claim 5 or 6.

8. The at least one processor is In the model identification step, based on the input-output table corresponding to the arbitrary region, other input-output models different from the aforementioned input-output model are identified. In the first specified step, based on the quantity or purchase price of the energy goods, the quantity or purchase price of the input goods, and the other input-output model, the economic ripple effects, including those inside and outside the specified region, when farming activities are carried out in the specified region are identified. The aforementioned impact assessment method further, The aforementioned at least one processor, A third identification step is performed to identify the amount of greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption generated in the manufacturing process of goods used in the farming activities, based on greenhouse gas emission factors and energy consumption factors applicable to any of the aforementioned multiple regions, and the economic ripple effects including both within and outside the aforementioned region. A method for evaluating the impact of farming activities according to claim 5 or 6.

9. An impact assessment program for farming activities, comprising a computer for functioning as an impact assessment device according to any one of claims 1 to 4, wherein each of the above-mentioned parts functions as a computer.

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