Growth prediction device and growth prediction method

Abstract

To improve growth stage prediction accuracy.SOLUTION: A growth prediction device 4 comprises a stage prediction unit 6 that predicts a growth stage for a crop and a definition unit 7 that, when the period from a reference date to the arrival date of the growth stage includes a specific growth stage, defines a threshold value that indicates a prediction date for the specific growth stage with respect to transition data for the growth stage predicted by the stage prediction unit 6. When predicting a next growth stage, the stage prediction unit 6 predicts the date on which transition data for the next growth stage reaches the threshold value as the specific growth stage.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to a growth prediction device and a growth prediction method for predicting the growth stage of crops.

Background Art

[0002] In order to stabilize the yield and quality of crops, it is necessary to sequentially predict a plurality of growth stages (for example, germination stage, heading stage, flowering stage, etc.) indicating the growth process of the crops, and perform appropriate operations (that is, timely operations) for each growth stage. The crop growth status analysis system of Patent Document 1 includes a growth prediction unit that predicts the growth status of a crop after a reference date based on time-series meteorological data and estimates the time when the crop reaches a growth stage.

Prior Art Documents

Patent Documents

[0003]

Patent Document 1

Summary of the Invention

Problems to be Solved by the Invention

[0004] The growth prediction unit of Patent Document 1 predicts that the day when the effective accumulated temperature value obtained by taking out and summing the portion exceeding a certain reference value among the daily average temperatures from the reference date reaches a certain value is the day when a certain growth status is reached (that is, the arrival day of the growth stage). However, in the above crop growth status analysis system, the prediction accuracy of the growth stage may be low. Therefore, in view of the above problems, an object of the present invention is to provide a growth prediction device and a growth prediction method capable of improving the prediction accuracy of the growth stage.

Means for Solving the Problems

[0005] The technical means of the present invention for solving this technical problem is characterized by the following points. The growth prediction device includes a stage prediction unit that predicts the growth stage of a crop, and a definition unit that, if a specific growth stage is included within the period from a reference date to the date on which the growth stage is reached, defines a threshold value indicating the predicted date for the specific growth stage based on the growth stage progression data predicted by the stage prediction unit. When the stage prediction unit predicts the next growth stage, it predicts the date on which the growth stage progression data for the next growth stage reaches the threshold value as the specific growth stage.

[0006] The stage prediction unit predicts the day on which the cumulative value obtained by accumulating the numerical progress of crop growth from a reference date reaches a predetermined value as the date on which the crop's growth stage is reached. The definition unit, if the specific growth stage is included within the period from the reference date to the date on which the growth stage is reached, defines the cumulative value corresponding to the date on which the specific growth stage is reached, as shown in the actual crop data, as a threshold indicating the predicted date for the specific growth stage, in the progress data of the cumulative value from the reference date to the date on which the growth stage is reached, as predicted by the stage prediction unit. The stage prediction unit may, when predicting the next growth stage, predict the day on which the cumulative value of the next growth stage reaches the threshold as the specific growth stage, and predict the day on which the cumulative value reaches the predetermined value as the date on which the next growth stage is reached.

[0007] The definition unit may define the threshold as the average value obtained by averaging the cumulative values ​​of multiple crop varieties corresponding to the specific developmental stage indicated by the performance data of multiple crop varieties.

[0008] The definition unit corresponds to the specific developmental stage indicated by the historical data of a single crop variety. The cumulative value may be defined as the threshold value.

[0009] The definition unit may define the threshold as an accumulated value corresponding to the specific developmental stage indicated by the actual data of the same crop variety.

[0010] The definition unit may define the threshold as an accumulated value corresponding to the specific developmental stage indicated by the actual crop data of the designated field.

[0011] The period from the reference date to the date of arrival of the developmental stage may include the overwintering period and the specific developmental stage immediately following the overwintering period.

[0012] The aforementioned crop may be an overwintering crop.

[0013] The overwintering crop may be either wheat or onions.

[0014] The aforementioned specific developmental stages may be, in wheat, the stem erection stage, panicle formation stage, internode elongation initiation stage, and meiosis stage, and in onions, any of the stem and leaf elongation stage and bulb enlargement stage.

[0015] The growth prediction method comprises: a first step in which a stage prediction unit predicts the growth stage of a crop; a second step in which a definition unit defines a threshold indicating the predicted date of the specific growth stage for the growth stage progression data predicted by the stage prediction unit, if a specific growth stage is included within the period from a reference date to the date on which the growth stage is reached; and a third step in which, when predicting the next growth stage, the stage prediction unit predicts the day on which the progression data of the next growth stage reaches the threshold as the specific growth stage. [Effects of the Invention]

[0016] According to the present invention, the accuracy of predicting developmental stages can be improved. [Brief explanation of the drawing]

[0017] [Figure 1] This figure shows an agricultural support system including a growth prediction device in an embodiment. [Figure 2A] This figure shows an example of a work plan screen. [Figure 2B] This figure shows an example of a work confirmation screen. [Figure 3] It is a diagram showing an example of the relationship between the main operations of wheat cultivation and the growth stages. [Figure 4] It is a diagram showing an example of the processing block for growth prediction by the DVI method. [Figure 5] It is a diagram for explaining the growth prediction of the present embodiment by comparing it with the conventional growth prediction. [Figure 6A] It is a diagram showing an example of the annual difference in the heading date. [Figure 6B] It is a diagram showing an example of the prediction result of the stem elongation stage in the conventional sequential growth prediction. [Figure 7] It is a diagram for explaining the conventional sequential growth prediction. [Figure 8A] It is a diagram for explaining the growth prediction of the present embodiment. [Figure 8B] It is a diagram showing the relationship between the transition data of the DVI value for predicting the heading date, the threshold value, and the specified value. [Figure 9] It is a diagram showing an example of the actual data of the stem elongation stage of crops (wheat) of multiple varieties. [Figure 10] It is a diagram showing an example of the distribution of the DVI value at the stem elongation stage. [Figure 11] It is a diagram showing an example of the transition of the DVI value. [Figure 12] It is a diagram showing an example of the actual data of the stem elongation stage of a single variety of crop. [Figure 13] It is a diagram showing an example of the determination table. [Figure 14] It is a diagram showing an example of the setting screen. [Figure 15] It is a flowchart showing the process of predicting the growth stage. [Figure 16] It is a diagram showing an example of the list confirmation screen.

Mode for Carrying Out the Invention

[0018] Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described based on the drawings.

[0019] Figure 1 shows an agricultural support system including a growth prediction device 4 in an embodiment. In Figure 1, the agricultural support system includes an agricultural support device 1. The agricultural support device 1 is a fixed computer such as a server or personal computer, or a portable terminal such as a smartphone, tablet, or PDA. In this embodiment, the agricultural support device 1 is a server. The agricultural support device 1 is a device that can support agricultural work, etc. External terminals 10 such as personal computers, smartphones, tablets, and PDAs can be connected to the agricultural support device 1.

[0020] The agricultural support device 1 comprises a work creation unit 2 and a work storage unit 3. The work creation unit 2 consists of electronic and electrical circuits provided in the agricultural support device 1, programs stored in the processing unit such as the CPU of the agricultural support device 1, and so on. The work storage unit 3 is a storage device such as a non-volatile memory.

[0021] The work creation unit 2 creates a work plan that includes at least the farm work, the scheduled date of implementation, and the field. The external terminal 10 connects to the agricultural support device 1 for communication when it receives a communication connection instruction from the administrator, worker, etc. When the administrator, worker, etc. issues a first command (a command to display the work plan) to the agricultural support device 1, the work creation unit 2 displays the work plan screen M1 on the external terminal 10, as shown in Figure 2A. The work plan screen M1 includes a work setting unit 11, a date setting unit 12, a field setting unit 13, and a time setting unit 14. The work setting unit 11 is the part that sets the farm work, and a predetermined farm work can be set by selecting a predetermined farm work from among the farm work that has been registered in advance.

[0022] Agricultural work refers to the tasks performed to cultivate crops (such as wheat, or vegetables like onions, cabbage, and broccoli), and includes tasks appropriate to the crop's developmental stage. Appropriate work (i.e., timely work) is necessary at each developmental stage to ensure stable crop yield and quality. These developmental stages are also called growth stages, developmental phases, or developmental periods.

[0023] For example, as shown in Figure 3, agricultural work for wheat includes sowing, herbicide application, wheat trampling, top dressing during tillering, soil preparation, panicle fertilization, Fusarium head blight control, grain fertilization, harvesting, drying, and processing. Furthermore, wheat has multiple developmental stages, including emergence, tillering, tillering, stem erection, heading, flowering, and maturity. Appropriate tasks are assigned according to each developmental stage. For example, during the emergence stage, herbicide application is necessary. During the tillering stage, wheat trampling, top dressing during tillering, soil preparation, and herbicide application are necessary. During the stem erection stage, panicle fertilization and soil preparation are necessary. Finally, during the heading stage, grain fertilization and Fusarium head blight control are necessary.

[0024] Returning to Figure 2A, the date setting unit 12 is the part that sets the scheduled date for carrying out the agricultural work set in the work setting unit 11. The scheduled date can be set by inputting the year, month, day, etc. The field setting unit 13 is the part that sets the field where the agricultural work will be carried out. For example, multiple fields are displayed on a pre-registered field map, and a predetermined field selected from among the multiple fields is set as the field where the agricultural work will be carried out. The time setting unit 14 is the part that sets the time period during which the agricultural work will be carried out. The time period can be set by inputting the time.

[0025] The work plan screen M1 includes a worker setting unit 15 for setting the workers who will perform the farm work, a machine setting unit 16 for setting the machines that will perform the farm work, and, if the farm work involves spraying a material, the machine setting unit for setting the material. It may also include a spraying material setting unit 17 for setting the name of the spraying material, and a spraying amount setting unit 18 for setting the amount of spraying material to be sprayed.

[0026] When the registration button 19 shown on the work plan screen M1 is selected, the work creation unit 2 creates a work plan using the information (content) set in the work setting unit 11, date setting unit 12, field setting unit 13, time setting unit 14, worker setting unit 15, machine setting unit 16, spray material setting unit 17, and spray amount setting unit 18. The work storage unit 3 stores the work plan (farm work, planned date of implementation, field, time slot, worker, machine, name of spray material, spray amount) created by the work creation unit 2. The work plan in the above embodiment is an example and is not limited thereto.

[0027] In this way, by displaying the work plan created by the work creation unit 2 of the agricultural support device 1 on the external terminal 10, managers, workers, etc., can confirm the work plan. For example, when the external terminal 10 connects to the agricultural support device 1 and issues a second command (a command to display the work confirmation screen M2) to the agricultural support device 1, the agricultural support device 1 displays the work confirmation screen M2 on the external terminal 10, as shown in Figure 2B.

[0028] The work confirmation screen M2 includes a field setting unit 13 and a work display unit 20. The work display unit 20 displays the work plan set for the field set in the field setting unit 13. The work display unit 20 displays agricultural work and the scheduled date of implementation in chronological order. Figure 2B shows an example of agricultural work for wheat, including sowing, top dressing, and harvesting.

[0029] As shown in Figure 1, the agricultural support device 1 is equipped with a growth prediction device 4. The growth prediction device 4 acquires environmental information indicating the field environment and predicts the state of the crop, i.e., the growth stage, based on the acquired environmental information. Environmental information includes meteorological information indicating the environment around the field. Meteorological information includes, for example, wind direction, wind speed, temperature, humidity, sunny, cloudy, rain, thunderstorms, snow, rainfall, snowfall, probability of precipitation, atmospheric pressure, atmospheric pressure pattern, etc. Growth stages include budding stage, tillering start, tillering stage, stem erection stage, panicle formation stage, internode elongation start stage, meiosis stage, heading stage, flowering stage, maturity stage, and harvest stage.

[0030] First, the developmental prediction device 4 predicts the developmental stage from environmental information, which will be explained below.

[0031] The growth prediction device 4 comprises an environmental information acquisition unit 5, a stage prediction unit 6, and a definition unit 7. The environmental information acquisition unit 5, the stage prediction unit 6, and the definition unit 7 are composed of electronic and electrical circuits provided in the agricultural support device 1, programs stored in the processing unit such as the CPU of the agricultural support device 1, and so on.

[0032] The environmental information acquisition unit 5 acquires environmental information for the field included in the work plan. For example, when an operator issues a command to acquire environmental information to the agricultural support device 1 via an external terminal 10, the environmental information acquisition unit 5 connects to the weather information server 30 that provides weather information and acquires weather information for the field up to the present (actual weather information) and weather information for the future (predicted weather information).

[0033] The stage prediction unit 6 predicts the developmental stage of a crop. Specifically, the stage prediction unit 6 predicts the date on which the cumulative value obtained by accumulating the numerical progress of crop development from a reference date reaches a predetermined value, and uses that date as the date of arrival of the developmental stage. For example, the stage prediction unit 6 predicts each developmental stage of wheat as shown in Figure 3. That is, the stage prediction unit 6 can predict the date of arrival of the germination stage (developmental stage) from the sowing date, the date of arrival of the next stem-standing stage (developmental stage) during the germination stage, the date of arrival of the next heading stage (developmental stage) during the stem-standing stage, and the date of arrival of the next flowering stage (developmental stage) during the heading stage. ru.

[0034] As shown in Figure 4, the environmental information acquisition unit 5 acquires weather data (temperature, day length data) for the field up to the present and future weather data (temperature, day length data), and outputs it to the stage prediction unit 6. Based on the input development data (sowing date, heading date, etc.) and the weather data from the environmental information acquisition unit 5, the stage prediction unit 6 determines the parameters, calculates the daily growth rate (DVR value) using a development prediction formula (one of the DVR (Development Rate) formulas 1 to 3 shown in Figure 5), and predicts the day on which the Development Index (DVI), which is the sum of these daily growth rates (DVR values), reaches a predetermined value as the predicted day (i.e., the arrival date).

[0035] Here, we will use Figure 5 to compare and explain the conventional sequential prediction method and the developmental prediction method of this embodiment. First, the conventional sequential prediction method predicts each developmental stage in order. More specifically, in the conventional sequential prediction method, as shown in Figure 5, the sowing date is used as the reference date (cumulative value = 0), and the day on which the developmental index (DVI), which is the sum of the daily growth rate (DVR value), reaches a threshold (= 1) is predicted as the date of arrival at the germination stage (developmental stage). Subsequently, this date of arrival at the germination stage is used as the reference date (cumulative value = 0), and the day on which the developmental index (DVI), which is the sum of the daily growth rate (DVR value), reaches a threshold (= 1) is predicted as the date of arrival at the stem erection stage (developmental stage). Next, the day on which the stem-standing stage is reached is used as the reference day (cumulative value = 0), and the day on which the growth index (DVI), calculated by accumulating the daily growth rate (DVR value), reaches the threshold (= 1) is predicted as the day on which the heading stage (developmental stage) is reached.

[0036] Using the previous sequential prediction method, as shown in Figure 6A, the heading date for variety B16 was predicted by setting the sowing date to the same day (for example, November 5th) for three years. Specifically, while the predicted heading date in the 2009 work plan was April 27th, the predicted date in 2020 was April 13th. Therefore, it was found that the previous sequential prediction method resulted in a two-week difference in the predicted heading date from year to year. Consequently, it is becoming difficult to perform appropriate work (i.e., timely work) at each developmental stage using the usual work plan.

[0037] The inventor then diligently researched the cause of this issue and found that, as shown in Figure 6B, there was a 22-day year-to-year difference in the stem-eruption stage of variety B3, and as shown in Figure 7, the prediction of heading was inaccurate due to the large discrepancy in the prediction of stem-eruption stage. In other words, it was found that it is necessary to predict the stem-eruption stage, which is a specific developmental stage, with high accuracy. On the other hand, it was found that there was little year-to-year difference when predicting heading from the budding stage. Therefore, the inventor came to the conclusion that by passing through the developmental stage to be predicted (e.g., heading) once and then defining a threshold p for reaching a specific developmental stage (e.g., stem-eruption stage), the influence of year-to-year differences in developmental prediction can be reduced.

[0038] Therefore, the method of this embodiment includes a definition unit 7 that predicts the date of arrival of the next heading stage (developmental stage) during the budding stage and sets a threshold p indicating the predicted date of the stem erection stage (developmental stage) by working backward. This makes it possible to predict the stem erection stage with higher accuracy compared to the conventional sequential prediction method.

[0039] In this embodiment, the growth prediction device 4 includes a definition unit 7. The definition unit 7 defines a threshold p indicating the predicted date of a specific growth stage (e.g., stem-erecting stage) for the growth stage transition data predicted by the stage prediction unit 6, if a specific growth stage (e.g., stem-erecting stage) is included within the period from the reference date to the date on which the growth stage of the heading stage is reached. When the stage prediction unit 6 predicts the growth stage of the next (i.e., next year's) heading stage, it predicts the day on which the growth stage transition data for the next (i.e., next year's) heading stage reaches the threshold p as a specific growth stage (e.g., stem-erecting stage). In other words, the stem-erecting stage is predicted.

[0040] As shown in Figure 8A, if a specific developmental stage (e.g., stem erection stage) is included within the period from the reference date to the date of arrival of the developmental stage (e.g., heading stage), the definition unit 7 inversely defines a threshold p indicating the predicted date of the specific developmental stage (e.g., stem erection stage) based on the cumulative value transition data from the reference date to the date of arrival of the developmental stage predicted by the stage prediction unit 6, using the cumulative value corresponding to the date of arrival of the specific developmental stage (e.g., stem erection stage) as shown in the actual crop data.

[0041] The stage prediction unit 6 determines the parameters of the development prediction formula shown in Figure 5 (here, formula 2, which uses temperature and day length) based on the budding period and heading period shown in Figure 8A. The stage prediction unit 6 may also use the development prediction formulas of formula 1 or formula 3 shown in Figure 5. The definition unit 7 defines the cumulative value (DVI value) accumulated by the above prediction formula as the threshold p, which corresponds to the date on which the actual stem erection stage was reached. The definition of the threshold p will be described later.

[0042] When the stage prediction unit 6 predicts the developmental stage for the next crop (i.e., the next crop), it predicts the day on which the cumulative value of the next developmental stage reaches a threshold p as a specific developmental stage, and predicts the day on which the cumulative value reaches a predetermined value as the date on which the next developmental stage will be reached. As shown in Figure 8A, the stage prediction unit 6 predicts the stem erection stage from the heading stage prediction model based on the corresponding threshold p for the next crop and beyond.

[0043] As shown in Figure 8B, the stage prediction unit 6, in predicting the development of heading in the next crop, defines a threshold p that indicates the date of arrival of a specific developmental stage (e.g., stem erection stage) by working backward from the definition unit 7, sets a predetermined value that indicates the date of arrival of heading in the next crop, predicts the day on which the cumulative value (DVI value) in the next crop reaches the threshold p as the stem erection stage, and predicts the day on which it reaches the predetermined value as the date of arrival of heading.

[0044] Here, we will explain the definition of threshold p by Definition Unit 7. As shown in Figure 9, Definition Unit 7 defines threshold p as the average value obtained by averaging the cumulative values ​​(DVI values) of multiple varieties B1 to B7 that correspond to the dates on which specific developmental stages are reached, as shown in the actual crop data for each of the multiple varieties B1 to B7. As shown in Figure 9, the cumulative values ​​for the days when the stems were actually erected for multiple varieties B1 to B7 of wheat were "0.613", "0.573", "0.544", "0.540", "0.590", "0.547", and "0.572". The mean, maximum, minimum, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation of these cumulative values ​​were "0.568", "0.613", "0.540", "0.02506", and "4.58%". Furthermore, according to the distribution of DVI values ​​for the stem-eruption stage shown in Figure 10, the average DVI value for the stem-eruption stage can be estimated to be "0.58". As shown in Figure 11, the average DVI value for the stem-standing stage of multiple wheat varieties B1 to B7 ranged from "0.540" to "0.613" for approximately 7 days. Therefore, it was found that setting the average DVI value for the stem-standing stage of multiple wheat varieties B1 to B7 to "0.58" allows for prediction with an error of approximately 3 to 5 days.

[0045] Furthermore, as shown in Figure 12, the cumulative values ​​for the days when the stems were actually erect for varieties B11 to B17, for which only single data is available, were "0.54", "0.63", "0.42", "0.51", "0.56", "0.56", and "0.58". The mean, maximum, minimum, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation of these cumulative values ​​were "0.559", "0.670", "0.420", "0.04976", and "8.91%". Note that the definition section 7 may define the cumulative value corresponding to the date of reaching a specific developmental stage indicated by the performance data of a single crop variety as the threshold p.

[0046] The agricultural support device 1 is equipped with a setting storage unit 8. The setting storage unit 8 is a storage device such as a non-volatile memory provided in the agricultural support device 1. As shown in Figure 13, the setting storage unit 8 contains The system stores a determination table T10 for determining the developmental stage. The determination table T10 stores the relationship between the developmental stage at the heading stage, a threshold p for a specific developmental stage (stem erection stage) based on the cumulative value set for the developmental stage at the heading stage, and a predetermined value indicating the date on which the developmental stage at the heading stage is reached. For example, the determination table T10 includes the developmental stage at the heading stage, including the stem erection stage, a threshold p for determining when the stem erection stage has been reached, and a predetermined value indicating the date on which the developmental stage at the heading stage is reached. In other words, the definition unit 7 defines the threshold p stored in the determination table T10 as the threshold p for determining when the stem erection stage has been reached. Furthermore, the relationship between the threshold p and the predetermined value is threshold p < predetermined value.

[0047] The setting memory unit 8 stores performance data for multiple crop varieties B1 to B7 shown in Figure 9, and performance data for crop varieties B11 to B17, for which there is only a single performance record, as shown in Figure 12.

[0048] As shown in Figure 14, for example, when an external terminal 10 connects to the agricultural support device 1 and issues a third command (a command to display the setting screen M3) to the agricultural support device 1, the stage prediction unit 6 displays the setting screen M3. The setting screen M3 is a screen for setting the relationship between the development stage of the judgment table T10, the threshold p, and the specified value, and includes a stage display unit 31A that displays the development stage, an input unit 31B for inputting the threshold p and the specified value, and a reference date input unit 31C for inputting the reference date.

[0049] Input unit 31B allows input of an arbitrary threshold p for a specific developmental stage (e.g., stem erection stage), and by changing the threshold p entered in input unit 31B, the threshold p for a specific developmental stage (e.g., stem erection stage) can be defined. Furthermore, input unit 31B allows input of an arbitrary default value for a developmental stage (e.g., heading stage), and by changing the default value entered in input unit 31B, the relationship between the developmental stage and the default value can be changed. Reference date input unit 31C allows input of a reference date. For example, when predicting the developmental stage for heading, the date on which the budding stage is reached is entered. The setting storage unit 8 stores the default value entered in input unit 31B and the reference date entered in reference date input unit 31C in association with each other.

[0050] The settings screen M3 includes a developmental stage input section 31D for inputting developmental stages and a farm work input section 31E for inputting arbitrary farm work corresponding to the inputted developmental stage. For example, if the tillering stage is entered in the developmental stage input section 31D, the farm work input section 31E can input the following as farm work for the tillering stage, as shown in Figure 3: wheat trampling, tillering stage top dressing, soil filling, and herbicide application. If the stem erection stage is entered in the developmental stage input section 31D, the farm work input section 31E can input the following as farm work for the stem erection stage, as shown in Figure 3: top dressing and soil filling. If the heading stage is entered in the developmental stage input section 31D, the farm work input section 31E can input the following as farm work for the heading stage, as shown in Figure 3: Fusarium head blight control and grain fertilization. The setting memory unit 8 stores the growth stage input into the growth stage input unit 31D and the corresponding farm work input into the farm work input unit 31E in association with each other.

[0051] On the settings screen M3, when the setting button 32 is selected, the relationship between the developmental stage, threshold p, and specified value in the judgment table T10, the reference date, and the agricultural work corresponding to the developmental stage are set. In other words, the stage prediction unit 6 can predict the developmental stage based on the relationship between the scheduled date of agricultural work (reference date) and weather information. For example, the stage prediction unit 6 predicts that the day the cumulative value reaches threshold p is the day the stem-standing stage is reached, and the worker performs topdressing work during the stem-standing stage. It also predicts that the day the cumulative value reaches the specified value is the day the heading stage is reached, and the worker performs grain fertilization work during the heading stage.

[0052] Here, the development prediction device 4 performs a process to predict the developmental stage of the next crop (for example, heading stage). Let's explain using Figure 15. The stage prediction unit 6 of the growth prediction device 4 predicts the growth stage based on a predetermined reference date and the progression of weather information (actual weather information, predicted weather information) from the reference date. As shown in Figure 15, if the reference date is, for example, 11 / 24, the stage prediction unit 6 obtains and refers to weather information (actual weather information, predicted weather information) from the environmental information acquisition unit 5 after the reference date (for example, 11 / 24) (S1). The stage prediction unit 6 calculates the cumulative value of predetermined items (for example, temperature, day length) from the reference date (11 / 24) based on the referenced weather information (S2). The stage prediction unit 6 determines whether the calculated cumulative value has reached the threshold p for a specific growth stage (for example, stem erection stage), that is, the threshold p defined by the definition unit 7 (S3). If the cumulative value has not reached the threshold p (S3, No), the stage prediction unit 6 returns to S2. On the other hand, if the cumulative value reaches the threshold p (S3, Yes), the stage prediction unit 6 determines the day when a specific developmental stage (e.g., the stem-erecting stage) has been reached (i.e., the day when the stem-erecting stage began) (S4). On the other hand, if the cumulative value does not reach the threshold p (S3, No), the stage prediction unit 6 returns to S2.

[0053] The stage prediction unit 6 determines whether the predetermined developmental stage (in this case, the heading stage) has reached a specified value (S5). If the cumulative value has not reached the specified value (S3, No), the stage prediction unit 6 returns to S2. On the other hand, if the cumulative value has reached the specified value (S5, Yes), the stage prediction unit 6 determines the day the predetermined developmental stage (the heading stage) was reached (i.e., the day the heading stage began) (S6). In other words, the stage prediction unit 6 predicts the date of arrival at a specific developmental stage (for example, the stem erection stage) and the date of arrival at the heading stage developmental stage based on the transition value, which is a numerical representation of the changes in weather information from the reference date.

[0054] In the above-described embodiment, the system includes a stage prediction unit 6 that predicts the developmental stage of a crop, and a definition unit 7 that, if a specific developmental stage is included within the period from the reference date to the date on which the developmental stage is reached, defines a threshold p that indicates the predicted date for the specific developmental stage based on the developmental stage transition data predicted by the stage prediction unit 6. When predicting the next developmental stage, the stage prediction unit 6 predicts the day on which the developmental stage transition data for the next developmental stage reaches the threshold p as the specific developmental stage.

[0055] According to the above configuration, the stage prediction unit 6 predicts the developmental stage of the crop. Therefore, it is possible to obtain transitional data for estimating the date on which the developmental stage will be reached. The definition unit 7 defines a threshold p indicating the predicted date for a specific developmental stage based on the transitional data of the developmental stage predicted by the stage prediction unit 6, if a specific developmental stage is included within the period from the reference date to the date on which the developmental stage will be reached. Therefore, the threshold p can be set to a more accurate value. When predicting the next developmental stage, the stage prediction unit 6 predicts the date on which the transitional data of the next developmental stage reaches the newly defined threshold p as the specific developmental stage. Therefore, it is possible to reduce the prediction error for the date on which a specific developmental stage will be reached, which is included within the period on which the developmental stage will be reached. Thus, the prediction accuracy of the developmental stage can be improved.

[0056] Furthermore, the stage prediction unit 6 predicts the date on which the cumulative value obtained by accumulating the numerical progress of crop growth from a reference date reaches a predetermined value as the date on which the crop reaches a growth stage. The definition unit 7, if a specific growth stage is included within the period from the reference date to the date on which the growth stage reaches, defines the cumulative value corresponding to the date on which the specific growth stage reaches, as indicated by the actual crop data, in the progress data of the cumulative value from the reference date to the date on which the growth stage reaches, as predicted by the stage prediction unit 6, as a threshold p indicating the predicted date for that specific growth stage. When predicting the next growth stage, the stage prediction unit 6 predicts the date on which the cumulative value of that next growth stage reaches threshold p as the specific growth stage, and predicts the date on which the cumulative value reaches a predetermined value as the date on which that next growth stage reaches.

[0057] According to the above configuration, the stage prediction unit 6 predicts the date on which the cumulative value obtained by accumulating the numerical progress of crop development from a reference date reaches a predetermined value as the date on which the crop will reach its development stage. Therefore, it is possible to obtain progress data of the cumulative value of the development stage. If a specific development stage is included within the period from the reference date to the date on which the development stage will reach, the definition unit 7 defines the cumulative value corresponding to the date on which the specific development stage will reach, as shown in the actual crop data, as a threshold p indicating the predicted date of the specific development stage in the progress data of the development stage predicted by the stage prediction unit 6. Therefore, the threshold p can be set to a more accurate value. When predicting the next development stage, the stage prediction unit 6 predicts the date on which the cumulative value of the next development stage reaches the threshold p as the specific development stage. Therefore, it is possible to reduce the prediction error of the date on which the specific development stage will reach that development stage included in the development stage. In addition, when predicting the next development stage, the stage prediction unit 6 predicts the date on which the cumulative value reaches a predetermined value as the date on which the next development stage will reach. Therefore, the prediction error for the date of reaching a developmental stage can be reduced. Consequently, the accuracy of developmental stage prediction can be improved. Furthermore, since the conventional method of predicting each developmental stage sequentially is not adopted, the problems associated with the conventional developmental stage prediction method are avoided. In other words, the problem of low prediction accuracy for specific developmental stages and the problem of the overall prediction error for developmental stages being enlarged due to the influence of the prediction error for specific developmental stages can be solved.

[0058] Furthermore, the definition unit 7 defines the threshold p as the average value obtained by averaging the cumulative values ​​of multiple varieties B1 to B7 that correspond to specific developmental stages indicated by the actual performance data of each of the multiple varieties B1 to B7.

[0059] According to the above configuration, a threshold p can be defined that covers multiple varieties B1 to B7. Furthermore, since the threshold p is defined based on actual data of multiple varieties B1 to B7, the reliability of the threshold p can be increased. Therefore, the prediction error of the growth stage of crops for newly predicted varieties can be reduced.

[0060] Furthermore, according to the above-described growth prediction method, the stage prediction unit 6 performs a first step (S6 in Figure 15) in which it predicts the growth stage of the crop; the definition unit 7 performs a second step (defining the threshold p in the input unit 31B in Figure 14) in which, if a specific growth stage is included within the period from the reference date to the date the growth stage is reached, it defines a threshold p indicating the predicted date of the specific growth stage for the growth stage transition data predicted by the stage prediction unit 6; and the stage prediction unit 6 performs a third step (S4 in Figure 15) in which, when predicting the next growth stage, it predicts the day on which the transition data of the next growth stage reaches the threshold p as the specific growth stage.

[0061] According to the above configuration, in the first step, the stage prediction unit 6 predicts the developmental stage of the crop. This allows for the acquisition of transitional data to estimate the date on which the developmental stage will be reached. In the second step, if a specific developmental stage is included within the period from the reference date to the date on which the developmental stage will be reached, the definition unit 7 defines a threshold p indicating the predicted date for that specific developmental stage based on the transitional data of the developmental stage predicted by the stage prediction unit 6. This allows for a more accurate threshold p. In the third step, when predicting the next developmental stage, the stage prediction unit 6 predicts the date on which the transitional data for that next developmental stage reaches the threshold p as the specific developmental stage. This reduces the prediction error for the date on which the specific developmental stage will be reached, which is included in the developmental stage. Therefore, the prediction accuracy of the developmental stage can be improved.

[0062] Furthermore, the definition unit 7 may define the threshold p as an accumulated value corresponding to a specific developmental stage indicated by the performance data of a single crop variety. For example, even if the performance data of variety B15: Yumichikara shown in Figure 12 is defined as "0.56" as the threshold p for a single crop variety, That's good. For example, it can be defined by entering "0.56" into the input unit 31B shown in Figure 14. The actual data "0.56" is the cumulative value (DVI value) for the days when variety B15 was actually in the stem-standing stage.

[0063] According to the above configuration, the definition unit 7 defines a threshold p as an accumulated value corresponding to a specific developmental stage indicated by the actual data of a single crop variety. Therefore, it is possible to define a threshold p specific to a single variety. Consequently, it is possible to reduce the prediction error of the developmental stage of the same or similar crop as a single variety.

[0064] Furthermore, the definition unit 7 may define a cumulative value corresponding to a specific developmental stage indicated by the actual data of the same crop variety as the threshold p. For example, if the crop in the field is variety B7: Yumekaori as shown in Figure 9, the actual data of the same variety B7: Yumekaori, i.e., "0.57", may be defined as the threshold p. For example, this can be defined by inputting "0.57" into the input unit 31B shown in Figure 14. The actual data "0.57" is the cumulative value (DVI value) for the day when variety B7 was actually in the stem-standing stage.

[0065] According to the above configuration, the definition unit 7 defines a threshold p as an accumulated value corresponding to a specific developmental stage indicated by actual data of the same crop variety. Therefore, it is possible to define a threshold p specific to the same crop variety. Consequently, it is possible to reduce the prediction error of the developmental stage of the same crop variety.

[0066] The definition unit 7 may define a threshold p as an accumulated value corresponding to a specific developmental stage indicated by the actual crop data of a specified field. The setting storage unit 8 only needs to store the fields set in the field setting unit 13 in association with the actual crop data of those fields. For example, this actual data is the accumulated value (DVI value) for the days when the crop in that field was actually in the stem-standing stage. For example, when a field is specified on the external terminal 10, the actual crop data of the field stored in the setting storage unit 8 is displayed, and the threshold p can be defined by inputting this displayed actual data (accumulated value) into the input unit 31B shown in Figure 14.

[0067] According to the above configuration, the definition unit 7 defines a threshold p as an accumulated value corresponding to a specific developmental stage indicated by the actual crop data of a designated field. Therefore, a threshold p specific to a designated field can be defined. Consequently, the prediction error of the developmental stage of crops in fields that are the same as or close to the designated field can be reduced.

[0068] When the external terminal 10 connects to the agricultural support device 1 and issues a fourth command (a command to display the list confirmation screen M4) to the agricultural support device 1, the growth prediction device 4 transmits data indicating the list confirmation screen M4 to the external terminal 10, as shown in Figure 16. The external terminal 10 displays the list confirmation screen M4 based on the received data. The list confirmation screen M4 is a screen for displaying a list of each field and the threshold p for a specific growth stage (e.g., stem erection stage) for each field. By viewing the list confirmation screen M4, the operator can check the relationship between each field and its threshold p all at once. In addition, the list confirmation screen M4 may also display each field, the threshold p for each field, and the crop variety together. In this case, the field, threshold p, and crop variety can be checked together.

[0069] In the above embodiment, it is possible to reduce the prediction error of the developmental stage of wheat, which is an example of an overwintering crop. However, the overwintering crop is not limited to wheat. For example, it may be an overwintering crop such as onions. In this case, it is possible to reduce the prediction error of the developmental stage of onions.

[0070] Furthermore, while a specific developmental stage is defined as the stem erection stage in wheat, it is not limited to this. For example, a specific developmental stage could be the panicle formation stage, the start of internode elongation, or the meiosis stage. Either is acceptable. In the case of onions, either the stem and leaf elongation stage or the bulb enlargement stage is acceptable.

[0071] According to the above configuration, it is possible to reduce the prediction error in the arrival dates of the stem erection stage, panicle formation stage, internode elongation start stage, and meiosis stage in wheat, and the stem and leaf elongation stage and bulb enlargement stage in onions.

[0072] The embodiments disclosed herein should be considered in all respects to be illustrative and not restrictive. The scope of the present invention is indicated by the claims rather than by the foregoing description, and all modifications within the meaning and scope equivalent to the claims are intended to be included. [Explanation of Symbols]

[0073] 1: Agricultural support equipment 2: Task Creation Department 3: Working memory 4: Growth prediction device 5:Environmental information acquisition department 6: Stage Prediction Department 7 :Definition part 8: Setting memory unit 10: External terminals 30: Weather information server M1: Work plan screen M2: Work confirmation screen M3: Settings screen p: threshold T10: Decision Table

Claims

1. A stage prediction unit that predicts the developmental stage of crops, If a specific developmental stage is included within the period from the reference date to the date of reaching the aforementioned developmental stage, the definition unit defines a threshold indicating the predicted date of the specific developmental stage for the developmental stage progression data predicted by the stage prediction unit, Equipped with, The stage prediction unit is a developmental prediction device that, when predicting the next developmental stage, predicts the day on which the progress data of the next developmental stage reaches the threshold as the specific developmental stage.

2. The aforementioned stage prediction unit predicts the date on which the cumulative value obtained by accumulating the numerical progress of crop growth from a reference date reaches a predetermined value, and sets this date as the date on which the crop reaches its growth stage. The definition unit defines, if the specific developmental stage is included within the period from the reference date to the date the developmental stage is reached, as a threshold indicating the predicted date of the specific developmental stage, in the cumulative value transition data from the reference date to the date the developmental stage is reached, as predicted by the stage prediction unit, and the cumulative value corresponding to the date the specific developmental stage is reached, as shown in the actual crop data. The developmental prediction device according to claim 1, wherein the stage prediction unit, when predicting the next developmental stage, predicts the day on which the cumulative value of the next developmental stage reaches the threshold as the specific developmental stage, and predicts the day on which the cumulative value reaches the predetermined value as the date on which the next developmental stage will be reached.

3. The growth prediction device according to claim 2, wherein the definition unit defines the threshold as the average value obtained by averaging the cumulative values ​​of multiple crop varieties corresponding to the specific growth stage indicated by the actual performance data of multiple crop varieties.

4. The growth prediction device according to claim 2, wherein the definition unit defines an accumulated value corresponding to a specific growth stage indicated by performance data of a single crop variety as the threshold value.

5. The growth prediction device according to claim 2, wherein the definition unit defines an accumulated value corresponding to the specific growth stage indicated by the actual data of the same crop variety as the threshold value.

6. The growth prediction device according to claim 2, wherein the definition unit defines an accumulated value corresponding to the specific growth stage indicated by the actual data of crops in a designated field as the threshold.

7. The growth prediction device according to any one of claims 1 to 6, wherein the period from the reference date to the date of arrival of the growth stage includes the overwintering period and the specific growth stage immediately following the overwintering period.

8. The growth prediction device according to any one of claims 1 to 6, wherein the crop is an overwintering crop.

9. The growth prediction device according to claim 8, wherein the overwintering crop is either wheat or onion.

10. The developmental prediction device according to any one of claims 1 to 6, wherein the specific developmental stage is, in the case of wheat, the stem erection stage, the panicle formation stage, the internode elongation initiation stage, and the meiosis stage, and in the case of onions, the stem and leaf elongation stage and the bulb enlargement stage.

11. The stage prediction unit performs the first step of predicting the developmental stage of the crop, The definition unit states that a specific developmental stage occurs within the period from the reference date to the date on which the developmental stage is reached. If included, the second step is to define a threshold indicating the predicted date of the specific developmental stage for the developmental stage progression data predicted by the stage prediction unit, The developmental prediction method comprises a third step in which the stage prediction unit predicts the day on which the progress data of the next developmental stage reaches the threshold when predicting the next developmental stage, as the specific developmental stage.

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