Estimation device

Abstract

This estimation device comprises: a power outage estimation unit that estimates area power outage information, indicating whether or not a power outage has occurred in each area, on the basis of power outage information in a wireless communication base station; an area population estimation unit that estimates an area population on the basis of location information of mobile wireless communication terminals located in each area; an evacuee population estimation unit that estimates an evacuee population of each evacuation shelter on the basis of a correspondence relationship between the evacuation shelter and each area, the area population, and area power outage information; a power consumption estimation unit that estimates the number of devices in use among power-using devices in the evacuation shelter for each type of device on the basis of the evacuee population, and estimates the power consumption in the evacuation shelter by multiplying the number of devices in use by the power consumption of the power-using devices; and an output unit that outputs power consumption information indicating the power consumption of each evacuation shelter.

Description

[Technical Field]

[0001] This invention relates to an estimation device for estimating power consumption in evacuation shelters. [Background technology]

[0002] To prepare for power outages during disasters, it is recommended to install stationary battery storage systems in evacuation centers where people take refuge, critical infrastructure facilities, and important facilities operated by the government and other public entities. Since the capacity of storage batteries is limited, if a power outage persists for an extended period without power supply, the power will be depleted, making it difficult to operate facilities. Patent Document 1 discloses a technology for supplying power to stationary storage batteries. [Prior art documents] [Patent Documents]

[0003] [Patent Document 1] Japanese Patent Publication No. 2021-124752 [Overview of the Initiative] [Problems that the invention aims to solve]

[0004] In the technology described in Patent Document 1, when a large-scale power outage occurs during a disaster, a discharge command is issued to a power source such as an electric vehicle when the remaining capacity of a stationary battery reaches a predetermined value, thereby enabling power supply to the battery. However, in the technology described in Patent Document 1, a command is issued to the electric vehicle only when the remaining capacity of the battery reaches a predetermined threshold, so it was not possible to optimize the destination of the electric vehicle prior to the timing when power supply is needed. Furthermore, if the power consumption trend during a disaster differs from that under normal circumstances, the threshold value for the remaining capacity of the battery, which is set in advance as the trigger for issuing a command to the electric vehicle, may not be the optimal value, and in that case, it was difficult to supply power at the appropriate time.

[0005] Therefore, the present invention has been made in view of the above problems, and aims to enable timely power supply, etc., by estimating the power consumption in evacuation shelters equipped with storage batteries. [Means for solving the problem]

[0006] To solve the above problems, an estimation device according to one embodiment of the present invention is an estimation device for estimating power consumption in evacuation shelters, comprising: a power outage estimation unit that estimates area power outage information indicating whether or not a power outage has occurred for each given geographically divided area based on power outage information indicating whether or not a power outage has occurred at a wireless communication base station; an area population estimation unit that estimates the area population, which is the population of each area, based on area information indicating the number of mobile wireless communication terminals located in each area; an evacuation population estimation unit that estimates the evacuation population, which is the population that evacuates to each evacuation shelter, based on the correspondence between the evacuation shelter and each area, as well as the area population and area power outage information of each area; a power consumption estimation unit that estimates the number of power-using devices that use electricity in the evacuation shelter based on the evacuation population for each type of power-using device, and estimates the power consumption in the evacuation shelter by multiplying the number of power-using devices by the power consumption of a given power-using device; and an output unit that outputs power consumption information indicating the power consumption of each evacuation shelter.

[0007] According to the above configuration, the presence or absence of power outages in each area is recognized based on power outage information from wireless communication base stations. Then, based on the area occupancy information for each area, the area population of the area experiencing a power outage can be estimated, and based on the correspondence between the area and the evacuation shelter, the evacuation population at each evacuation shelter can be estimated. Since the number of devices used at an evacuation shelter depends on the evacuation population, the power consumption trends at each evacuation shelter can be understood by estimating the number of devices using power-consuming equipment based on the estimated evacuation population. Consequently, timely power supply to the evacuation shelters' batteries becomes possible. [Effects of the Invention]

[0008] According to one embodiment of this disclosure, timely power supply and other measures can be provided by estimating the power consumption in evacuation shelters equipped with storage batteries.

Brief Description of the Drawings

[0009] [Figure 1] It is a diagram showing an example of the device configuration of a system including the estimation device of the present embodiment. [Figure 2] It is a block diagram showing the functional configuration of the estimation device of the present embodiment. [Figure 3] It is a hardware block diagram of the estimation device. [Figure 4] It is a diagram showing an example of power outage information indicating the presence or absence of power outage occurrence in each wireless communication base station. [Figure 5] It is a diagram schematically showing a group of areas partitioning a given geographical range and the positions of wireless communication base stations. [Figure 6] It is a diagram schematically showing an example of the power outage probability estimated based on the correspondence between the positions of wireless communication base stations and the wiring classes associated with each area. [Figure 7] It is a diagram schematically showing the correspondence between a group of areas and the geographical ranges for which people take refuge in each evacuation shelter. [Figure 8] It is a diagram showing an example of evacuation shelter information including the capacity of each evacuation shelter and the number of power-consuming devices. [Figure 9] It is a diagram showing an example of the estimated evacuation population and the number of devices used in each evacuation shelter. [Figure 10] It is a diagram showing an example of power consumption information. [Figure 11] It is a flowchart showing the processing content of the estimation method in the estimation device. [Figure 12] It is a diagram showing the configuration of the estimation program.

Embodiments for Carrying Out the Invention

[0010] Embodiments of the estimation device according to the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings. In addition, when possible, the same parts are denoted by the same reference numerals, and redundant descriptions are omitted.

[0011] FIG. 1 is a diagram showing an example of the device configuration of a system including an estimation device. As shown in FIG. 1, system 1 includes an estimation device 10, a wireless communication base station group ST, and an external information server SV. The estimation device 10 is configured to be able to transmit and receive information with the wireless communication base station group ST and the external information server SV via a network N. The estimation device 10 is a device that estimates the power consumption in a shelter where people take refuge during a disaster or the like.

[0012] The wireless communication base station group ST includes a plurality of wireless communication base stations sta, stb, stc, ···. The wireless communication base station is a device that relays and manages the wireless communication of mobile wireless communication terminals. The wireless communication base station has a device that can monitor the power supply status such as a rectifier. The rectifier etc. monitors the power status regarding the power supplied to the wireless communication base station and the occurrence status of errors in various devices provided in the wireless communication base station, and can obtain power outage information indicating the presence or absence of a power outage and device failure information indicating the presence or absence of a device failure.

[0013] Since the wireless communication base stations are installed at intervals of about several hundred meters in the communicable area of the mobile communication terminal, it is possible to recognize the presence or absence of a power outage in the communicable area by referring to the power outage information etc.

[0014] The external information server SV is a device that acquires and accumulates disaster information such as the presence or absence of a disaster, disaster occurrence area information indicating the geographical range where a disaster has occurred, and disaster scale information indicating the scale of the disaster. The external information server SV transmits the disaster information to the estimation device 10.

[0015] FIG. 2 is a block diagram showing the functional configuration of the estimation device 10. As shown in FIG. 2, the estimation device 10 includes a power outage information acquisition unit 11, a power outage estimation unit 12, a disaster information acquisition unit 13, an in-range information acquisition unit 14, an area population estimation unit 15, an evacuation population estimation unit 16, a power consumption estimation unit 17, and an output unit 18. The estimation device 10 is configured to be able to communicate with a shelter information storage unit 20. The shelter information storage unit 20 is a storage means that stores shelter information. The shelter information will be described later by referring to FIGS. 7 and 8.

[0016] Each of the functional units 11 to 18 included in the estimation device 10 may be configured in a single device or distributed across multiple devices. Furthermore, the shelter information storage unit 20 may be included in the estimation device 10 or configured in a separate device capable of communicating with the estimation device 10.

[0017] The block diagram shown in Figure 2 represents functional units. These functional blocks (components) are realized by any combination of at least one of hardware and software. Furthermore, the method of realizing each functional block is not particularly limited. That is, each functional block may be realized using one device that is physically or logically coupled, or it may be realized using two or more physically or logically separated devices that are directly or indirectly connected (for example, using wired or wireless connections). A functional block may also be realized by combining the above one device or the above multiple devices with software.

[0018] Functions include, but are not limited to, judgment, decision, judgment, calculation, calculation, processing, derivation, investigation, exploration, confirmation, reception, transmission, output, access, resolution, selection, selection, establishment, comparison, assumption, expectation, assumption, broadcasting, notifying, communicating, forwarding, configuring, reconfiguring, allocating (mapping), and assigning. For example, a functional block (configuration part) that enables transmission is called a transmitting unit or transmitter. As mentioned above, the method of implementation is not particularly limited.

[0019] For example, the estimation device 10 in one embodiment of the present invention may function as a computer. Figure 3 shows an example of the hardware configuration of the estimation device 10 according to this embodiment. The estimation device 10 may be physically configured as a computer device including a processor 1001, memory 1002, storage 1003, communication device 1004, input device 1005, output device 1006, bus 1007, etc.

[0020] In the following explanation, the term "device" can be replaced with "circuit," "device," "unit," etc. The hardware configuration of the estimated device 10 may include one or more of the devices shown in Figure 3, or it may be configured to omit some of the devices.

[0021] Each function in the estimation device 10 is realized by loading predetermined software (programs) onto hardware such as the processor 1001 and memory 1002, causing the processor 1001 to perform calculations and control communication by the communication device 1004, as well as the reading and / or writing of data to the memory 1002 and storage 1003.

[0022] The processor 1001 controls the entire computer, for example, by running an operating system. The processor 1001 may consist of a central processing unit (CPU) that includes interfaces with peripheral devices, control units, arithmetic units, registers, etc. For example, the various functional units 11 to 18 shown in Figure 2 may be implemented by the processor 1001.

[0023] Furthermore, the processor 1001 reads programs (program code), software modules, and data from the storage 1003 and / or communication device 1004 into the memory 1002 and executes various processes accordingly. The program used is one that causes the computer to execute at least a part of the operations described in the above embodiment. For example, each functional unit 11 to 19 of the estimation device 10 may be stored in the memory 1002 and implemented by a control program that runs on the processor 1001. Although the above processes have been described as being executed by one processor 1001, they may be executed simultaneously or sequentially by two or more processors 1001. The processor 1001 may be implemented on one or more chips. The program may also be transmitted from a network via a telecommunications line.

[0024] Memory 1002 is a computer-readable recording medium and may consist of at least one of the following: ROM (Read Only Memory), EPROM (Erasable Programmable ROM), EEPROM (Electrically Erasable Programmable ROM), RAM (Random Access Memory), etc. Memory 1002 may also be called a register, cache, main memory, etc. Memory 1002 can store executable programs (program code), software modules, etc., for carrying out the estimation method according to one embodiment of the present invention.

[0025] The storage 1003 is a computer-readable recording medium and may consist of at least one of the following: an optical disc such as a CD-ROM (Compact Disc ROM), a hard disk drive, a flexible disk, a magneto-optical disk (e.g., a compact disc, a digital multipurpose disc, a Blu-ray® disc), a smart card, flash memory (e.g., a card, a stick, a key drive), a floppy® disk, a magnetic strip, etc. The storage 1003 may also be called an auxiliary storage device. The above-mentioned storage medium may be, for example, a database, server, or other suitable medium including memory 1002 and / or storage 1003.

[0026] The communication device 1004 is hardware (transceiver / receiver device) for communicating between computers via a wired and / or wireless network, and is also referred to as a network device, network controller, network card, communication module, etc.

[0027] The input device 1005 is an input device that accepts input from an external source (e.g., a keyboard, mouse, microphone, switch, button, sensor, etc.). The output device 1006 is an output device that outputs to an external source (e.g., a display, speaker, LED lamp, etc.). The input device 1005 and the output device 1006 may be configured as an integrated unit (e.g., a touch panel).

[0028] Furthermore, each device, such as the processor 1001 and the memory 1002, is connected by a bus 1007 for communicating information. The bus 1007 may consist of a single bus or different buses may be used for communication between devices.

[0029] Furthermore, the estimation device 10 may be configured to include hardware such as a microprocessor, a digital signal processor (DSP), an ASIC (Application Specific Integrated Circuit), a PLD (Programmable Logic Device), or an FPGA (Field Programmable Gate Array), and some or all of each functional block may be realized by such hardware. For example, the processor 1001 may be implemented using at least one of these pieces of hardware.

[0030] Referring again to Figure 2, the functional parts of the estimation device 10 will be explained. The power outage information acquisition unit 11 acquires power outage information indicating whether or not a power outage has occurred at the wireless communication base station. Figure 4 is a diagram showing an example of power outage information that can be acquired from the wireless communication base station group ST.

[0031] The power outage information acquisition unit 11 acquires power outage information from each wireless communication base station in the wireless communication base station group ST. In the example shown in Figure 4, the power outage information acquisition unit 11 acquires power outage information from wireless communication base station sta, indicating that the power outage status is "present" and the equipment failure status is "absent". The power outage information acquisition unit 11 also acquires power outage information from wireless communication base station stb, indicating that the power outage status is "present" and the equipment failure status is "absent". The power outage information acquisition unit 11 also acquires power outage information from wireless communication base station stc, indicating that the power outage status is "absent" and the equipment failure status is "present".

[0032] By acquiring the power outage information illustrated in Figure 4, the estimation device 10 can recognize that a power outage has occurred at the wireless communication base stations sta and stb. Alternatively, the estimation device 10 may recognize that a power outage has occurred at the wireless communication base station when the power outage condition is "present" and the equipment failure condition is "absent".

[0033] The power outage estimation unit 12 estimates area power outage information, which indicates whether or not a power outage has occurred in each given geographically divided area, based on power outage information indicating whether or not a power outage has occurred at a wireless communication base station. Specifically, the power outage estimation unit 12 acquires location information of a wireless communication base station where a power outage has occurred as power outage location information indicating the location of the power outage, and estimates area power outage information by calculating the power outage probability, which is the probability that a power outage has occurred in each area, based on the positional relationship between the location indicated in the power outage location information and each area.

[0034] Figure 5 is a schematic diagram showing the locations of area group M, which consists of multiple areas obtained by dividing a given geographical area into a mesh, and wireless communication base stations. As shown in Figure 5, area group M consists of multiple areas m. The power outage estimation unit 12 acquires location information of wireless communication base stations sta and stb where power outages are occurring as power outage location information. The power outage estimation unit 12 may acquire the location information of wireless communication base stations from the wireless communication base stations themselves, or from other devices that manage and store information about wireless communication base stations.

[0035] The power outage estimation unit 12 may calculate the probability of a power outage in area m based on the distance between the location indicated in the power outage location information and area m. Specifically, the power outage estimation unit 12 calculates a higher probability of a power outage in area m the closer the distance between the location indicated in the power outage location information and area m is. Alternatively, the power outage estimation unit 12 may calculate the probability of a power outage in area m in such a way that it decreases in proportion to the distance from the location indicated in the power outage location information to area m.

[0036] The power outage estimation unit 12 calculates the power outage for each area m using, for example, the following formula: j The probability of a power outage in (where j is a number that identifies each area) may also be calculated.

number

number

[0037] Thus, given that areas surrounding a wireless communication base station experiencing a power outage are highly likely to also experience power outages, the probability of a power outage in each area can be calculated based on the positional relationship between the location indicated in the power outage location information and each area. Therefore, by using the power outage probability as area-specific power outage information, it is possible to obtain area-specific power outage information suitable for calculating the number of people to evacuate.

[0038] Figure 6 shows another example of calculating the probability of a power outage in area m. In the example shown in Figure 6, the power outage estimation unit 12 calculates the probability of a power outage in each area based on the wiring class. The wiring class is information indicating the system of the power supply route and is associated with each wireless communication base station and each area as attribute information.

[0039] As shown in Figure 6, the wiring class information DC includes information that associates each area with one of the wiring classes dc1, dc2, dc3, or dc4. Areas m with the same wiring class are receiving power through the same substation and power lines. If a power outage occurs in one area, it is highly likely that other areas with the same wiring class are also experiencing power outages.

[0040] Furthermore, as shown in Figure 6, the wireless communication base station sta is associated with wiring class dc1, and the wireless communication base station stb is associated with wiring class dc3. The power outage estimation unit 12 sets the probability of a power outage to 100% in areas having the same wiring class as a wireless communication base station where a power outage has been indicated by power outage information, and sets the probability of a power outage to 0% in areas having the same wiring class as a wireless communication base station where no power outage has been indicated.

[0041] Specifically, the power outage estimation unit 12 estimates the power outage area information PB based on the power outage information and wiring class. Since the wireless communication base station sta experiencing the power outage is associated with wiring class dc1, the power outage estimation unit 12 sets the power outage probability of area pb1, which consists of areas associated with wiring class dc1, to 100%.

[0042] Similarly, since the wireless communication base station STB experiencing a power outage is associated with wiring class DC3, the power outage estimation unit 12 sets the probability of a power outage in area region PB3, which consists of areas associated with wiring class DC3, to 100%.

[0043] Furthermore, the power outage estimation unit 12 sets the power outage probability of area pb2, which consists of areas associated with the same wiring class as wireless communication base stations where power outages have been indicated, or areas with a different wiring class than wireless communication base stations where power outages have occurred, to 0%.

[0044] In this way, by estimating the probability of a power outage in each area based on whether or not each area has the same wiring class as the wireless communication base station experiencing the power outage, it becomes possible to easily obtain area-specific power outage information.

[0045] Referring again to Figure 2, the estimation device 10 may include a disaster information acquisition unit 13. The disaster information acquisition unit 13 acquires disaster information from a given information source, which includes at least information on the disaster area indicating the geographical extent of the disaster. The disaster information may also include disaster scale information indicating the scale of the disaster. When disaster information is acquired by the disaster information acquisition unit 13, the power outage estimation unit 12 limits at least one of the wireless communication base stations and areas corresponding to the power outage information used to estimate area power outage information, based on the disaster area indicated in the disaster information. That is, the power outage estimation unit 12 may estimate area power outage information only for area m included in the disaster area. Alternatively, the power outage estimation unit 12 may use only information on wireless communication base stations included in the disaster area to estimate area power outage information.

[0046] In this way, based on the disaster area information shown in the disaster information, at least one of the wireless communication base stations and the area that are subject to estimation of area power outage information can be limited, thereby reducing the processing load related to calculating area power outage information.

[0047] Furthermore, the power outage estimation unit 12 may re-estimate the area power outage information if there is a change in the power outage information. In response to the re-estimate of the area power outage information triggered by the change in power outage information, the following may be performed: re-estimate of the evacuation population by the evacuation population estimation unit 16 based on the re-estimated area power outage information, re-estimate of the number of devices used and power consumption by the power consumption estimation unit 17 based on the re-estimated evacuation population, and output of power consumption information by the power consumption information output unit 18 showing the re-estimated power consumption, as will be explained later. In this way, by performing a series of processes for generating power consumption information triggered by a change in power outage information, it becomes possible to obtain the latest power consumption information.

[0048] The location information acquisition unit 14 acquires location information of mobile radio communication terminals in each area from radio communication base stations that relay and manage the radio communications of mobile radio communication terminals and a given management device that manages location information.

[0049] The area population estimation unit 15 estimates the area population, which is the population of each area, based on the presence information, which indicates the number of mobile radio communication terminals located in each area. For example, the area population estimation unit 15 may estimate the population of an area by using the number of mobile radio communication terminals for each area shown in the presence information, or by multiplying the number of mobile radio communication terminals for each area shown in the presence information by a given coefficient to estimate the population of an area.

[0050] The evacuation population estimation unit 16 estimates the evacuation population, which is the population that will evacuate to each evacuation center, based on the correspondence between the evacuation center and each area, as well as the area population and area power outage information for each area.

[0051] Specifically, the evacuation population estimation unit 16 calculates the area evacuation population, which represents the population that is expected to evacuate to shelters in each area, by multiplying the probability of power outages in each area by the area population. Then, the evacuation population estimation unit 16 estimates the evacuation population for each shelter by summing up the area evacuation populations of the areas that have a corresponding relationship with each shelter.

[0052] Figure 7 schematically shows the correspondence between area group M and the geographical range of people who will evacuate to each shelter. The evacuation population estimation unit 16 obtains evacuation range information EA, which indicates the geographical range of people who will evacuate to each shelter, from, for example, the shelter information storage unit 20. The evacuation range information EA may constitute a part of the shelter information.

[0053] In the example shown in Figure 7, assuming that three evacuation shelters 1, 2, and 3 are located within the geographical area corresponding to area group M, the evacuation area information EA includes information on the evacuation target areas ea1, ea2, and ea3, respectively, corresponding to evacuation shelters 1, 2, and 3. The evacuation population estimation unit 16 then acquires information identifying the area m belonging to each of the evacuation target areas ea1, ea2, and ea3 as information on the area m to be evacuated to each evacuation shelter.

[0054] The evacuation population estimation unit 16 estimates the evacuation population of shelter k using the following formula.

Number

Number

[0055] Area j ’s recent demographic data is the population of area m j .

[0056] Also, as shown in the above formula, the evacuation population estimation unit 16 may calculate the area evacuation population by multiplying the product of the blackout probability for each area and the area population by the weight coefficient β. The weight coefficient β is a weight for estimating the evacuation population and may also be a coefficient for correcting the difference between the estimated evacuation population and the actual evacuation population, and an arbitrary value is preset.

[0057] Furthermore, the weight coefficient β may be generated by inputting area features that include at least the number of people present in each area, which represents the number of mobile radio communication terminals present in each area, into the weight coefficient generation model. The weight coefficient generation model is a machine learning model that takes area features that include at least the number of people present in each area, which represents the number of mobile radio communication terminals present in each area, as input and outputs weight coefficients. The weight coefficient generation model can be constructed by machine learning using training data consisting of theoretical weight coefficients calculated based on actual values ​​from past disaster occurrences and area features that include at least the number of people present.

[0058] The theoretical weight coefficient may be calculated by dividing the actual area evacuation population (the population that actually evacuated in each area during past disasters) by the product of the power outage probability and the area population. Area features are not limited to the number of people present, which indicates the number of mobile radio communication terminals present in the area, but may also include, for example, the average population during normal times, the number of people present per time period, the presence or absence of important facilities or important bases in the area, and geographical information such as elevation. The machine learning method may be, for example, a decision tree analysis method such as LightGBM, but is not limited to that method, and may also be other well-known analysis methods.

[0059] In this way, the area evacuation population can be calculated by multiplying the product of the power outage probability and the area population by the weight coefficients generated by a weight coefficient generation model that reflects actual data such as area features and area evacuation population. Therefore, a highly accurate area evacuation population can be obtained.

[0060] The power consumption estimation unit 17 estimates the number of devices using electricity in the evacuation shelter, which is the number of devices using electricity, for each type of device based on the evacuation population.

[0061] Specifically, the power consumption estimation unit 17 calculates the number of devices in use by multiplying the ratio of the evacuee population to the capacity of each evacuation center by the number of power-using devices installed in that evacuation center. The power consumption estimation unit 17 obtains evacuation center information from the evacuation center information storage unit 20 in order to calculate the number of devices in use. Figure 8 is a diagram showing an example of evacuation center information stored in the evacuation center information storage unit 20. The evacuation center information includes information indicating the capacity of each evacuation center, the number of heating devices, and the presence or absence of a disaster prevention radio terminal. Heating devices and disaster prevention radio terminals constitute an example of power-using devices. For example, the capacity of evacuation center 1 is "100", the number of heating devices is "4", and the presence or absence of a disaster prevention radio terminal is "Yes".

[0062] Figure 9 shows an example of the estimated number of evacuees and the number of devices used at each evacuation center. Since the number of evacuees at evacuation center 1 is 80, the power consumption estimation unit 17 multiplies the number of heating devices at evacuation center 1, "4", by the ratio of the number of evacuees, "80", to the capacity of evacuation center 1, "100" (80 / 100), to obtain a product of "3.2", and then rounds down the fractional part to obtain the estimated number of devices used, "3".

[0063] Furthermore, since the disaster prevention radio terminal is a power-consuming device that is used when there is one or more evacuees, the power consumption estimation unit 17 obtains the estimated number of disaster prevention radio terminals in use at evacuation center 1 as "Yes (1)".

[0064] Similarly, with respect to shelter 2, the power consumption estimation unit 17 obtains a product of "2.25" by multiplying the number of heating appliances "3" by the ratio of the evacuation population "60" to the capacity "80" (60 / 80), and then rounding down the fractional part to obtain the estimated number of devices in use "2". Also, since the evacuation population of shelter 2 is one or more, the power consumption estimation unit 17 obtains the estimated number of devices in use of disaster prevention radio terminals in shelter 2 "Yes (1)".

[0065] Furthermore, with respect to shelter 3, the power consumption estimation unit 17 obtains an estimated number of devices in use of "0" by multiplying the number of heating appliances "3" by the ratio of the number of evacuees "0" to the capacity "50" (0 / 50). Also, since the number of evacuees in shelter 3 is 0, the power consumption estimation unit 17 obtains an estimated number of devices in use of the disaster prevention radio terminal in shelter 3 of "none (0)".

[0066] Furthermore, the power consumption estimation unit 17 may set the estimated number of power-using devices of a predetermined type to zero if the temperature in the evacuation center is above a predetermined threshold for that type of power-using device. Since heating devices are not used when the temperature is high, if the temperature threshold is set to, for example, 20 degrees, the power consumption estimation unit 17 will set the number of heating devices to zero, regardless of the number of evacuees, if the temperature in the evacuation center is 20 degrees or higher.

[0067] The power consumption estimation unit 17 estimates the power consumption in the evacuation center by multiplying the number of devices in use by the power consumption of a given power-using device. Specifically, in order to estimate the power consumption of heating appliances in evacuation center 1, the power consumption estimation unit 17 calculates the power consumption of heating appliances in evacuation center 1 by multiplying the power consumption of the heating appliances by the estimated number of heating appliances in use, "3".

[0068] Furthermore, the power consumption estimation unit 17 calculates the power consumption of the disaster prevention radio terminal in evacuation shelter 1 by multiplying the power consumption of the disaster prevention radio terminal by the estimated number of devices using the disaster prevention radio terminal, which is "1". Then, the power consumption estimation unit 17 calculates the total power consumption in evacuation shelter 1 by summing up the power consumption of all power-using devices in evacuation shelter 1.

[0069] Referring again to Figure 2, the output unit 18 outputs power consumption information indicating the power consumption of each evacuation center. The manner in which the power consumption information is output is not limited, and the output unit 18 may display the power consumption information indicating the power consumption of each evacuation center estimated by the power consumption estimation unit 17 on a predetermined display device, store it in a predetermined storage means, or transmit it to a predetermined device.

[0070] Furthermore, if the output unit 18 can obtain information on the remaining power of the batteries installed in each evacuation center, it may output remaining power information indicating the remaining power of the batteries in each evacuation center based on the remaining power of the batteries in each evacuation center and the power consumption in each evacuation center estimated by the power consumption estimation unit 17.

[0071] Figure 10 is an example of power consumption information, showing the change in remaining power over time in a battery at a certain evacuation center. As shown in Figure 10, the output unit 18 may output a graph showing the change in remaining power in the evacuation center's battery. In the example shown in Figure 10, it is shown that the remaining power decreases linearly as time passes after the time td when the disaster occurs. In this way, by referring to the power consumption information, the decreasing trend of the remaining power in the evacuation center's battery can be recognized, making it possible to supply power to the battery in a timely manner.

[0072] Next, with reference to Figure 11, the processing details of the estimation method in the estimation device 10 will be explained.

[0073] In step S1, the power outage information acquisition unit 11 acquires power outage information indicating whether or not a power outage has occurred at the wireless communication base station.

[0074] In step S2, the power outage estimation unit 12 estimates area power outage information indicating whether or not a power outage has occurred in each area m, based on the power outage information.

[0075] In step S3, the area information acquisition unit 14 acquires area information of mobile radio communication terminals in each area from radio communication base stations that relay and manage the radio communications of mobile radio communication terminals and a given management device that manages the area information. Then, the area population estimation unit 15 estimates the area population of each area based on the area information, which indicates the number of mobile radio communication terminals located in each area. Note that the processing in step S2 and the processing in step S3 may be performed in any order.

[0076] In step S4, the evacuation population estimation unit 16 estimates the evacuation population, which is the population that will evacuate to each evacuation center, based on the correspondence between the evacuation center and each area, as well as the area population and area power outage information for each area.

[0077] In step S5, the power consumption estimation unit 17 estimates the number of devices using electricity in the evacuation shelter, which is the number of devices using electricity, for each type of device based on the evacuation population.

[0078] In step S6, the power consumption estimation unit 17 estimates the power consumption in the evacuation center based on the number of devices using each type of power-using equipment and the power consumption of each power-using equipment. Specifically, the power consumption estimation unit 17 estimates the power consumption in the evacuation center by multiplying the number of devices using each type of power-using equipment by the power consumption of a given power-using equipment.

[0079] In step S7, the output unit 18 outputs power consumption information indicating the power consumption of each evacuation center.

[0080] Next, with reference to Figure 12, an estimation program for causing the computer to function as the estimation device 10 of this embodiment will be described.

[0081] Figure 12 shows the configuration of the estimation program. The estimation program P1 is composed of a main module m10 that comprehensively controls the estimation process in the estimation device 10, a power outage information acquisition module m11, a power outage estimation module m12, a disaster information acquisition module m13, a resident information acquisition module m14, an area population estimation module m15, an evacuation population estimation module m16, a power consumption estimation module m17, and an output module m18. Each module m11 to m18 realizes the respective functions for the power outage information acquisition unit 11, the power outage estimation unit 12, the disaster information acquisition unit 13, the resident information acquisition unit 14, the area population estimation unit 15, the evacuation population estimation unit 16, the power consumption estimation unit 17, and the output unit 18.

[0082] The estimated program P1 may be transmitted via a transmission medium such as a communication line, or it may be stored in a recording medium M1, as shown in Figure 12.

[0083] According to the estimation device 10, estimation method, and estimation program P1 of this embodiment described above, the presence or absence of a power outage in each area is recognized based on power outage information at the wireless communication base station. Then, based on the area occupancy information for each area, the area population of the area where the power outage is occurring can be estimated, and based on the correspondence between the area and the evacuation shelter, the evacuation population of each evacuation shelter can be estimated. Since the number of devices used in an evacuation shelter depends on the evacuation population, the power consumption trend in each evacuation shelter can be grasped by estimating the number of devices using power-consuming equipment based on the estimated evacuation population. Therefore, timely power supply to the storage batteries of the evacuation shelters becomes possible.

[0084] In addition, in an estimation device of a different form, the power outage estimation unit may acquire location information of a wireless communication base station where a power outage is occurring as power outage location information indicating the location of the power outage, and estimate area power outage information by calculating the power outage probability, which is the probability that a power outage is occurring in each area, based on the positional relationship between the location indicated in the power outage location information and each area.

[0085] According to the above configuration, given that there is a high probability of power outages occurring in areas surrounding the location of a wireless communication base station experiencing a power outage, the probability of a power outage in each area can be calculated based on the positional relationship between the location indicated in the power outage location information and each area. Therefore, by using the power outage probability as area power outage information, area power outage information suitable for calculating the number of people to evacuate can be obtained.

[0086] Furthermore, in an estimation device of a different form, each wireless communication base station and each area is associated with a wiring class indicating the power supply path, and the power outage estimation unit estimates area power outage information by calculating the power outage probability, which is the probability that a power outage has occurred in each area. The power outage probability in areas having the same wiring class as a wireless communication base station that is indicated to have a power outage based on the power outage information may be set to 100%, and the power outage probability in areas having the same wiring class as a wireless communication base station that is indicated not to have a power outage may be set to 0%.

[0087] According to the above configuration, the probability of a power outage in each area can be estimated based on whether or not each area has the same wiring class as the wireless communication base station experiencing the power outage, making it easy to obtain area-specific power outage information.

[0088] In addition, in estimation devices of a different form, the power outage estimation unit may limit at least one of the wireless communication base stations and areas related to the estimation of area power outage information based on the disaster area indicated in the disaster information, which includes at least information on the disaster area indicating the geographical extent where the disaster is occurring.

[0089] According to the above configuration, at least one of the wireless communication base stations and areas that are subject to estimation of area power outage information is limited based on the disaster area information shown in the disaster information, thereby reducing the processing load related to calculating area power outage information.

[0090] In addition, in a different type of estimation device, the evacuation population estimation unit may calculate the area evacuation population, which represents the population that is expected to evacuate to shelters in each area, by multiplying the probability of power outages in each area by the area population, and then estimate the evacuation population of each shelter by summing the area evacuation populations of areas that have a corresponding relationship with each shelter.

[0091] According to the above method, the number of evacuees for each area is calculated based on the probability of power outages and the population of each area. The number of evacuees for a particular evacuation center is then calculated by summing the evacuees of the areas that correspond to that evacuation center. This allows for the acquisition of highly accurate evacuation figures.

[0092] Furthermore, in an estimation device of a different form, the evacuation population estimation unit calculates the area evacuation population by multiplying the product of the area population by the area probability of power outages for each area by a weight coefficient. The weight coefficient is generated by inputting area features that include at least the number of people present, which indicates the number of mobile radio communication terminals present in each area, into a weight coefficient generation model. The weight coefficient generation model takes area features that include at least the number of people present, which indicates the number of mobile radio communication terminals present in each area, as input and outputs weight coefficients. It may also be constructed by machine learning using training data consisting of theoretical weight coefficient values, which are weight coefficients calculated based on actual area evacuation population (the population that evacuated in each area during past disasters), power outage probability, and area population, and area features that include at least the number of people present.

[0093] According to the above configuration, the area evacuation population is calculated by multiplying the product of the power outage probability and the area population by a weight coefficient generation model that reflects actual data such as area features and area evacuation population. Therefore, a highly accurate area evacuation population can be obtained.

[0094] In addition, in a different form of estimation device, the power consumption estimation unit may calculate the number of devices in use by multiplying the ratio of the evacuee population to the capacity of each evacuation center by the number of power-using devices installed in that evacuation center.

[0095] According to the above configuration, given that the number of electrical appliances used, such as heating appliances, is proportional to the number of people using them, the number of appliances used is calculated by multiplying the ratio of the evacuation population to the capacity of the evacuation center by the number of electrical appliances provided in the evacuation center. This makes it possible to estimate the number of appliances used with high accuracy.

[0096] Furthermore, in an estimation device of a different form, the power consumption estimation unit may set the estimated number of power-using devices of a predetermined type to zero if the temperature of the evacuation center is above a predetermined threshold for a predetermined type of power-using device.

[0097] According to the above configuration, given that power-consuming equipment such as heating appliances is unlikely to be used when the temperature is high, the estimated number of devices in use is set to zero when the temperature is above a given threshold. Therefore, it becomes possible to estimate an appropriate number of devices in use according to the temperature.

[0098] In addition, in an estimation device of a different form, the output unit may output remaining power information indicating the remaining power of each battery, based on the remaining power of each battery obtained from the batteries installed in each evacuation center, and the power consumption at each evacuation center estimated by the power consumption estimation unit.

[0099] According to the above configuration, it is possible to recognize the decreasing trend in the remaining power of the batteries in the evacuation center, making it possible to supply power to the batteries in a timely manner.

[0100] In addition, in a different form of estimation device, the power outage estimation unit may re-estimate area power outage information when there is a change in power outage information, the evacuation population estimation unit may re-estimate the evacuation population based on the re-estimated area power outage information, the power consumption estimation unit may re-estimate the number of devices used and power consumption based on the re-estimated evacuation population, and the output unit may output power consumption information showing the re-estimated power consumption.

[0101] According to the above configuration, a series of processes for generating power consumption information are performed in response to changes in power outage information. Therefore, it becomes possible to obtain the latest power consumption information.

[0102] Although this embodiment has been described in detail above, it will be clear to those skilled in the art that this embodiment is not limited to the embodiments described herein. This embodiment can be implemented as a modified and altered form without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention as defined by the claims. Therefore, the description herein is for illustrative purposes only and is not intended to be restrictive in any way to this embodiment.

[0103] Each aspect / embodiment described herein may be applied to systems utilizing LTE (Long Term Evolution), LTE-A (LTE-Advanced), SUPER 3G, IMT-Advanced, 4G, 5G, FRA (Future Radio Access), W-CDMA®, GSM®, CDMA2000, UMB (Ultra Mobile Broadband), IEEE 802.11 (Wi-Fi), IEEE 802.16 (WiMAX), IEEE 802.20, UWB (Ultra-WideBand), Bluetooth®, and other appropriate systems, and / or next-generation systems extended based thereon.

[0104] The processing procedures, sequences, flowcharts, etc., of each aspect / embodiment described herein may be reordered, provided they are consistent with each other. For example, the methods described herein present the elements of various steps in an exemplary order and are not limited to that specific order.

[0105] Input and output information may be stored in a specific location (e.g., memory) or managed in a management table. Input and output information may be overwritten, updated, or appended to. Output information may be deleted. Input information may be sent to other devices.

[0106] The determination may be made by a value represented by 1 bit (0 or 1), by a boolean value (true or false), or by a numerical comparison (for example, a comparison with a predetermined value).

[0107] Each aspect / embodiment described herein may be used individually, in combination, or switched between as needed during implementation. Furthermore, notification of predetermined information (e.g., notification that "X is") is not limited to explicit notification, but may also be implicit (e.g., by not providing such notification).

[0108] Although the present disclosure has been described in detail above, it will be clear to those skilled in the art that the present disclosure is not limited to the embodiments described herein. The present disclosure can be implemented in modified and altered forms without departing from the intent and scope of the present disclosure as defined by the claims. Therefore, the descriptions in the present disclosure are illustrative and not intended to be restrictive in any way.

[0109] Software should be broadly interpreted to mean instructions, instruction sets, code, code segments, program code, programs, subprograms, software modules, applications, software applications, software packages, routines, subroutines, objects, executable files, execution threads, procedures, functions, and so on, whether they are called software, firmware, middleware, microcode, hardware description languages, or by any other name.

[0110] Furthermore, software, instructions, etc., may be transmitted and received via a transmission medium. For example, if software is transmitted from a website, server, or other remote source using wired technologies such as coaxial cable, fiber optic cable, twisted pair, and digital subscriber lines (DSL) and / or wireless technologies such as infrared, radio, and microwave, these wired and / or wireless technologies are included in the definition of a transmission medium.

[0111] The information, signals, etc. described in this disclosure may be represented using any of the various different techniques. For example, the data, instructions, commands, information, signals, bits, symbols, chips, etc. that may be referred to throughout the above description may be represented by voltage, current, electromagnetic waves, magnetic fields or magnetic particles, optical fields or photons, or any combination thereof.

[0112] In addition, terms described in this disclosure and / or terms necessary for understanding this specification may be replaced with terms having the same or similar meaning.

[0113] The terms “system” and “network” as used herein are interchangeable.

[0114] Furthermore, the information, parameters, etc., described herein may be expressed as absolute values, relative values ​​from a given value, or as corresponding other information.

[0115] As used in this disclosure, the terms “determining” and “determining” may encompass a wide variety of actions. “Determining” may include, for example, judging, calculating, computing, processing, deriving, investigating, looking up, searching, inquiry (e.g., searching in a table, database, or other data structure), and ascertaining. “Determining” may also include, for example, receiving (e.g., receiving information), transmitting (e.g., sending information), input, output, and accessing (e.g., accessing data in memory). Furthermore, "judgment" and "decision" can include considering something as having been "judged" or "decided" after resolving, selecting, choosing, establishing, comparing, etc. In other words, "judgment" and "decision" can include considering something as having been "judged" or "decided" after some action. Also, "judgment (decision)" can be reinterpreted as "assuming," "expecting," or "considering."

[0116] As used in this disclosure, the phrase "based on" does not mean "based solely on" unless otherwise specified. In other words, the phrase "based on" means both "based solely on" and "based on at least."

[0117] Where the designations “first,” “second,” etc., are used herein, no reference to those elements shall generally limit the quantity or order of those elements. These designations may be used herein as a convenient way to distinguish between two or more elements. Thus, references to the first and second elements shall not imply that only two elements may be employed therein, or that the first element must precede the second element in any way.

[0118] To the extent that “include,” “including,” and their variations are used herein or in the claims, these terms are intended to be inclusive, as is the term “comprising.” Furthermore, the term “or” as used herein or in the claims is not intended to be exclusive OR.

[0119] In this specification, unless it is clear from the context or technically that only one device exists, this also includes multiple devices.

[0120] Throughout this disclosure, unless the context clearly indicates a singular number, the terms shall include plural ones. [Explanation of Symbols]

[0121] 1...System, 10...Estimation device, 11...Power outage information acquisition unit, 12...Power outage estimation unit, 13...Disaster information acquisition unit, 14...Location information acquisition unit, 15...Area population estimation unit, 16...Evacuation population estimation unit, 17...Power consumption estimation unit, 18...Output unit, 20...Evacuation shelter information storage unit, M1...Recording medium, m10...Main module, m11...Power outage information acquisition module, m12...Power outage estimation module, m13...Disaster information acquisition module, m14...Location information acquisition module, m15...Area population estimation module, m16...Evacuation population estimation module, m17...Power consumption estimation module, m18...Output module, N...Network, P1...Estimation program, ST...Wireless communication base station group, sta,stb...Wireless communication base station, SV...External information server.

Claims

1. An estimation device for estimating power consumption in evacuation shelters, A power outage estimation unit estimates area power outage information indicating whether or not power outages have occurred in each of the given geographically divided areas, based on power outage information indicating whether or not power outages have occurred at wireless communication base stations. An area population estimation unit estimates the area population, which is the population of each area, based on location information that shows the number of mobile radio communication terminals located in each area. An evacuation population estimation unit estimates the evacuation population, which is the population that will evacuate to each evacuation center, based on the correspondence between the evacuation center and each area, as well as the area population and area power outage information for each area. A power consumption estimation unit estimates the number of devices using electricity in an evacuation center, which is the number of devices using electricity, based on the evacuation population for each type of device, and estimates the power consumption in the evacuation center by multiplying the number of devices using electricity by the power consumption of a given device. An output unit that outputs power consumption information showing the power consumption of each evacuation center, An estimation device equipped with the following features.

2. The power outage estimation unit acquires location information of the wireless communication base station where a power outage is occurring as power outage location information indicating the location of the power outage, and estimates the area power outage information by calculating the power outage probability, which is the probability that a power outage is occurring in each area, based on the positional relationship between the location indicated in the power outage location information and each area. The estimation device according to claim 1.

3. Each wireless communication base station and area is associated with a wiring class that indicates the power supply path system. The power outage estimation unit estimates area power outage information by calculating the power outage probability, which is the probability that a power outage is occurring in each area. It sets the power outage probability to 100% for areas having the same wiring class as the wireless communication base station where a power outage is indicated by the power outage information, and sets the power outage probability to 0% for areas having the same wiring class as the wireless communication base station where no power outage is indicated. The estimation device according to claim 1.

4. The power outage estimation unit limits at least one of the wireless communication base stations and areas related to the estimation of area power outage information based on the disaster area shown in the disaster information, which includes at least information on the disaster area indicating the geographical extent where the disaster is occurring. The estimation device according to claim 2.

5. The evacuation population estimation unit calculates the area evacuation population, which represents the population that is expected to evacuate to shelters in each area, by multiplying the power outage probability for each area by the area population, and estimates the evacuation population for each shelter by summing the area evacuation populations of the areas that have a corresponding relationship with each shelter. The estimation device according to claim 2.

6. The evacuation population estimation unit calculates the area evacuation population by multiplying the product of the area's power outage probability by the area's population and then multiplying that product by a weighting coefficient. The aforementioned weight coefficients are generated by inputting area features, which include at least the number of people present in each area (indicating the number of mobile wireless communication terminals present in each area), into a weight coefficient generation model. The aforementioned weight coefficient generation model is, The input is an area feature quantity that includes at least the number of people present, which indicates the number of mobile wireless communication terminals located in each area, and the output is the weight coefficient. This is constructed by machine learning using training data consisting of the actual area evacuation population (the population that evacuated in each area during past disasters), the theoretical weight coefficient values ​​(weight coefficients calculated based on the power outage probability and the area population), and the area features (which include at least the number of people in the area). The estimation device according to claim 5.

7. The power consumption estimation unit calculates the number of devices in use by multiplying the ratio of the evacuee population to the capacity of each evacuation center by the number of power-using devices installed in that evacuation center. The estimation device according to claim 1.

8. The power consumption estimation unit sets the estimated number of devices using a predetermined type of power-consuming equipment to zero if the temperature of the evacuation center is above a predetermined threshold for a predetermined type of power-consuming equipment. The estimation device according to claim 1.

9. The output unit outputs remaining power information indicating the remaining power of each battery, based on the remaining power of each battery obtained from the batteries installed in each evacuation center, and the power consumption at each evacuation center estimated by the power consumption estimation unit. The estimation device according to claim 1.

10. The power outage estimation unit re-estimates the area power outage information when a change occurs in the power outage information. The evacuation population estimation unit re-estimates the evacuation population based on the re-estimated area power outage information, The power consumption estimation unit re-estimates the number of devices in use and the power consumption based on the re-estimated evacuation population. The output unit outputs the power consumption information indicating the re-estimated power consumption. The estimation device according to claim 1.

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