Method for predicting the remaining lifespan of a hose, and system for predicting the remaining lifespan of a hose.

Abstract

To provide a method for predicting the residual life of a hose with which the residual life of a hose can be easily predicted.SOLUTION: A method for predicting the residual life of a hose includes: a deterioration model creation step of, for a hose of the same type as a hose in use, by using fluid in the hose in use, determining the relationship between the usage time and the physical property value of rubber for an inner tube rubber layer configured by including rubber affected by the physical property of the fluid, and creating a deterioration model of the inner tube rubber layer; a usage time calculation step of, for the hose in use, calculating the usage time of the inner tube rubber layer from the start of usage until the time of execution of prediction; and a residual life prediction step of predicting the residual life of the hose in use based on the usage time calculated in the usage time calculation step and the deterioration model created in the deterioration model creation step.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 9

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to a method for predicting the remaining life of a hose and a system for predicting the remaining life of a hose.

Background Art

[0002] Generally, for construction machinery, factory equipment, etc., a hose having an inner tube rubber layer may be used to transmit pressure using a fluid (such as oil). Even when such a hose is used within the range determined by the specifications of the hose, the rubber layer gradually deteriorates due to long-term use. And in a hose in which the rubber layer has deteriorated and is used beyond its life, problems such as leakage of the fluid existing inside from near the deteriorated position may occur. In order to prevent such problems, it has been proposed to predict the remaining usable period of the hose from the usage time of the hose so that the use of the hose does not exceed its life (see, for example, Patent Document 1).

Prior Art Documents

Patent Documents

[0003]

Patent Document 1

Summary of the Invention

Problems to be Solved by the Invention

[0004] When the inventors variously studied hoses handling fluids, it was found that the physical properties of the fluids affect the life of the hoses.

[0005] In view of such problems, an object of the present invention is to provide a method for predicting the remaining life of a hose and a system for predicting the remaining life of a hose, which can easily predict the remaining life of a hose using a fluid.

Means for Solving the Problems

[0006] A method for predicting the remaining life of a hose according to claim 1, the method for predicting the remaining life of a hose in use, which has at least an inner tube rubber layer in which a fluid comes into contact with the inside and whose physical properties are affected by the physical properties of the fluid over time, a reinforcing layer disposed on the outer circumference of the inner tube rubber layer, and an outer sheath layer disposed on the outer circumference of the reinforcing layer, the method comprising: a deterioration model creation step of first determining the relationship between the usage time of the inner tube rubber layer and the physical properties of the rubber using the fluid for a hose of the same type as the hose in use, and creating a deterioration model of the inner tube rubber layer; a usage time calculation step of first calculating the usage time of the inner tube rubber layer for the hose in use from the start of use until the prediction is made; and a remaining life prediction step of predicting the remaining life of the hose in use based on the usage time calculated in the usage time calculation step and the deterioration model created in the deterioration model creation step.

[0007] The method for predicting the remaining lifespan of a hose described in claim 1 predicts the remaining lifespan of a hose in use, which has at least an inner tube rubber layer composed of rubber that comes into contact with the fluid, and a reinforcing layer positioned on the outer circumference side of the inner tube rubber layer. The rubber in the inner tube rubber layer of a hose in use is affected by the physical properties of the fluid itself in terms of how its physical properties change over time.

[0008] First, in the degradation model creation process, for hoses of the same type as the hose currently in use, the relationship between the usage time and the physical properties of the rubber in the inner tube rubber layer is determined using the fluid used in the hose, and a degradation model of the inner tube rubber layer is created.

[0009] In the usage time calculation process, the usage time of the inner rubber layer of the hose in use is calculated from the start of use to the predicted time.

[0010] In the remaining life prediction process, the remaining life of the hose in use is predicted based on the usage time calculation process, the usage time calculated in the usage time calculation process, and the degradation model created in the degradation model creation process.

[0011] The degradation model created in the degradation model creation process is based on a hose of the same type as the hose currently in use. By using the fluid used in the hose to determine the relationship between the usage time and the physical properties of the rubber inner tube layer, a degradation model for the inner tube rubber layer is created. This allows for accurate prediction of the remaining lifespan of the hose in use, taking into account the physical properties of the fluid.

[0012] The remaining life prediction system for a hose according to claim 2 predicts the remaining life of a hose in use, which has at least an inner tube rubber layer in which a fluid comes into contact with the inside and whose physical properties are affected by the physical properties of the fluid as the physical properties change over time, a reinforcing layer disposed on the outer circumference of the inner tube rubber layer, and an outer sheath layer disposed on the outer circumference of the reinforcing layer, and includes: a deterioration model creation means for determining the relationship between the usage time of the inner tube rubber layer and the physical properties of the rubber using the fluid for a hose of the same type as the hose in use, and creating a deterioration model of the inner tube rubber layer; a usage time calculation means for calculating the usage time of the inner tube rubber layer from the start of use to the time of the prediction for the hose in use; and a remaining life prediction means for predicting the remaining life of the hose in use based on the usage time calculated by the usage time calculation means and the deterioration model created by the deterioration model creation means.

[0013] The remaining life prediction system for a hose described in claim 2 predicts the remaining life of a hose in use, comprising at least an inner tube rubber layer composed of rubber that comes into contact with the fluid, and a reinforcing layer positioned on the outer circumference of the inner tube rubber layer. The rubber in the inner tube rubber layer of a hose in use is affected by the physical properties of the fluid itself in terms of how its physical properties change over time.

[0014] The degradation model creation method involves using a hose of the same type as the hose currently in use, determining the relationship between the usage time and the physical properties of the rubber in the inner tube rubber layer using the fluid used in the hose, and then creating a degradation model for the inner tube rubber layer.

[0015] In the usage time calculation means, for the hose in use, the usage time of the inner tube rubber layer from the start of use to the prediction time is calculated.

[0016] In the remaining life prediction means, based on the usage time calculated by the usage time calculation means and the deterioration model created by the deterioration model creation means, the remaining life of the hose in use is predicted.

Advantages of the Invention

[0017] As described above, according to the method for predicting the remaining life of the hose of the present invention, there is an excellent effect that the remaining life of the hose using a fluid can be easily predicted.

[0018] Also, according to the system for predicting the remaining life of the hose of the present invention, there is an excellent effect that the remaining life of the hose using a fluid can be easily predicted.

Brief Description of the Drawings

[0019] [Figure 1] FIG. 1 is an overall perspective view showing an example of a hose to be predicted by the method for predicting the remaining life of a hose according to Reference Example 1 and the system for predicting the remaining life of a hose according to Reference Example 1, in a state where the hose is attached to a machine or the like. [Figure 2] (A) and (B) are perspective views of a partially disassembled example showing the internal configuration of the hose shown in FIG. 1. [Figure 3] FIG. 2 is a flowchart showing the method for predicting the remaining life of a hose according to Reference Example 1. [Figure 4] FIG. 3 is a conceptual diagram showing an example of a deterioration model in Reference Example 1. [Figure 5] FIG. 4 is a conceptual diagram showing an example of the relationship between the breaking elongation of rubber and the usage time. [Figure 6] FIG. 5 is a diagram for explaining the system for predicting the remaining life of a hose according to Reference Example 1. [Figure 7] FIG. , is a functional block diagram showing the control configuration of the system in Reference Example 1. [Figure 8] FIG. 4 is a conceptual diagram showing an example of the relationship between the breaking elongation of rubber and the usage time. [Figure 9] It is a conceptual diagram showing an example of the relationship between the elongation at break of rubber and the service time. [Figure 10] (A) and (B) are conceptual diagrams showing an example of the relationship between the elongation at break of the rubber of a hose and the service time. [Figure 11] (A) and (B) are side views of a hose showing an example of the bent state. [Figure 12] It is a conceptual diagram showing an example of the relationship between the elongation at break of rubber and the service time. [Figure 13] (A) and (B) are side views of a hose showing an example of the bent state. [Figure 14] It is a conceptual diagram showing an example of the relationship between the elongation at break of rubber and the service time. [Figure 15] (A) and (B) are side views of a hose showing an example of the bent state. [Figure 16] It is a conceptual diagram showing an example of the relationship between the elongation at break of rubber and the service time.

Mode for Carrying Out the Invention

[0020] [Reference Example 1] First, using FIGS. 1 to 8, a method for predicting the remaining life of a hose according to Reference Example 1 and a hose remaining life prediction system 100 will be described. As will be described later, the method for predicting the remaining life of a hose according to this reference example and the hose remaining life prediction system 100 are for predicting the remaining life of a hose 1 in use, which includes an inner tube rubber layer 11 that is affected by the physical properties of the fluid (itself) used with respect to the change over time of its physical property values.

[0021] [Method for Predicting the Remaining Life of a Hose According to Reference Example 1]<[[ID=3)] First, referring to FIG. 1, a hose 1 to which the method for predicting the remaining life of a hose according to this reference example and the hose remaining life prediction system 100 (see FIG. 7) according to this reference example can be applied will be described.

[0022] As shown in Figure 1, the hose 1 is attached to, for example, machinery 3 (for example, construction machinery as shown in the example, or factory equipment, etc.) and used to transmit pressure using, for example, a high-pressure fluid (oil, etc.).

[0023] As an example, as shown in Figure 11, fittings 2 with connectors for connecting to machinery 3 may be attached to both ends of the hose 1 by inserting them inside and outside the hose 1 and crimping them. The hose 1 can then be attached to the machinery 3 via these fittings 2.

[0024] As shown in Figure 2(A) or Figure 2(B), the hose 1 has at least an inner tube rubber layer 11, a reinforcing layer 12 positioned on the outer circumference of the inner tube rubber layer 11, and an outer sheath layer 13 positioned on the outer circumference of the reinforcing layer 12.

[0025] The inner tube rubber layer 11 is the innermost rubber layer and has heat resistance and other resistances to the fluid flowing inside it.

[0026] Furthermore, the reinforcing layer 12 is provided in one or more layers (one layer in the example of Figure 2(A), and four layers in the example of Figure 2(B)) and serves to ensure the pressure resistance of the hose 1. The reinforcing layer 12 is formed by wrapping reinforcing material such as fibers or metal wires around the outer surface of the inner tube rubber layer 11 or further outward in a spiral or braided manner (braided manner in the example of Figure 2(A), and spiral manner in the example of Figure 2(B)).

[0027] The outer sheath layer 13 forms the outermost layer of the hose 1 and is made of a material that has abrasion resistance, weather resistance, etc., and can protect the hose 1 from the external environment. The material of the outer sheath layer 13 is not particularly limited, but for example, it can be made of rubber.

[0028] Furthermore, as shown in Figure 2(B), one or more intermediate rubber layers 14 (three layers in the example of Figure 2(B)) may be placed between the inner tube rubber layer 11 and the outer skin layer 13.

[0029] Next, we will explain the method for predicting the remaining lifespan of the hose in this example, and the process by which we arrived at the hose remaining lifespan prediction system in this example.

[0030] In the hose 1 shown in Figure 1, the inner rubber layer 11 gradually deteriorates even when used within the range specified in the specifications of the hose 1. The inventors diligently investigated the factors causing the deterioration of the inner rubber layer 11 and concluded that the inner rubber layer 11 of the hose 1 deteriorates due to the influence of additives contained in the fluid used. Therefore, the inventors considered that it would be possible to predict the remaining lifespan of the hose 1 by using the same type (identical) of fluid containing additives that comes into contact with the inner rubber layer 11 of the hose 1 during use. This reference example was made based on this idea. Note that the degree of change over time in the inner rubber layer 11 may vary depending on the influence of the additives.

[0031] The fluid used in machine 3, etc., in this reference example is, for example, oil used in hydraulic equipment, but other fluids may also be used. An example of an additive is an antioxidant, but other additives may also be used. Examples of antioxidants include chain stoppers, peroxide decomposers, and metal deactivators.

[0032] (Method for predicting the remaining lifespan of a hose) First, the method for predicting the remaining lifespan of the hose in this example will be explained with reference to Figures 3-5. The method for predicting the remaining lifespan of a hose in use, as described in this reference example, predicts the remaining lifespan of a hose 1 that is in use, which has at least an inner rubber layer 11, a reinforcing layer 12 positioned on the outer circumference of the inner rubber layer 11, and an outer sheath layer 13 positioned on the outer circumference of the reinforcing layer 12.

[0033] Here, "hose 1 in use" can be arbitrarily determined according to the operating mode of the machinery, etc., but in this reference example, it refers to the hose that is attached to and in use on machinery 3, etc.

[0034] As shown in Figure 3, in the method for predicting the remaining lifespan of a hose according to this reference example, the relationship between the usage time of the inner rubber layer and the physical properties of the rubber constituting the inner rubber layer is determined in advance for a hose of the same type as the hose 1 currently in use (not shown), and a deterioration model of the inner rubber layer is created (deterioration model creation step). The usage time of the inner rubber layer 11 of the hose 1 currently in use is calculated up to the prediction date (usage time calculation step). The remaining lifespan of the hose 1 currently in use is predicted based on a comparison between the usage time calculated in the usage time calculation step and the deterioration model created in the deterioration model creation step (remaining lifespan prediction step).

[0035] (Process for creating a degraded model) In the degradation model creation process, a hose of the same type as the hose currently in use (in other words, a hose attached to machinery, etc.) 1 (not shown; in other words, a hose for degradation model creation) is prepared in advance. For this hose, the relationship between the usage time of the inner tube rubber and the physical properties of the rubber constituting the inner tube rubber layer is determined, and a degradation model of the inner tube rubber layer is created.

[0036] Here, a hose of the same type as hose 1 currently in use (hereinafter also simply referred to as "hose of the same type") refers to a hose in which the rubber constituting the inner tube rubber layer is of the same type as hose 1 currently in use. Note that "same type of rubber" means that the rubber composition is identical.

[0037] The physical properties of the rubber constituting the inner tube rubber layer used in the degradation model are not particularly limited, but are preferably, for example, elongation at break, strength at break, and hardness. This is because these are indicators that are commonly used as physical properties of rubber and can be measured accurately. However, the physical properties of the rubber used in the degradation model are not limited to these indicators, and multiple indicators may be used. In this reference example, an example using elongation at break will be explained.

[0038] Figure 4 is a conceptual diagram illustrating an example of a degradation model in this reference example. Figure 4 shows the relationship between the usage time (h) of the same type of hose and the elongation at break (%) of the rubber constituting the inner tube rubber layer. In this reference example, the degradation model is a graph showing the relationship between usage time and the physical properties of the rubber (in this example, the elongation at break of the rubber), as shown in Figure 4. Hereafter, this graph will be referred to as the degradation curve.

[0039] A degradation model can be created, for example, by continuously circulating a fluid with additives added (the same type of fluid used in hose 1 currently in use) through the same type of hose, measuring the elongation at break of the rubber constituting the inner tube rubber layer over multiple usage periods, and then creating a graph showing the change in the value of the rubber's elongation at break based on the obtained results.

[0040] Furthermore, the elongation at break of rubber can be measured, for example, by a tensile test based on JIS K6251. When using the rubber's strength at break as a physical property, the measurement can be performed according to JIS K6251, for example, while when using rubber hardness, the measurement can be performed according to JIS K6253, for example.

[0041] Furthermore, when using multiple indicators from among elongation at break, strength at break, and hardness as physical properties of rubber, a degradation model should be created for each of these physical properties.

[0042] (Usage time calculation process) In the usage time calculation process, the usage time of the inner rubber layer 11 of the hose 1 currently in use, from the start of use to the predicted time, is calculated.

[0043] The usage time calculation process involves, for example, determining the cumulative time of the inner rubber layer 11 of a hose 1 in use, from the start of use after the machine 3 is attached until the predicted time.

[0044] (Remaining life prediction process) In the remaining life prediction process, the remaining life of hose 1 in use is predicted based on a comparison between the usage time calculated in the usage time calculation process and the degradation model created in the degradation model creation process.

[0045] More specifically, as shown in Figure 5, for example, this can be done by setting a threshold value for the physical properties of the rubber constituting the inner tube rubber layer 11 as the usage limit for the inner tube rubber layer 11, and predicting the remaining life as the time elapsed from the time when usage time has elapsed (point A) to the time when the physical properties reach the threshold value (point B) in the degradation model. According to the method described above, the remaining lifespan of a hose can be predicted more simply and accurately.

[0046] Here, the method for setting the threshold values ​​for the physical properties of rubber is not particularly limited, but for example, the physical properties of a faulty hose of the same type as the hose currently in use can be measured and the threshold values ​​can be set based on those measurements.

[0047] Furthermore, when setting threshold values ​​for the physical properties of the rubber, it is preferable to set them at values ​​before the actual wear limit of the inner tube rubber layer 11 is reached, so that the hose 1 can be replaced before malfunctions such as fluid leakage or hose rupture occur.

[0048] In the remaining life prediction process, for example, as shown in Figure 5, the usage time can be plotted on a degradation model to estimate the elongation at break of the rubber constituting the inner rubber layer 11 of hose 1 at the point in time elapsed (A). Then, the time from the point in time elapsed (A) to the point in time elapsed (B) when the physical property value reaches a threshold can be predicted as the remaining life of hose 1. Note that, in order to predict the remaining life, it is not necessarily required to estimate the value of the elongation at break of the rubber at the point in time elapsed (A); it is sufficient to know the time from the point in time elapsed (A) to the point in time elapsed (B).

[0049] According to the hose remaining life prediction method in this reference example, in a hose 1 in use equipped with an inner rubber layer 11 that is affected by additives contained in the fluid, there is no need to monitor pressure, etc., and the remaining life of the hose can be easily predicted by a machine, etc. 3 simply by obtaining the usage time (cumulative usage time).

[0050] Next, we will describe the hose remaining life prediction system 100 related to this reference example. (System Configuration) Figure 6 is a diagram showing the configuration of the hose remaining life prediction system 100 according to this reference example. In the description of the remaining life prediction system 100 according to this reference example, "user" refers to a person who operates a terminal to check the remaining life of the hose 1, and is, for example, the user of the machine etc. 3 (e.g., construction machinery or factory equipment, etc.) to which the hose 1 is attached, the seller of the machine etc. 3, the seller of the hose 1, etc.

[0051] The remaining life prediction system 100 for hose 1 consists of a machine 3 (construction machinery in the illustrated example) to which hose 1 is attached, a server 40, and one or more terminals 50. The server 40 is connected to the machine 3 and the terminals 50 via a network 60 so as to be able to communicate with each of them. Machine 3 transmits data such as usage time to server 40. Examples of the network 60 connecting machine 3 and server 40 include wireless and satellite links. Server 40 is a server that predicts the remaining lifespan of hose 1 based on data received from machine 3 and data stored in a database, and transmits this prediction to terminal 50. As an example of terminal 50, various devices such as PCs, PDAs, and mobile phones can be used. Furthermore, server 40 and terminal 50 can be assigned to different users, or they can be integrated into a single system. The interface between server 40 and terminal 50 can be established, for example, by server 40 running a web server and terminal 50 equipped with a web browser, using HTTP or HTTPS communication.

[0052] (machines, etc.) Machine 3 is configured to wirelessly transmit data on the usage time of the inner rubber layer 11 of the hose 1 in use, up to the predicted time, to the server 40. As shown in Figures 6 and 7, the machine 3 includes a usage time measuring means (clock, etc.) 31, which consists of a recorder or the like for measuring and recording the usage time of the inner tube rubber layer 11, and an information communication means 32 for transmitting the usage time. Note that these devices are merely examples, and the machine 3 can be equipped with any device as the usage time measuring means.

[0053] (server) As shown in Figure 7, the server 40 includes a database 41, a degradation model creation means 42, a usage time calculation means 43, a remaining lifespan prediction means 44, and an information communication means 45. Database 41 stores various information used to predict the remaining lifespan of hose 1. Database 41 can receive information from degradation model creation means 42. The usage time calculation means 43 calculates the usage time for the hose 1 currently in use up to the predicted time. The usage time calculation means 43 preferably includes a data acquisition means (not shown; for example, a terminal equipped with a receiving device) for acquiring time data of the inner tube rubber layer 11 of the hose 1 in use up to the predicted time.

[0054] The information communication means 45 transmits the predicted remaining lifespan of the hose 1 currently in use to the terminal 50. The information communication means 45 also communicates with the machine 3 and the terminal 50 via the network 60, through the server 40. The contents of the server 40 can also be incorporated into the machine 3. The terminal 50 can also be incorporated into the machine 3.

[0055] (Method for creating degraded models) The degradation model creation means 42 can create information used to predict the remaining lifespan of the hose 1 and transmit the information to the database 41. For hoses of the same type as the hose 1 currently in use, the degradation model creation means 42 determines the relationship between the usage time of the inner tube rubber layer and the physical properties of the rubber constituting the inner tube rubber layer, and creates a degradation model of the inner tube rubber layer.

[0056] The physical properties of the rubber constituting the inner tube rubber layer used in the degradation model are not particularly limited, but are preferably, for example, elongation at break, strength at break, and hardness. This is because these are indicators that are commonly used as physical properties of rubber and can be measured accurately. However, the physical properties of the rubber used in the degradation model are not limited to these indicators, and multiple indicators may be used. In this reference example, an example using elongation at break will be explained.

[0057] Furthermore, in this reference example, one example of a degradation model can be a graph showing the relationship between usage time and the physical properties of the rubber (in this example, the elongation of the rubber at break), as shown in Figure 4 above.

[0058] Furthermore, when using multiple indicators from among elongation at break, strength at break, and hardness as physical properties of rubber, a degradation model should be created for each of these physical properties.

[0059] (Method for calculating usage time) The usage time calculation means 43 calculates (obtains) the cumulative usage time of the inner tube rubber layer 11 of the hose 1 in use from the start of use to the predicted time.

[0060] The usage time calculation means 43 (data acquisition means) preferably acquires data transmitted from the machine, etc. 3 via the network 60.

[0061] (Means for predicting remaining lifespan) The remaining life prediction means 44 predicts the remaining life of the hose 1 in use based on a comparison between the usage time of the inner tube rubber layer 11, calculated by the usage time calculation means 43, and the deterioration model created by the deterioration model creation means 42, which is stored in the database 41.

[0062] More specifically, as shown in Figure 5, for example, a threshold value for the physical properties of the rubber constituting the inner tube rubber layer 11 can be set as the usage limit for the inner tube rubber layer 11, and the remaining life can be predicted by the time elapsed in the degradation model from the time when the physical properties reach the threshold value (point B) to the time when the physical properties reach the threshold value. According to the above method, the remaining life of the hose can be predicted more simply and accurately.

[0063] The threshold may be pre-set in the remaining life prediction means 44, or it can be entered or changed manually by the user.

[0064] Here, the method for setting the threshold values ​​for the physical properties of rubber is not particularly limited, but for example, the physical properties of a faulty hose of the same type as the hose 1 currently in use can be measured and the threshold values ​​can be set based on those measurements.

[0065] Furthermore, it is preferable to set the threshold values ​​for the physical properties of the rubber to values ​​before the actual wear limit of the inner tube rubber layer 11 is reached, so that the hose 1 can be replaced before a failure occurs in the hose 1.

[0066] The remaining life prediction means can be configured, for example, to estimate the elongation at break of the rubber constituting the inner tube rubber layer 11 of the hose 1 at the time of use at a reference temperature (A), by plotting the usage time on a degradation model, as shown in Figure 5, similar to the remaining life prediction process described above.

[0067] Furthermore, in setting the degradation model and threshold, it is preferable to use the index that shows the fastest degradation of physical properties among multiple indices.

[0068] (terminal) The terminal 50 receives the remaining lifespan of the hose 1 predicted by the remaining lifespan prediction means 44, and can, for example, display the remaining lifespan of the hose 1 on the display screen.

[0069] Using the hose remaining life prediction system in this example, it is possible to easily predict the remaining life of a hose 1 in use, which has an inner rubber layer 11 affected by additives in the fluid, simply by obtaining the usage time (cumulative usage time), without the need to monitor pressure, etc., in machinery, etc. 3.

[0070] As shown in Figure 8, the degradation model (degradation curve) changes depending on the type of additive. For example, degradation curve A is for the case where an additive that easily degrades rubber is used, and degradation curve B is for the case where an additive that does not easily degrade rubber is used.

[0071] Furthermore, rubber can deteriorate and have a shorter lifespan when exposed to high temperatures. For example, continuous use of machine 3 may cause the fluid flowing through hose 1 to become hot. When the hot fluid comes into contact with rubber, the rubber heats up, which can accelerate its deterioration. Thus, in usage scenarios where temperature accelerates rubber degradation, it is preferable to create a degradation model using a fluid at the same temperature as the hose 1 being used.

[0072] (Note 1) A method for predicting the remaining lifespan of a hose in use, comprising an inner tube rubber layer composed of rubber that comes into contact with a fluid containing an additive and whose physical properties are affected by the additive over time, and a reinforcing layer disposed on the outer circumference of the inner tube rubber layer, wherein the remaining lifespan of the hose is predicted. A degradation model creation step involves using the fluid described above to determine the relationship between the usage time and the physical properties of the inner rubber layer of a hose of the same type as the hose currently in use, and creating a degradation model of the inner rubber layer. Regarding the hose currently in use, a usage time calculation process is performed to determine the usage time of the inner rubber layer from the start of use until the time of the prediction. A remaining lifespan prediction step predicts the remaining lifespan of the hose in use based on the usage time calculated in the usage time calculation step and the degradation model created in the degradation model creation step. A method for predicting the remaining lifespan of a hose, including the hose itself.

[0073] (Note 2) A hose remaining life prediction system for predicting the remaining life of a hose in use, comprising an inner tube rubber layer composed of rubber that comes into contact with a fluid containing an additive and whose physical properties are affected by the additive over time, and a reinforcing layer disposed on the outer circumference of the inner tube rubber layer, A deterioration model creation means for a hose of the same type as the hose currently in use, which uses the fluid to determine the relationship between the usage time and the physical properties of the inner rubber layer, and creates a deterioration model for the inner rubber layer. Regarding the hose currently in use, a means for calculating the usage time of the inner rubber layer from the start of use until the time of the prediction is made, A remaining life prediction means predicts the remaining life of the hose in use based on the usage time calculated by the usage time calculation means and the deterioration model created by the deterioration model creation means. A hose remaining life prediction system, including the hose itself.

[0074] [Embodiment] Next, a method for predicting the remaining lifespan of a hose and a system for predicting the remaining lifespan of a hose according to one embodiment of the present invention will be described. Note that components identical to those in Reference Example 1 described above are denoted by the same reference numerals, and their descriptions are omitted. This embodiment predicts the lifespan of the hose 1 when the physical properties of the inner tube rubber layer 11 change due to the physical properties of the fluid itself.

[0075] <Method for predicting the remaining lifespan of a hose according to this embodiment> The inventors diligently investigated the usage patterns of the hose and the factors causing deterioration of the inner rubber layer 11. They discovered that in machines such as machine 3, fluids without additives are sometimes used, and that the physical properties of the inner rubber layer 11 change over time due to the influence of the fluid's own properties, specifically, deterioration over time. Therefore, the inventors considered that it would be possible to predict the remaining lifespan of hose 1 by using the same type (identical) of fluid that comes into contact with the inner rubber layer 11 of hose 1 during use. This embodiment is based on this idea. It should be noted that the degree of change (deterioration over time) of the inner rubber layer 11 may also vary depending on the influence of the fluid itself.

[0076] In this embodiment, the same reference numerals are used for components identical to those in Reference Example 1 described above, and their descriptions are omitted. The hose 1 in this embodiment, like the hose 1 in Reference Example 1 described above, is used by being attached to a machine or the like 3.

[0077] In the method for predicting the remaining lifespan of a hose according to this embodiment, the following steps are taken: First, for a hose of the same type as the hose 1 currently in use, the relationship between the usage time of the inner rubber layer and the physical properties of the rubber constituting the inner rubber layer is determined using the same type (identical) fluid that contacts the inner rubber layer 11 of the hose 1 currently in use, and a deterioration model of the inner rubber layer is created (deterioration model creation step). Second, the usage time of the inner rubber layer 11 up to the prediction date is calculated for the hose 1 currently in use (usage time calculation step). Third, the remaining lifespan of the hose 1 currently in use is predicted based on a comparison between the usage time calculated in the usage time calculation step and the deterioration model created in the deterioration model creation step (remaining lifespan prediction step). This is the same as in the above-mentioned Reference Example 1; see Figure 3.

[0078] (Process for creating a degraded model) Similar to the aforementioned Reference Example 1, in the degradation model creation process, a hose of the same type as the hose 1 currently in use is prepared in advance. For this hose, the relationship between the usage time of the inner tube rubber and the physical properties of the rubber constituting the inner tube rubber layer is determined, and a degradation model of the inner tube rubber layer is created.

[0079] Similar to the aforementioned Reference Example 1, the degradation model can be created by, for example, continuously circulating a fluid (the same type of fluid as in hose 1 currently in use) through the same type of hose and measuring the elongation at break of the rubber constituting the inner tube rubber layer over multiple usage periods. Based on the results obtained, a graph showing the change in the value of the rubber's elongation at break can be created.

[0080] (Usage time calculation process) Similar to the aforementioned Reference Example 1, the usage time calculation process involves, for example, determining the cumulative time of the inner rubber layer 11 of the hose 1 currently in use, from the start of use to the predicted time.

[0081] (Remaining life prediction process) Similar to the above-mentioned Reference Example 1, the remaining life prediction process predicts the remaining life of hose 1 in use based on a comparison between the usage time calculated in the usage time calculation process and the degradation model created in the degradation model creation process (same as above-mentioned Reference Example 1; see Figure 6).

[0082] According to the hose remaining life prediction method of this embodiment, in a hose 1 in use equipped with an inner rubber layer 11 that is affected by the physical properties of the fluid, there is no need to monitor pressure, etc., and the remaining life of the hose can be easily predicted by a machine, etc. 3 simply by obtaining the usage time (cumulative usage time).

[0083] <Hose remaining life prediction system according to this embodiment> Next, a hose remaining life prediction system according to one embodiment of the present invention will be described. Since the hose remaining life prediction system according to this embodiment has the same device configuration (hardware) as Reference Example 1 described above, the description of the device configuration will be omitted, and only the differences will be described below.

[0084] In the degradation model creation means 42 of the remaining life prediction system 100 of this embodiment, a hose of the same type as the hose 1 currently in use and a fluid without additives used in the hose 1 are used to determine the relationship between the usage time of the inner tube rubber layer and the physical properties of the rubber constituting the inner tube rubber layer, thereby creating a degradation model of the inner tube rubber layer.

[0085] As a result, in the hose remaining life prediction system 100 according to this embodiment, for a hose 1 in use equipped with an inner tube rubber layer 11 that is affected by the physical properties of the fluid, there is no need for the machine or other equipment 3 to monitor pressure, etc., and the remaining life of the hose can be easily predicted simply by obtaining the usage time (cumulative usage time).

[0086] Furthermore, if the fluid is oil, the rubber of the inner tube rubber layer 11 may swell and become more stretchable upon contact with the oil. As a result, the elongation at break may improve, potentially extending the lifespan of the hose 1.

[0087] Furthermore, using oil with a low aniline point makes the rubber more prone to swelling and stretching, thus suppressing deterioration (for example, worsening of elongation at break). As a result, hose 1 using oil with a low aniline point will have a longer lifespan compared to hose using oil with a high aniline point.

[0088] Figure 9 shows, as an example, degradation curve C when using an oil with a high aniline point and degradation curve D when using an oil with a low aniline point.

[0089] [Reference example 2] Next, we will describe the method for predicting the remaining lifespan of a hose and the hose remaining lifespan prediction system related to Reference Example 2. Note that components identical to those in Reference Example 1 are denoted by the same reference numerals, and their explanations are omitted. This reference example 2 predicts the lifespan of a hose 1 in which the inner rubber layer 11 deteriorates due to fluid degradation.

[0090] <Method for predicting the remaining lifespan of a hose related to Reference Example 2> The inventors diligently investigated the usage patterns of the hose and the factors causing deterioration of the inner rubber layer 11. They concluded that in machines such as machine 3, deteriorated fluid may be used continuously, and that the physical properties of the inner rubber layer 11 change over time due to the influence of the deteriorated fluid, with the inner rubber layer 11 deteriorating over time as one example. Therefore, the inventors considered that it would be possible to predict the remaining lifespan of hose 1 by using the same type (identical) of fluid that is in contact with the inner rubber layer 11 of hose 1 during use. This reference example was made based on this idea. It should be noted that the degree of change (deterioration over time) of the inner rubber layer 11 may also change due to the influence of the deteriorated fluid.

[0091] In this reference example, components identical to those in Reference Example 1 are denoted by the same reference numerals, and their explanations are omitted. Furthermore, hose 1 in this reference example, like hose 1 in Reference Example 1, is used by being attached to machinery, etc. 3.

[0092] In the method for predicting the remaining lifespan of a hose according to this reference example, the relationship between the usage time of the inner rubber layer and the physical properties of the rubber constituting the inner rubber layer is determined in advance for a hose of the same type as the hose 1 currently in use, and a deterioration model of the inner rubber layer is created (deterioration model creation step). The usage time of the inner rubber layer 11 up to the prediction time for the hose 1 currently in use is calculated (usage time calculation step). Based on the comparison between the usage time calculated in the usage time calculation step and the deterioration model created in the deterioration model creation step, the remaining lifespan of the hose 1 currently in use is predicted (remaining lifespan prediction step), thereby predicting the remaining lifespan of the hose 1 currently in use (similar to the example shown in Figure 3).

[0093] (Process for creating a degraded model) Similar to the aforementioned Reference Example 1, in the degradation model creation process, a hose of the same type as the hose currently in use (in other words, a hose attached to and used in machinery, etc.) 1 is prepared in advance, and the relationship between the usage time of the inner rubber and the physical properties of the rubber constituting the inner rubber layer is determined for this hose, and a degradation model of the inner rubber layer is created.

[0094] Similar to the aforementioned Reference Example 1, the degradation model can be created by, for example, continuously circulating a fluid (the same type (identical) degraded fluid as in hose 1 currently in use) through the same type of hose, measuring the elongation at break of the rubber constituting the inner tube rubber layer over multiple usage periods, and then creating a graph showing the change in the value of the rubber's elongation at break based on the obtained results.

[0095] (Usage time calculation process) Similar to the aforementioned Reference Example 1, the usage time calculation process involves, for example, determining the cumulative time of the inner rubber layer 11 of the hose 1 currently in use, from the start of use to the predicted time.

[0096] (Remaining life prediction process) Similar to the aforementioned Reference Example 1, the remaining life prediction process predicts the remaining life of hose 1 in use based on a comparison between the usage time calculated in the usage time calculation process and the degradation model created in the degradation model creation process.

[0097] More specifically, as shown in Figure 5, for example, this can be done by setting a threshold value for the physical properties of the rubber constituting the inner tube rubber layer 11 as the usage limit for the inner tube rubber layer 11, and predicting the remaining life as the time from the start of use to the time when the physical properties reach the threshold value in the degradation model.

[0098] According to the hose remaining life prediction method in this reference example, for a hose 1 in use equipped with an inner rubber layer 11 that is affected by fluid degradation, the remaining life of the hose can be easily predicted by simply obtaining the usage time (cumulative usage time) without the need for the machine 3 to monitor pressure, etc.

[0099] <Hose remaining lifespan prediction system related to Reference Example 2> Next, we will describe the hose remaining life prediction system according to Reference Example 2. Since the hose remaining life prediction system according to Reference Example 2 has the same device configuration (hardware) as Reference Example 1 described above, we will omit the explanation of the device configuration and explain only the differences below.

[0100] In the degradation model creation means 42 of the remaining life prediction system in this reference example, a hose of the same type as the hose 1 currently in use and the fluid used in the hose 1 are used to determine the relationship between the usage time of the inner tube rubber layer and the physical properties of the rubber constituting the inner tube rubber layer, thereby creating a degradation model of the inner tube rubber layer.

[0101] As a result, in the hose remaining life prediction system according to this reference example, for a hose 1 in use equipped with an inner rubber layer 11 that is affected by the physical properties of the fluid, it is not necessary for the machine or other equipment 3 to monitor pressure, etc., and the remaining life of the hose can be easily predicted simply by obtaining the usage time (cumulative usage time).

[0102] Figures 10(A) and (B) show, as examples, degradation curves for cases where fluid degradation is small and large, respectively.

[0103] (Note 3) A method for predicting the remaining lifespan of a hose in use, comprising at least an inner tube rubber layer composed of rubber that comes into contact with a fluid that deteriorates over time and whose physical properties are affected by the deterioration of the fluid over time, a reinforcing layer positioned on the outer circumference of the inner tube rubber layer, and an outer sheath layer positioned on the outer circumference of the reinforcing layer, wherein the remaining lifespan of the hose is predicted. A degradation model creation step involves using the fluid described above to determine the relationship between the usage time and the physical properties of the inner rubber layer of a hose of the same type as the hose currently in use, and creating a degradation model of the inner rubber layer. Regarding the hose currently in use, a usage time calculation process is performed to determine the usage time of the inner rubber layer from the start of use until the time of the prediction. A remaining lifespan prediction step predicts the remaining lifespan of the hose in use based on the usage time calculated in the usage time calculation step and the degradation model created in the degradation model creation step. A method for predicting the remaining lifespan of a hose, including the hose itself.

[0104] (Note 4) A hose remaining life prediction system for predicting the remaining life of a hose in use, comprising at least an inner tube rubber layer through which a fluid that deteriorates over time passes and which is affected by the deterioration of the fluid in terms of changes in its physical properties over time, a reinforcing layer positioned on the outer circumference of the inner tube rubber layer, and an outer sheath layer positioned on the outer circumference of the reinforcing layer, A deterioration model creation means for a hose of the same type as the hose currently in use, which uses the fluid to determine the relationship between the usage time and the physical properties of the inner rubber layer, and creates a deterioration model for the inner rubber layer. Regarding the hose currently in use, a means for calculating the usage time of the inner rubber layer from the start of use until the time of the prediction is made, A remaining life prediction means predicts the remaining life of the hose in use based on the usage time calculated by the usage time calculation means and the deterioration model created by the deterioration model creation means. A hose remaining life prediction system, including the hose itself.

[0105] [Reference example 3] Next, we will describe the method for predicting the remaining lifespan of a hose and the hose remaining lifespan prediction system related to Reference Example 3. Note that components identical to those in Reference Example 1 are denoted by the same reference numerals, and their explanations are omitted. This reference example 3 modifies the threshold value according to the usage of the hose (degree of distortion; for example, the degree of bending).

[0106] <Reference Example 3: Method for predicting the remaining lifespan of a hose, and a system for predicting the remaining lifespan of a hose> In general, when comparing rubber subjected to a large tensile force (tensile strain) with rubber subjected to a small tensile force (or no tensile force), the rubber subjected to the large tensile force tends to be more prone to failure (for example, crack formation, crack propagation, etc.). In other words, rubber subjected to a large tensile force (tensile strain) will have a shorter lifespan compared to rubber subjected to a small tensile force (or no tensile force).

[0107] For example, hose 1 can be used in two ways: one is fixed in a state where the radius of curvature R is relatively large (in other words, hose 1 is not bent much, including straight lines), as shown in Figure 11(A); the other is fixed in a state where the radius of curvature R is relatively small (in other words, bent a lot), as shown in Figure 11(B). The latter case (Hose 1 in Figure 11(B)) results in greater strain acting on the rubber compared to the former case (Hose 1 in Figure 11(A)). Therefore, even if the physical properties of the rubber (elongation at break) are the same, rubber that exhibits greater deformation will have a shorter lifespan. When hose 1 is bent, the rubber on the outer side of the radius of curvature is stretched (the rubber on the inner side of the radius of curvature is compressed), causing tensile strain. The smaller the radius of curvature of hose 1, the greater the tensile strain in the rubber of hose 1.

[0108] Therefore, even when using the same fluid, it is preferable to change the threshold values ​​of the physical properties according to the magnitude of the strain generated in the inner tube rubber layer 11 (especially in the case of rubber, the magnitude of strain due to tension). The strain referred to here is, for example, the maximum strain acting on hose 1.

[0109] Specifically, as shown in Figure 12, the threshold is shifted upward as the distortion increases. The amount by which the threshold is shifted is to use a hose of the same type as the hose 1 currently in use, bend it in the same way as the hose 1 currently in use to create a degradation model, set the usage time at the point when the hose in the degradation model fails (for example, when a crack occurs and fluid leaks) as the usage limit, and store this threshold in the remaining life prediction means 44.

[0110] (Note 5) A method for predicting the remaining lifespan of a hose in use, comprising at least an inner rubber layer and a reinforcing layer disposed on the outer circumference side of the inner rubber layer, A degradation model creation step is performed in which, in advance, for a hose of the same type and usage form as the hose currently in use, the relationship between the usage time and the physical properties of the rubber of the inner tube rubber layer is determined using the fluid, and a degradation model of the inner tube rubber layer is created. Regarding the hose currently in use, a usage time calculation process is performed to determine the usage time of the inner rubber layer from the start of use until the time of the prediction. The usage limit of the inner tube rubber layer is set by a threshold setting step in which a threshold value for the physical property value is set according to the magnitude of the strain that occurs in the inner tube rubber layer, A remaining life prediction step is performed, which takes into account the usage time calculated in the usage time calculation step and the degradation model created in the degradation model creation step, and predicts the remaining life of the hose in use as the time from the time elapsed in the degradation model until the usage time at which the physical property value becomes the threshold, A method for predicting the remaining lifespan of a hose, including the hose itself.

[0111] (Note 6) The aforementioned strain is the maximum strain acting on the hose. The method for predicting the remaining lifespan of the hose as described in Appendix 5.

[0112] (Note 7) A hose remaining life prediction system for predicting the remaining life of a hose in use, comprising at least an inner rubber layer and a reinforcing layer disposed on the outer circumference side of the inner rubber layer, A deterioration model creation means for determining the relationship between the usage time and the physical properties of the inner tube rubber layer of a hose of the same type and usage form as the hose currently in use, using the fluid, and creating a deterioration model of the inner tube rubber layer. Regarding the hose currently in use, a means for calculating the usage time of the inner rubber layer from the start of use until the time of the prediction is made, The usage limit of the inner tube rubber layer is defined by a threshold setting means which sets a threshold value for the physical property value according to the magnitude of the strain that occurs in the inner tube rubber layer, A remaining life prediction means predicts the remaining life of the hose in use, taking into account the usage time calculated by the usage time calculation means and the degradation model created by the degradation model creation means, and the time from the time elapsed in the degradation model until the usage time at which the physical property value becomes the threshold is reached. A hose remaining life prediction system, including the hose itself.

[0113] (Note 8) The aforementioned strain is the maximum strain acting on the hose. The hose remaining life prediction system described in Appendix 7.

[0114] [Reference example 4] Next, we will describe the method for predicting the remaining lifespan of a hose and the hose remaining lifespan prediction system related to Reference Example 4. Note that components identical to those in Reference Example 1 are denoted by the same reference numerals, and their explanations are omitted. This reference example 4 changes the threshold depending on the way the hose is used (for example, how it is bent), but the usage is different from that of reference example 3.

[0115] <Reference Example 4: Method for predicting the remaining lifespan of a hose, and a system for predicting the remaining lifespan of a hose> In general rubber, when comparing cases where repeated stress is applied (for example, when the stress changes in magnitude) with cases where no repeated stress is applied, rubber subjected to repeated stress tends to be more prone to failure (for example, crack formation, crack propagation, etc.). In other words, rubber subjected to a large tensile force (tensile strain) will have a shorter lifespan compared to rubber subjected to a small tensile force (or no tensile force).

[0116] As for the hose 1 used in machine 3, for example, as shown in Figures 13(A) and 13(B), there are cases where the distance L between one end and the other end in the longitudinal direction changes so that it forms a convex shape in one direction (direction of arrow A), and cases where the distance L between one end and the other end in the longitudinal direction does not change (not shown; in other words, when the hose 1 does not move). In the former case, the lifespan of the rubber is shorter than in the latter case. Furthermore, the greater the amplitude of hose 1, and the more times it is repeated, the shorter the lifespan of the rubber will be.

[0117] Therefore, even when using the same fluid, it is preferable to change the threshold values ​​of the physical properties depending on the usage of hose 1.

[0118] Specifically, the larger the amplitude of hose 1, and the more repetitions there are, the higher the threshold is shifted, as shown in Figure 14. The amount by which the threshold is shifted is to use a hose of the same type as the hose 1 currently in use, operate the hose in the same way as the hose 1 currently in use to create a degradation model, set the usage time at the point when the hose in the degradation model fails (for example, when a crack occurs and fluid leaks) as the usage limit, and store the threshold in the remaining life prediction means 44.

[0119] (Note 9) A method for predicting the remaining lifespan of a hose in use, comprising an inner tube rubber layer in which a fluid comes into contact with the interior and in which the distance between one end and the other end in the longitudinal direction varies in magnitude so as to be convex in one direction, and a reinforcing layer positioned on the outer circumference side of the inner tube rubber layer, wherein the remaining lifespan of the hose is predicted. A degradation model creation step is performed in which, in advance, for a hose of the same type and usage form as the hose currently in use, the relationship between the usage time and the physical properties of the rubber of the inner tube rubber layer is determined using the fluid, and a degradation model of the inner tube rubber layer is created. Regarding the hose currently in use, a usage time calculation process is performed to determine the usage time of the inner rubber layer from the start of use until the time of the prediction. A threshold setting step is performed in which a threshold value for the physical property is set according to the amount of change in the distance of the inner tube rubber layer and the number of repeated bending cycles of the inner tube rubber layer due to the change in distance, as the limit of use of the inner tube rubber layer. A remaining life prediction step, which takes into account the usage time calculated by the usage time calculation means and the degradation model created by the degradation model creation means, predicts the remaining life of the hose in use as the time from the time elapsed in the degradation model until the usage time at which the physical property value becomes the threshold, A method for predicting the remaining lifespan of a hose, including the hose itself.

[0120] (Note 10) A hose remaining life prediction system for predicting the remaining life of a hose in use, comprising an inner tube rubber layer in which a fluid comes into contact with the interior and in which the distance between one end and the other end in the longitudinal direction varies in magnitude so as to be convex in one direction, and a reinforcing layer positioned on the outer circumference side of the inner tube rubber layer, A deterioration model creation means for determining the relationship between the usage time and the physical properties of the inner tube rubber layer of a hose of the same type and usage form as the hose currently in use, using the fluid, and creating a deterioration model of the inner tube rubber layer. Regarding the hose currently in use, a means for calculating the usage time of the inner rubber layer up to the time of the prediction is provided, The usage limit of the inner tube rubber layer is defined by a threshold setting means which sets a threshold value for the physical property according to the amount of change in the distance of the inner tube rubber layer and the number of repeated bending cycles of the inner tube rubber layer due to the change in distance. A remaining life prediction means predicts the remaining life of the hose in use, taking into account the usage time calculated by the usage time calculation means and the degradation model created by the degradation model creation means, and the time from the time elapsed in the degradation model until the usage time at which the physical property value becomes the threshold is reached. A hose remaining life prediction system, including the hose itself.

[0121] [Reference example 5] Next, we will describe the method for predicting the remaining lifespan of a hose and the hose remaining lifespan prediction system related to Reference Example 5. Note that components identical to those in Reference Example 1 are denoted by the same reference numerals, and their explanations are omitted. This reference example 5 changes the threshold value depending on how the hose is used (for example, how it is bent), but the usage is different from that of reference examples 3 and 4.

[0122] <Method and system for predicting the remaining lifespan of a hose, as per Reference Example 5> As an example, the hose 1 used in machine 3, etc., can be used in two ways: one is when the distance between one end and the other end in the longitudinal direction changes so that it deforms alternately in a convex shape in one direction and the other, as shown in Figures 15(A) and 15(B); and the other is when the distance L between one end and the other end in the longitudinal direction does not change (not shown; in other words, the hose 1 does not move). Therefore, the lifespan of the rubber is shorter in the former case compared to the latter. In addition, in the case of hose 1, which deforms alternately in a convex shape in one direction and in the other direction as in Reference Example 5, tension and compression are alternately applied to the rubber of the inner tube rubber layer 11.

[0123] Therefore, in the case of Reference Example 5, as in Reference Example 4, it is preferable to change the threshold values ​​of the physical properties according to the usage of hose 1.

[0124] Specifically, when hose 1 is used with varying distances between its longitudinal ends so that it deforms alternately in a convex shape in one direction and the other, the larger the amplitude of hose 1 and the more repetitions there are, the higher the threshold value is shifted, as shown in Figure 16.

[0125] The amount by which the threshold is shifted is to use a hose of the same type as the hose 1 currently in use, operate the hose in the same way as the hose 1 currently in use to create a degradation model, set the usage time at the point when the hose in the degradation model fails (for example, when a crack occurs and fluid leaks) as the usage limit, and store the threshold in the remaining life prediction means 44.

[0126] (Note 11) A method for predicting the remaining lifespan of a hose in use, which has an inner rubber layer that is used in such a way that it is alternately convex in one direction and the other direction when a fluid comes into contact with the inside, and the distance between one end and the other end in the longitudinal direction changes in magnitude, and a reinforcing layer that is positioned on the outer circumference side of the inner rubber layer, the remaining lifespan of the hose, A degradation model creation step is performed in which, in advance, for a hose of the same type and usage form as the hose currently in use, the relationship between the usage time of the inner tube rubber layer and the physical properties of the rubber constituting the inner tube rubber layer is determined using the fluid, and a degradation model of the inner tube rubber layer is created. Regarding the hose currently in use, a usage time calculation process is performed to determine the usage time of the inner rubber layer from the start of use until the time of the prediction. A threshold setting step is performed in which a threshold value for the physical property is set according to the number of repeated bending cycles of the inner tube rubber layer due to the change in distance, as the limit of use for the inner tube rubber layer. A remaining life prediction step, which takes into account the usage time calculated by the usage time calculation means and the degradation model created by the degradation model creation means, predicts the remaining life of the hose in use as the time from the time elapsed in the degradation model until the usage time at which the physical property value becomes a threshold, A method for predicting the remaining lifespan of a hose, including the hose itself.

[0127] (Note 12) A hose remaining life prediction system for predicting the remaining life of a hose in use, which has an inner tube rubber layer that is used in such a way that it is alternately convex in one direction and the other direction when a fluid comes into contact with the inside, and the distance between one end and the other end in the longitudinal direction changes in magnitude, and a reinforcing layer that is positioned on the outer circumference side of the inner tube rubber layer, The same type and identical as the hose currently in use. use Regarding the hose, a means for creating a degradation model for the inner rubber layer is used to determine the relationship between the usage time of the inner rubber layer and the physical properties of the rubber constituting the inner rubber layer, and a degradation model for the inner rubber layer is created. Regarding the hose currently in use, a means for calculating the usage time of the inner rubber layer up to the time of the prediction is provided, A threshold setting step is performed in which a threshold value for the physical property is set according to the number of repeated bending cycles of the inner tube rubber layer due to the change in distance, as the limit of use for the inner tube rubber layer. A remaining life prediction means predicts the remaining life of the hose in use, taking into account the usage time calculated by the usage time calculation means and the degradation model created by the degradation model creation means, and the time from the time elapsed in the degradation model until the usage time at which the physical property value becomes a threshold is reached. A hose remaining life prediction system, including the hose itself.

[0128] [Other embodiments] Although one embodiment of the present invention has been described above, it goes without saying that the present invention is not limited to the above, and can be implemented in various ways without departing from the spirit of the invention.

[0129] As explained earlier, in usage scenarios where temperature accelerates rubber degradation, it is preferable to create a degradation model using a fluid at the same temperature as the hose 1 being used. The same applies to the above embodiments and all reference examples.

[0130] Furthermore, the hose remaining life prediction method and hose remaining life prediction system of this embodiment can be combined with the hose remaining life prediction methods and hose remaining life prediction systems of Reference Examples 1 to 5 as needed. [Explanation of symbols]

[0131] 1...Hose, 11...Inner tube rubber layer, 12...Reinforcement layer, 42...Method for creating a deterioration model, 43...Method for calculating usage time, 44...Method for predicting remaining life, 100...Hose remaining life prediction system

Claims

1. A method for predicting the remaining lifespan of a hose in use, comprising at least an inner tube rubber layer made of rubber in which a fluid comes into contact with the interior and whose physical properties are affected by the physical properties of the fluid over time, a reinforcing layer disposed on the outer circumference of the inner tube rubber layer, and an outer sheath layer disposed on the outer circumference of the reinforcing layer, A deterioration model creation step involves first determining the relationship between the usage time and the physical properties of the inner rubber layer of a hose of the same type as the hose currently in use, using the fluid, and then correcting the relationship based on the physical properties of the fluid used to create a deterioration model of the inner rubber layer. Regarding the hose currently in use, a usage time calculation process is performed to determine the usage time of the inner rubber layer from the start of use until the time of the prediction. A remaining lifespan prediction step predicts the remaining lifespan of the hose in use based on the usage time calculated in the usage time calculation step and the degradation model created in the degradation model creation step. Includes, In the degradation model creation process, if the aniline point of the fluid is low, a correction is made to shorten the remaining life in the relationship, and if the aniline point of the fluid is high, a correction is made to lengthen the remaining life in the relationship. A method for predicting the remaining lifespan of a hose.

2. A hose remaining life prediction system for predicting the remaining life of a hose in use, comprising at least an inner tube rubber layer made of rubber in which a fluid comes into contact with the interior and whose physical properties are affected by the physical properties of the fluid over time, a reinforcing layer disposed on the outer circumference of the inner tube rubber layer, and an outer sheath layer disposed on the outer circumference of the reinforcing layer, A deterioration model creation means for a hose of the same type as the hose currently in use, which determines the relationship between the usage time and the physical properties of the inner rubber layer using the fluid, and then creates a deterioration model of the inner rubber layer after correcting the relationship based on the physical properties of the fluid being used. Regarding the hose currently in use, a means for calculating the usage time of the inner rubber layer from the start of use until the time of the prediction is made, A remaining life prediction means predicts the remaining life of the hose in use based on the usage time calculated by the usage time calculation means and the deterioration model created by the deterioration model creation means. Includes, The degradation model creation means performs a correction to shorten the remaining life of the relationship when the aniline point of the fluid is low, and performs a correction to lengthen the remaining life of the relationship when the aniline point of the fluid is high. A system for predicting the remaining lifespan of hoses.

Images