Method for determining the locations of ice jams during the spring flood

Abstract

FIELD: hydraulic engineering.SUBSTANCE: water flow is measured upstream and downstream of the section of the river monitored for the jam forecast using a system of sensors installed at the beginning and at the end of the river section monitored for the jam forecast, and if there are watercourses flowing into the monitored section of the river, the sensors are additionally installed at the mouths of these watercourses and then, when calculating the water flow, they are summed up, and if there are other watercourses flowing out of the monitored section of the river and having their origin, the sensors are additionally installed at the source of these watercourses and then, when calculating the water flow, they are subtracted, the water flow at the beginning Qin of the monitored section of the river is calculated taking into account the watercourses flowing into this section and the water flow at the end Qout of the monitored section of the river taking into account the watercourses flowing out of this section, and then the ratio k = Qout / Qin or the difference is calculated ΔQ = Qout-Qin and for k < 1 or Δ Q < 0 predicts the occurrence of a jam on the controlled section of the river.EFFECT: reliability of determining the locations of ice jams in a river channel.3 cl, 3 dwg, 1 tbl

Description

[0001] The invention relates to the field of hydraulic engineering [E02B 1 / 00, E02B 3 / 00].

[0002] Catastrophic floods and other natural disasters caused by abnormal hydrometeorological phenomena are obvious sources of threats to national water security. Currently, up to 3.0% of Russia's territory is susceptible to floods, which are potentially dangerous for the population and economy of its territory. Half of the floods that lead to major socio-economic and environmental damage develop during spring floods [D.V. Kozlov, S.L. Kuleshov Multivariate Data Analysis in Assessing Flood Jam Formation Factors in River Basins / / Water Resources, 2019, Vol. 46, No. 2, pp. 132-141, UDC 627.131: 627.152.12, DOI: 10.31857 / S0321-0596462132-141].

[0003] Ice jams are multilayered accumulations of ice material in a riverbed that form during ice movement and ice drift. They restrict the flow, thereby causing water levels to rise above the jam's formation and flooding adjacent areas. Ice jams are typically observed in the spring during river breakup and consist of large and small floes. This natural phenomenon is typical for north-flowing rivers.

[0004] Ice problems include not only ice jams that occur when rivers break up, but also ice jams that form on slush-bearing rivers during the freezing period. These phenomena are characterized by the accumulation of slush and small ice fragments in the riverbed, which also causes a rise in water levels.

[0005] The most powerful ice jams are formed during the spring ice drift; ice jams usually occur in the pre-ice period, as well as during the winter when there are large non-freezing sections of the river.

[0006] The formation of a powerful ice jam is facilitated by a certain combination of freezing and ice-breakup conditions. During the freezing period, these are high water levels, repeated ice drift, and ice jam phenomena [Buzin, V.A. Ice jams and ice jam floods on rivers. St. Petersburg: Gidrometeoizdat, 2004. 196 p.]. During the ice-breakup period, such conditions include:

[0007] - channel contamination by 50-80% of the cross-sectional area;- high speed (0.6-0.8 m / s) of water flow at the surface;

[0008] - at the beginning of the ice breakup, the ice thickness is >0.7 m with its ratio to the thickness at the ice jam site being <0.5;

[0009] - slight (10-30%) decrease in ice strength;

[0010] - drain module -30-70 l / s km 2 during snow melting - 5-7 mm / day in the upper part of the river basin;

[0011] - intensive ice influx from the upper reaches of the river and tributaries. The ice jam formation factors listed above are hydrometeorological, or variable, factors that change from year to year and determine the likelihood of ice jam formation.

[0012] Morphological factors are considered to be constant factors of ice jam formation, which primarily include the presence of channel obstacles in the form of islands, branches, turns, bends, narrowings, reaches and riffles, etc. They contribute to the intensification of the process of ice jam formation [Buzin V.A. Ice jams and ice jams on the rivers of Russia. St. Petersburg: Publishing House of the State Hydrometeorological Institute, 2016. 242 p.]. The same source indicates that in order to predict ice jam floods, it is necessary to assess the influence of the backwater from downstream sections on the parameters of ice jam floods in jam-prone sections of rivers and to construct classification functions for sections with and without backwater and to evaluate the influence of characteristic elements of the river channel structure on the frequency of ice jam formation within the river basin.To quantitatively assess the influence of the backwater from downstream sections on the parameters of ice jam floods in jam-prone sections of rivers, it is proposed to use one of the methods of multivariate data analysis - discriminant analysis, and to solve the problem of the influence of various elements of the morphometric structure of the river channel on the frequency of occurrence of ice jams within the boundaries of enlarged river basins, it is proposed to use multiple regression analysis with dummy variables.

[0013] The disadvantage of the claimed method is that traffic jam phenomena are poorly predictable in terms of the time of occurrence and duration of action, and in this case, there is a need to develop special approaches and methods for making decisions under conditions of uncertainty regarding the rational choice of the volume of engineering and technical measures to reduce damage as a result of emergency situations caused by traffic jam phenomena, which are not disclosed in the described source of information.

[0014] From the Methodological Guidelines for Combating Ice Jams and Ice Blockages [VSN-028-70, USSR Ministry of Energy] it is known that the fight against ice blockages can be solved in three ways:

[0015] 1) by implementing preventive measures to control the process of ice formation and its drainage, that is, by eliminating or mitigating the causes and conditions for the occurrence of ice jams and ice dams;

[0016] 2) by directly combating already formed congestions and jams;

[0017] 3) ​​by predicting in advance the location of the formation of a congestion or jam and its severity.

[0018] These control methods can be used individually or in any combination, depending on the circumstances. Advance prediction of the location and maximum water level rise of a jam or ice jam can significantly reduce the damage caused by these events by taking appropriate measures to prepare for them.

[0019] To successfully eliminate the damage caused by traffic jams, it is necessary to focus on measures that prevent them from forming. Combating a traffic jam that has already formed is incomparably more difficult and less effective than measures taken to prevent it.

[0020] Preventive measures include various engineering and technical measures aimed at reducing the impact of negative factors of traffic congestion, which include:

[0021] 1) changes in morphological factors on river beds - straightening and clearing of river beds, dredging, artificial raising of floodplains and flooded areas, construction of drainage channels in flooded areas;

[0022] 2) construction of protective dams - ice protection dams, infiltration dams, flood control dams, temporary dams;

[0023] 3) weakening the ice field before the opening of rivers - blasting operations, ice cutting operations, blackening of ice;

[0024] 4) resettlement of the population and relocation of potentially dangerous objects from areas of possible flooding - provision of housing to the population and relocation of objects to areas outside the flood zone.

[0025] The implementation of the listed measures requires significant costs, and often, it is impossible to implement all of them comprehensively. The proposed measures help reduce damage resulting from emergencies caused by traffic jams; however, their implementation will require significant resources, which are limited.

[0026] At the same time, the probability of floods, especially those caused by ice jams, is still a difficult quantity to determine due to the many factors that must be taken into account when forecasting such events.

[0027] However, multivariate studies are a non-trivial task, requiring complex calculations under uncertainty. Furthermore, many models for determining the likelihood of ice jam floods do not fully account for all possible factors, and often, some factors are unknown.

[0028] The rapid rise in the water level in the river section is caused by the low throughput capacity of the water volume with a significant narrowing of the cross-section of the channel, which occurs as a result of the clogging of the sub-ice space by ice debris.

[0029] Ice drift on rivers flowing from south to north is typically quite intense and is accompanied by ice jams, causing water levels to rise significantly above critical levels. Such events are quite dangerous due to high flood levels, cold temperatures, and the potential for building destruction when ice masses reach the shore.

[0030] In hydrological practice, as a rule, distribution laws are considered that depend on “…a small number of parameters…” [Arguchintseva A.V. Methods of statistical processing and analysis of hydrometeorological observations: textbook / A. V. Arguchintseva. - Irkutsk: Irkutsk state university, 2007. - 105 p.]. More complex models, which take into account the time factor, meteorological conditions, morphological and anthropological factors in the formation of ice jams, must be considered taking into account the theory of random processes.

[0031] The main factors causing ice jams include anthropogenic, hydrometeorological and morphological factors [Buzin V.A. Ice jams and ice dams on the rivers of Russia. St. Petersburg: GGI Publishing House, 2016. - 242 p.], [Donchenko R.V. Ice regime of the rivers of the USSR. - Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat, 1987. - 247 p.], [Nigmetov G.M., Pchelkin V.I., Filatov Yu.A. Ice jams on the rivers of the Russian Federation, ways and methods of combating them / / Civil safety technologies. 2003. No. 1-2. URL: https: / / cyberleninka.ru / article / n / ledovye-zatory-na-rekah-rossiyskoy-federatsii-puti-i-sposoby-borby-s-nimi (date accessed: 04.02.2022)], [Kuleshov S.L. Probabilistic analysis of factors of ice jam formation in river basins (on the example of rivers of the North of the European and Asian parts of Russia): dissertation ... candidate of Technical Sciences: 05.23.16 / Kuleshov Sergey Leonidovich; [Place of protection: Federal State Budgetary Educational Institution of Higher Education "National Research Moscow State University of Civil Engineering"], 2019], [Kozlov, D.V.Multivariate data analysis in assessing ice jam factors in river basins / D.V. Kozlov, S.L. Kuleshov / / Water resources. - 2019. - Vol. 46. - No. 2. - Pp. 132-141. - DOI 10.31857 / S0321-0596462132-141].

[0032] Hydrometeorological factors typically exhibit annual dynamics. Furthermore, hydrometeorological factors are more widely applicable, as they are fundamentally climate-dependent. Generally, the following hydrometeorological factors influence river jam formation:

[0033] - ambient air temperature;

[0034] - change in ambient air temperature;

[0035] - temperature of the surface layer of water;

[0036] - temperature of the intra-aqueous water layer;

[0037] - heat exchange between the surface and subaqueous layers of water;

[0038] - heat exchange of ice with the atmosphere;

[0039] - turbulence of mixing of water layers;

[0040] - the speed of water flow in the river;

[0041] - depth of water in the river;

[0042] - water consumption;

[0043] - ice thickness;

[0044] - ice cover type;

[0045] - roughness of the lower surface of the ice cover;

[0046] - water level fluctuations.

[0047] The most significant factors in ice jam formation are: delayed ice breakup due to increased potential resistance of the ice cover; significant intensity of formation and advancement of the flood wave and flood discharge, which determines the force of the flow required to break up the ice cover, hummocking and compression of the ice; the quantity and strength of ice sufficient to form ice jam clusters [Donchenko RV. Ice regime of rivers of the USSR. - L.: Gidrometeoizdat, 1987. - 247 p.].

[0048] Statistical observation data show that the frequency of ice jams does not have an obvious cyclical nature, repeating constantly at the same time, and this makes it possible to assert that there is no statistical dependence of the number of floods on time, which leads to the difficulty of determining the start time of the implementation of the necessary and sufficient volume of engineering and technical measures to prevent emergency situations associated with ice jams.

[0049] Furthermore, an attempt to describe the probable structure of such a series of hydrological observations and to calculate the probability of an event occurring leads to the fact that "...time is merely a counter of observations, equal to the number of years of recording such phenomena. In this case, the sequence of the number of detected ice jam phenomena has no significance..." [Druzhinin VS Methods of statistical processing of hydrometeorological information: a tutorial / Druzhinin VS, Sikan AV - St. Petersburg: Russian State Hydrometeorological University, 2001. - 174 p. - ISBN 5-86813-029-4 / / URL: https: / / www.iprbookshop.ru / 14904.html].

[0050] Thus, ice jam formation, as well as the hydrological floods on rivers caused by ice jams, are multifactorial and incompletely studied river processes. Analysis and quantitative assessment of the factors influencing the frequency of ice jams and the parameters of ice jam floods remains a relevant area of ​​modern hydrophysical research.

[0051] A SYSTEM AND PROCESS FOR MAPPING FLOOD EXTENSION AND IDENTIFYING FLOOD RISK ZONES is known from the prior art [AU2020102997A4, published: 24.12.2020], adopted as a prototype for the claimed solution, where a system for mapping a flooded area and identifying flood risk zones, the system includes an input module for obtaining landscapes of the area, where the landscapes of the area are obtained using a chain, tapes, boats, GPS, plumb bobs, current meters, a data collection module in connection with an input module for collecting hydraulic and hydrological data sets of the river, where hydrological data sets such as flow and velocity are collected using current meters, where hydraulic data are collected from a database, a flood simulation model associated with the data collection module for simulating flooding of the area, where the flood simulation model analyzes the hydraulics of river channels and streams where the flood simulation model calculates water surface profiles;and a computing unit connected to the flood simulation model for comparing the result obtained from the flood simulation of the flood simulation model with the database and thus calibrating the flood simulation model to correct the simulation of the flood area to determine the flood risk zone.

[0052] The process of mapping the flood area and determining the flood risk zone stated in AU2020102997A4 (issued on 24.12.2020), including obtaining the terrain landscapes using chain, tape, boat, GPS, plumb bob, and current meters, collecting hydraulic data and river hydrological data sets, simulating the flooding of the terrain and analyzing the hydraulics of river channels and streams, calibrating the flood simulation model by comparing the results obtained from the flood simulation with the database; and determining the flood risk zone based on the results obtained from the flood simulation model and field verification.

[0053] The main technical problem of the prototype is the difficulty and low accuracy of predicting the location of ice jams during the spring flood period due to the need to use a significant amount of data on the landscape of the study area, such as benchmarks, level recorders, important structures, vegetation types, the distance of buildings from the river, drainage systems, slopes, river bends, types of rocks and boulders near rivers, soil types, etc.

[0054] The objective of the present invention is to ensure the possibility of reliably predicting ice jam floods in rivers and increasing the efficiency of using forces and means intended to ensure preventive measures to protect the population and territories from flooding and underflooding, the timely creation and readiness of financial and material resources for the prevention and localization of emergency situations caused by the passage of floods and freshets.

[0055] The technical result of the invention consists in ensuring the reliability of determining the locations of ice jams in a river channel.

[0056] The specified technical result is achieved due to the fact that the method for determining the locations of ice jam formation during the spring flood, characterized by the fact that the water flow is measured upstream and downstream of the section of the river monitored for the ice jam forecast using a system of sensors installed at the beginning and at the end of the river section monitored for the ice jam forecast, wherein if there are watercourses flowing into the monitored section of the river, the sensors are additionally installed at the mouths of these watercourses and then, when calculating the water flow, they are summed up, and if there are other watercourses flowing out of the monitored section of the river and having their origin, the sensors are additionally installed at the source of these watercourses and then, when calculating the water flow, they are subtracted, the water flow is calculated at the beginning Q вхcontrolled section of the river, taking into account the watercourses flowing into this section and the water flow at the end Q вых controlled section of the river taking into account the watercourses flowing out of this section, and then the ratio k = Q is calculated вых / Q вх or the difference ΔQ = Q вых - Q вх and when k < 1 or ΔQ < 0, the occurrence of a traffic jam on the controlled section of the river is predicted.

[0057] In particular, the choice of location for installing sensors is based on the characteristic morphological features of the river and the characteristics of the monitored area.

[0058] In particular, the sensors are made in the form of ultrasonic sensors, electromagnetic speed meters, thermo-hydrometers, hydrometric current meters, hydrodynamic tubes, hydrovanes, mechanical and electronic dynamometers.

[0059] Brief description of drawings.

[0060] Fig. 1 shows a schematic diagram of the placement of sensors on a section of the river.

[0061] Fig. 2 shows a schematic diagram of a device for determining the location of ice jams during the spring flood period.

[0062] Fig. 3 shows examples of graphical display of Q dependencies вх and Q вых from time to graphically display data on water flow in the monitored section of the river.

[0063] The figures indicate: 1 - sensors, 2 - data collection module, 3 - recorder, 4 - ADC, 5 - information processing module.

[0064] Implementation of the invention.

[0065] The essence of the claimed invention is to predict the occurrence of ice jams in a river channel based on water flow.

[0066] Water flow measurement is carried out upstream and downstream of the river section monitored for jam forecasting using existing methods, for example, water flow measurement using ultrasonic (acoustic) velocity meters, the “velocity-area” method, etc.

[0067] The invention is implemented using a system of sensors 1 installed at the beginning and at the end of the river section monitored for predicting blockages.

[0068] The location for installing sensors is determined by the river's characteristic morphological features and the characteristics of the monitored zone. The monitored zone's characteristics include the presence of settlements, industrial and / or agricultural facilities, etc., near the riverbed or floodplain, for which flood prevention and mitigation measures are planned.

[0069] Fig. 1 shows a schematic diagram of the arrangement of sensors 1 on a section of the river, where the monitored section of the river is indicated by dotted lines.

[0070] If there are other rivers, canals, etc. flowing into the controlled area, sensors 1 are additionally installed at the mouths of these watercourses and then they are summed up when calculating the water flow.

[0071] If there are rivers flowing out of the monitored section and other rivers, canals, etc. having their origins, sensors 1 are additionally installed at the source of these watercourses and then they are subtracted when calculating the water flow.

[0072] As can be seen from Fig. 1, in the controlled section of the river there are watercourses flowing into the river in the controlled section and watercourses flowing out of the river in the controlled section.

[0073] To predict a blockage in a controlled section of the river, the water flow at the beginning of Q is calculated вх controlled section of the river, taking into account the watercourses flowing into this section according to the formula:

[0074] ,

[0075] where Q i - water flow at the beginning of the controlled section of the river and in each of the inflowing watercourses between the beginning and the end of the controlled section of the river,

[0076] and water consumption at the end of Q вых controlled section of the river, taking into account the watercourses flowing out of this section according to the formula:

[0077] ,

[0078] where Q j - the water flow at the outlet of the controlled section of the river and in each of the outflowing watercourses between the beginning and the end of the section of the controlled section,

[0079] and then calculate the Q ratio вых / Q вх and if the value of this ratio is less than 1, they give an affirmative assessment of the probability of a blockage occurring on the controlled section of the river.

[0080] In addition, they claim that a blockage occurs on the controlled section of the river with a sharp increase in water flow at the beginning of Q вх controlled section of the river and a simultaneous reduction in water flow at the end of Q вых controlled section of the river.

[0081] A device for determining the location of ice jam formation during the spring flood includes sensors 1 connected via wired, optical, radio or satellite communication channels to the recorder 3 of the information collection module 2 (see Fig. 2), while in the information collection module 2 it is determined which of the sensors 1 are involved in determining the water flow at the beginning of Q вх controlled section of the river, and which of the sensors 1 are involved in determining the water flow at the end of Q вых controlled section of the river.

[0082] Sensors 1 can be analog or digital. In the digital embodiment, sensors 1 are directly connected to the control module via communication channels. In the analog embodiment, sensors 1 are connected to data collection module 2 via communication channels through analog-to-digital converters 4 (ADCs). ADCs 4 can be installed directly next to sensors 1 or in the same housing, and then the information is transmitted to the communication channel in digital form. In the embodiment, ADC 3 is installed next to data collection module 2, the information is transmitted to the communication channel as an analog signal.

[0083] A memory module 5, designed with the ability to accumulate information coming from sensors 1, is connected to the recorder 3 of the data collection module 2.

[0084] Recorder 3 of data collection module 2 is connected via a communication channel to information processing module 6, which is designed with the capability of processing information according to algorithms programmed into it and providing information on the assessment of the forecast of a congestion in the controlled section of the river.

[0085] Information processing module 6 is implemented in the form of a personal computer, laptop, mobile device (tablet, phone, etc.), server, etc.

[0086] The following sensors are used as sensors 1:

[0087] a) the principle of operation of which is based on the use of physical effects created by flowing water:

[0088] - ultrasonic installations that use the effect of the difference in the speed of sound propagation with and against the flow;

[0089] - electromagnetic velocity meters that measure the potential difference that occurs in water when it flows through an electromagnetic circuit;

[0090] - thermo-hydrometers, which use the thermal interaction of the sensitive element and the water jets flowing around it.

[0091] b) devices based on hydrodynamic interaction with the water flow:

[0092] Hydrometric current meters;

[0093] hydrodynamic tubes;

[0094] hydraulic vanes;

[0095] Mechanical and electronic dynamometers.

[0096] To ​​improve the accuracy of measurements in the river and watercourse sections, groups of sensors 1 are installed, and the average values ​​obtained by each of the groups of sensors 1 are used for calculations.

[0097] The reliability of forecasting can be improved by analyzing the divergence of Q dependencies вых (t) and Q вх (t) by graphical or computational methods.

[0098] For the graphical method, Q graphs are plotted вых (t) and Q вх (t) on one coordinate plane (see Fig. 3) at measurement points and conduct a visual analysis.

[0099] For example, if Q вых(t) has smaller peaks than Q вх (t), this means that some of the water is retained and in this case it can be stated that there is a blockage in the controlled section of the river. At Q вых (t) higher than Q вх (t) can be judged by additional water drainage in the controlled area. Sharp jumps in Q вых (t) may indicate a sudden anthropogenic influence (the occurrence of a traffic jam).

[0100] The difference or ratio is determined by calculation (as indicated above). For each point in time, ΔQ = Q is calculated вых - Q вх or k = Q вых / Q вх .

[0101] If ΔQ < 0 or k < 1, then a congestion is said to have occurred.

[0102] If ΔQ ≈ 0 or k ≈ 1, then the section is neutral.

[0103] Below are examples of the invention implementation.

[0104] 1. Stationary automated monitoring system.

[0105] Composition:

[0106] Water flow sensors 1: ultrasonic flow meters;

[0107] Additional sensors: water level, temperature, current speed, ice conditions sensors (e.g. radar or laser);

[0108] communication channels: wired (fiber optic, Ethernet) or wireless (GSM / LoRaWAN / Satellite for remote areas);

[0109] Information acquisition module 2: industrial computer or microcontroller (Raspberry Pi / Arduino with advanced communication modules);

[0110] Memory module 4: SSD drive or cloud storage (if internet available);

[0111] Processing module: a PC installed in the crisis management center with software based on neural network algorithms that analyzes the dynamics of water consumption, ice thickness and weather data;

[0112] alarm: SMS notification to the Ministry of Emergency Situations, light and sound alarm in nearby settlements.

[0113] Application: Large rivers (Lena, Yenisei), where ice jams occur annually.

[0114] 2. Mobile robotic complex

[0115] Composition:

[0116] Sensors 1: Portable hydrological sensors;

[0117] communication channels: radio channel or satellite communication (Messenger);

[0118] Information collection module 2: microcomputer with autonomous power supply (solar panels + batteries);

[0119] Information processing module 5: A PVEM installed in the crisis control center with machine learning algorithm software that predicts congestion based on water flow change data;

[0120] Alert: transmit data to the emergency center in real time.

[0121] Application: Hard-to-reach sections of rivers where it is impossible to install fixed sensors.

[0122] 3. Hybrid system using satellite data.

[0123] composition:

[0124] Sensors 1: Acoustic Doppler for point measurements of water flow;

[0125] Satellite monitoring: remote sensing data (radar images for ice assessment);

[0126] Information processing module 5: integration of ground and satellite data in geographic information system (GIS) with forecast model;

[0127] Alert: Web interface for hydrologists with automatic calculation of ice jam risk.

[0128] Application: Large river basins with developed monitoring infrastructure.

[0129] 4. Inexpensive system for small rivers.

[0130] Composition:

[0131] Sensors 1: hydrological current meters;

[0132] communication channel: GSM modems with data transmission once per hour (to save energy);

[0133] Information processing module 5: threshold-based logic (if Qin - Qout > X m³ / s and the temperature is below 0°C for more than 3 days → alarm);

[0134] Alert: Sound siren in the nearest village + SMS to local authorities.

[0135] Application: small rivers in northern regions where blockages cause flooding.

[0136] 5. Smart blockchain data logging system (innovative version).

[0137] Composition:

[0138] Sensors 1: IoT devices with cryptographic data protection;

[0139] Memory module 5: decentralized storage (blockchain) to protect against counterfeiting;

[0140] Information processing module: smart contracts that automatically trigger evacuation when critical indicators are reached;

[0141] Notification: Smart contracts that transmit a signal to the Smart City system.

[0142] Application: Pilot projects in the framework of digitalization of hydrometeorological services.

[0143] Detailing of the stationary automated system for monitoring congestion on the Lena River (2022-2023).

[0144] Monitored section of the Lena River from Pokrovsk (entrance point, Qin) to Yakutsk (exit point, Qout). Length of the section is ~150 km.

[0145] Problem: Annual ice jams in the Yakutsk region, leading to catastrophic flooding.

[0146] Water consumption (Q) data for 2022-2023

[0147] Date Qвх, m³ / s Qout, m³ / s ΔQ, m³ / s k Ice conditions 15.04.2022 12 500 8 200 +4 300 0,66 The beginning of the traffic jam 20.04.2022 14 800 6 500 +8 300 0,44 Critical congestion 25.04.2022 10 200 9 800 +400 0,96 The traffic jam has been broken 10.04.2023 11 700 7 900 +3 800 0,68 Formation of a traffic jam 18.04.2023 13 500 5 600 +7 900 0,41 Peak of congestion

[0148] Data collection was carried out every 10 minutes at a base station in Yakutsk.

[0149] Data processing was carried out using Python algorithms + LSTM neural network.

[0150] Analysis:

[0151] When ΔQ> 1000 m³ / s or k< 0.9, information processing module 5 issues a warning about the risk of congestion;

[0152] at ΔQ > 7,000 m³ / s or k < 0.5, emergency mode is activated (notification to the Ministry of Emergency Situations);

[0153] When ΔQ increases faster than 500 m³ / s per hour → risk of congestion.

[0154] Decision Making:

[0155] Yellow level (ΔQ> 1,000m³ / s): SMS alert to local authorities;

[0156] red level (ΔQ> 7,000 m³ / s): call the Ministry of Emergency Situations, turn on the sirens in Yakutsk.

[0157] Based on the operation of the declared device implementing the stated method in 2022, the device warned of a blockage 36 hours before the water level rose in Yakutsk. The evacuation was initiated in a timely manner, reducing damage by 30% compared to 2021. In 2023, there was a false alarm on April 5, 2023 (due to a sudden warming), but the critical blockage on April 18, 2023, was accurately predicted.

Claims

1. A method for determining the locations of ice jam formation during the spring flood, characterized by the fact that the water flow is measured upstream and downstream of the section of the river monitored for the ice jam forecast using a system of sensors installed at the beginning and end of the river section monitored for the ice jam forecast, while if there are watercourses flowing into the monitored section of the river, sensors are additionally installed at the mouths of these watercourses and then, when calculating the water flow, they are summed up, and if there are other watercourses flowing out of the monitored section of the river and having their origins, sensors are additionally installed at the source of these watercourses and then, when calculating the water flow, they are subtracted, and the water flow at the beginning is calculated Q вх controlled section of the river, taking into account the watercourses flowing into this section and the water flow at the end Q вых controlled section of the river taking into account the watercourses flowing out of this section, and then the ratio k = Q is calculated вых / Qвх or the difference ΔQ = Q вых - Q вх and when k < 1 or ΔQ < 0, the occurrence of a traffic jam on the controlled section of the river is predicted.

2. The method according to paragraph 1, characterized in that the selection of the location for installing the sensors is carried out based on the characteristic morphological features of the river and the characteristics of the controlled area.

3. Method according to 1, characterized in that the sensors are made in the form of ultrasonic sensors, electromagnetic speed meters, thermo-hydrometers, hydrometric current meters, hydrodynamic tubes, hydrovanes, mechanical and electronic dynamometers.

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