Information processing device and method

Abstract

An estimation unit 13 estimates a survival period, which is the duration from when a user begins using a credit card service until the termination thereof, the survival probability that the user will continue to use the credit card service for each prescribed period, and a unit period profit, which is the profit that the credit card service provider will earn from the user during the prescribed period. A calculation unit 14 calculates customer lifetime value that the credit card service provider will obtain during the time from when the user begins using the credit card service until the termination thereof, using the estimation results from the estimation unit 13, that is, the survival period N, which is the duration from when the user begins using the credit card service until the termination thereof, the survival probability that the user will continue to use the credit card service for each prescribed period, and the unit period profit that the credit card service provider will earn from the user during the prescribed period. A determination unit 15 determines a stage to which each user belongs, on the basis of the customer lifetime value calculated for the user by the calculation unit 14. An execution unit 16 executes measures corresponding to the stage determined for each user by the determination unit.

Description

Information processing device and method

[0001] The present invention relates to a technique for calculating customer lifetime value.

[0002] In so-called subscription services, which are provided to users at a fixed cost per unit period, importance is placed on the profit that the subscription service provider can obtain from the start to the end of use of the subscription service (called customer lifetime value, or LTV).

[0003] For example, Patent Document 1 discloses an LTV planning system that can contribute to the formation, maintenance and expansion of regular purchasers, who are the loyal customer base for mail order and subscription businesses.

[0004] Patent No. 6762483

[0005] Estimating customer lifetime value is relatively easy for services that are provided to users at a fixed cost per unit period. On the other hand, in service fields where the cost per unit period is not fixed, such as credit card services, there are no established methods for estimating customer lifetime value.

[0006] Therefore, an object of the present invention is to calculate a customer lifetime value that a credit card service provider can obtain from the time a user starts using a credit card service until the time the service ends.

[0007] In order to solve the above problem, the present invention provides an information processing device characterized by comprising an estimation unit that estimates a survival period N, which is the period from when a user starts using a credit card service to when it ends, a survival probability that the user will continue using the credit card service for each specified period, and a unit period profit that a credit card service provider will obtain from the user during the specified period, and a calculation unit that calculates a customer lifetime value that a credit card service provider will obtain from the user from when the user starts using the credit card service to when it ends, according to the following formula:

[0008] According to the present invention, it is possible to calculate the customer lifetime value that a credit card service provider can obtain from the start to the end of a user's use of a credit card service.

[0009] 1 is a block diagram showing an example of the hardware configuration of an information processing device 10 according to an embodiment of the present invention; FIG. 2 is a block diagram showing an example of the functional configuration of the information processing device 10; FIG. 3 is a diagram illustrating data stored in the information processing device 10; FIG. 4 is a graph illustrating the contribution of covariates to survival time in a Cox proportional hazards model; and FIG. 5 is a graph illustrating the relationship between survival time and survival probability depending on the presence or absence of an ETC card as a covariate. FIG. 6 is a flowchart showing an example of the operation of the information processing device 10.

[0010] [Embodiment] [Configuration] An embodiment of the present invention will be described below. Fig. 1 is a diagram showing the hardware configuration of an information processing device 10 according to an embodiment of the present invention. In this embodiment, a telecommunications carrier (a so-called carrier) that provides communication services to users provides credit card services to the users. In other words, this telecommunications carrier corresponds to an issuer in the credit card service, and the information processing device 10 is managed by this telecommunications carrier.

[0011] The information processing device 10 is physically configured as a computer including a processor 1001, a memory 1002, a storage 1003, a communication device 1004, and a bus connecting these devices. Each of these devices operates using power supplied from a battery (not shown). In the following description, the term "device" can be interpreted as a circuit, a device, a unit, etc. The hardware configuration of the information processing device 10 may be configured to include one or more of the devices shown in FIG. 1, or may be configured without including some of the devices. Furthermore, the information processing device 10 may be configured by communicating with multiple devices each having a different housing.

[0012] Each function of the information processing device 10 is realized by loading specified software (programs) onto hardware such as the processor 1001 and memory 1002, causing the processor 1001 to perform calculations, control communication via the communication device 1004, and control at least one of reading and writing data in the memory 1002 and storage 1003.

[0013] The processor 1001 controls the entire computer by running, for example, an operating system, and may be configured as a central processing unit (CPU) including an interface with peripheral devices, a control device, an arithmetic unit, a register, etc.

[0014] The processor 1001 reads programs (program codes), software modules, data, etc. from at least one of the storage 1003 and the communication device 1004 into the memory 1002 and executes various processes in accordance with these. The programs used are those that cause a computer to execute at least some of the operations described below. The functional blocks of the information processing device 10 may be implemented by a control program stored in the memory 1002 and running on the processor 1001. Various processes may be executed by one processor 1001, or may be executed simultaneously or sequentially by two or more processors 1001. The processor 1001 may be implemented by one or more chips. The programs may be transmitted to the information processing device 10 via a telecommunications line.

[0015] The memory 1002 is a computer-readable recording medium and may be configured by at least one of, for example, a read-only memory (ROM), an erasable programmable ROM (EPROM), an electrically erasable programmable ROM (EEPROM), a random access memory (RAM), etc. The memory 1002 may also be called a register, a cache, a main memory (primary storage device), etc. The memory 1002 can store executable programs (program codes), software modules, etc. for implementing the method according to this embodiment.

[0016] Storage 1003 is a computer-readable recording medium, and may be composed of at least one of, for example, an optical disk such as a CD-ROM (Compact Disc ROM), a hard disk drive, a flexible disk, a magneto-optical disk (e.g., a compact disk, a digital versatile disk, a Blu-ray (registered trademark) disk), a smart card, a flash memory (e.g., a card, a stick, a key drive), a floppy (registered trademark) disk, a magnetic strip, etc. Storage 1003 may also be called an auxiliary storage device.

[0017] The communication device 1004 is hardware (transmission / reception device) for performing communication between computers, and is also called, for example, a network device, a network controller, a network card, or a communication module.

[0018] Each device, such as the processor 1001 and the memory 1002, is connected by a bus for communicating information. The bus may be configured using a single bus, or may be configured using different buses between each device.

[0019] The information processing device 10 may be configured to include hardware such as a microprocessor, a digital signal processor (DSP), an application specific integrated circuit (ASIC), a programmable logic device (PLD), or a field programmable gate array (FPGA), and some or all of the functional blocks may be realized by the hardware. For example, the processor 1001 may be implemented using at least one of these pieces of hardware.

[0020] 2 is a block diagram showing the functional configuration of the information processing device 10. In the information processing device 10, a processor 1001 reads a program or the like from a storage 1003 into a memory 1002 and executes the program, thereby realizing the functions of an acquisition unit 11, a memory unit 12, an estimation unit 13, a calculation unit 14, a determination unit 15, and an execution unit 16.

[0021] The acquisition unit 11 acquires various information. For example, for each user, the acquisition unit 11 acquires user information related to credit card services and user information related to services other than credit card services. As described above, the telecommunications carrier that manages the information processing device 10 is an issuer of the credit card service and therefore holds user information related to the credit card service. Therefore, the acquisition unit 11 acquires user information related to the credit card service from a predetermined database that stores user information related to the credit card service. In addition, the telecommunications carrier that manages the information processing device 10 holds user information related to communication services (i.e., services other than the credit card service). Therefore, the acquisition unit 11 acquires user information related to communication services from a predetermined database that stores user information related to communication services. As illustrated in FIG. 3 , the storage unit 12 stores the user information acquired by the acquisition unit 11 together with a user ID for identifying each user.

[0022] The estimation unit 13 estimates the survival period, which is the period from when the user starts using the credit card service to when it ends, the survival probability that the user will continue to use the credit card service for each specified period, and the unit period profit, which is the profit that the credit card service provider will obtain from the user during the specified period.

[0023] The estimation unit 13 estimates the survival time and the survival probability using the Cox proportional hazards model. The Cox proportional hazards model is a proportional hazards model that uses multiple covariates, which are various variables related to the user, to examine the influence of each covariate on the survival time. Here, h0 (t) Let x be the baseline hazard function, x be each explanatory variable, and a be the estimated value of each parameter. Then, the survival time and survival probability of each user are estimated based on equation (1).

[0024]

[0025] Here, the estimation unit 13 uses at least one of the following as a covariate in the Cox proportional hazards model: (a) information about credit card services, which is information about whether or not the credit card service used by the user is a credit card service for a family member of a regular member (a so-called family card); (b) information about credit card services, which is information about whether or not the credit card service has a higher membership fee (a so-called gold card or platinum card); or (c) information about credit card services, which is information about whether or not the credit card service is a credit card service that settles the costs of vehicle passage on roads via wireless communication (a so-called ETC card).

[0026] 4 is a graph showing the degree of contribution of each covariate to survival time, which was obtained by the inventors of the present invention by analyzing the correlation between each covariate and survival time using a well-known correlation analysis technique.

[0027] 4, the higher the plot corresponding to each covariate is on the vertical axis (contribution to survival time), the greater the contribution to shortening survival time, and the lower the plot is on the vertical axis (contribution to survival time), the greater the contribution to extending survival time. Analysis by the inventors of the present invention has revealed that covariates that have a high contribution to shortening survival time are when the credit card service used by the user is a credit card service for the family of a full member (a so-called family card) and when the credit card service has a higher membership fee (a so-called gold card or platinum card).

[0028] On the other hand, it was found that a covariate that contributes significantly to a longer survival period is a credit card service (so-called ETC card) that settles the cost of vehicle traffic on roads via wireless communication. Figure 5 shows graph g1, which represents the transition in the survival probability of users who have a contract for a credit card service (ETC card) that settles the cost of vehicle traffic on roads via wireless communication, and graph g2, which represents the transition in the survival probability of users who do not have a contract for the credit card service (ETC card). Figure 5 shows that there is a significant difference in the survival probability of users who have a contract for the credit card service (ETC card) compared to the survival probability of users who do not have a contract for the credit card service (ETC card).

[0029] From these facts, by the estimation unit 13 using at least one of the above (a) to (c) as a covariate, it becomes possible to accurately calculate the user's survival time and survival probability.

[0030] In addition, the estimation unit 13 uses information about services other than credit card services as covariates in the Cox proportional hazards model. In this embodiment, the estimation unit uses user information about communication services provided by a telecommunications carrier as covariates. The user information about communication services includes, for example, whether or not a user has a contract for the communication service and whether or not a user has a contract for a faster communication service (e.g., 5G). The inventors of the present invention analyzed the correlation between each covariate and survival time using well-known correlation analysis techniques and found that having a contract for the communication service and having a contract for a faster communication service (e.g., 5G) contributes to a longer survival time. Therefore, by using the above-mentioned user information about communication services as covariates, the estimation unit 13 can accurately calculate the user's survival time and survival probability.

[0031] The estimation unit 13 also estimates the unit period profit of each user as follows. Because the telecommunications carrier, which manages the information processing device 10, is an issuer of a credit card service, it is possible to calculate the profit earned by the credit card service issuer (provider of the credit card service) per unit period in the past. Therefore, the estimation unit 13 calculates the average value by dividing the profit earned by all users per unit period in the past certain period (e.g., x months or 1 year) by the number of users, and estimates this average value as the unit period profit of each user. The estimation unit 13 also estimates the profit earned by a target user per unit period in the past certain period (e.g., x months or 1 year) as the unit period profit of the target user. The estimation unit 13 also estimates the profit earned by the target user per unit period in the same period of the previous year as the unit period profit of the target user.

[0032] Returning to the explanation of Figure 2, the calculation unit 14 uses the results estimated by the estimation unit 13, i.e., the survival period N, which is the period from when the user starts using the credit card service to when it ends, the survival probability that the user will continue using the credit card service for each specified period, and the unit period profit that the credit card service provider will obtain from the user during the specified period, to calculate the customer lifetime value that the credit card service provider will obtain from the user from when the user starts using the credit card service to when it ends, according to equation (2).

[0033]

[0034] The determination unit 15 determines the stage to which each user belongs based on the customer lifetime value calculated for each user by the calculation unit 14. The stage here refers to a number of stages divided according to the quality of each user from the perspective of the credit service provider, with the higher the stage, the better the user is from the perspective of the credit service provider. For example, when the total number of stages is X, the determination unit 15 may sort all users (number of users S) in descending order of their customer lifetime value and classify them into stages for each S / X (persons). Furthermore, when the total number of stages is X, the determination unit 15 may sort all users (number of users S) in descending order of their customer lifetime value and classify them into stages by dividing the difference between the highest and lowest customer lifetime values ​​by X. In addition, the determination unit 15 may classify the customer into stages based on the magnitude of the customer lifetime value, such as V1 or more but less than V2 (where V1<V2), V2 or more but less than V3 (where V2<V3), V3 or more but less than V4 (where V3<V4), etc.

[0035] The execution unit 16 executes a measure for each user according to the stage determined by the determination unit 15. For example, the execution unit 16 proposes information about covariates in the Cox proportional hazards model that affect users in a first stage to users in a second stage that is lower than the first stage (i.e., the users are less desirable to the credit service provider). For example, if a covariate in the Cox proportional hazards model that affects a user in the first stage is a contract for a credit card service (ETC card) that settles vehicle traffic fees on roads via wireless communication, the execution unit 16 may transmit a message proposing a contract for the credit card service (ETC card) to a communication terminal of a user in the second stage that is lower than the first stage.

[0036] [Operation] Next, the operation of this embodiment will be described. Fig. 6 is a flowchart showing an example of the operation of the information processing device 10. Before the process shown in Fig. 6 starts, the acquisition unit 11 acquires user information of each user and stores it in the storage unit 12 in association with the user ID of the user.

[0037] In Figure 6, the estimation unit 13 estimates the survival period, which is the period from when a user starts using a credit card service to when it ends, the survival probability that the user will continue to use the credit card service for each specified period, and the unit period profit, which is the profit that the credit card service provider will obtain from the user during the specified period (step S11).

[0038] The calculation unit 14 uses the results estimated by the estimation unit 13, i.e., the survival period N, which is the period from when the user starts using the credit card service to when it ends, the survival probability that the user will continue using the credit card service for each specified period, and the unit period profit that the credit card service provider will obtain from the user during the specified period, to calculate the customer lifetime value that the credit card service provider will obtain from the user from when the user starts using the credit card service to when it ends, according to equation (2) (step S12).

[0039] The determination unit 15 determines the stage to which each user belongs, based on the customer lifetime value calculated for each user by the calculation unit 14 (step S13).

[0040] The execution unit 16 executes a measure for each user according to the stage determined by the determination unit (step S14).

[0041] According to the embodiment described above, it is possible to calculate the customer lifetime value that the credit card service provider can obtain from the start to the end of the use of the credit card service by the user.

[0042] Furthermore, according to this embodiment, it is possible to determine the stage to which each user belongs based on the customer lifetime value calculated for each user by the calculation unit 14, and to implement measures according to the determined stage.

[0043] [Modifications] The present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiment. The above-described embodiment may be modified as follows. Furthermore, two or more of the following modifications may be combined and implemented.

[0044] The block diagrams used to explain the above embodiments show functional blocks. These functional blocks (components) are realized by any combination of at least one of hardware and software. Furthermore, the method for realizing each functional block is not particularly limited. That is, each functional block may be realized using a single device that is physically or logically coupled, or may be realized using two or more physically or logically separated devices that are directly or indirectly connected (e.g., wired, wireless, etc.) and these multiple devices. The functional block may also be realized by combining software with the single device or multiple devices.

[0045] Functions include, but are not limited to, judgment, determination, judgment, calculation, computation, processing, derivation, investigation, search, confirmation, reception, transmission, output, access, resolution, selection, selection, establishment, comparison, assumption, expectation, consideration, broadcasting, notifying, communicating, forwarding, configuring, reconfiguring, allocating, mapping, and assignment. For example, a functional block (component) that performs transmission is called a transmitting unit or transmitter. As mentioned above, there are no particular limitations on how these functions are implemented.

[0046] For example, the information processing device 10 according to an embodiment of the present disclosure may function as a computer that performs the processing of the present disclosure.

[0047] Each aspect / embodiment described in the present disclosure may be applied to at least one of systems using LTE (Long Term Evolution), LTE-Advanced (LTE-A), SUPER 3G, IMT-Advanced, 4G (4th generation mobile communication system), 5G (5th generation mobile communication system), FRA (Future Radio Access), NR (New Radio), W-CDMA (registered trademark), GSM (registered trademark), CDMA2000, UMB (Ultra Mobile Broadband), IEEE 802.11 (Wi-Fi (registered trademark)), IEEE 802.16 (WiMAX (registered trademark)), IEEE 802.20, UWB (Ultra-Wide Band), Bluetooth (registered trademark), or other suitable systems, and next-generation systems extended based on these. Furthermore, a combination of multiple systems (e.g., a combination of at least one of LTE and LTE-A with 5G, etc.) may also be applied.

[0048] The present invention may also be an information processing method characterized by including an estimation step of estimating a survival period N, which is the period from when a user starts using a credit card service to when it ends, a survival probability that the user will continue using the credit card service for each predetermined period, and a unit period profit that the credit card service provider will obtain from the user during the predetermined period, and a calculation step of calculating, in accordance with the above formula (2), the customer lifetime value that the credit card service provider will obtain from the user from when the user starts using the credit card service to when it ends. The processing procedures, sequences, flowcharts, etc. of each aspect / embodiment described in this disclosure may be rearranged as long as there is no contradiction. For example, the methods described in this disclosure present various step elements using an exemplary order and are not limited to the specific order presented.

[0049] Input and output information may be stored in a specific location (for example, memory) or may be managed using a management table. Input and output information may be overwritten, updated, or added to. Output information may be deleted. Input information may be sent to another device.

[0050] The determination may be made based on a value represented by one bit (0 or 1), a Boolean value (true or false), or a numerical comparison (e.g., comparison with a predetermined value).

[0051] Although the present disclosure has been described in detail above, it is clear to those skilled in the art that the present disclosure is not limited to the embodiments described herein. The present disclosure can be implemented in modified and altered forms without departing from the spirit and scope of the present disclosure as defined by the claims. Therefore, the description of the present disclosure is intended to be illustrative and does not have any limiting meaning on the present disclosure.

[0052] Software, whether referred to as software, firmware, middleware, microcode, hardware description language, or otherwise, should be construed broadly to mean instructions, instruction sets, code, code segments, program code, programs, subprograms, software modules, applications, software applications, software packages, routines, subroutines, objects, executable files, threads of execution, procedures, functions, etc. Additionally, software, instructions, information, etc. may be transmitted or received over a transmission medium. For example, if software is transmitted from a website, server, or other remote source using wired technologies (such as coaxial cable, fiber optic cable, twisted pair, Digital Subscriber Line (DSL)), and / or wireless technologies (such as infrared, microwave), then such wired and / or wireless technologies are included within the definition of a transmission medium.

[0053] The information, signals, etc. described in this disclosure may be represented using any of a variety of different technologies. For example, data, instructions, commands, information, signals, bits, symbols, chips, etc. that may be referred to throughout the above description may be represented by voltage, current, electromagnetic waves, magnetic fields or magnetic particles, optical fields or photons, or any combination thereof. Note that terms described in this disclosure and terms necessary for understanding this disclosure may be replaced with terms having the same or similar meanings.

[0054] Furthermore, the information, parameters, etc. described in this disclosure may be expressed using absolute values, may be expressed using relative values ​​from a predetermined value, or may be expressed using other corresponding information.

[0055] As used in this disclosure, the phrase "based on" does not mean "based only on," unless expressly stated otherwise. In other words, the phrase "based on" means both "based only on" and "based at least on."

[0056] As used in this disclosure, any reference to an element using a designation such as "first," "second," etc. does not generally limit the quantity or order of those elements. These designations may be used in this disclosure as a convenient method of distinguishing between two or more elements. Thus, a reference to a first and a second element does not imply that only two elements may be employed or that the first element must in some way precede the second element.

[0057] The "unit" in the configuration of each of the above devices may be replaced with "means," "circuit," "device," etc.

[0058] When the terms "include," "including," and variations thereof are used in this disclosure, these terms are intended to be inclusive, similar to the term "comprising." Furthermore, when the term "or" is used in this disclosure, it is not intended to be an exclusive or.

[0059] In this disclosure, where articles are added by translation, such as a, an, and the in English, the disclosure may include that the nouns following these articles are in the plural form.

[0060] In the present disclosure, the term "A and B are different" may mean "A and B are different from each other." The term may also mean "A and B are each different from C." Terms such as "separate" and "coupled" may also be interpreted in the same way as "different."

[0061] 10: Information processing device, 11: Acquisition unit, 12: Memory unit, 13: Estimation unit, 14: Calculation unit, 15: Determination unit, 16: Execution unit, 1001: Processor, 1002: Memory, 1003: Storage, 1004: Communication device.

Claims

1. An information processing device comprising: an estimation unit that estimates a survival period N, which is the period from when a user starts using a credit card service until when it ends, the survival probability that the user will continue using the credit card service for each specified period, and the unit period profit that the credit card service provider will obtain from the user during the specified period; and a calculation unit that calculates the customer lifetime value that the credit card service provider will obtain from the user from when the user starts using the credit card service until it ends, according to the following formula:

2. The information processing device according to claim 1, wherein the estimation unit estimates the survival time and survival probability using a Cox proportional hazards model.

3. The information processing device described in claim 1, characterized in that the estimation unit uses at least one of the following information regarding credit card services as a covariate in the Cox proportional hazards model: information regarding whether the credit card service used by the user is a credit card service for the family of a regular member, whether it is a credit card service with a higher membership fee, or whether it is a credit card service that settles the cost of vehicle passage on roads via wireless communication.

4. The information processing device according to claim 1, wherein the estimation unit uses information on services other than credit card services as covariates in the Cox proportional hazards model.

5. An information processing device according to claim 4, characterized in that the estimation unit uses information relating to the communication services provided to the user by the communication carrier when the issuer of the credit card service is a communication carrier that provides communication services to the user.

6. The information processing device according to claim 1, further comprising a determination unit that determines the stage to which each user belongs, based on the customer lifetime value calculated for each user by the calculation unit.

7. The information processing apparatus according to claim 6, further comprising an execution unit for executing a measure according to the stage determined by the determination unit for each user.

8. The information processing device described in claim 7, characterized in that when the estimation unit estimates survival time and survival probability using the Cox proportional hazards model, the execution unit proposes information regarding covariates that affect users belonging to a first stage to users belonging to a second stage lower than the first stage.

9. An information processing method characterized by comprising an estimation step of estimating a survival period N, which is the period from when a user starts using a credit card service to when it ends, the survival probability that the user will continue using the credit card service for each specified period, and the unit period profit that the credit card service provider will obtain from the user during the specified period; and a calculation step of calculating the customer lifetime value that the credit card service provider will obtain from the user from when the user starts using the credit card service to when it ends, according to the following formula:

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