Pando-RAD iot-based earthquake prediction network

Abstract

The present disclosure relates to an earthquake prediction network design that is formed by the coordinated operation of an IoT (I)-based radon measurement / prediction network, in which the radon concentrations in outdoor environments and / or in soil gas near active fault lines are continuously monitored from a central location and in which the next radon level can be automatically predicted before measurement by means of the prediction algorithms used, together with seismographs that measure ground movements, and that comprises an early warning system in which the authorities (Y) are automatically informed in cases where earthquake risk is detected.

Description

[0001] PANDO-RAD loT-BASED EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION NETWORK

[0002] TECHNICAL FIELD

[0003] The present disclosure relates to a system intended to estimate potential earthquake risks by performing continuous radon measurements through a remotely monitorable system and based on anomalies in radon gas.

[0004] PRIOR ART

[0005] In Turkiye, radon measurements are carried out by the Turkish Energy, Nuclear and Mineral Research Agency (TENMAK), and a system of Hungarian origin is used in this process. This system is based on a passive measurement method for detecting radon gas levels. However, as passive measurement methods cannot provide data on an hourly basis, such measurements cannot be used in earthquake prediction. In addition to this, various academic studies carried out by universities and research centres have employed both active and passive measurement methods. Despite this, technologies capable of continuously monitoring radon gas online and in real time, predicting the next measurement, and providing early warnings for earthquakes to relevant units when anomalies are detected, have not yet been developed. Due to Turkiye being located on an active earthquake belt, there are several institutions conducting earthquake research and preparedness activities. Among these institutions are Bogazigi University Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KRDAE), which is a leading entity in earthquake monitoring, seismological research and education, and the Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD). These institutions carry out various projects and training programmes to develop strategies for reducing earthquake risk, raise public awareness and conduct effective interventions before and after disasters. The seismic waves that occur during an earthquake are classified as P and S waves. Currently used lOS / Android-based earthquake warning applications detect P waves (at the moment seismic waves are felt) and send warnings to users before S waves reach the region. Some applications, on the other hand, question whether users feel the earthquake and detect and report regional earthquakes.

[0006] Nuclear Physics forms the scientific basis of the system by explaining the radioactive decay processes of radon gas and its interaction with environmental conditions. Electrical-Electronics Engineering ensures the design of radon sensors and data collection devices and the implementation of data transmission. Automation Technologies support the uninterrupted and unmanned operation of systems, enabling real-time analysis and the development of automatic warning mechanisms.

[0007] Earthquake and Geophysical Research contribute to earthquake predictions by monitoring the movements of fault lines and the accumulation of stress in the earth’s crust. Environmental Engineering and Radiation Physics are technical fields that address the radioactive decay processes of radon gas, its environmental impacts and its monitoring. The Information Technology and Communication Industry plays an important role in enabling remote monitoring of data, big data analytics and the functionality of real-time warning systems. In Turkiye, the e-QUAKE-SMART system developed by the METU Technopark Informatics Innovation Centre has the function of detecting seismic movements when an earthquake occurs and warning building occupants through devices placed in buildings. Similarly, the foreign company SeismicAI has developed a system that provides early warnings by using seismic data. Both technologies aim to raise awareness and enhance safety in early intervention processes when seismic waves are detected. However, current systems do not make earthquake predictions based on radon gas levels.

[0008] Before the present disclosure, within the scope of our earlier patent application numbered 2021 / 012804, a web-based and wireless online radon measurement network was developed for the first time in Turkiye. This system was intended to monitor in real time the radiation levels caused by radon gas in indoor environments and to inform users about the radiation levels to which they were exposed. However, this system does not provide any function for predicting radon gas levels or correlating anomalies in radon levels with earthquakes. Current systems generally make predictions based only on seismic data or historical data. This leads to pre-earthquake warnings often being unsuccessful or delayed. For this reason, the present invention aims to eliminate this deficiency in existing earthquake prediction systems and introduce an innovative approach.

[0009] THE AIM OF THE INVENTION

[0010] The main aim of the invention is to generate early warnings against potential earthquake risks by analysing radon data through the PANDO-RAD loT-Based Earthquake Prediction Network, predicting the next radon level, and detecting sudden changes in real time.

[0011] The aim of the invention is to monitor and analyse anomalies in radon gas emissions along fault lines.

[0012] Another aim of the invention is to enhance the effectiveness of early warning systems for earthquake predictions by integrating the processes of monitoring and predicting radon gas concentrations through an interdisciplinary approach.

[0013] Another aim of the invention is to provide early warnings to the relevant institutions in cases where earthquake risk is detected.

[0014] BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0015] The PANDO-RAD system, following its installation, offers continuous monitoring of radon levels in soil gas or open areas, prediction capabilities, and instant access to measurement data. With its ability to integrate with seismographs located near active fault lines through multiple points, it is capable of anticipating / estimating radon levels and using these data for earthquake prediction. With these features, the system will be able to send early warnings to institutions such as AFAD in the field of disaster and emergency management. In addition, it will enable information transfer to relevant institutions such as the Republic of Turkiye Ministry of Interior 112 Emergency Call Centre, the Ministry of Environment, Urbanisation and Climate Change, and AKUT. Through early warnings, the intervention capability of disaster management units regarding natural disasters will be enhanced, contributing to the prevention of loss of life and property damage. Moreover, allowing preventive measures such as cutting off infrastructure services including electricity, natural gas and water through the system’s automatic control mechanisms provides a strategic advantage in large-scale disaster management.

[0016] This method, which possesses innovative features, is not limited to disaster management alone but may also be used for scientific research on the radon- earthquake relationship. The PANDO-RAD system architecture additionally has the potential to be integrated into other sectors that require advanced technological solutions such as area monitoring, environmental monitoring and security applications.

[0017] Radon is a colourless, odourless and tasteless radioactive gas that cannot be detected by human senses and can only be detected with specialised devices. Approximately 70% of this chemically inert gas originates from soil and rock formations. Radon gas emerging from the soil surface can be continuously monitored with systems installed near active fault lines. Research shows that radon levels exhibit a significant increase before earthquakes and a sudden drop on the day of the earthquake. These changes are thought to be caused by fractures occurring in the earth’s crust, which increase radon release through fault lines and cracks. This reveals the impact of crustal fractures on radon emissions and supports the use of this gas as a potential precursor indicator in seismic predictions. In particular, the fact that changes in radon levels observed 1 to 4 days before earthquakes become more pronounced indicates that radon gas may be an important indicator for early warning systems. In this context, the loT-based earthquake prediction network “PANDO-RAD,” which has been developed, is an innovative solution that continuously monitors changes in radon gas and predicts the next radon level. The term “PANDO” used in the system derives from Latin, meaning “spread out or to make known publicly,” while “RAD” represents radon. Earthquakes are classified by Bogazigi University Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KRDAE) using different colour codes according to their magnitudes. Based on this colour coding, the PANDO-RAD system placed near active fault lines is designed to continuously monitor radon gas levels and predict the next radon concentration. When the system detects abnormal behaviour in radon gas, it has been developed to provide earthquake prediction and early warning to authorised institutions responsible for disaster management, especially AFAD. This system assists in planning pre-earthquake measures in a more informed and effective manner while also providing early warnings based on risk analysis. In this way, authorised institutions can rapidly intervene in processes such as evacuation, infrastructure shutdowns and crisis management.

[0018] In addition, the data obtained contribute to disaster management, resource planning (infrastructure services such as electricity, natural gas and water), public awareness and preparedness processes. In this manner, a decision-making infrastructure aiming to minimise loss of life and property through pre-earthquake precautionary measures may be established. The radon prediction approach proposed for the PANDO-RAD system has already been tested by the inventors by measuring atmospheric radon levels every hour continuously for more than 6 months at 3 different measurement points. It has been demonstrated that there is a high level of agreement, approximately 95%, between actual radon measurements and the predictions / estimations made one hour in advance from these measurements, and that the radon prediction algorithm of the invention operates successfully. Thus, in addition to the potential use of the invention in practical earthquake prediction applications, it is considered that it will make a substantial contribution to local studies aimed at understanding the relationship between radon gas and seismic activities.

[0019] BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE FIGURES

[0020] In Figure 1 , the general management diagram of the invention is provided.

[0021] DESCRIPTION OF REFERENCES IN THE FIGURES

[0022] 1 . Radon detector

[0023] 2. Mini computer

[0024] 3. Modem

[0025] 4. Mobile phone

[0026] 5. Base station

[0027] 6. Internet environment

[0028] 7. Earthquake control centre 8. Control unit

[0029] B. Bluetooth

[0030] 11 . First station

[0031] 12. Second station

[0032] IN. Nthstation

[0033] S. Seismograph

[0034] G. Firewall

[0035] I. loT

[0036] Y. Authorities

[0037] W. Web application

[0038] DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0039] In this detailed description, the subject matter of the invention is explained with examples intended to facilitate a better understanding of the proposed system and without creating any limiting effect.

[0040] The invention described in detail below relates to an loT (l)-based earthquake prediction network devised to track seismic movements occurring or expected to occur along fault lines by monitoring radon gas measurements and to transmit information to the authorised authorities.

[0041] The tasks of the components that constitute the invention named the PANDO-RAD loT (l)-based radon prediction network are provided in detail below.

[0042] • A radon detector (1 ) that measures the radon concentration in the environment in which the network is located within the scope of loT (I),

[0043] • A mini computer (2) connected to the radon detector (1 ) via Bluetooth (B) and programmed with Python software;

[0044] • An internet environment (6) that, through the Microsoft SQL / MySQL database it contains, records and stores the values received from the mini computer (2);

[0045] • A control unit (8) that enables the data in the internet environment (6) to be monitored instantly with the relevant web applications (W) within the loT (I) concept and that can wirelessly transmit radon data to the authorities (Y) when necessary; • A firewall (G) that prevents external interference with the control unit (8);

[0046] • Data transceiver units such as a modem (3), mobile phone (4) and base station (5) that ensure the wireless transmission of radon data for different usage conditions;

[0047] • An early warning mechanism that sends warnings from the control centre (8) to all authorities (Y) regarding potential earthquake risk when the radon level in the environment exceeds a predetermined threshold level;

[0048] • A seismograph (S) that works in coordination with the relevant radon detector (1 ) for each station (11 , i2...IN), continuously records ground vibrations, determines the magnitude, duration, epicentre and time of these vibrations, and transmits these data to the earthquake control centre (7).

[0049] The mini computer (2) included within the scope of the invention comprises wired and wireless internet connectivity, a Raspbian operating system installed on a micro SD card, an HDMI display connection and USB connections. The radon detector (1 ) operates with a voltage of 3 V. The mini computer (2) has software that labels the data received from the radon detector (1 ) with information such as the data time, the location from which the data were obtained and the detector identity.

[0050] The mini computer (2) meets its power requirement through a 5 V adapter and operates with various station (11 , I2, ... ,iN) configurations that support the wireless transmission of radon data. The structure referred to as Station 1 (11 ) enables the transmission of data from the mini computer (2) via the modem (3). In regions without internet access, a SIM module is integrated into the mini computer (2) within the scope of Station 2 (I2), allowing data transfer via the mobile phone (4). In addition to this, in challenging geographical conditions such as mountainous terrain or caves where modem (3) and mobile phone (4) connections are not possible, communication can be established through an antenna module (for example RFID or LoRa) in the units referred to as Station N (IN). All these configurations form an integrated network system that enables radon data to be reliably transmitted to the internet environment (6).

[0051] The internet environment (6) has been created using C#-based ASP.NET, CORE-MVC, Vue.js and Laravel software, and enables the storage, recording, conversion into radon prediction graphs and processing of radon data. The radon measurements received from the detectors (1 ) in the first, second and Nth stations (11 , I2 and IN) shown in Figure 1 are monitored online in the internet environment (6), and by predicting the next radon levels, when any anomaly is detected in radon behaviour, the earthquake prediction warnings are sent to the authorities (Y) through a control centre (8) where the information belonging to the stations (11 , l2,...,lN) can be collectively monitored and automatically evaluated.

[0052] Furthermore, by jointly evaluating the data recorded by the seismographs (S) located at the stations (11 , l2,...,lN) and transmitted to the earthquake control centre (7), together with the radon measurement data recorded by the detectors (1) at these stations (11 , l2,...,lN) and sent to the control centre (8), a radon-earthquake relationship specific to the location of each fault line can be formulated. For this purpose, additional measurement systems connected to the radon measurement network (systems in the form of 1 -B-2-3, 1 -B-2-4 or 1 -B-2-5) may also be used in the vicinity of a station (11 , I2...IN) where PANDO-RAD is installed.

Claims

CLAIMS1. A PANDO-RAD loT (l)-based radon prediction network, in which the radon concentrations in outdoor environments and / or in soil gas are continuously monitored from a central location and which, by means of the prediction algorithms used, is capable of automatically predicting the next radon level before measurement and operates in coordination with elements that measure ground movements, characterized by comprising;• a radon detector (1 ) that measures, within the scope of loT (I), the radon concentration in the environment where the network is located,• a mini computer (2) connected to the radon detector (1 ) via Bluetooth (B) and programmed with Python software,• an internet environment (6) which, through the Microsoft SQL / MySQL database it contains, records and stores the values received from the mini computer (2),• a control unit (8) that enables the data in the internet environment (6) to be monitored instantly with the web applications (W) within the loT (I) concept and that wirelessly transmits radon data to authorities (Y) when a predefined threshold radon level is exceeded,• data transceivers that ensure the wireless transmission of radon data, an early warning mechanism that sends warnings from the control centre (8) to all authorities (Y) regarding potential earthquake risk when the radon level in the environment exceeds a predetermined threshold level,• a seismograph (S) that works in coordination with the relevant radon detector (1 ) for each station (11 , I2...IN), continuously records ground vibrations and determines the magnitude, duration, epicentre and time of these vibrations and transmits these data to the earthquake control centre (7).

2. The PANDO-RAD loT (l)-based radon prediction network according to Claim 1 characterized by comprising; a firewall (G) that prevents external interference with the control unit (8).

3. The PANDO-RAD loT (l)-based radon prediction network according to any one of the preceding claims wherein; data transceivers are the modem (3), and / or the mobile phone (4), and / or the base station (5).

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