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Risk Analysis Calculation Method for Real-time Flood Control Operation of Reservoirs Considering Error Correlation

A technology of flood control scheduling and calculation method, applied in the direction of calculation, complex mathematical operation, data processing application, etc., can solve the problems of low calculation efficiency, insufficient versatility, not considering the influence of the correlation of inbound flow, etc., and achieves the analytical calculation method. Simple, versatile, and easy-to-achieve effects

Active Publication Date: 2019-03-12
HOHAI UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

[0003] At present, the existing risk assessment methods for real-time flood control of reservoirs mainly have the following deficiencies: (1) The influence of the correlation of inflow flow forecast errors on the risk of real-time flood control of reservoirs is not considered; (2) The random simulation method is used to calculate the real-time flood control Scheduling risk, low calculation efficiency, insufficient versatility, need to re-model for different reservoirs

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  • Risk Analysis Calculation Method for Real-time Flood Control Operation of Reservoirs Considering Error Correlation
  • Risk Analysis Calculation Method for Real-time Flood Control Operation of Reservoirs Considering Error Correlation
  • Risk Analysis Calculation Method for Real-time Flood Control Operation of Reservoirs Considering Error Correlation

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Embodiment Construction

[0034] In order to describe the technical solution disclosed in the present invention in detail, further elaboration will be made below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments.

[0035] The present invention comprehensively considers the stochastic process of reservoir inflow flow, the correlation coefficient of inflow flow forecast error, the stochastic process of reservoir outflow flow, the stochastic process of reservoir water storage and the stochastic process of reservoir water level, establishes a stochastic differential equation for flood regulation calculation of the reservoir, and According to the stochastic differential equation of reservoir flood control calculation, the analytical calculation formulas of the real-time flood control dispatch risk of the reservoir at each time and the total risk of the entire flood process are solved. According to the analytical calculation formula, the real-time flood control dispatch risk of the reservo...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a reservoir real-time flood control dispatching risk analytic calculating method considering error correlation. The method comprises the following steps of 1, putting forward amathematical expression of an indeterminate factor; 2, building a reservoir flood routing stochastic differential equation, and analyzing the mea value and variance of reservoir errors at each moment; 3, building a reservoir real-time flood control dispatching risk model, and analyzing the real-time flood control dispatching risk of the reservoir at each moment; 4, calculating the real-time floodcontrol dispatching risk of the reservoir. The influence of the reservoir inflow prediction error correlation coefficient on the reservoir real-time flood control dispatching risk is considered, thereservoir real-time flood control dispatching risk and whole flood process total risk analysis calculation formula can be obtained, and the method is high in calculation efficiency and easy to implement, and has the high universality.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to risk assessment of real-time flood control dispatching of reservoirs, and in particular relates to a risk analysis and calculation method for real-time flood control dispatching of reservoirs considering error correlation. Background technique [0002] Reservoir real-time flood control scheduling is one of the important technical means for flood control and disaster reduction in the basin, and it can improve the efficiency of flood control projects with a small investment. However, in the process of real-time flood control scheduling of the reservoir, there are uncertain factors, including the forecast error of the reservoir inflow flow, the uncertainty of the reservoir outflow flow, and the uncertainty of the storage capacity of the reservoir. The uncertainty of water level brings risks to flood control decision-making. Therefore, the risk assessment of reservoir real-time flood control dispatching has important academic sign...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F17/13G06Q10/06
CPCG06F17/13G06Q10/0635Y02A10/40
Inventor 陈娟钟平安张宇付吉斯刘为峰严梦佳
Owner HOHAI UNIV
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