The invention relates to the technical field of carbon emission prediction and early warning, and provides a multi-scale neural distribution prediction and hierarchical migration early warning method, which comprises the following steps: acquiring historical carbon emission data, respectively inputting a historical sequence and a to-be-predicted sequence into an
energy consumption stochastic differential equation model and a carbon factor
stochastic differential equation model, generating a multi-scale carbon emission path sample set through an independent random disturbance term; calculating a path-level suitability
score of each path sample based on the standard-exceeding risk integral, the first standard-exceeding moment and the path fluctuation variance; layering the calibration
data set into a plurality of working condition
layers according to working condition labels, sharing distribution shape parameters among the working condition
layers through a hierarchical Bayesian method, and regularizing quantiles of
small sample working condition
layers to obtain an early warning threshold value of each working condition layer; and selecting a corresponding early warning threshold value according to the current working condition
label to compare and trigger early warning. According to the method, the accuracy of carbon emission distribution prediction and the robustness of an
early warning system are improved, and the problem that the early warning threshold value is unstable under the
small sample working condition is relieved.