The invention discloses a land use change modeling method and system implemented in combination with spatial filtering and relates to the field of geographical information sciences. The method focuses on eliminating the spatial autocorrelation influence of data in the process of land use change modeling, and comprises the following steps: collecting original data, and preprocessing the original data so as to generate a data set sequence; determining the optimum distance of spatial filtering by using a variation function, and then splitting variable factors by using a Getis principle based a spatial filtering method; constructing a logistic regression model according to a filtered sample, and assessing the model by using methods such as fitting accuracies and ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curves; and finally, providing a Markov chain and a customized change pattern for forecasting the trend of land use change. According to the invention, based on a statistics mathematical model, a spatial filtering mode is adopted for making up the shortcomings and defects of the mathematical model in geo-spatial calculation, so that through the combination of the two, the fitting accuracy of the model is improved, and the model is more conform to the time and space characteristics of land use change.