This invention discloses a drought early warning method based on
energy flux, causal
relationship analysis, and
machine learning. The method includes the following steps: S1, acquiring
energy flux and drought indicators, determining the optimal
lag time through
causal reasoning, and constructing a multi-order
lag feature set; S2, establishing a tree model, using regression / kernel methods and a
time series model candidate set, optimizing hyperparameters through
particle swarm optimization, integrating two
layers in a stacked manner, adaptively optimizing the performance of comprehensive regression and
event recognition, and outputting a predicted sequence; S3, setting multi-level early warning rules according to drought thresholds, mapping drought levels, and evaluating effectiveness through
statistical precision and recall; S4, calculating contribution using an additive feature attribution
algorithm, identifying nonlinear thresholds to form
sensitivity analysis, and improving
interpretability. This invention achieves a 7-11 month early warning prediction of drought based on
energy flux, with a drought early warning
recall rate of 66.67%-75.86%, significantly improving the accuracy and
interpretability of drought early warning.