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563 results about "Reliability model" patented technology

Wind and photovoltaic complementary power generation system reliability evaluation method based on Copula theory

The invention discloses a wind and photovoltaic complementary power generation system reliability evaluation method based on a Copula theory. The method comprises the following steps of: (1) determining the power probability distribution of a wind power station and a photovoltaic plant; (2) respectively performing integral operation on the power probability distribution fWT(P1) and fPV(P2) of thewind power station and the photovoltaic plant, and calculating the accumulative power probability distribution of the wind power station and the photovoltaic plant; (3) calculating Kendall rank correlation coefficients of the power of the wind power station and the photovoltaic plant; (4) calculating a correlation parameter theta of a Frank Copula function; (5) forming a simultaneous equation through a formula (2) and a formula (4) to obtain the joint probability density of the random variables P1 and P2; and (6) acquiring the accumulative probability distribution of the wind and photovoltaiccomplementary power station through integral operation according to a joint probability density function of the power of the wind power station and the photovoltaic plant, forming an off-the-line table of the power of the wind and photovoltaic complementary power station through the accumulative power, and establishing a reliability model of the wind and photovoltaic complementary power station. According to the method, the reliability of the wind and photovoltaic complementary power generation system can be accurately evaluated.
Owner:CEEC JIANGSU ELECTRIC POWER DESIGN INST +1

Time-dependent fatigue reliability analysis method based on bilinear cumulative damage

InactiveCN107103140AReflect time-varying characteristicsAchieving Reliability PredictionGeometric CADDesign optimisation/simulationFatigue loadingPhysical model
The invention discloses a time-dependent fatigue reliability analysis method based on bilinear cumulative damage. The method includes the steps that 1, the probability distribution type and statistical characteristic parameter of fatigue life data are determined; 2, the appropriate reference life is selected, and a bilinear cumulative damage physical model is built; 3, according to the bilinear cumulative damage physical model, a probability cumulative damage model is built; 4, according to the stress-strength interference theory, a time-dependent fatigue reliability model is built; 5, a reliability curve is drawn and compared with an experimental result; the characteristics of a crack initiation stage and a crack propagation stage in the fatigue failure process and the randomness in the damage accumulation process are comprehensively considered, the bilinear damage theory serves as a modeling base, the probability cumulative damage model is built, through the combination with the stress-strength interference theory, the time-dependent fatigue reliability model based on cumulative damage and critical damage is built, the time-varying characteristics of fatigue loading and the dynamic behavior of the damage accumulation process are reflected, and the reliability prediction in the whole fatigue life cycle is achieved.
Owner:UNIV OF ELECTRONICS SCI & TECH OF CHINA

Motorized spindle accelerated life testing time design method

The invention belongs to the technical field of numerical control machine tool and relates to a motorized spindle accelerated life testing time design method. The method includes the steps that firstly, product load data and fault information are collected; secondly, a load distribution model is established; thirdly, a program load spectrum is designed; fourthly, a product service life estimated formula is determined on the basis of the Miner fatigue accumulation damage theory, and an accelerated life testing accelerating factor model is built on the basis of the formula; fifthly, based on the fault information, a first fault time reliability mode is built through model hypothesis, parameter estimation and hypothesis testing; sixthly, testing time design is conducted on the basis of the first fault time, the first fault time corresponding to an acceptable reliability degree serves as a standard, and a relational model of motorized spindle testing time and the sample capacity is established; seventhly, an accelerating factor is considered for testing time design, and the creditability of the testing time design is verified. The relational model of the testing time and the sample capacity is considered, the accelerating factor model is established on the basis of the modification Miner theory, the modeling accuracy is improved, and the method better conforms to actual conditions.
Owner:JILIN UNIV

Reliability assessment method for secondary system of intelligent substation

The invention provides a reliability assessment method for a secondary system of an intelligent substation, and belongs to the field of power information automation. The assessment method divides the intelligent substation system into a communication subsystem, a control subsystem, a protection subsystem and a station control layer subsystem, obtains reliable parameters of each subsystem with the aid of the mean time to fail and the mean time to repair parameters of devices by an availability block diagram, finds out weak links of the secondary system, and improves the reliability of the secondary system of the intelligent substation, thereby achieving the purpose of increasing the quality of power supply at last, and providing an easily accepted and implemented reliability assessment method of the secondary system for the reliability assessment of the secondary system of the intelligent substation. By introducing a notion of reliability model, carrying out quantitative calculation and evaluation, and conducting sequence according to the reliability indexes and the degrees of risk, the reliability and availability of the whole intelligent substation system are improved. The assessment method of the invention can be widely applied in the system design, operation scheduling or device management fields of intelligent substation.
Owner:SHANGHAI MUNICIPAL ELECTRIC POWER CO +1

Complex mechanism dynamic cascading reliability modeling method based on colored stochastic Petri network

ActiveCN104298843ADescribe dynamic cascading phenomenaComprehensive descriptionSpecial data processing applicationsNODALColor function
The invention discloses a complex mechanism dynamic cascading reliability modeling method based on a colored stochastic Petri network. The method comprises the following five steps that firstly, a system is layered from top to bottom according to the structure, functions and operational profile of the system, the upper layer of the system is obtained by means of functional layer division, and the lower layer of the system is obtained by means of structural layer division; secondly, the fault modes and the influences of all the layers of the system are analyzed through an FMEA method, a logic relation between correlated faults is given, fault criteria influencing the functions are determined, and the hierarchy and transmissibility of the faults of the system are clarified; thirdly, a CSPN reliability submodel of each layer is established according to the logic relation between the faults and the functions; fourthly, the CSPN submodels of all the layers are connected organically by means of transition substitution to establish an overall reliability model of the system; fifthly, a color function, a node function, an arc expression function and a defense function of each layer are determined, and the reliability of the system is analyzed and evaluated by means of Monte Carlo simulation.
Owner:BEIHANG UNIV

Fire fighting system reliability analysis and calculation method

InactiveCN102419799AObjective analysisFailure rate to be analyzedSpecial data processing applicationsTask analysisMean time to repair
The invention belongs to application of a reliability analysis technology to the technical field of fire engineering, and ensures that the using reliability of a fire fighting system is accurately analyzed and calculated. A fire fighting system reliability analysis and calculation method comprises the following steps of: establishing a fire fighting system reliability model and determining reliability units according to the working principle of the fire fighting system, forming a GO chart for establishing the fire fighting system according to the boundary of the fire fighting system and success criteria, and determining a fault judgment method for the reliability units of the fire fighting system according to task analysis of the system and fire code requirements; and substituting fault statistical data of the reliability units of the fire fighting system into a GO model of the fire fighting system to calculate corresponding reliability indexes of the fire fighting system, such as a fault rate, average maintenance time, availability and the like. By the method, the reliability of the fire fighting system can be objectively qualitatively evaluated or accurately quantitatively evaluated, and the method can be widely applied to reliability design, reliability manufacture, fault analysis and system evaluation of the fire fighting system.
Owner:杜玉龙

Cascading failure search and weak link analysis method based on operation reliability model

ActiveCN106327034ASimplify the difficulty of research questionsDifficulty of SimplificationResourcesCascading failurePower flow
The invention relates to a cascading failure search and weak link analysis method based on an operation reliability model. The method comprises steps: initial failure is generated randomly; a DC power flow is calculated, whether a load threshold-crossing line exists in a power system is judged, if yes, a next step is carried out, or otherwise, the operation is stopped; an initial failure set is generated, and through the operation reliability model, the threshold-crossing line outage probability is calculated; the power system state probability is calculated; if the power state probability is larger than a set threshold and the failure scale is smaller than a set threshold, the power state is added to an alternative failure set, and if no state meeting the condition exists, search is stopped; the initial failure set is taken as an alternative failure set, the current alternative failure set is emptied, and the above steps are repeated. Through searching a cascading failure event in different initial failure and analyzing a system weak link, a corresponding system reform scheme is provided, happening of the cascading failure is prevented, a subsequent event is found during an event development process, and further evolution of the cascading event can be prevented.
Owner:CHINA ELECTRIC POWER RES INST +3

Method and system for detecting distributed denial of service attack

The invention provides a method for detecting a distributed denial of service attack, which comprises the following steps: receiving a network data packet, and extracting detection features which are related to the detection of the distributed denial of the service attack and used for proving the existence of the distributed denial of the service attack from the network data packet; using the detection features as an evidence in a simple reliability model, and calculating the reliability of the evidence; creating knowledge in the simple reliability model according to the detection features and calculating the reliability of the knowledge, wherein in the knowledge of the simple reliability model, an independent feature among the detection features corresponds to independent knowledge, and related detection features among the detection features are in the same knowledge; and calculating the reliability of conclusion events related to the distributed denial of the service attack by introducing the reliability of the evidence and the reliability of the knowledge into a reliability calculation formula of the simple reliability model. The method and the system have high detection capacity, high detection accuracy and excellent processing capacity.
Owner:烟台中科网络技术研究所

Multidisciplinary integrated design method utilizing reliability as independent discipline

The invention relates to a multidisciplinary integrated design method utilizing reliability as an independent discipline, comprising the followings steps: firstly, establishing a reliability simulation model by adopting a reliability model automatic generating method, and carrying out simulation for multiple times by adopting a Monte-Carlo method so as to calculate the reliability; secondly, constructing a reliability pseudo model by adopting a pseudo modelling method on the basis of the reliability simulation model; thirdly, constructing a reliability discipline model by utilizing the multi-complexity technology on the basis of the reliability simulation model and the pseudo model; fourthly, establishing pseudo models of other disciplines to serve as other discipline models; fifthly, establishing a whole optimization model containing the reliability discipline model; sixthly, decomposing the model to obtain a hierarchical multidisciplinary design optimization model; and seventhly, optimizing by adopting an improved collaborative optimization algorithm until an optimal design scheme is obtained. According to the invention, autonomy of the reliability discipline is maintained while integrated optimization is carried out on the reliability and performances, thus being beneficial to multianalysis and quantitative control on the reliability.
Owner:BEIHANG UNIV

Method for conducting multi-state system task reliability modeling on basis of performance model

The invention provides a method for conducting multi-state system task reliability modeling on the basis of a performance model. The method includes the following steps of S1, collecting design information of a target multi-state system; S2, building the performance model of the target multi-state system; S3, determining failure criteria of the target multi-state system; S4, conducting analysis and modeling on an failure pattern of the target multi-state system; S5, obtaining information of failures of the target multi-state system; S6, conducting failure injection and simulation on the targetmulti-state system; S7, conducting reliability analysis and evaluation on tasks of the target multi-state system, wherein a task reliability simulation evaluation method of the failure injection based on a time sequence is utilized for calculation to obtain a mean time between critical failures (MTBCF) and mission reliability (MR) of the target multi-state system. By constructing a failure transfer relation among failure mechanisms, key parameters, component performance and the system failure criteria from bottom to top to conduct task reliability analysis and evaluation of the multi-state system, better integrity and accuracy are achieved.
Owner:CHINA AERO POLYTECH ESTAB

Wind power plant reliability modeling method considering correlation between air speed and fault of wind turbine generator

The invention discloses a wind power plant reliability modeling method considering a correlation between an air speed and a fault of a wind turbine generator. The method comprises the following steps: initializing parameters; calculating each correlation coefficient of the Weibull distribution parameter of the wind power plant air speed and the wind power plant air speed; calculating the correlation coefficient between the wind power plant air speed and the quantity of fault wind turbine generators; forming a matrix containing the correlation coefficients between the wind power plant air speeds and between the same wind power plant air speed and the quantity of the fault wind turbine generators; selecting an optimal Copula function; simulating and generating a related multi-dimensional random number sequence; adopting an inverse transformation method for simulating and generating the air speed sequence and the fault wind turbine generator quantity sequence of each wind power plant; calculating an hour output power sequence of the single wind turbine generator of each wind power plant during a normal running process; calculating the hour output power sequence of each wind power plant; using a linear dividing or clustering method for establishing an equivalent multi-mode output power model. A wind power plant reliability model established according to the method provided by the invention can overcome the defects of the traditional wind power plant reliability modeling method.
Owner:NANJING INST OF TECH

Vibrational signal based railway track geometric deformation detection method

The invention relates to a vibrational signal based railway track geometric deformation detection method and belongs to the technical field of train track failure monitoring and diagnosis. The method comprises the following steps: allowing the data to be subjected to short-time Fourier transform based on vibrational data of geometric deformation types of the train at different positions, so as to obtain the vibrational spectrum; extracting the spectrum characteristics, allowing the extracted characteristics to be subjected to dimension reduction through principal component analysis, so as to obtain master spectrum characteristics; building a reliability computation module of each geometric deformation type for a support vector machine of each geometric deformation type; when on-line detection is performed, extracting the spectrum characteristics according to the real-time measured vibrational data, so as to obtain the master spectrum characteristics, obtaining the reliability models of the geometric deformation types through off-line calculation so as to obtain the reliability affiliated to each type, and gaining a diagnosis reliability vector based on the reliability. The detection method can accurately diagnose and position conditions of the geometric deformation types, and can perform on-line analysis and diagnose of the track geometric deformation types when being applied to a real-time operating high-speed train.
Owner:TSINGHUA UNIV

Accelerated degradation test statistical analysis method under multi-stress multi-failure mode dependent competition condition

The invention provides an accelerated degradation test statistical analysis method under a multi-stress multi-failure mode dependent competition condition. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring multi-stress accelerated degradation test data of a product; selecting a proper distribution model and estimating distribution parameters; establishing a model between the degradation amount distribution parameter and time and estimating a model parameter; constructing a multi-stress acceleration model; modelling multi-failure-mode dependent competitive reliability; and solving unknown parameters of the model to obtain product reliability distribution. The coupling influence of multiple stresses on life characteristics and the dependency of a degradation process and a random impact process are considered, a reliability function under the N stress M failure mode dependency competition condition is established, and the gap in the related research field is filled; based on product degradation amount distribution and a multi-stress multi-failure-mode dependent competition reliability model, an analysis method of an N-stress M-failure-mode dependent competition accelerated degradation test is established systematically for the first time, engineering practice is better met, the service life of a product is prolonged, and the accuracy of reliability evaluation is improved.
Owner:NAT UNIV OF DEFENSE TECH
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