Wind and photovoltaic complementary power generation system reliability evaluation method based on Copula theory

A wind-solar hybrid and power generation system technology, applied to electrical components, circuit devices, AC network circuits, etc., can solve the problem of affecting the reliability evaluation of the power generation system, the joint probability distribution cannot be uniquely determined, and the probability distribution of the output of the wind-solar hybrid power generation system can be changed, etc. question

Active Publication Date: 2012-11-28
CEEC JIANGSU ELECTRIC POWER DESIGN INST +1
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Problems solved by technology

[0017] 3) There is a correlation between random variables, but the Pearson linear correlation coefficient may be zero
[0035] 2) Knowing the two marginal distributions of wind farm and photovoltaic power station output, the joint probability distribution of the two cannot be uniquely determined
However, wind power and photovoltaic output in the same area are often complementary, that is, negative correlation characteristics
The correlation between the two will change the probability distribution of the output of the wind-solar hybrid power generation system and affect the reliability evaluation of the power generation system
Therefore, the existing wind-solar hybrid power generation system research cannot accurately analyze the reliability of wind-solar hybrid power generation systems

Method used

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  • Wind and photovoltaic complementary power generation system reliability evaluation method based on Copula theory
  • Wind and photovoltaic complementary power generation system reliability evaluation method based on Copula theory
  • Wind and photovoltaic complementary power generation system reliability evaluation method based on Copula theory

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Embodiment Construction

[0063] The flow chart of the technical solution of the present invention is as follows figure 2 As shown, the reliability evaluation method of wind-solar hybrid power generation system based on Copula theory of the present invention is characterized in that: let the random variable P 1 and P 2 are the output rates of the wind farm and the photovoltaic power station, respectively, (p 11 ,p 12 ,,...,p 1n ) and (p 21 ,p 22 ,...,p 2n ) are the random variable P 1 and P 2 The sample space of , n is the sample size, and p 1i and p 2i One-to-one correspondence in time, then (p 1i ,p 2i ) and (p 1j ,p 2j ) is an independent and identically distributed random vector, i, j=1,2,...,n and i≠j, according to the Copula theory, the joint probability distribution of wind farm and photovoltaic power station output in the wind-solar hybrid power generation system is calculated by the following steps:

[0064] 1) Determine the probability distribution f of wind farm and photovolta...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a wind and photovoltaic complementary power generation system reliability evaluation method based on a Copula theory. The method comprises the following steps of: (1) determining the power probability distribution of a wind power station and a photovoltaic plant; (2) respectively performing integral operation on the power probability distribution fWT(P1) and fPV(P2) of thewind power station and the photovoltaic plant, and calculating the accumulative power probability distribution of the wind power station and the photovoltaic plant; (3) calculating Kendall rank correlation coefficients of the power of the wind power station and the photovoltaic plant; (4) calculating a correlation parameter theta of a Frank Copula function; (5) forming a simultaneous equation through a formula (2) and a formula (4) to obtain the joint probability density of the random variables P1 and P2; and (6) acquiring the accumulative probability distribution of the wind and photovoltaiccomplementary power station through integral operation according to a joint probability density function of the power of the wind power station and the photovoltaic plant, forming an off-the-line table of the power of the wind and photovoltaic complementary power station through the accumulative power, and establishing a reliability model of the wind and photovoltaic complementary power station. According to the method, the reliability of the wind and photovoltaic complementary power generation system can be accurately evaluated.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for evaluating the reliability of a wind-solar hybrid power generation system, which belongs to the technical field of power system wind-wind combined power generation. Background technique [0002] The connection of large-scale wind farms and photovoltaic power stations has a certain impact on the reliability of power generation systems. The output of wind farms and photovoltaic power stations in the same area is not completely independent. The correlation between the two will change the probability distribution of the output of the wind-solar hybrid power generation system and affect the reliability evaluation of the power generation system. In the existing research on wind-solar hybrid power generation system, the output of wind farm and photovoltaic power station is modeled and analyzed as two independent individuals, and the correlation between wind power and photovoltaic output and the cumulative output of wind-s...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): H02J3/00
Inventor 钱康袁越赵继超李桃查国强孙纯军许文超王震泉徐佩锡刘捷牛涛甄宏宁郭学英乐晓蓉韩志锟
Owner CEEC JIANGSU ELECTRIC POWER DESIGN INST
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