A task reliability state-based manufacturing
system predictive maintenance method is disclosed and comprises the following steps: in a first step, a manufacturing
system underlying
database is built; in a second step, device performance variation trends and all relevant parameters are analyzed via use of underlying data; in a third step,
corrective maintenance cost of a device is predicted; in a fourth step,
planned maintenance cost of the device is predicted; in a fifth step,
processing capability loss cost of the device is predicted; in a sixth step, indirect loss cost of the device is predicted; in a seventh step, product quality loss cost of the device is predicted; in an eighth step, comprehensive cost is predicted, a task reliability threshold value of the device is determined, and an optimal
predictive maintenance strategy is further determined; in a ninth step,
task demand of the last device is determined according to a result of the eighth step, and the second step to the eighth step are repeated till a
predictive maintenance strategy of a whole manufacturing
system is made; in a tenth step, via the above steps, an aim of combining device performance conditions with production tasks is attained, and problems of conventional
neglect of production states and blind
periodic maintenance can be solved.