52 results about "Evaluation theory" patented technology

The invention relates to an evaluation method for distribution network reliability, comprising the following steps: (1) transferring evaluation of the distribution network reliability to analysis on the distribution network blackout power factors, and carrying out decoupling treatment on the distribution network blackout power factors; (2) using an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to establish an evaluation system of distribution network reliability; (3) establishing a comprehensive quantitative model of the distribution network reliability; (4) formulating an evaluation standard of the distribution network reliability; and (5) specifying weight indicators of the distribution network reliability. In the method, the evaluation theory of the distribution network reliability is combined with an actual power grid, so that the evaluation of the distribution network reliability is transferred to the analysis on the distribution network blackout factors and the evaluation system, the evaluation model, the evaluation standards and the evaluation indicator weights of the distribution network reliability are established, thus enabling to reflect the existing reliability level of the distribution network from a plurality angles, thereby playing a huge role in works, such as related decisions, high-reliability power supply area distribution network plans and the like on evaluation of the distribution network reliability, formulation of high-reliability distribution network establishment principle and establishment direction, and the like.

An embodiment of the invention discloses a transformer state evaluation method and system. State quantity indexes are normalized to obtain the health degree of the state quantity indexes, the subjective weight of each state quantity index is determined by an analytic hierarchy process in a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation theory, an objective weight corresponding to each state quantity is obtained by an entropy weight method and used for correcting the subjective weight to obtain comprehensive weight parameters of each state quantity index, the connection degree of each state quantity index and state classification is obtained by the aid of connection degree in a set pair analysis theory, and finally, data of evaluation results of a hierarchical index set of each unit are integrated by the aid of D-S evidence theory fusion rules to obtain state evaluation results of each sub-unit. Whether a transformer needs maintenance or not can be determined according to the state evaluation results, so that blindness of planned maintenance is avoided, and human and material resources needed by maintenance for the transformer are reduced.

The invention discloses a freight transportation safety evaluation model based on a man-vehicle-road-freight multi-risk source. The model is characterized in that a freight transportation safety sensing system is constructed and driver, vehicle, road (environment) and freight information is obtained; a causing factor of a freight vehicle accident is analyzed by using an accident causation theory, attribute sets of four kinds of man, vehicle, road, and freight risk sources are defined, and the attributed sets are analyzed and screened by using an accident tree analysis method; according to the screened attribute sets, a freight transportation safety risk index system is built by using an analytic hierarchy process and weights of the driver, vehicle, road(environment) and freight information factors for accident occurrence are determined; and according to the established integrated freight risk evaluation index system as well as all evaluation index weights, a freight transportation safety risk evaluation model is established by using a fuzzy evaluation theory. Therefore, the technical support for intelligent early warning can be provided for the road freight transportation safety work.

The invention discloses a volcanic material-enriched source rock organic carbon recovery method. The recovery method comprises the following steps: selecting a sample; determining content Z of volcanic materials in source rock; implementing source rock residual organic carbon analysis and kerogen treatment; dividing volcanic material-enriched source rock organic matter types through an element analysis method; calculating an organic carbon recovery coefficient Kc by combining numerical simulation with experiment; fitting related functions Kc=f(Z) of Kc and volcanic material content Z. The method disclosed by the invention, by recovering residual organic carbon of source rocks differing in volcanic material content, can greatly improve precision of recovering source rock organic carbon; meanwhile, on the basis of researching a research area test data recovery method, the reliability of resource quantity evaluation is improved; the technology fills the blank of volcanic materials in a complex sedimentary structure environment on organic matter abundance recovery, and enriches source rock evaluation theory; according to results, progress of next resource evaluation is greatly promoted.

The invention provides a comprehensive evaluating method for manless mining face exploitation geological condition of a thin seam, which belongs to a coal mine geological condition evaluation method. According to manless mining face exploitation characteristic of the thin seam, seven comprehensive evaluation factors of geological structure, coal seam thickness, coal seam stability, coal seam inclination angle, coal seam stiffness, coal seam top / base plate condition and working face lumpiness, which affect manless mining face exploitation of the thin seam. Furthermore 15 base factors are furthermore determined. Furthermore the membership function and weight of each evaluating factor are analyzed. In combination with a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation theory, a comprehensive evaluating model for manless mining face exploitation geological condition of thin seam is constructed; and a comprehensive evaluating result grade and reliability index are determined, thereby realizing comprehensive evaluation for manless mining face exploitation geological condition of the thin seam. The comprehensive evaluating method has important meaning for improving process selection of manless mining face and optimizing parameter, improving coal mining environment and improving safety condition and efficiency of the mining face.

The invention relates to a fuzzy comprehensive assessment method of bridge life cycle environmental influence, comprising: using life cycle assessment technology provided by ISO14040 as basis, introducing fuzzy assessment theory in the environmental influence assessment, quantizing environmental influence index, determining index weight through analytic hierarchy process, and obtaining latent value of the environmental influence through the fuzzy comprehensive assessment. The bridge life cycle includes a designing phase, a raw material phase, a construction phase, a running and maintaining phase and a discarding phase. The invention is characterized by overall index, current assessment, convenient operation, small subjective effect and the like and wide application foreground.

The invention discloses a monitoring point optimized layout method for emergency monitoring of sudden atmospheric pollution accidents, and belongs to the technical field of environmental risk early warning and evaluation. According to the method, a pollutant diffusion model is used for determining the diffusion range and concentration distribution characteristics of pollutants after an accident occurs, and the point distribution range is meshed based on the down-wind direction environment sensitive point distribution characteristics; the uncertainty among influence factors of emergency monitoring distribution points such as geography and environment sensitive source distribution is quantitatively processed through a fuzzy evaluation theory, different grids are screened in combination witha post-optimization technology based on clustering analysis, and the positions and the number of emergency monitoring points are determined according to the monitoring resource quantity. According tothe optimized stationing method, uncertainty existing in optimized stationing is quantitatively converted and processed, the influence of different factors on monitoring stationing is represented, andthe defect that emergency monitoring stationing of sudden atmospheric pollution accidents can only refer to monitoring specifications and historical working experience of conventional pollutants is overcome.

The invention discloses a numerical control system reliability rapid Bayes evaluation system under degradation tests. According to the failure data small sample characteristic of a high-reliability long-service-life numerical control system, a Bayes evaluation scheme based on the double stress stepping accelerated degradation tests is adopted to achieve rapid secondary acceleration evaluation effects. A double stress acceleration model is established on the basis of a temperature-humidity double stress stepping accelerated service life degradation test scheme; according to the conditions that test data are blended data composed of complete data and censored data, a multiple blended data regression method is adopted to estimate acceleration model parameters; according to the conditions that numerical control system failure modes are not single, a competition failure reliability evaluation model is established; and according to the failure data small sample characteristic, a Bayes method is utilized to solve prior distribution by means of historical information. According to the numerical control system reliability rapid Bayes evaluation system, the model parameters are evaluated by combination with a stepping accelerated test competition failure model, evaluation precision is improved, numerical control system reliability rapid evaluation theories are enriched, and a theory basis is provided for verifying a numerical control system failure mechanism and improving numerical control system reliability.

The invention discloses an intelligent and comprehensive evaluation method for cold-rolled strip steel plate shapes. The method is used for carrying out comprehensive evaluation on the macroscopic plate shapes and all plate shape components based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation theory and the fuzzy neural network theory and combined with the plate shape theory and a plate shape online detection method. The method includes the steps of carrying out online real-time pattern recognition on the plate shapes in a pattern recognition method based on the Legendre polynomial least square method, then building a plate shape comprehensive evaluation index model based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation theory, meanwhile, building a T-S type fuzzy neural network by using data of the macroscopic plate shapes and data of all the plate shape components, and carrying out comprehensive evaluation on an average value of the macroscopic plate shapes and an average value of all the plate shape components. According to the intelligent and comprehensive evaluation method for the cold-rolled strip steel plate shapes, the data of all the plate shapes are organically combined to build the comprehensive evaluation index model, and intelligent and comprehensive evaluation on plate shape quality is achieved.

The invention provides a cognitive evaluation theory-based Chinese text emotion recognition method, which comprises the following steps of: 1) preprocessing a Chinese text by using a natural language processing tool to obtain the dependency of sentence constituents; 2) determining emotion recognition variables contained in a sentence according to a method for determining the emotion recognition variables, and assigning the sentence constituents to the emotion recognition variables; 3) determining the values of the emotion recognition variables according to a method for assigning the emotion recognition variables; and 4) determining an emotion style expressed by the sentence according to an emotion rule. The Chinese text emotion recognition method has higher accuracy for recognizing Chinese text emotion and can recognize 22 emotion styles.

The invention discloses a comprehensive state evaluation theory method for new intelligent station relay protection equipment. The method comprises steps: a protection device is adopted as a monitoring platform for the device itself, the protection device is self detected, first parameters of the protection device and second parameters of a secondary circuit are acquired, and the first parametersand the second parameters are transmitted to a signal processing system, wherein the secondary circuit is used for monitoring the circuit where the device and the protection device are connected; andbased on the first parameters and the second parameters, state evaluation is carried out: an evaluation component and a scoring principle for the whole device are set, and the equipment in the relay protection device or an interval operation condition can be evaluated. When the method of the invention is applied, an intelligent closed loop management process of intelligent acquisition, risk earlywarning, state evaluation, maintenance strategy and measure management for state maintenance of the substation relay protection equipment can be realized, and the purposes of safe and reliable equipment operation and economic and reasonable maintenance can be achieved.

The invention belongs to the technical field of power grid dispatching automation, and in particular relates to a control theory-based real-time measurement and assessment query system for the regulation performance of a generator set, which is a method for online measurement of the regulation performance of a generator set participating in automatic power generation control, and can provide Check query function. The invention can measure parameters such as adjustment rate, adjustment accuracy and response time of each AGC unit in real time on-line. Rewriting the actual parameters into the AGC unit parameter table will help control the AGC unit, reduce frequent adjustments to the generator set, reduce the loss of the generator set, improve the regional CPS index, stabilize the grid frequency, and improve the stability of the grid. It also provides credible data for AGC unit assessment.

The invention provides a technical value evaluation method and an evaluation model of technical economic life based on a fuzzy evaluation theory and substance-field analysis. During quantitative analysis, by using a cluster analysis method, a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and the like, a quantitative analysis model of a technical value evaluation index system is constructed; meanwhile, for a mark sheet of technical sharing rate adjustment coefficients, a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model for quantification of qualitative questions is used, so the current mainstream technical value evaluation system becomes more perfect, and an evaluation effect is more scientific. According to a substance-field model, a commissioned evaluation technology is subjected to functional decomposition, a technical function which causes key influence on a technical value is determined, the development history and development tendency of the technical function are shown by using different S curves, the different S curves are fitted and automatically calculated by using Loglet Lab 2 software, and the economic life of the key technical function of the commissioned evaluation technology is determined, so that the economic life of the commissioned evaluation technology is determined.

The invention discloses an industrial park terminal water treatment system assessment method. Firstly an industrial park terminal water treatment system assessment indicator system including technical indicators, environmental impact indicators, economic indicators and operation management indicators is constructed, then the subjective weight of each assessment indicator is determined by adopting an analytic hierarchy process and the objective weight of each assessment indicator is determined by adopting an entropy weight method, and the comprehensive weight of each assessment indicator is calculated by utilizing the mode of combination of the subjective weight and the objective weight. Secondly the evaluation standard of each indicator of the industrial park terminal water treatment system evaluation space is determined based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation theory, the membership function of each assessment indicator is determined, the fuzzy judgment matrix of each assessment indicator is constructed, and the assessment result of the terminal water treatment scheme of each industrial park is further calculated. The advantages and the disadvantages of the industrial park terminal water treatment technology can be rapidly and accurately assessed so that feasible suggestions can be provided for the existing industrial park terminal water treatment technology, and reference can be provided for selection of the new industrial park terminal water treatment technology.

The invention relates to the technical field of reservoir dam collapse prediction, and discloses a reservoir dam collapse risk analysis method based on a cloud theory. The reservoir dam collapse risk analysis method comprises the steps of generating a cloud evaluation scale according to the digital characteristic of a risk grade evaluation theory domain; calculating the deviation degree of a cloud gravity center vector from an ideal-state cloud gravity center vector according to a decision matrix which reflects the comment of a decision maker to each risk factor; and determining the risk grade of dam collapse according to the deviation degree and the cloud evaluation scale. The reservoir dam collapse risk analysis method is combined with the field objective reality of the reservoir and can quantitatively evaluate the reservoir dam collapse risk. Furthermore the identified risk grade is more accurate.

The invention discloses a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation theory-based elevator equipment health state diagnosis method, which comprises the following steps of: establishing an evaluation index set of a destination control system (DCS) by utilizing a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, and establishing an evaluation grade set according to the evaluation index set which comprises a standard layer and an index layer; calculating the index weight of the standard layer by adopting an entropy weight method; adopting an analytic hierarchy process to calculate the index allocation weight of the index layer; calculating the membership degree of each index in the index layer according to the membership degree function and the evaluation grade set, and determining a first evaluation matrix and a second evaluation matrix; evaluating the standard layer according to the first evaluation matrix and the index weight of the standard layer to obtain an evaluation result vector of the standard layer; and evaluating the index layer according to the second evaluation matrix and the index allocation weight of the index layer to obtain an evaluation result vector of the index layer. According to the method, the feasibility of elevator health state evaluation is improved, and meanwhile, the cost required in application is reduced.

The invention provides a comprehensive evaluation index weight quantification method and system in consideratioin of microgrid functional characteristics, and the method comprises the steps: constructing a microgrid comprehensive evaluation system, and calculating the subjective weight and objective weight of each evaluation index; and determining the weight ratio of the subjective weight to the objective weight of the power supply guarantee-type microgrid or the economic microgrid by taking the optimal accuracy value as a target based on a support vector machine. According to the method, thesubjective and objective weight ratio of the evaluation system is optimized based on the combined evaluation theory and the support vector machine classification model, the importance degree of the index can be objectively and quantitatively analyzed, and the actual meaning and property of the index can also be considered. Meanwhile, by combining the functional characteristics of various types ofmicrogrids, guidance is provided for system operation performance evaluation of various types of micro-grids in a targeted manner, the method is suitable for evaluating a multi-target complex micro-grid system, and evaluation personnel can conveniently and scientifically and reasonably evaluate the microgrid system by integrating various factors and expected targets.

The invention discloses a method for evaluating a built-up environment around a rail transit station based on a TOD development mode, a multi-level evaluation index system is established in combination with urban traffic big data and a built-up environment evaluation theory, multi-source heterogeneous space-time big data is utilized, and a plurality of computer vision and geographic space analysis methods are adopted to evaluate the built-up environment around the rail transit station. Therefore, the comprehensive index evaluation of the built environment of the rail transit station can be quickly obtained. Drawing of an environment map and visual data expression are added, data are input into a GIS system to be summarized, and an environment feature database built around the urban rail transit station is formed; Important basis is provided for providing planning management promotion strategies including main deficiencies, main promotion potential points and the like for scoring conditions of all rail transit stations and branches of evaluation indexes of different levels, and information and a system framework required by dynamic management and sustainable development of communities around the stations are provided for decision makers.

The invention relates to a bra match index evaluate method based on laminate analysis, comprising that 1, selecting bra match index subjective evaluate method, 2, assuring the bra match index evaluate factor and evaluate demands, 3, building bra match index evaluate group, 4, assuring weight vectors of evaluate factor, 5, building bra match index fuzzy evaluate model. The invention has the advantages of that it formed an integral bra match index quantitative evaluation system, to overcome the defects of traditional experiment evaluation with undefined factors and fuzzy evaluation, to provide a novel bra dress evaluation theory.

The invention relates to a Karst foundation stability fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The Karst foundation stability fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method comprises the following steps: step 1, analyzing environmental geological background characteristics of a research area; step 2, analyzing hydrogeological condition characteristics of a research area; 3, analyzing karst development characteristics of the research area; 4, establishing a karst foundation stability evaluation model; and 5, analyzing the influence of karst development on engineering. According to the method, a fuzzy comprehensive secondary evaluation model for evaluating the stability of the karst roof is established; according to a multi-stage fuzzy evaluation theory in fuzzy mathematics, the stability of the karstfoundation is evaluated by adopting a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method; according to the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, in the calculation process, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation software is utilized, a judgment matrix and a membership degree matrix are directly input, a weighted average type fuzzy synthesis operator is selected, the fuzzy transformation principle is utilized, and according to the maximum membership degree principle, the karst foundation stability evaluation result can be quantitatively obtained.

The invention relates to the technical field of wind power transmission, in particular to a full life cycle theory-based power transmission engineering project post-evaluation method. The method is characterized by comprising the steps of considering costs and benefits of a project by adopting a full life cycle theory, and analyzing total cost and benefit obtained in a full life period of an energy storage system; then, analyzing the costs and benefits of the project to find out main cost and benefit types, and calculating the main cost and benefit types; and finally, subtracting the project costs from the project benefits to obtain the total benefit of the project in the full life cycle, and analyzing benefits obtained by different energy storage systems. The full life cycle-based evaluation theory verifies that the effects of reducing a blockage wind abandoning amount and improving the benefits in the power transmission engineering project are remarkable. The specific method has theadvantages of scientificity and reasonability, high applicability, high accuracy, good effect and the like.

The invention discloses an enterprise cumulative environmental risk assessment system and method based on an environmental risk system, and belongs to the field of environmental science and environmental risks. The evaluation system and method are used for enterprise cumulative environmental risk evaluation. The method comprises the steps: based on an environmental risk system theory, establishingan enterprise cumulative environmental risk index evaluation model according to an enterprise cumulative environmental risk source index, an enterprise cumulative environmental risk management and control level index and an enterprise cumulative environmental risk receptor sensitivity index; and then grading the enterprise cumulative environmental risk, and evaluating the grade to which the enterprise cumulative environmental risk belongs according to the established index evaluation model. The method is not limited to a single pollutant, takes the enterprise as an evaluation object, effectively identifies the polluted enterprise with potential risks, has relatively high applicability and universality, can scientifically, systematically and accurately evaluate the cumulative environmentalrisks of the enterprise, and enriches the cumulative environmental risk evaluation theory.

The invention relates to a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method for the quality of rapeseed meal subjected to microbial fermentation. The method comprises: according to main influence factors of the quality of the fermented rapeseed meal, introducing a fuzzy evaluation theory in evaluation; determining an index weight with a forced determination method; and obtaining a comprehensive score of the quality of the fermented rapeseed meal with an evaluation grade assignment method through fuzzy comprehensive evaluation so as to judge the quality of the rapeseed meal. Furthermore, the comprehensive score can be used for selection of a fermentation mode and a fermentation condition, so that result judgment is simpler, more convenient and more visual. The method has the remarkable characteristics of comprehensive indexes, accuracy for evaluation, convenience for operation, small subjective influence and the like, and has a wide application prospect in the aspect of evaluating the quality of the rapeseed meal.

The invention discloses an intelligent electrical fire early warning system and method for a tobacco warehouse, comprehensive and real-time key parameter monitoring and analysis are achieved, and due to the fact that multi-factor coupling comprehensive early warning is adopted, the problem that the threshold value of a single factor is not accurate in the past is solved; according to fire risk key influence factor data monitored in real time, comprehensive analysis is carried out through the established electrical fire comprehensive risk prediction model based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation theory and the BP neural network technology, the risk occurrence possibility and the risk consequence severity quantized value are determined, and finally an electrical fire comprehensive risk level value is determined. In addition, the system has self-learning and self-perfection functions, and the purpose of high-precision and high-reliability risk prediction can be achieved.

The invention discloses an infant quality and ability development evaluation method. The method comprises: setting questionnaires of multiple stages for the quality and ability of the infant respectively and can be adjusted in real time, the questionnaires of each stage of the quality and ability of the infant being composed of questions of a plurality of indexes and options of different scores, and the front stage and the rear stage are correlated and verified (the same questions are set); parents filling in questionnaires by stages; and according to the score filled by the parent, obtainingan infant quality and ability evaluation report of each stage, and giving analysis and suggestions to the infant in combination with the infant quality and ability evaluation result report. On the basis of an international advanced infant comprehensive quality evaluation theory, an autonomously innovative evaluation system and evaluation algorithm are combined, a program concept is introduced, anda programmed question-answering mode is realized by applying cloud computing. Information collection modes of educational institutions such as gardens about children during enrollment are enriched, and the method is convenient to popularize and use.

The invention belongs to the technical field of new energy and discloses an assessment indicator system and method integrating wind electricity, optical electricity, energy storage and a transmission project. The method comprises the steps that firstly, according to the difference of assessment content and suitable objects, the multi-link assessment indicator system is established, wherein the multi-link assessment indicator system comprises an item overall-effect assessment indicator system and an item link assessment indicator system; secondly, an assessment indicator standard is formed by referring to relevant standard content in relevant national regulations or relevant industrial regulations and combining practical situations and specific conditions of the wind electricity, the optical electricity, the energy storage and the transmission project; thirdly, a multi-dimensional assessment method system integrating a comprehensive assessment method at the macroscopic level and a basic assessment method at the microcosmic level is proposed, and an objective and scientific assessment result is obtained. According to the assessment indicator system and method integrating the wind electricity, the optical electricity, the energy storage and the transmission project, the assessment theory of new energy power generation is utilized, the assessment regulation having the reference significance and the guiding significance is formed, and the blank of the Chinese new energy combined power generation post assessment field is filled up.

The invention discloses a method for evaluating the comprehensive state of power transformation equipment, and the method comprises the steps: importing a state index data processing result, and carrying out the state evaluation of a power transformer on the basis of a data set representing the abnormal state of the power transformer; classifying state indexes, processing index data, constructing a layered evaluation system, formulating an index weight by using a subjective and objective fusion weighting method, and obtaining a state evaluation result of the power transformer according to the index weight. The state evaluation of an on-line monitoring device is based on an abnormal data set caused by an abnormal operation of the on-line monitoring device. The state evaluation comprises three steps of constructing a representation relation between data of an abnormal mode and the abnormal state of the on-line monitoring device, representing the probability of the abnormal state, and completing the state evaluation of the on-line monitoring device by using a membership function in a fuzzy evaluation theory. State evaluation models of the power transformer and the on-line monitoring device are respectively established, so that a power transformation equipment comprehensive state evaluation system based on data driving is formed.

The invention relates to a multi-element comprehensive quantitative detection method for the health state of a pipe gallery structure, which comprises the following steps of: firstly, establishing various disease indexes for settlement, section rotation, surface crack, deformation joint opening and water leakage of all sections of pipe galleries in a detection section by using various monitoring sensors, three-dimensional laser scanning and other detection technologies and data; the average level of a certain type of diseases of all segmented pipe galleries and the difference level of the segmented diseases can be scientifically represented; secondly, on the basis of each disease index and a multivariate factor evaluation theory, establishing a multivariate comprehensive quantitative evaluation index for various diseases in the detection section, and comparing the multivariate comprehensive quantitative evaluation index with an index allowable value to realize comprehensive and quantitative evaluation of the overall health state of the pipe gallery structure in the detection section; the informatization and scientization level of pipe gallery operation and maintenance management and disease prevention and control can be effectively improved.

The invention belongs to the technical field of target association tracking, and particularly relates to a multi-sensor multi-target association tracking method. According to the method, multi-modal target-level measurement information provided by multiple sensors is used as an input item of an algorithm, and the target-level measurement information of the multiple sensors is interconnected and matched with a tracked target at the last moment, so that the target is tracked; herein, fuzziness between a target state value and a measurement value is fully considered, and according to the fuzziness, a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation theory is adopted to carry out data-level association and tracking on a target from target state data and measurement data levels, and multi-modal measurement information provided by a sensor is considered in the target association process. Therefore, the reliability of target association is improved, so that multiple targets can be associated and tracked well.

The invention relates to an equipment state variable selection method and equipment based on grey fuzzy analytic hierarchy process. The selection method comprises the following steps: acquiring multiple groups of candidate state variables; obtaining an evaluation index of each variable in each group of candidate state variables, and obtaining an evaluation value of the group of candidate state variables by using a grey fuzzy analytic hierarchy process; outputting a group of candidate state variables corresponding to the optimal evaluation value as final equipment state variables, wherein the evaluation values of the group of candidate state variables obtained by the grey fuzzy analytic hierarchy process are specifically as follows: constructing relative importance based on a fuzzy theory; calculating a gray evaluation weight matrix corresponding to the evaluation index of each variable based on gray class division and a gray evaluation theory; calculating to obtain a gray evaluation weight vector of each variable; and calculating and obtaining the evaluation value of the group of candidate state variables based on the relative importance among the variables and the gray evaluation weight vector. Compared with the prior art, the invention has the advantages of high reliability and the like.