The invention discloses a method for predicting a regional saturation capacity based on a nonparametric model. The method comprises the steps of (1) establishing a nonparametric regression model, introducing a Gaussian kernel weight function, using a local polynomial estimation method to carry out estimation, and determining a mapping relation between the power demand and influence factors, (2) establishing a nonparametric cumulative model, introducing a secondary planning problem, and confirming a cumulative coefficient based on the nonparametric regression model, (3) selecting an impact factor, (4) selecting an order and a bandwidth according to the amount of collected data, and (5) combining data and substituting the data into the nonparametric regression model and the nonparametric cumulative model to predict electricity consumption and saturation power. According to the established nonparametric cumulative model, the precision of regional saturation capacity prediction is greatly improved, the computational complexity is reduced, the regional saturation capacity can be precisely predicted, and the rationality of regional vision power system planning work is improved.