This invention relates to a method and
system for predicting daily average freight volume in cold regions, integrating holiday and
emergency response scenarios, belonging to the field of logistics transportation and
time series forecasting technology. The invention first constructs a generalized external disturbance factor
system incorporating multi-stage effects of holidays and three-level states of
emergency response. Preprocessing of cold region freight
time series data is completed using the Z-
score method and STL
decomposition. Then, the importance quantification of disturbance factors and automatic screening of high-
impact factors are achieved through the XGBoost-SHAP interpretable framework. The screened factors are then embedded into the Prophet model to construct an XGBoost-SHAP-Prophet
hybrid prediction architecture, completing
hyperparameter optimization and multi-
route-
specific model training. Finally, through multi-
route parallel prediction and residual correction mechanisms, high-precision prediction results for daily average freight weight and parcel quantity are output. The prediction accuracy of this invention is significantly better than mainstream
time series forecasting models, and can directly provide data support for
capacity planning, vehicle scheduling, and carbon emission reduction decisions for logistics companies in cold regions.