The invention relates to the technical field of medical
informatization, in particular to an MCI cognitive trajectory and bidirectional outcome
dynamic prediction method based on a joint model. The method comprises the following specific steps: firstly, constructing a univariate joint model, then constructing a multivariate joint model, and then constructing a
function type multivariate joint model; performing parameter
estimation and statistical
inference on the model; fitting evaluation is carried out on the
function type multivariable joint model based on multi-longitudinal
cognition and multi-state outcome; and finally, carrying out individualized
dynamic prediction. According to the method, a baseline or longitudinal nerve image is processed by using a
function type data analysis technology, and a change track is reconstructed; a plurality of cognitive assessments are used as longitudinal measurement indexes, covariants such as
age and gender and functional nerve images are used as predictive factors, two-way outcome of MCI and
occurrence time of the two-way outcome are set as survival outcomes, a joint model based on multi-longitudinal cognitive multi-state outcomes is constructed, early screening of high-
risk groups is assisted, and the survival outcomes of the high-
risk groups are determined. And powerful support is provided for optimal distribution of medical and medical and health resources.