Complex mechanism dynamic cascading reliability modeling method based on colored stochastic Petri network

Abstract

The invention discloses a complex mechanism dynamic cascading reliability modeling method based on a colored stochastic Petri network. The method comprises the following five steps that firstly, a system is layered from top to bottom according to the structure, functions and operational profile of the system, the upper layer of the system is obtained by means of functional layer division, and the lower layer of the system is obtained by means of structural layer division; secondly, the fault modes and the influences of all the layers of the system are analyzed through an FMEA method, a logic relation between correlated faults is given, fault criteria influencing the functions are determined, and the hierarchy and transmissibility of the faults of the system are clarified; thirdly, a CSPN reliability submodel of each layer is established according to the logic relation between the faults and the functions; fourthly, the CSPN submodels of all the layers are connected organically by means of transition substitution to establish an overall reliability model of the system; fifthly, a color function, a node function, an arc expression function and a defense function of each layer are determined, and the reliability of the system is analyzed and evaluated by means of Monte Carlo simulation.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to a complex mechanism dynamic cascade reliability modeling method based on colored stochastic Petri nets, in particular to a complex mechanism system dynamic cascade reliability modeling method based on fault propagation and colored stochastic Petri nets, which belongs to complex Mechanism system reliability modeling technical field. Background technique [0002] The structure and function of complex mechanism systems are becoming more and more complex, and the system reliability problems are becoming more and more prominent. During the long-term service process, the faults of complex mechanism systems may propagate and transform, and there will be "irregular" evolution between chaos and order, and behaviors such as structural damage, functional mutation or deterioration caused by multi-level complex interactions will emerge. The reliability problem of complex mechanism system has obvious characteristics of multi-state, ...

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Problems solved by technology

But these Petri nets can only describe a certain aspect of complex institutional systems when used alone

For example, the hierarchical Petri net model can be used to deal with the cascading problems in the "dynamic cascade" of complex institutional systems, but it cannot describe degradation, time-varying and multi-state problems; the colored Petri net model can deal with system multi-state problems, but it cannot describe Time-varying and degraded dynamic problems; the stochastic Petri net model can handle dynamic problems in which the transition excitation time obeys an exponential distribution, but it cannot describe the dynamic problems in which the transition excitation time obeys a non-exponential distribution and time-varying and degenerated dynamic problems

Therefore, the existing Petri net model is still unable to fully describe the dynamic cascading problem of complex institutional system performance degradation and the emergence of faults between different levels.

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