A Dynamic Cascade Reliability Modeling Method for Complex Mechanisms Based on Colored Stochastic Petri Nets

Abstract

A dynamic cascading reliability modeling method for complex mechanisms based on colored stochastic Petri nets. It has five major steps: 1. Divide the system into layers from top to bottom according to the structure, function, and operation profile of the system; Hierarchy, the lower layer is divided into structural hierarchies; 2. Use FMEA method to analyze the failure mode and impact of each level of the system, give the logical relationship between related failures, determine the failure criteria that affect the function, and clarify the hierarchy and nature of system failures. Propagation; 3. Establish CSPN reliability sub-models at each level according to the logical relationship between faults and functions; 4. Use transition and replacement to organically connect the CSPN models at each level to build a reliability model for the entire system; 5. Determine the reliability of each level. Color function, node function, arc expression function, guard function, and use Monte Carlo simulation to analyze and evaluate the system reliability.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to a complex mechanism dynamic cascade reliability modeling method based on colored stochastic Petri nets, in particular to a complex mechanism system dynamic cascade reliability modeling method based on fault propagation and colored stochastic Petri nets, which belongs to complex Mechanism system reliability modeling technical field. Background technique [0002] The structure and function of complex mechanism systems are becoming more and more complex, and the system reliability problems are becoming more and more prominent. During the long-term service process, the faults of complex mechanism systems may propagate and transform, and there will be "irregular" evolution between chaos and order, and behaviors such as structural damage, functional mutation or deterioration caused by multi-level complex interactions will emerge. The reliability problem of complex mechanism system has obvious characteristics of multi-state, ...

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Problems solved by technology

But these Petri nets can only describe a certain aspect of complex institutional systems when used alone

For example, the hierarchical Petri net model can be used to deal with the cascading problems in the "dynamic cascade" of complex institutional systems, but it cannot describe degradation, time-varying and multi-state problems; the colored Petri net model can deal with system multi-state problems, but it cannot describe Time-varying and degraded dynamic problems; the stochastic Petri net model can handle dynamic problems in which the transition excitation time obeys an exponential distribution, but it cannot describe the dynamic problems in which the transition excitation time obeys a non-exponential distribution and time-varying and degraded dynamic problems

Therefore, the existing Petri net model is still unable to fully describe the dynamic cascading problem of complex institutional system performance degradation and the emergence of faults between different levels.

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