Economic benefit evaluation method for local railway construction project

Abstract

The embodiment of the invention discloses an economic benefit evaluation method for a local railway construction project. The method comprises the following steps: determining variable elements for interrelation and influence between the local railway construction project and local economic benefits and a causal relationship between the variable elements; establishing a system dynamics flow graph of the local railway construction project and the local economic benefit according to the causal relationship among the variable elements; wherein the system dynamics flow graph comprises a dynamic process and an action relationship among a regional national economy total production value, a railway freight demand quantity and a railway freight capacity; establishing a system dynamics model according to the system dynamics flow graph and the statistical data corresponding to each variable element; and analyzing the influence of the local railway construction project on the local economic benefit based on the simulated operation data of the system dynamics model. Through the embodiment of the invention, the effect of local railway construction on local economic development is analyzed.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of railway construction, and in particular to a method for evaluating the economic benefits of a local railway construction project. Background Art

[0002] The economic benefits of railway development primarily lie in saving time and reducing the opportunity cost of travel. Railways can effectively shorten passengers' travel time and increase indirect income. Railway construction is also a long-term development industry. On the one hand, railway construction itself will create a large number of jobs. On the other hand, railway construction will improve regional accessibility and expand the market size, thereby enhancing regional attractiveness. Railways can drive the development and prosperity of the tourism industry, bring new impetus to industrial restructuring, and accelerate industrial upgrading. Local railways have a significant impact on boosting domestic economic demand. Therefore, the construction of local railways must be based on market demand and objectively evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of railway construction projects from the perspective of diverse stakeholders such as investors, operators, passengers, and freight transporters. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out economic evaluation of local railway construction projects.

[0003] Due to the influence of the innate endowments and acquired development gaps among various cities and regions, cities with different economic development levels along the railway are affected differently by the construction and opening of railways. Local railway construction needs to consider more influencing factors. Therefore, there is an urgent need for a method that can combine or target local characteristics to evaluate the economic benefits of local railway construction projects. Summary of the Invention

[0004] The present invention aims to solve at least one of the technical problems existing in the prior art. To this end, the present invention proposes a method for evaluating the economic benefits of local railway construction projects to analyze the impact of local railway construction on local economic development.

[0005] The present invention provides a method for evaluating the economic benefits of a local railway construction project, comprising:

[0006] Determine the variable elements that are interconnected and influence the local railway construction projects and local economic benefits, as well as the causal relationship between each of the variable elements; wherein the variable elements include local asset investment, railway fixed asset investment, regional gross domestic product, and industrial output value;

[0007] A system dynamics flow diagram of local railway construction projects and local economic benefits is established based on the causal relationship between the variable elements; wherein the system dynamics flow diagram includes the dynamic process and interaction relationship between regional gross national product, railway freight demand, and railway freight capacity;

[0008] Establishing a system dynamics model based on the system dynamics flow diagram and corresponding statistical data of each variable element;

[0009] The impact of local railway construction projects on local economic benefits is analyzed based on the simulated operation data of the system dynamics model.

[0010] In one embodiment of the above-mentioned method for evaluating the economic benefits of local railway construction projects,

[0011] The causal relationship between the variable elements includes:

[0012] The first closed-loop growth relationship is formed by the regional GDP, industrial output value and railway freight demand;

[0013] The second closed-loop growth relationship is formed by the reform of railway freight, the demand for railway freight and the capacity of railway freight;

[0014] The third closed-loop growth relationship formed by regional GDP, railway fixed asset investment, and railway freight capacity;

[0015] The growth of road freight volume is the first obstacle to the demand for rail freight;

[0016] The growth in demand for railway freight will be a second obstacle to the regional GDP if the supply of railway resources is insufficient.

[0017] In one embodiment of the above-mentioned method for evaluating the economic benefits of local railway construction projects,

[0018] The system dynamics model includes the following equations:

[0019] The change in regional GDP = the growth of regional GDP - the resistance of regional GDP;

[0020] Change in railway freight capacity = increase in railway freight capacity - decrease in railway freight capacity;

[0021] Wherein, a model is established between the change in the regional gross national economic product and the railway freight capacity through the railway freight demand.

[0022] In one embodiment of the above-mentioned method for evaluating the economic benefits of local railway construction projects,

[0023] A model is established between the change in the regional gross domestic product and the railway freight capacity through railway freight demand, including:

[0024] Impediment of regional GDP = Growth of regional GDP * Impediment coefficient of regional GDP * (Actual railway freight volume / Variance in freight volume);

[0025] Volume difference = railway freight capacity - railway freight demand;

[0026] Railway freight demand = 0.1 * delay time for the increase in road freight volume to affect railway freight volume - (railway freight capacity + industrial output value * industrial output value coefficient) * railway freight growth coefficient;

[0027] Actual railway freight volume = railway freight coefficient * industrial output value;

[0028] Highway freight volume = industrial output value * highway freight coefficient;

[0029] Industrial output value = regional gross national product * industrial output value proportion;

[0030] Growth in railway freight capacity = growth coefficient of railway freight capacity * (railway freight capacity + (investment delay + railway fixed asset investment + local asset investment) * investment conversion rate);

[0031] Reduction in railway freight capacity = increase in railway freight capacity * delay in reduction of railway freight capacity;

[0032] Local asset investment = local asset investment amount;

[0033] Investment delay = the delay between local asset investment and railway fixed asset investment and the improvement of railway freight capacity.

[0034] In one embodiment of the above-mentioned method for evaluating the economic benefits of local railway construction projects,

[0035] The highway freight coefficient is the ratio of highway freight volume to industrial output value;

[0036] The railway freight coefficient is the ratio of railway freight volume to industrial output value;

[0037] The industrial output value proportion is the ratio of the industrial output value to the regional gross domestic product; wherein the industrial output value is the industrial output value of the regional secondary industry.

[0038] In one embodiment of the above-mentioned method for evaluating the economic benefits of local railway construction projects,

[0039] The method further includes: obtaining the growth of the gross national product and the proportion of industrial output value through linear fitting.

[0040] In one embodiment of the above-mentioned method for evaluating the economic benefits of local railway construction projects,

[0041] The method further comprises:

[0042] Establish corresponding table functions based on statistical data; wherein the statistical data includes historically known variable elements;

[0043] Unknown variable elements in the system dynamics model are determined based on the table function.

[0044] In one embodiment of the above-mentioned method for evaluating the economic benefits of local railway construction projects,

[0045] The method further comprises: performing interpolation processing on missing values ​​and abnormal values ​​in statistically historically known variable elements.

[0046] In one embodiment of the above-mentioned method for evaluating the economic benefits of local railway construction projects,

[0047] The method further includes: repeatedly debugging the system dynamics model through an empirical method to determine the values ​​of variable elements.

[0048] In one embodiment of the above-mentioned method for evaluating the economic benefits of local railway construction projects,

[0049] The analysis of the impact of local railway construction projects on local economic benefits based on the simulated operation data of the system dynamics model includes:

[0050] The simulated value of regional gross national economic product is obtained based on the simulation operation of the system dynamics model;

[0051] By comparing the simulated regional GDP under the same conditions without and with the local railway construction project, the impact of the local railway construction project on the local economic benefits is analyzed.

[0052] One or more of the above embodiments of the present invention have at least one or more of the following beneficial effects:

[0053] In implementing the technical solution of the present invention, a dynamic model is established based on the characteristics of local railways and system dynamics, and the coordinated development of local railway freight and economy is explored from the perspective of overall dynamic changes. The solution of the present invention can enable railway enterprises and governments to fully and accurately grasp the development of regional railways, analyze positive feedback and negative feedback through information accumulation and feedback, and provide theoretical reference and decision support for relevant decision-making departments; the process of establishing the model is based on the historical statistical data of the location of the local railway and the characteristics of the matching area. Therefore, this modeling technology solution is applicable to regions with different economic development levels, and the established system dynamics model can be used to simulate the operating conditions of the system within a certain period of time, and study solutions or measures to improve the system; in the modeling process, starting with local railways, the relationship between railway freight volume, freight capacity and regional economic development is studied, and the dynamic change trend of the impact of local railways on the regional economy during regional development can be predicted. The prediction results can be used to reversely regulate planning solutions to optimize regional economic development.

[0054] Additional aspects and advantages of the present invention will be set forth in part in the description which follows and, in part, will be obvious from the description which follows, or may be learned through practice of the present invention. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0055] The disclosure of the present invention will be more easily understood with reference to the accompanying drawings. Those skilled in the art will readily appreciate that these drawings are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to limit the scope of protection of the present invention. Furthermore, similar numbers in the drawings represent similar components, wherein:

[0056] Figure 1 This is a flow chart of the main steps of a method for evaluating the economic benefits of a local railway construction project according to one embodiment of the present invention;

[0057] Figure 2 is a railway acquisition basic causal relationship diagram according to one embodiment of the present invention;

[0058] Figure 3 is a positive feedback loop diagram of a first closed-loop relationship according to one embodiment of the present invention;

[0059] Figure 4 is a positive feedback loop diagram of a second closed-loop relationship according to one embodiment of the present invention;

[0060] Figure 5 is a negative feedback loop diagram of highway freight volume (regional gross national product) according to one embodiment of the present invention;

[0061] Figure 6 is a negative feedback loop diagram of highway freight volume (industrial production volume) according to one embodiment of the present invention;

[0062] Figure 7 is a schematic diagram of an upper negative and lower positive feedback loop according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0063] Figure 8 is a dynamic flow diagram of a local railway freight development system according to one embodiment of the present invention;

[0064] Figure 9 is a linear fitting graph of gross national product according to one embodiment of the present invention;

[0065] Figure 10 1 is a linear fitting diagram of industrial output value proportion according to an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0066] Some embodiments of the present invention are described below with reference to the accompanying drawings. Those skilled in the art should understand that these embodiments are only used to explain the technical principles of the present invention and are not intended to limit the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0067] See attached Figure 1 , Figure 1 This is a flow chart of the main steps of a method for evaluating the economic benefits of a local railway construction project according to an embodiment of the present invention. Figure 1 As shown, a method for evaluating the economic benefits of a local railway construction project in an embodiment of the present invention mainly includes the following steps S101 to S104:

[0068] Step S101: Determine the variable elements that are interconnected and influence the local railway construction project and local economic benefits, as well as the causal relationship between the variable elements; wherein the variable elements include local asset investment, railway fixed asset investment, regional gross national product, and industrial output value;

[0069] In one embodiment, the variable elements also include the growth of regional GDP, the obstacle of regional GDP, the obstacle coefficient of regional GDP, freight volume difference, actual railway freight volume, railway freight demand, road freight volume, the growth of railway freight capacity, the reduction of railway freight capacity, investment delay, investment conversion rate, railway freight capacity growth coefficient, the delay time of railway freight capacity reduction, road freight coefficient, railway freight coefficient, the delay time from fixed asset investment to railway freight capacity improvement, industrial output value proportion, railway freight growth coefficient, industrial output value coefficient, etc. The selection of variable elements needs to consider various factors in local railway construction. For example, national railways usually only have a fixed asset investment part, and the sources of funds for fixed asset investment are roughly national budget funds, domestic loans, self-raised funds, and foreign capital utilization. Local railway construction needs to consider local asset investment, with local investment as the main source. When a place is preparing to build a railway, the fixed asset investment is equal to the original fixed asset investment amount plus the investment amount provided by different financing channels. Furthermore, the industrial output value is the output value of the secondary industry in the region. The secondary industry refers to processing and manufacturing industries such as mining, manufacturing, supply, and construction, which are more relevant to the Tianlu. Assuming that the local railway transportation is mainly bulk goods such as coal and ore, the proportion of the above output value to the total output value is used to measure the industrial structure of the area.

[0070] In one embodiment, the causal relationship refers to the description of the system structure. In this example, the causal relationship between the variable elements is determined by drawing a causal relationship diagram, such as Figure 2 As shown in the figure, the relationship between railway freight volume, railway freight capacity and regional national economic development is determined through the causal relationship diagram. Specifically, the first closed-loop growth relationship formed by regional national economic GDP, industrial output value and railway freight demand is as follows: Figure 3 The positive feedback loop of this relationship is shown in Figure 1. As the regional GDP grows, industrial output value will also increase, bringing more cargo to the railway, increasing the demand for railway freight, and promoting the regional economy to a certain extent. The second closed-loop growth relationship formed by the reform of railway freight, the demand for railway freight, and the railway freight capacity is as follows: Figure 4 As shown in the positive feedback loop of this relationship, with the improvement of railway freight capacity and the orderly advancement of railway freight reform, railway freight absorbs more cargo sources, and the demand for railway freight increases accordingly; the growth of road freight volume has the first obstacle relationship to the demand for railway freight, such as Figure 5 The negative feedback loop of this relationship is shown in Figure 2. Railway transportation has long been inferior to road transportation in the transportation of sporadic goods. The increase in road freight volume brought about by economic development will affect the demand for railway freight. Figure 6Similarly, industrial output value and regional GDP will lead to an increase in road freight volume; the third closed-loop growth relationship formed by regional GDP, railway fixed asset investment, and railway freight capacity, and the growth of railway freight demand, if the railway resource supply is insufficient, the second obstacle relationship of regional GDP can be described by a comprehensive loop, such as Figure 7 As shown in the figure, the negative upper and positive lower feedback loop indicates that with the growth of regional GDP, railway fixed investment will also increase. The accelerated railway construction will promote the improvement of railway freight capacity and the increase of regional material circulation, which will promote economic development to a certain extent. At the same time, the high demand for railway freight may lead to insufficient railway cargo supply, resulting in waste of resources and affecting economic development.

[0071] Step S102: establishing a system dynamics flow diagram of local railway construction projects and local economic benefits based on the causal relationship between variable elements; wherein the system dynamics flow diagram includes the dynamic process and interaction relationship between regional gross national product, railway freight demand, and railway freight capacity;

[0072] In one embodiment, Figure 8 As shown in Figure 2, a system dynamics flow diagram is constructed based on the dynamic processes and interactions between regional GDP, railway freight demand, and railway freight capacity. It is important to note that in this flow diagram, both local asset investment and railway fixed asset investment have an impact on railway freight capacity. Therefore, it is applicable to railways in different regions. In this system dynamics flow diagram, factors that hinder regional GDP related to local railways are included. Accelerated railway construction will promote railway freight capacity, increase regional material circulation, and, to a certain extent, promote regional economic development. The difference in freight volume represents the adverse impact on economic development when the actual railway freight supply cannot meet railway freight demand. By integrating positive and negative feedback effects, the analysis can be more comprehensive and accurate, providing more accurate theoretical reference and decision support.

[0073] Step S103: Establishing a system dynamics model based on the system dynamics flow diagram and corresponding statistical data of each variable element;

[0074] In one embodiment, the system dynamics model can be established using a formula editor, and the system dynamics equations include:

[0075] d(regional GDP) / dt = growth of regional GDP - resistance of regional GDP;

[0076] Wherein, the hinderance of regional GDP = the growth of regional GDP * the hinderance coefficient of regional GDP * (actual railway freight volume / freight volume difference);

[0077] Volume difference = railway freight capacity - railway freight demand;

[0078] Railway freight demand = 0.1 * de l ay (highway freight volume, the delay time for the increase in highway freight volume to affect railway freight volume) - (railway freight capacity + industrial output value * industrial output value coefficient) * railway freight growth coefficient;

[0079] Actual railway freight volume = railway freight coefficient (time()) * industrial output value;

[0080] Highway freight volume = industrial output value * highway freight coefficient (time());

[0081] Industrial output value = regional gross national product * industrial output value proportion;

[0082] d(railway freight capacity) / dt = increase in railway freight capacity - decrease in railway freight capacity;

[0083] The growth of railway freight capacity = the growth coefficient of railway freight capacity * (railway freight capacity + (investment delay + railway fixed asset investment) * investment conversion rate);

[0084] Reduction in railway freight capacity = Increase in railway freight capacity * de l ay (delay in reducing railway freight capacity, delay in depreciation of railway equipment and facilities);

[0085] Local asset investment = local asset investment amount (time());

[0086] Investment delay = de l ay1 (the delay time from local asset investment, fixed asset investment to the improvement of railway freight capacity).

[0087] In one embodiment, the coefficients and parameters, i.e., the variable elements, in the system dynamics model are determined using statistical data. In this invention, the statistical data refers to the collection of parameters such as the regional gross domestic product (GDP) of the local railway location over the years. A table function is established using this statistical data. The table function collects, organizes, calculates, and analyzes relevant data on a research object through statistics, thereby providing a quantitative description of the statistical object's scale, development speed, and degree of change, thereby providing a research method for evaluating the system level. Sufficient data provides more convincing and reliable explanations. Furthermore, methods such as linear fitting can be used to select a suitable fitting equation between the parameters in the table function using the data in the table function to obtain the coefficients required for the equation and obtain the correlation value.

[0088] In one embodiment, missing values, outliers, etc. in statistical data are processed by interpolation. Interpolation is a mathematical method for estimating information of unknown points using information of known points. For table functions, you can choose no interpolation, step interpolation, linear interpolation, spline interpolation, and approximate interpolation. For relevant national economic indicator data collected with missing values, linear interpolation is used, that is, the interpolation function is an interpolation method of a first-order polynomial. Outliers are regarded as missing values ​​and are handled by the missing value processing method.

[0089] Step S104: Analyze the impact of local railway construction projects on local economic benefits based on the simulated operation data of the system dynamics model.

[0090] In one implementation, a simulation based on a system dynamics model generates a simulated value for regional GDP. By comparing the simulated values ​​of regional GDP under identical conditions, without and with local railway construction, the impact of the local railway construction project on local economic benefits is analyzed. Specifically, the model generates simulated values ​​for regional GDP and other data for each year. By comparing GDP before and after the railway is built, the railway's impact on local economic development is analyzed. It should be understood that this model is based on reality and does not seek an "optimal solution." Instead, it seeks opportunities and pathways to improve the system from a holistic perspective, exploring opportunities for coordinated development of railway freight and the economy.

[0091] In a specific example, consider the Wengma Railway, Guizhou's first self-built and self-operated local railway. Phase I construction began in September 2015 and officially entered the dynamic acceptance phase in January 2021. The total investment is nearly 5 billion yuan, and Phase II is expected to invest 15 billion yuan. The model has a time step of 1, and the simulation period is 2010-2035. Table functions are used, as shown in Table 1, which shows the collected data on relevant national economic indicators.

[0092]

[0093] Table 1

[0094] The year-on-year growth (%) of transportation, warehousing and postal services in the statistical bulletin is used to estimate railway fixed asset investment in the adjacent years. The average value is taken as fixed asset investment, and the value of this item in the model is 144.7.

[0095] The ratio of highway freight volume to industrial output value is used as the highway freight coefficient. The same is true for the railway freight coefficient. Construct their table functions: Highway freight coefficient = WITH LOOKUP([(0,0)-(12,22)],(0,17.251),(1,16.240),(2,16.564),(3,20.530),(4,21.778),(5,19.207),(6,18.403),(7,17.964),(8,17.318)(9,12.770),(10,12.680),(11,13.014),(12,15.996)); Railway freight coefficient = WITH LOOKUP([(0,0)-(12,5)],(0,4.389),(1,3.196),(2,2.453),(3,2.065),(4,1.764),(5,1. 424),(6,1.261),(7,1.062),(8,1.001)(9,0.925),(10,0.926),(11,1.062),(12,1.215));

[0096] Regarding data fitting, take regional GDP as an example:

[0097] like Figure 9 As shown, since the model running time starts from 0, the horizontal axis of the fitting function also starts from 0, 0 corresponds to 2010, 1 corresponds to 2011, and so on. The linear fitting of the function is good, and the slope of 1370.19 is taken as the growth of the gross domestic product;

[0098] The ratio of industrial output value to gross national product is calculated to obtain the proportion of industrial output value. The results of fitting with the data from 2010 to 2021 are as follows: Figure 10 As shown, we can obtain: industrial output value ratio = 0.35042 + 0.05412 / (1 + exp ((time () - 5.72888) / 1.43417));

[0099] There are many other ways to determine the parameters of the system dynamics model, such as relying on empirical methods combined with repeated debugging of the model to determine it experimentally or referring to the values ​​of similar parameters in the literature. The remaining parameters of this model are finally determined as shown in Table 2 below:

[0100]

[0101]

[0102] Table 2 simulates the results based on the finalized model and converts the results into the following:

[0103]

[0104] Table 3

[0105] Since the regional GDP growth rate used was obtained by fitting a function using data from 10 to 22 years, and the regional GDP barrier was added to the model, the simulation results differed from the actual results. Furthermore, since a delay function was set for local railway investment, the benefits of the 15-year investment would only appear after a period of lag. The simulation results show that the construction of the railway will bring an increase of approximately 8 billion yuan to GDP in 2035.

[0106] Based on the above steps S101-S104, the embodiment of the present invention establishes a dynamic model based on the characteristics of local railways and system dynamics, and explores the coordinated development of local railway freight and economy from the perspective of overall dynamic changes. The scheme of the present invention can enable railway enterprises and governments to fully and accurately grasp the development of regional railways, analyze positive feedback and negative feedback through information accumulation and feedback, and provide theoretical reference and decision support for relevant decision-making departments; the process of establishing the model is based on the historical statistical data of the location of the local railway and the characteristics of the matching area. Therefore, this modeling technology scheme is applicable to regions with different economic development levels, and the established system dynamics model can simulate the operating conditions of the system within a certain period of time, and study solutions or measures to improve the system; in the modeling process, starting with local railways, the relationship between railway freight volume, freight capacity and regional economic development is studied, and the dynamic change trend of the impact of local railways on the regional economy during regional development can be predicted. The prediction results can be used to reversely regulate planning schemes to optimize regional economic development.

[0107] It should be pointed out that although the various steps in the above embodiments are described in a specific order, those skilled in the art will understand that in order to achieve the effects of the present invention, different steps do not have to be performed in such an order. They can be performed simultaneously (in parallel) or in other orders. These changes are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0108] Furthermore, the present invention also provides a computer-readable storage medium. In a computer-readable storage medium embodiment according to the present invention, the computer-readable storage medium can be configured to store a program for executing the above-mentioned method embodiment, and the program can be loaded and run by a processor to implement the above-mentioned method. For ease of explanation, only the parts related to the embodiment of the present invention are shown. For specific technical details not disclosed, please refer to the method part of the embodiment of the present invention. The computer-readable storage medium can be a storage device formed by various electronic devices. Optionally, the computer-readable storage medium in the embodiment of the present invention is a non-transitory computer-readable storage medium.

[0109] Furthermore, it should be understood that since the setting of each module is only for the purpose of illustrating the functional modules of the device of the present invention, the physical devices corresponding to these modules can be the processor itself, or a part of the software in the processor, a part of the hardware, or a part of the combination of software and hardware. Therefore, the number of each module in the figure is only schematic. It will be understood by those skilled in the art that the various modules in the system can be adaptively split or merged. Such splitting or merging of specific modules will not cause the technical solution to deviate from the principle of the present invention. Therefore, the technical solutions after splitting or merging will fall within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0110] It should be understood that various parts of the present invention can be implemented using hardware, software, firmware, or a combination thereof. In the above-described embodiments, multiple steps or methods can be implemented using software or firmware stored in a memory and executed by a suitable instruction execution system. For example, if implemented using hardware, as in another embodiment, any one of the following technologies known in the art or a combination thereof can be used: a discrete logic circuit having a logic gate circuit for implementing a logic function on a data signal, an application-specific integrated circuit having a suitable combination of logic gate circuits, a programmable gate array (PGA), a field programmable gate array (FPGA), etc.

[0111] Throughout this specification, reference to terms such as "one embodiment," "some embodiments," "examples," "specific examples," or "some examples" means that a specific feature, structure, material, or characteristic described in conjunction with that embodiment or example is included in at least one embodiment or example of the present invention. In this specification, schematic representations of the above terms do not necessarily refer to the same embodiment or example. Furthermore, the specific features, structures, materials, or characteristics described may be combined in any suitable manner in any one or more embodiments or examples.

[0112] Furthermore, the terms "first" and "second" are used for descriptive purposes only and should not be construed as indicating or implying relative importance or implicitly specifying the number of the technical features being referred to. Thus, a feature defined as "first" or "second" may explicitly or implicitly include at least one such feature. In the description of the present invention, "plurality" means at least two, such as two, three, etc., unless otherwise specifically defined.

[0113] Although the embodiments of the present invention have been shown and described above, it will be understood that the above embodiments are illustrative and are not to be construed as limitations on the present invention. A person skilled in the art may change, modify, replace and modify the above embodiments within the scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for evaluating the economic benefits of a local railway construction project, characterized in that: include: Determine the variable elements that are interconnected and influence the local railway construction projects and the local economic benefits, as well as the causal relationship between the variable elements; wherein the variable elements include local asset investment, railway fixed asset investment, regional gross national economic product and industrial output value; A system dynamics flow diagram of local railway construction projects and local economic benefits is established based on the causal relationship between the variable elements; wherein the system dynamics flow diagram includes the dynamic process and the functional relationship between the regional gross national economic product, the railway freight demand and the railway freight capacity; Establishing a system dynamics model according to the system dynamics flow diagram and corresponding statistical data of each variable element; The impact of local railway construction projects on local economic benefits is analyzed based on the simulated operation data of the system dynamics model.

2. A method for evaluating the economic benefits of a local railway construction project according to claim 1, characterized in that: The causal relationship between the variable elements includes: The first closed-loop growth relationship is formed by the regional GDP, industrial output value and railway freight demand; The second closed-loop growth relationship formed by the reform of railway freight, the demand for railway freight and the capacity of railway freight; The third closed-loop growth relationship formed by regional GDP, railway fixed asset investment, and railway freight capacity; The growth of road freight volume is the first obstacle to the demand for rail freight; The growth in demand for railway freight will be a second obstacle to the regional GDP if the railway resources are insufficient.

3. The method for evaluating the economic benefits of a local railway construction project according to claim 1, characterized in that: The system dynamics model includes the following equations: The change in regional GDP = the growth of regional GDP - the resistance of regional GDP; Change in railway freight capacity = increase in railway freight capacity - decrease in railway freight capacity; Among them, a model is established between the change in the regional gross national economic product and the railway freight capacity through the railway freight demand.

4. A method for evaluating the economic benefits of a local railway construction project according to claim 3, characterized in that: A model is established between the change in the regional gross national economic product and the railway freight capacity through railway freight demand, including: The obstacle of regional GDP = the growth of regional GDP * the obstacle coefficient of regional GDP * (actual railway freight volume / volume difference); Volume difference = railway freight capacity - railway freight demand; Railway freight demand = 0.1 * delay time for the increase in road freight volume to affect railway freight volume - (railway freight capacity + industrial output value * industrial output value coefficient) * railway freight growth coefficient; Actual railway freight volume = railway freight coefficient * industrial output value; Highway freight volume = industrial output value * highway freight coefficient; Industrial output value = regional gross national product * industrial output value ratio; The growth of railway freight capacity = the growth coefficient of railway freight capacity * (railway freight capacity + (investment delay + railway fixed asset investment + local asset investment) * investment conversion rate); The reduction of railway freight capacity = the increase of railway freight capacity * the delay time of the reduction of railway freight capacity; Local asset investment = local asset investment amount; Investment delay = the delay time from local asset investment and railway fixed asset investment to the improvement of railway freight capacity.

5. A method for evaluating the economic benefits of a local railway construction project according to claim 4, characterized in that: The highway freight coefficient is the ratio of highway freight volume to industrial output value; The railway freight coefficient is the ratio of railway freight volume to industrial output value; The industrial output value proportion is the ratio of the industrial output value to the gross national product of the region; wherein the industrial output value is the industrial output value of the secondary industry in the region.

6. A method for evaluating the economic benefits of a local railway construction project according to claim 5, characterized in that: The method further comprises: obtaining the growth amount of the gross national product and the proportion of the industrial output value by linear fitting.

7. A method for evaluating the economic benefits of a local railway construction project according to claim 1, characterized in that: The method further comprises: Establishing corresponding table functions based on statistical data; wherein the statistical data includes historically known variable elements; Unknown variable elements in the system dynamics model are determined based on the table function.

8. A method for evaluating the economic benefits of a local railway construction project according to claim 7, characterized in that: The method further comprises: performing interpolation processing on missing values ​​and abnormal values ​​in the statistically historically known variable elements.

9. A method for evaluating the economic benefits of a local railway construction project according to claim 7, characterized in that: The method further comprises: repeatedly debugging the system dynamics model through an empirical method to determine the values ​​of variable elements.

10. A method for evaluating the economic benefits of a local railway construction project according to any one of claims 1 to 9, characterized in that: The analysis of the impact of local railway construction projects on local economic benefits based on the simulated operation data of the system dynamics model includes: Based on the simulation operation of the system dynamics model, the simulated value of regional gross national economic product is obtained; By comparing the simulated values ​​of regional GDP without and with local railway construction projects under the same conditions, the impact of the local railway construction project on local economic benefits is analyzed.

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