Operation effect evaluation method and system based on electric power capacity market evaluation indexes

Abstract

The invention belongs to the field of electric power systems, and discloses an operation effect evaluation method and system based on an electric power capacity market evaluation index, and the method comprises the steps: obtaining the operation data of an electric power capacity market, and calculating the capacity market evaluation index based on the operation data; subjective weighting is carried out on the capacity market index, and the subjective weight of the evaluation index is calculated; carrying out objective evaluation on the capacity market indexes, and determining objective weights of the evaluation indexes; and based on the subjective weight and the objective weight of the evaluation index, carrying out capacity market operation effect comprehensive evaluation. According to the method, capacity market multi-dimensional evaluation indexes are comprehensively provided, the comprehensive evaluation method is suitable for provinces which have developed power spot market transactions in China, an evaluation method can be provided for capacity market mechanism design verification and operation effect analysis, and favorable reference is provided for promotion of capacity market landing construction.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to the field of power systems, and in particular to a method and system for evaluating operational effectiveness based on power capacity market evaluation indicators. Background Technology

[0002] The construction of the electricity spot market has entered a stage of full acceleration. Policy subsidies for various types of resources are gradually being phased out. There is an urgent need to build a sound electricity market system adapted to the new power system in order to clarify the composition of power generation costs. Therefore, it is particularly necessary to build a capacity market to create a fixed cost recovery channel for power generation resources.

[0003] Currently, domestic scholars have conducted extensive research on capacity market mechanism design, including market trading methods, credible capacity assessment, and capacity market optimization and clearing calculations. However, there is a lack of research on capacity market evaluation systems, making it difficult to assess the rationality of market mechanism design and the operational effectiveness of capacity markets. At present, the evaluation of electricity market operational effectiveness mainly employs subjective and objective evaluation methods. Subjective evaluation methods rely on expert judgment, which is highly subjective, while objective evaluation methods focus more on the volatility of the data itself. However, objective evaluation methods are overly reliant on data. Considering that capacity markets have not yet been established, there is a lack of mature market data samples, and objective evaluation methods are difficult to predict dynamic risks. Therefore, it is necessary to propose an evaluation method suitable for capacity markets. Summary of the Invention

[0004] The purpose of this invention is to provide a method and system for evaluating operational effectiveness based on power capacity market evaluation indicators, to establish a multi-dimensional evaluation indicator system for the capacity market, and to use a comprehensive evaluation method to address the limitations of subjective and objective evaluation methods.

[0005] To achieve the above objectives, the present invention adopts the following technical solution: In a first aspect, the present invention provides a method for evaluating operational effectiveness based on electricity capacity market evaluation indicators, including: Obtain operational data from the electricity capacity market and calculate capacity market evaluation indicators based on the operational data; Subjective weighting is applied to capacity market indicators, and the subjective weights of evaluation indicators are calculated. Objectively evaluate market capacity indicators and determine the objective weights of these indicators; A comprehensive evaluation of the operational effectiveness of the capacity market is conducted based on the subjective and objective weights of the evaluation indicators.

[0006] Furthermore, the capacity market evaluation indicators include: The capacity market evaluation indicators include safety indicators, economic indicators, green indicators, and market operation indicators. Safety indicators include reliability indicators and the capacity market supply-demand ratio. Economic indicators include the increase in user-side electricity prices, total cost of capacity purchase, and social welfare of the capacity market. Green indicators include the proportion of clean energy capacity won in bids, the proportion of non-fossil energy capacity won in bids, and carbon emissions. Market operation indicators include capacity market participation rate, fixed cost recovery rate of market participants, revenue dispersion of market participants, ratio of capacity price to net cost of reference units, alignment rate of user-side capacity cost ratio to fixed cost ratio, market participant bid limit rate, capacity price limit rate, industry concentration, system surplus supply index, and system capacity retention rate.

[0007] Furthermore, the capacity market evaluation indicators calculated based on operational data include: Reliability indicators

[0008]

[0009] In the formula: Indicates the number of days for reliability assessment; For the first Peak load probability function; For the first Available capacity value in the probability function of total available capacity of generator units during peak load period; Capacity market supply and demand ratio

[0010]

[0011] In the formula: For the first Reliable capacity of each generator set; This represents the total number of generator sets in the power system. To meet the target capacity requirements of the power system; User-side electricity price increase

[0012]

[0013] In the formula: To establish a capacity market and set user-side electricity prices; This refers to the user-side electricity price when only an electricity market exists. Total cost of purchasing capacity

[0014]

[0015] In the formula: This represents the total winning bid capacity in the capacity market. To clear prices in the capacity market; capacity market social welfare

[0016] In the formula: Let be the price of the i-th segment of the capacity demand curve; Let be the winning bid capacity for the i-th segment of the capacity demand curve; Number of segments for the capacity demand curve; The market price for unit j capacity; For unit j, to win a capacity bid in the capacity market; Clean energy capacity winning bid ratio

[0017]

[0018] In the formula: For the first Total capacity of energy units cleared out; This represents the total number of clean energy categories; Non-fossil energy capacity share

[0019]

[0020] In the formula: For the first Total capacity of non-fossil energy units cleared out; This represents the total number of non-fossil energy categories; carbon emissions

[0021]

[0022] In the formula: For the first Carbon emission coefficient of this type of unit; This represents the total number of categories of power generation entities in the capacity market; For the first The estimated annual power generation of this type of unit; Capacity Market Participation

[0023]

[0024] In the formula: For the unit The installed capacity declared in the capacity market; The total number of market entities participating in the capacity market application; The total installed capacity of all market participants in the power system; Market entity fixed cost recovery rate

[0025]

[0026]

[0027] In the formula: For the first Class 1 Fixed cost recovery rate for each power generation entity ; For the first Class 1 Annual capacity market revenue of individual power generation entities; For the first Class 1 Annual fixed costs of each power generation entity; For the first Total number of power generation entities of this type; Dispersion of returns among market participants in capacity market

[0028]

[0029]

[0030]

[0031]

[0032] In the formula: For the first Class 1 Electricity market revenue of individual power generation entities; For the first Class 1 The total cost of a single power generation entity; For the first Class 1 Electricity market profitability of individual power generation entities , ; For the first The average market return rate of the type of entity; This represents the average rate of return in the overall electricity market. Capacity price to reference unit net cost ratio

[0033]

[0034]

[0035] In the formula: For reference unit net cost; For reference, the unit's electricity market revenue is projected; For reference, the ancillary services market is projected to generate revenue; User-side capacity cost ratio and fixed cost ratio alignment

[0036]

[0037]

[0038]

[0039] In the formula: The proportion of electricity user capacity costs to total electricity costs; Total cost of electricity purchase for electricity users; For reference, the fixed cost of the unit; For reference, the total cost of the generating unit; This serves as a reference for the proportion of fixed costs to total costs for a generator unit. Market entity quotation rate

[0040]

[0041] In the formula: The number of market participants whose bids reach the capacity market price limit; The total number of participants in the capacity market; Capacity-price-reach-limit rate

[0042]

[0043] In the formula: The number of times / years that the market price for capacity has reached its price ceiling; Total number of market simulations / number of years; Industry concentration

[0044]

[0045] In the formula: For the first in the capacity market The reliable capacity of the power plants that won the bids; The total number of power plants that won bids in the capacity market; The total reliable capacity of power plants that won bids in the capacity market; System surplus supply index

[0046]

[0047]

[0048] In the formula: For the first in the capacity market The surplus supply index of power plants; For the first in the capacity market The reliable capacity of the power plants that won the bids; System capacity retention rate

[0049]

[0050]

[0051] In the formula: For the first in the capacity market Capacity retention rate of each market entity; For the first in the capacity market Credible capacity not declared by any market entity; This represents the total number of power generation entities in the power system.

[0052] Furthermore, the subjective weighting of the capacity market indicator and the calculation of the subjective weight of the evaluation indicator include: The weights of the indicators are calculated using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), the priority weight of each element at each level to a certain element at the previous level is calculated using the judgment matrix, and the final weight of the overall objective is calculated using a weighted method. Compare each evaluation indicator at the same level in pairs, and form a judgment matrix based on the importance of each indicator to the higher-level indicators. The weights of each indicator are formed by calculating the average value of each row based on the judgment matrix of each indicator. The random consistency ratio is calculated using the largest eigenvalue of the judgment matrix and the weight vector. If the parameter is less than the preset value, the consistency test is considered to have passed and the indicator weights are reasonable. Based on the weights of indicators at each level, the comprehensive subjective weight of the indicators to the overall goal is calculated through chain multiplication of the hierarchical weights.

[0053] Furthermore, the objective evaluation of the capacity market indicators and the determination of the objective weights of the evaluation indicators include: The entropy weight method is used to objectively evaluate market capacity indicators. Determine the nature of the indicators, standardize the raw data, and convert all indicator values ​​to the same range; Calculate the weight of each sample data under each indicator to determine the probability matrix; Based on the entropy formula, calculate the information entropy value and information utility value of each indicator; The weights of all indicators are calculated by normalizing the information utility values ​​of each indicator.

[0054] Furthermore, the calculation of the information entropy value and information utility value of each indicator includes:

[0055]

[0056] In the formula: For the first The information entropy value of each indicator; For the first The first indicator in the The proportion in each sample; The number of samples; For the first The information utility value of each indicator.

[0057] Furthermore, the comprehensive evaluation of capacity market operation effectiveness based on the subjective and objective weights of evaluation indicators includes: When evaluating the operational effectiveness of capacity markets, a comprehensive assessment combining subjective and objective methods is employed. Based on the capacity market scenario design and simulation operation data, and combined with the calculation formulas of various evaluation indicators of the capacity market, each indicator is scored and normalized to obtain sample data of the evaluation indicator system. At the same time, combined with subjective weights and objective weights, the comprehensive weight coefficient of the evaluation indicators is determined by multiplication synthesis method. The comprehensive score of the capacity market is calculated by weighted average of the comprehensive weight coefficient and the indicator scoring results.

[0058] Secondly, the present invention provides an operational performance evaluation system based on electricity capacity market evaluation indicators, comprising: The rating indicator acquisition module is used to acquire operational data of the electricity capacity market and calculate capacity market evaluation indicators based on the operational data. The subjective weight acquisition module is used to subjectively assign weights to capacity market indicators and calculate the subjective weights of evaluation indicators. The objective weight acquisition module is used to objectively evaluate capacity market indicators and determine the objective weights of the evaluation indicators. The evaluation module is used to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the operational effectiveness of the capacity market based on the subjective and objective weights of the evaluation indicators.

[0059] Thirdly, the present invention provides a computer device, including a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the processor executes the computer program to implement the steps of the operation performance evaluation method based on the power capacity market evaluation index.

[0060] Fourthly, the present invention provides a computer-readable storage medium storing a computer program that, when executed by a processor, implements the steps of the operation performance evaluation method based on electricity capacity market evaluation indicators.

[0061] Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following technical effects: This invention comprehensively considers market development goals and indicator system construction principles, and proposes capacity market evaluation indicators based on four dimensions: system security, economy, greenness, and market operation. It constructs a capacity market evaluation system and proposes the definition and calculation method of the evaluation indicators. Then, based on capacity market operation data, it uses the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to determine the subjective weight coefficients of the capacity market and the entropy weight method to calculate the objective weight coefficients. Combining the subjective and objective weight coefficients, it determines the comprehensive weight of the evaluation indicators. Finally, it calculates a comprehensive score based on a weighted average of the comprehensive weight coefficients and the capacity market evaluation indicator scores.

[0062] This invention, starting from the design objectives and operational effectiveness of the capacity market mechanism, establishes a multi-dimensional evaluation index system and adopts a comprehensive evaluation method combining subjective and objective approaches to fully evaluate and analyze the operational effectiveness of the capacity market. This avoids the problems of subjective judgments or over-reliance on operational data in capacity market assessments. The capacity market evaluation results can support power operators in analyzing the operational effectiveness of the capacity market mechanism during simulation and implementation, identifying potential hidden problems in the design of the capacity market mechanism. The power capacity market operational effectiveness evaluation method proposed in this invention is applicable to provinces in my country that have already implemented electricity spot market transactions and can provide a valuable reference for promoting the implementation and construction of capacity markets. Attached Figure Description

[0063] Figure 1 This is a flowchart of the present invention.

[0064] Figure 2 This is the capacity market evaluation index system proposed in this invention. Detailed Implementation

[0065] The present invention will be further described below with reference to the accompanying drawings: Example 1: This invention provides a method for evaluating operational effectiveness based on electricity capacity market evaluation indicators, including: Obtain operational data from the electricity capacity market and calculate capacity market evaluation indicators based on the operational data; Subjective weighting is applied to capacity market indicators, and the subjective weights of evaluation indicators are calculated. Objectively evaluate market capacity indicators and determine the objective weights of these indicators; A comprehensive evaluation of the operational effectiveness of the capacity market is conducted based on the subjective and objective weights of the evaluation indicators.

[0066] This invention proposes a comprehensive set of evaluation indicators for capacity markets. The integrated evaluation method is applicable to provinces in my country that have already launched electricity spot market transactions. It can provide evaluation methods for capacity market mechanism design verification and operational effect analysis, and provide a valuable reference for promoting the implementation and construction of capacity markets.

[0067] Example 2: This invention provides a method for evaluating operational effectiveness based on electricity capacity market evaluation indicators, including: Step 1: Based on the construction goals and development needs of the capacity market, a three-level evaluation index system for the capacity market is constructed from four aspects: security, greenness, economy, and market operation. The calculation method of the evaluation index is proposed. Step 2: Use the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to subjectively assign weights to the capacity market indicators and calculate the subjective weights of the evaluation indicators; Step 3: Use the entropy weight method to objectively evaluate the sample data of capacity market indicators and determine the objective weights of the evaluation indicators; Step 4: Based on the subjective and objective weights of the evaluation indicators, conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the capacity market operation effectiveness.

[0068] Step 1 specifically involves: 1. Based on the operation of the capacity market, construct an evaluation index system for the capacity market from four aspects: safety, economy, greenness, and market operation.

[0069] Capacity market security is reflected in meeting the capacity demands of electricity users and ensuring the reliability of power supply. Therefore, security indicators include reliability indicators and the supply-demand ratio of the capacity market. The economics of the capacity market focuses on the economic benefits of its operation and its impact on electricity prices for users, including user-side electricity price increases, total capacity purchase costs, and social welfare related to the capacity market. New energy units are an important component of the capacity market, and their reliable capacity can also play a role in ensuring power supply. Green indicators include the proportion of clean energy capacity won in bidding, the proportion of non-fossil energy capacity won in bidding, and carbon emissions. Market operation indicators are divided into three aspects: competitive incentives, operational effectiveness, and risk management. Indicators for evaluating competitive incentives include capacity market participation rate, fixed cost recovery rate of market participants, and profit dispersion of market participants. Indicators for evaluating operational effectiveness include the ratio of capacity price to the marginal cost of reference units and the alignment rate between the user-side capacity cost ratio and the fixed cost ratio. Indicators for evaluating risk management include the market participant bid-to-limit rate, capacity price-to-limit rate, industry concentration, surplus supply index, and capacity retention rate.

[0070] In summary, the primary indicator of the capacity market evaluation index system is the operational effectiveness of the capacity market, and the secondary indicators are: safety, economy, greenness, and market operation. It includes 18 tertiary indicators: reliability, capacity market supply-demand ratio, user-side electricity price increase, total cost of capacity purchase, social welfare of the capacity market, proportion of clean energy winning bids, proportion of non-fossil energy winning bids, carbon emissions, capacity market participation rate, fixed cost recovery rate of market participants, revenue dispersion of market participants, ratio of capacity price to net cost of reference units, alignment rate of user-side capacity cost ratio to fixed cost ratio, market participant bid-to-limit rate, capacity price-to-limit rate, industry concentration, system surplus supply index, and system capacity retention rate.

[0071] 2. A calculation method is proposed for the three-level indicators of the capacity market evaluation index system.

[0072] Reliability indicators

[0073] Reliability indicators refer to the ability of a power system's generating resources to meet the power demand of the power system's load. The probability-based reliability indicator Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) is usually used to assess system reliability.

[0074]

[0075] In the formula: Indicates the number of days for reliability assessment; For the first Peak load probability function; For the first Available capacity values ​​in the probability function of total available capacity of generator units during peak load periods.

[0076] Capacity market supply and demand ratio

[0077] The capacity market supply-demand ratio is the ratio of the total credible capacity of the main power generation entities in the system to the target capacity demand of the system, which quantitatively analyzes the degree of capacity shortage in the power system.

[0078]

[0079] In the formula: For the first Reliable capacity of each generator set; This represents the total number of generator sets in the power system. This is to meet the target capacity requirements of the power system.

[0080] User-side electricity price increase

[0081] The capacity market and the electricity market complement each other. The electricity market recovers the operating costs from the generation costs, while the capacity market recovers the fixed costs. The costs of the capacity market need to be passed on to the user side, which will lead to an increase in the user-side electricity price. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the increase in user-side electricity price caused by the capacity market.

[0082]

[0083] In the formula: To establish a capacity market and set user-side electricity prices; This refers to the user-side electricity price when only an electricity market exists.

[0084] Total cost of purchasing capacity

[0085] The total cost of purchasing capacity is also an important indicator of the economic efficiency of the capacity market. From an economic perspective, the lower the purchase cost, the more economical it is.

[0086]

[0087] In the formula: This represents the total winning bid capacity in the capacity market. To clear prices in the capacity market.

[0088] capacity market social welfare The capacity market optimizes and clears its market with the goal of maximizing social welfare. Social welfare is the core indicator for measuring the economic efficiency of the capacity market; the greater the social welfare, the better the economic efficiency of the capacity market.

[0089]

[0090] In the formula: Let be the price of the i-th segment of the capacity demand curve; Let be the winning bid capacity for the i-th segment of the capacity demand curve; Number of segments for the capacity demand curve; The market price for unit j capacity; Unit j won a bid for capacity in the capacity market.

[0091] Clean energy capacity winning bid ratio

[0092] Clean energy mainly refers to renewable energy sources such as wind power, photovoltaic power, and hydropower. The proportion of clean energy capacity won in the bidding is the ratio of the winning capacity of the aforementioned renewable energy sources in the capacity market to the total clearing capacity in the capacity market.

[0093]

[0094] In the formula: For the first Total capacity of energy units cleared out; This represents the total number of clean energy categories.

[0095] Non-fossil energy capacity share

[0096] In addition to clean energy, the capacity market also includes non-fossil energy resources such as energy storage and virtual power plants. The proportion of non-fossil energy winning bids is also one of the evaluation indicators of greenness. The proportion of non-fossil energy winning bids is the ratio of the winning bids for non-fossil energy in the capacity market to the total clearing volume of the capacity market.

[0097]

[0098] In the formula: For the first Total capacity of non-fossil energy units cleared out; This represents the total number of non-fossil energy categories.

[0099] carbon emissions

[0100] Carbon emissions are a common evaluation indicator for the greenness of power systems. The capacity market includes various market entities and resources. Carbon emissions are the sum of carbon emissions of all resource entities. The carbon emissions of each entity are the product of the carbon emission coefficient and the expected total annual power generation of the power generation entity.

[0101]

[0102] In the formula: For the first Carbon emission coefficient of this type of unit; This represents the total number of categories of power generation entities in the capacity market; For the first The estimated annual power generation of this type of unit.

[0103] Capacity Market Participation

[0104] Power generators can voluntarily choose whether to participate in the capacity market. The better the incentive effect of the capacity market, the higher the benefits for power generators, and the higher their participation rate in the capacity market. Therefore, the participation rate in the capacity market can reflect the competitive incentive of the capacity market.

[0105]

[0106] In the formula: For the unit The installed capacity declared in the capacity market; The total number of market entities participating in the capacity market application; This refers to the total installed capacity of all market participants in the power system.

[0107] Market entity fixed cost recovery rate

[0108] The capacity market focuses on recovering the fixed costs of power generation entities. The fixed cost recovery rate is a key factor influencing whether market participants choose to participate in the capacity market, and therefore serves as one of the evaluation indicators for competitive incentives in the capacity market. Considering that power generation entities of the same type have similar cost structures and profit levels, and that the capacity market typically conducts a uniform credible capacity assessment for a single type of market participant, the fixed cost recovery rate of market participants is assessed according to unit type.

[0109]

[0110]

[0111] In the formula: For the first Class 1 Fixed cost recovery rate for each power generation entity ; For the first Class 1 Annual capacity market revenue of individual power generation entities; For the first Class 1 Annual fixed costs of each power generation entity; For the first Total number of power generation entities of this type.

[0112] Dispersion of returns among market participants in capacity market

[0113]

[0114]

[0115]

[0116]

[0117] In the formula: For the first Class 1 Electricity market revenue of individual power generation entities; For the first Class 1 The total cost of a single power generation entity; For the first Class 1 Electricity market profitability of individual power generation entities , ; For the first The average market return rate of the type of entity; This represents the average rate of return in the overall electricity market. Capacity price to reference unit net cost ratio

[0118]

[0119]

[0120] In the formula: For reference unit net cost; For reference, the unit's electricity market revenue is projected; For reference, the ancillary services market is projected to generate revenue; User-side capacity cost ratio and fixed cost ratio alignment

[0121] After the capacity market is established, power generation entities recover operating costs through the electricity market and fixed costs through the capacity market. Correspondingly, electricity users pay for electricity consumption in the electricity market and for capacity costs in the capacity market. By analyzing the correlation between the user-side capacity cost ratio and the fixed cost ratio, it is possible to effectively assess whether the formation of capacity market prices and the transmission of capacity market prices are reasonable.

[0122]

[0123]

[0124]

[0125] In the formula: The proportion of electricity user capacity costs to total electricity costs; Total cost of electricity purchase for electricity users; For reference, the fixed cost of the unit; For reference, the total cost of the generating unit; This is a reference figure for the proportion of fixed costs to total costs for a generator unit.

[0126] Market entity quotation rate

[0127] Since the capacity market allows market participants to submit their own bids, the rate at which market participants meet their bids serves as one of the risk management indicators. It can be used to assess the behavior of market participants and analyze the rationality of the capacity curve design.

[0128]

[0129] In the formula: The number of market participants whose bids reach the capacity market price limit; The total number of participants in the capacity market.

[0130] Capacity-price-reach-limit rate

[0131] To prevent excessively high market prices, capacity markets typically incorporate a price cap when designing capacity demand-price curves. Evaluating the capacity price cap rate helps in assessing and improving the design of these curves. The capacity price cap rate can be calculated through multiple simulations or by comparing and analyzing years of capacity market performance. The formula is as follows.

[0132]

[0133] In the formula: The number of times / years that the market price for capacity has reached its price ceiling; Total number of simulations of the capacity market / number of years.

[0134] Industry concentration

[0135] The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) is used to assess industry concentration in capacity markets, calculate the market share of participating entities, and determine whether market monopolies exist. Since the capacity market benchmark is credible capacity, all industry concentration indicators must be calculated using credible capacity.

[0136]

[0137] In the formula: For the first in the capacity market The reliable capacity of the power plants that won the bids; The total number of power plants that won bids in the capacity market; This represents the total reliable capacity of power plants that have won bids in the capacity market.

[0138] System surplus supply index

[0139] The system's residual supply index is used to determine the impact of a supplier's exit from a market on market supply and demand. It also uses reliable capacity to calculate capacity market share. The residual supply index is the ratio of the sum of the market shares of all suppliers except those whose market share is being assessed, to total demand.

[0140]

[0141]

[0142] In the formula: For the first in the capacity market The surplus supply index of power plants; For the first in the capacity market The reliable capacity of the power plant that won the bid. System capacity retention rate

[0143] The system capacity retention rate is used to assess the capacity retention rate of each market participant when submitting capacity market applications. This assessment is used to evaluate the market power behavior of market participants and to evaluate capacity market risk prevention and control.

[0144]

[0145]

[0146] In the formula: For the first in the capacity market Capacity retention rate of each market entity; For the first in the capacity market Credible capacity not declared by any market entity; This represents the total number of power generation entities in the power system.

[0147] Step 2 specifically involves: The capacity market evaluation index system has a clear hierarchical structure, making it suitable for calculating index weights using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The AHP decomposes the problem to be evaluated into different hierarchical structures, uses a judgment matrix to calculate the priority weight of each element at each level relative to an element at the previous level, and uses a weighted method to calculate the final weight of the overall objective.

[0148] Establish a tiered judgment matrix: Compare each evaluation indicator at the same level in pairs, and form a judgment matrix based on the importance of each indicator to the higher-level indicators.

[0149] Calculate indicator weights: Calculate the average value of each row based on the judgment matrix of each indicator to form the indicator weights for each level.

[0150] Perform a weight consistency test: Calculate the random consistency ratio using the largest eigenvalue of the judgment matrix and the weight vector. If the parameter is less than 0.1, the consistency test is considered passed and the indicator weights are reasonable.

[0151] Based on the weights of each level of indicators, the comprehensive subjective weight of the three-level indicators to the overall goal is calculated through chain multiplication of the level weights.

[0152] Step 3 specifically involves: Entropy weighting is a typical objective evaluation method. It determines the dispersion of an indicator by calculating the entropy value of the data. The smaller the information entropy value, the greater the dispersion of the indicator, and the greater its impact on the overall evaluation; therefore, it should be assigned a higher weight. Entropy weighting mainly includes the following steps: Data standardization: Considering the different dimensions of the original data, determine the nature of the indicators, standardize the original data, and convert all indicator values ​​to the same range for easy comparison and calculation.

[0153] Calculate the weight of each indicator: Calculate the weight of each sample data under each indicator to determine the probability matrix.

[0154] Calculate information entropy: Based on the entropy formula, calculate the information entropy value and information utility value of each indicator.

[0155]

[0156]

[0157] In the formula: For the first The information entropy value of each indicator; For the first The first indicator in the The proportion in each sample; The number of samples; For the first The information utility value of each indicator.

[0158] Determine indicator weights: By normalizing the information utility values ​​of each indicator, the weights of all indicators can be calculated.

[0159] Step 4 specifically involves: The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) relies on expert judgment and may be highly subjective, while the entropy weight method is an objective weighting method that focuses more on the volatility of the data itself. Therefore, when evaluating the operational effectiveness of capacity markets, a combination of subjective and objective methods should be used for comprehensive evaluation.

[0160] Based on the capacity market scenario design and simulation operation data, and combined with the calculation formulas of various evaluation indicators of the capacity market, each indicator is scored and normalized to obtain sample data of the evaluation indicator system; at the same time, combined with the subjective and objective weights obtained in steps 2 and 3, the comprehensive weight coefficient of the evaluation indicators is determined by the multiplication synthesis method; finally, the capacity market is comprehensively evaluated by combining the indicator scores and weight coefficients.

[0161] In another embodiment of the present invention, an operational performance evaluation system based on electricity capacity market evaluation indicators is provided, which can be used to implement the above-mentioned operational performance evaluation method based on electricity capacity market evaluation indicators. Specifically, the system includes: The rating indicator acquisition module is used to acquire operational data of the electricity capacity market and calculate capacity market evaluation indicators based on the operational data. The subjective weight acquisition module is used to subjectively assign weights to capacity market indicators and calculate the subjective weights of evaluation indicators. The objective weight acquisition module is used to objectively evaluate capacity market indicators and determine the objective weights of the evaluation indicators. The evaluation module is used to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the operational effectiveness of the capacity market based on the subjective and objective weights of the evaluation indicators.

[0162] The module division in this embodiment of the invention is illustrative and represents only one logical functional division. In actual implementation, other division methods may be used. Furthermore, the functional modules in the various embodiments of the invention can be integrated into a single processor, exist as separate physical entities, or be integrated into a single module. The integrated modules described above can be implemented in hardware or as software functional modules.

[0163] In another embodiment of the present invention, a computer device is provided, comprising a processor and a memory. The memory stores a computer program, which includes program instructions. The processor executes the program instructions stored in the computer storage medium. The processor may be a Central Processing Unit (CPU), or other general-purpose processors, digital signal processors (DSPs), application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs), field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs), or other programmable logic devices, discrete gate or transistor logic devices, discrete hardware components, etc. It is the computing and control core of the terminal, suitable for implementing one or more instructions, specifically suitable for loading and executing one or more instructions from the computer storage medium to achieve corresponding method flows or corresponding functions. The processor described in this embodiment of the present invention can be used for operating a method for evaluating the operational effectiveness based on power capacity market evaluation indicators.

[0164] In another embodiment of the present invention, a storage medium is provided, specifically a computer-readable storage medium (Memory), which is a memory device in a computer device used to store programs and data. It is understood that the computer-readable storage medium here can include both the built-in storage medium in the computer device and extended storage media supported by the computer device. The computer-readable storage medium provides storage space that stores the terminal's operating system. Furthermore, the storage space also stores one or more instructions suitable for loading and execution by a processor. These instructions can be one or more computer programs (including program code). It should be noted that the computer-readable storage medium here can be high-speed RAM or non-volatile memory, such as at least one disk storage device. The processor can load and execute one or more instructions stored in the computer-readable storage medium to implement the corresponding steps of the operational performance evaluation method based on electricity capacity market evaluation indicators in the above embodiments.

[0165] Those skilled in the art will understand that embodiments of the present invention can be provided as methods, systems, or computer program products. Therefore, the present invention can take the form of a completely hardware embodiment, a completely software embodiment, or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Furthermore, the present invention can take the form of a computer program product embodied on one or more computer-usable storage media (including, but not limited to, disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, etc.) containing computer-usable program code.

[0166] This invention is described with reference to flowchart illustrations and / or block diagrams of methods, apparatus (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the invention. It will be understood that each block of the flowchart illustrations and / or block diagrams, and combinations of blocks in the flowchart illustrations and / or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions can be provided to a processor of a general-purpose computer, special-purpose computer, embedded processor, or other programmable data processing apparatus to produce a machine, such that the instructions, which execute via the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing apparatus, generate instructions for implementing the flowchart illustrations and / or block diagrams. Figure 1 One or more processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A device that provides the functions specified in one or more boxes.

[0167] These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable storage medium that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing device to function in a particular manner, such that the instructions stored in the computer-readable storage medium produce an article of manufacture including instruction means, which are implemented in a process Figure 1 One or more processes and / or boxes Figure 1 The function specified in one or more boxes.

[0168] These computer program instructions may also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing equipment to cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer or other programmable equipment to produce a computer-implemented process, thereby providing instructions that execute on the computer or other programmable equipment for implementing the process. Figure 1 One or more processes and / or boxes Figure 1 The steps of the function specified in one or more boxes.

[0169] Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention and not to limit it. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the above embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that modifications or equivalent substitutions can still be made to the specific implementation of the present invention. Any modifications or equivalent substitutions that do not depart from the spirit and scope of the present invention should be covered within the scope of protection of the claims of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for evaluating operational effectiveness based on electricity capacity market evaluation indicators, characterized in that, include: Obtain operational data from the electricity capacity market and calculate capacity market evaluation indicators based on the operational data; Subjective weighting is applied to capacity market indicators, and the subjective weights of evaluation indicators are calculated. Objectively evaluate market capacity indicators and determine the objective weights of these indicators; A comprehensive evaluation of the operational effectiveness of the capacity market is conducted based on the subjective and objective weights of the evaluation indicators.

2. The method for evaluating operational effectiveness based on electricity capacity market evaluation indicators according to claim 1, characterized in that, The capacity market evaluation indicators include: The capacity market evaluation indicators include safety indicators, economic indicators, green indicators, and market operation indicators. Safety indicators include reliability indicators and the capacity market supply-demand ratio. Economic indicators include the increase in user-side electricity prices, total cost of capacity purchase, and social welfare of the capacity market. Green indicators include the proportion of clean energy capacity won in bids, the proportion of non-fossil energy capacity won in bids, and carbon emissions. Market operation indicators include capacity market participation rate, fixed cost recovery rate of market participants, revenue dispersion of market participants, ratio of capacity price to net cost of reference units, alignment rate of user-side capacity cost ratio to fixed cost ratio, market participant bid limit rate, capacity price limit rate, industry concentration, system surplus supply index, and system capacity retention rate.

3. The method for evaluating operational effectiveness based on electricity capacity market evaluation indicators according to claim 2, characterized in that, The capacity market evaluation indicators calculated based on operational data include: Reliability indicators In the formula: Indicates the number of days for reliability assessment; For the first Peak load probability function; For the first Available capacity value in the probability function of total available capacity of generator units during peak load period; Capacity market supply and demand ratio In the formula: For the first Reliable capacity of each generator set; This represents the total number of generator sets in the power system. To meet the target capacity requirements of the power system; User-side electricity price increase In the formula: To establish a capacity market and set user-side electricity prices; This refers to the user-side electricity price when only an electricity market exists. Total cost of purchasing capacity In the formula: This represents the total winning bid capacity in the capacity market. To clear prices in the capacity market; capacity market social welfare In the formula: Let be the price of the i-th segment of the capacity demand curve; Let be the winning bid capacity for the i-th segment of the capacity demand curve; Number of segments for the capacity demand curve; The market price for unit j capacity; For unit j, to win a capacity bid in the capacity market; Clean energy capacity winning bid ratio In the formula: For the first Total capacity of energy units cleared out; This represents the total number of clean energy categories; Non-fossil energy capacity share In the formula: For the first Total capacity of non-fossil energy units cleared out; This represents the total number of non-fossil energy categories; carbon emissions In the formula: For the first Carbon emission coefficient of this type of unit; This represents the total number of categories of power generation entities in the capacity market; For the first The estimated annual power generation of this type of unit; Capacity Market Participation In the formula: For the unit The installed capacity declared in the capacity market; The total number of market entities participating in the capacity market application; The total installed capacity of all market participants in the power system; Market entity fixed cost recovery rate In the formula: For the first Class 1 Fixed cost recovery rate for each power generation entity ; For the first Class 1 Annual capacity market revenue of individual power generation entities; For the first Class 1 Annual fixed costs of each power generation entity; For the first Total number of power generation entities of this type; Dispersion of returns among market participants in capacity market In the formula: For the first Class 1 Electricity market revenue of individual power generation entities; For the first Class 1 The total cost of a single power generation entity; For the first Class 1 Electricity market profitability of individual power generation entities , ; For the first The average market return rate of the type of entity; This represents the average rate of return in the overall electricity market. Capacity price to reference unit net cost ratio In the formula: For reference unit net cost; For reference, the unit's electricity market revenue is projected; For reference, the ancillary services market is projected to generate revenue; User-side capacity cost ratio and fixed cost ratio alignment In the formula: The proportion of electricity user capacity costs to total electricity costs; Total cost of electricity purchase for electricity users; For reference, the fixed cost of the unit; For reference, the total cost of the generating unit; This serves as a reference for the proportion of fixed costs to total costs for a generator unit. Market entity quotation rate In the formula: The number of market participants whose bids reach the capacity market price limit; The total number of participants in the capacity market; Capacity-price-reach-limit rate In the formula: The number of times / years that the market price for capacity has reached its price ceiling; Total number of market simulations / number of years; Industry concentration In the formula: For the first in the capacity market The reliable capacity of the power plants that won the bids; The total number of power plants that won bids in the capacity market; The total reliable capacity of power plants that won bids in the capacity market; System surplus supply index In the formula: For the first in the capacity market The surplus supply index of power plants; For the first in the capacity market The reliable capacity of the power plants that won the bids; System capacity retention rate In the formula: For the first in the capacity market Capacity retention rate of each market entity; For the first in the capacity market Credible capacity not declared by any market entity; This represents the total number of power generation entities in the power system.

4. The method for evaluating operational effectiveness based on electricity capacity market evaluation indicators according to claim 1, characterized in that, The subjective weighting of capacity market indicators, and the calculation of subjective weights for evaluation indicators, include: The weights of the indicators are calculated using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), the priority weight of each element at each level to a certain element at the previous level is calculated using the judgment matrix, and the final weight of the overall objective is calculated using a weighted method. Compare each evaluation indicator at the same level in pairs, and form a judgment matrix based on the importance of each indicator to the higher-level indicators. The weights of each indicator are formed by calculating the average value of each row based on the judgment matrix of each indicator. The random consistency ratio is calculated using the largest eigenvalue of the judgment matrix and the weight vector. If the parameter is less than the preset value, the consistency test is considered to have passed and the indicator weights are reasonable. Based on the weights of indicators at each level, the comprehensive subjective weight of the indicators to the overall goal is calculated through chain multiplication of the hierarchical weights.

5. The method for evaluating operational effectiveness based on electricity capacity market evaluation indicators according to claim 1, characterized in that, The objective evaluation of capacity market indicators and the determination of objective weights for these indicators include: The entropy weight method is used to objectively evaluate market capacity indicators. Determine the nature of the indicators, standardize the raw data, and convert all indicator values ​​to the same range; Calculate the weight of each sample data under each indicator to determine the probability matrix; Based on the entropy formula, calculate the information entropy value and information utility value of each indicator; The weights of all indicators are calculated by normalizing the information utility values ​​of each indicator.

6. The method for evaluating operational effectiveness based on electricity capacity market evaluation indicators according to claim 5, characterized in that, The calculation of the information entropy value and information utility value of each indicator includes: In the formula: For the first The information entropy value of each indicator; For the first The first indicator in the The proportion in each sample; The number of samples; For the first The information utility value of each indicator.

7. The method for evaluating operational effectiveness based on electricity capacity market evaluation indicators according to claim 5, characterized in that, The comprehensive evaluation of capacity market operation effectiveness based on the subjective and objective weights of evaluation indicators includes: When evaluating the operational effectiveness of capacity markets, a comprehensive assessment combining subjective and objective methods is employed. Based on the capacity market scenario design and simulation operation data, and combined with the calculation formulas of various evaluation indicators of the capacity market, each indicator is scored and normalized to obtain sample data of the evaluation indicator system. At the same time, combined with subjective weights and objective weights, the comprehensive weight coefficient of the evaluation indicators is determined by multiplication synthesis method. The comprehensive score of the capacity market is calculated by weighted average of the comprehensive weight coefficient and the indicator scoring results.

8. An operational performance evaluation system based on electricity capacity market evaluation indicators, characterized in that: include: The rating indicator acquisition module is used to acquire operational data of the electricity capacity market and calculate capacity market evaluation indicators based on the operational data. The subjective weight acquisition module is used to subjectively assign weights to capacity market indicators and calculate the subjective weights of evaluation indicators. The objective weight acquisition module is used to objectively evaluate capacity market indicators and determine the objective weights of the evaluation indicators. The evaluation module is used to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the operational effectiveness of the capacity market based on the subjective and objective weights of the evaluation indicators.

9. A computer device comprising a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, characterized in that, When the processor executes the computer program, it implements the steps of the operation performance evaluation method based on the power capacity market evaluation index as described in any one of claims 1 to 7.

10. A computer-readable storage medium storing a computer program, characterized in that, When the computer program is executed by the processor, it implements the steps of the operational performance evaluation method based on the power capacity market evaluation index as described in any one of claims 1 to 7.

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