A method and system for discovering key driving factors of offshore wind power fluctuation and evaluating intervention effects

By acquiring multi-source spatiotemporal data and performing multi-scale time-frequency preprocessing, combined with the construction of a spatiotemporal constraint structure causal graph and the decoupling calculation of causal effects, the key driving factors of offshore wind power fluctuations are identified. This solves the problems of causal relationship confusion and poor regulation effect in existing technologies, and achieves precise power fluctuation regulation and assessment.

CN122412833APending Publication Date: 2026-07-17HUAIYIN INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY
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Patent Information

Authority / Receiving Office
CN · China
Patent Type
Applications(China)
Current Assignee / Owner
HUAIYIN INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY
Filing Date
2026-04-23
Publication Date
2026-07-17

AI Technical Summary

Technical Problem

Existing technologies struggle to identify key driving factors and causal transmission paths of offshore wind power fluctuations, resulting in ineffective control measures and an inability to quantify the intervention's impact before implementation.

Method used

We employ a method that combines multi-source spatiotemporal data acquisition, multi-scale time-frequency joint preprocessing, spatiotemporal constraint structure causal graph construction, and causal effect decoupling calculation. By using conditional independence tests and triple constraint matrices to eliminate spurious associations, we identify key driving factors and quantify intervention effects.

Benefits of technology

It has enabled precise tracing of key driving factors of offshore wind power fluctuations and ex-ante quantification of their control effects, improving the accuracy of causal identification and assessment precision, effectively smoothing wind power output fluctuations, and reducing wind curtailment rates.

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Abstract

本发明提供了一种海上风电功率波动关键驱动因子发现与干预效应评估方法及系统,所述方法首先通过多尺度时频联合预处理实现复合异常鲁棒剔除、时空注意力加权插值与时频特征增强;再构建基于条件独立性检验的因果发现融合算法与三重时空电气约束的结构因果图,融入空间邻域、时序先后、电气耦合物理规则,剔除虚假因果边;随后采用后门 / 前门 / 工具变量混合因果推断,解耦各因子对功率波动的直接、间接与总因果效应,自动识别关键驱动因子与核心传导路径;最后基于反事实推理完成虚拟干预效果量化评估。本发明显著提升因果识别精度、机理可解释性与干预评估可靠性,为海上风电场功率平滑、机组优化控制、电网安全调度提供精准依据。
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