A mid-term planning method and device for rotating reserve capacity to coordinate and prevent the risks of abandoning new energy and power outages

Abstract

The present invention discloses a mid-term planning method and device for rotating reserve capacity for coordinated prevention and control of the risks of abandoning new energy and power outages. The method selects various reserve measures from a power increase and decrease measure library based on a cost-performance ratio index within a set dispatch window to improve the risk within the dispatch window; by continuously moving the dispatch window backward, dynamic adjustment of reserve measures is achieved, thereby achieving the goal of minimizing the total cost of power system regulation risk. The present invention can adaptively select the reserve measures with the best cost-effectiveness for improving risks within the dispatch window, effectively solving the problem that it is difficult to coordinate the increase and decrease reserve measures in the risk prevention and control of regional power systems.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention belongs to the technical field of power system operation and dispatching, and specifically relates to a medium-term planning method and device for rotating reserve capacity for coordinating and preventing risks of abandoning new energy and power outages. Background Art

[0002] In the future, the power grid will inevitably be connected to a high proportion of renewable energy. The intermittent output of wind power and photovoltaic power generation makes it difficult to quickly improve the accuracy of their output prediction. The risk of organizing power production according to the predicted output of new energy will exist for a long time, especially in China's power system dominated by coal-fired power. Coal-fired power units start slowly and have minimum technical output constraints. Relying on them to balance the output fluctuations of new energy such as wind power and photovoltaic power has great limitations: if the coal-fired power is started too much, resulting in a large amount of wind and light abandonment, it will cause a great waste of clean energy resources; on the contrary, if the coal-fired power unit is started or the adjustment rate is insufficient, the adjustment will not keep up with the rapid fluctuations of renewable energy, which will cause power outage risks. Therefore, how to effectively balance the fluctuations of new energy and promote the effective absorption of new energy is the main problem to be solved for the further development of new energy power generation. While ensuring the safety and reliability of the power grid, reducing the abandonment rate of wind and light has become an important task to promote the sustainable development of new energy. This requires that after the new energy is connected to the grid, the power grid can be reasonably planned for operation and the reliable, economical and clean operation of the power system in the new era can be coordinated.

[0003] To ensure the safety of the power grid as a prerequisite, in order to promote the consumption of wind / solar renewable energy, a medium-term operation planning algorithm for the power grid is proposed for the risk scenarios that may arise due to the grid connection of renewable energy, so as to fully tap the reserve value of flexible start-up and shutdown of thermal power units, take into account the start-up and shutdown of thermal power in the operation planning, and reduce the risk control cost. At present, there are many studies on the optimization methods for preventing and controlling the risk of power outages, that is, the increase in the participation of emergency reserves. However, at the same time, the state's regulations on the indicators of abandoned renewable energy need to reduce the abandonment of renewable energy, and reducing the abandonment of renewable energy happens to contradict the measures to prevent and control the risk of power outages. If the reserve investment is too much to effectively prevent and control the risk of power outages, it may lead to the abandonment of renewable energy. If the reserve measures are insufficiently invested to promote the consumption of new energy, it may lead to the risk of power outages. In the process of optimal configuration of the reserve of the power system, it is urgent to coordinate the prevention and control of new energy and power outage risks. Summary of the invention

[0004] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a medium-term planning method and device for rotating reserve capacity for coordinated prevention and control of the risks of abandonment of new energy and power outages, so as to effectively solve the problem that it is difficult to coordinate the upward and downward adjustment of reserve measures for risk prevention and control.

[0005] To achieve the above object, the technical solution adopted by the present invention is as follows:

[0006] A mid-term planning method for spinning reserve capacity that coordinates the prevention and control of risks of abandonment of renewable energy and power outages, comprising:

[0007] Conduct feasibility assessment on backup measures in current power systems;

[0008] Generate a library of upward and downward adjustment backup measures based on feasibility assessment results;

[0009] Sort the backup measures in the upward and downward backup measures library based on the cost-performance ratio index;

[0010] Select the top-ranked up-adjustment and down-adjustment backup measures from the up-adjustment and down-adjustment backup measures library, and calculate the risks in the scheduling window before and after the selected up-adjustment and down-adjustment backup measures are put into use;

[0011] Based on the risk change in the scheduling window before and after the upward and downward adjustment of the backup measures, the backup measures are selected and put into use until the entire scheduling cycle is calculated.

[0012] Furthermore, the feasibility of the backup measures in the current power system is evaluated, including:

[0013] If the following constraints are met, the currently operational backup measures can participate in the downgrade:

[0014] T i.off.t >T i.off.min ;

[0015] Among them, T i.off.t is the time that backup measure i maintains the non-output state before the decision point t, T i.off.min is the minimum continuous non-output time of backup measure i;

[0016] If the following constraints are met, the backup measures that are not currently in operation can participate in the increase:

[0017] T i.on.t >T i.on.min ;

[0018] Among them, T i.on.t is the continuous output time of backup measure i before the decision point t, T i.on.min is the minimum continuous output time of backup measure i.

[0019] Furthermore, it also includes:

[0020] The scheduling window is divided according to the scheduling cycle, and the decision points are divided according to the time within the scheduling window.

[0021] Furthermore, the backup measures that can participate in the upward adjustment are put into the upward adjustment backup measures library, and the backup measures that can participate in the downward adjustment are put into the downward adjustment backup measures library.

[0022] Furthermore, ranking the alternative measures means:

[0023] The backup measures in the backup measure library are sorted from small to large based on the cost-performance ratio index; the backup measures in the backup measure library are sorted from large to small based on the cost-performance ratio index.

[0024] Furthermore,

[0025] The increase in the backup measures is calculated based on the cost-performance ratio index as follows:

[0026]

[0027] Among them, CPR s.m.i represents the cost-performance ratio of increasing the backup measure mi under the uncertain risk scenario s, C on.m.i represents the cost of raising the output of the reserve measure mi, C up.m.i Indicates the upgrade cost of the reserve measure mi. Upgrade means upgrading from hot state to rotating state. uload s represents the average load rate under uncertain risk scenario s, len wd represents the length of the scheduling window, and Δt represents the duration of the unit decision point;

[0028] The downgraded backup measures are calculated based on the cost-performance ratio index as follows:

[0029]

[0030] Among them, CPR s.n.i represents the cost-performance ratio of downgrading backup measures ni under uncertain risk scenario s, C on.n.i Indicates the reduction of the output cost of the backup measure ni, C dn.n.i It represents the downgrading cost of downgrading the standby measure ni, where downgrading refers to downgrading from the rotating state to the hot state.

[0031] Furthermore, the uncertain risk scenario is generated based on medium-term forecast information.

[0032] Furthermore, the risk calculation within the scheduling window is as follows:

[0033]

[0034] Among them, R s.j represents the risk of decision point j in uncertain risk scenario s, ρ ab For the unit cost of abandoning new energy, aTable s.j is the total abandoned new energy in the subsequent scheduling window at decision point j in the uncertain risk scenario s, ρ bl is the unit power outage defense cost, bTable s.j is the total outage power of decision point j in the subsequent dispatch window in the uncertain risk scenario s, N tis the number of optimization periods in the scheduling window, N i Indicates the number of units, u k.i is the start / stop state of regulating unit i, 1 means contract is signed, 0 means no contract is signed, ρ e.i is the electricity cost of the participating control unit i, P out.i.s.t To regulate the power generation of unit i at time t in the uncertain risk scenario s, ρ up.i is the unit startup cost of regulating unit i, P max.i To regulate the maximum output of unit i, ρ dn.i is the unit shutdown cost of regulating unit i.

[0035] Furthermore, based on the risk change in the scheduling window before and after the upward and downward adjustment of the backup measures, backup measures are selected and put into use, including:

[0036] Determine whether the risk change in the scheduling window before and after the up and down backup measures are put into use is within the threshold.

[0037] If the threshold is exceeded, the risk improvement after the up and down adjustment of the backup measures is compared according to the risk change, and the backup measures with better risk improvement are selected. The current point decision table and the up and down adjustment backup measures library are updated, and then the optimization calculation of the current decision point is continued;

[0038] If they are all within the threshold, the scheduling window is moved back one time and the next decision point is optimized;

[0039] The point decision table records the output units and output size at each moment. When updating, the units that are adjusted downward are eliminated and the units that are adjusted upward are written in.

[0040] Another aspect of the present invention provides a mid-term planning device for rotating reserve capacity for coordinating and preventing the risks of abandoning new energy and power outages, comprising:

[0041] An evaluation module is used to evaluate the feasibility of backup measures in the current power system;

[0042] A storage module is used to generate a library of upward and downward adjustment backup measures based on feasibility assessment results;

[0043] A sorting module, used for sorting the backup measures in the upward and downward backup measures library based on the cost-performance ratio index;

[0044] A calculation module is used to select the top-ranked up-adjustment and down-adjustment backup measures from the up-adjustment and down-adjustment backup measures library, and calculate the risks in the scheduling window before and after the selected up-adjustment and down-adjustment backup measures are put into use;

[0045] as well as,

[0046] The screening module is used to select and implement backup measures based on the risk change in the scheduling window before and after the upward and downward adjustment of backup measures.

[0047] Furthermore, the evaluation module is specifically used to:

[0048] If the following constraints are met, the currently operational backup measures can participate in the downgrade:

[0049] T i.off.t >T i.off.min ;

[0050] Among them, T i.off.t is the time that backup measure i maintains the non-output state before the decision point t, T i.off.min is the minimum continuous non-output time of backup measure i;

[0051] If the following constraints are met, the backup measures that are not currently in operation can participate in the increase:

[0052] T i.on.t >T i.on.min ;

[0053] Among them, T i.on.t is the continuous output time of backup measure i before the decision point t, T i.on.min is the minimum continuous output time of backup measure i.

[0054] Furthermore, the sorting module is specifically used to:

[0055] The backup measures in the backup measures library are sorted upward based on the cost-performance ratio index from small to large; the backup measures in the backup measures library are sorted downward based on the cost-performance ratio index from large to small;

[0056] Among them, the increase in reserve measures is calculated based on the cost-performance ratio index as follows:

[0057]

[0058] Among them, CPR s.m.i represents the cost-performance ratio of increasing the backup measure mi under the uncertain risk scenario s, C on.m.i represents the cost of raising the output of the reserve measure mi, C up.m.i Indicates the upgrade cost of the reserve measure mi. Upgrade means upgrading from hot state to rotating state. uload s represents the average load rate under uncertain risk scenario s, len wd represents the length of the scheduling window, and Δt represents the duration of the unit decision point;

[0059] The downgraded backup measures are calculated based on the cost-performance ratio index as follows:

[0060]

[0061] Among them, CPR s.n.i represents the cost-performance ratio of downgrading backup measures ni under uncertain risk scenario s, C on.n.i Indicates the reduction of the output cost of the backup measure ni, C dn.n.i It represents the downgrading cost of downgrading the standby measure ni, where downgrading refers to downgrading from the rotating state to the hot state.

[0062] Furthermore, the screening module is specifically used to:

[0063] Determine whether the risk change in the scheduling window before and after the up and down backup measures are put into use is within the threshold.

[0064] If the threshold is exceeded, the risk improvement after the up and down adjustment of the backup measures is compared according to the risk change, and the backup measures with better risk improvement are selected. The current point decision table and the up and down adjustment backup measures library are updated, and then the optimization calculation of the current decision point is continued;

[0065] If they are all within the threshold, the scheduling window is moved back one time and the next decision point is optimized;

[0066] The point decision table records the output units and output size at each moment. When updating, the units that are adjusted downward are eliminated and the units that are adjusted upward are written in.

[0067] Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following beneficial effects:

[0068] The present invention improves the risk within the scheduling window by optimizing various backup measures from a power increase and decrease measure library within the set scheduling window based on a cost-performance ratio index; the present invention can comprehensively coordinate the prevention and control of the risks of abandoning new energy and power outages, and can adaptively select the best backup measure decision for improving the risk in the subsequent scheduling window at each moment, effectively solving the problem that it is difficult to coordinate the increase and decrease backup measures for risk prevention and control, and is innovative and practical. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0069] Figure 1 This is a flow chart of the medium-term operation planning method for coordinating the prevention and control of the risks of abandoning new energy and power outages of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0070] The present invention is further described below. The following examples are only used to more clearly illustrate the technical solution of the present invention, and are not intended to limit the protection scope of the present invention.

[0071] A mid-term planning method for spinning reserve capacity for coordinated prevention and control of risks of abandoning new energy and power outages of the present invention comprises:

[0072] Conduct feasibility assessment on backup measures in current power system;

[0073] Generate a library of upward and downward adjustment backup measures based on feasibility assessment results;

[0074] Sort the backup measures in the upward and downward backup measures library based on the cost-performance ratio index;

[0075] Select the best up-adjustment and down-adjustment backup measures from the up-adjustment and down-adjustment backup measures library respectively, and calculate the risks in the scheduling window before and after the selected up-adjustment and down-adjustment backup measures are put into use;

[0076] Based on the risk change in the scheduling window before and after the upward and downward adjustment of the backup measures, the backup measures are put into use until the entire scheduling cycle is calculated.

[0077] As a preferred embodiment of the present invention, a mid-term planning method for spinning reserve capacity for coordinated prevention and control of the risk of abandonment of new energy and power outage is provided. Figure 1 The specific implementation process is as follows:

[0078] Step 1, based on medium-term forecast information including but not limited to one week, generate uncertain risk scenarios; read the initial decision, and if there is no initial decision input, generate the initial decision; and set the scheduling window length.

[0079] Among them, the medium-term forecast information includes the predicted output of new energy, the probability of various output conditions, and the load forecast output. According to the forecast results, the load minus the new energy is used to obtain the uncertain risk scenario.

[0080] In the dispatch window, decision points are divided by time, and a decision point is set every 15 minutes. The initial decision is based on the calculation of the cost-performance ratio of each unit, and the unit with the best indicator data is selected in turn to participate in the output until the output demand at the current point is met. The decision content is the unit number and unit output of the participating unit.

[0081] Step 2: Conduct a feasibility assessment of the backup measures in the current power system.

[0082] Under the constraints, the backup measures that have been put into operation determine whether the current decision point can be adjusted downward, and the backup measures that have not been put into operation determine whether the current decision point can be adjusted upward. The feasibility of the backup measures is determined as follows:

[0083] (1) Feasibility assessment of the backup measures (start-up time interval constraints)

[0084] T i.off.t >T i.off.min

[0085] T i.off.tT is the time that backup measure i maintains the non-output state before the decision point t; i.off.min is the minimum continuous non-output time of backup measure i.

[0086] (2) Feasibility assessment of downgraded standby measures (minimum output time constraints)

[0087] T i.on.t >T i.on.min

[0088] T i.on.t is the continuous output time of backup measure i before the decision point t (the corresponding interruptible load is the interruption time, and the same applies below); T i.on.min is the minimum continuous output time of backup measure i.

[0089] Step 3: Generate an upward and downward adjustment backup measure library based on the evaluation results. The backup measures that can participate in upward adjustment are placed in the upward adjustment backup measure library, and the backup measures that can participate in downward adjustment are placed in the downward adjustment backup measure library.

[0090] Step 4, sorting the backup measures in the upward and downward backup measures library based on the cost-performance ratio index;

[0091] The backup measures in the backup measure library are sorted from small to large based on the cost-performance ratio index; the backup measures in the backup measure library are sorted from large to small based on the cost-performance ratio index.

[0092] In order to reduce the abandonment of new energy, the capacity of backup measures is optimized and reduced. Backup measures with high cost and poor risk reduction effect, that is, measures with large cost-performance ratio indicators, are selected for reduction. In order to reduce the risk of power outages, the capacity of backup measures needs to be increased. Backup measures with low cost and obvious risk reduction effect, that is, measures with small cost-performance ratio indicators, are selected for increase. The cost-performance ratio indicator of emergency backup measure i is calculated as:

[0093] (1) Raise the cost-performance ratio of alternative measures

[0094]

[0095] In the formula, CPR s.m.i represents the cost-performance ratio of increasing the backup measure mi under the uncertain risk scenario s; C on.m.i Indicates the output cost (power generation cost) of the reserve measure mi; C up.m.i represents the upgrade cost of the backup measure mi, from the hot state to the rotating state; uload s Indicates the average load rate under scenario s; len wd represents the length of the scheduling window; Δt represents the duration of the unit decision point.

[0096] (2) Lower the cost-performance ratio of alternative measures

[0097]

[0098] In the formula, CPR s.n.i represents the cost-performance ratio of downgrading the backup measure ni under scenario s; C on.n.i Indicates the reduction of the output cost (power generation cost) of the reserve measure ni; C dn.n.i represents the downgrade cost of the standby measure ni, from the rotating state to the hot state; uload s Indicates the average load rate under scenario s; len wd represents the length of the scheduling window; Δt represents the duration of the unit decision point.

[0099] Step 5: Select the optimal (i.e., the first) up-and-down adjustment alternative measure in the sorted up-and-down adjustment alternative measure library, and calculate the risks in the window before and after the selected up-and-down adjustment alternative measure is put into use. The calculation formula is as follows:

[0100]

[0101] Where s, j, t, and i represent the current new energy forecast scenario number, the current decision point number, the optimization period number (the optimization period within the scheduling window), and the unit number, respectively. t is the number of optimization periods in the scheduling window, N i Indicates the number of units; ρ ab The cost of abandoning new energy for each unit; aTable s.j is the total abandoned new energy in the subsequent scheduling window at decision point j in scenario s; ρ bl bTable is the unit power outage defense cost; s.j is the total outage power at decision point j in the subsequent scheduling window in scenario s; u k.i is the start and stop status of regulating unit i, 1 means signing a contract, 0 means not signing a contract; ρ e.i is the electricity cost of the participating control unit i; P out.i.s.t is the power generation of unit i at time t in scenario s; ρ up.i To regulate the unit startup cost of unit i, the value of the flexible unit and the already started thermal power unit is 0; P max.i is the maximum output of regulating unit i; ρ dn.i To regulate the unit shutdown cost of unit i, the value of the flexible unit and the unstarted thermal power unit is 0.

[0102] Step 6: Determine whether the risk change before and after the backup measures are put into use is within the threshold. If it exceeds the threshold, compare the risk improvement of the up and down backup measures, select the measure with better risk improvement (determined according to the risk calculation value), and update the current point decision table and the up and down backup measures library, then return to step 2, re-evaluate the feasibility of the backup measures based on the updated decision and the up and down backup measures library, and continue to optimize the current decision point.

[0103] If it is within the threshold and there is no significant change in the risk within the scheduling window of the current decision table, proceed to step 7.

[0104] Among them, the point decision table records the output units and output size at each moment. If the measures are adjusted, it needs to be updated in time, the units that are adjusted down (shut down) will be eliminated, and the units that are adjusted up (started) will be written in.

[0105] In step 7, the scheduling window moves back one time, and then returns to step 1 to optimize the next decision point. As the scheduling window moves back, each decision point in the scheduling window is optimized in turn until the window goes beyond the scheduling cycle, the optimization ends, and a control plan for the entire scheduling cycle is generated.

[0106] As another preferred embodiment of the present invention, a mid-term planning device for spinning reserve capacity for coordinating and preventing the risk of abandoning new energy and power outage is provided, comprising:

[0107] An evaluation module is used to evaluate the feasibility of backup measures in the current power system;

[0108] A storage module is used to generate a library of upward and downward adjustment backup measures based on feasibility assessment results;

[0109] A sorting module, used for sorting the backup measures in the upward and downward backup measures library based on the cost-performance ratio index;

[0110] A calculation module is used to select the top-ranked up-adjustment and down-adjustment backup measures from the up-adjustment and down-adjustment backup measures library, and calculate the risks in the scheduling window before and after the selected up-adjustment and down-adjustment backup measures are put into use;

[0111] as well as,

[0112] The screening module is used to select and implement backup measures based on the risk change in the scheduling window before and after the upward and downward adjustment of backup measures.

[0113] In the embodiment of the present invention, the evaluation module is specifically used to:

[0114] If the following constraints are met, the currently operational backup measures can participate in the downgrade:

[0115] T i.off.t >T i.off.min;

[0116] Among them, T i.off.t is the time that backup measure i maintains the non-output state before the decision point t, T i.off.min is the minimum continuous non-output time of backup measure i;

[0117] If the following constraints are met, the backup measures that are not currently in operation can participate in the increase:

[0118] T i.on.t >T i.on.min ;

[0119] Among them, T i.on.t is the continuous output time of backup measure i before the decision point t, T i.on.min is the minimum continuous output time of backup measure i.

[0120] In the embodiment of the present invention, the sorting module is specifically used to:

[0121] The backup measures in the backup measures library are sorted upward based on the cost-performance ratio index from small to large; the backup measures in the backup measures library are sorted downward based on the cost-performance ratio index from large to small;

[0122] Among them, the increase in reserve measures is calculated based on the cost-performance ratio index as follows:

[0123]

[0124] Among them, CPR s.m.i represents the cost-performance ratio of increasing the backup measure mi under the uncertain risk scenario s, C on.m.i represents the cost of raising the output of the reserve measure mi, C up.m.i Indicates the upgrade cost of the reserve measure mi. Upgrade means upgrading from hot state to rotating state. uload s represents the average load rate under uncertain risk scenario s, len wd represents the length of the scheduling window, and Δt represents the duration of the unit decision point;

[0125] The downgraded backup measures are calculated based on the cost-performance ratio index as follows:

[0126]

[0127] Among them, CPR s.n.i represents the cost-performance ratio of downgrading backup measures ni under uncertain risk scenario s, C on.n.i Indicates the reduction of the output cost of the backup measure ni, C dn.n.i It represents the downgrading cost of downgrading the standby measure ni, where downgrading refers to downgrading from the rotating state to the hot state.

[0128] In the embodiment of the present invention, the screening module is specifically used to:

[0129] Determine whether the risk change in the scheduling window before and after the up and down backup measures are put into use is within the threshold.

[0130] If the threshold is exceeded, the risk improvement after the up and down adjustment of the backup measures is compared according to the risk change, and the backup measures with better risk improvement are selected. The current point decision table and the up and down adjustment backup measures library are updated, and then the optimization calculation of the current decision point is continued;

[0131] If they are all within the threshold, the scheduling window is moved back one time and the next decision point is optimized;

[0132] Among them, the point decision table records the output units and output size at each moment. When updating, the downward adjustment units will be eliminated and the upward adjustment units will be written in.

[0133] It is worth pointing out that the device embodiment corresponds to the above-mentioned method embodiment, and the implementation methods of the above-mentioned method embodiments are all applicable to the device embodiment and can achieve the same or similar technical effects, so they will not be repeated here.

[0134] Those skilled in the art will appreciate that the embodiments of the present application may be provided as methods, systems, or computer program products. Therefore, the present application may adopt the form of a complete hardware embodiment, a complete software embodiment, or an embodiment in combination with software and hardware. Moreover, the present application may adopt the form of a computer program product implemented in one or more computer-usable storage media (including but not limited to disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, etc.) that include computer-usable program code.

[0135] The present application is described with reference to the flowcharts and / or block diagrams of the methods, devices (systems), and computer program products according to the embodiments of the present application. It should be understood that each process and / or box in the flowchart and / or block diagram, as well as the combination of the processes and / or boxes in the flowchart and / or block diagram, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions can be provided to a processor of a general-purpose computer, a special-purpose computer, an embedded processor, or other programmable data processing device to generate a machine, so that the instructions executed by the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing device generate instructions for implementing the processes in the flowchart and / or block diagram. Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A device that provides the functions specified in a block or multiple blocks.

[0136] These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory capable of directing a computer or other programmable data processing device to operate in a specific manner, so that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture comprising an instruction device, which implements the process Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A function specified in one or more boxes.

[0137] These computer program instructions can also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing device so that a series of operating steps are executed on the computer or other programmable device to produce a computer-implemented process, thereby providing instructions for implementing the process. Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A step that specifies a function in one or more boxes.

[0138] Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention rather than to limit it. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the above embodiments, ordinary technicians in the relevant field should understand that the specific implementation methods of the present invention can still be modified or replaced by equivalents. Any modification or equivalent replacement that does not depart from the spirit and scope of the present invention should be covered within the scope of protection of the claims of the present invention.

Claims

1. A mid-term planning method for spinning reserve capacity to coordinate and prevent the risk of abandoning new energy and power outages, characterized in that: include: Conduct feasibility assessment on backup measures in current power systems; Generate a library of upward and downward adjustment backup measures based on feasibility assessment results; Sort the backup measures in the upward and downward backup measures library based on the cost-performance ratio index; Select the top-ranked up-adjustment and down-adjustment backup measures from the up-adjustment and down-adjustment backup measures library, and calculate the risks in the scheduling window before and after the selected up-adjustment and down-adjustment backup measures are put into use; The risk calculation within the scheduling window is as follows: Among them, R s.j represents the risk of decision point j in uncertain risk scenario s, ρ ab For the unit cost of abandoning new energy, aTable s.j is the total abandoned new energy in the subsequent scheduling window at decision point j in the uncertain risk scenario s, ρ bl is the unit power outage defense cost, bTable s.j is the total outage power of decision point j in the subsequent dispatch window in the uncertain risk scenario s, N t is the number of optimization periods in the scheduling window, N i Indicates the number of units, u k.i is the start / stop state of regulating unit i, 1 means contract is signed, 0 means no contract is signed, ρ e.i is the electricity cost of the participating control unit i, P out.i.s.t To regulate the power generation of unit i at time t in the uncertain risk scenario s, ρ up.i is the unit startup cost of regulating unit i, P max.i To regulate the maximum output of unit i, ρ dn.i is the unit shutdown cost of regulating unit i; Based on the risk change in the scheduling window before and after the up and down backup measures are put into use, backup measures are selected and put into use until the entire scheduling cycle is calculated; The step of selecting and implementing a backup measure based on the risk change in the scheduling window before and after the upward and downward adjustment of the backup measure is implemented includes: Determine whether the risk change in the scheduling window before and after the up and down backup measures are put into use is within the threshold. If the threshold is exceeded, the risk improvement after the up and down adjustment of the backup measures is compared according to the risk change, and the backup measures with better risk improvement are selected. The current point decision table and the up and down adjustment backup measures library are updated, and then the optimization calculation of the current decision point is continued; If they are all within the threshold, the scheduling window is moved back one time and the next decision point is optimized; The point decision table records the output units and output size at each moment. When updating, the units that are adjusted downward are eliminated and the units that are adjusted upward are written in.

2. According to claim 1, a method for mid-term planning of spinning reserve capacity for coordinated prevention and control of risks of abandonment of new energy and power outages is characterized in that: Conduct feasibility assessment of backup measures in the current power system, including: If the following constraints are met, the currently operational backup measures can participate in the downgrade: T i.off.t >T i.off.min ; Among them, T i.off.t is the time that backup measure i maintains the non-output state before the decision point t, T i.off.min is the minimum continuous non-output time of backup measure i; If the following constraints are met, the backup measures that are not currently in operation can participate in the increase: T i.on.t >T i.on.min ; Among them, T i.on.t is the continuous output time of backup measure i before the decision point t, T i.on.min is the minimum continuous output time of backup measure i.

3. According to claim 1, a method for mid-term planning of spinning reserve capacity for coordinated prevention and control of risks of abandonment of new energy and power outages is characterized in that: Also includes, The scheduling window is divided according to the scheduling cycle, and the decision points are divided according to the time within the scheduling window.

4. A mid-term planning method for rotating reserve capacity for coordinated prevention and control of risks of abandonment of new energy and power outages according to claim 2, characterized in that: The alternative measures that can participate in upward adjustment are placed in the library of alternative measures for upward adjustment, and the alternative measures that can participate in downward adjustment are placed in the library of alternative measures for downward adjustment.

5. A mid-term planning method for rotating reserve capacity for coordinated prevention and control of risks of abandonment of new energy and power outages according to claim 4, characterized in that: Ranking the alternative measures means: The backup measures in the backup measure library are sorted from small to large based on the cost-performance ratio index; the backup measures in the backup measure library are sorted from large to small based on the cost-performance ratio index.

6. A mid-term planning method for spinning reserve capacity for coordinated prevention and control of risks of abandonment of new energy and power outages according to claim 5, characterized in that: The increase in the backup measures is calculated based on the cost-performance ratio index as follows: Among them, CPR s.m.i represents the cost-performance ratio of increasing the backup measure mi under the uncertain risk scenario s, C on.m.i represents the cost of increasing the output of the reserve measure mi, C up.m.i Indicates the upgrade cost of the reserve measure mi. Upgrade means upgrading from hot state to rotating state. uload s represents the average load rate under uncertain risk scenario s, len wd represents the length of the scheduling window, and Δt represents the duration of the unit decision point; The downgraded backup measures are calculated based on the cost-performance ratio index as follows: Among them, CPR s.n.i represents the cost-performance ratio of downgrading backup measures ni under uncertain risk scenario s, C on.n.i Indicates the reduction of the output cost of the backup measure ni, C dn.n.i It represents the downgrading cost of downgrading the standby measure ni, where downgrading refers to downgrading from the rotating state to the hot state.

7. A mid-term planning method for spinning reserve capacity for coordinated prevention and control of risks of abandonment of new energy and power outages according to claim 6, characterized in that: The uncertain risk scenario is generated based on medium-term forecast information.

8. A mid-term planning device for rotating reserve capacity to coordinate and prevent the risk of abandoning new energy and power outages, characterized in that: The method for mid-term planning of spinning reserve capacity for coordinated prevention and control of risks of abandonment of new energy and power outages according to any one of claims 1 to 7 comprises: An evaluation module is used to evaluate the feasibility of backup measures in the current power system; A storage module is used to generate a library of upward and downward adjustment backup measures based on feasibility assessment results; A sorting module, used for sorting the backup measures in the upward and downward backup measures library based on the cost-performance ratio index; The calculation module is used to select the top-ranked reserve measures from the reserve measures library, and calculate the risks in the scheduling window before and after the selected reserve measures are put into use; wherein, the risk in the scheduling window is calculated as follows: Among them, R s.j represents the risk of decision point j in uncertain risk scenario s, ρ ab For the unit cost of abandoning new energy, aTable s.j is the total abandoned new energy in the subsequent scheduling window at decision point j in the uncertain risk scenario s, ρ bl is the unit power outage defense cost, bTable s.j is the total outage power of decision point j in the subsequent dispatch window in the uncertain risk scenario s, N t is the number of optimization periods in the scheduling window, N i Indicates the number of units, u k.i is the start / stop state of regulating unit i, 1 means contract is signed, 0 means no contract is signed, ρ e.i is the electricity cost of the participating control unit i, P out.i.s.t To regulate the power generation of unit i at time t in the uncertain risk scenario s, ρ up.i is the unit startup cost of regulating unit i, P max.i To regulate the maximum output of unit i, ρ dn.i is the unit shutdown cost of regulating unit i; as well as, The screening module is used to select and put into use the backup measures based on the risk change in the scheduling window before and after the up and down backup measures are put into use. The specific implementation method is as follows: Determine whether the risk change in the scheduling window before and after the up and down backup measures are put into use is within the threshold. If the threshold is exceeded, the risk improvement after the up and down adjustment of the backup measures is compared according to the risk change, and the backup measures with better risk improvement are selected. The current point decision table and the up and down adjustment backup measures library are updated, and then the optimization calculation of the current decision point is continued; If they are all within the threshold, the scheduling window is moved back one time and the next decision point is optimized; The point decision table records the output units and output size at each moment. When updating, the units that are adjusted downward are eliminated and the units that are adjusted upward are written in.

9. A mid-term planning device for rotating reserve capacity for coordinated prevention and control of risks of abandonment of new energy and power outage according to claim 8, characterized in that: The evaluation module is specifically used for: If the following constraints are met, the currently operational backup measures can participate in the downgrade: T i.off.t >T i.off.min ; Among them, T i.off.t is the time that backup measure i maintains the non-output state before the decision point t, T i.off.min is the minimum continuous non-output time of backup measure i; If the following constraints are met, the backup measures that are not currently in operation can participate in the increase: T i.on.t >T i.on.min ; Among them, T i.on.t is the continuous output time of backup measure i before the decision point t, T i.on.min is the minimum continuous output time of backup measure i.

10. A mid-term planning device for rotating reserve capacity for coordinated prevention and control of risks of abandonment of new energy and power outage according to claim 8, characterized in that: The sorting module is specifically used to: The backup measures in the backup measures library are adjusted upward by sorting them from small to large based on the cost-performance ratio index; the backup measures in the backup measures library are adjusted downward by sorting them from large to small based on the cost-performance ratio index; Among them, the increase in reserve measures is calculated based on the cost-performance ratio index as follows: Among them, CPR s.m.i represents the cost-performance ratio of increasing the backup measure mi under the uncertain risk scenario s, C on.m.i represents the cost of increasing the output of the reserve measure mi, C up.m.i Indicates the upgrade cost of the reserve measure mi. Upgrade means upgrading from hot state to rotating state. uload s represents the average load rate under uncertain risk scenario s, len wd represents the length of the scheduling window, and Δt represents the duration of the unit decision point; The downgraded backup measures are calculated based on the cost-performance ratio index as follows: Among them, CPR s.n.i represents the cost-performance ratio of downgrading backup measures ni under uncertain risk scenario s, C on.n.i Indicates the reduction of the output cost of the backup measure ni, C dn.n.i It represents the downgrading cost of downgrading the standby measure ni, where downgrading refers to downgrading from the rotating state to the hot state.

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