A Supply Chain Risk Identification Method Based on Factor Intersection Analysis

Abstract

The present invention provides a method for identifying risks in a complex equipment supply chain through multi-factor joint analysis, including: 1. Analyze the inherent attributes of each supplier in the supply chain to identify risk factors with negative impacts or vulnerable to impacts for each supplier. 2. According to the task decomposition process of the equipment product, identify risk factors that affect product quality and delivery schedule during the product production process. 3. Based on the identified risk factors, determine key suppliers and key products during the supply chain construction process according to the factor intersection analysis method. 4. During the operation of the supply chain, use the factor intersection analysis method to analyze the possibility of risks occurring for variable factors. The present invention accurately identifies risks in the complex equipment supply chain by analyzing factors that affect the quality and delivery time of the final product during the construction process and operation process of the complex equipment supply chain, ensures the stable operation of the complex equipment supply chain, and thus supports the high-quality and high-efficiency development needs of complex equipment.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present application relates to a supply chain risk identification method based on factor intersection analysis. Specifically, by analyzing and identifying various unstable factors in the supplier selection process and the supplier supply process, and using the means of factor intersection analysis, supply chain risk suppliers and risk products are identified from four aspects: technical risk, quality risk, supply risk, and operation risk, providing an effective risk identification method for supply chain risk management, and belonging to the field of supply chain management. Background Art

[0002] A supply chain is a complex system. Different supply chains have different goals, so the supply chain risk identification methods have different focuses and the risk identification goals have deviations. The modern general commercial supply chain is managed and operated based on improving the enterprise efficiency and product competitiveness of a single core manufacturer. Its supply chain risk identification starts from the perspective of coping with market fluctuations and maintaining the industry position. However, the complex equipment supply chain in the national defense industrial system is different from the general commercial supply chain. It is established with the goal of supporting and guaranteeing major combat operations, quickly meeting the needs of product replacement, timely responding to changes in product production capacity and production baseline; it has the characteristics of involving many types of products, long supply chain, more than one core manufacturer, and many types of technologies; resulting in complex cooperation relationships, high product requirements, and increased management difficulty in the supply chain.

[0003] The complex equipment supply chain must have the characteristics of stability, fast response ability, and agility, and meet the requirements of high product quality. Therefore, supply chain managers must be able to timely identify the risk factors in the supply chain to take corresponding countermeasures to maintain the safety and stability of the supply chain. The risk identification of the complex equipment supply chain starts from the supplier selection process to identify typical suppliers, and in the process of supply chain operation, according to objective conditions, specific supply chain risks are identified from four aspects: technology, quality, supply, and operation, from two dimensions of suppliers and products, and a supply chain risk identification method centered on "quality" is established.

[0004] The present invention identifies the risks of the complex equipment supply chain by analyzing the factors affecting the quality and delivery time of the final product in the process of constructing and operating the complex equipment supply chain. From two dimensions of suppliers and products respectively, the key factors identified in the supplier selection process are intersected with the uncertain factors in the process of supply chain operation to identify the risks of the complex equipment supply chain. The purpose of the present invention is to accurately identify the risks of the complex equipment supply chain through the correlation analysis of multiple factors, ensure the stable operation of the complex equipment supply chain, and thus support the high-quality and high-efficiency development needs of complex equipment. Summary of the Invention

[0005] a) Objective: The objective of the present invention is to provide a method for identifying risks in the complex equipment supply chain through multi-factor joint analysis. By analyzing the factors that affect the quality and delivery time of the final product during the construction process and operation process of the complex equipment supply chain, combined with the characteristics of suppliers and products, through the factor intersection analysis method, accurately identify the risks in the complex equipment supply chain, ensure the stable operation of the complex equipment supply chain, and thus support the high-quality and high-efficiency development needs of complex equipment.

[0006] b) Technical solution:

[0007] Step 1: Analyze the inherent attributes of each supplier in the supply chain and identify the risk factors that have negative impacts or are vulnerable to impacts for each supplier.

[0008] Step 2: According to the task decomposition process of the equipment product, identify the risk factors that affect the product quality and delivery schedule during the product production process.

[0009] Step 3: According to the risk factors identified in Step 1 and Step 2, determine the key suppliers and key products during the supply chain construction process according to the factor intersection analysis method.

[0010] Step 4: The risk identification during the supply chain operation process is to focus on supervising the identified key suppliers and key products, and identify the changes of suppliers and products in terms of technology, quality, supply, operation, etc. for the overall supply chain, and analyze the possibility of risks occurring for the changing factors using the factor intersection analysis method.

[0011] Among them, the identification of the factors with negative impacts in the inherent attributes of suppliers in Step 1 is from aspects such as "supplier industry status", "supplier supply chain status", "supplier historical performance", "supplier basic situation", etc., analyze whether there are factors such as single suppliers, suppliers prone to quality problems, suppliers affecting the success or failure of products, foreign suppliers, key product suppliers, etc. in the supply chain, and identify the risk factors and suppliers.

[0012] Among them, the identification of product risk factors in Step 2 is from aspects such as "product complexity", "product historical situation", "product delivery situation", etc., analyze whether factors such as "low product technology maturity" and "application of new materials and new technologies in the product development and production process" are included in the product task decomposition process, and identify the association between the products and suppliers.

[0013] Among them, Step 3 is for the situation where a supplier may contain multiple risk factors, combine the supplier risk factors and product risk factors identified in Step 1 and Step 2, and identify the key suppliers and key products during the supply chain construction process.

[0014] Among them, in step four, the key suppliers and key products identified in step three are combined with the supply process, and the changes in the entire supply chain are concerned during the supply process. From the four aspects of affecting quality, technology, supply, and operation, the factor intersection analysis method is used to identify supply chain risks.

[0015] c) The risk identification method for complex equipment supply chain based on multi-factor intersection analysis of the present invention has the following advantages: (1) The supply chain risk identification method of the present invention is a risk identification method for complex equipment supply chain aiming at ensuring mission success, considering the risks of "quality", "technology", "supply", and "operation" that affect mission success, aiming at effectively improving the stability of complex equipment supply chain; (2) The present invention divides the supply chain risk identification into two processes: the supplier selection process and the supplier supply process, pays attention to the attributes of the supply chain itself during the construction process, and pays attention to the changes in the supply chain during the operation process, which can not only improve the accuracy of risk identification, but also reduce the number of suppliers supervised during the complex supply chain risk identification process; (3) The supply chain risk identification method of the present invention has good effects on complex supply chains including multiple core manufacturers. Using the factor intersection analysis method in the supply process, core manufacturers can effectively identify the risks transmitted by secondary suppliers. Description of the Drawings

[0016] Figure 1 is a risk identification method for complex equipment supply chain.

[0017] Figure 2 is the risk factor identification in the supplier selection process.

[0018] Figure 3 is the risk factor identification in the product decomposition process.

[0019] Figure 4 is the multi-factor intersection analysis method for supply chain risk.

[0020] Figure 5 is the risk analysis situation of a certain node in supply chain A.

[0021] Figure 6 is the supply chain risk identification in the supply process.

[0022] Figure 7 is the quality risk identification (example) of multi-factor intersection in the supply process.

[0023] Specific implementation steps

[0024] The attached drawings show the basic implementation process of the present invention. The specific implementation steps of the present invention are further described below.

[0025] Step 1: Supplier risk identification in the process of supply chain construction. Starting from the inherent attributes of suppliers, identify the attributes with negative impacts or those vulnerable to external risks. The risk identification of complex equipment supply chains aims to ensure the quality of equipment products and their timely delivery. Therefore, the supplier attributes mainly concerned in the supplier selection process include the nature of the supplier enterprise, the region of the supplier, the scale of the supplier, the operation and management ability of the supplier, the industry status of the supplier, the position of the supplier in the supply chain, the supplier's supply history, etc. The supplier risk identification in the process of supply chain selection is a process of sorting out supplier information in the supply chain, identifying the attributes of suppliers that may cause risks. The specific process is as follows:

[0026] a). Classify all the factors included in the suppliers in the supply chain.

[0027] b). List all the factors in the corresponding positions of the fishbone diagram;

[0028] c). Analyze the supplier factors item by item, and identify the factors vulnerable to external environment and those with negative impacts on their own attributes as supplier risk factors and list them.

[0029] Example: Analyze the risk attributes focused on in the supplier selection process from four aspects: the basic situation of the supplier, the position of the supplier in the supply chain, the industry status of the supplier, and the historical performance of the supplier. Define the factors affected by external factors and those with negative impacts as risk factors. The factors identified in a certain supply chain during the supplier selection process are shown in Table 1 below.

[0030] Table 1 Risk Identification in the Supplier Selection Process (Example)

[0031]

[0032] List the above-mentioned supplier risk factors concerned in the table on the fishbone diagram, and analyze each supplier in the supply chain one by one. The identification process is as follows Figure 2 shown.

[0033] Step 2: The process of constructing the supply chain of complex equipment is completed along with the decomposition of the product research, development and production tasks. The product composition of complex equipment is complex. During the research, development and production of some products, due to requirements such as technical maturity, foreign object control, reliability, and quality control, there may be situations of product design changes, product technical status changes, and product production baseline changes. Therefore, there are also risks for the complex equipment products themselves. The present invention identifies product risks from technical factors affecting product quality, factors affecting product delivery, and factors indicating the product production history. Among them:

[0034] Technical factors affecting quality: Used to measure the difficulty level of product development and production processes, including product complexity, product technology maturity, special process control situations, the use of new technologies and new materials, and the feasibility evaluation of process plans, etc.

[0035] Factors indicating the product's historical situation: Some historical performances during the product development and production processes, including whether quality problems have occurred, whether there have been cases where key nodes failed the first review, and whether there are unresolved quality problems, etc.

[0036] Factors affecting product delivery: Factors affecting the on-time, in-quantity, and quality-assured delivery of products, including transportation methods, the production capacity of products, product storage methods, product protection methods, whether the product has a limited lifespan, and other factors.

[0037] During the process of building a supply chain, the process of identifying product risks is similar to that of identifying supplier risks, as follows:

[0038] a). Classify the factors included in the products at all nodes in the supply chain according to technical factors affecting quality, factors affecting delivery, and factors indicating the product's historical situation.

[0039] b). List all the factors in the corresponding positions on the fishbone diagram;

[0040] c). Analyze the product factors item by item, and identify the factors that are vulnerable to external environmental influences and the factors with adverse effects due to their own attributes as product risk factors and list them.

[0041] Example: The analysis of key products during the product task decomposition process is carried out from the aspects of technical risks affecting quality, factors affecting product delivery, and the historical situation of product production. The product risks concerned during the decomposition process of a certain supply chain product are shown in Table 2 below.

[0042] Table 2 Identification of Product Risk Factors (Example)

[0043]

[0044] List the risk factors in the above table on the fishbone diagram, and during the product decomposition process, analyze and judge each product according to the concerned risk factors. The specific process is as follows Figure 3 as shown.

[0045] Step 3: Some products belong to technologies with a relatively high maturity level and relatively low technical risks, but there may be risks in aspects such as the management and operation of the suppliers; at the same time, some suppliers have no risks in terms of capabilities, but their products may be technically complex, have limited production capacity, etc.; there are also some suppliers that have more than one risk factor in the supply chain. Therefore, it is necessary to correlate the supplier risks with the product risks. The present invention adopts a method of multi-factor intersection influence to identify the risks in the process of constructing the supply chain. If a supplier has more risk factors and the corresponding products also have many risk factors, it indicates that in the subsequent operation process, the supplier and the products are likely to be interfered with, and the nodes of the supply chain here should be focused on.

[0046] The severity estimation method of the factor intersection analysis method is as follows:

[0047] Let there be k perspectives in the supplier risk identification and analysis, denoted as (N1, N2,..., N k ), where N represents that there are N factors in this perspective. For example, in Table 1, the basic situation of the supplier enterprise is counted as 1 perspective, and a total of 3 risk factors can be identified.

[0048] Let there be j perspectives in the product identification and analysis, denoted as (M1, M2,..., M j ), where M represents that there are M factors in this perspective. For example, in Table 2, the technical factors affecting quality are counted as 1 perspective, including 5 factors.

[0049] Let a i , b i respectively represent the weight of each risk analysis perspective of the supplier and the weight of each risk analysis perspective of the product. For example, a1 represents the risk weight assigned from the analysis perspective of "the basic situation of the supply", and b1 represents the risk factor weight assigned from the analysis perspective of "the technical factors affecting quality".

[0050] The present invention conducts risk identification based on ensuring product quality and supply chain stability. Therefore, in the multi-factor intersection analysis, the perspective weights of factors affecting product quality and supply chain stability are high.

[0051] Therefore, the risk severity estimation algorithm under the factor intersection method is:

[0052]

[0053] In the above formula, P represents the evaluation score of the multi-factor intersection risk factors, n i and m i respectively represent how many risk factors there are in each analysis perspective, represents the proportion of the risk factors identified in the i-th analysis perspective. The larger this value is, the more risk factors there are in this analysis perspective; represents the proportion of the risk factors in the i-th product perspective.

[0054] The following classification results can be obtained according to the above formula:

[0055] 1. When Both the supplier risk factors and the product risk factors are few, belonging to general risks;

[0056] 2. When There are many supplier risk factors and few product risk factors, belonging to suppliers that require key attention;

[0057] 3. When There are few supplier risk factors and many product risk factors, belonging to products that require key attention;

[0058] 4. When Both the supplier risk factors and the product risk factors are many, belonging to key nodes that require attention in the supply chain.

[0059] Example: According to the risk analysis perspectives and risk factors determined in Table 1 and Table 2, a supplier in a certain supply chain is a high-pollution and high-energy-consuming enterprise. The production capacity of the supplier's product is restricted by the national environmental protection policy, and there have been cases of delayed delivery when the market demand is excessive. Moreover, the product is a key product, explosive, with storage and transportation risks;

[0060] Let the weights of each supply chain risk identification dimension be the same. According to the identification scope of the supplier risk factors in Table 1, there is no risk in the basic information of the supplier; there are 2 supplier supply chain status risk factors, namely single supplier and key product supplier; there is 1 supplier industry status risk, which is a high-pollution and high-energy-consuming supplier; there is 1 supplier historical performance risk, which is delayed delivery. Among the product risk factors, there are only 2 risk factors affecting product delivery, namely product production capacity and product transportation risk. Then the risk of a certain node in Supply Chain A is: This node belongs to a general risk supplier node.

[0061] Step 4: The risk identification in the operation of the supply chain mainly focuses on identifying external risks that may cause instability in supply activities and changes within the supply chain, and identifying risk factors from four aspects: technical risk, quality risk, supply risk, and operation risk. The risk identification in the operation process of the supply chain is a process of supervising changes, mainly considering external environmental changes, the transmission and implementation of supplier quality requirements, the feasibility of design and process plans, changes in technical maturity, and the management of product process quality control, etc.

[0062] This process also uses the factor intersection analysis method, and the dimensions of factor intersection analysis are carried out from four dimensions: technical risk, quality risk, supply risk, and operation risk.

[0063] Technical risks mainly involve monitoring changes in product production technology, such as whether key products identified during the supply chain construction process have undergone technical status changes, whether there have been changes in design plans / production processes, whether the feasibility analysis results of design plans / process plans are good, and whether there are new processes or process improvements in the product production process.

[0064] Quality risks are mainly identified from the product production process, including the implementation of product quality assurance requirements, product process quality control, whether the product has had quality problems, whether the product has quality problems that have not been resolved, whether the product technical status indicators are met, product qualification rate, etc.

[0065] Supply risks are monitored from the perspectives of supplier capacity, supplier supply willingness, and emergencies, including: whether the supplier's capacity is limited, supplier contract performance, whether it will be banned by foreign countries, whether the supply cycle is long, etc.;

[0066] Business risks are identified from the perspective of national policies and market competition, including: whether the supplier is a high-pollution and high-energy-consuming supplier, whether the supplier's products cannot be produced due to national policies, whether the supplier is a sunset industry and may stop production at any time due to market competition, etc.

[0067] The risk identification in the above four dimensions is not only applicable to key suppliers and key products identified during the supply chain construction process, but also to other suppliers and products that encounter related situations during the supply chain operation. The risk identification method is also a factor intersection analysis.

[0068] The intersection analysis of factors in the supply process is different from that in the construction process. The intersection of risk factors is not just a parallel relationship, but also a correlation relationship, which is related to the production process of specific equipment products. For example, after a change in the technical status of a product occurs, it is necessary to determine multiple factors such as technical feasibility, technical maturity, impact on indicators, and reliability evaluation of the final product in order to determine whether the change in the technical status is a risk. The specific determination process is as follows.

[0069] Example: When determining quality risk, it is found that there is a difference in the quality of two consecutive batches of products from the supplier, resulting in fluctuations in the product qualification rate. The inspection and acceptance method for this product is random inspection. According to the multi-factor intersection analysis method of the present invention, the supply chain risk analysis is as follows Figure 7As shown in the figure. The dark part in the figure represents the situations that have occurred, and the solid arrows represent the transmission direction of risk factors. When the situation of "quality differences exist among different batches of products" occurs, it affects the qualified rate and return rate of products. In the case of sampling inspection by the purchaser, there may be products with poor quality flowing into the production workshop, bringing potential quality problems to the superior products. In serious cases, it may cause delays in the production tasks of complex equipment, etc. This product and this supplier are risk products and risk suppliers. All products that have been used at the present stage should be inspected, and other using units should be notified.

Claims

1. A supply chain risk identification method based on factor intersection analysis, characterized in that: It includes the following steps: Step 1: Analyze the inherent attributes of each supplier in the supply chain, and identify the risk factors that have negative impacts or are vulnerable to impacts for each supplier; Step 2: According to the task decomposition process of the equipment product, identify the risk factors that affect the product quality and the product delivery schedule during the product production process; Step 3: According to the risk factors identified in Step 1 and Step 2, determine the key suppliers and key products during the supply chain construction process according to the factor intersection analysis method; Step 4: The risk identification during the supply chain operation process focuses on the identified key suppliers and key products, and identifies the changes in suppliers and products in terms of technology, quality, supply, and operation for the overall supply chain. The factor intersection analysis method is used to analyze the possibility of risks occurring for the changing factors; Among them, in Step 3, during the supply chain construction process, the risk identification process for product risks is similar to that for supplier risks, specifically as follows: a). Classify the factors included in the products of all nodes in the supply chain according to the factors affecting technology, factors affecting delivery, and factors of product historical situation; b). List all the factors in the corresponding positions of the fishbone diagram; c). Analyze the product factors item by item, and find out the factors that are vulnerable to external environmental impacts and the factors with negative impacts in their own attributes, and list them as product risk factors; The severity estimation method of the factor intersection analysis method is as follows: Let there be k perspectives in the supplier risk identification and analysis, denoted as (N1, N2, …, N k ), where N represents that there are N factors in this perspective; Let the product recognition analysis have j perspectives, denoted as (M1, M2, …, M j ), where M represents that there are M factors in this perspective; Let a i , b i represent the weight of each risk analysis angle of the supplier and the weight of each risk analysis angle of the product respectively; the risk severity estimation algorithm under the factor intersection method is as follows: In the above formula, P represents the evaluation score of the multi-factor intersection risk factor, n i and m i respectively represent how many risk factors there are in each analysis perspective. represents the proportion of risk factors identified in the i-th analysis perspective. The larger this value is, the more risk factors there are in this analysis perspective; represents the proportion of risk factors in the i-th product perspective; The following classification results are obtained according to the above formula: When Both the supplier risk factors and the product risk factors are few, belonging to general risks; When There are many supplier risk factors and few product risk factors, belonging to suppliers that require key attention; When There are few supplier risk factors and many product risk factors, which belong to the products that require key attention; When Both the supplier risk factors and the product risk factors are numerous, belonging to the key nodes that the supply chain focuses on.

2. The supply chain risk identification method based on factor intersection analysis according to claim 1, wherein: In Step 1, the factors with negative impacts in the inherent attributes of suppliers are identified from the aspects of "supplier industry status", "supplier supply chain status", "supplier historical performance", and "basic situation of the supplier", analyze whether there are factors such as single suppliers, suppliers prone to quality problems, suppliers affecting the success or failure of products, foreign suppliers, and key product suppliers in the supply chain, and identify the risk factors and suppliers; 3. A supply chain risk identification method based on factor intersection analysis according to claim 1, characterized in that: In Step 2, the identification of product risk factors is from the aspects of: "product complexity", "historical situation of the product", and "product delivery situation", analyze whether the product task decomposition process includes factors such as "low product technology maturity" and "application of new materials and new technologies in the product research, development, and production process", and identify the association between the products and suppliers; 4. The supply chain risk identification method based on factor intersection analysis according to claim 1, wherein: Step 3 is for the situation where a supplier may include multiple risk factors. Combine the supplier risk factors and product risk factors identified in Step 1 and Step 2 to identify the key suppliers and key products during the supply chain construction process; 5. The supply chain risk identification method based on factor intersection analysis according to claim 1, wherein: In Step 4, combine the key suppliers and key products identified in Step 3 with the supply process, pay attention to the changes in the entire supply chain during the supply process, and use the factor intersection analysis method to identify supply chain risks from the four aspects of affecting quality, technology, supply, and operation; 6. A supply chain risk identification method based on factor intersection analysis according to claim 1 or 2, characterized in that: In Step 1, identify the attributes of suppliers that may cause risks, and the specific process is as follows: a). Classify the factors included in all suppliers in the supply chain; b). List all the factors in the corresponding positions of the fishbone diagram; c). Analyze the supplier factors item by item, and find out the factors that are vulnerable to external environmental impacts and the factors with negative impacts in their own attributes, and list them as supplier risk factors; 7. A supply chain risk identification method based on factor intersection analysis according to claim 1 or 3, characterized in that: In step 2, technical factors affecting quality: used to measure the difficulty of the product development and production process, including product complexity, product technology maturity, special process control, use of new technologies and new materials, and feasibility evaluation of process solutions; factors indicating product history: some historical performance in the product development and production process, including whether quality problems have occurred, whether there are key nodes that have not passed the first review, and whether there are quality problems that have not been resolved; Factors affecting product delivery: Factors affecting the on-time, on-quantity and quality delivery of products, including transportation methods, product production capacity, product storage methods, product protection methods, and whether the product has a limited lifespan.

8. A supply chain risk identification method based on factor intersection analysis according to claim 1 or 5, characterized in that: In step 4, the factor intersection analysis method is used. The dimensions of factor intersection analysis are technical risk, quality risk, supply risk, and operational risk. Technical risks are the supervision of changes in product production technology, including whether the key products identified in the supply chain construction process have undergone technical status changes, whether there have been changes in the design plan / production process, whether the feasibility analysis results of the design plan / process plan are good, and whether there are new processes or process improvements in the product production process; Quality risks are identified from the product production process, including the implementation of product quality assurance requirements, product process quality control, whether the product has had quality problems, whether the product has quality problems that have not been resolved, whether the product technical status indicators are met, and the product qualification rate. Supply risks are monitored from the perspectives of supplier capacity, supplier supply willingness, and emergencies, including: whether the supplier's capacity is limited, supplier contract performance, whether it will be banned by foreign countries, and whether the supply cycle is long; Operational risks are identified from the perspective of national policies and market competition, including: whether the supplier is a high-pollution and high-energy-consuming supplier, whether the supplier's products are affected by national policies and cannot be reproduced, whether the supplier is a sunset industry and may be discontinued at any time due to market competition; The risk identification in the above four dimensions is not only applicable to key suppliers and key products identified during the supply chain construction process, but also to other suppliers and products that encounter related situations during the supply chain operation. The risk identification method is also a factor intersection analysis.

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