Near-earth object impact flux evaluation method, device, equipment and medium

Abstract

A method for evaluating the flux of near-earth objects colliding with the earth, comprising: dividing the solar system orbital space into a plurality of space units according to a preset heliocentric distance step and a preset yellow latitude step with the heliocenter as the center; calculating the spatial density of near-earth objects in the space unit; establishing a geocentric ecliptic inertial coordinate system, obtaining the relative speed of the near-earth object and the earth in the geocentric ecliptic inertial coordinate system; and calculating the impact flux of the near-earth object relative to the earth based on the spatial density and the relative speed.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This disclosure relates to the field of near-Earth asteroid monitoring and early warning technology, and in particular to a method, device, electronic equipment and medium for assessing the impact flux of near-Earth objects on Earth. Background Technology

[0002] Near-Earth asteroids primarily originate from the asteroid belt (main belt) between the orbits of Mars and Jupiter, formed millions of years ago through collisional disintegration events; therefore, their size distribution follows a power-law distribution. In the early solar system, planets formed near the centers of nebulae, and asteroids were mainly composed of clay and silicate rocks, as well as mixtures of metals such as iron and nickel. Main-belt asteroids are located between 2.17 and 3.64 AU, and more than 120,000 have been observed so far. Under the gravitational influence of massive celestial bodies, some main-belt asteroids gradually deviated from their original orbits, entering the vicinity of Earth's orbit and becoming near-Earth objects. Generally, the orbital period of these asteroids is periodically related to that of their corresponding large planets.

[0003] The threat posed by near-Earth objects (NEOs) to Earth cannot be ignored. It is estimated that the relative speed between NEOs and Earth is generally 11–73 km / s, and the relative speed with Earth's satellites can reach 4–81 km / s. In the event of a hypervelocity impact, a NEO larger than 140 meters can cause severe damage to an entire region or even continental plates; an impact from a NEO larger than 1 km can lead to a global catastrophe.

[0004] Current research on the risk of near-Earth objects to Earth mainly focuses on parameters such as the size of near-Earth objects and the frequency of impacts. However, a systematic analysis of the differences in the probability of near-Earth object impacts at different altitudes and azimuths in the Earth's geocentric ecliptic velocity coordinate system has not yet been conducted. Summary of the Invention

[0005] In view of the above problems, the present invention provides a method, apparatus, electronic device and medium for assessing the near-Earth object impact flux.

[0006] One aspect of this disclosure provides a method for assessing the impact flux of a near-Earth object to Earth, comprising: dividing the solar system orbital space into multiple spatial units centered on the heliocenter according to a preset heliocentric distance step and a preset ecliptic latitude step; calculating the spatial density of the near-Earth object within its respective spatial unit; establishing a geocentric ecliptic inertial coordinate system and obtaining the relative velocity between the near-Earth object and Earth in the geocentric ecliptic inertial coordinate system; and calculating the impact flux of the near-Earth object relative to Earth based on the spatial density and the relative velocity.

[0007] Optionally, the calculation of the spatial density of near-Earth objects within their respective space units includes:

[0008] ;

[0009]

[0010]

[0011] ;

[0012] ;

[0013] ;

[0014] ;

[0015] in, Represents the spatial density, and These represent the heliocentric distance intervals of the spatial units, respectively. The starting point and the ending point, and These represent the ecliptic latitude intervals of the spatial unit, respectively. The starting point and the ending point, This represents the semi-major axis of the near-Earth object's orbit. This represents the eccentricity of the near-Earth object. This indicates the orbital inclination of the near-Earth object. Indicates perihelion. This represents the aphelion. Optionally, the geocentric ecliptic inertial coordinate system has the Earth's center as its origin, the direction of the Earth's orbital velocity as the X-axis, the direction of the normal vector of the Earth's orbital plane as the Z-axis, and the direction from the Earth's center to the Sun as the Y-axis.

[0016] Optionally, establishing a geocentric ecliptic inertial coordinate system and obtaining the relative velocity of the near-Earth object and the Earth in the geocentric ecliptic inertial coordinate system includes: calculating the absolute velocities of the near-Earth object and the Earth relative to the heliocenter; calculating the velocities of the near-Earth object and the Earth in the geocentric ecliptic inertial coordinate system based on the absolute velocities; and calculating the difference between the velocities of the near-Earth object and the Earth in the geocentric ecliptic inertial coordinate system to obtain the relative velocity.

[0017] Optionally, the formulas for calculating the absolute velocities of the near-Earth objects and the Earth relative to the heliocenter include:

[0018] ;

[0019] in, Represents absolute velocity. Represents the solar gravitational constant. This indicates the calculation of the heliocentric distance of the near-Earth object or Earth. This refers to the semi-major axis of the orbit of the near-Earth object or the Earth.

[0020] Optionally, calculating the velocities of the near-Earth object and the Earth in the geocentric ecliptic inertial coordinate system based on the absolute velocity includes:

[0021] ;

[0022] ;

[0023] ;

[0024] in, This represents the velocity in the Y direction in the geocentric ecliptic inertial coordinate system. This represents the velocity in the X direction in the geocentric ecliptic inertial coordinate system. This represents the velocity in the Z direction in the geocentric ecliptic inertial coordinate system.

[0025] Optionally, calculating the impact flux of the near-Earth object relative to Earth based on the spatial density and the relative velocity includes:

[0026] ;

[0027] in, The near-Earth object spatial density, This indicates the relative velocity. This represents the flux.

[0028] This disclosure also provides a device for assessing the impact flux of a near-Earth object on Earth, comprising: a spatial division module for dividing the solar system orbital space into multiple spatial units centered on the heliocenter according to a preset heliocentric distance step and a preset ecliptic latitude step; a spatial density calculation module for calculating the spatial density of the near-Earth object within its respective spatial unit; a relative velocity calculation module for establishing a geocentric ecliptic inertial coordinate system and obtaining the relative velocity between the near-Earth object and Earth in the geocentric ecliptic inertial coordinate system; and a flux calculation module for calculating the impact flux of the near-Earth object relative to Earth based on the spatial density and the relative velocity.

[0029] Another aspect of this disclosure provides an electronic device including: a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein when the processor executes the computer program, it implements the various steps in the near-Earth object impact flux assessment method.

[0030] Another aspect of this disclosure provides a computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, which, when executed by a processor, implements the various steps in the near-Earth object impact flux assessment method.

[0031] The above-described at least one technical solution adopted in the embodiments of this disclosure can achieve the following beneficial effects:

[0032] This publication proposes a method for calculating the impact flux of near-Earth objects on Earth, enabling a statistical assessment of the patterns of near-Earth planetary impacts on Earth. The research findings can lay the foundation for research in related fields such as near-Earth asteroid monitoring and early warning. Attached Figure Description

[0033] To gain a more complete understanding of this disclosure and its advantages, reference will now be made to the following description taken in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, wherein:

[0034] Figure 1 The illustration shows a schematic diagram of a method for assessing the near-Earth object impact flux provided in an embodiment of this disclosure;

[0035] Figure 2 The illustration shows a schematic diagram of a heliocentric inertial coordinate system provided in an embodiment of the present disclosure;

[0036] Figure 3 The illustration shows a schematic diagram of a geocentric ecliptic inertial coordinate system provided in an embodiment of the present disclosure;

[0037] Figure 4 This illustration schematically shows a distribution diagram of an impact flux percentage provided by an embodiment of the present disclosure;

[0038] Figure 5 This schematic diagram illustrates a structural block diagram of a near-Earth object impact flux assessment device provided in an embodiment of the present disclosure.

[0039] Figure 6 The schematic diagram illustrates a structural block diagram of an electronic device provided in an embodiment of the present disclosure. Detailed Implementation

[0040] The embodiments of the present disclosure will now be described with reference to the accompanying drawings. However, it should be understood that these descriptions are exemplary only and are not intended to limit the scope of the disclosure. In the following detailed description, numerous specific details are set forth to provide a thorough understanding of the embodiments of the present disclosure for ease of explanation. However, it will be apparent that one or more embodiments may be practiced without these specific details. Furthermore, descriptions of well-known structures and techniques are omitted in the following description to avoid unnecessarily obscuring the concepts of the present disclosure.

[0041] The terminology used herein is for the purpose of describing particular embodiments only and is not intended to limit this disclosure. The terms “comprising,” “including,” etc., as used herein indicate the presence of the stated features, steps, operations, and / or components, but do not exclude the presence or addition of one or more other features, steps, operations, or components.

[0042] All terms used herein (including technical and scientific terms) have the meanings commonly understood by those skilled in the art, unless otherwise defined. It should be noted that the terms used herein are to be interpreted in a manner consistent with the context of this specification, and not in an idealized or overly rigid way.

[0043] The accompanying drawings show some block diagrams and / or flowcharts. It should be understood that some blocks or combinations thereof in the block diagrams and / or flowcharts can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions can be provided to a processor of a general-purpose computer, a special-purpose computer, or other programmable data processing device, so that when executed by the processor, these instructions can create means for implementing the functions / operations described in these block diagrams and / or flowcharts.

[0044] Therefore, the technology disclosed herein can be implemented in hardware and / or software (including firmware, microcode, etc.). Additionally, the technology disclosed herein can take the form of a computer program product stored on a computer-readable medium, which can be used by or in conjunction with an instruction execution system. In the context of this disclosure, a computer-readable medium can be any medium capable of containing, storing, transmitting, propagating, or transmitting instructions. For example, a computer-readable medium can include, but is not limited to, electrical, magnetic, optical, electromagnetic, infrared, or semiconductor systems, devices, apparatuses, or propagation media. Specific examples of computer-readable media include: magnetic storage devices, such as magnetic tape or hard disk drives (HDDs); optical storage devices, such as optical discs (CD-ROMs); memories, such as random access memory (RAM) or flash memory; and / or wired / wireless communication links.

[0045] Explanation of basic terminology:

[0046] Near-Earth objects are a collective term for asteroids, comets, and large meteoroids whose orbits intersect with Earth's orbit and thus pose a potential collision hazard.

[0047] Spatial density refers to the statistical estimate of the number of objects per unit volume.

[0048] The obliquity of the ecliptic is the angle between the Earth's orbital plane (ecliptic plane) and the equatorial plane (celestial equator plane), also known as the solar declination or the greatest elongation of the ecliptic. The obliquity of the ecliptic of the Earth in its revolution around the Sun is approximately 23°26'.

[0049] Flux refers specifically to the estimated number of targets (near-Earth objects) passing through a unit area per unit time.

[0050] The heliocentric distance refers to the distance between a certain location in the solar system and the center of mass of the sun.

[0051] The ecliptic latitude refers to the latitude of a certain spatial location in the solar system within the heliocentric inertial frame of reference.

[0052] AU, a unit of distance, 1 AU = 1.496 × 10⁻⁶ 8 km. 1 AU is also the average distance between the Sun and the Earth.

[0053] like Figure 1 As shown, this disclosure provides a method for evaluating the near-Earth object impact flux, including steps S110 to S140.

[0054] S110 divides the solar system orbital space into multiple spatial units with the heliocentric point as the center and according to the preset heliocentric distance step and preset ecliptic latitude step.

[0055] S120 calculates the spatial density of near-Earth objects within their respective space units.

[0056] S130, establish a geocentric ecliptic inertial coordinate system to obtain the relative velocities of near-Earth objects and the Earth in the geocentric ecliptic inertial coordinate system.

[0057] S140 calculates the impact flux of near-Earth objects relative to Earth based on spatial density and relative velocity.

[0058] According to the method provided in the embodiments of this disclosure, it is possible to assess the statistical regularity of near-Earth planet impacts on Earth.

[0059] The specific steps are as follows.

[0060] According to step S110, the solar system orbital space is divided into multiple spatial units, using the heliocentric inertial coordinate system as the reference coordinate system for spatial division. The heliocentric inertial coordinate system is as follows: Figure 2 As shown, the X-axis is the direction of the vernal equinox, the Z-axis is the direction of the normal vector of the Earth's orbital plane, and the Y-axis follows the right-hand rule. When dividing space into units, for example, with the heliocenter as the center, a heliocentric distance step of 0.001 AU, and an ecliptic latitude step of 1°, the solar system's orbital space is divided into a series of spatial units.

[0061] According to step S120, the spatial density of near-Earth objects within their respective space units is calculated using the following formula:

[0062] ;

[0063]

[0064]

[0065] ;

[0066] ;

[0067] ;

[0068] ;

[0069] in, Indicates spatial density, and These represent the intervals of heliocentric distance for spatial units. The starting point and the ending point, and Representing the ecliptic latitude intervals of the spatial unit. The starting point and the ending point, Indicates the semi-major axis of the orbit of a near-Earth object. The eccentricity of a near-Earth object. Indicates the orbital inclination of near-Earth objects. Indicates perihelion. Indicates aphelion. For example... Figure 3 As shown, according to step S130, a geocentric ecliptic inertial coordinate system is established. The geocentric ecliptic inertial coordinate system has the Earth's center as the origin, the direction of the Earth's orbital velocity as the X-axis, the direction of the Earth's orbital plane normal vector as the Z-axis, and the direction from the Earth's center to the Sun's center as the Y-axis.

[0070] According to step S130, a geocentric ecliptic inertial coordinate system is established, and the relative velocities of near-Earth objects and the Earth in the geocentric ecliptic inertial coordinate system are obtained, including steps S131 to S133.

[0071] S131, calculate the absolute velocities of near-Earth objects and the Earth relative to the heliocenter, respectively.

[0072] For a celestial body orbiting the Sun, the solar gravitational constant is: Among them, the gravitational constant =6.67259×10 -11 N·m² / kg², solar mass =2.0*10 30 .

[0073] The absolute velocity of a near-Earth object or the Earth relative to the heliocenter is:

[0074] ;

[0075] in, Represents absolute velocity. Represents the solar gravitational constant. This indicates the calculation of the heliocentric distance of the aforementioned near-Earth objects or the Earth. This refers to the semi-major axis of the orbit of the near-Earth object or the Earth.

[0076] S132, based on absolute velocity, calculates the velocities of near-Earth objects and the Earth in the geocentric ecliptic inertial coordinate system.

[0077] The specific calculation formulas include:

[0078] ;

[0079] ;

[0080] ;

[0081] in, This represents the velocity in the Y direction in the geocentric ecliptic inertial coordinate system. This represents the velocity in the X direction in the geocentric ecliptic inertial coordinate system. This represents the velocity in the Z direction in the geocentric ecliptic inertial coordinate system.

[0082] S133 calculates the difference in velocity between the near-Earth object and the Earth in the geocentric ecliptic inertial coordinate system to obtain the relative velocity.

[0083] Let the velocity of a near-Earth object in the Earth-centered ecliptic inertial coordinate system be . The Earth's velocity in the ecliptic inertial coordinate system is .

[0084] The relative speed between the two is .

[0085] According to step S140, based on spatial density and relative velocity, the impact flux of near-Earth objects relative to Earth is calculated using the following formula:

[0086] ;

[0087] in, Near-Earth objects spatial density, Represents relative velocity. This represents flux.

[0088] set up The three-axis components in the geocentric ecliptic velocity coordinate system are: The corresponding elevation angle azimuth angle is .

[0089] Taking the orbital elements of 23,897 near-Earth objects published by the International Astronomical Union as an example, the impact flux between near-Earth objects and Earth is calculated according to the method provided in this embodiment. The calculation results show that the total impact flux of the 23,897 near-Earth objects to Earth is 9.2 × 10⁻⁶. -13 / km 2 / year, based on the calculation results, can be obtained as follows: Figure 4 The diagram shows the distribution of impact flux percentages. Based on this method, a statistical assessment of the patterns of near-Earth planet impacts on Earth can be achieved, and the research results can lay the foundation for research in related fields such as near-Earth asteroid monitoring and early warning.

[0090] like Figure 5 As shown, this disclosure provides a near-Earth object impact flux assessment device, including: a spatial division module 510, a spatial density calculation module 520, a relative velocity calculation module 530, and a flux calculation module 540.

[0091] The space division module 510 is used to divide the solar system orbital space into multiple spatial units with the heliocentric point as the center and according to the preset heliocentric distance step and preset ecliptic latitude step.

[0092] The spatial density calculation module 520 is used to calculate the spatial density of near-Earth objects within their respective space units.

[0093] The relative velocity calculation module 530 is used to establish a geocentric ecliptic inertial coordinate system and obtain the relative velocities of near-Earth objects and the Earth in the geocentric ecliptic inertial coordinate system.

[0094] The flux calculation module 540 is used to calculate the impact flux of the near-Earth object relative to the Earth based on spatial density and relative velocity.

[0095] Understandably, this device is similar to... Figure 1 The methods shown have the same technical features and effects, so they will not be described in detail here.

[0096] It is understood that the spatial partitioning module 510, spatial density calculation module 520, relative velocity calculation module 530, and flux calculation module 540 can be implemented in one module, or any one of these modules can be split into multiple modules. Alternatively, at least part of the functionality of one or more of these modules can be combined with at least part of the functionality of other modules and implemented in one module. According to embodiments of the present invention, at least one of the spatial partitioning module 510, spatial density calculation module 520, relative velocity calculation module 530, and flux calculation module 540 can be at least partially implemented as hardware circuitry, such as a field-programmable gate array (FPGA), a programmable logic array (PLA), a system-on-a-chip, a system-on-a-substrate, a system-on-package, an application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC), or any other reasonable manner of integrating or packaging circuitry, or as hardware or firmware implementations, or as appropriate combinations of software, hardware, and firmware implementations. Alternatively, at least one of the spatial partitioning module 510, spatial density calculation module 520, relative velocity calculation module 530, and flux calculation module 540 can be at least partially implemented as a computer program module, which can perform the functions of the corresponding module when the program is run by a computer.

[0097] Figure 6 The schematic diagram illustrates a structural block diagram of an electronic device provided in an embodiment of the present disclosure.

[0098] like Figure 6 As shown, the electronic device described in this embodiment includes: electronic device 600 including processor 610 and computer-readable storage medium 620. This electronic device 600 can perform the functions described above (see reference 610). Figure 1 The described method enables the detection of specific operations.

[0099] Specifically, processor 610 may include, for example, a general-purpose microprocessor, an instruction set processor and / or an associated chipset and / or a special-purpose microprocessor (e.g., an application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC)), etc. Processor 610 may also include onboard memory for caching purposes. Processor 610 may be used for executing reference... Figure 1 The method flow described according to embodiments of this disclosure refers to a single processing unit or multiple processing units performing different actions.

[0100] Computer-readable storage medium 620 may be any medium capable of containing, storing, transmitting, propagating, or transmitting instructions. For example, readable storage media may include, but is not limited to, electrical, magnetic, optical, electromagnetic, infrared, or semiconductor systems, devices, apparatuses, or propagation media. Specific examples of readable storage media include: magnetic storage devices such as magnetic tape or hard disk drives (HDDs); optical storage devices such as optical discs (CD-ROMs); memories such as random access memory (RAM) or flash memory; and / or wired / wireless communication links.

[0101] Computer-readable storage medium 620 may include computer program 621, which may include code / computer-executable instructions that, when executed by processor 610, cause processor 610 to perform, for example, the above-described combination. Figure 1 The described method and any variations thereof.

[0102] Computer program 621 can be configured to have computer program code, for example, including computer program modules. For example, in an exemplary embodiment, the code in computer program 621 may include one or more program modules, such as 621A, module 621B, etc. It should be noted that the division and number of modules are not fixed. Those skilled in the art can use appropriate program modules or combinations of program modules according to actual circumstances. When these combinations of program modules are executed by processor 610, processor 610 can perform, for example, the above-described combinations... Figure 1 The described method and any variations thereof.

[0103] According to an embodiment of the present invention, at least one of the spatial partitioning module 510, spatial density calculation module 520, relative velocity calculation module 530, and flux calculation module 540 can be implemented as a reference. Figure 6 The described computer program module, when executed by processor 610, can perform the corresponding operations described above.

[0104] This disclosure also provides a computer-readable medium, which may be included in the device / apparatus / system described in the above embodiments; or it may exist independently and not assembled into the device / apparatus / system. The computer-readable medium carries one or more programs that, when executed, implement the method according to the embodiments of this disclosure.

[0105] Those skilled in the art will understand that the features described in the various embodiments and / or claims of this disclosure can be combined or combined in various ways, even if such combinations or combinations are not explicitly described in this disclosure. In particular, the features described in the various embodiments and / or claims of this disclosure can be combined or combined in various ways without departing from the spirit and teachings of this disclosure. All such combinations and / or combinations fall within the scope of this disclosure.

[0106] Although this disclosure has been shown and described with reference to specific exemplary embodiments thereof, those skilled in the art will understand that various changes in form and detail may be made to this disclosure without departing from the spirit and scope of the disclosure as defined by the appended claims and their equivalents. Therefore, the scope of this disclosure should not be limited to the above embodiments, but should be defined not only by the appended claims, but also by their equivalents.

Claims

1. A method for assessing the impact flux of near-Earth objects on Earth, characterized in that, include: Centered on the heliocenter, the solar system orbital space is divided into multiple spatial units according to the preset heliocentric distance step and the preset ecliptic latitude step. Calculate the spatial density of near-Earth objects within their respective space units; Establish a geocentric ecliptic inertial coordinate system and obtain the relative velocities of the near-Earth celestial body and the Earth in the geocentric ecliptic inertial coordinate system, including: Calculate the absolute velocities of the near-Earth objects and the Earth relative to the heliocenter, respectively; Based on the absolute velocity, calculate the velocities of the near-Earth object and the Earth in the geocentric ecliptic inertial coordinate system; The relative velocity is obtained by calculating the difference between the velocities of the near-Earth object and the Earth in the geocentric ecliptic inertial coordinate system. The geocentric ecliptic inertial coordinate system has the Earth's center as its origin, the direction of the Earth's orbital velocity as the X-axis, the direction of the Earth's orbital plane normal vector as the Z-axis, and the direction from the Earth's center to the Sun's center as the Y-axis. Based on the spatial density and the relative velocity, the impact flux of the near-Earth object relative to Earth is calculated, including: ； in, The near-Earth object spatial density, This indicates the relative velocity. This represents the flux.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The calculation of the spatial density of near-Earth objects within their respective space units includes: ； ； ； ； ； in, Represents the spatial density, and These represent the heliocentric distance intervals of the spatial units, respectively. The starting point and the ending point, and These represent the ecliptic latitude intervals of the spatial unit, respectively. The starting point and the ending point, This represents the semi-major axis of the near-Earth object's orbit. This represents the eccentricity of the near-Earth object. This indicates the orbital inclination of the near-Earth object. Indicates perihelion. Indicates aphelion.

3. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The formulas for calculating the absolute velocities of the near-Earth objects and the Earth relative to the heliocenter include: ； in, Represents absolute velocity. Represents the solar gravitational constant. This indicates the calculation of the heliocentric distance of the near-Earth object or Earth. This refers to the semi-major axis of the orbit of the near-Earth object or the Earth.

4. The method according to claim 3, characterized in that, The calculation of the velocities of the near-Earth object and the Earth in the geocentric ecliptic inertial coordinate system based on the absolute velocity includes: ； ； ； in, This represents the velocity in the Y direction in the geocentric ecliptic inertial coordinate system. This represents the velocity in the X direction in the geocentric ecliptic inertial coordinate system. This represents the velocity in the Z direction in the geocentric ecliptic inertial coordinate system.

5. A device for assessing the near-Earth object impact flux, applied to the near-Earth object impact flux assessment method as described in any one of claims 1 to 4, characterized in that, include: The spatial division module is used to divide the solar system orbital space into multiple spatial units with the heliocentric point as the center and according to the preset heliocentric distance step and preset ecliptic latitude step. The spatial density calculation module is used to calculate the spatial density of near-Earth objects within their respective space units; The relative velocity calculation module is used to establish a geocentric ecliptic inertial coordinate system and obtain the relative velocities of the near-Earth celestial body and the Earth in the geocentric ecliptic inertial coordinate system. The flux calculation module is used to calculate the impact flux of the near-Earth object relative to the Earth based on the spatial density and the relative velocity.

6. An electronic device, comprising: A memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, characterized in that, when the processor executes the computer program, it implements each step of the near-Earth object impact flux assessment method according to any one of claims 1 to 4.

7. A computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, characterized in that, When the computer program is executed by the processor, it implements each step of the method for evaluating the near-Earth object impact flux according to any one of claims 1 to 4.

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