A vector main aftershock risk analysis model construction and early warning method and system

Abstract

The application provides a vector primary aftershock risk analysis model construction and early warning method and system, establishes a primary aftershock database of a target engineering structure; at least one characteristic signal related to each primary aftershock is obtained from the primary aftershock database; data analysis is performed on the target engineering structure by using the characteristic signal, and each analysis result is obtained; each analysis result is combined and calculated to determine a vector primary aftershock vulnerability surface and a vector primary aftershock danger surface; the vector primary aftershock vulnerability surface and the vector primary aftershock danger surface are integrated and calculated to determine a vector primary aftershock risk analysis model. The problem that a traditional earthquake risk analysis process cannot consider aftershock events is solved, and a three-dimensional primary aftershock risk surface is obtained. The vector primary aftershock risk analysis method can be used to establish a risk analysis model of a target engineering site under the action of a primary aftershock sequence and evaluate the earthquake risk of the target engineering site under the action of the primary aftershock sequence.

Description

TECHNICAL FIELD

[0001] The application belongs to the technical field of earthquake risk and seismic damage prediction and analysis, and particularly relates to a vector type main aftershock risk analysis model construction and early warning method and system. BACKGROUND

[0002] In recent years, earthquake disasters occur frequently, and many strong earthquake events have caused a large number of casualties and property losses. Earthquake disasters have a huge impact on economic and social development. At present, the existing earthquake risk analysis can only consider the effect of one earthquake (main earthquake) and ignores the potential threat of aftershocks to structures. However, many strong earthquake events show that a series of aftershocks often occur after the main earthquake, and strong aftershocks also occur. The structure is likely to have suffered serious damage after the main earthquake, and the safety performance of the structure is difficult to be effectively guaranteed after experiencing the impact of aftershocks again.

[0003] Earthquake risk analysis can comprehensively consider the probability of an engineering structure exceeding different limit states under specific site conditions, and can comprehensively consider structure information and site information. However, the earthquake risk analysis at present fails to consider the influence of aftershocks, and this defect makes it impossible to comprehensively and accurately evaluate the earthquake risk level of the engineering structure. SUMMARY

[0004] Therefore, the embodiments of the present application provide a vector type main aftershock risk analysis model construction and early warning method and system to solve the problem that the earthquake risk analysis in the prior art fails to consider the influence of aftershocks, which leads to the inability to comprehensively and accurately evaluate the earthquake risk level of the engineering structure.

[0005] According to a first aspect, the embodiments of the present application provide a vector type main aftershock risk analysis model construction method, which comprises: establishing a main aftershock database of a target engineering structure; obtaining at least one characteristic signal related to each main aftershock from the main aftershock database; performing data analysis on the target engineering structure by using the characteristic signal to obtain each analysis result; combining and calculating each analysis result to determine a vector type main aftershock vulnerability surface and a vector type main aftershock danger surface; and performing integral calculation on the vector type main aftershock vulnerability surface and the vector type main aftershock danger surface to determine a vector type main aftershock risk analysis model.

[0006] Optionally, the establishment of the main aftershock database of the target engineering structure comprises: obtaining historical monitoring data of each preset engineering structure, wherein the historical monitoring data comprises historical main earthquake data and historical aftershock data; determining a danger level parameter of the target engineering structure according to the structure characteristics of the target engineering structure; and determining data satisfying a preset condition in the historical monitoring data by using a preset condition mean spectrum and the danger level parameter to establish a main aftershock database.

[0007] Optionally, the data analysis on the target engineering structure by using the characteristic signals to obtain various analysis results comprises: performing nonlinear time-history analysis and probabilistic seismic demand analysis on the target engineering structure according to the characteristic signals to obtain scalar primary earthquake vulnerability curves and vector secondary earthquake vulnerability surfaces of the characteristic signals; and calculating failure probability of a structure collapse condition by using a regression method.

[0008] Optionally, the data analysis on the target engineering structure according to data in the primary-secondary earthquake database to obtain various analysis results further comprises: determining probability distribution models of primary earthquake parameters and secondary earthquake parameters in the primary-secondary earthquake database by using a preset criterion; and determining an associated function that matches the probability distribution models and satisfies a preset requirement by using the preset criterion based on the probability distribution models.

[0009] Optionally, the combination and calculation of the various analysis results to determine vector primary-secondary earthquake vulnerability surfaces and vector primary-secondary earthquake risk surfaces comprise: combining the obtained scalar primary earthquake vulnerability curves, vector secondary earthquake vulnerability surfaces and failure probability according to a total probability theorem to form vector primary-secondary earthquake vulnerability surfaces; calculating the probability distribution models and the associated function according to a preset theorem to determine joint probability density functions and conditional probability surfaces of the secondary earthquake parameters; obtaining a primary earthquake risk curve of the target engineering structure, and determining vector primary-secondary earthquake risk surfaces according to the primary earthquake risk curve, joint probability density functions and conditional probability surfaces of the secondary earthquake parameters.

[0010] According to a second aspect, an embodiment of the present application provides a vector primary-secondary earthquake risk early warning method, comprising: collecting at least one characteristic signal of an engineering structure to be monitored; and using a vector primary-secondary earthquake risk analysis model established by the vector primary-secondary earthquake risk analysis model construction method according to the first aspect and any one of the embodiments of the first aspect to perform primary-secondary earthquake risk assessment on the engineering structure to be monitored, and generate an early warning result of the engineering structure to be monitored.

[0011] According to a third aspect, an embodiment of the present application provides a vector main aftershock risk analysis model construction system, comprising: a database establishment module configured to establish a main aftershock database of a target engineering structure; an acquisition module configured to acquire at least one characteristic signal related to each main aftershock from the main aftershock database; an analysis module configured to perform data analysis on the target engineering structure by using the characteristic signal to obtain each analysis result; a calculation module configured to combine and calculate each analysis result to determine a vector main aftershock vulnerability surface and a vector main aftershock danger surface; and a model construction module configured to perform integral calculation on the vector main aftershock vulnerability surface and the vector main aftershock danger surface to determine a vector main aftershock risk analysis model.

[0012] According to a fourth aspect, an embodiment of the present application provides a vector main aftershock risk early warning system, comprising: an acquisition module configured to acquire at least one characteristic signal of a to-be-monitored engineering structure; and an early warning module configured to perform main aftershock risk assessment on each characteristic signal by using a vector main aftershock risk analysis model established by the vector main aftershock risk analysis model construction system of any one of the third aspect and the third aspect to generate an early warning result of the to-be-monitored engineering structure.

[0013] An embodiment of the present application provides a non-transitory computer readable storage medium storing computer instructions, the computer instructions being executed by a processor to implement the vector main aftershock risk analysis model construction method of the first aspect and any one of the optional manners, or to implement the vector main aftershock risk early warning method of the second aspect and any one of the optional manners.

[0014] An embodiment of the present application provides an electronic device, comprising: a memory and a processor, which are in communication connection with each other, and the memory stores computer instructions, and the processor executes the computer instructions to implement the vector main aftershock risk analysis model construction method of the first aspect and any one of the optional manners, or to implement the vector main aftershock risk early warning method of the second aspect and any one of the optional manners.

[0015] The technical scheme of the present application has the following advantages:

[0016] The embodiment of the present application provides a vector type main aftershock risk analysis model construction method, which extends the traditional earthquake risk function from only considering main shock events to considering both main shock and aftershock events, extends the traditional single event earthquake risk analysis method, and combines vector type main shock vulnerability results and vector type main aftershock danger results by using a direct integration method, so that the main aftershock earthquake risk level of an engineering site can be comprehensively and quantitatively evaluated; the problem that aftershock events cannot be considered in the traditional earthquake risk analysis process is solved, and a three-dimensional main aftershock risk surface is obtained. The vector type main aftershock risk analysis method of the present application can be used to establish a risk analysis model of a target engineering site under the action of a main aftershock sequence, evaluate the earthquake risk of the target engineering site under the action of the main aftershock sequence, provide a theoretical basis and operation method for safety evaluation work in engineering construction, and can be used for site safety evaluation work in actual engineering construction. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF DRAWINGS

[0017] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the specific embodiments or prior art of the present application, the drawings needed in the specific embodiments or prior art description will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings in the following description are some embodiments of the present application, and other drawings can also be obtained by those skilled in the art without creative labor.

[0018] Figure 1 The flow chart of the vector type main aftershock risk analysis model construction method in the embodiment of the present application;

[0019] Figures 2(a)-2(b) The spectral acceleration graphs of main shock and aftershock in the embodiment of the present application, respectively;

[0020] Figures 3(a)-3(b) The main shock and aftershock probability earthquake demand model graphs in the embodiment of the present application, respectively;

[0021] Figures 4(a)-4(d) The different vector type main aftershock vulnerability surface graphs in the embodiment of the present application;

[0022] Figures 5(a)-5(b) The main shock and aftershock parameter and probability distribution identification graphs in the embodiment of the present application;

[0023] Figure 6 The conditional probability surface graph of the aftershock parameter in the embodiment of the present application;

[0024] Figure 7 The vector type main aftershock danger surface graph in the embodiment of the present application;

[0025] Figure 8 The vector type main aftershock risk curve graph in the embodiment of the present application;

[0026] Figure 9 A schematic diagram of a vector type main aftershock risk analysis model construction system in an embodiment of the present application;

[0027] Figure 10 A schematic diagram of a vector type main aftershock risk early warning system in an embodiment of the present application;

[0028] Figure 11 A structural schematic diagram of an electronic device in an embodiment of the present application. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0029] The technical solutions of the present application will be described clearly and completely below with reference to the drawings. Obviously, the described embodiments are some of the embodiments of the present application, but not all the embodiments. Based on the embodiments in the present application, all other embodiments obtained by those skilled in the art without creative work fall within the protection scope of the present application.

[0030] In addition, the technical features involved in different embodiments of the present application described below can be combined with each other as long as there is no conflict.

[0031] The present embodiment uses the direct integration method based on the complex trapezoidal algorithm in mathematics to integrate the vector type main aftershock vulnerability result and the vector type main aftershock risk result, form a new joint risk analysis model that can consider the main aftershock sequence, provide a more comprehensive method for risk analysis in actual engineering, and apply the method to safety evaluation work of actual engineering sites.

[0032] The embodiment of the present application provides a vector type main aftershock risk analysis model construction method, as shown in the figure, the vector type main aftershock risk analysis model construction method specifically includes: Figure 1

[0033] Step S1: Establishing a main aftershock database of a target engineering structure. In actual application, based on a public authoritative ground motion database, and then establishing a main aftershock database of the target engineering structure through an existing ground motion database, providing a data basis for subsequent analysis.

[0034] In fact, the establishment of the main aftershock ground motion database is to collect and sort the main aftershock records matched with the target engineering site based on the earthquake record database of the United States Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center, the Italian strong ground motion database and the China National Strong Motion Network Center.

[0035] Specifically, in an embodiment, the step S1 described above specifically includes the following steps:

[0036] ​Step S11: obtaining historical monitoring data of each preset engineering structure, wherein the historical monitoring data comprises historical main earthquake data and historical aftershock data; the historical monitoring data of each preset engineering structure is obtained by using existing equipment or existing technology, thereby laying a data foundation for constructing the main aftershock database.

[0037] Step S12: determining a risk level parameter of the target engineering structure according to the structural characteristics of the target engineering structure.

[0038] Step S13: determining data satisfying the preset condition in the historical monitoring data by using the preset condition mean spectrum and the risk level parameter, and establishing a main aftershock database. Based on the internationally published authoritative ground motion database and the preset condition mean spectrum, main earthquakes and their aftershock records that match the risk level of the target engineering structure are selected to form the main aftershock database.

[0039] In actual application, the main earthquake and aftershock ground motion record selection rules are as follows:

[0040] 1) Only the aftershock with the largest magnitude after the main earthquake is selected to form a main aftershock sequence; 2) The main earthquake and aftershock ground motion records need to come from the same ground motion station; 3) The main earthquake and aftershock ground motion records need to be shallow source earthquakes.

[0041] Through the above three ground motion selection rules, 662 main earthquake and 662 aftershock ground motions are obtained, and a main aftershock ground motion record database is established. Based on the condition mean spectrum, 30 main aftershock sequences that match the target engineering site are selected, and the spectral accelerations of the main earthquake and the aftershock are shown in FIG. 2(a) and FIG. 2(b), wherein T(s) represents the basic period of the structure, and Sa(g) represents the spectral acceleration.

[0042] Step S2: obtaining at least one characteristic signal related to each main aftershock from the main aftershock database. The characteristic signal is data about the uniqueness of an engineering structure subjected to a main aftershock. In actual application, the above-mentioned characteristic signal about the main aftershock can be collected by using an existing data collection system. In this embodiment, the existing technology can be used to collect data, and the present application is not limited thereto.

[0043] Step S3: performing data analysis on the target engineering structure by using the characteristic signal to obtain each analysis result. The above-mentioned collected characteristic signal is used to perform nonlinear time history analysis and probabilistic seismic demand analysis on the target engineering structure to determine the analysis result.

[0044] Specifically, the above-mentioned step S3 further comprises the following steps:

[0045] Step S31: performing nonlinear time history analysis and probabilistic seismic demand analysis on the target engineering structure according to the characteristic signal to obtain a scalar main shock fragility curve and a vector aftershock fragility surface of the characteristic signal. In practice, nonlinear time history analysis and probabilistic seismic demand analysis are performed on the target engineering structure to obtain a scalar main shock fragility curve and a vector aftershock fragility surface.

[0046] Step S32: calculating the failure probability of the structure in the collapse condition by using a regression method. In this embodiment, the failure probability of the structure in the collapse condition is calculated by using a Logistics regression method; specifically, the failure probability of the structure in the collapse condition can also be calculated by using other regression methods, and the specific calculation method is not limited in this embodiment.

[0047] Step S33: determining the probability distribution models of the main shock parameters and the aftershock parameters in the main aftershock database by using a preset criterion; based on the records in the main aftershock database, the optimal probability distribution models of the main shock parameters and the aftershock parameters are selected by using a preset criterion, such as the BIC criterion.

[0048] Step S34: determining the correlation function that matches the probability distribution models and meets the preset requirement by using a preset criterion. Based on the probability distribution models of the main shock parameters and the aftershock parameters, the correlation function, such as a Copula function, that matches the probability distribution models of the main shock parameters and the aftershock parameters is selected by using the BIC criterion.

[0049] In this embodiment, the peak ground velocity of the main shock and the peak ground velocity of the aftershock are selected as the main shock parameters and the aftershock parameters, respectively, and the main shock and aftershock demand models are shown in FIGS. 3(a) and 3(b), respectively, wherein ln(PGV MS) represents the logarithm of the peak ground velocity of the main shock, ln(PGV AS ) represents the logarithm of the peak ground velocity of the aftershock, and ln(DI MS ) represents the logarithm of the main shock damage; based on the collapse and non-collapse data, the failure probability of the structure in the collapse condition is calculated by using the Logistics regression method, and the calculation formula is shown as follows:

[0050]

[0051]

[0052] In the formula, Col represents the collapse condition, MS represents the main shock, AS represents the aftershock, PGV MS represents the peak ground velocity of the main shock, and PGV AS represents the peak ground velocity of the aftershock.

[0053] Step S4: combining and calculating the analysis results to determine the vector main aftershock fragility surface and the vector main aftershock hazard surface.

[0054] Specifically, in an embodiment, the step S4 comprises the following steps:

[0055] Step S41: According to the total probability theorem, the obtained scalar main earthquake vulnerability curve, the vector type aftershock vulnerability surface and the failure probability are combined to form a vector type main aftershock vulnerability surface.

[0056] Step S42: According to the preset theorem, the probability distribution model and the correlation function are calculated to determine the joint probability density function and the conditional probability surface of the aftershock parameter.

[0057] Step S43: Obtain the main earthquake hazard curve of the target engineering structure, and determine the vector type main aftershock hazard surface according to the main earthquake hazard curve, the joint probability density function and the conditional probability surface of the aftershock parameter.

[0058] Specifically, according to the total probability theorem, the obtained main earthquake vulnerability curve, the aftershock vulnerability surface and the failure probability of the structure collapse working condition are combined to obtain a vector type main aftershock vulnerability surface, as shown in the four different surface graphs of Figures 4(a)-4(d) LS1 represents slight damage, LS2 represents moderate damage, LS3 represents severe damage, and LS4 represents collapse damage. Further based on the BIC criterion, the probability distribution model of the main earthquake parameter and the aftershock parameter and the Copula function are selected.

[0059] 1. Based on the obtained main earthquake and aftershock data, the optimal probability distribution of the main earthquake parameter and the aftershock parameter is selected based on the BIC criterion. As shown in FIG. 5(a), the main earthquake parameter and the probability distribution thereof are identified, and as shown in FIG. 5(b), the aftershock parameter and the probability distribution thereof are identified. CDF represents the cumulative probability distribution function.

[0060] 2. Based on the obtained main earthquake parameter and aftershock parameter distribution, Gaussian copula, Plackett copula, Clayton copula, Frank copula and Gumbel copula are selected as candidate Copula functions. Based on the BIC criterion, the Copula function is obtained as Clayton copula, as shown in Table 1. The obtained Copula probability density function and the probability distribution function of the aftershock parameter are combined to obtain the Copula joint probability density function. Combined with the known main earthquake hazard curve of the target site, a vector type main aftershock hazard surface is obtained.

[0061] Table 1 BIC values of candidate Copula functions

[0062] Copula function Clayton Frank Gumbel Gaussian Plackett BIC value -581 -430 -279 -446 -426

[0063] 1. According to Sklar's theorem, based on the obtained Copula probability density function and the probability distribution function of the aftershock parameters, the conditional probability surface of the aftershock parameters is obtained, as follows: Figure 6 As shown, P[PGVAS|PGVMS] represents the conditional probability of the aftershock peak velocity given the mainshock peak velocity.

[0064] 2. Based on the conditional probability surface of the obtained aftershock parameters, and combined with the known mainshock hazard curve of the target engineering site, the mainshock and aftershock hazard surface is obtained, such as... Figure 7 As shown, MAR of exceeding represents the annual exceedance rate.

[0065] Step S5: Perform integral calculations on the vector-based mainshock and aftershock vulnerability surfaces and the vector-based mainshock and aftershock hazard surfaces to determine the vector-based mainshock and aftershock risk analysis model. Based on the obtained mainshock and aftershock vulnerability surfaces and mainshock and aftershock hazard surfaces, use the direct integration method based on the complex trapezoidal rule to integrate them, obtaining a risk curve that can simultaneously consider the mainshock and aftershocks, such as... Figure 8 As shown, DI represents structural damage.

[0066] Through the above steps S1 to S5, the vector-based mainshock and aftershock risk analysis method provided in this embodiment can be used to establish a risk analysis model of an engineering site under the combined action of the mainshock and aftershock, assess the mainshock and aftershock risk level of the engineering site, provide a theoretical basis for the safety assessment of the engineering site, and can be used for the safety evaluation of the engineering site in engineering construction.

[0067] This invention also provides a vector-based mainshock and aftershock risk early warning method, which specifically includes:

[0068] Step S01: Collect at least one characteristic infrasound signal from the area to be monitored.

[0069] Step S02: The vector-based mainshock and aftershock risk analysis model is established using the vector-based mainshock and aftershock risk analysis model construction method. The model uses various characteristic signals to assess the mainshock and aftershock risk of the monitored engineering structure and generates early warning results for the monitored engineering structure.

[0070] Through the steps S01 to S02, the embodiment of the present application provides a vector type main aftershock risk early warning method, which extends the traditional earthquake risk function from only considering the main shock event to considering both the main shock and the aftershock events, expands the traditional single event earthquake risk analysis method, and combines the vector type main shock vulnerability result and the vector type main aftershock danger result by using the direct integration method, so as to comprehensively and quantitatively evaluate the main aftershock earthquake risk level of the engineering site; solves the problem that the aftershock event cannot be considered in the traditional earthquake risk analysis process, and obtains a three-dimensional main aftershock risk surface. The vector type main aftershock risk analysis method of the present application can be used to establish a risk analysis model of the target engineering site under the action of the main aftershock sequence, evaluate the earthquake risk of the target engineering site under the action of the main aftershock sequence, provide a theoretical basis and operation method for the safety evaluation work in engineering construction, and can be used for the site safety evaluation work in actual engineering construction.

[0071] The embodiment of the present application also provides a vector type main aftershock risk analysis model construction system, as shown in Figure 9 , which comprises:

[0072] The database establishment module 1 is used to establish a main aftershock database of the target engineering structure; for details, refer to the related description of step S1 in the method embodiment.

[0073] The acquisition module 2 is used to acquire at least one characteristic signal related to each main aftershock from the main aftershock database; for details, refer to the related description of step S2 in the method embodiment.

[0074] The analysis module 3 is used to perform data analysis on the target engineering structure by using the characteristic signal to obtain each analysis result; for details, refer to the related description of step S3 in the method embodiment.

[0075] The calculation module 4 is used to combine and calculate each analysis result to determine the vector type main aftershock vulnerability surface and the vector type main aftershock danger surface; for details, refer to the related description of step S4 in the method embodiment.

[0076] The model construction module 5 is used to perform integral calculation on the vector type main aftershock vulnerability surface and the vector type main aftershock danger surface to determine the vector type main aftershock risk analysis model; for details, refer to the related description of step S5 in the method embodiment.

[0077] The embodiment of the present application also provides a vector type main aftershock risk early warning system, as shown in Figure 10 , which comprises:

[0078] The acquisition module 11 is used to acquire at least one characteristic signal of the engineering structure to be monitored; for details, refer to the related description of step S01 in the method embodiment.

[0079] The early warning module 12 is configured to perform main aftershock risk assessment on each characteristic signal by using the vector type main aftershock risk analysis model established by the vector type main aftershock risk analysis model construction system, and generate early warning results of the engineering structure to be monitored.

[0080] The embodiment of the present application also provides an electronic device, such as Figure 11 As shown in the figure, the electronic device can include a processor 901 and a memory 902, wherein the processor 901 and the memory 902 can be connected by a bus or other means, Figure 11 For example, the connection by the bus is taken as an example.

[0081] The processor 901 can be a central processing unit (CPU). The processor 901 can also be other general-purpose processors, digital signal processors (DSP), application specific integrated circuits (ASIC), field programmable gate arrays (FPGA) or other programmable logic devices, discrete gate or transistor logic devices, discrete hardware components, etc. chips, or combinations of the above various chips.

[0082] The memory 902 as a non-transitory computer readable storage medium can be used to store non-transitory software programs, non-transitory computer executable programs and modules, such as program instructions / modules corresponding to the method of the embodiment of the present application. The processor 901 performs various functional applications and data processing of the processor by running the non-transitory software programs, instructions and modules stored in the memory 902, that is, realizes the above method.

[0083] The memory 902 can include a program storage area and a data storage area, wherein the program storage area can store an operating system, at least one application required by a function; the data storage area can store data created by the processor 901 and the like. In addition, the memory 902 can include a high-speed random access memory, and can also include a non-transitory memory, such as at least one magnetic disk storage device, a flash memory device, or other non-transitory solid-state storage device. In some embodiments, the memory 902 can optionally include a memory remotely arranged with respect to the processor 901, and these remote memories can be connected to the processor 901 through a network. Examples of the above network include but are not limited to the Internet, an intranet, a local area network, a mobile communication network and a combination thereof.

[0084] One or more modules are stored in the memory 902, and when executed by the processor 901, perform the above-described methods.

[0085] The above-described electronic device specific details can be understood in correspondence with the above-described method embodiments corresponding to the relevant description and effects, which will not be described here.

[0086] Those skilled in the art can understand that all or part of the processes in the above-mentioned embodiment methods can be completed by a computer program instructing related hardware, and the program can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium. When the program is executed, it can include the processes of the above-mentioned embodiments of each method. Among them, the storage medium can be a magnetic disc, an optical disc, a read-only memory (ROM), a random access memory (RAM), a flash memory, a hard disk drive (HDD) or a solid-state drive (SSD), etc. The storage medium can also include a combination of the above types of memories.

[0087] The above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present application rather than limit it. Although the present application has been described in detail with reference to the above embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that the specific embodiments of the present application can be modified or replaced by equivalents without departing from the spirit and scope of the present application. Any modification or equivalent replacement without departing from the spirit and scope of the present application should be covered in the scope of the claims of the present application.

Claims

1. A method for constructing a vector-based mainshock and aftershock risk analysis model, characterized in that, include: Establish a database of main and aftershocks for the target engineering structure; Obtain at least one characteristic signal related to each main and aftershock from the main and aftershock database; The target engineering structure is analyzed using the aforementioned characteristic signals to obtain various analysis results. The analysis results are combined and calculated to determine the vector-based main and aftershock vulnerability surface and the vector-based main and aftershock hazard surface. The vector-based mainshock and aftershock vulnerability surface and the vector-based mainshock and aftershock hazard surface are integrally calculated to determine the vector-based mainshock and aftershock risk analysis model. The process of using the characteristic signals to perform data analysis on the target engineering structure yields various analysis results, including: Based on the characteristic signals, nonlinear time history analysis and probabilistic seismic demand analysis are performed on the target engineering structure to obtain the scalar mainshock vulnerability curve and vector aftershock vulnerability surface of the characteristic signals. The failure probability of the structure under collapse conditions is calculated using regression methods; The step of performing data analysis on the target engineering structure based on the data in the main shock and aftershock database to obtain various analysis results also includes: Using preset criteria, a probability distribution model for the mainshock parameters and aftershock parameters is determined in the mainshock and aftershock database. Based on the probability distribution model, the association function that matches the probability distribution model with the preset criteria is determined using the preset criteria; The step of combining and calculating the various analysis results to determine the vector-based mainshock vulnerability surface and the vector-based mainshock hazard surface includes: According to the law of total probability, the obtained scalar main shock vulnerability curve, vector aftershock vulnerability surface and failure probability are combined to form a vector main shock and aftershock vulnerability surface. According to a preset theorem, the probability distribution model and the correlation function are calculated to determine the joint probability density function and the conditional probability surface of the aftershock parameters; Obtain the main shock hazard curve of the target engineering structure, and determine the vector-based main and aftershock hazard surface based on the main shock hazard curve, the joint probability density function, and the conditional probability surface of the aftershock parameters.

2. The method for constructing a vector-based mainshock and aftershock risk analysis model according to claim 1, characterized in that, The establishment of the main and aftershock database for the target engineering structure includes: Acquire historical monitoring data for each pre-set engineering structure, wherein the historical monitoring data includes historical main shock data and historical aftershock data; The hazard level parameters of the target engineering structure are determined based on its structural characteristics. Using the preset condition mean spectrum and the aforementioned hazard level parameter, data that meets the preset conditions are identified from the historical monitoring data to establish a mainshock and aftershock database.

3. A vector-based method for early warning of mainshock and aftershock risk, characterized in that, include: Collect at least one characteristic signal of the engineering structure to be monitored; The vector-based mainshock and aftershock risk analysis model, constructed using the method described in any one of claims 1-2, is used to assess the mainshock and aftershock risk of the monitored engineering structure using the characteristic signals described therein, and to generate early warning results for the monitored engineering structure.

4. A vector-based mainshock and aftershock risk analysis model construction system, characterized in that, include: The database creation module is used to create a database of main and aftershocks for the target engineering structure. The acquisition module is used to acquire at least one characteristic signal related to each main and aftershock from the main and aftershock database; The analysis module is used to perform data analysis on the target engineering structure using the characteristic signals to obtain various analysis results; The process of using the characteristic signals to perform data analysis on the target engineering structure yields various analysis results, including: Based on the characteristic signals, nonlinear time history analysis and probabilistic seismic demand analysis are performed on the target engineering structure to obtain the scalar mainshock vulnerability curve and vector aftershock vulnerability surface of the characteristic signals. The failure probability of the structure under collapse conditions is calculated using regression methods; The step of performing data analysis on the target engineering structure based on the data in the main shock and aftershock database to obtain various analysis results also includes: Using preset criteria, a probability distribution model for the mainshock parameters and aftershock parameters is determined in the mainshock and aftershock database. Based on the probability distribution model, the association function that matches the probability distribution model with the preset criteria is determined using the preset criteria; The calculation module is used to combine and calculate the various analysis results to determine the vector-based main and aftershock vulnerability surface and the vector-based main and aftershock hazard surface. The step of combining and calculating the various analysis results to determine the vector-based mainshock vulnerability surface and the vector-based mainshock hazard surface includes: According to the law of total probability, the obtained scalar main shock vulnerability curve, vector aftershock vulnerability surface and failure probability are combined to form a vector main shock and aftershock vulnerability surface. According to a preset theorem, the probability distribution model and the correlation function are calculated to determine the joint probability density function and the conditional probability surface of the aftershock parameters; Obtain the main shock hazard curve of the target engineering structure, and determine the vector-based main and aftershock hazard surface based on the main shock hazard curve, the joint probability density function, and the conditional probability surface of the aftershock parameters; The model building module is used to perform integral calculations on the vector-based main and aftershock vulnerability surface and the vector-based main and aftershock hazard surface to determine the vector-based main and aftershock risk analysis model.

5. A vector-based mainshock and aftershock risk early warning system, characterized in that, include: The acquisition module is used to acquire at least one characteristic signal of the engineering structure to be monitored. The early warning module is used to construct a vector-based main and aftershock risk analysis model based on the vector-based main and aftershock risk analysis model as described in claim 4, to assess the main and aftershock risks of each of the characteristic signals, and generate early warning results for the engineering structure to be monitored.

6. A non-transitory computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that, The non-transitory computer-readable storage medium stores computer instructions, which, when executed by a processor, implement the vector-based mainshock and aftershock risk analysis model construction method as described in any one of claims 1-2, or implement the vector-based mainshock and aftershock risk early warning method as described in claim 3.

7. An electronic device, characterized in that, include: The system includes a memory and a processor, which are interconnected. The memory stores computer instructions, and the processor executes the computer instructions to perform either the vector-based mainshock and aftershock risk analysis model construction method as described in any one of claims 1-2, or the vector-based mainshock and aftershock risk early warning method as described in claim 3.

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