Aftershock prediction method, device and electronic equipment
By calculating the change in the loading-unloading response ratio of tidal stress data before and after an earthquake, high-risk areas are screened out, solving the problems of poor positioning accuracy and low prediction efficiency in traditional aftershock prediction methods, and achieving more accurate and efficient aftershock prediction.
Patent Information
- Authority / Receiving Office
- CN · China
- Patent Type
- Patents(China)
- Current Assignee / Owner
- INST OF EARTHQUAKE SCI CHINA EARTHQUAKE ADMINISTATION
- Filing Date
- 2023-07-10
- Publication Date
- 2026-06-19
AI Technical Summary
Traditional aftershock prediction methods suffer from poor location accuracy, long prediction time, and low prediction efficiency.
By acquiring earthquake catalogs and tidal stress data, the area to be predicted is divided into multiple sub-regions. The change in the loading and unloading response ratio before and after the earthquake is calculated, and areas where the rate of change in the loading and unloading response ratio is greater than a threshold are selected as aftershock areas.
It improved the location accuracy and prediction efficiency of aftershock prediction, and shortened the prediction time.
Smart Images
Figure CN116879943B_ABST
Abstract
Description
Technical Field
[0001] This invention relates to the field of earthquake prediction technology, and in particular to an aftershock prediction method, device, and electronic equipment. Background Technology
[0002] Traditional aftershock prediction methods typically use the loading and unloading response ratio of the area to be predicted based on tidal stress to predict the location of aftershocks. However, the location accuracy of these traditional techniques is generally on a scale of hundreds of kilometers, which is quite large, and the prediction time is long.
[0003] Overall, traditional aftershock prediction methods suffer from poor location accuracy, low prediction accuracy, and low prediction efficiency. Summary of the Invention
[0004] The purpose of this invention is to provide an aftershock prediction method, device, and electronic equipment to improve the positioning accuracy and prediction efficiency of aftershock prediction.
[0005] In a first aspect, embodiments of the present invention provide an aftershock prediction method, comprising: acquiring an earthquake catalog of a region to be predicted from which an earthquake of a preset magnitude occurred within a preset time period, and tidal stress data of the region to be predicted within the preset time period; the preset time period is used to indicate a first preset time point before the occurrence of the earthquake of the preset magnitude and a second preset time point after the occurrence of the earthquake of the preset magnitude; the time interval between the occurrence of the earthquake of the preset magnitude and the second preset time point is less than or equal to 5 days; dividing the region to be predicted into multiple sub-regions based on preset size parameters; and according to the earthquake catalog, the tidal stress data, and... For the aforementioned multiple sub-regions, a first loading / unloading response ratio is determined within a first time window for the tidal stress data generated in the region to be predicted, and a second loading / unloading response ratio is determined within a second time window for the tidal stress data generated in the region to be predicted. The first time window is the period between the first preset time point and the third preset time point before the occurrence of the earthquake of the preset magnitude. The second time window is the period between the second preset time point and the fourth preset time point before the occurrence of the earthquake of the preset magnitude. Based on the first loading / unloading response ratio and the second loading / unloading response ratio, the sub-regions where aftershocks occur among the aforementioned multiple sub-regions are determined.
[0006] In conjunction with the first aspect, this embodiment of the invention also provides a first possible implementation of the first aspect, wherein the step of dividing the region to be predicted into multiple sub-regions based on preset size parameters includes: dividing the region to be predicted into a grid pattern based on preset size parameters to obtain a gridded region; and determining the gridded region into multiple sub-regions.
[0007] In conjunction with the first possible implementation of the first aspect, this embodiment of the invention also provides a second possible implementation of the first aspect, wherein the longitude and latitude of each of the above-mentioned gridded regions are both 0.25 degrees.
[0008] In conjunction with the first aspect, this embodiment of the invention also provides a third possible implementation of the first aspect, wherein the step of determining the sub-regions in which aftershocks occur among the plurality of sub-regions based on the first loading / unloading response ratio and the second loading / unloading response ratio includes: calculating the difference between the first loading / unloading response ratio and the second loading / unloading response ratio to obtain the rate of change of the loading / unloading response ratio corresponding to the sub-region; and determining the sub-regions in which aftershocks occur among the plurality of sub-regions based on the rate of change of the loading / unloading response ratio corresponding to the sub-region.
[0009] In conjunction with the third possible implementation of the first aspect, this embodiment of the invention also provides a fourth possible implementation of the first aspect, wherein the step of determining the sub-regions in which aftershocks occur among the plurality of sub-regions based on the rate of change of the loading / unloading response ratio corresponding to the sub-regions includes: screening out dangerous sub-regions in which the rate of change of the loading / unloading response ratio corresponding to the sub-regions is greater than a preset threshold; and determining the dangerous sub-regions as the sub-regions in which aftershocks occur among the plurality of sub-regions.
[0010] In conjunction with any of the fourth possible implementation methods of the first aspect of the invention for aftershock prediction, this embodiment of the invention also provides a fifth possible implementation method of the first aspect, wherein the preset time period is 19 months; and both the first time window and the second time window are 18 months.
[0011] In conjunction with any of the fourth possible implementations of the first aspect of the aftershock prediction method, this embodiment of the invention also provides a sixth possible implementation of the first aspect, wherein the preset earthquake level is a magnitude 7 earthquake; the area to be predicted is a region within 200 km of the epicenter in the earthquake catalog; and the earthquake catalog contains earthquakes of magnitude 0 to 4 that occurred in the area to be predicted within a preset time period.
[0012] Secondly, embodiments of the present invention also provide an aftershock prediction device, comprising: a data acquisition module, configured to acquire an earthquake catalog of a region to be predicted where an earthquake of a preset magnitude has occurred within a preset time period, and tidal stress data of the region to be predicted within the preset time period; the preset time period is used to indicate a first preset time point before the occurrence of the earthquake of the preset magnitude and a second preset time point after the occurrence of the earthquake of the preset magnitude; the time interval between the occurrence of the earthquake of the preset magnitude and the second preset time point is less than or equal to 5 days; a sub-region division module, configured to divide the region to be predicted into multiple sub-regions based on preset size parameters; and a loading / unloading response ratio calculation module, configured to calculate the load / unloading response ratio based on the earthquake catalog. Based on the aforementioned tidal stress data and the aforementioned multiple sub-regions, a first loading / unloading response ratio of the aforementioned tidal stress data within the aforementioned predicted region is determined within a first time window, and a second loading / unloading response ratio of the aforementioned tidal stress data within the aforementioned predicted region is determined within a second time window; the aforementioned first time window is the period between the aforementioned first preset time point and the third preset time point before the occurrence of the aforementioned preset magnitude earthquake; the aforementioned second time window is the period between the aforementioned second preset time point and the fourth preset time point before the occurrence of the aforementioned preset magnitude earthquake; the aftershock prediction module is used to determine the sub-regions in which aftershocks occur within the aforementioned multiple sub-regions based on the aforementioned first loading / unloading response ratio and the aforementioned second loading / unloading response ratio.
[0013] Thirdly, embodiments of the present invention provide an electronic device, wherein the electronic device includes a processor and a memory, the memory storing machine-executable instructions executable by the processor, and the processor executing the machine-executable instructions to implement the aftershock prediction method of any one of the first to fourth possible implementations of the first aspect.
[0014] Fourthly, embodiments of the present invention provide a computer storage medium, wherein the computer storage medium stores a computer program, the computer program including program instructions, and when the program instructions are executed by a processor, the processor performs the aftershock prediction method of any one of the fourth possible implementations of the first aspect.
[0015] The embodiments of the present invention bring the following beneficial effects:
[0016] This invention provides an aftershock prediction method, apparatus, and electronic device, comprising: acquiring an earthquake catalog of a region to be predicted from which an earthquake of a preset magnitude occurred within a preset time period, and tidal stress data of the region to be predicted within the preset time period; the preset time period is used to indicate a first preset time point before the occurrence of the earthquake of the preset magnitude and a second preset time point after the occurrence of the earthquake of the preset magnitude; the time interval between the occurrence of the earthquake of the preset magnitude and the second preset time point is less than or equal to 5 days; dividing the region to be predicted into multiple sub-regions based on preset size parameters; and predicting aftershocks according to the earthquake catalog, the tidal stress data, and... The method involves dividing the region to be predicted into blocks and calculating the loading / unloading response ratios of the tidal stress data within the predicted region over a first time window, and determining the second loading / unloading response ratios of the tidal stress data within the predicted region over a second time window. The first time window is the period between the first preset time point and the third preset time point before the occurrence of an earthquake of the preset magnitude. The second time window is the period between the second preset time point and the fourth preset time point before the occurrence of an earthquake of the preset magnitude. Based on the first and second loading / unloading response ratios, the sub-regions where aftershocks occur are determined. This method improves the positioning accuracy and prediction efficiency of aftershock prediction by dividing the region to be predicted into blocks and calculating the loading / unloading response ratios of the region to be predicted over a period of time after the earthquake and over a period of time before the earthquake.
[0017] Other features and advantages disclosed in this embodiment will be set forth in the following description, or some features and advantages may be inferred from the description or determined without doubt, or may be learned by practicing the techniques described above.
[0018] To make the above-mentioned objects, features and advantages of this disclosure more apparent and understandable, preferred embodiments are described below in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings. Attached Figure Description
[0019] To more clearly illustrate the specific embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings used in the description of the specific embodiments or the prior art will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are some embodiments of the present invention. For those skilled in the art, other drawings can be obtained from these drawings without creative effort.
[0020] Figure 1 This is a flowchart illustrating an aftershock prediction method provided in an embodiment of the present invention.
[0021] Figure 2A flowchart illustrating another aftershock prediction method provided in an embodiment of the present invention;
[0022] Figure 3 This is a schematic diagram of the structure of an aftershock prediction device provided in an embodiment of the present invention;
[0023] Figure 4 This invention provides a schematic diagram of an electronic device structure.
[0024] Icons: 31-Data acquisition module; 32-Sub-region division module; 33-Loading / unloading response ratio calculation module; 34-Aftershock prediction module; 41-Memory; 42-Processor; 43-Bus; 44-Communication interface. Detailed Implementation
[0025] To make the objectives, technical solutions, and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention clearer, the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings. Obviously, the described embodiments are only some embodiments of the present invention, and not all embodiments. The components of the embodiments of the present invention described and shown in the accompanying drawings can generally be arranged and designed in various different configurations.
[0026] Traditional aftershock prediction methods typically use the loading / unloading response ratio of the predicted area to predict the location of aftershocks. However, these traditional techniques generally have a location accuracy on a scale of hundreds of kilometers, covering a large area, and require long prediction times. Overall, traditional aftershock prediction methods suffer from poor location accuracy, low prediction accuracy, and low prediction efficiency.
[0027] Based on this, embodiments of the present invention provide an aftershock prediction method, apparatus, and electronic device. By dividing the area to be predicted into blocks and calculating the loading / unloading response ratio of the area to be predicted for a period of time after the earthquake and the loading / unloading response for a period of time before the earthquake, the changes in the loading / unloading response are obtained, thereby predicting aftershocks and improving the location accuracy and prediction efficiency of aftershock prediction. To facilitate understanding of the embodiments of the present invention, a detailed description of an aftershock prediction method disclosed in the embodiments of the present invention will be provided first.
[0028] Example 1
[0029] In this embodiment, Figure 1 This is a flowchart illustrating an aftershock prediction method provided in an embodiment of the present invention.
[0030] Depend on Figure 1 As seen, the method includes:
[0031] Step S101: Obtain the earthquake catalog of the area to be predicted where an earthquake of the preset magnitude occurs within a preset time period, and the tidal stress data of the area to be predicted within the preset time period; the preset time period is used to indicate the period from a first preset time point before the earthquake of the preset magnitude occurs to a second preset time point after the earthquake of the preset magnitude occurs; the time interval between the earthquake of the preset magnitude and the second preset time point is less than or equal to 5 days.
[0032] In this embodiment, the preset earthquake level is a magnitude 7 earthquake; the area to be predicted is the region within 200 km of the epicenter in the earthquake catalog; the earthquake catalog contains earthquakes of magnitude 0 to 4 that occurred in the area to be predicted within a preset time period.
[0033] Step S102: Based on preset size parameters, divide the above-mentioned region to be predicted into multiple sub-regions.
[0034] Here, step S102 includes: First, based on preset size parameters, the region to be predicted is divided into grids to obtain a gridded region. Then, the gridded region is divided into multiple sub-regions.
[0035] Step S103: Based on the earthquake catalog, the tidal stress data, and the multiple sub-regions, determine the first loading / unloading response ratio generated by the tidal stress data in the predicted region within the first time window, and determine the second loading / unloading response ratio generated by the tidal stress data in the predicted region within the second time window; the first time window is the period between the first preset time point and the third preset time point before the occurrence of the earthquake of the preset magnitude; the second time window is the period between the second preset time point and the fourth preset time point before the occurrence of the earthquake of the preset magnitude.
[0036] In this embodiment, the preset time period is 19 months; the first time window and the second time window are both 18 months.
[0037] Step S104: Based on the first loading / unloading response ratio and the second loading / unloading response ratio, determine the sub-regions in which aftershocks occur among the multiple sub-regions.
[0038] This invention provides an aftershock prediction method, comprising: acquiring an earthquake catalog of a region to be predicted from which an earthquake of a preset magnitude occurred within a preset time period, and tidal stress data of the region to be predicted within the preset time period; the preset time period indicates a first preset time point before the earthquake of the preset magnitude occurred to a second preset time point after the earthquake of the preset magnitude occurred; the time interval between the earthquake of the preset magnitude and the second preset time point is less than or equal to 5 days; dividing the region to be predicted into multiple sub-regions based on preset size parameters; determining a first loading / unloading response ratio generated by the tidal stress data in the region to be predicted within a first time window, and determining a second loading / unloading response ratio generated by the tidal stress data in the region to be predicted within a second time window, based on the earthquake catalog, the tidal stress data, and the multiple sub-regions; the first time window is the period between the first preset time point and a third preset time point before the earthquake of the preset magnitude occurred; the second time window is the period between the second preset time point and a fourth preset time point before the earthquake of the preset magnitude occurred; and determining the sub-regions where aftershocks occur within the multiple sub-regions based on the first loading / unloading response ratio and the second loading / unloading response ratio. This method divides the area to be predicted into blocks and calculates the loading and unloading response ratio of the area to be predicted for a period of time after the earthquake and the loading and unloading response ratio for a period of time before the earthquake. The change in the loading and unloading response ratio is obtained, and then aftershocks are predicted, which improves the positioning accuracy and prediction efficiency of aftershock prediction.
[0039] Example 2
[0040] Based on the above embodiments, this invention provides another aftershock prediction method. Figure 2 This is a flowchart illustrating another aftershock prediction method provided in an embodiment of the present invention.
[0041] Depend on Figure 2 As seen, the method includes:
[0042] Step S201: Obtain the earthquake catalog of the area to be predicted where an earthquake of the preset magnitude occurs within a preset time period, and the tidal stress data of the area to be predicted within the preset time period; the preset time period is used to indicate the period from a first preset time point before the earthquake of the preset magnitude occurs to a second preset time point after the earthquake of the preset magnitude occurs; the time interval between the earthquake of the preset magnitude and the second preset time point is less than or equal to 5 days.
[0043] In this embodiment, the preset earthquake level is a magnitude 7 earthquake; the area to be predicted is the region within 200 km of the epicenter in the earthquake catalog; the earthquake catalog contains earthquakes of magnitude 0 to 4 that occurred in the area to be predicted within a preset time period; the preset time period is 19 months; and the interval between the first preset time point and the occurrence of the preset earthquake level is 18 months and 25 days.
[0044] Furthermore, the specific parameters of the aforementioned preset earthquake level, the aforementioned area to be predicted, the aforementioned earthquake catalog, the aforementioned preset time period, the aforementioned first preset time point, and the aforementioned second preset time point can be set according to actual needs.
[0045] Furthermore, step S201 above also includes: obtaining the calculation parameters for tidal stress: Earth radius, Earth's elastic constant, mass of Earth, Moon and Sun, distance from the Earth's center to the Moon's center and the Sun's center, Earth's center-zenith distance, Earth's latitude, hour angle and declination of the Moon or Sun, and related astronomical and geophysical parameters.
[0046] Step S202: Based on preset size parameters, divide the above-mentioned region to be predicted into multiple sub-regions.
[0047] Step S203: Based on the earthquake catalog, the tidal stress data, and the multiple sub-regions, determine the first loading / unloading response ratio generated by the tidal stress data in the predicted region within the first time window, and determine the second loading / unloading response ratio generated by the tidal stress data in the predicted region within the second time window; the first time window is the period between the first preset time point and the third preset time point before the occurrence of the earthquake of the preset magnitude; the second time window is the period between the second preset time point and the fourth preset time point before the occurrence of the earthquake of the preset magnitude.
[0048] In this embodiment, the third preset time point is 25 days away from the occurrence of the earthquake of the preset magnitude; the fourth preset time point is 17 months and 25 days away from the occurrence of the earthquake of the preset magnitude; and the first time window and the second time window are both 18 months.
[0049] In this embodiment, the aforementioned tidal stress data is used as a means of loading and unloading the crustal medium to calculate the tidal stress at any point at any time. Furthermore, the Coulomb failure criterion is adopted to determine loading and unloading based on the increase and decrease of the Coulomb stress change on the fault plane caused by the tidal stress data at a certain point at a certain time.
[0050] Step S204: Calculate the difference between the first loading / unloading response ratio and the second loading / unloading response ratio to obtain the rate of change of the loading / unloading response ratio corresponding to the sub-region.
[0051] Step S205: Based on the rate of change of the loading / unloading response ratio corresponding to the above sub-regions, determine the sub-regions in which aftershocks occur among the above multiple sub-regions.
[0052] In this embodiment, step S205 includes: first, filtering out dangerous sub-regions whose loading / unloading response ratio change rate is greater than a preset threshold. Then, identifying the dangerous sub-regions as sub-regions among the plurality of sub-regions where aftershocks occur.
[0053] This invention provides an aftershock prediction method, comprising: acquiring an earthquake catalog of a region to be predicted from which an earthquake of a preset magnitude occurred within a preset time period, and tidal stress data of the region to be predicted within the preset time period; the preset time period is used to indicate a first preset time point before the occurrence of the earthquake of the preset magnitude and a second preset time point after the occurrence of the earthquake of the preset magnitude; the time interval between the occurrence of the earthquake of the preset magnitude and the second preset time point is less than or equal to 5 days; dividing the region to be predicted into multiple sub-regions based on preset size parameters; and determining, according to the earthquake catalog, the tidal stress data, and the multiple sub-regions, the tidal stress data within a first time window is... The method involves dividing the region to be predicted into blocks and calculating the difference between the loading / unloading response ratio of the region after an earthquake and the loading / unloading response ratio of the region before an earthquake, thereby obtaining the loading / unloading response ratio change rate and predicting aftershocks. This method improves the positioning accuracy and prediction efficiency of aftershock prediction by dividing the region to be predicted into blocks and calculating the difference between the loading / unloading response ratio of the region to be predicted for a period of time after the earthquake and the loading / unloading response ratio for a period of time before the earthquake, thus obtaining the loading / unloading response ratio change rate and predicting aftershocks.
[0054] Example 3
[0055] Based on the above-mentioned aftershock prediction methods Figure 3 This is a schematic diagram of an aftershock prediction device provided in an embodiment of the present invention. Figure 3 As seen, the device includes:
[0056] The data acquisition module 31 is used to acquire the earthquake catalog of the area to be predicted where an earthquake of the preset level has occurred within a preset time period, and the tidal stress data of the area to be predicted within the preset time period; the preset time period is used to indicate the period from a first preset time point before the earthquake of the preset level occurs to a second preset time point after the earthquake of the preset level occurs; the time interval between the earthquake of the preset level and the second preset time point is less than or equal to 5 days.
[0057] The sub-region division module 32 is used to divide the above-mentioned region to be predicted into multiple sub-regions based on preset size parameters.
[0058] The loading / unloading response ratio calculation module 33 is used to determine, based on the earthquake catalog, the tidal stress data, and the multiple sub-regions, a first loading / unloading response ratio value generated by the tidal stress data in the region to be predicted within a first time window, and a second loading / unloading response ratio value generated by the tidal stress data in the region to be predicted within a second time window; the first time window is the period between the first preset time point and the third preset time point before the occurrence of the earthquake of the preset magnitude; the second time window is the period between the second preset time point and the fourth preset time point before the occurrence of the earthquake of the preset magnitude.
[0059] The aftershock prediction module 34 is used to determine the sub-regions in which aftershocks occur in the plurality of sub-regions based on the first loading / unloading response ratio and the second loading / unloading response ratio.
[0060] The data acquisition module 31, the sub-region division module 32, the loading / unloading response ratio calculation module 33, and the aftershock prediction module 34 are connected in sequence.
[0061] In one possible implementation, the loading / unloading response ratio calculation module 33 is further configured to calculate the difference between the first loading / unloading response ratio and the second loading / unloading response ratio to obtain the loading / unloading response ratio change rate corresponding to the sub-region; and determine the sub-region in which aftershocks occur among the plurality of sub-regions based on the loading / unloading response ratio change rate corresponding to the sub-region.
[0062] In one possible implementation, the aftershock prediction module 34 is further configured to filter out dangerous sub-regions whose loading / unloading response ratio change rate is greater than a preset threshold; and to determine the dangerous sub-regions as sub-regions in which aftershocks occur among the plurality of sub-regions.
[0063] The aftershock prediction device provided in this embodiment of the invention has the same technical features as the aftershock prediction method provided in the above embodiments, and therefore can solve the same technical problems and achieve the same technical effects. Those skilled in the art will clearly understand that, for the sake of convenience and brevity, the specific working process of the device described above can be referred to the corresponding process in the foregoing method embodiments, and will not be repeated here.
[0064] Example 4
[0065] This embodiment provides an electronic device, including a processor and a memory. The memory stores computer-executable instructions that can be executed by the processor, and the processor executes the computer-executable instructions to implement the steps of an aftershock prediction method.
[0066] This embodiment provides a computer-readable storage medium storing a computer program that, when executed by a processor, implements the steps of an aftershock prediction method.
[0067] See Figure 4 The diagram shows the structure of an electronic device, which includes a memory 41 and a processor 42. The memory 41 stores a computer program that can run on the processor 42. When the processor executes the computer program, it implements the steps provided by the above-mentioned aftershock prediction method.
[0068] like Figure 4 As shown, the device also includes a bus 43 and a communication interface 44, with the processor 42, the communication interface 44 and the memory 41 connected via the bus 43; the processor 42 is used to execute executable modules, such as computer programs, stored in the memory 41.
[0069] The memory 41 may include high-speed random access memory (RAM) or non-volatile memory, such as at least one disk storage device. Communication between this system network element and at least one other network element is achieved through at least one communication interface 44 (which can be wired or wireless), such as the Internet, wide area network, local area network, metropolitan area network, etc.
[0070] Bus 43 can be an ISA bus, PCI bus, or EISA bus, etc. Buses can be divided into address buses, data buses, control buses, etc. For ease of representation, Figure 4 The symbol is represented by a single double-headed arrow, but this does not mean that there is only one bus or one type of bus.
[0071] The memory 41 stores the program, and the processor 42 executes the program after receiving the execution instruction. The method performed by the aftershock prediction device disclosed in any of the foregoing embodiments of the present invention can be applied to the processor 42, or implemented by the processor 42. The processor 42 may be an integrated circuit chip with signal processing capabilities. In the implementation process, each step of the above method can be completed by the integrated logic circuit in the hardware of the processor 42 or by instructions in the form of software. The processor 42 may be a general-purpose processor, including a central processing unit (CPU), a network processor (NP), etc.; it may also be a digital signal processor (DSP), an application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC), a field-programmable gate array (FPGA), or other programmable logic devices, discrete gate or transistor logic devices, or discrete hardware components. It can implement or execute the methods, steps, and logic block diagrams disclosed in the embodiments of the present invention. The general-purpose processor may be a microprocessor or any conventional processor. The steps of the method disclosed in the embodiments of this invention can be directly manifested as being executed by a hardware decoding processor, or executed by a combination of hardware and software modules in the decoding processor. The software modules can reside in random access memory, flash memory, read-only memory, programmable read-only memory, electrically erasable programmable memory, registers, or other mature storage media in the art. This storage medium is located in memory 41, and processor 42 reads information from memory 41 and, in conjunction with its hardware, completes the steps of the above method.
[0072] Furthermore, this embodiment of the invention also provides a machine-readable storage medium storing machine-executable instructions. When these machine-executable instructions are invoked and executed by the processor 42, they cause the processor 42 to implement the above-described aftershock prediction method.
[0073] The electronic devices and computer-readable storage media provided in the embodiments of the present invention have the same technical features, so they can also solve the same technical problems and achieve the same technical effects.
[0074] Furthermore, in the description of the embodiments of the present invention, unless otherwise explicitly specified and limited, the terms "installation," "connection," and "linking" should be interpreted broadly. For example, they can refer to a fixed connection, a detachable connection, or an integral connection; they can refer to a mechanical connection or an electrical connection; they can refer to a direct connection or an indirect connection through an intermediate medium; and they can refer to the internal connection of two components. Those skilled in the art can understand the specific meaning of the above terms in the present invention based on the specific circumstances.
[0075] In the description of this invention, it should be noted that the terms "center," "upper," "lower," "left," "right," "vertical," "horizontal," "inner," and "outer," etc., indicate the orientation or positional relationship based on the orientation or positional relationship shown in the accompanying drawings. They are used only for the convenience of describing the invention and for simplifying the description, and do not indicate or imply that the device or element referred to must have a specific orientation, or be constructed and operated in a specific orientation. Therefore, they should not be construed as limitations on the invention. Furthermore, the terms "first," "second," and "third" are used for descriptive purposes only and should not be construed as indicating or implying relative importance.
Claims
1. A method for predicting aftershocks, characterized in that, include: Obtain an earthquake catalog of the area to be predicted where an earthquake of a preset magnitude has occurred within a preset time period, and tidal stress data of the area to be predicted within the preset time period; wherein, the preset time period is used to indicate a first preset time point before the earthquake of the preset magnitude occurs to a second preset time point after the earthquake of the preset magnitude occurs; the time interval between the earthquake of the preset magnitude and the second preset time point is less than or equal to 5 days. Based on the earthquake catalog, the tidal stress data, and multiple sub-regions of the region to be predicted, a first loading / unloading response ratio generated by the tidal stress data within the region to be predicted in a first time window is determined, and a second loading / unloading response ratio generated by the tidal stress data within the region to be predicted in a second time window is determined; wherein, the multiple sub-regions are obtained by dividing the region to be predicted based on preset size parameters; the first time window is the period between the first preset time point and the third preset time point before the occurrence of the preset magnitude earthquake; the second time window is the period between the second preset time point and the fourth preset time point before the occurrence of the preset magnitude earthquake. Calculate the difference between the first loading / unloading response ratio and the second loading / unloading response ratio to obtain the rate of change of the loading / unloading response ratio corresponding to the sub-region; The dangerous sub-regions corresponding to the sub-regions whose loading / unloading response ratio change rate is greater than a preset threshold are selected, and the dangerous sub-regions are identified as the sub-regions in which aftershocks will occur among the multiple sub-regions.
2. The aftershock prediction method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The step of dividing the region to be predicted into multiple sub-regions based on preset size parameters includes: Based on preset size parameters, the region to be predicted is divided into grids to obtain a gridded region; The gridded region is divided into multiple sub-regions.
3. The aftershock prediction method according to claim 2, characterized in that, Each of the gridded regions has a longitude and latitude of 0.25 degrees.
4. The aftershock prediction method according to any one of claims 1-3, characterized in that, The preset time period is 19 months; both the first time window and the second time window are 18 months.
5. The aftershock prediction method according to any one of claims 1-3, characterized in that, The preset earthquake level is a magnitude 7 earthquake; the area to be predicted is the region within 200 km of the epicenter in the earthquake catalog; the earthquake catalog contains earthquakes of magnitude 0 to 4 that occurred in the area to be predicted within a preset time period.
6. An aftershock prediction device, characterized in that, include: The data acquisition module is used to acquire an earthquake catalog of the area to be predicted where an earthquake of a preset magnitude has occurred within a preset time period, and tidal stress data of the area to be predicted within the preset time period; wherein, the preset time period is used to indicate a first preset time point before the earthquake of the preset magnitude occurs to a second preset time point after the earthquake of the preset magnitude occurs; the time interval between the earthquake of the preset magnitude and the second preset time point is less than or equal to 5 days. The loading / unloading response ratio calculation module is used to determine, based on the earthquake catalog, the tidal stress data, and multiple sub-regions of the region to be predicted, a first loading / unloading response ratio value generated by the tidal stress data within the region to be predicted in a first time window, and a second loading / unloading response ratio value generated by the tidal stress data within the region to be predicted in a second time window; wherein, the multiple sub-regions are obtained by dividing the region to be predicted based on preset size parameters; the first time window is the period between the first preset time point and the third preset time point before the occurrence of the preset magnitude earthquake; the second time window is the period between the second preset time point and the fourth preset time point before the occurrence of the preset magnitude earthquake. The aftershock prediction module is used to obtain the rate of change of the loading / unloading response ratio corresponding to the sub-region based on the difference between the first loading / unloading response ratio and the second loading / unloading response ratio; filter out dangerous sub-regions whose rate of change of the loading / unloading response ratio is greater than a preset threshold, and determine the dangerous sub-regions as sub-regions in which aftershocks will occur among the multiple sub-regions.
7. An electronic device, characterized in that, The electronic device includes a processor and a memory, the memory storing computer-executable instructions that can be executed by the processor, the processor executing the computer-executable instructions to implement the aftershock prediction method according to any one of claims 1 to 5.
8. A computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, characterized in that, When executed by a processor, the program implements the aftershock prediction method according to any one of claims 1 to 5.