A multi-parameter and multi-indicator earthquake magnitude classification joint early warning method based on microseismic monitoring

Abstract

The present invention discloses a multi-parameter and multi-index magnitude classification joint early warning method based on microseismic monitoring, comprising the steps of obtaining precursory microseismic information of disaster accidents in rock mass instability risk areas; analyzing and processing the obtained data to select representative source parameters; establishing a probability reliability estimation model for the possibility of disaster accidents such as rock bursts in dangerous areas through a multi-parameter joint probability distribution function, determining the probability of disaster accidents, and constructing an accident consequence equivalent index through the severity of accident consequences; constructing a risk matrix expectation table based on risk matrix theory; determining the risk level of the monitored area through grading and evaluating the rock mass instability risk areas, taking corresponding protective measures, and completing early warning processing for the monitored area; the method of the present invention can quantify the probability of accident occurrence and improve guidance.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention belongs to the technical field of deep mine microseismic early warning classification, and specifically relates to a multi-parameter and multi-indicator magnitude classification joint early warning method based on microseismic monitoring. Background Art

[0002] As shallow resources become increasingly depleted, mining depths continue to increase, and the space of underground goafs continues to increase. Rock burst disasters occur frequently in underground mine construction, and the safety of deep hard rock underground construction faces severe challenges. Mines entering deep mining environments will face high stress, high temperature, high osmotic pressure, high well depth and strong mining disturbance problems. Once a rock burst or ground pressure disaster occurs, it will lead to serious accident consequences, seriously threatening the lives of miners and the safety of national property.

[0003] Most of the results obtained from traditional prediction models for disasters such as rock bursts are qualitative risk levels, and most of them focus on the research of accident tendency judgment criteria. The corresponding relationship between accident risk level and occurrence probability has not yet been given, making it difficult to quantify the probability of accident occurrence.

[0004] Currently, most existing technologies focus on predicting the risk level of disasters such as rockbursts. For example, rockburst prediction methods based on various machine learning algorithms and microseismic monitoring systems have become effective means of predicting disasters such as rockbursts in the short term. However, these methods have difficulty quantifying the probability of disaster accidents and do not provide a relationship between the accident probability and its risk level. Summary of the Invention

[0005] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a multi-parameter, multi-index magnitude classification joint early warning method based on microseismic monitoring, which can quantify the probability of an accident and improve guidance.

[0006] The multi-parameter, multi-indicator, magnitude classification and joint early warning method based on microseismic monitoring provided by the present invention comprises the following steps:

[0007] S1. Obtaining microseismic information that could indicate a disaster in an area at risk of rock instability;

[0008] S2. Analyze and process the precursory microseismic information data obtained in step S1 and select representative source parameters;

[0009] S3. Using the source parameters selected in step S2, a multi-parameter joint probability distribution function is used to establish a probability reliability estimation model for the possibility of disasters such as rock bursts in dangerous areas, determine the probability of disasters, and construct an accident consequence equivalent index based on the severity of the accident consequences;

[0010] S4. Using the indicators determined in step S3, based on the risk matrix theory, construct a risk matrix expectation table;

[0011] S5. Using the risk matrix expectation table constructed in step S4, the risk level of the monitored area is determined by classifying and evaluating the rock instability risk area, taking appropriate protective measures, and completing the early warning process for the monitored area;

[0012] The step S1 of obtaining precursory microseismic information of a disaster accident in a rock mass instability risk area specifically includes:

[0013] Through the microseismic monitoring system, microseismic events are analyzed from a time-series perspective. Under different mining disturbances, the process of rock mass instability is analyzed based on the static spatial expansion of rock microcracks. From the perspective of project progress, the changing patterns of microseismic events along with excavation activities are analyzed, and the dynamic process of crack incubation, expansion and destruction at different locations in the rock mass is analyzed.

[0014] Step S2, analyzing and processing the precursory microseismic information data obtained in step S1 to select representative source parameters, specifically includes:

[0015] Common microseismic parameters that are closely related to microfracture activity and can reflect the rockburst incubation patterns in the monitored area are selected, including:

[0016] Cumulative number of events N (number), cumulative logarithm of released energy lgE (J), cumulative logarithm of apparent volume lgV (m 3 );

[0017] In step S3, the earthquake source parameters selected in step S2 are used to establish a probability reliability estimation model for the possibility of disaster accidents such as rock bursts in dangerous areas through a multi-parameter joint probability distribution function, determine the probability of disaster accidents, and construct an accident consequence equivalent index based on the severity of the accident consequences, specifically including:

[0018] (3-1) Joint probability distribution function of multi-parameter variables:

[0019] The non-parametric kernel density estimation method is used to estimate the kernel density function of the earthquake source parameters, and the probability density functions of the three microseismic monitoring parameters of rock burst disasters are determined respectively. The calculation formula is as follows:

[0020]

[0021]

[0022]

[0023] Among them, f N (n) represents the probability density function corresponding to the cumulative number of events; f E (e) represents the probability density function corresponding to the logarithm of the cumulative released energy; f V(v) represents the probability density function corresponding to the logarithm of the cumulative apparent volume; K(·) represents the kernel function; n represents the cumulative number of events; e represents the cumulative released energy; v represents the cumulative apparent volume;

[0024] For the calculated f N (n), f E (e), f V (v) Perform integration processing to obtain the corresponding marginal cumulative distribution function F N (n), F E (e), F V (v);

[0025] The “rockburst disaster risk” is defined as the number of microseismic events, the cumulative energy released by microseismic events, and the cumulative apparent volume of microseismic events, which are jointly constructed into a joint distribution Copula function relationship. The calculation formula is as follows:

[0026] C θ (N,E)=P(N≤n,lgE≤lge)=C θ (F N (n),F E (e))

[0027] C θ (N,V)=P(N≤n,lgE≤lgv)=C θ (F N (n),F V (v))

[0028] C θ (E,V)=P(lgE≤lge,lgV≤lgv)=C θ (F E (e),F V (v))

[0029] Among them, C θ (·) represents the Copula function of microseismic parameters; θ represents the unknown coefficient;

[0030] Based on the Copula function, a joint probability distribution function of multiple parameter variables is constructed for the uncertainty of the selected microseismic parameters to express the nonlinear relationship between the hazard probability of disaster occurrence and the microseismic parameters. The following formula is used to express the joint distribution function of rockburst hazard based on the Copula function:

[0031] C Gu (u,v)=exp(-[(-lnu) 1.19125 +(-lnv) 1.19125 ] 1 / 1.19125 )

[0032] CGu (u,w)=exp(-[(-lnu) 1.8934 +(-lnw) 1.8934 ] 1 / 1.8934 )

[0033]

[0034] Among them, C Gu (u, v) represents the two-dimensional joint distribution Copula function of the number of microseismic events and the logarithm of the cumulative energy released by microseismic events, which is established by selecting the Gumbel Copula function; C Gu (u,w) represents the two-dimensional joint distribution Copula function of the number of microseismic events and the logarithm of the microseismic cumulative apparent volume established by the Gumbel Copula function; C t (v,w) represents the two-dimensional joint distribution Copula function of the logarithm of the microseismic cumulative released energy and the logarithm of the microseismic cumulative apparent volume established by selecting the t-Copula function;

[0035] u represents the cumulative probability of the marginal distribution function corresponding to the number of microseismic events, and the calculation formula is as follows:

[0036] u=F N (n)

[0037] v represents the cumulative probability of the marginal distribution function corresponding to the logarithm of the cumulative energy released by microseismic, and the calculation formula is as follows:

[0038] v=F E (e)

[0039] w represents the cumulative probability of the marginal distribution function corresponding to the logarithm of the cumulative apparent volume of microseismic events, and the calculation formula is as follows:

[0040] w=F V (v)

[0041] k represents the degree of freedom; t represents the t distribution; Expressed as the inverse function of the univariate t distribution with k degrees of freedom;

[0042] When studying rockburst risk, we usually focus on the magnitude of rockburst risk when the number of microseismic events, the cumulative energy released by microseismic events, and the apparent volume of microseismic events exceeds a certain value. The following formula is used to calculate the rockburst risk probability:

[0043] P(N>n,E>lge)=1-F N (n)-F E (e)+F N,E (n,e)=1-F N (n)-F E (e)+CGu (u,v)P(N>n,V>lgv)=1-F N (n)-F V (v)+F N,V (n,v)=1-F N (n)-F V (v)+C Gu (u,w)

[0044] P(E>e,V>lgv)=1-F E (e)-F V (v)+F E,V (e,v)=1-F E (e)-F V (v)+C t (v,w)

[0045] Among them, P(N>n, E>lge) represents the disaster probability when the logarithm of microseismic events and the cumulative energy released by microseisms exceeds a certain value; P(N>n, V>lgv) represents the disaster probability when the logarithm of microseismic events and the cumulative apparent volume of microseisms exceed a certain value; P(E>e, V>lgv) represents the disaster probability when the logarithm of the cumulative energy released by microseisms and the logarithm of the cumulative apparent volume of microseisms exceed a certain value;

[0046] (3-2) Classification of rock burst hazard levels in the monitoring area:

[0047] Based on the rockburst probability obtained in step (3-1), the rockburst hazard level in the monitoring area is divided into the following five levels according to the rockburst level:

[0048] When the probability of rock burst disaster is 0≤P<0.2, the rock burst level is “no danger zone”;

[0049] When the probability of rock burst disaster is 0.2≤P<0.4, the rock burst level is “low risk zone”;

[0050] When the probability of rock burst disaster is 0.4≤P<0.6, the rock burst level is “medium danger zone”;

[0051] When the probability of rock burst disaster is 0.6≤P<0.8, the rock burst level is “high risk zone”;

[0052] When the probability of rock burst disaster is 0.8≤P<1, the rock burst level is “extremely high risk zone”;

[0053] (3-3) Determine the accident consequence equivalent index:

[0054] The severity of the consequences of rock burst disasters was quantitatively evaluated from three aspects: casualties, roadway damage, and construction delay. The following formula was used to establish the accident consequence equivalent index:

[0055] S1=k1D1+k2D2+k3D3

[0056] S2=br

[0057] DC=S1+S2+S3

[0058] Among them, S1 represents the loss of personnel injuries; k1 represents the comprehensive property loss caused by one death according to the current economic situation; k2 represents the comprehensive property loss caused by one serious injury according to the current economic situation; k3 represents the comprehensive property loss caused by one minor injury according to the current economic situation; D1 represents the number of deaths; D2 represents the number of serious injuries; D3 represents the number of minor injuries; S2 represents the loss due to roadway damage; b represents the loss due to roadway damage per unit distance selected according to the project scale; r represents the distance to the damaged roadway; S3 represents the loss due to construction delay; DC represents the total equivalent value of the accident, in ten thousand yuan;

[0059] When DC>1000, the corresponding consequence level S is 5, and the consequence level is described as "catastrophic";

[0060] When the DC ranges from 300 to 1000, the corresponding consequence level S is 4, and the consequence level is described as “serious”;

[0061] When DC ranges from 100 to 300, the corresponding consequence level S is 3, and the consequence level is described as “serious”;

[0062] When the DC ranges from 30 to 100, the corresponding consequence level S is 2, and the consequence level is described as "average";

[0063] When DC is less than 30, the corresponding consequence level S is 1, and the consequence level is described as “mild”;

[0064] Step S4 uses the indicators determined in step S3 to construct a risk matrix expectation table, which specifically includes:

[0065] Using the indicators determined in step S3, combined with the risk probability and accident consequences, we can obtain the risk matrix expectation table and the corresponding rockburst prevention and control measures:

[0066] (4-1) When the risk probability is "very high risk" 0.8≤P<1, the consequence level is S=1, and the rock burst risk is 0.8≤R<1, which means "unexpected". The control principle and solution selection should be taken seriously, and precautions and monitoring measures should be taken;

[0067] When the risk probability is "very high risk" 0.8≤P<1, the consequence level is S=2, and the rock burst risk is 1.6≤R<2, indicating "unacceptable", the control principle and solution selection: decision-making and formulation of control and early warning measures are required;

[0068] When the risk probability is "very high risk" 0.8≤P<1, the consequence level is S=3, and the rock burst risk is 2.4≤R<3, indicating "unacceptable", the control principle and solution selection: decision-making and formulation of control and early warning measures are required;

[0069] When the risk probability is "very high risk" 0.8≤P<1, the consequence level is S=4, and the rock burst risk is 3.2≤R<4, it means "rejection". The control principle and solution selection are: stop immediately, rectify, avoid or activate the emergency plan;

[0070] When the risk probability is "very high risk" 0.8≤P<1, the consequence level is S=5, and the rock burst risk is 4≤R<5, it means "rejection". The control principle and solution selection are: stop immediately, rectify, avoid or activate the emergency plan;

[0071] (4-2) When the risk probability is "high risk" 0.6≤P<0.8, the consequence level is S=1, and the rock burst risk is 0.6≤R<0.8, which means "unexpected". The control principle and solution selection should be taken seriously, and precautions and monitoring measures should be taken;

[0072] When the risk probability is "high risk" 0.6≤P<0.8, the consequence level is S=2, and the rock burst risk is 1.2≤R<1.6, indicating "unexpected", the control principle and solution selection should be taken seriously, and prevention and monitoring measures should be taken;

[0073] When the risk probability is "high risk" 0.6≤P<0.8, the consequence level is S=3, and the rock burst risk is 1.8≤R<2.4, indicating "unacceptable", the control principle and solution selection: decision-making and formulation of control and early warning measures are required;

[0074] When the risk probability is "high risk" 0.6≤P<0.8, the consequence level is S=4, and the rock burst risk is 2.4≤R<3.2, it means "unacceptable". Control principles and solution selection: decision-making and formulation of control and early warning measures are required;

[0075] When the risk probability is "high risk" 0.6≤P<0.8, the consequence level is S=5, and the rock burst risk is 3≤R<4, it means "unacceptable". The control principle and solution selection are: stop immediately, rectify, avoid or activate the emergency plan;

[0076] (4-3) When the risk probability is "medium risk" 0.4≤P<0.6, the consequence level is S=1, and the rock burst risk is 0.4≤R<0.6, which means "acceptable". The control principle and solution selection are: focus on and strengthen daily management and maintenance, and strive to reduce risks;

[0077] When the risk probability is "medium risk" 0.4≤P<0.6, the consequence level is S=2, and the rock burst risk is 0.8≤R<1.2, indicating "unexpected", the control principle and solution selection should be taken seriously, and prevention and monitoring measures should be taken;

[0078] When the risk probability is "medium risk" 0.4≤P<0.6, the consequence level is S=3, and the rock burst risk is 1.2≤R<1.8, indicating "unexpected", the control principle and solution selection should be taken seriously, and prevention and monitoring measures should be taken;

[0079] When the risk probability is "medium risk" 0.4≤P<0.6, the consequence level is S=4, and the rock burst risk is 1.6≤R<2.4, indicating "unexpected", the control principle and solution selection should be taken seriously, and prevention and monitoring measures should be taken;

[0080] When the risk probability is "medium risk" 0.4≤P<0.6, the consequence level is S=5, and the rock burst risk is 2≤R<3, indicating "unacceptable", the control principle and solution selection: decision-making and formulation of control and early warning measures are required;

[0081] (4-4) When the risk probability is "low risk" 0.2≤P<0.4, the consequence level is S=1, and the rock burst risk is 0.2≤R<0.4, indicating "negligible", the control principle and solution selection are: only daily management and monitoring are required;

[0082] When the risk probability is "low risk" 0.2≤P<0.4, the consequence level is S=2, and the rock burst risk is 0.4≤R<0.8, which means "acceptable". The control principles and solution selection are: focus on and strengthen daily management and maintenance, and strive to reduce risks;

[0083] When the risk probability is "low risk" 0.2≤P<0.4, the consequence level is S=3, and the rock burst risk is 0.6≤R<1.2, indicating "unexpected", the control principle and solution selection should be taken seriously, and prevention and monitoring measures should be taken;

[0084] When the risk probability is "low risk" 0.2≤P<0.4, the consequence level is S=4, and the rock burst risk is 0.8≤R<1.6, indicating "unexpected", the control principle and solution selection should be taken seriously, and prevention and monitoring measures should be taken;

[0085] When the risk probability is "low risk" 0.2≤P<0.4, the consequence level is S=5, and the rock burst risk is 1≤R<2, indicating "unexpected", the control principle and solution selection should be taken seriously, and prevention and monitoring measures should be taken;

[0086] (4-5) When the risk probability is “no risk” 0≤P<0.2, the consequence level is S=1, and the rock burst risk is 0≤R<0.2, indicating “negligible”, the control principle and solution selection are: only daily management and monitoring are required;

[0087] When the risk probability is "no risk" 0≤P<0.2, the consequence level is S=2, and the rock burst risk is 0.2≤R<0.4, indicating "negligible", the control principle and solution selection are: only daily management and monitoring are required;

[0088] When the risk probability is "no risk" 0≤P<0.2, the consequence level is S=3, and the rock burst risk is 0.4≤R<0.6, it means "acceptable". The control principles and solution selection are: focus on and strengthen daily management and maintenance, and strive to reduce risks;

[0089] When the risk probability is "no risk" 0≤P<0.2, the consequence level is S=4, and the rock burst risk is 0.6≤R<0.8, it means "acceptable". The control principles and solution selection are: focus on and strengthen daily management and maintenance, and strive to reduce risks;

[0090] When the risk probability is "no risk" 0≤P<0.2, the consequence level is S=5, and the rock burst risk is 0.8≤R<1, it means "unexpected". The control principle and solution selection should be taken seriously, and precautions and monitoring measures should be taken;

[0091] The risk matrix expectation table constructed in step S4 described in step S5 determines the risk level of the monitored area by grading and evaluating the rock mass instability risk area, takes protective measures, and completes the early warning processing of the monitored area, specifically including:

[0092] On the basis of determining the risk value of the rock mass instability danger zone, a dynamic monitoring and risk classification model of the high stress rock mass area hazard is constructed, and a feasibility analysis of the evaluation system of the hazard classification effect is carried out.

[0093] The multi-parameter and multi-index magnitude classification joint early warning method based on microseismic monitoring provided by the present invention selects source parameters by obtaining precursory microseismic information of disaster accidents in rock instability risk areas; proposes a multi-parameter joint probability distribution function, establishes a probability model for the possibility of disaster occurrence, and determines the accident consequence equivalent index according to the severity of the accident consequences; based on the risk matrix theory, constructs a risk matrix expectation table, determines the risk level of the monitored area, and then completes the early warning processing of the monitored area; the method of the present invention is of great significance for grading the risk and magnitude of rock instability risk areas monitored by microseismic monitoring, guiding the evacuation of personnel and equipment in abnormal areas where microseismic events occur, and reducing the risk of short-term personnel operations; and the method of the present invention can quantify the probability of accident occurrence and improve guidance. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0094] Figure 1 Schematic diagram of the process of the present invention.

[0095] Figure 2 Schematic diagram of the steps of the method of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0096] like Figure 1 The method flow diagram of the present invention is shown as follows: The multi-parameter, multi-indicator, magnitude classification and joint early warning method based on microseismic monitoring provided by the present invention comprises the following steps:

[0097] S1. Obtaining microseismic information that could indicate a disaster in an area at risk of rock instability; specifically, including:

[0098] Through the microseismic monitoring system, microseismic events are analyzed from a time-series perspective. Under different mining disturbances, the process of rock mass instability is analyzed based on the static spatial expansion of rock microcracks. From the perspective of project progress, the changing patterns of microseismic events along with excavation activities are analyzed, and the dynamic process of crack incubation, expansion and destruction at different locations in the rock mass is analyzed.

[0099] S2. Analyze and process the precursory microseismic information data obtained in step S1 and select representative source parameters; specifically, the following steps are performed:

[0100] Common microseismic parameters that are closely related to microfracture activity and can reflect the rockburst incubation patterns in the monitored area are selected, including:

[0101] Cumulative number of events N (number), cumulative logarithm of released energy lgE (J), cumulative logarithm of apparent volume lgV (m 3 );

[0102] S3. Using the earthquake source parameters selected in step S2, a multi-parameter joint probability distribution function is used to establish a probability reliability estimation model for the possibility of disaster accidents such as rock bursts in dangerous areas, determine the probability of disaster accidents, and construct an accident consequence equivalent index based on the severity of the accident consequences; specifically, the following are included:

[0103] (3-1) Joint probability distribution function of multi-parameter variables:

[0104] The non-parametric kernel density estimation method is used to estimate the kernel density function of the earthquake source parameters, and the probability density functions of the three microseismic monitoring parameters of rock burst disasters are determined respectively. The calculation formula is as follows:

[0105]

[0106]

[0107]

[0108] Among them, f N (n) represents the probability density function corresponding to the cumulative number of events; f E (e) represents the probability density function corresponding to the logarithm of the cumulative released energy; f V (v) represents the probability density function corresponding to the logarithm of the cumulative apparent volume; K(·) represents the kernel function; n represents the cumulative number of events; e represents the cumulative released energy; v represents the cumulative apparent volume;

[0109] For the calculated f N (n), f E (e), f V (v) Perform integration processing to obtain the corresponding marginal cumulative distribution function F N (n), F E (e), F V (v);

[0110] The “rockburst disaster risk” is defined as the number of microseismic events, the cumulative energy released by microseismic events, and the cumulative apparent volume of microseismic events, which are jointly constructed into a joint distribution Copula function relationship. The calculation formula is as follows:

[0111] C θ (N,E)=P(N≤n,lgE≤lge)=C θ (F N (n),F E (e))

[0112] C θ (N,V)=P(N≤n,lgE≤lgv)=C θ (F N (n),F V(v))

[0113] C θ (E,V)=P(lgE≤lge,lgV≤lgv)=C θ (F E (e),F V (v))

[0114] Among them, C θ (·) represents the Copula function of microseismic parameters; θ represents the unknown coefficient;

[0115] Based on the Copula function, a joint probability distribution function of multiple parameter variables is constructed for the uncertainty of the selected microseismic parameters to express the nonlinear relationship between the hazard probability of disaster occurrence and the microseismic parameters. The following formula is used to express the joint distribution function of rockburst hazard based on the Copula function:

[0116] C Gu (u,v)=exp(-[(-lnu) 1.19125 +(-lnv) 1.19125 ] 1 / 1.19125 )

[0117] C Gu (u,w)=exp(-[(-lnu) 1.8934 +(-lnw) 1.8934 ] 1 / 1.8934 )

[0118]

[0119] Among them, C Gu (u, v) represents the two-dimensional joint distribution Copula function of the number of microseismic events and the logarithm of the cumulative energy released by microseismic events, which is established by selecting the Gumbel Copula function; C Gu (u,w) represents the two-dimensional joint distribution Copula function of the number of microseismic events and the logarithm of the microseismic cumulative apparent volume established by the Gumbel Copula function; C t (v,w) represents the two-dimensional joint distribution Copula function of the logarithm of the microseismic cumulative released energy and the logarithm of the microseismic cumulative apparent volume established by selecting the t-Copula function;

[0120] u represents the cumulative probability of the marginal distribution function corresponding to the number of microseismic events, and the calculation formula is as follows:

[0121] u=F N (n)

[0122] v represents the cumulative probability of the marginal distribution function corresponding to the logarithm of the cumulative energy released by microseismic, and the calculation formula is as follows:

[0123] v=F E (e)

[0124] w represents the cumulative probability of the marginal distribution function corresponding to the logarithm of the cumulative apparent volume of microseismic events, and the calculation formula is as follows:

[0125] w=F V (v)

[0126] k represents the degree of freedom; t represents the t distribution; Expressed as the inverse function of the univariate t distribution with k degrees of freedom;

[0127] When studying rockburst risk, we usually focus on the magnitude of rockburst risk when the number of microseismic events, the cumulative energy released by microseismic events, and the apparent volume of microseismic events exceeds a certain value. The following formula is used to calculate the rockburst risk probability:

[0128] P(N>n,E>lge)=1-F N (n)-F E (e)+F N,E (n,e)=1-F N (n)-F E (e)+C Gu (u,v)P(N>n,V>lgv)=1-F N (n)-F V (v)+F N,V (n,v)=1-F N (n)-F V (v)+C Gu (u,w)

[0129] P(E>e,V>lgv)=1-F E (e)-F V (v)+F E,V (e,v)=1-F E (e)-F V (v)+C t (v,w)

[0130] Among them, P(N>n, E>lge) represents the disaster probability when the logarithm of microseismic events and the cumulative energy released by microseisms exceeds a certain value; P(N>n, V>lgv) represents the disaster probability when the logarithm of microseismic events and the cumulative apparent volume of microseisms exceed a certain value; P(E>e, V>lgv) represents the disaster probability when the logarithm of the cumulative energy released by microseisms and the logarithm of the cumulative apparent volume of microseisms exceed a certain value;

[0131] (3-2) Classification of rock burst hazard levels in the monitoring area:

[0132] Based on the rockburst probability obtained in step (3-1), the rockburst hazard level in the monitoring area is divided into the following five levels according to the rockburst level:

[0133] When the rock burst level is “no danger zone”, the probability of rock burst disaster is 0≤P<0.2;

[0134] When the rockburst level is "low risk zone", the probability of rockburst disaster is 0.2≤P<0.4;

[0135] When the rockburst level is "medium danger zone", the probability of rockburst disaster is 0.4≤P<0.6;

[0136] When the rock burst level is "high risk zone", the probability of rock burst disaster is 0.6≤P<0.8;

[0137] When the rock burst level is "extremely high risk zone", the probability of rock burst disaster is 0.8≤P<1;

[0138] (3-3) Determine the accident consequence equivalent index:

[0139] The severity of the consequences of rock burst disasters was quantitatively evaluated from three aspects: casualties, roadway damage, and construction delay. The following formula was used to establish the accident consequence equivalent index:

[0140] S1=k1D1+k2D2+k3D3

[0141] S2=br

[0142] DC=S1+S2+S3

[0143] Among them, S1 represents the loss of personnel injuries; k1 represents the comprehensive property loss caused by one death according to the current economic situation; k2 represents the comprehensive property loss caused by one serious injury according to the current economic situation; k3 represents the comprehensive property loss caused by one minor injury according to the current economic situation; D1 represents the number of deaths; D2 represents the number of serious injuries; D3 represents the number of minor injuries; S2 represents the loss due to roadway damage; b represents the loss due to roadway damage per unit distance selected according to the project scale; r represents the distance to the damaged roadway; S3 represents the loss due to construction delay; DC represents the total equivalent value of the accident, in ten thousand yuan;

[0144] When DC>1000, the corresponding consequence level S is 5, and the consequence level is described as "catastrophic";

[0145] When the DC ranges from 300 to 1000, the corresponding consequence level S is 4, and the consequence level is described as “serious”;

[0146] When DC ranges from 100 to 300, the corresponding consequence level S is 3, and the consequence level is described as “serious”;

[0147] When the DC ranges from 30 to 100, the corresponding consequence level S is 2, and the consequence level is described as "average";

[0148] When DC is less than 30, the corresponding consequence level S is 1, and the consequence level is described as “mild”;

[0149] S4. Using the indicators determined in step S3, construct a risk matrix expectation table; specifically, including:

[0150] Using the indicators determined in step S3, combined with the risk probability and accident consequences, we can obtain the risk matrix expectation table and the corresponding rockburst prevention and control measures:

[0151] (4-1) When the risk probability is "very high risk" 0.8≤P<1, the consequence level is S=1, and the rock burst risk is 0.8≤R<1, which means "unexpected". The control principle and solution selection should be taken seriously, and precautions and monitoring measures should be taken;

[0152] When the risk probability is "very high risk" 0.8≤P<1, the consequence level is S=2, and the rock burst risk is 1.6≤R<2, indicating "unacceptable", the control principle and solution selection: decision-making and formulation of control and early warning measures are required;

[0153] When the risk probability is "very high risk" 0.8≤P<1, the consequence level is S=3, and the rock burst risk is 2.4≤R<3, indicating "unacceptable", the control principle and solution selection: decision-making and formulation of control and early warning measures are required;

[0154] When the risk probability is "very high risk" 0.8≤P<1, the consequence level is S=4, and the rock burst risk is 3.2≤R<4, it means "rejection". The control principle and solution selection are: stop immediately, rectify, avoid or activate the emergency plan;

[0155] When the risk probability is "very high risk" 0.8≤P<1, the consequence level is S=5, and the rock burst risk is 4≤R<5, it means "rejection". The control principle and solution selection are: stop immediately, rectify, avoid or activate the emergency plan;

[0156] (4-2) When the risk probability is "high risk" 0.6≤P<0.8, the consequence level is S=1, and the rock burst risk is 0.6≤R<0.8, which means "unexpected". The control principle and solution selection should be taken seriously, and precautions and monitoring measures should be taken;

[0157] When the risk probability is "high risk" 0.6≤P<0.8, the consequence level is S=2, and the rock burst risk is 1.2≤R<1.6, indicating "unexpected", the control principle and solution selection should be taken seriously, and prevention and monitoring measures should be taken;

[0158] When the risk probability is "high risk" 0.6≤P<0.8, the consequence level is S=3, and the rock burst risk is 1.8≤R<2.4, indicating "unacceptable", the control principle and solution selection: decision-making and formulation of control and early warning measures are required;

[0159] When the risk probability is "high risk" 0.6≤P<0.8, the consequence level is S=4, and the rock burst risk is 2.4≤R<3.2, it means "unacceptable". Control principles and solution selection: decision-making and formulation of control and early warning measures are required;

[0160] When the risk probability is "high risk" 0.6≤P<0.8, the consequence level is S=5, and the rock burst risk is 3≤R<4, it means "unacceptable". The control principle and solution selection are: stop immediately, rectify, avoid or activate the emergency plan;

[0161] (4-3) When the risk probability is "medium risk" 0.4≤P<0.6, the consequence level is S=1, and the rock burst risk is 0.4≤R<0.6, which means "acceptable". The control principle and solution selection are: focus on and strengthen daily management and maintenance, and strive to reduce risks;

[0162] When the risk probability is "medium risk" 0.4≤P<0.6, the consequence level is S=2, and the rock burst risk is 0.8≤R<1.2, indicating "unexpected", the control principle and solution selection should be taken seriously, and prevention and monitoring measures should be taken;

[0163] When the risk probability is "medium risk" 0.4≤P<0.6, the consequence level is S=3, and the rock burst risk is 1.2≤R<1.8, indicating "unexpected", the control principle and solution selection should be taken seriously, and prevention and monitoring measures should be taken;

[0164] When the risk probability is "medium risk" 0.4≤P<0.6, the consequence level is S=4, and the rock burst risk is 1.6≤R<2.4, indicating "unexpected", the control principle and solution selection should be taken seriously, and prevention and monitoring measures should be taken;

[0165] When the risk probability is "medium risk" 0.4≤P<0.6, the consequence level is S=5, and the rock burst risk is 2≤R<3, indicating "unacceptable", the control principle and solution selection: decision-making and formulation of control and early warning measures are required;

[0166] (4-4) When the risk probability is "low risk" 0.2≤P<0.4, the consequence level is S=1, and the rock burst risk is 0.2≤R<0.4, indicating "negligible", the control principle and solution selection are: only daily management and monitoring are required;

[0167] When the risk probability is "low risk" 0.2≤P<0.4, the consequence level is S=2, and the rock burst risk is 0.4≤R<0.8, which means "acceptable". The control principles and solution selection are: focus on and strengthen daily management and maintenance, and strive to reduce risks;

[0168] When the risk probability is "low risk" 0.2≤P<0.4, the consequence level is S=3, and the rock burst risk is 0.6≤R<1.2, indicating "unexpected", the control principle and solution selection should be taken seriously, and prevention and monitoring measures should be taken;

[0169] When the risk probability is "low risk" 0.2≤P<0.4, the consequence level is S=4, and the rock burst risk is 0.8≤R<1.6, indicating "unexpected", the control principle and solution selection should be taken seriously, and prevention and monitoring measures should be taken;

[0170] When the risk probability is "low risk" 0.2≤P<0.4, the consequence level is S=5, and the rock burst risk is 1≤R<2, indicating "unexpected", the control principle and solution selection should be taken seriously, and prevention and monitoring measures should be taken;

[0171] (4-5) When the risk probability is “no risk” 0≤P<0.2, the consequence level is S=1, and the rock burst risk is 0≤R<0.2, indicating “negligible”, the control principle and solution selection are: only daily management and monitoring are required;

[0172] When the risk probability is "no risk" 0≤P<0.2, the consequence level is S=2, and the rock burst risk is 0.2≤R<0.4, indicating "negligible", the control principle and solution selection are: only daily management and monitoring are required;

[0173] When the risk probability is "no risk" 0≤P<0.2, the consequence level is S=3, and the rock burst risk is 0.4≤R<0.6, it means "acceptable". The control principles and solution selection are: focus on and strengthen daily management and maintenance, and strive to reduce risks;

[0174] When the risk probability is "no risk" 0≤P<0.2, the consequence level is S=4, and the rock burst risk is 0.6≤R<0.8, it means "acceptable". The control principles and solution selection are: focus on and strengthen daily management and maintenance, and strive to reduce risks;

[0175] When the risk probability is "no risk" 0≤P<0.2, the consequence level is S=5, and the rock burst risk is 0.8≤R<1, it means "unexpected". The control principle and solution selection should be taken seriously, and precautions and monitoring measures should be taken;

[0176] S5. Using the risk matrix expectation table constructed in step S4, the risk level of the monitored area is determined by classifying and evaluating the rock mass instability risk areas, and protective measures are taken to complete the early warning process for the monitored area. Specifically, the following steps are included:

[0177] On the basis of determining the risk value of the rock mass instability danger zone, a dynamic monitoring and risk classification model of the high stress rock mass area hazard is constructed, and a feasibility analysis of the evaluation system of the hazard classification effect is carried out.

Claims

1. A multi-parameter, multi-indicator, magnitude classification and joint early warning method based on microseismic monitoring, comprising the following steps: S1. Obtaining microseismic information that could indicate a disaster in an area at risk of rock instability; S2. Analyze and process the precursory microseismic information data obtained in step S1 and select representative source parameters; S3. Using the source parameters selected in step S2, a multi-parameter joint probability distribution function is used to establish a probability reliability estimation model for the possibility of disasters such as rock bursts in dangerous areas, determine the probability of disasters, and construct an accident consequence equivalent index based on the severity of the accident consequences; S4. Using the indicators determined in step S3, based on the risk matrix theory, construct a risk matrix expectation table; S5. Using the risk matrix expectation table constructed in step S4, the risk level of the monitored area is determined by grading and evaluating the rock instability risk areas, and corresponding protective measures are taken to complete the early warning processing of the monitored area.

2. A multi-parameter, multi-index magnitude classification joint early warning method based on microseismic monitoring according to claim 1, characterized in that The step S1 of obtaining precursory microseismic information of a disaster accident in a rock mass instability risk area specifically includes: Through the microseismic monitoring system, microseismic events are analyzed from the perspective of time sequence. Under different mining disturbances, the instability change process of rock mass is analyzed according to the static spatial expansion of rock microcracks. From the perspective of project progress, the change pattern of microseismic events along with excavation activities is analyzed, and the dynamic process of crack incubation, expansion and destruction at different locations of rock mass is analyzed.

3. A multi-parameter, multi-index magnitude classification joint early warning method based on microseismic monitoring according to claim 2, characterized in that Step S2, analyzing and processing the precursory microseismic information data obtained in step S1 to select representative source parameters, specifically includes: Common microseismic parameters that are closely related to microfracture activity and can reflect the rockburst incubation patterns in the monitored area are selected, including: Cumulative number of events N (number), cumulative logarithm of released energy lgE (J), cumulative logarithm of apparent volume lgV (m 3 ).

4. A multi-parameter, multi-index magnitude classification joint early warning method based on microseismic monitoring according to claim 3, characterized in that In step S3, the earthquake source parameters selected in step S2 are used to establish a probability reliability estimation model for the possibility of disaster accidents such as rock bursts in dangerous areas through a multi-parameter joint probability distribution function, determine the probability of disaster accidents, and construct an accident consequence equivalent index based on the severity of the accident consequences, specifically including: (3-1) Joint probability distribution function of multi-parameter variables: The non-parametric kernel density estimation method is used to estimate the kernel density function of the earthquake source parameters, and the probability density functions of the three microseismic monitoring parameters of rock burst disasters are determined respectively. The calculation formula is as follows: Among them, f N (n) represents the probability density function corresponding to the cumulative number of events; f E (e) represents the probability density function corresponding to the logarithm of the cumulative released energy; f V (v) represents the probability density function corresponding to the logarithm of the cumulative apparent volume; K(·) represents the kernel function; n represents the cumulative number of events; e represents the cumulative released energy; v represents the cumulative apparent volume; For the calculated f N (n), f E (e), f V (v) Perform integration processing to obtain the corresponding marginal cumulative distribution function F N (n), F E (e), F V (v); The "rockburst disaster risk" is defined as the number of microseismic events, the cumulative energy released by microseismic events, and the cumulative apparent volume of microseismic events, which are combined to construct a joint distribution Copula function relationship. The calculation formula is as follows: C θ (N,E)=P(N≤n,lgE≤lge)=C θ (F N (n),F E (e)) C θ (N,V)=P(N≤n,lgE≤lgv)=C θ (F N (n),F V (v)) C θ (E,V)=P(lgE≤lge,lgV≤lgv)=C θ (F E (e),F V (v)) Among them, C θ (·) represents the Copula function of the microseismic parameters; θ represents the unknown coefficient; Based on the Copula function, a joint probability distribution function of multiple parameter variables is constructed for the uncertainty of the selected microseismic parameters to express the nonlinear relationship between the hazard probability of disaster occurrence and the microseismic parameters. The following formula is used to express the joint distribution function of rockburst hazard based on the Copula function: C Gu (u,v)=exp(-[(-lnu) 1.19125 +(-lnv) 1.19125 ] 1 / 1.19125 ) C Gu (u,w)=exp(-[(-lnu) 1.8934 +(-lnw) 1.8934 ] 1 / 1.8934 ) Among them, C Gu (u, v) represents the two-dimensional joint distribution Copula function of the number of microseismic events and the logarithm of the cumulative energy released by microseismic events, which is established by selecting the Gumbel Copula function; C Gu (u,w) represents the two-dimensional joint distribution Copula function of the number of microseismic events and the logarithm of the microseismic cumulative apparent volume established by the Gumbel Copula function; C t (v,w) represents the two-dimensional joint distribution Copula function of the logarithm of the microseismic cumulative released energy and the logarithm of the microseismic cumulative apparent volume established by selecting the t-Copula function; u represents the cumulative probability of the marginal distribution function corresponding to the number of microseismic events, and the calculation formula is as follows: u=F N (n) v represents the cumulative probability of the marginal distribution function corresponding to the logarithm of the cumulative energy released by microseismic, and the calculation formula is as follows: v=F E (e) w represents the cumulative probability of the marginal distribution function corresponding to the logarithm of the cumulative apparent volume of microseismic events, and the calculation formula is as follows: w=F V (v) k represents the degree of freedom; t represents the t distribution; Expressed as the inverse function of the univariate t distribution with k degrees of freedom; When studying rockburst risk, we usually focus on the magnitude of rockburst risk when the number of microseismic events, the cumulative energy released by microseismic events, and the apparent volume of microseismic events exceeds a certain value. The following formula is used to calculate the rockburst risk probability: P(N>n,E>lge)=1-F N (n)-F E (e)+F N,E (n,e)=1-F N (n)-F E (e)+C Gu (u,v)P(N>n,V>lgv)=1-F N (n)-F V (v)+F N,V (n,v)=1-F N (n)-F V (v)+C Gu (u,w) P(E>e,V>lgv)=1-F E (e)-F V (v)+F E,V (e,v)=1-F E (e)-F V (in)+C t (v,w) Among them, P(N>n, E>lge) represents the disaster probability when the logarithm of microseismic events and the cumulative energy released by microseisms exceeds a certain value; P(N>n, V>lgv) represents the disaster probability when the logarithm of microseismic events and the cumulative apparent volume of microseisms exceed a certain value; P(E>e, V>lgv) represents the disaster probability when the logarithm of the cumulative energy released by microseisms and the logarithm of the cumulative apparent volume of microseisms exceed a certain value; (3-2) Classification of rock burst hazard levels in the monitoring area: Based on the rockburst probability obtained in step (3-1), the rockburst hazard level in the monitoring area is divided into the following five levels according to the rockburst level: When the probability of rock burst disaster is 0≤P<0.2, the rock burst level is "no danger zone"; When the probability of rock burst disaster is 0.2≤P<0.4, the rock burst level is "low risk zone"; When the probability of rock burst disaster is 0.4≤P<0.6, the rock burst level is "medium danger zone"; When the probability of rock burst disaster is 0.6≤P<0.8, the rock burst level is "high risk zone"; When the probability of rock burst disaster is 0.8≤P<1, the rock burst level is "extremely high risk zone"; (3-3) Determine the accident consequence equivalent index: The severity of the consequences of rock burst disasters was quantitatively evaluated from three aspects: casualties, roadway damage, and construction delay. The following formula was used to establish the accident consequence equivalent index: S1=k1D1+k2D2+k3D3 S2=br DC=S1+S2+S3 Among them, S1 represents the loss of personnel injuries; k1 represents the comprehensive property loss caused by one death based on the current economic situation; k2 represents the comprehensive property loss caused by one serious injury based on the current economic situation; k3 represents the comprehensive property loss caused by one minor injury based on the current economic situation; D1 represents the number of deaths; D2 represents the number of serious injuries; D3 represents the number of minor injuries; S2 represents the loss due to roadway damage; b represents the loss due to roadway damage per unit distance selected based on the project scale; r represents the distance to the damaged roadway; S3 represents the loss due to construction delay; DC represents the total equivalent value of the accident, in ten thousand yuan; When DC>1000, the corresponding consequence level S is 5, and the consequence level is described as "catastrophic"; When the DC range is 300-1000, the corresponding consequence level S is 4, and the consequence level is described as "serious"; When the DC range is 100-300, the corresponding consequence level S is 3, and the consequence level is described as "serious"; When the DC range is 30-100, the corresponding consequence level S is 2, and the consequence level is described as "average"; When DC is less than 30, the corresponding consequence level S is 1, and the consequence level is described as "mild".

5. A multi-parameter, multi-index magnitude classification joint early warning method based on microseismic monitoring according to claim 4, characterized in that Step S4 uses the indicators determined in step S3 to construct a risk matrix expectation table, which specifically includes: Using the indicators determined in step S3, combined with the risk probability and accident consequences, we can obtain the risk matrix expectation table and the corresponding rockburst prevention and control measures: (4-1) When the risk probability is "very high risk" 0.8≤P<1, the consequence level is S=1, and the rock burst risk is 0.8≤R<1, indicating "unexpected", the control principle and solution selection should be taken seriously, and precautions and monitoring measures should be taken; When the risk probability is "very high risk" 0.8≤P<1, the consequence level is S=2, and the rock burst risk is 1.6≤R<2, indicating "unacceptable", the control principle and solution selection: decision-making and formulation of control and early warning measures are required; When the risk probability is "very high risk" 0.8≤P<1, the consequence level is S=3, and the rock burst risk is 2.4≤R<3, indicating "unacceptable", the control principle and solution selection: decision-making and formulation of control and early warning measures are required; When the risk probability is "very high risk" (0.8≤P<1), the consequence level is S=4, and the rock burst risk is 3.2≤R<4, it means "rejection". The control principle and solution selection are: stop immediately, rectify, avoid or activate the emergency plan; When the risk probability is "very high risk" (0.8≤P<1), the consequence level is S=5, and the rock burst risk is 4≤R<5, it means "rejection". The control principle and solution selection are: stop immediately, rectify, avoid or activate the emergency plan; (4-2) When the risk probability is "high risk" 0.6≤P<0.8, the consequence level is S=1, and the rock burst risk is 0.6≤R<0.8, indicating "unexpected", the control principle and solution selection should be taken seriously, and prevention and monitoring measures should be taken; When the risk probability is "high risk" (0.6≤P<0.8), the consequence level is S=2, and the rock burst risk is 1.2≤R<1.6, indicating "unexpected", the control principle and solution selection should be taken seriously, and precautions and monitoring measures should be taken; When the risk probability is "high risk" (0.6≤P<0.8), the consequence level is S=3, and the rock burst risk is 1.8≤R<2.4, indicating "unacceptable", the control principle and solution selection: decision-making and formulation of control and early warning measures are required; When the risk probability is "high risk" (0.6≤P<0.8), the consequence level is S=4, and the rock burst risk is 2.4≤R<3.2, it means "unacceptable". Control principles and solution selection: decision-making and formulation of control and early warning measures are required; When the risk probability is "high risk" (0.6≤P<0.8), the consequence level is S=5, and the rock burst risk is 3≤R<4, it means "unacceptable". The control principle and solution selection are: stop immediately, rectify, avoid or activate the emergency plan; (4-3) When the risk probability is "medium risk" 0.4≤P<0.6, the consequence level is S=1, and the rock burst risk is 0.4≤R<0.6, indicating "acceptable". Control principles and solution selection: focus on and strengthen daily management and maintenance, and strive to reduce risks; When the risk probability is "medium risk" (0.4≤P<0.6), the consequence level is S=2, and the rock burst risk is 0.8≤R<1.2, indicating "unexpected", the control principle and solution selection should be taken seriously, and precautions and monitoring measures should be taken; When the risk probability is "medium risk" (0.4≤P<0.6), the consequence level is S=3, and the rock burst risk is 1.2≤R<1.8, indicating "unexpected", the control principle and solution selection should be taken seriously, and precautions and monitoring measures should be taken; When the risk probability is "medium risk" (0.4≤P<0.6), the consequence level is S=4, and the rock burst risk is 1.6≤R<2.4, indicating "unexpected", the control principle and solution selection should be taken seriously, and precautions and monitoring measures should be taken; When the risk probability is "medium risk" (0.4≤P<0.6), the consequence level is S=5, and the rock burst risk is 2≤R<3, indicating "unacceptable", the control principle and solution selection: decision-making and formulation of control and early warning measures are required; (4-4) When the risk probability is "low risk" 0.2≤P<0.4, the consequence level is S=1, and the rock burst risk is 0.2≤R<0.4, indicating "negligible", the control principle and solution selection are: only daily management and monitoring are required; When the risk probability is "low risk" (0.2≤P<0.4), the consequence level is S=2, and the rock burst risk is 0.4≤R<0.8, indicating "acceptable", the control principle and solution selection are: focus on and strengthen daily management and maintenance, and strive to reduce risks; When the risk probability is "low risk" (0.2≤P<0.4), the consequence level is S=3, and the rock burst risk is 0.6≤R<1.2, indicating "unexpected", the control principle and solution selection should be taken seriously, and precautions and monitoring measures should be taken; When the risk probability is "low risk" (0.2≤P<0.4), the consequence level is S=4, and the rock burst risk is 0.8≤R<1.6, indicating "unexpected", the control principle and solution selection should be taken seriously, and precautions and monitoring measures should be taken; When the risk probability is "low risk" (0.2≤P<0.4), the consequence level is S=5, and the rock burst risk is 1≤R<2, indicating "unexpected", the control principle and solution selection should be taken seriously, and precautions and monitoring measures should be taken; (4-5) When the risk probability is "no risk" 0≤P<0.2, the consequence level is S=1, and the rock burst risk is 0≤R<0.2, indicating "negligible", the control principle and solution selection are: only daily management and monitoring are required; When the risk probability is "no risk" 0≤P<0.2, the consequence level is S=2, and the rock burst risk is 0.2≤R<0.4, indicating "negligible", the control principle and solution selection are: only daily management and monitoring are required; When the risk probability is "no risk" (0≤P<0.2), the consequence level is S=3, and the rock burst risk is 0.4≤R<0.6, it is considered "acceptable". The control principle and solution selection are: focus on and strengthen daily management and maintenance, and strive to reduce risks; When the risk probability is "no risk" (0≤P<0.2), the consequence level is S=4, and the rock burst risk is 0.6≤R<0.8, it means "acceptable". The control principle and solution selection are: focus on and strengthen daily management and maintenance, and strive to reduce risks; When the risk probability is "no risk" (0≤P<0.2), the consequence level is S=5, and the rockburst risk is 0.8≤R<1, indicating "unexpected", the control principles and scheme selection should be taken seriously, and precautions and monitoring measures should be taken.

6. A multi-parameter, multi-index magnitude classification joint early warning method based on microseismic monitoring according to claim 5, characterized in that The risk matrix expectation table constructed in step S4 described in step S5 is used to classify and evaluate the rock mass instability risk areas, determine the risk level of the monitored area, take protective measures, and complete the early warning processing of the monitored area, specifically including: On the basis of determining the risk value of the rock mass instability danger zone, a dynamic monitoring and risk classification model of the high stress rock mass area hazard is constructed, and a feasibility analysis of the evaluation system of the hazard classification effect is carried out.

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