Method and system for predicting and compensating for estimated time of arrival of an incoming flight
By monitoring flight data updates and flight simulation information, flight simulation extrapolation and error compensation correction are performed, solving the real-time and accuracy problems of traditional flight estimated arrival time prediction. This enables real-time response and high-precision prediction of flight changes during flight.
Patent Information
- Authority / Receiving Office
- CN · China
- Patent Type
- Patents(China)
- Current Assignee / Owner
- CHENGDU CIVIL AVIATION AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SCI & TECH
- Filing Date
- 2023-12-11
- Publication Date
- 2026-07-03
AI Technical Summary
Traditional methods for predicting estimated flight arrival times cannot respond in real time to dynamic changes during flight, have insufficient predictive capabilities when historical data is lacking, and have low accuracy, especially when airport operations are complex.
By monitoring flight data and updating flight simulation information based on the basic information database, flight simulation is performed, error results are calculated and compensated, and the prediction error is optimized using grayscale models and mean prediction methods, and the estimated arrival time is adjusted in real time.
It enables real-time response to flight changes during flight, improves the accuracy and coverage of forecast results, and ensures accurate forecasts for all flights, especially maintaining high precision under the influence of weather and air traffic control.
Smart Images
Figure CN117672019B_ABST
Abstract
Description
Technical Field
[0001] This invention relates to the field of flight time prediction technology, specifically to a method and system for predicting and compensating for the estimated arrival time of inbound flights. Background Technology
[0002] Traditional methods for estimating flight arrival times mostly rely on historical flight data. This involves filtering historical flight data for various flights on the same route, aircraft type, and airline, calculating the flight time for each flight, and then aggregating and averaging this data to obtain a baseline flight time for each route, aircraft type, and airline. The estimated arrival time of the desired flight is then calculated as: Actual departure time of the current flight + Baseline flight time. Figure 1 As shown. Traditional prediction methods mainly have the following shortcomings:
[0003] (1) It is impossible to respond in real time to the changes in flight dynamics that need to be predicted. During the flight, flights are affected by various subjective and objective factors such as weather, air traffic control, and their own condition, and flight dynamics may change at any time, such as direct flight, circling and waiting, or detouring. Especially during the approach phase, it is necessary to determine the flight procedure and landing runway to be adopted in real time based on the airport's operation. Traditional prediction methods cannot respond actively after changes in flight plans or routes, resulting in the original prediction results not matching the actual situation.
[0004] (2) The ability to predict flights lacking historical data is weak. Since traditional prediction methods rely heavily on historical flight statistics, if the aircraft type, planned route or airline of the flight does not match the historical results, or if the historical data lacks universality, the "flight time benchmark" will be inaccurate, which will affect the prediction of the expected arrival time of the current flight.
[0005] (3) The accuracy of the prediction results is lacking. Traditional methods generally only use the method of summarizing and averaging to calculate flight time, which lacks consideration of meteorological conditions, air traffic control and other airspace user factors at different time periods. Moreover, the flight data source is singular, and only flight information matching the destination airport of the flight schedule can be received. It is easy to miss or erroneously divert or return flights. In addition, information acquisition is delayed, and the prediction results are often not very accurate, especially unable to give a relatively accurate estimated arrival time 30 minutes before landing. Summary of the Invention
[0006] To address the shortcomings of existing technologies, this invention provides a method and system for predicting and compensating for the estimated arrival time of inbound flights.
[0007] Firstly, a method for predicting and compensating for the estimated arrival time of inbound flights includes:
[0008] Monitor flight data, obtain flight plan changes based on the basic information database, and update flight simulation information accordingly;
[0009] Based on the flight simulation information, a flight simulation is performed on the target flight, and the initial estimated arrival time of the target flight is predicted.
[0010] Obtain the actual landing time of the target flight and the initial estimated arrival time predicted 30 minutes before landing, calculate the error results, classify and summarize the error results based on the approach procedure, and form an error sequence;
[0011] The error sequence is compensated and corrected to obtain the prediction error, and the final predicted landing time of subsequent inbound flights is obtained based on the prediction error.
[0012] Furthermore, the monitoring of flight data, based on the flight data and a basic information database, retrieves flight plan changes and updates flight simulation information, specifically as follows:
[0013] Read the basic information database, which includes, but is not limited to, the fixed point database, the air route database, the flight procedure database, and the aircraft performance database;
[0014] Real-time monitoring of flight data, including flight plans and flight track data;
[0015] When a new flight plan is detected, a flight simulation target flight is created based on the basic information database, and the flight number and secondary code are matched with radar data to obtain the current target flight's trajectory data in order to create new flight simulation information.
[0016] When a change in existing flight schedule data is detected, the basic information database and the current target flight's trajectory data are updated to calibrate the existing flight simulation information.
[0017] The trajectory data of the target flight includes, but is not limited to, its position, altitude, heading, and ground speed.
[0018] Furthermore, the step of performing flight simulation analysis on the target flight based on the flight simulation information and predicting the initial estimated arrival time of the target flight specifically involves:
[0019] Based on the simulation information and an aerodynamic model, each target flight in the simulation queue will be simulated from its current position according to the set route and flight procedure until it lands.
[0020] Record the start time and total flight time of the flight simulation, and preliminarily predict the initial estimated arrival time of the target flight based on the start time and total flight time. The calculation formula is as follows:
[0021] CTA1=T0+ΔT
[0022] Where CTA1 is the initial estimated arrival time of the target flight, T0 is the start time of the flight simulation, and ΔT is the total flight time of the flight simulation.
[0023] Furthermore, the process of obtaining the actual landing time of the target flight and the predicted initial estimated arrival time 30 minutes before landing, calculating the error result, and classifying and summarizing the error result based on the arrival procedure to form an error sequence is as follows:
[0024] Record the actual landing time of the target flight in real time and obtain the initial estimated arrival time predicted 30 minutes before the target flight lands;
[0025] The error between the actual landing time and the initial estimated arrival time 30 minutes before landing of the target flight is calculated using the following formula:
[0026] P = T ATA -CTA1 ATA-30
[0027] Where P is the error result, T ATA For the actual landing time of the target flight, CTA1 ATA-30 The initial estimated arrival time is predicted 30 minutes before the target flight lands.
[0028] Based on the aforementioned basic database, the arrival procedures of the target flights are obtained, and the error results are classified and summarized according to the arrival procedures of each target flight, so as to form an error sequence for the error results corresponding to the target flights with the same arrival procedures.
[0029] Furthermore, the step of compensating and correcting the error sequence to obtain the prediction error, and obtaining the final predicted landing time of subsequent inbound flights based on the prediction error, specifically involves:
[0030] When any of the error sequences contains three or more error results, outlier detection is performed on the error sequences to determine whether there is a single outlier in the error sequences.
[0031] If a single outlier exists, the outlier is removed from the error sequence, and the prediction error is calculated using the mean prediction method.
[0032] If no single outlier exists, the prediction error is calculated based on the grayscale model according to the error sequence.
[0033] The final predicted landing time of subsequent inbound flights is calculated based on the prediction error.
[0034] Furthermore, the outlier detection of the error sequence specifically involves:
[0035] Calculate the mean ± variance range of the error sequence and use it as the threshold range;
[0036] Determine whether all error results in the error sequence are within the threshold range;
[0037] If not, then there is a single outlier in the error sequence;
[0038] If so, then there is no single outlier in the error sequence.
[0039] Furthermore, the step of calculating the prediction error based on the grayscale model according to the error sequence specifically involves:
[0040] Determine whether all error results in the error sequence meet the coverage range limit of the grayscale model;
[0041] If the conditions are met, the compensated and corrected prediction error is calculated based on the grayscale model according to the error sequence.
[0042] If the error does not meet the requirement, the error result is linearly shifted until it meets the coverage range limit.
[0043] Furthermore, the step of calculating the final predicted landing time of subsequent inbound flights based on the prediction error specifically involves:
[0044] Obtain the initial estimated arrival time of the subsequent inbound flights;
[0045] The preceding error sequence is determined based on the arrival procedure of the subsequent arriving flights, and the prediction error corresponding to the preceding error sequence is obtained.
[0046] Based on the prediction error and the initial estimated arrival time of subsequent arriving flights, the final predicted landing time of subsequent arriving flights is calculated using the following formula:
[0047]
[0048] Among them, CTA2 n For the final predicted landing time of subsequent inbound flights, T0 n +ΔT n This is the initial estimated arrival time for subsequent inbound flights. This represents the prediction error corresponding to the preceding error sequence.
[0049] Furthermore, it also includes:
[0050] The system receives manually input data and corrects and calibrates relevant information based on the manually input data to intervene in flight status. The relevant information includes, but is not limited to, flight data, flight simulation information, and a basic database.
[0051] In a second aspect, a prediction and compensation correction system for the estimated arrival time of inbound flights is provided, the system being applied to the method described in the first aspect, and including a route prediction and planning module, a flight simulation module, and a compensation correction module;
[0052] The route prediction and planning module is used to: monitor flight data, obtain flight plan changes based on the basic information database according to the flight data, and update flight simulation information;
[0053] The flight simulation module is used to: perform flight simulation and extrapolation on the target flight based on the flight simulation information, and predict the initial estimated arrival time of the target flight;
[0054] The compensation and correction module is used to: obtain the actual landing time of the target flight and the initial estimated arrival time predicted 30 minutes before landing, calculate the error result, classify and summarize the error result based on the approach procedure, and form an error sequence;
[0055] The compensation and correction module is also used to: compensate and correct the error sequence to obtain the prediction error, and obtain the final predicted landing time of subsequent inbound flights based on the prediction error.
[0056] The beneficial effects of this invention are reflected in: real-time monitoring of flight data, performing flight simulation based on the monitored data to initially predict the estimated arrival time, calculating the error result based on the actual landing time and the predicted arrival time 30 minutes before landing, classifying and summarizing the results based on the arrival procedure to form an error sequence, and then performing compensation and correction based on the error sequence to obtain the final predicted landing time of subsequent arriving flights, thus completing the prediction and compensation correction of the estimated arrival time of arriving flights. It has the following advantages:
[0057] (1) It can predict all flights within the radar detection range and fully grasp the situation of inbound flights at the airport. It can ensure that no flight is missed, regardless of whether the target is a go-around, return, or diversion.
[0058] (2) Any changes to the flight during flight tracking can be detected synchronously in real time through changes in plans and flight paths, so as to correct and calculate the estimated arrival time and update the prediction results.
[0059] (3) Flight simulation modeling covers hundreds of common civil aircraft models and can be configured with corresponding approach procedures, runway schemes and runway schemes for destination airports to ensure accurate and controllable flight and landing process simulation.
[0060] (4) The calculation results of the flight simulation are compared with the actual landing situation in real time, and the calculation results are corrected by a compensation feedback mechanism to avoid the systemic impact of weather, large-scale delays and centralized control, and greatly improve the accuracy of the prediction results. Attached Figure Description
[0061] To more clearly illustrate the specific embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the accompanying drawings used in the description of the specific embodiments or the prior art will be briefly introduced below. In all the drawings, similar elements or parts are generally identified by similar reference numerals. In the drawings, the elements or parts are not necessarily drawn to scale.
[0062] Figure 1 The present invention provides a traditional method for estimating the estimated arrival time of flights.
[0063] Figure 2 A flowchart illustrating a method for predicting and compensating for the estimated arrival time of an inbound flight, provided in Embodiment 1 of the present invention;
[0064] Figure 3 This is a logical diagram illustrating a method for predicting and compensating for the estimated arrival time of an inbound flight, as provided in Embodiment 1 of the present invention.
[0065] Figure 4 This is a block diagram of a prediction and compensation correction system for the estimated arrival time of an inbound flight provided in Embodiment 2 of the present invention;
[0066] Figure 5 This is a schematic diagram of the framework of a prediction and compensation correction system for the estimated arrival time of an inbound flight provided in Embodiment 2 of the present invention. Detailed Implementation
[0067] The embodiments of the technical solution of the present invention will now be described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings. These embodiments are merely illustrative of the technical solution of the present invention and are therefore intended to limit the scope of protection of the present invention.
[0068] It should be noted that, unless otherwise stated, the technical or scientific terms used in this application should have the ordinary meaning as understood by one of ordinary skill in the art to which this invention pertains.
[0069] Example 1
[0070] like Figure 2 and Figure 3 As shown, a method for predicting and compensating for the estimated arrival time of inbound flights includes the following steps:
[0071] S1: Monitor flight data, obtain flight plan changes based on the basic information database according to the flight data, and update flight simulation information;
[0072] Specifically, the system reads various basic information databases in real time, including but not limited to fixed-point databases, route databases, flight procedure databases, and aircraft performance databases. Simultaneously, it monitors flight data in real time, including flight plans and track data. Each flight plan has a unique identifier (GUID) that is matched and associated with the track data.
[0073] When a new flight plan is detected, a new target flight is created based on the received data and added to the simulation queue. The real-time received data typically includes fields such as flight number, secondary code, aircraft type, GUID, complete route, and flight procedure. The flight number and secondary code are matched with radar data to obtain the current target flight's track data, in order to create new flight simulation information.
[0074] When a change in existing flight schedule data is detected, the basic information database and the original target flight's trajectory data are updated to calibrate the existing flight simulation information. Preferably, the change in flight schedule data includes, but is not limited to, a change in the target flight's flight plan (such as a rerouting) or the receipt of the target flight's trajectory data for the next cycle.
[0075] The target flight's trajectory data includes, but is not limited to, its location latitude and longitude, standard sea pressure altitude, current heading, and ground speed.
[0076] S2: Based on the flight simulation information, perform flight simulation and predict the initial estimated arrival time of the target flight;
[0077] Specifically, based on simulation information and an aerodynamic model, each target flight in the simulation queue starts from its current position and follows a set route and flight procedure to conduct flight simulation exercises until landing. Preferably, the simulation process includes:
[0078] (1) Based on the aerodynamic model established for each target flight, guide the target flights to navigate to the next waypoint in the route in sequence;
[0079] (2) In the WGS-84 coordinate system, the original position of the target flight is recorded as... Within a differential time interval dt, the target flight, constrained by its flight envelope, will adjust its nose direction, indicated airspeed, and rate of climb and descent; its combined velocity is denoted as... The new position after displacement can be represented as
[0080] (3) When the new position of the target flight coincides with or crosses the landing runway's set landing point after a certain differential time dt, it is determined that the target flight has landed, and the total flight time experienced is ΔT=∑dt.
[0081] Record the start time T0 and total flight time ΔT of the flight simulation. The simulation process typically takes less than 1 second, which can be ignored. Therefore, the initial estimated arrival time of the target flight is initially predicted as follows:
[0082] CTA1=T0+ΔT (1)
[0083] In the formula, CTA1 is the initial estimated arrival time of the target flight, T0 is the start time of the flight simulation, and ΔT is the total flight time of the flight simulation.
[0084] It should be noted that a new flight simulation is activated when there is a new flight plan or when an existing flight plan is changed. When there is no new flight plan and the existing flight plan has not been changed, a new flight simulation is activated after a waiting interval in the simulation queue. The interval is determined by the distance between the target flight and the airport. The farther the distance, the longer the interval, and vice versa. It is generally between 10 and 50 seconds, and the specific value can be set according to the actual situation.
[0085] S3: Obtain the actual landing time of the target flight and the initial estimated arrival time predicted 30 minutes before landing, calculate the error results, classify and summarize the error results based on the arrival procedure, and form an error sequence;
[0086] Specifically, the actual landing time T of the target flight is recorded in real time. ATA And obtain the initial estimated arrival time (CTA1) of the target flight 30 minutes before landing. ATA-30 The actual landing time was compared with the initial estimated arrival time 30 minutes before landing, and the error result was recorded as follows:
[0087] P = T ATA -CTA1 ATA-30 (2)
[0088] In the formula, P represents the error result, and T represents the error value. ATA For the actual landing time of the target flight, CTA1 ATA-30 The initial estimated arrival time is predicted 30 minutes before the target flight lands.
[0089] For example: the actual landing time T of a target flight ATA The initial estimated arrival time (CTA1) was 14:25, 30 minutes before landing (i.e., 13:55), based on flight simulation. ATA-30If the ratio is 14:31, then the error result P = T ATA -CTA1 ATA-30 =14:25-14:31=-6.
[0090] Furthermore, based on the basic database, the arrival procedures of the target flights are obtained. The error results P are then categorized and summarized according to the arrival procedure of each target flight, forming an error sequence for the target flights with the same arrival procedure. For example, the error results P1, P2, P3... corresponding to target flights F1, F2, F3... with the same arrival procedure constitute an error sequence. This error sequence is ordered in natural chronological order, i.e., arranged according to the order of the corresponding flights F1, F2, F3...
[0091] S4: Compensate and correct the error sequence to obtain the prediction error, and obtain the final predicted landing time of subsequent inbound flights based on the prediction error;
[0092] Specifically, when any of the aforementioned error sequences contains three or more error results, a compensation and correction mechanism is activated. The mean ± variance range of the error sequence is calculated and used as a threshold range. It is then determined whether all error results in the error sequence are within the corresponding threshold range. If not, it indicates that there is a single outlier in the error sequence; if so, it indicates that there is no single outlier in the error sequence.
[0093] Furthermore, if a single outlier exists in the error sequence, that outlier is removed from the error sequence, and the prediction error is calculated using the mean prediction method based on the removed error sequence. The calculation formula is as follows:
[0094]
[0095] In the formula, To compensate for the corrected prediction error, P norm This is the error sequence after removing a single outlier.
[0096] If there is no single outlier in the error sequence, then determine whether all error results in the error sequence meet the coverage interval limit of the grayscale model. The grayscale model coverage interval limit refers to the error results being exponentially growing data, and satisfying the following conditions:
[0097]
[0098] in,
[0099]
[0100]
[0101] In the formula, q represents the number of error results, x(k) represents the number of error result samples, λ(k) represents the column order ratio, and Θ represents the accommodative coverage interval.
[0102] If the error sequence meets the above constraints, then the compensated and corrected prediction error is calculated based on the grayscale model according to the error sequence. If the error sequence does not meet the above restrictions, then all error results in the error sequence will be linearly shifted until they meet the gray range restrictions of the gray model.
[0103] Furthermore, regarding subsequent inbound flights F n Flight simulations were conducted, and then the initial estimated arrival time (CTA1) of subsequent inbound flights was obtained using formula (1). n =T0 n +ΔT n .
[0104] Confirming the connection with subsequent inbound flights F n Precursor error sequence P of the same entry procedure n-1 ,P n-2 ,P n-3 ...and obtain the result based on the preceding error sequence P n-1 ,P n-2 ,P n-3 ...the calculated prediction error Based on prediction error and subsequent arriving flights F n Initial estimated arrival time CTA1 n The final predicted landing time for subsequent inbound flights is calculated using the following formula:
[0105]
[0106] In the formula, CTA2 n For the final predicted landing time of subsequent inbound flights, T0 n +ΔT n This is the initial estimated arrival time for subsequent inbound flights, i.e., CTA1. n .
[0107] Preferably, when inbound flight F n The actual error result P was generated after landing. n Then, based on the error result P n A new error sequence is constructed, and then the next prediction error is calculated based on the new error sequence. Prediction error This applies to all subsequent flights that have not yet landed under the same arrival procedure, i.e.:
[0108]
[0109] In the formula, m represents the number of inbound flights F. n The m-th flight that has not yet landed following the same arrival procedure, CTA2 n+m For the final predicted landing time of flights that have not yet landed, T0 n+m +ΔT n+m The initial estimated arrival time for flights that have not yet landed, i.e., CTA1 n+m .
[0110] Furthermore, the steps also include: receiving manually input data, correcting and calibrating relevant information such as flight data, flight simulation information, and basic databases based on the manually input data, thereby enabling intervention in the status of the target flight at any time.
[0111] Example 2
[0112] like Figure 4 and Figure 5 As shown, a prediction and compensation correction system for the estimated arrival time of inbound flights is provided. The system is applied to the method described in Embodiment 1 and includes a route prediction and planning module, a flight simulation module, and a compensation correction module.
[0113] The route prediction and planning module is used to: monitor flight data, obtain flight plan changes based on the basic information database according to the flight data, and update flight simulation information;
[0114] The flight simulation module is used to: perform flight simulation and extrapolation on the target flight based on the flight simulation information, and predict the initial estimated arrival time of the target flight;
[0115] The compensation and correction module is used to: obtain the actual landing time of the target flight and the initial estimated arrival time predicted 30 minutes before landing, calculate the error result, classify and summarize the error result based on the approach procedure, and form an error sequence;
[0116] The compensation and correction module is also used to: compensate and correct the error sequence to obtain the prediction error, and obtain the final predicted landing time of subsequent inbound flights based on the prediction error.
[0117] Furthermore, it also includes a manual intervention module, used to: receive manually input data, and correct and calibrate relevant information based on the manually input data to intervene in the flight status. The relevant information includes, but is not limited to, flight data, flight simulation information, and a basic database.
[0118] It should be noted that for a more detailed workflow of a prediction and compensation correction system for the estimated arrival time of inbound flights, please refer to the aforementioned method implementation section, which will not be repeated here.
[0119] This invention monitors flight data in real time, performs flight simulations based on the monitored data to initially predict the estimated arrival time, calculates the error based on the actual landing time and the predicted arrival time 30 minutes before landing, and categorizes and summarizes the results to form an error sequence based on the arrival procedure. Then, compensation and correction are performed based on the error sequence to obtain the final predicted landing time for subsequent arriving flights, thus completing the prediction and compensation correction of the estimated arrival time of arriving flights. It has the following advantages:
[0120] (1) It can predict all flights within the radar detection range and fully grasp the situation of inbound flights at the airport. It can ensure that no flight is missed, regardless of whether the target is a go-around, return, or diversion.
[0121] (2) Any changes to the flight during flight tracking can be detected synchronously in real time through changes in plans and flight paths, so as to correct and calculate the estimated arrival time and update the prediction results.
[0122] (3) Flight simulation modeling covers hundreds of common civil aircraft models and can be configured with corresponding approach procedures, runway schemes and runway schemes for destination airports to ensure accurate and controllable flight and landing process simulation.
[0123] (4) The calculation results of the flight simulation are compared with the actual landing situation in real time, and the calculation results are corrected by a compensation feedback mechanism to avoid the systemic impact of weather, large-scale delays and centralized control, and greatly improve the accuracy of the prediction results.
[0124] Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention, and not to limit them. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the foregoing embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that modifications can still be made to the technical solutions described in the foregoing embodiments, or equivalent substitutions can be made to some or all of the technical features therein. Such modifications or substitutions do not cause the essence of the corresponding technical solutions to deviate from the scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention, and they should all be covered within the scope of the claims and specification of the present invention.
Claims
1. A method for predicting and compensating for the estimated arrival time of inbound flights, characterized in that, include: Monitor flight data, obtain flight plan changes based on the basic information database, and update flight simulation information accordingly; Based on the flight simulation information, a flight simulation is performed on the target flight, and the initial estimated arrival time of the target flight is predicted. Obtain the actual landing time of the target flight and the initial estimated arrival time predicted 30 minutes before landing, calculate the error results, classify and summarize the error results based on the approach procedure, and form an error sequence; The error sequence is compensated and corrected to obtain the prediction error, and the final predicted landing time of subsequent inbound flights is obtained based on the prediction error. The process of compensating and correcting the error sequence to obtain the prediction error, and then using the prediction error to obtain the final predicted landing time of subsequent inbound flights, specifically involves: When any of the error sequences contains three or more error results, outlier detection is performed on the error sequences to determine whether there is a single outlier in the error sequences. If a single outlier exists, the outlier is removed from the error sequence, and the prediction error is calculated using the mean prediction method. If no single outlier exists, the prediction error is calculated based on the grayscale model according to the error sequence. The final predicted landing time of subsequent inbound flights is calculated based on the prediction error. The outlier detection of the error sequence specifically involves: Calculate the mean ± variance range of the error sequence and use it as the threshold range; Determine whether all error results in the error sequence are within the threshold range; If not, then there is a single outlier in the error sequence; If so, then there is no single outlier in the error sequence; The calculation of the final predicted landing time of subsequent inbound flights based on the prediction error is specifically as follows: Obtain the initial estimated arrival time of the subsequent inbound flights; The preceding error sequence is determined based on the arrival procedure of the subsequent arriving flights, and the prediction error corresponding to the preceding error sequence is obtained. Based on the prediction error and the initial estimated arrival time of subsequent arriving flights, the final predicted landing time of subsequent arriving flights is calculated using the following formula: in, This is the final predicted landing time for subsequent inbound flights. This is the initial estimated arrival time for subsequent inbound flights. This represents the prediction error corresponding to the preceding error sequence.
2. The method for predicting and compensating for the estimated arrival time of inbound flights according to claim 1, characterized in that, The process of monitoring flight data, obtaining flight schedule changes based on the basic information database, and updating flight simulation information includes: Read the basic information database, which includes a fixed point database, a route database, a flight procedure database, and an aircraft performance database; Real-time monitoring of flight data, including flight plans and flight track data; When a new flight plan is detected, a flight simulation target flight is created based on the basic information database, and the flight number and secondary code are matched with radar data to obtain the current target flight's trajectory data in order to create new flight simulation information. When a change in existing flight schedule data is detected, the basic information database and the current target flight's trajectory data are updated to calibrate the existing flight simulation information. The target flight's trajectory data includes its position, altitude, heading, and ground speed.
3. The method for predicting and compensating for the estimated arrival time of inbound flights according to claim 2, characterized in that, The step of performing flight simulation analysis on the target flight based on the flight simulation information and predicting the initial estimated arrival time of the target flight specifically includes: Based on the simulation information and an aerodynamic model, each target flight in the simulation queue will be simulated from its current position according to the set route and flight procedure until it lands. Record the start time and total flight time of the flight simulation, and preliminarily predict the initial estimated arrival time of the target flight based on the start time and total flight time. The calculation formula is as follows: CTA1=T0+ΔT Where CTA1 is the initial estimated arrival time of the target flight, T0 is the start time of the flight simulation, and ΔT is the total flight time of the flight simulation.
4. The method for predicting and compensating for the estimated arrival time of an inbound flight according to claim 3, characterized in that, The process involves obtaining the actual landing time of the target flight and the initial estimated arrival time predicted 30 minutes before landing, calculating the error results, and then classifying and summarizing these error results based on the arrival procedure to form an error sequence. Specifically: Record the actual landing time of the target flight in real time and obtain the initial estimated arrival time predicted 30 minutes before the target flight lands; The error between the actual landing time and the initial estimated arrival time 30 minutes before landing of the target flight is calculated using the following formula: Where P represents the error result. The actual landing time of the target flight. The initial estimated arrival time is predicted 30 minutes before the target flight lands. Based on the aforementioned basic information database, the arrival procedures of the target flights are obtained, and the error results are classified and summarized according to the arrival procedures of each target flight, so as to form an error sequence for the error results corresponding to the target flights with the same arrival procedures.
5. The method for predicting and compensating for the estimated arrival time of inbound flights according to claim 1, characterized in that, The calculation of the prediction error based on the grayscale model according to the error sequence is specifically as follows: Determine whether all error results in the error sequence meet the coverage range limit of the grayscale model; If the conditions are met, the compensated and corrected prediction error is calculated based on the grayscale model according to the error sequence. If the error does not meet the requirement, the error result is linearly shifted until it meets the coverage range limit.
6. The method for predicting and compensating for the estimated arrival time of inbound flights according to claim 1, characterized in that, Also includes: The system receives manually input data and corrects and calibrates relevant information based on the manually input data to intervene in flight status. The relevant information includes flight data, flight simulation information, and a basic information database.
7. A prediction and compensation correction system for the estimated arrival time of inbound flights, characterized in that, The system is applied to the method of any one of claims 1-6, and includes a route prediction and planning module, a flight simulation module, and a compensation and correction module; The route prediction and planning module is used to: monitor flight data, obtain flight plan changes based on the basic information database according to the flight data, and update flight simulation information; The flight simulation module is used to: perform flight simulation and extrapolation on the target flight based on the flight simulation information, and predict the initial estimated arrival time of the target flight; The compensation and correction module is used to: obtain the actual landing time of the target flight and the initial estimated arrival time predicted 30 minutes before landing, calculate the error result, classify and summarize the error result based on the approach procedure, and form an error sequence; The compensation and correction module is also used to: compensate and correct the error sequence to obtain the prediction error, and obtain the final predicted landing time of subsequent inbound flights based on the prediction error.