Policy evaluation method for power market reform based on policy consistency index model

Abstract

The application discloses a power marketization reform policy evaluation method based on a policy consistency index model, and introduces the policy consistency index model to evaluate the power marketization reform policy. Firstly, the power marketization reform related policy is selected as the evaluation object, the policy text to be evaluated is mined, and variable classification confirmation and parameter identification of the policy consistency index model are carried out, so that multi-dimensional variable information is obtained, so as to increase the evaluation dimension. Secondly, a multi-input and output framework is constructed, the calculation and quantitative analysis of the policy consistency index are carried out, the horizontal or vertical comparison and analysis of the policy text are carried out, the power marketization reform status and effect are scientifically evaluated, the advantages and disadvantages of the policy are objectively reflected, and tool support is provided for policy optimization.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to the technical field of power policy evaluation, and in particular to a method for evaluating power market reform policies based on a policy consistency index model. Background Technology

[0002] The Policy Consistency Index (PCI) model was proposed in 2011 by Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada, a researcher at the University of Malaya, for evaluating policy modeling. Ruiz categorized the policy models to which the PCI is applicable into 12 classes to meet the evaluation needs of different policy models. Through modifications and adjustments, the PCI model has adapted to the characteristics and attributes of public policy, leading to a gradual expansion of its application scope and a maturing methodology.

[0003] However, the existing power market reform policies have not yet fully constructed a quantitative evaluation method for power market reform policies based on the policy consistency index. The existing evaluation methods still have problems such as strong subjectivity, low accuracy, and single dimension. Summary of the Invention

[0004] The technical problem to be solved by this invention is to provide a method for evaluating power market reform policies based on a policy consistency index model, which can reduce the subjectivity and accuracy of reform policy evaluation and increase the evaluation dimensions.

[0005] To solve the above-mentioned technical problems, the technical solution adopted by the present invention is as follows:

[0006] A method for evaluating electricity market reform policies based on a policy consistency index model, comprising the following steps:

[0007] Collect policy texts related to power market reform to be evaluated, mine the policy texts to obtain keywords, and form a relationship tree based on the keywords;

[0008] The keywords and their relationship trees are classified and identified as variables for the policy consistency index, and a policy consistency index model evaluation system is constructed.

[0009] Based on the confirmed variables, a multi-input-output framework for power market reform policies is constructed, and a policy consistency index is calculated.

[0010] The aforementioned policy consistency index is used to conduct a quantitative analysis of power market reform policies.

[0011] The beneficial effects of this invention are as follows: It introduces a policy consistency index model to evaluate electricity market reform policies. First, policies related to electricity market reform are selected as evaluation objects. The policy texts are then mined, and variable classification and parameter identification for the policy consistency index model are performed to obtain multi-dimensional variable information, thereby increasing the evaluation dimensions. Second, a multi-input-output framework is constructed to calculate and quantify the policy consistency index. Horizontal or vertical comparative analyses are conducted on the policy texts to scientifically evaluate the current status and effects of electricity market reform, objectively reflect the advantages and disadvantages of the policies, and provide tools to support policy optimization. Attached Figure Description

[0012] Figure 1 A flowchart illustrating a method for evaluating power market reform policies based on a policy consistency index model, according to an embodiment of the present invention.

[0013] Figure 2 This is a flowchart illustrating the specific steps of a power market reform policy evaluation method based on a policy consistency index model, according to an embodiment of the present invention.

[0014] Figure 3 This is a framework diagram of the multi-input-output framework according to an embodiment of the present invention. Detailed Implementation

[0015] To explain in detail the technical content, objectives, and effects of the present invention, the following description is provided in conjunction with the embodiments and accompanying drawings.

[0016] Please refer to Figure 1 This invention provides a method for evaluating electricity market reform policies based on a policy consistency index model, including the following steps:

[0017] Collect policy texts related to power market reform to be evaluated, mine the policy texts to obtain keywords, and form a relationship tree based on the keywords;

[0018] The keywords and their relationship trees are classified and identified as variables for the policy consistency index, and a policy consistency index model evaluation system is constructed.

[0019] Based on the confirmed variables, a multi-input-output framework for power market reform policies is constructed, and a policy consistency index is calculated.

[0020] The aforementioned policy consistency index is used to conduct a quantitative analysis of power market reform policies.

[0021] As described above, the beneficial effects of this invention are as follows: It introduces a policy consistency index model to evaluate electricity market reform policies. First, policies related to electricity market reform are selected as evaluation objects. The policy texts are then mined, and variable classification and parameter identification for the policy consistency index model are performed to obtain multi-dimensional variable information, thereby increasing the evaluation dimensions. Second, a multi-input-output framework is constructed to calculate and quantify the policy consistency index. Horizontal or vertical comparative analyses are conducted on the policy texts to scientifically evaluate the current status and effects of electricity market reform, objectively reflect the advantages and disadvantages of the policies, and provide tools to support policy optimization.

[0022] Furthermore, the policy text to be evaluated is mined to obtain its keywords, and a relationship tree is formed based on the keywords, including:

[0023] The collected policy texts to be evaluated are preprocessed, including noise removal and text standardization.

[0024] The pre-processed policy text to be evaluated is segmented and tagged with parts of speech.

[0025] Cluster analysis was used to cluster the word segments containing part-of-speech tags to obtain the keywords of the policy text to be evaluated;

[0026] Then, the relationship between the keywords is analyzed using a distance algorithm to establish a keyword relationship tree.

[0027] As described above, text mining includes text preprocessing, word segmentation, part-of-speech tagging, and cluster analysis to obtain keywords of the policy text to be evaluated. Then, the relationship between the keywords can be analyzed by distance algorithm to build a keyword relationship tree, so that the variables of the policy consistency index model can be obtained based on the relationship tree.

[0028] Furthermore, the clustering of word segments with part-of-speech tagging through cluster analysis yields keywords for the policy text to be evaluated, including:

[0029] Cluster analysis is used to cluster the word segments with part-of-speech tags, and a preset number of central word segments closest to the cluster center are obtained in each cluster. The central word segments in each cluster are then grouped, with each group having at least two central word segments.

[0030] Calculate the similarity of each central word in each group, and calculate the average similarity of all central words in the corresponding cluster. If the similarity of the central words in a group is lower than the average similarity, then mark the central words in the group as the first keyword of the policy text to be evaluated.

[0031] Mark the most frequently occurring central word in each group as the second keyword of the policy text to be evaluated.

[0032] As described above, selecting the most frequent word segments and the most differentiated analyses from each group within each cluster as keywords can not only highlight the key points of the policy text but also improve the comprehensiveness of keyword extraction.

[0033] Furthermore, the policy consistency index variables of the keywords and their relationship tree are classified and confirmed, including:

[0034] Based on the keyword nodes in the relationship tree, the variable classification and parameter identification of the policy consistency index are performed. The keyword leaf nodes are used as secondary variables of the policy consistency index, and the parent nodes of the keyword leaf nodes are used as primary variables of the policy consistency index.

[0035] As described above, by determining the secondary and primary variables of the policy consistency index through the leaf nodes and their parent nodes of the relationship tree, a more comprehensive evaluation of the quantitative aspects of power market reform policies can be achieved.

[0036] Furthermore, the primary variables include policy nature X1, policy duration X2, policy function X3, policy area X4, policy target X5, policy focus X6, policy perspective X7, and policy reference X8; secondary variables: prediction X. 11 Regulatory X 12 Recommendation X 13 Short-term X 21 Mid-term X 22 Long-term X 23 System reform X 31 Green Development X 32 Energy Transition X 33 Ensuring supply and stabilizing prices X 34 Basic Industry X 41 Digital Industry X 42 Emerging Industries X 43 Power generation company X 51 Power grid company X 52 User X 53 Market Construction X 61 Mechanism Construction X 62 Platform Construction X 63 Macro X 71 Microscopic X 72 .

[0037] Furthermore, based on the identified variables, a multi-input-output framework for electricity market reform policies is constructed, and a policy consistency index is calculated, including:

[0038] Construct a multi-input-output framework based on the secondary and primary variables;

[0039] Using X ~ N[0,1], X={XR:[0~1]}, assign values ​​to the secondary variables, where PR represents taking integers, and the values ​​of the secondary variables follow a [0,1] distribution;

[0040] Based on the values ​​of the second-level variables, calculate the corresponding values ​​of the first-level variables:

[0041]

[0042] In the formula, t represents a first-order variable, j represents a second-order variable, and n and T(Xtj) both represent the number of second-order variables;

[0043] Calculate the policy consistency index of the policy to be evaluated:

[0044]

[0045] As described above, by assigning values ​​to the secondary variables according to the formula, the range of the primary variables can be calculated, thus completing the calculation of the policy consistency index and making the evaluation results more scientific and accurate.

[0046] Furthermore, a quantitative analysis of power market reform policies is conducted using the aforementioned policy consistency index, including:

[0047] The quality level of the power market reform policy is divided into four levels: perfect, good, acceptable, and poor, with corresponding policy consistency index ranges of 9-10, 7-8.99, 5-6.99, and 0-4.99, respectively.

[0048] As can be seen from the above description, classifying grades according to Estrada's evaluation criteria ensures the reliability of the quantitative analysis.

[0049] The above-described method for evaluating power market reform policies based on a policy consistency index model is applicable to reducing the subjectivity and accuracy of reform policy evaluation and can increase evaluation dimensions. The following describes a specific implementation method:

[0050] Example 1

[0051] Please refer to Figure 1 and Figure 2 A method for evaluating electricity market reform policies based on a policy consistency index model, comprising the following steps:

[0052] S1. Collect policy texts to be evaluated for power market reform, mine the policy texts to be evaluated to obtain keywords, and form a relationship tree based on the keywords.

[0053] S11. The collected policy text to be evaluated is preprocessed, including noise removal and text standardization.

[0054] S12. Perform word segmentation and part-of-speech tagging on the pre-processed policy text to be evaluated.

[0055] S13. Cluster analysis is used to cluster the word segments containing part-of-speech tags to obtain the keywords of the policy text to be evaluated.

[0056] Specifically, cluster analysis is used to cluster the word segments with part-of-speech tags, and a predetermined number of center words closest to the cluster center are obtained in each cluster. The center words in each cluster are grouped, with each group having at least two center words. The similarity of each center word in each group is calculated, and the average similarity of all center words in the corresponding cluster is calculated. If the similarity of the center words in a group is lower than the average similarity, the center words in the group are marked as the first keyword of the policy text to be evaluated. The center word that appears most frequently in each group is marked as the second keyword of the policy text to be evaluated.

[0057] S14. Then, the relationship between the keywords is analyzed using a distance algorithm to establish a keyword relationship tree.

[0058] S2. Classify and identify variables and parameters for the policy consistency index of the keywords and their relationship tree, and construct an evaluation system for the policy consistency index model.

[0059] Based on the keyword nodes in the relationship tree, the variables of the policy consistency index are classified and identified, resulting in primary and secondary variables of the policy consistency index. In some embodiments, the keyword leaf nodes are used as secondary variables, and the parent nodes of the keyword leaf nodes are used as primary variables.

[0060] In some embodiments, the primary variables of the policy consistency index model evaluation system indicators can be systematically sorted out first, and secondary variables can be determined based on the primary variables, which helps to evaluate the quantitative aspects of power market reform policies more comprehensively, scientifically and systematically.

[0061] The primary variables include policy nature (X1), policy duration (X2), policy function (X3), policy area (X4), policy target (X5), policy focus (X6), policy perspective (X7), and policy reference (X8); the secondary variables are: prediction (X). 11 Regulatory X 12 Recommendation X 13 Short-term X 21 Mid-term X 22 Long-term X 23 System reform X 31 Green Development X 32 Energy Transition X33 Ensuring supply and stabilizing prices X 34 Basic Industry X 41 Digital Industry X 42 Emerging Industries X 43 Power generation company X 51 Power grid company X 52 User X 53 Market Construction X 61 Mechanism Construction X 62 Platform Construction X 63 Macro X 71 Microscopic X 72 .

[0062] S3. Construct a multi-input-output framework for power market reform policies based on the confirmed variables, and calculate the policy consistency index.

[0063] Please refer to Figure 3 Based on the secondary and primary variables, a multi-input-output framework is constructed to measure the evolution of any single variable in multiple dimensions. This allows for the identification of internal policy consistency and the comparison of the merits and demerits of different policies, ensuring consistent weights for secondary variables and reducing subjective errors in policy quantitative analysis.

[0064] Using X ~ N[0,1], X={XR:[0~1]}, assign values ​​to the secondary variables, where PR represents taking integers, and the values ​​of the secondary variables follow a [0,1] distribution;

[0065] Based on the values ​​of the second-level variables, calculate the corresponding values ​​of the first-level variables:

[0066]

[0067] In the formula, t represents a first-order variable, j represents a second-order variable, and n and T(Xtj) both represent the number of second-order variables;

[0068] Calculate the policy consistency index of the policy to be evaluated:

[0069]

[0070] In this way, by assigning values ​​to the secondary variables according to the formula, the range of the primary variables can be calculated, and the policy consistency index can be calculated and rated, making the evaluation results more scientific and accurate.

[0071] S4. Conduct quantitative analysis of power market reform policies using the aforementioned policy consistency index.

[0072] The quality level of the power market reform policy is divided into four levels: perfect, good, acceptable, and poor, with corresponding policy consistency index ranges of 9-10, 7-8.99, 5-6.99, and 0-4.99, respectively.

[0073] In summary, this invention provides a policy evaluation method for power market reform based on a policy consistency index model. By selecting and mining relevant policies for power market reform, a policy consistency index model evaluation system is constructed, making the quantitative indicators for evaluating power market reform policies more comprehensive, scientific, and systematic. Specifically, a data analysis framework is built, and the policy consistency index is calculated and rated. The policy consistency index is then used for quantitative policy analysis, making the process of evaluating power market reform policies faster and the results more accurate. This facilitates timely and targeted adjustments to power market reform policies.

[0074] The above description is merely an embodiment of the present invention and does not limit the patent scope of the present invention. Any equivalent modifications made based on the content of the present invention specification and drawings, or direct or indirect applications in related technical fields, are similarly included within the patent protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for evaluating electricity market reform policies based on a policy consistency index model, characterized in that, Including the following steps: Collect policy texts related to power market reform to be evaluated, mine the policy texts to obtain keywords, and form a relationship tree based on the keywords; The keywords and their relationship trees are classified and identified as variables for the policy consistency index, and a policy consistency index model evaluation system is constructed. The variable classification and confirmation of the policy consistency index for the keywords and their relationship tree includes: classifying and confirming the variables and identifying the parameters of the policy consistency index based on the keyword nodes in the relationship tree, taking the keyword leaf nodes as secondary variables of the policy consistency index, and taking the parent nodes of the keyword leaf nodes as primary variables of the policy consistency index. The primary variables include policy nature (X1), policy duration (X2), policy function (X3), policy scope (X4), policy target (X5), policy focus (X6), policy perspective (X7), and policy citation (X8); secondary variables include: prediction (X). 11 Regulatory X 12 Recommendation X 13 Short-term X 21 Mid-term X 22 Long-term X 23 System reform X 31 Green Development X 32 Energy Transition X 33 Ensuring supply and stabilizing prices X 34 Basic Industry X 41 Digital Industry X 42 Emerging Industries X 43 Power generation company X 51 Power grid company X 52 User X 53 Market Construction X 61 Mechanism Construction X 62 Platform Construction X 63 Macro X 71 Microscopic X 72 ; Based on the aforementioned secondary and primary variables, a multi-input-output framework for electricity market reform policies is constructed, and a policy consistency index is calculated, including: Construct a multi-input-output framework based on the secondary and primary variables; Using X ~ N[0,1], X={XR:[0~1]} to assign values ​​to the second-order variables, the values ​​of the second-order variables follow a distribution of [0,1]; Based on the values ​​of the second-level variables, calculate the corresponding values ​​of the first-level variables: ； In the formula, t Represents a first-level variable. j Represents a second-level variable. n and T ( X tj () represents the number of second-level variables; Calculate the policy consistency index of the policy to be evaluated: ； The aforementioned policy consistency index is used to conduct a quantitative analysis of power market reform policies.

2. The method for evaluating power market reform policies based on a policy consistency index model as described in claim 1, characterized in that, The policy text to be evaluated is mined to obtain its keywords, and a relationship tree is formed based on the keywords, including: The collected policy texts to be evaluated are preprocessed, including noise removal and text standardization. The pre-processed policy text to be evaluated is segmented and tagged with parts of speech. Cluster analysis was used to cluster the word segments containing part-of-speech tags to obtain the keywords of the policy text to be evaluated; Then, the relationship between the keywords is analyzed using a distance algorithm to establish a keyword relationship tree.

3. The method for evaluating power market reform policies based on a policy consistency index model as described in claim 2, characterized in that, The process involves clustering the word segments with part-of-speech tags using cluster analysis to obtain the keywords of the policy text to be evaluated, including: Cluster analysis is used to cluster the word segments with part-of-speech tags, and a preset number of central word segments closest to the cluster center are obtained in each cluster. The central word segments in each cluster are then grouped, with each group having at least two central word segments. Calculate the similarity of each central word in each group, and calculate the average similarity of all central words in the corresponding cluster. If the similarity of the central words in a group is lower than the average similarity, then mark the central words in the group as the first keyword of the policy text to be evaluated. Mark the most frequently occurring central word in each group as the second keyword of the policy text to be evaluated.

4. The method for evaluating power market reform policies based on a policy consistency index model as described in claim 1, characterized in that, The quantitative analysis of power market reform policies is conducted using the aforementioned policy consistency index, including: The quality level of the power market reform policy is divided into four levels: perfect, good, acceptable, and poor, with corresponding policy consistency index ranges of 9-10, 7-8.99, 5-6.99, and 0-4.99, respectively.

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