A multi-time scale power configuration method adapted to new power systems

Abstract

The present invention discloses a multi-time scale power configuration method adapted to a new power system, which forms a coal-fired power generation sequence by setting a coal-fired power development path, generates an external power scale sequence by constraining power balance and coal-fired power generation hours, generates a pumped storage and electrochemical energy storage scale sequence by power balance constraints, and inputs the calculated power generation combination into an 8760 power timing simulation model, and corrects the power configuration result by constraining the consumption level. Compared with the traditional method, the present invention integrates the power configuration method of the long time scale and the hourly time scale, and the method can simultaneously meet the needs of system power support, coal-fired power transformation, new energy consumption, etc., and has great guiding significance for the power planning of the new power system.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention belongs to the technical field of power supply configuration, and in particular relates to a multi-time scale power supply configuration method adapted to a new type of power system. Background Art

[0002] Efficient power supply configuration is an important part of the research on new power systems. The existing power supply configuration methods mainly focus on the power supply configuration for a given planning year, while the power supply configuration methods for long time scales lack consideration of the system's absorption capacity.

[0003] In view of this, a multi-time scale power configuration method adapted to the new power system is proposed. Summary of the invention

[0004] In view of the above technical problems, the present invention provides a multi-time scale power supply configuration method adapted to a new type of power system.

[0005] The technical solution adopted by the present invention to solve the technical problem is:

[0006] A multi-time scale power supply configuration method adapted to a new power system, the method comprising the following steps:

[0007] S100: Obtain the existing installed capacity and external power situation of the planning area, the commissioning time and installed capacity of each coal-fired power unit in the starting year, and the upper limit of the exploitable amount of various power sources; obtain the maximum load and power consumption year by year in the planning year interval, and the installed capacity and power generation hours of the confirmed power sources year by year; obtain the load time series, wind power, photovoltaic, biomass, hydropower, and nuclear power forecast output time series within the planning year interval;

[0008] S200: Generate coal-fired power sequence: Set the peak installed capacity of coal-fired power, the service time of coal-fired power units, and the development ideas of coal-fired power. Set the ideas according to the scenarios to form the coal-fired power retirement sequence, production sequence, and installation sequence;

[0009] S300: Generate external power demand through power balance and coal-fired power generation hours constraint: Calculate the annual power generation of the specified power source, consider the external power input in the previous year, and the remaining power gap will be borne by coal-fired power. If the coal-fired power generation hours in the current year exceed the upper limit, a new external power source will be introduced, thus forming an external power scale sequence and an external power input sequence;

[0010] S400: Generate pumped storage and electrochemical energy storage demand through power balance constraints: Set the output coefficients of various power sources, among which pumped storage and electrochemical energy storage take corresponding efficiency coefficients according to the total installed capacity and configuration time each year; set the annual reserve rate and peak reduction rate, and calculate the annual power profit and loss situation based on the above output coefficients and efficiency coefficients. If there is a power gap, add pumped storage as needed. If the installed capacity of pumped storage has reached the upper limit of development, add electrochemical energy storage as needed;

[0011] S500: Correct the installed power capacity by consuming level constraints: input the obtained installed power capacity into the power sequence simulation model. If the calculated wind and solar power abandonment rates are greater than the limit, then add pumped storage and electrochemical energy storage capacity until the wind and solar power abandonment rate limits are met. Use the corresponding wind and solar power abandonment rates after the correction of the pumped storage and electrochemical energy storage capacity as a reference to correct the annual wind power and photovoltaic power generation hours, and repeat iterations of S200-S400 until the external power scale series does not change. The annual power combination plan formed is the configuration result.

[0012] Preferably, S200 includes:

[0013] S210: Set the peak installed capacity of coal-fired power to , Service life of large coal-fired power units 2. Service life of small coal-fired power units , calculate the retirement time of each unit according to the set service life, and then form a coal-fired power retirement sequence ;

[0014] S220: Set the coal-fired power development mode. If the coal-fired power installed capacity constant mode is selected, when the coal-fired power installed capacity is lower than the coal-fired power peak installed capacity, When the new coal-fired power units with a capacity of 1 million are put into operation, the coal-fired power installed capacity put into operation in that year is expressed by the formula as follows:

[0015] (1)

[0016] In the formula, is the coal-fired power installed capacity put into operation in the nth year, rounddown is the downward rounding function, is the coal-fired power installed capacity in year n-1, The coal-fired power generation capacity that needs to be retired in the nth year;

[0017] If the coal-fired power generation is phased out without subsidies, the annual coal-fired power generation capacity will be The coal power generation capacity sequence is formed by combining the coal power retirement sequence and the production sequence, as follows:

[0018] (2)

[0019] In the formula, The coal-fired power generation capacity in the nth year.

[0020] Preferably, S300 includes:

[0021] S310: Calculate the annual power generation of the identified power sources, including wind power, photovoltaic power, biomass, hydropower, gas power, and nuclear power, and include the power loss during the charging and discharging process of pumped storage and electrochemical energy storage into the power consumption. After considering the power input from external power in the previous year, the remaining power gap is borne by coal-fired power. Calculate the power required each year in addition to coal-fired power. The specific method for calculating coal-fired power generation is as follows:

[0022] (3)

[0023] In the formula, is the coal-fired power generation in year n, Plan the regional load power consumption for the nth year, , , , , , , , They are photovoltaic, wind power, biomass, hydropower, gas power, nuclear power, pumped storage, and electrochemical energy storage installed capacity in the nth year. , , , , , are the number of hours of power generation from photovoltaic, wind, biomass, hydropower, gas and nuclear power in the nth year, , They are the equivalent hours of charging and discharging losses of pumped storage and electrochemical energy storage installed capacity, The amount of electricity sent in from outside last year;

[0024] S320: Calculate the number of coal-fired power generation hours based on coal-fired power generation, as follows:

[0025] (4)

[0026] In the formula, is the number of coal-fired power generation hours in year n;

[0027] S330: Set an upper limit on coal-fired power generation hours ,like , then a new external power is added, and the external power scale sequence and external power quantity sequence are as follows:

[0028] (5)

[0029] (6)

[0030] In the formula, , are the external power scale in the nth year and the n-1th year respectively, is the scale of new external electricity in the nth year, , are the external power supply in the nth year and the n-1th year respectively, The amount of new external electricity transmitted in the nth year.

[0031] Preferably, S400 includes:

[0032] S410: Determine the output coefficients of various power sources under heavy load mode: Extract the predicted output time series of wind power, photovoltaic power, hydropower, and biomass under heavy load mode year by year, and sort them from small to large, and take the wind power output coefficients under heavy load mode year by year according to the 95% confidence interval principle , Photovoltaic output coefficient , Hydropower output coefficient , Biomass output coefficient ; Coal-fired power output coefficient under heavy load mode , Gas-electricity output coefficient , Nuclear power output coefficient Take 1.0 for both; external power output coefficient under heavy load mode The value is determined according to the power supply configuration at the sending end;

[0033] S420: Define the support capacity of energy storage for the power system under large load mode as the energy storage capacity benefit, which integrates the energy storage installed capacity and equivalent configuration hours, and determines the pumped storage capacity benefit coefficient and electrochemical energy storage capacity efficiency coefficient ;

[0034] S430: Calculate the annual electricity profit and loss as follows:

[0035] (7)

[0036] In the formula, is the electricity profit and loss result in the nth year. If the value is positive, it means there is a surplus of electricity, otherwise it means there is a deficit of electricity. is the planned regional maximum load in the nth year, , are the system reserve rate and load peak reduction rate respectively;

[0037] S440: When The calculation method for the installed capacity of pumped storage put into operation in that year is as follows:

[0038] (8)

[0039] In the formula, The newly commissioned pumped storage capacity in the nth year; , The efficiency coefficient of pumped storage installed capacity and pumped storage capacity in year n-1 respectively; The upper limit of pumped storage development in the planning area is is the capacity of a typical pumped storage unit; roundup is the upward rounding function, and min is the minimum value function;

[0040] S450: When and , that is, the scale of pumped storage development has reached the upper limit, and the calculation of electrochemical energy storage capacity put into operation that year is as follows:

[0041] (9)

[0042] In the formula, The newly commissioned electrochemical energy storage capacity in the nth year; is the electrochemical energy storage efficiency coefficient in the n-1th year; is the unit capacity of a typical electrochemical energy storage unit;

[0043] S460: Generate the pumped storage capacity sequence and equivalent configuration hours based on the calculation results of S410 to S450 as follows:

[0044] (10)

[0045] In the formula, , are the equivalent deployment hours of pumped storage in year n and year n-1 respectively, is the configuration hours of the newly commissioned pumped storage in year n;

[0046] S470: Generate the electrochemical energy storage installed capacity sequence and equivalent configuration hours according to the calculation results of S410 to S450 as follows:

[0047] (11)

[0048] In the formula, , are the equivalent configuration hours of electrochemical energy storage in year n and year n-1, respectively. is the configuration hours of the newly commissioned electrochemical energy storage in year n.

[0049] Preferably, S500 includes:

[0050] S510: Based on S100~S400, various power generation installed capacity sequences under the constraints of power balance and resource development upper limit are formed. The various power generation installed capacity sequences and the predicted load time series, wind power, photovoltaic, biomass, hydropower, and nuclear power predicted output time series within the planning year obtained in S100 are input into the 8760 power time series simulation software to calculate the annual wind curtailment rate. and light abandonment rate ;

[0051] S520: Setting an upper limit on wind curtailment rate and the upper limit of the abandonment rate , according to the annual wind curtailment rate and light abandonment rate Wind curtailment rate cap and the upper limit of the abandonment rate The relationship between them is used to correct the installed capacity of pumped storage and electrochemical energy storage;

[0052] S530: Using the annual wind power abandonment rate and solar power abandonment rate generated by S510 as a reference, the annual wind power and photovoltaic power generation hours are corrected as follows:

[0053] (12)

[0054] In the formula, , is the number of photovoltaic power generation hours in the nth year in the i+1th and ith iteration calculations; , is the number of wind power generation hours in the nth year in the i+1th and ith iteration calculations; and is the solar power curtailment rate and wind power curtailment rate in the nth year in the i-1th iteration calculation;

[0055] S540: The number of generating hours of each type of power source obtained in S100 is used as the first iteration value. After executing S210~S530, the number of wind power and photovoltaic power generation hours in the i-th iteration calculation is corrected to form the number of wind power and photovoltaic power generation hours required for the i+1-th iteration; S200~S300 are repeated using the number of generating hours used in the i+1-th iteration to generate the external power scale sequence in the i+1-th iteration calculation value, and it is determined whether the correction of the number of generating hours affects the external power scale sequence. If the external power commissioning timing is not changed in this iteration, the iteration is terminated, and the final installed capacity sequence of each type of power source is formed, which is the configuration result.

[0056] Preferably, S520 includes:

[0057] like or , determine whether pumped storage has reached the upper limit of resource development If not, then add new pumped storage capacity If yes, then add electrochemical energy storage capacity , and returns to S510;

[0058] like and , output corrected pumped storage installed capacity in year n 、Electrochemical energy storage installed , wind curtailment rate And the rate of abandoned light .

[0059] Preferably, S540 further includes:

[0060] If the correction of the generating hours changes the timing of the external power supply in this iteration, the process returns to execute S210 to S530 for the next iteration. If the timing of the external power supply is not changed in the current iteration, the iteration is terminated, and the final configuration result is the sequence of the installed capacity of each type of power supply.

[0061] The above-mentioned multi-time scale power configuration method adapted to the new power system forms a coal-fired power generation sequence by setting the coal-fired power development path, generates an external power scale sequence by power balance and coal-fired power generation hours constraint, generates a pumped storage and electrochemical energy storage scale sequence by power balance constraint, and inputs the calculated power generation combination into the 8760 power timing simulation model, and corrects the power configuration result by the consumption level constraint. Compared with the traditional method, the present invention integrates the power configuration method of the long time scale and the hourly time scale. The method can simultaneously meet the needs of system power support, coal-fired power transformation, new energy consumption, etc., and has great guiding significance for the power planning of the new power system. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0062] Figure 1 It is a flow chart of a multi-time scale power supply configuration method adapted to a new type of power system in one embodiment of the present invention;

[0063] Figure 2 It is a graph of energy storage capacity benefit curve in one embodiment of the present invention;

[0064] Figure 3 This is a flow chart of a method for correcting energy storage installed capacity based on power abandonment rate calculation in one embodiment of the present invention;

[0065] Figure 4 is an implementation flow chart of S540 in one embodiment of the present invention;

[0066] Figure 5 This is a schematic diagram of the power installed capacity structure distribution of a certain province in 2023 in one embodiment of the present invention;

[0067] Figure 6 This is a load and power consumption sequence diagram of a province from 2024 to 2060 in one embodiment of the present invention;

[0068] Figure 7 This is a diagram of a power supply installed capacity sequence that has been determined for a province from 2024 to 2060 in one embodiment of the present invention;

[0069] Figure 8 It is a sequence diagram of the number of hours of power generation of a certain province from 2024 to 2060 in one embodiment of the present invention;

[0070] Fig. 9This is a coal-fired power retirement sequence diagram for Path 1 and Path 2 from 2024 to 2060 in one embodiment of the present invention;

[0071] Fig.10 It is a sequence diagram of coal-fired power generation capacity put into operation in the current year for Path 1 and Path 2 from 2024 to 2060 in one embodiment of the present invention;

[0072] Fig.11 This is a coal-fired power generation capacity sequence diagram for Path 1 and Path 2 from 2024 to 2060 in one embodiment of the present invention;

[0073] Fig.12 This is a schematic diagram of the electricity shortage from 2024 to 2060 in one embodiment of the present invention;

[0074] Fig.13 This is a graph of coal power hours and external power scale for Path 1 from 2024 to 2060 in one embodiment of the present invention;

[0075] Fig.14 This is a graph of coal power hours and external power scale for Path 2 from 2024 to 2060 in an embodiment of the present invention;

[0076] Fig.15 The system reserve rate and load peak reduction rate values ​​for 2024 to 2060 in one embodiment of the present invention;

[0077] Fig.16 The pumped storage and electrochemical energy storage installed capacity specified for 2024 to 2060 in one embodiment of the present invention;

[0078] Fig.17 The equivalent configuration hours and capacity efficiency coefficient of electrochemical energy storage from 2024 to 2060 in one embodiment of the present invention have been determined;

[0079] Fig.18 The equivalent configuration hours and capacity efficiency coefficient of pumped storage that have been specified from 2024 to 2060 in one embodiment of the present invention;

[0080] Fig.19 Schematic diagram of power shortage of path 1 and path 2 from 2024 to 2060 in one embodiment of the present invention; wherein (a) is a schematic diagram of power shortage of path 1, and (b) is a schematic diagram of power shortage of path 2;

[0081] Fig. 20 The electrochemical energy storage and pumped storage installed capacity sequence of path one and path two after calculation according to S400 in one embodiment of the present invention; wherein (a) is the electrochemical energy storage and pumped storage installed capacity sequence of path one, and (b) is the electrochemical energy storage and pumped storage installed capacity sequence of path two;

[0082] Fig.21The equivalent configuration hours and capacity efficiency coefficient of electrochemical energy storage of path one and path two after calculation according to S400 in one embodiment of the present invention; wherein (a) is the equivalent configuration hours and capacity efficiency coefficient of electrochemical energy storage of path one, and (b) is the equivalent configuration hours and capacity efficiency coefficient of electrochemical energy storage of path two;

[0083] Fig. 22 The equivalent configuration hours and capacity efficiency coefficient of pumped storage for path one and path two calculated according to S400 in one embodiment of the present invention; wherein (a) is the equivalent configuration hours and capacity efficiency coefficient of pumped storage for path one, and (b) is the equivalent configuration hours and capacity efficiency coefficient of pumped storage for path two;

[0084] Fig.23 The configuration results of various types of power supplies in path 1 in an embodiment of the present invention;

[0085] Fig.24 The configuration results of various types of power supplies installed in path 2 in an embodiment of the present invention;

[0086] Fig.25 The configuration results of various types of power supply installed in a key year path in an embodiment of the present invention;

[0087] Fig.26 This is the configuration result of various power supply installations in the key year path 2 in an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0088] In order to enable those skilled in the art to better understand the technical solution of the present invention, the present invention is further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0089] In one embodiment, Figure 1 As shown, a multi-time scale power supply configuration method adapted to a new power system comprises the following steps:

[0090] S100: Obtain the existing installed capacity and external power situation of the planning area, the commissioning time and installed capacity of each coal-fired power unit in the starting year, and the upper limit of the exploitable amount of various power sources; obtain the annual maximum load, power consumption, and the annual installed capacity and power generation hours of the confirmed power sources (including wind power, photovoltaic power, biomass, hydropower, gas power, and nuclear power) within the planning year interval; obtain the load time series, wind power, photovoltaic power, biomass, hydropower, and nuclear power forecast output time series within the planning year interval;

[0091] S200: Generate coal-fired power sequence: Set the peak installed capacity of coal-fired power, the service time of coal-fired power units, and the development ideas of coal-fired power. Set the ideas according to the scenarios to form the coal-fired power retirement sequence, production sequence, and installation sequence;

[0092] S300: Generate external power demand through power balance and coal-fired power generation hours constraint: Calculate the annual power generation of the specified power sources (including wind power, photovoltaic power, biomass, hydropower, gas power, and nuclear power), consider the power input from external power in the previous year, and the remaining power gap will be borne by coal-fired power. If the number of coal-fired power generation hours in the current year exceeds the upper limit, a new external power source will be introduced, thus forming an external power scale sequence and an external power input sequence;

[0093] S400: Generate pumped storage and electrochemical energy storage demand through power balance constraints: Set the output coefficients of various power sources, among which pumped storage and electrochemical energy storage take corresponding efficiency coefficients according to the total installed capacity and configuration time each year; set the annual reserve rate and peak reduction rate, and calculate the annual power profit and loss situation based on the above output coefficients and efficiency coefficients. If there is a power gap, add pumped storage as needed. If the installed capacity of pumped storage has reached the upper limit of development, add electrochemical energy storage as needed;

[0094] S500: Correct the installed power capacity by consuming level constraints: input the obtained installed power capacity into the power sequence simulation model. If the calculated wind and solar power abandonment rates are greater than the limit, then add pumped storage and electrochemical energy storage capacity until the wind and solar power abandonment rate limits are met. Use the corresponding wind and solar power abandonment rates after the correction of the pumped storage and electrochemical energy storage capacity as a reference to correct the annual wind power and photovoltaic power generation hours, and repeat iterations of S200-S400 until the external power scale series does not change. The annual power combination plan formed is the configuration result.

[0095] The above-mentioned multi-time scale power supply configuration method adapted to the new power system realizes long-time scale and multi-year power supply configuration based on power and electricity balance constraints and resource development upper limit constraints. At the same time, the wind and solar power abandonment rates are calculated through 8760 power timing simulation, and the power supply configuration results are corrected to form a multi-time scale power supply configuration method adapted to the new power system.

[0096] In one embodiment, S200 includes:

[0097] S210: Set the peak installed capacity of coal-fired power to , Service life of large coal-fired power units 2. Service life of small coal-fired power units , calculate the retirement time of each unit according to the set service life, and then form a coal-fired power retirement sequence ;

[0098] S220: Set the coal-fired power development mode. If the coal-fired power installed capacity constant mode is selected, when the coal-fired power installed capacity is lower than the coal-fired power peak installed capacity, When the new coal-fired power units with a capacity of 1 million are put into operation, the coal-fired power installed capacity put into operation in that year is expressed by the formula as follows:

[0099] (1)

[0100] In the formula, is the coal-fired power installed capacity put into operation in the nth year, rounddown is the downward rounding function, is the coal-fired power installed capacity in year n-1, The coal-fired power generation capacity that needs to be retired in the nth year;

[0101] If the coal-fired power generation is phased out without subsidies, the annual coal-fired power generation capacity will be The coal power generation capacity sequence is formed by combining the coal power retirement sequence and the production sequence, as follows:

[0102] (2)

[0103] In the formula, The coal-fired power generation capacity in the nth year.

[0104] In one embodiment, S300 includes:

[0105] S310: Calculate the annual power generation of the identified power sources, including wind power, photovoltaic power, biomass, hydropower, gas power, and nuclear power, and include the power loss during the charging and discharging process of pumped storage and electrochemical energy storage into the power consumption. After considering the power input from external power in the previous year, the remaining power gap is borne by coal-fired power. Calculate the power required each year in addition to coal-fired power. The specific method for calculating coal-fired power generation is as follows:

[0106] (3)

[0107] In the formula, is the coal-fired power generation in year n, Plan the regional load power consumption for the nth year, , , , , , , , They are photovoltaic, wind power, biomass, hydropower, gas power, nuclear power, pumped storage, and electrochemical energy storage installed capacity in the nth year. , , , , , are the number of hours of power generation from photovoltaic, wind, biomass, hydropower, gas and nuclear power in the nth year, , They are the equivalent hours of charging and discharging losses of pumped storage and electrochemical energy storage installed capacity, The amount of electricity sent in from outside last year;

[0108] S320: Calculate the number of coal-fired power generation hours based on coal-fired power generation, as follows:

[0109] (4)

[0110] In the formula, is the number of coal-fired power generation hours in year n;

[0111] S330: Set an upper limit on coal-fired power generation hours ,like , then a new external power is added, and the external power scale sequence and external power quantity sequence are as follows:

[0112] (5)

[0113] (6)

[0114] In the formula, , are the external power scale in the nth year and the n-1th year respectively, is the scale of new external electricity in the nth year, , are the external power supply in the nth year and the n-1th year respectively, The amount of new external electricity transmitted in the nth year.

[0115] In one embodiment, S400 includes:

[0116] S410: Determine the output coefficients of various power sources under heavy load mode: Extract the predicted output time series of wind power, photovoltaic power, hydropower, and biomass under heavy load mode year by year, and sort them from small to large, and take the wind power output coefficients under heavy load mode year by year according to the 95% confidence interval principle , Photovoltaic output coefficient , Hydropower output coefficient , Biomass output coefficient ; Coal-fired power output coefficient under heavy load mode , Gas-electricity output coefficient , Nuclear power output coefficient Take 1.0 for both; external power output coefficient under heavy load mode The value is determined according to the power supply configuration at the sending end;

[0117] S420: Define the support capacity of energy storage (including pumped storage and electrochemical energy storage) for the power system under heavy load as energy storage capacity benefit, and determine the pumped storage capacity benefit coefficient by combining energy storage installed capacity and equivalent configuration hours. and electrochemical energy storage capacity efficiency coefficient Furthermore, the energy storage capacity benefit is related to the equivalent configuration hours of energy storage and the total installed capacity of energy storage. The energy storage capacity benefit curve is as follows: Figure 2 As shown;

[0118] S430: Calculate the annual electricity profit and loss as follows:

[0119] (7)

[0120] In the formula, is the electricity profit and loss result in the nth year. If the value is positive, it means there is a surplus of electricity, otherwise it means there is a deficit of electricity. is the planned regional maximum load in the nth year, , are the system reserve rate and load peak reduction rate respectively;

[0121] S440: When The calculation method for the installed capacity of pumped storage put into operation in that year is as follows:

[0122] (8)

[0123] In the formula, The newly commissioned pumped storage capacity in the nth year; , The efficiency coefficient of pumped storage installed capacity and pumped storage capacity in year n-1 respectively; The upper limit of pumped storage development in the planning area is is the capacity of a typical pumped storage unit; roundup is the upward rounding function, and min is the minimum value function;

[0124] S450: When and , that is, the scale of pumped storage development has reached the upper limit, and the calculation of electrochemical energy storage capacity put into operation that year is as follows:

[0125] (9)

[0126] In the formula, The newly commissioned electrochemical energy storage capacity in the nth year; is the electrochemical energy storage efficiency coefficient in the n-1th year; is the unit capacity of a typical electrochemical energy storage unit;

[0127] S460: Generate the pumped storage capacity sequence and equivalent configuration hours based on the calculation results of S410 to S450 as follows:

[0128] (10)

[0129] In the formula, , are the equivalent deployment hours of pumped storage in year n and year n-1 respectively, is the configuration hours of the newly commissioned pumped storage in year n;

[0130] S470: Generate the electrochemical energy storage installed capacity sequence and equivalent configuration hours according to the calculation results of S410 to S450 as follows:

[0131] (11)

[0132] In the formula, , are the equivalent configuration hours of electrochemical energy storage in year n and year n-1, respectively. is the configuration hours of the newly commissioned electrochemical energy storage in year n.

[0133] In one embodiment, S500 includes:

[0134] S510: Based on S100~S400, various power generation installed capacity sequences under the constraints of power balance and resource development upper limit are formed. The various power generation installed capacity sequences and the predicted load time series, wind power, photovoltaic, biomass, hydropower, and nuclear power predicted output time series within the planning year obtained in S100 are input into the 8760 power time series simulation software to calculate the annual wind curtailment rate. and light abandonment rate ;

[0135] S520: Setting an upper limit on wind curtailment rate and the upper limit of the abandonment rate , according to the annual wind curtailment rate and light abandonment rate Wind curtailment rate cap and the upper limit of the abandonment rate The relationship between them is used to correct the installed capacity of pumped storage and electrochemical energy storage;

[0136] S530: Using the annual wind power abandonment rate and solar power abandonment rate generated by S510 as a reference, the annual wind power and photovoltaic power generation hours are corrected as follows:

[0137] (12)

[0138] In the formula, , is the number of photovoltaic power generation hours in the nth year in the i+1th and ith iteration calculations; , is the number of wind power generation hours in the nth year in the i+1th and ith iteration calculations; and is the solar power curtailment rate and wind power curtailment rate in the nth year in the i-1th iteration calculation;

[0139] S540: The number of generating hours of each type of power source obtained in S100 is used as the first iteration value. After executing S210~S530, the number of wind power and photovoltaic power generation hours in the i-th iteration calculation is corrected to form the number of wind power and photovoltaic power generation hours required for the i+1-th iteration; S200~S300 are repeated using the number of generating hours used in the i+1-th iteration to generate the external power scale sequence in the i+1-th iteration calculation value, and it is determined whether the correction of the number of generating hours affects the external power scale sequence. If the external power commissioning timing is not changed in this iteration, the iteration is terminated, and the final installed capacity sequence of each type of power source is formed, which is the configuration result.

[0140] In one embodiment, Figure 3 As shown, S520 includes:

[0141] like or , determine whether pumped storage has reached the upper limit of resource development If not, then add new pumped storage capacity If yes, then add electrochemical energy storage capacity , and returns to S510;

[0142] like and , output corrected pumped storage installed capacity in year n 、Electrochemical energy storage installed , wind curtailment rate And the rate of abandoned light .

[0143] In one embodiment, S540 further includes:

[0144] If the correction of the generating hours changes the timing of the external power supply in this iteration, the process returns to execute S210 to S530 for the next iteration. If the timing of the external power supply is not changed in the current iteration, the iteration is terminated, and the final configuration result is the sequence of the installed capacity of each type of power supply.

[0145] Specifically, the implementation process of S540 is as follows: Figure 4 shown.

[0146] In order to further understand the working principle and technical effect of the present invention, a simulation is carried out below taking the power supply configuration plan of a certain province from 2023 to 2060 as an example.

[0147] (I) According to S100, the planning area is set as a province in the central region, and the planning year interval is 2024 to 2060. The power installed capacity structure of a province in the starting year 2023 is obtained as follows: Figure 5 As shown; Get the maximum load and power consumption of each year in the planning year interval as follows Figure 6As shown; obtain the annual installed capacity of the identified power sources (including wind power, photovoltaic power, biomass, hydropower, gas power, and nuclear power) as shown Figure 7 As shown, the number of hours of power generation is as follows Figure 8 In addition, according to the power supply plan, it is expected that by 2030, the province's pumped storage capacity will reach 10.4 million kilowatts, electrochemical energy storage capacity will reach 4.5 million kilowatts, and external power will reach 29.76 million kilowatts. The above power supply capacity will be included in the calculation as a clear power source.

[0148] (II) According to S21, two types of coal-fired power development paths are set up as shown in Table 1, and the coal-fired power retirement sequence is shown in Fig. 9 The difference between Path 1 and Path 2 in the coal-fired power retirement sequence is mainly reflected in the service life of small units.

[0149] Table 1 Coal-fired power development path setting

[0150] ;

[0151] According to S220, the sequence of coal-fired power generation capacity put into operation in that year is as follows: Fig.10 And the coal-fired power generation sequence is as follows Fig.11 As shown, in path one, coal-fired power generation capacity will basically remain at around 40 million kilowatts after 2030; in path two, after coal-fired power generation capacity reaches its peak capacity of 38.5 million kilowatts, no new coal-fired power units will be put into operation, and its installed capacity will decrease over time, reaching 23.58 million kilowatts in 2060.

[0152] (III) According to S310, the annual electricity shortage can be calculated as follows: Fig.12 As shown in the black shaded area, the electricity gap is borne by coal-fired power and new external power.

[0153] Since there is a power shortage in a certain province from 2024 to 2027, the late timing of external power production cannot provide support for the initial power supply. Since the number of coal-fired power generation hours is allowed to be greater than 3,800 hours from 2024 to 2027, an upper limit is set for the number of coal-fired power generation hours after 2027. is 3500 hours. In that year, a new DC line was put into operation. The scale of each DC line was calculated as 8 million kilowatts. The power input in the year of operation was calculated as 18 billion kilowatt-hours, and then calculated as 36 billion kilowatt-hours each year.

[0154] Through S320 and S330, the coal-fired power hours and external power scale series can be calculated. Fig.13 , Fig.14 As shown, Path 1 requires a total of 45.76 million kilowatts of external electricity by 2060 (5 DC circuits are required); Path 2 requires a total of 61.76 million kilowatts of external electricity by 2060 (7 DC circuits are required) due to the small amount of coal-fired power installed capacity.

[0155] (IV) According to the method described in S410, the output coefficients of wind power, photovoltaic power, hydropower, and biomass under heavy load are calculated to be 0.05, 0, and 0.8 respectively. The output coefficients of coal power, gas power, and nuclear power under heavy load are all 1.0. According to the configuration of the power supply at the sending end, the output coefficient of external power is taken as 0.75. The values ​​of system reserve rate and load peak reduction rate refer to Fig.15 .

[0156] It has been confirmed that pumped storage and electrochemical energy storage installed capacity will be Fig.16 The operating life of electrochemical energy storage is set at 10 years, the configuration hours of electrochemical energy storage put into operation before 2040 are 2 hours, and the configuration hours of electrochemical energy storage put into operation after 2040 are 4 hours. The capacity efficiency coefficient of pumped storage and electrochemical energy storage is based on the different references of equivalent configuration hours and total installed capacity. Figure 1 The equivalent configuration hours and capacity efficiency coefficient of pumped storage and electrochemical energy storage are clearly shown in Fig.17 , Fig.18 .

[0157] According to S430, using the above-mentioned pumped storage and electrochemical energy storage capacity efficiency coefficients, the annual power gap can be calculated. Fig.19 The values ​​of each power source in the figure represent its annual power support capacity. The power gap should be borne by pumped storage and electrochemical energy storage. According to S440~470, the installation sequence of electrochemical energy storage and pumped storage can be generated according to the power gap. Fig. 20 The corresponding annual equivalent configuration hours and capacity efficiency coefficient are shown in Fig.21 and Fig. 22 .

[0158] (V) According to S510, the installed capacity sequences of various power sources and the predicted load time series, wind power, photovoltaic, biomass, hydropower, and nuclear power output time series obtained in S100 within the planning year interval are input into the 8760 power time series simulation software to calculate the annual wind curtailment rate. and light abandonment rate Taking into account the uncertainty of future load and power supply characteristics, this example only calculates the wind and solar power curtailment rates from 2024 to 2035.

[0159] Execute S520-530, set the upper limit of the power abandonment rate to 6.5%, and if the wind abandonment rate or solar abandonment rate is higher than this value, the pumped storage or energy storage installed capacity is corrected. In this example, the pumped storage installed capacity does not reach the resource upper limit, so there is no need to correct the electrochemical energy storage scale. The pumped storage correction results are shown in Tables 2 to 5.

[0160] Table 2 Pumped storage capacity correction table (Path 1, before S520 correction) Unit: 10,000 kW, hour

[0161] .

[0162] Table 3 Pumped storage capacity correction table (path 1, after correction according to S520) Unit: 10,000 kW, hour

[0163] .

[0164] Table 4 Pumped storage capacity correction table (Path 2, before S520 correction) Unit: 10,000 kW, hour

[0165] .

[0166] Table 5 Pumped storage capacity correction table (Path 2, after correction according to S520) Unit: 10,000 kW, hour

[0167] .

[0168] According to the S540 iterative calculation, the corrected generating hours do not affect the external power scale sequence, and the iteration is terminated. The generated installed capacity sequence of various power sources ( Figure 23 to Figure 26 ) is the configuration result.

[0169] In the specific operation of the present invention, the coal-fired power generation capacity sequence is formed by setting the coal-fired power generation path, the external power scale sequence is generated by the power balance and coal-fired power generation hours constraint, the pumped storage and electrochemical energy storage scale sequence is generated by the power balance constraint, and the calculated power installed capacity combination is input into the 8760 power timing simulation model, and the power configuration result is corrected by the consumption level constraint. Compared with the traditional method, the present invention integrates the power configuration method of the long time scale and the hourly time scale. The method can simultaneously meet the needs of system power support, coal-fired power transformation, new energy consumption, etc., and has great guiding significance for the power planning of new power systems.

[0170] The above is a detailed introduction to a multi-time scale power supply configuration method adapted to a new type of power system provided by the present invention. This article uses specific examples to illustrate the principles and implementation methods of the present invention. The description of the above embodiments is only used to help understand the core idea of ​​the present invention. It should be pointed out that for ordinary technicians in this technical field, without departing from the principle of the present invention, several improvements and modifications can be made to the present invention, and these improvements and modifications also fall within the scope of protection of the claims of the present invention.

Claims

1. A multi-time scale power supply configuration method adapted to a new power system, characterized in that: The method comprises the following steps: S100: Obtain the existing installed capacity and external power situation of the planning area, the commissioning time and installed capacity of each coal-fired power unit in the starting year, and the upper limit of the exploitable amount of various power sources; obtain the maximum load and power consumption year by year in the planning year interval, and the installed capacity and power generation hours of the confirmed power sources year by year; obtain the load time series, wind power, photovoltaic, biomass, hydropower, and nuclear power forecast output time series within the planning year interval; S200: Generate coal-fired power sequence: Set the peak installed capacity of coal-fired power, the service time of coal-fired power units, and the development ideas of coal-fired power. Set the ideas according to the scenarios to form the coal-fired power retirement sequence, production sequence, and installation sequence; S300: Generate external power demand through power balance and coal-fired power generation hours constraint: Calculate the annual power generation of the specified power source, consider the external power input in the previous year, and the remaining power gap will be borne by coal-fired power. If the coal-fired power generation hours in the current year exceed the upper limit, a new external power source will be introduced, thus forming an external power scale sequence and an external power input sequence; S400: Generate pumped storage and electrochemical energy storage demand through power balance constraints: Set the output coefficients of various power sources, among which pumped storage and electrochemical energy storage take corresponding efficiency coefficients according to the total installed capacity and configuration time each year; set the annual reserve rate and peak reduction rate, and calculate the annual power profit and loss situation based on the above output coefficients and efficiency coefficients. If there is a power gap, add pumped storage as needed. If the installed capacity of pumped storage has reached the upper limit of development, add electrochemical energy storage as needed; S500: Correct the installed power capacity by consuming level constraints: input the obtained installed power capacity into the power sequence simulation model. If the calculated wind and solar power abandonment rates are greater than the limit, then add pumped storage and electrochemical energy storage capacity until the wind and solar power abandonment rate limits are met. Use the corresponding wind and solar power abandonment rates after the correction of the pumped storage and electrochemical energy storage capacity as a reference to correct the annual wind power and photovoltaic power generation hours, and repeat iterations of S200-S400 until the external power scale series does not change. The annual power combination plan formed is the configuration result.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that S200 includes: S210: Set the peak installed capacity of coal-fired power to 2. Service life of large coal-fired power units 2. Service life of small coal-fired power units , calculate the retirement time of each unit according to the set service life, and then form a coal-fired power retirement sequence ; S220: Set the coal-fired power development mode. If the coal-fired power installed capacity constant mode is selected, when the coal-fired power installed capacity is lower than the coal-fired power peak installed capacity, When the new coal-fired power units with a capacity of 1 million are put into operation, the coal-fired power installed capacity put into operation in that year is expressed by the formula as follows: （1） In the formula, is the coal-fired power installed capacity put into operation in the nth year, rounddown is the downward rounding function, is the coal-fired power installed capacity in year n-1, The coal-fired power generation capacity that needs to be retired in the nth year; If the coal-fired power generation is phased out without subsidies, the annual coal-fired power generation capacity will be The coal power generation capacity sequence is formed by combining the coal power retirement sequence and the production sequence, as follows: （2） In the formula, The coal-fired power generation capacity in the nth year.

3. The method according to claim 2, characterized in that S300 includes: S310: Calculate the annual power generation of the identified power sources, including wind power, photovoltaic power, biomass, hydropower, gas power, and nuclear power, and include the power loss during the charging and discharging process of pumped storage and electrochemical energy storage into the power consumption. After considering the power input from external power in the previous year, the remaining power gap is borne by coal-fired power. Calculate the power required each year in addition to coal-fired power. The specific method for calculating coal-fired power generation is as follows: （3） In the formula, is the coal-fired power generation in year n, Plan the regional load power consumption for the nth year, , , , , , , , They are photovoltaic, wind power, biomass, hydropower, gas power, nuclear power, pumped storage, and electrochemical energy storage installed capacity in the nth year. , , , , , are the number of hours of power generation from photovoltaic, wind, biomass, hydropower, gas and nuclear power in the nth year, , They are the equivalent hours of charging and discharging losses of pumped storage and electrochemical energy storage installed capacity, The amount of electricity sent in from outside last year; S320: Calculate the number of coal-fired power generation hours based on coal-fired power generation, as follows: （4） In the formula, is the number of coal-fired power generation hours in year n; S330: Set an upper limit on coal-fired power generation hours ,like , then a new external power is added, and the external power scale sequence and external power quantity sequence are as follows: （5） （6） In the formula, , They are the external power scale in the nth year and the n-1th year respectively. is the scale of new external electricity in the nth year, , are the external power supply in the nth year and the n-1th year respectively, The amount of new external electricity transmitted in the nth year.

4. The method according to claim 3, characterized in that S400 includes: S410: Determine the output coefficients of various power sources under heavy load mode: Extract the predicted output time series of wind power, photovoltaic power, hydropower, and biomass under heavy load mode year by year, and sort them from small to large, and take the wind power output coefficients under heavy load mode year by year according to the 95% confidence interval principle , Photovoltaic output coefficient , Hydropower output coefficient , Biomass output coefficient ; Coal-fired power output coefficient under heavy load mode , Gas-electricity output coefficient , Nuclear power output coefficient Take 1.0 for both; external power output coefficient under heavy load mode The value is determined according to the power supply configuration at the sending end; S420: Define the support capacity of energy storage for the power system under large load mode as the energy storage capacity benefit, which integrates the energy storage installed capacity and equivalent configuration hours, and determines the pumped storage capacity benefit coefficient and electrochemical energy storage capacity efficiency coefficient ; S430: Calculate the annual electricity profit and loss as follows: （7） In the formula, is the electricity profit and loss result in the nth year. If the value is positive, it means there is a surplus of electricity, otherwise it means there is a deficit of electricity. is the planned regional maximum load in the nth year, , are the system reserve rate and load peak reduction rate respectively; S440: When The calculation method for the installed capacity of pumped storage put into operation in that year is as follows: （8） In the formula, The newly commissioned pumped storage capacity in the nth year; , The efficiency coefficient of pumped storage installed capacity and pumped storage capacity in year n-1 respectively; The upper limit of pumped storage development in the planning area is is the capacity of a typical pumped storage unit; roundup is the upward rounding function, and min is the minimum value function; S450: When and , that is, the scale of pumped storage development has reached the upper limit, and the calculation of electrochemical energy storage capacity put into operation that year is as follows: （9） In the formula, The newly commissioned electrochemical energy storage capacity in the nth year; is the electrochemical energy storage efficiency coefficient in the n-1th year; is the unit capacity of a typical electrochemical energy storage unit; S460: Generate the pumped storage capacity sequence and equivalent configuration hours based on the calculation results of S410 to S450 as follows: （10） In the formula, , are the equivalent deployment hours of pumped storage in year n and year n-1 respectively, is the configuration hours of the newly commissioned pumped storage in year n; S470: Generate the electrochemical energy storage installed capacity sequence and equivalent configuration hours according to the calculation results of S410 to S450 as follows: （11） In the formula, , are the equivalent configuration hours of electrochemical energy storage in year n and year n-1, respectively. is the configuration hours of the newly commissioned electrochemical energy storage in year n.

5. The method according to claim 4, characterized in that S500 includes: S510: Based on S100~S400, various power generation installed capacity sequences under the constraints of power balance and resource development upper limit are formed. The various power generation installed capacity sequences and the predicted load time series, wind power, photovoltaic, biomass, hydropower, and nuclear power predicted output time series within the planning year obtained in S100 are input into the 8760 power time series simulation software to calculate the annual wind curtailment rate. and light abandonment rate ; S520: Setting an upper limit on wind curtailment rate and upper limit of light abandonment rate , according to the annual wind curtailment rate and light abandonment rate Wind curtailment rate cap and upper limit of light abandonment rate The relationship between them is used to correct the installed capacity of pumped storage and electrochemical energy storage; S530: Using the annual wind power abandonment rate and solar power abandonment rate generated by S510 as a reference, the annual wind power and photovoltaic power generation hours are corrected as follows: （12） In the formula, , is the number of photovoltaic power generation hours in the nth year in the i+1th and ith iteration calculations; , is the number of wind power generation hours in the nth year in the i+1th and ith iteration calculations; and is the solar power curtailment rate and wind power curtailment rate in the nth year in the i-1th iteration calculation; S540: The number of generating hours of each type of power source obtained in S100 is used as the first iteration value. After executing S210~S530, the number of wind power and photovoltaic power generation hours in the i-th iteration calculation is corrected to form the number of wind power and photovoltaic power generation hours required for the i+1-th iteration; S200~S300 are repeated using the number of generating hours used in the i+1-th iteration to generate the external power scale sequence in the i+1-th iteration calculation value, and it is determined whether the correction of the number of generating hours affects the external power scale sequence. If the external power commissioning timing is not changed in this iteration, the iteration is terminated, and the final installed capacity sequence of each type of power source is formed, which is the configuration result.

6. The method according to claim 5, characterized in that S520 includes: like or , determine whether pumped storage has reached the upper limit of resource development If not, then add new pumped storage capacity If yes, then add electrochemical energy storage capacity , and returns to S510; like and , output corrected pumped storage installed capacity in year n 、Electrochemical energy storage installed , wind curtailment rate And the rate of abandoned light .

7. The method according to claim 6, characterized in that The S540 also includes: If the correction of the generating hours changes the timing of the external power supply in this iteration, the process returns to execute S210 to S530 for the next iteration. If the timing of the external power supply is not changed in the current iteration, the iteration is terminated, and the final configuration result is the sequence of the installed capacity of each type of power supply.

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