Evaluation method for vulnerability and adaptability of ecosystem in coastal zone under climate change

Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of coupling relation and linkage mechanism of coping with climate change and protecting biodiversity of a coastal zone region ecosystem, and discloses a method for evaluating vulnerability and adaptability of a coastal zone region ecosystem under climate change. According to the evaluation method, on the basis of comprehensively analyzing the service supply, demand and sensitivity of a typical ecosystem in a coastal zone, first-hand data information influencing the vulnerability and adaptability of the typical ecosystem is collected, and a climatic change and biodiversity database system including ecological footprints and influence factors is constructed; direct loss, indirect loss and complete transfer paths of biological diversity are clarified, a biological diversity loss model is constructed, vulnerability and adaptability of the typical ecosystem in the coastal zone are evaluated, and objective laws of biological diversity changes of the typical ecosystem in the coastal zone are studied and judged.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of the coupling relationship and linkage mechanism between the response of coastal ecosystems to climate change and the protection of biodiversity, and specifically to a method for assessing the vulnerability and adaptability of coastal ecosystems under climate change. Background Art

[0002] The ocean is an important "regulator" of climate change. Since the industrial age, the ocean has absorbed more than 90% of the excess heat generated by humans (caused by greenhouse gas emissions) and about 28% of the carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere, making it a major tool for mitigating climate change. However, the heat and carbon dioxide absorbed by the ocean have seriously damaged the ecological environment of the ocean, especially the coastal areas of islands or coastal areas: on the one hand, the warming of the sea water has destroyed the living environment of marine organisms, the number of phytoplankton has dropped by 40%, and half of the world's coral reefs have disappeared or are in a state of rapid decline. The deterioration or loss of habitat ecosystems has led to a downward trend in the distribution, abundance, and reproductive capacity of fish and invertebrates. The ecosystem in the coastal area is facing a serious problem of biodiversity loss, and the vulnerability of the ecosystem has increased; on the other hand, ocean acidification has weakened its original carbon sink capacity, resulting in a weakening of the ability of the coastal area ecosystem to mitigate climate change, and the ecosystem's adaptability needs to be improved.

[0003] However, there are currently few studies on the vulnerability and adaptability of ecosystems in coastal areas, and they mainly focus on the construction of indicator systems and comprehensive vulnerability evaluation. There are many difficulties in the research on the vulnerability and adaptability of ecosystems in coastal areas: first, there is a lack of sensitivity analysis of ecosystem services in coastal areas, making it difficult to determine the root causes of ecosystem vulnerability in coastal areas; second, there is a lack of corresponding data, making it difficult to clarify the loss and path of biodiversity affected by climate change in coastal areas; third, the research methods are relatively single, and it is difficult to quantitatively characterize the vulnerability and adaptability of ecosystems in coastal areas. Summary of the invention

[0004] In view of the deficiencies of the prior art, the present invention provides a method for assessing the vulnerability and adaptability of ecosystems in coastal areas under climate change, which solves the problems raised in the above-mentioned background technology.

[0005] To achieve the above objectives, the present invention is implemented by the following technical scheme: A method for assessing the vulnerability and adaptability of coastal ecosystems under climate change, specifically comprising the following steps:

[0006] S1, sensitivity analysis;

[0007] S2, database construction;

[0008] S3, design loss model;

[0009] S4. Vulnerability and adaptation assessment;

[0010] S5. Laws of evolution of biodiversity.

[0011] Preferably, the assessment method focuses on establishing a biodiversity database system for typical ecosystems in coastal areas to evaluate the vulnerability and adaptability of ecosystems in coastal areas under the influence of climate change. Comprehensively analyze the supply and demand and sensitivity of typical ecosystem services in coastal areas, collect first-hand data and information that affect the vulnerability and adaptability of typical ecosystems, build a climate change and biodiversity database system including ecological footprint and influencing factors, and publish it with the help of cloud technology; clarify the direct loss, indirect loss and complete transfer path of biodiversity, build a biodiversity loss model, explore the factors and effects of climate change on biodiversity loss, evaluate the vulnerability and adaptability of typical ecosystems in coastal areas, and study the objective laws of biodiversity changes in typical ecosystems in coastal areas.

[0012] Preferably, the main research methods specifically include multi-regional input-output model analysis method (MRIO), structural decomposition and panel data analysis method and spatial model and analysis method.

[0013] Preferably, the multi-regional input-output model analysis method quantifies the impact of climate change on biodiversity from the production side and the consumption side respectively by using the MRIO model, constructs a binary consistency matrix C including "country-biological species-threat cause" and standardizes it, sums up the biological species records by country on the rows of the C matrix, and then merges the matrix according to the biological species type after standardization, matches the number of threatened biological species with the specific industries that affect the biological species in each country, and calculates the direct threat caused by a specific production industry to biodiversity. Subsequently, the Leontief environmental extended input-output analysis method is used to calculate the biodiversity footprint F, and the formula is:

[0014]

[0015] Preferably, the structural decomposition and panel data analysis method decomposes the biodiversity footprint from the supply side and the consumption side respectively by using methods such as MRIO-SNA, MRIO-SDA, and the quadratic assignment problem (QAP); and uses panel econometric models such as the panel smooth transition model (PSTR) to analyze the main influencing factors of biodiversity loss.

[0016] Preferably, the spatial model and analysis method include using visualization analysis, spatial correlation analysis, spatial Durbin model, spatiotemporal transition measurement method and other methods to measure the spatial distribution and changing trend of biodiversity affected by climate change.

[0017] S1, sensitivity analysis;

[0018] S2, database construction;

[0019] S3, design loss model;

[0020] S4. Vulnerability and adaptation assessment;

[0021] S5. Laws of evolution of biodiversity.

[0022] The purpose of this method for assessing the vulnerability and adaptability of coastal ecosystems under climate change is to establish a biodiversity database system for typical coastal ecosystems to assess the vulnerability and adaptability of coastal ecosystems under the influence of climate change. First, a comprehensive analysis of the supply and demand relationship and sensitivity of typical ecosystem services in coastal areas is conducted. Using the International Common Principal Product Classification (CPC V1.0), the global multi-regional input-output table and Eora The GlobalMRIO database quantitatively describes the relationship between climate change, biodiversity and human production, consumption and other activities, constructs a climate change and biodiversity loss footprint database, deeply analyzes the economic, social, environmental and ecological factors that may affect biodiversity loss, and constructs a database of biodiversity influencing factors; secondly, taking the supply, demand and sensitivity measurement of typical ecosystem services in coastal areas as the technical path, comprehensively measures the impact of climate change on biodiversity loss from the perspectives of supply side / consumption side, intermediate products / final products, clarifies the direct loss, indirect loss and complete transfer path of species diversity, constructs a biodiversity loss model, incorporates climate change such as global warming and extreme weather events as core factors into the analysis framework, and explores the influencing factors of biodiversity loss under climate change; finally, analyzes the biodiversity loss effect, reveals the difference effect, structural effect, technical efficiency effect and technological progress effect of biodiversity loss under the influence of climate change, quantitatively evaluates the vulnerability and adaptability of ecosystems in coastal areas under the influence of climate change, analyzes the spatial distribution and changing trend of the impact of climate change on biodiversity, and studies the objective laws of biodiversity changes in ecosystems in coastal areas. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0023] Figure 1 It is a structural block diagram of the system principle of the present invention;

[0024] Figure 2 The figure is a flow chart of the working principle of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0025] The following will be combined with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention to clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0026] See also Figure 1 The embodiment of the present invention provides a technical solution: a method for assessing the vulnerability and adaptability of ecosystems in coastal areas under climate change, which specifically includes the following steps:

[0027] S1, sensitivity analysis;

[0028] S2, database construction;

[0029] S3, design loss model;

[0030] S4. Vulnerability and adaptation assessment;

[0031] S5. Laws of evolution of biodiversity.

[0032] The main contents include:

[0033] Analysis of supply, demand and sensitivity of typical ecosystem services in coastal areas;

[0034] Construction of a comprehensive database system for biodiversity in coastal areas under the influence of climate change;

[0035] Biodiversity loss model and influencing factors in coastal areas under the influence of climate change;

[0036] Assessment of vulnerability and adaptability of typical ecosystems in coastal areas under the influence of climate change;

[0037] The evolutionary laws and paths of biodiversity changes in typical ecosystems in coastal areas.

[0038] In this invention, the focus is on establishing a biodiversity database system for typical ecosystems in coastal areas, and realizing the assessment of the vulnerability and adaptability of ecosystems in coastal areas under the influence of climate change. Comprehensively analyze the supply and demand and sensitivity of typical ecosystem services in coastal areas, collect first-hand data and information that affect the vulnerability and adaptability of typical ecosystems, build a climate change and biodiversity database system including ecological footprint and influencing factors, and publish it with the help of cloud technology; clarify the direct loss, indirect loss and complete transfer path of biodiversity, build a biodiversity loss model, explore the factors and effects of climate change on biodiversity loss, assess the vulnerability and adaptability of typical ecosystems in coastal areas, and study the objective laws of biodiversity changes in typical ecosystems in coastal areas.

[0039] In the present invention, the main research methods specifically include multi-regional input-output model analysis method (MRIO), structural decomposition and panel data analysis method and spatial model and analysis method.

[0040] In the present invention, the multi-regional input-output model analysis method quantifies the impact of climate change on biodiversity from the production side and the consumption side respectively by using the MRIO model, constructs a binary consistency matrix C including "country-biological species-threat cause" and standardizes it, sums up the biological species records by country on the rows of the C matrix, and then merges the matrix according to the biological species type after standardization, matches the number of threatened biological species with the specific industries that affect the biological species in each country, and calculates the direct threat caused by a specific production industry to biodiversity. Subsequently, the Leontief environmental extended input-output analysis method is used to calculate the biodiversity footprint F, and the formula is:

[0041]

[0042] In this invention, structural decomposition and panel data analysis methods use MRIO-SNA, MRIO-SDA, quadratic assignment problem (QAP) and other methods to decompose the biodiversity footprint from the supply side and consumption side respectively; panel econometric models such as the panel smooth transition model (PSTR) are used to analyze the main influencing factors of biodiversity loss.

[0043] In the present invention, the spatial model and analysis method include the use of visualization analysis, spatial correlation analysis, spatial Durbin model, spatiotemporal transition measurement method and other methods to measure the spatial distribution and changing trend of biodiversity affected by climate change.

[0044] The present invention focuses on establishing a biodiversity database system for typical ecosystems in coastal areas, and realizing the assessment of the vulnerability and adaptability of ecosystems in coastal areas under the influence of climate change. First, based on a comprehensive analysis of the supply and demand relationship and sensitivity status of typical ecosystem services in coastal areas, species records of the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, as well as species with three different threat levels of critically endangered, endangered, and vulnerable, are collected and distinguished; detailed information on the causes of threats to 82 biological species such as pollution and climate change is screened, and threats unrelated to human factors such as species invasions and natural disasters are excluded; with the help of the International Common Principal Product Classification (CPC V1.0), the Global Multi-Region Input-Output Table and EoraGlobal Based on the MRIO database, a binary consistency matrix of "country-biological species-threat cause" is constructed to match the threat cause with the product, sector, and endangered species, quantitatively characterize the relationship between climate change, biodiversity, and human production and consumption activities, and construct a climate change and biodiversity loss footprint database; in-depth analysis of economic, social, environmental, and ecological factors that may affect species diversity loss, combined with natural factors that affect species transfer, to construct a database of biodiversity influencing factors; using tools such as PostgreSQL and Oracle and technologies such as Hadoop, Hbase, Hive, and Spark, a species diversity database system for typical ecosystems in coastal areas is designed and established, providing theoretical and data support for quantitative assessment of the vulnerability and adaptability of ecosystems in coastal areas under the influence of climate change.

[0045] Subsequently, the present invention takes the supply, demand and sensitivity measurement of typical ecosystem services in coastal areas as the technical path, comprehensively measures the impact of climate change on biodiversity loss from the perspectives of supply side / consumption side, intermediate products / final products, and clarifies the direct loss, indirect loss and complete transfer path of species diversity; uses the HOV theory to construct a biodiversity loss model, incorporates climate change such as global warming and extreme weather events as core factors into the analysis framework, and uses the panel smooth transition model (PSTR) to explore the influencing factors of biodiversity loss under climate change; focuses on the inherent theoretical mechanism of biodiversity loss, uses a random dynamic equilibrium model to analyze the biodiversity loss effect, reveals the difference effect, structural effect, technical efficiency effect and technological progress effect of biodiversity loss under the influence of climate change, quantitatively evaluates the vulnerability and adaptability of ecosystems in coastal areas under the influence of climate change, uses spatial models and analysis methods to analyze the spatial distribution and changing trends of the impact of climate change on biodiversity, and studies the objective laws of biodiversity changes in ecosystems in coastal areas.

Claims

1. A method for assessing the vulnerability and adaptability of coastal ecosystems under climate change, characterized by: The evaluation method specifically comprises the following steps: S1, sensitivity analysis; S2, database construction; S3, design loss model; S4. Vulnerability and adaptation assessment; S5. Laws of evolution of biodiversity.

2. The method for assessing the vulnerability and adaptability of coastal ecosystems under climate change according to claim 1, characterized in that: The focus of the assessment method is to establish a biodiversity database system for typical ecosystems in coastal areas, and to evaluate the vulnerability and adaptability of ecosystems in coastal areas under the influence of climate change. Comprehensively analyze the supply and demand and sensitivity of typical ecosystem services in coastal areas, collect first-hand data and information that affect the vulnerability and adaptability of typical ecosystems, build a climate change and biodiversity database system including ecological footprint and influencing factors, and publish it with the help of cloud technology; clarify the direct loss, indirect loss and complete transfer path of biodiversity, build a biodiversity loss model, explore the factors and effects of climate change on biodiversity loss, evaluate the vulnerability and adaptability of typical ecosystems in coastal areas, and study the objective laws of biodiversity changes in typical ecosystems in coastal areas.

3. The method for assessing the vulnerability and adaptability of coastal ecosystems under climate change according to claim 1, characterized in that: The main research methods specifically include multi-regional input-output model analysis method (MRIO), structural decomposition and panel data analysis method, and spatial model and analysis method.

4. The method for assessing the vulnerability and adaptability of coastal ecosystems under climate change according to claim 3 is characterized by: The multi-regional input-output model analysis method uses the MRIO model to quantitatively assess the impact of climate change on biodiversity from the production side and the consumption side, constructs a binary consistency matrix C including "country-biological species-threat cause" and standardizes it. The biological species records are summed up by country on the rows of the C matrix. After standardization, the matrix is ​​merged according to the biological species type. The number of threatened biological species is matched with the specific industries that affect the biological species in each country, and the direct threat caused by a specific production industry to biodiversity is calculated. Subsequently, the Leontief environmental extended input-output analysis method is used to calculate the biodiversity footprint F, and the formula is:

5. The method for assessing the vulnerability and adaptability of coastal ecosystems under climate change according to claim 3, characterized in that: The structural decomposition and panel data analysis method decomposes the biodiversity footprint from the supply side and consumption side respectively by using methods such as MRIO-SNA, MRIO-SDA, and quadratic assignment problem (QAP); and uses panel econometric models such as the panel smooth transition model (PSTR) to analyze the main influencing factors of biodiversity loss.

6. The method for assessing the vulnerability and adaptability of coastal ecosystems under climate change according to claim 3, characterized in that: The spatial model and analysis method include the use of visualization analysis, spatial correlation analysis, spatial Durbin model, space-time transition measurement method and other methods to measure the spatial distribution and changing trend of biodiversity affected by climate change.

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