Explosive cyclone identification and analysis system

Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of cyclone identification, in particular to an explosive cyclone identification and analysis system which comprises a cyclone path tracking model, an identification and analysis module, a tracking and analysis module, a region analysis module and a danger analysis module. According to the method, the generated cyclones can be identified and tracked, so that the explosive cyclones can be identified and analyzed, selective early warning can be carried out on the target areas at different positions and under different conditions according to the arrival time of the explosive cyclones and influence data on the target areas, different early warning signals are generated, and the early warning efficiency is improved. Therefore, the purpose of explosive cyclone monitoring data is enriched, different early warning measures are taken more reasonably and conveniently according to different regionalities, and the problem that an identification and analysis system in the prior art cannot make comprehensive judgment by combining terrain conditions of passing regions and the influence degree of human living environment factors on the cyclone is solved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The invention relates to the technical field of cyclone identification, and in particular to an explosive cyclone identification and analysis system. Background Art

[0002] Explosive cyclone, also known as "Meteorological bomb", is a typical representative of extreme weather system at sea. In a short period of time, the central pressure drops sharply, the wind speed increases sharply (the wind speed can quickly reach more than 30m / s), and is accompanied by heavy precipitation or blizzards and other disastrous weather. It is considered to be one of the most harmful weather systems in mid-latitudes, causing serious damage to coastal production and life and marine activities. At present, scholars generally define the temperate cyclone as an explosive cyclone when the sea level pressure (geostrophically adjusted to 60°N) at the center of the cyclone drops by more than 24hPa within 24 hours.

[0003] On the one hand, the identification and analysis of explosive cyclones can help scholars study the occurrence and development laws of explosive cyclones. On the other hand, it can be applied in the field of weather forecasting to help weather warning departments to issue disaster warnings. Although the identification and analysis of explosive cyclones in the existing technology can predict the movement path of the cyclone, thereby issuing disaster warnings for the passing areas, it is unable to make a comprehensive judgment on the impact of the terrain conditions and human living environment factors on the explosive cyclones in the passing areas, and make different warning options based on regional differences, and there are certain defects. Summary of the invention

[0004] In view of the above-mentioned shortcomings of the prior art, the present invention provides an explosive cyclone identification and analysis system, which can effectively solve the problem that the identification and analysis system in the prior art cannot make a comprehensive judgment on the impact of the explosive cyclone based on the terrain conditions of the passing area and the human living environment factors.

[0005] To achieve the above objectives, the present invention is implemented through the following technical solutions:

[0006] The present invention provides an explosive cyclone identification and analysis system, including a cyclone path tracking model, and further comprising: an identification and analysis module, a tracking and analysis module, a regional analysis module, a comprehensive analysis module, and an early warning generation module;

[0007] The identification and analysis module analyzes and identifies cyclones and screens out explosive cyclones by calculating the sea level pressure deepening rate;

[0008] The tracking and analysis module obtains the moving path of the explosive cyclone and the curve of the deepening rate changing with time, draws a three-dimensional bar graph of the deepening rate changing with time on the map as a three-dimensional graph of the deepening rate changing, sets a deepening rate influence value, sets four range intervals, assigns a value to the deepening rate influence value according to the range interval to which the deepening rate belongs, and marks the bottom position of each column in the three-dimensional bar graph, so as to obtain a deepening rate influence value position change graph;

[0009] The regional analysis module divides the air pressure monitoring area into multiple target areas. The regional analysis module includes a historical analysis unit and a real-time analysis unit. The historical analysis unit statistically analyzes the three-dimensional graph of the deepening rate changes of explosive cyclones that have occurred in history, and obtains the frequency of the maximum deepening rate in different target areas as the maximum frequency reference value of the target area. The real-time analysis unit analyzes the terrain data and personnel and building data in different target areas to obtain the impact reference value and analyzes the risk parameters in each target area in combination with the frequency of the maximum deepening rate.

[0010] The comprehensive analysis module records the currently identified explosive cyclone as the target monitoring cyclone, predicts the path and moving speed of the target monitoring cyclone through the cyclone path tracking model, records the target area predicted to pass through as the future passing area, and binds the target areas of each non-future passing area to the nearest future passing area to form multiple sets of passing influence areas and conduct independent analysis to obtain the cyclone influence value and prediction deviation value of each target area;

[0011] The warning generation module generates different warning signals according to the cyclone impact value and prediction deviation value of each target area.

[0012] Furthermore, the identification and analysis module identifies the following specific steps:

[0013] S1: Divide the air pressure monitoring area into multiple unit areas, the longitude and latitude of each unit area are equal to L, and L is less than or equal to 0.25°. Divide multiple identification areas in the air pressure monitoring area, the longitude and latitude of each identification area are 20L, obtain the lowest sea level pressure of all unit areas in the identification area, and record it as The lowest sea level pressure threshold P' is preset. When the lowest sea level pressure in the identification area is When it is less than the minimum threshold value P′ of sea level pressure, S2 is performed on the identified area;

[0014] S2: while monitoring the air pressure in the unit area, calculate the air pressure gradient in the identification area, obtain the maximum value of the air pressure gradient in the identification area, compare the maximum value of the air pressure gradient with a preset gradient threshold, and when the maximum value of the air pressure gradient is greater than or equal to the preset gradient threshold, record the identification area as a cyclone area, record the cyclone in the cyclone area as a target cyclone, and perform S3 on the cyclone area;

[0015] S3: When the cyclone area and its surrounding identification areas have not been recorded as cyclone areas in the previous 6 hours, the recording time of the cyclone area is recorded as the generation time of the target cyclone, and the cyclone area is recorded as the generation area. All cyclone areas that appear within 6 hours are recorded with the generation time as the time starting point, and the time interval of each cyclone area is recorded. S4 is performed on any two cyclone areas in any two adjacent time intervals;

[0016] S4: The cyclones corresponding to two of the cyclone regions are recorded as cyclone A and cyclone B respectively. Let t-△t and t be the data acquisition time of cyclone A and cyclone B respectively, △t is the time interval between the two acquisitions, and let the distance between cyclone A at time t-△t and cyclone B at time t be △d. When the following conditions are met between the two cyclones, the two cyclones are recorded as the same cyclone:

[0017] (1) △t≤24 hours;

[0018] (2) Cyclone B at time t is the cyclone closest to cyclone A at time t-△t;

[0019] (3) The cyclone's moving speed is less than 40 m / s;

[0020] (4) △d<△dmax, △dmax=Max(500km,3×△t×Vprev), Max(500km,3×△t×Vprev) represents the maximum value between 500km and 3×△t×Vprev, Vprev is the moving speed of cyclone A during the period t-2△t~t-△t, (5) the angle between the moving direction of cyclone A during the period t-2△t~t-△t and its moving direction during the period t-△t~t must be within a preset angle range (0-90° in a specific embodiment);

[0021] S5: If the cyclones corresponding to all cyclone areas belong to the same cyclone, the corresponding target cyclone will be recorded as a persistent cyclone. The position of the lowest pressure point corresponding to the persistent cyclone will be recorded regularly, and the moving trajectory of the lowest point will be plotted as the cyclone moving path. The deepening rate of the persistent cyclone over time is obtained. When there is a curve portion in the curve that is greater than or equal to the deepening rate threshold, the persistent cyclone will be recorded as an explosive cyclone.

[0022] Furthermore, the tracking and analysis module assigns a value to the deepening rate impact value as follows:

[0023] Four range intervals are set according to the size of the deepening rate, namely the first range interval [1,1.3), the second range interval [1.3,1.7), the third range interval [1.7,2.2), and the fourth range interval (2.2,+∞). When the deepening rate is within the first range interval, the deepening rate influence value is assigned to 1, when the deepening rate is within the first range interval, the deepening rate influence value is assigned to 2, when the deepening rate is within the first range interval, the deepening rate influence value is assigned to 3, and when the deepening rate is within the first range interval, the deepening rate influence value is assigned to 4.

[0024] Furthermore, the specific analysis process of the history analysis unit is as follows:

[0025] A data collection time interval T is set, and the data of each explosive cyclone that occurred in the past T years are extracted and recorded as historical cyclone data. The three-dimensional graph of the deepening rate change corresponding to all historical cyclone data is drawn in the same spatial distribution map through the tracking and analysis module. The position where the maximum deepening rate appears in each three-dimensional graph of deepening rate change is extracted and recorded as the maximum point. The maximum point is marked in the spatial distribution map, and the number of maximum points in each target area in the spatial distribution map is counted and recorded as the maximum frequency reference value of the target area.

[0026] Furthermore, the real-time analysis unit analyzes the influence reference value as follows:

[0027] The target area is classified according to the proportion of ocean in the target area, which is divided into all-sea area, sea-land area and all-land area. When the proportion of ocean in the target area is equal to 0, it is recorded as all-land area. When the proportion of ocean in the target area is equal to 1, it is recorded as all-sea area. When the proportion of ocean in the target area is greater than 0 and less than 1, it is recorded as sea-land area. Different analysis methods are used according to the different types of target areas to calculate the impact reference value within the area.

[0028] Furthermore, the calculation process of the impact reference value is as follows:

[0029] When the target area is the entire land area, obtain the number of permanent residents, the proportion of residential building area, the average height of buildings, and the contour map with a gradient of 50m in the target area, calculate the total length of contour lines of different heights in the contour map, preset an absolute value of height H, H is greater than or equal to 50M, calculate the total length of contour lines in the interval (-∞,-H], [H,+∞] respectively, and record them as l - , l + , obtain the lowest altitude, highest altitude and average altitude in the target area, denoted as h min 、h max , Will l - , l +、h min 、h max , Substitute into the formula for calculation to obtain the terrain reference value of the target area where ρ 1 , 2 are all preset weight factors, extracting the number of permanent residents in the target area α RK , Residential building area ratio α JZ , average building height α LT , and α DX After normalization, enter the formula Calculate the influence reference value β of the target area, where K 1 , K 2 , K 3 All are preset weight factors;

[0030] When the target area is the entire sea area, obtain the number of ships j and the displacement Dv of each ship within the target area. i And the distance S between the center point of the target area and the coastline, substitute it into the formula Calculate the impact reference value β of the target area, where G 1 , G 2 , G 3 All are preset weight factors;

[0031] When the target area is a land-sea area, obtain the ocean proportion P, the number of ships m, and the displacement Dv of each ship in the target area. n , Resident population Residential building area ratio Average building height Substitute into the formula Calculation is performed in order to obtain the influence reference value β of the target area.

[0032] Furthermore, the comprehensive analysis module constructs the impact area set in detail as follows:

[0033] Extract all deepening rate influence values ​​in the current target area from the deepening rate influence value position change diagram of the target cyclone, assign values, and calculate their average value to obtain the real-time deepening parameter. The time required for the target monitoring cyclone to reach each future passing area is recorded as the arrival time of the future passing area. The calculation formula is: Where S represents the path distance of the target monitoring cyclone to each future passing area, and v represents the moving speed of the target monitoring cyclone;

[0034] The minimum value of the distance between each target area and each future passing area is obtained and recorded as the closest distance value Dl minAnd bind the target areas of each non-future passing area to the nearest future passing area respectively to form multiple passing influence area sets.

[0035] Furthermore, the analysis process of the set of passing impact areas is as follows:

[0036] Extract the influence reference value β and the closest distance value Dl of each target area that is not a future passing area min As well as the real-time deepening parameter BT of the explosive cyclone and the maximum frequency reference value Pc of the future passing area max , substitute into the formula Calculate the cyclone impact value U for each target area in the set of affected areas, where ε 1 is the default value;

[0037] Extract the arrival time t of the future passing area and substitute it into the formula Calculation is performed in order to obtain the predicted deviation value W of the impact value of each cyclone in the set of affected areas, where f is the maximum prediction time.

[0038] Furthermore, the warning generation module obtains the cyclone impact value and predicted deviation value of each target area, sets a deviation threshold and an impact threshold respectively, and generates an impact warning signal when the cyclone impact value is greater than the impact threshold; and generates an evacuation warning signal when the cyclone impact value is greater than the impact threshold and the predicted deviation value is less than the deviation threshold.

[0039] Compared with the known prior art, the technical solution provided by the present invention has the following beneficial effects:

[0040] 1. On the one hand, the present invention can monitor the cyclones appearing in the air pressure monitoring area in real time through the identification and analysis module, and can quickly and efficiently identify explosive cyclones in the uninterrupted periodic monitoring process, thereby facilitating the staff to make timely responses to the explosive cyclones. On the other hand, the tracking and analysis module draws a three-dimensional graph of the deepening rate change, so that it can be clearly observed at what position the explosive cyclone has produced explosive enhancement, so as to evaluate the impact range and degree of the explosive cyclone, and facilitate the staff to conduct statistical analysis of historical data to discover the generation and movement laws of explosive cyclones. It can also be analyzed based on the current real-time captured explosive cyclone related data, thereby realizing dynamic monitoring and tracking analysis.

[0041] 2. The present invention divides the region through the regional analysis module, thereby realizing regional analysis, narrowing the analysis scope, and improving the prediction accuracy. The historical analysis unit and the real-time analysis unit are combined. On the one hand, the historical analysis unit is used to analyze the occurrence pattern of historical explosive cyclones. On the other hand, the real-time analysis unit is used to judge the degree of impact of the cyclone on the production and life in the region according to the environmental conditions in the region, and then the risk parameters for assessing the risk level in the region are obtained. The comprehensive analysis module can integrate the various data analyzed by the system and calculate the cyclone impact value reflecting the real-time impact of the cyclone and the prediction deviation value reflecting the accuracy of the predicted cyclone impact based on the predicted movement route of the explosive cyclone.

[0042] 3. The present invention selectively warns target areas in different locations and situations through the arrival time of cyclones and the impact data on target areas, generates different warning signals, and thus enriches the use of explosive cyclone monitoring data, and then more reasonably and conveniently adopts different warning measures according to different regional characteristics. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0043] In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings required for use in the embodiments or the prior art descriptions are briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present invention, and for ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without creative work.

[0044] Figure 1 It is the overall module block diagram of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0045] In order to make the purpose, technical solution and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention clearer, the technical solution in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0046] The present invention will be further described below in conjunction with the embodiments.

[0047] See also Figure 1 , an explosive cyclone identification and analysis system, comprising at least: a cyclone path tracking model, and also including an identification and analysis module, a tracking and analysis module, a regional analysis module, and a comprehensive analysis module;

[0048] There is a preset air pressure monitoring area. The identification and analysis module regularly monitors and records the airflow data in the air pressure monitoring area. Through data analysis, cyclones are identified and continuous explosive cyclones are screened out. The specific steps are as follows:

[0049] S1: Divide the air pressure monitoring area into multiple unit areas, the longitude and latitude of each unit area are equal to L, and L is less than or equal to 0.25°. Divide multiple identification areas in the air pressure monitoring area, the longitude and latitude of each identification area are 20L, obtain the lowest sea level pressure of all unit areas in the identification area, and record it as The lowest sea level pressure threshold P' is preset. When the lowest sea level pressure in the identification area is When it is less than the minimum threshold value P′ of sea level pressure, S2 is performed on the identified area;

[0050] S2: while obtaining the minimum value of the sea level pressure, calculate the pressure gradient in the identification area, obtain the maximum value of the pressure gradient in the identification area, compare the maximum value of the pressure gradient with a preset gradient threshold, and when the maximum value of the pressure gradient is greater than or equal to the preset gradient threshold, record the identification area as a cyclone area, record the cyclone in the cyclone area as a target cyclone, and perform S3 on the cyclone area;

[0051] S3: When the cyclone area and its surrounding identification areas (multiple identification areas surrounding the cyclone area) have not been recorded as cyclone areas in the previous 6 hours, the recording time of the cyclone area (the time when the identification area is recorded as a cyclone area) is recorded as the generation time of the target cyclone, and the cyclone area is recorded as the generation area. All cyclone areas that appear within 6 hours are recorded with the generation time as the time starting point, and the time interval of each cyclone area is recorded. S4 is performed on any two cyclone areas in any two adjacent time intervals;

[0052] S4: The cyclones corresponding to two of the cyclone regions are recorded as cyclone A and cyclone B respectively. Let t-△t and t be the data acquisition time of cyclone A and cyclone B respectively, △t is the time interval between the two acquisitions, and let the distance between cyclone A at time t-△t and cyclone B at time t be △d. When the following conditions are met between the two cyclones, the two cyclones are recorded as the same cyclone:

[0053] (1) △t≤24 hours;

[0054] (2) Cyclone B at time t is the cyclone closest to cyclone A at time t-△t;

[0055] (3) The cyclone's moving speed is less than 40 m / s;

[0056] (4) △d<△dmax, △dmax=Max(500km,3×△t×Vprev), Max(500km,3×△t×Vprev) represents the maximum value between 500km and 3×△t×Vprev, Vprev is the moving speed of cyclone A during the period t-2△t~t-△t, (5) the angle between the moving direction of cyclone A during the period t-2△t~t-△t and its moving direction during the period t-△t~t must be within a preset angle range (0-90° in a specific embodiment);

[0057] S5: If the cyclones corresponding to all cyclone areas belong to the same cyclone, the corresponding target cyclone will be recorded as a persistent cyclone. The position of the lowest pressure point corresponding to the persistent cyclone will be recorded regularly, and the moving trajectory of the lowest point will be plotted as the cyclone moving path. The deepening rate of the persistent cyclone over time is obtained. When there is a curve portion in the curve that is greater than or equal to the deepening rate threshold, the persistent cyclone will be recorded as an explosive cyclone.

[0058] It should be noted that, in a specific embodiment, the deepening rate represents the rate at which the sea level pressure at the center of the cyclone decreases over time, and can be obtained by dividing the pressure difference in a certain time period by the length of the time period.

[0059] The identification and analysis module can not only monitor the cyclones occurring in the air pressure monitoring area in real time, but also quickly and efficiently identify explosive cyclones during the uninterrupted periodic monitoring process, thereby facilitating the staff to make timely responses to explosive cyclones.

[0060] The tracking and analysis module obtains the moving path of the explosive cyclone and the curve of the deepening rate changing with time. With the center position of the explosive cyclone at a certain moment as the two-dimensional coordinate and the deepening rate as the height, a three-dimensional bar graph of the deepening rate changing with time is drawn on the map as a three-dimensional graph of the deepening rate changing. Through the three-dimensional graph of the deepening rate changing, it can be clearly observed at what position the explosive cyclone has produced explosive enhancement, so as to evaluate the impact range and degree of the explosive cyclone, set the deepening rate impact value, and assign the deepening rate impact value according to the deepening rate value. The specific assignment process is as follows:

[0061] Four range intervals are set according to the size of the deepening rate, namely the first range interval [1,1.3), the second range interval [1.3,1.7), the third range interval [1.7,2.2), and the fourth range interval (2.2,+∞). When the deepening rate is within the first range interval, the deepening rate influence value is assigned to 1, when the deepening rate is within the first range interval, the deepening rate influence value is assigned to 2, when the deepening rate is within the first range interval, the deepening rate influence value is assigned to 3, and when the deepening rate is within the first range interval, the deepening rate influence value is assigned to 4.

[0062] According to the assignment of the deepening rate influence value, the bottom position of each column in the three-dimensional bar graph is marked to obtain a deepening rate influence value position change graph.

[0063] It should be noted that the tracking and analysis module can analyze the movement paths and deepening rate curves of past explosive cyclones over time, and draw a three-dimensional graph of the deepening rate changes of historical explosive cyclones, so as to facilitate staff to conduct statistical analysis of historical data and discover the generation and movement patterns of explosive cyclones. It can also analyze the relevant data of explosive cyclones captured in real time, thereby realizing dynamic monitoring and tracking analysis.

[0064] The regional analysis module divides the air pressure monitoring area into multiple M°×M° target areas, where M is less than or equal to 5. The regional analysis module includes a historical analysis unit and a real-time analysis unit. The historical analysis unit performs statistical analysis on the three-dimensional graph of the deepening rate changes of all explosive cyclones that have occurred in the air pressure monitoring area within a certain time range in the past, extracts the location of the maximum deepening rate of each explosive cyclone, and then obtains the frequency of the explosive cyclone reaching the maximum deepening rate when passing through different target areas. The real-time analysis unit collects and analyzes the terrain data and personnel and building data in the current different target areas, obtains the impact reference values ​​in different target areas, and analyzes the risk parameters in each target area in combination with the frequency of the maximum deepening rate.

[0065] The specific analysis process of the historical analysis unit is as follows:

[0066] A data collection time interval T is set, and the data of each explosive cyclone that occurred in the past T years are extracted and recorded as historical cyclone data. The three-dimensional graph of the deepening rate change corresponding to all historical cyclone data is drawn in the same spatial distribution map through the tracking and analysis module. The position where the maximum deepening rate appears in each three-dimensional graph of deepening rate change is extracted and recorded as the maximum point. The maximum point is marked in the spatial distribution map, and the number of maximum points in each target area in the spatial distribution map is counted and recorded as the maximum frequency reference value of the target area.

[0067] It should be noted that the maximum frequency reference value can reflect the degree of influence of the locations of different target areas on the passing explosive cyclones. The larger the maximum frequency reference value of a target area, the greater the possibility that the explosive cyclone will experience explosive intensification when passing through the target area, and therefore the greater the destructiveness caused to the area. Conversely, it means that the possibility that the explosive cyclone will experience explosive intensification when passing through the target area is smaller, and it will not cause further damage to the original intensity of the cyclone.

[0068] The analysis process of the real-time analysis unit on the influence reference value is as follows:

[0069] The target area is classified according to the proportion of ocean in the target area (the ocean area in the target area divided by the total area of ​​the target area), and is divided into the whole ocean area, the sea-land area and the whole land area. When the proportion of ocean in the target area is equal to 0, it is recorded as the whole land area. When the proportion of ocean in the target area is equal to 1, it is recorded as the whole ocean area. When the proportion of ocean in the target area is greater than 0 and less than 1, it is recorded as the sea-land area. Different analysis methods are used according to different types of target areas to calculate the impact reference value within the area;

[0070] When the target area is a land area, obtain the number of permanent residents in the target area, the proportion of residential building area (the proportion of residential building area refers to the value obtained by dividing the total area of ​​residential buildings and self-built houses registered in the target area by the total area of ​​the target area), the average height of the building, and the contour map with a gradient of 50m. Calculate the total length of contour lines of different heights in the contour map, preset an absolute value of height H, H is greater than or equal to 50M, calculate the total length of contour lines in the interval (-∞,-H], [H,+∞] respectively, and record them as l - , l + , obtain the lowest altitude, highest altitude and average altitude in the target area, denoted as h min 、h max , Will l - , l + 、h min 、h max , Substitute into the formula for calculation to obtain the terrain reference value of the target area where ρ 1 , 2 are all preset weight factors, α DX It can reflect the terrain conditions in the target area. DX The larger the value, the more complex the terrain in the target area, the greater the difference in terrain height, the greater the terrain undulation, the more mountains and basins there are, and therefore the better the effect of reducing the cyclone intensity. DX The smaller it is, the flatter the terrain in the target area is, and the more destructive the cyclone will cause when passing through the area;

[0071] Furthermore, the number of permanent residents in the target area is extracted RK , Residential building area ratio α JZ , average building height α LT , and α DX After normalization, enter the formula Calculate the influence reference value β of the target area, where K 1 , K 2 , K3 All are preset weight factors;

[0072] When the target area is the entire sea area, obtain the number of ships j and the displacement Dv of each ship within the target area. i (tonnage) and the distance S between the center of the target area and the coastline, substitute into the formula Calculate the impact reference value β of the target area, where G 1 , G 2 , G 3 All are preset weight factors;

[0073] When the target area is a land-sea area, obtain the ocean proportion P, the number of ships m, and the displacement Dv of each ship in the target area. n , Resident population Residential building area ratio Average building height Substitute into the formula Calculation is performed in order to obtain the influence reference value β of the target area.

[0074] It should be noted that the impact reference value indirectly reflects the degree of impact of an explosive cyclone on human activities and property in the target area when it passes through the target area. If the impact reference value β is larger, it means that the impact range may be wider and the destructiveness may be stronger when the explosive cyclone passes through the target area, and the losses caused will be correspondingly greater. If the impact reference value β is smaller, it means that the impact of the explosive cyclone on human life when it passes through the target area, and the losses caused will be correspondingly greater. Therefore, the impact reference value can help staff judge the regional impact caused by the passage of an explosive cyclone, and then make different levels of responses according to the degree of impact, so as to reduce personal injury and property losses when an explosive cyclone arrives.

[0075] The comprehensive analysis module records the currently identified explosive cyclone as the target monitoring cyclone, and uses the tracking model in the prior art to make real-time predictions on the path and moving speed of the target monitoring cyclone, obtains a three-dimensional graph of the deepening rate change of the target monitoring cyclone and the current target area, extracts all deepening rate influence values ​​in the current target area in the deepening rate influence value position change graph of the target monitoring cyclone, assigns values, and calculates their average value to obtain the real-time deepening parameter, and records the target area that the target monitoring cyclone is predicted to pass through as the future passing area. According to the moving speed of the target monitoring cyclone and the path distance to each future passing area, the time required for the target monitoring cyclone to reach each future passing area is calculated and recorded as the arrival time of the future passing area. The calculation formula is: (The arrival time is corrected in time according to the real-time predicted route and speed), where S represents the path distance of the target monitoring cyclone to each future passing area, and v represents the moving speed of the target monitoring cyclone.

[0076] Further, the minimum value of the distance between each target area and each future passing area (the distance between the center point of the target area and the center point of the future passing area) is obtained and recorded as the closest distance value D1. min , and bind the target areas of each non-future passing area to the nearest future passing area to form multiple passing area sets. The total number of passing area sets is the same as the number of future passing areas, and each passing area set contains a future passing area and multiple target areas of non-future passing areas. Each passing area set is analyzed independently, and the analysis process is as follows:

[0077] Extract the influence reference value β and the closest distance value Dl of each target area that is not a future passing area min As well as the real-time deepening parameter BT of the explosive cyclone and the maximum frequency reference value Pc of the future passing area max , substitute into the formula Calculate the cyclone impact value U for each target area in the set of affected areas, where ε 1 is the default value;

[0078] It should be noted that the cyclone impact value indirectly reflects the degree of impact that an explosive cyclone will have on the target area when passing through the predicted path. By combining the maximum frequency reference value of the future passing area, that is, the probability of explosive enhancement when the explosive cyclone passes, it is possible to better predict the impact of the explosive cyclone on the target area. The larger the cyclone impact value, the greater the possible damage, and vice versa.

[0079] Extract the arrival time t of the future passing area and substitute it into the formula Calculation is performed in order to obtain the predicted deviation value W of the impact value of each cyclone in the set of affected areas, where f is the maximum prediction time.

[0080] It should be noted that the prediction deviation value is affected by the arrival time. The longer the arrival time, the greater the corresponding prediction deviation, and the corresponding prediction deviation value tends to be close to 1. Conversely, the smaller the prediction deviation value, the higher the accuracy of predicting the impact of the cyclone.

[0081] The early warning generation module obtains the cyclone impact value and predicted deviation value of each target area, and sets a deviation threshold and an impact threshold respectively. When the cyclone impact value is greater than the impact threshold, an impact warning signal is generated. When the cyclone impact value is greater than the impact threshold and the predicted deviation value is less than the deviation threshold, an evacuation warning signal is generated. Through the arrival time of the cyclone and the impact data on each target area, selective early warning is carried out for each target area in different locations and under different conditions, and different early warning signals are generated, thereby enriching the use of explosive cyclone monitoring data, and then more reasonably and conveniently taking different early warning measures according to different regional characteristics.

[0082] The above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention, rather than to limit it. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the aforementioned embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that they can still modify the technical solutions described in the aforementioned embodiments, or make equivalent replacements for some of the technical features therein. However, these modifications or replacements will not cause the essence of the corresponding technical solutions to deviate from the protection scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention.

Claims

1. An explosive cyclone identification and analysis system, including a cyclone path tracking model, characterized in that: Also includes: Identification and analysis module, tracking and analysis module, regional analysis module, comprehensive analysis module, and early warning generation module; The identification and analysis module analyzes and identifies cyclones and selects explosive cyclones by calculating the sea level pressure deepening rate; The tracking and analysis module obtains the moving path of the explosive cyclone and the curve of the deepening rate changing with time, draws a three-dimensional bar graph of the deepening rate changing with time on the map as a three-dimensional graph of the deepening rate changing, sets a deepening rate influence value, sets four range intervals, assigns a value to the deepening rate influence value according to the range interval to which the deepening rate belongs, and marks the bottom position of each column in the three-dimensional bar graph, so as to obtain a deepening rate influence value position change graph; The regional analysis module divides the air pressure monitoring area into multiple target areas. The regional analysis module includes a historical analysis unit and a real-time analysis unit. The historical analysis unit statistically analyzes the three-dimensional graph of the deepening rate changes of explosive cyclones that have occurred in history, and obtains the frequency of the maximum deepening rate in different target areas as the maximum frequency reference value of the target area. The real-time analysis unit analyzes the terrain data and personnel and building data in different target areas to obtain the impact reference value and analyzes the risk parameters in each target area in combination with the frequency of the maximum deepening rate. The comprehensive analysis module records the currently identified explosive cyclone as the target monitoring cyclone, predicts the path and moving speed of the target monitoring cyclone through the cyclone path tracking model, records the target area predicted to pass through as the future passing area, and binds the target areas of each non-future passing area to the nearest future passing area to form multiple sets of passing impact areas and conduct independent analysis to obtain the cyclone impact value and prediction deviation value of each target area; The warning generation module generates different warning signals according to the cyclone impact value and prediction deviation value of each target area.

2. The explosive cyclone identification and analysis system according to claim 1, characterized in that: The specific steps of identification by the identification and analysis module are as follows: S1: Divide the air pressure monitoring area into multiple unit areas, the longitude and latitude of each unit area are equal to L, and L is less than or equal to 0.25°. Divide multiple identification areas in the air pressure monitoring area, the longitude and latitude of each identification area are 20L, obtain the lowest sea level pressure of all unit areas in the identification area, and record it as The lowest sea level pressure threshold P' is preset. When the lowest sea level pressure in the identification area is When it is less than the minimum threshold value P′ of sea level pressure, S2 is performed on the identified area; S2: while monitoring the air pressure in the unit area, calculate the air pressure gradient in the identification area, obtain the maximum value of the air pressure gradient in the identification area, compare the maximum value of the air pressure gradient with a preset gradient threshold, and when the maximum value of the air pressure gradient is greater than or equal to the preset gradient threshold, record the identification area as a cyclone area, record the cyclone in the cyclone area as a target cyclone, and perform S3 on the cyclone area; S3: When the cyclone area and its surrounding identification areas have not been recorded as cyclone areas in the previous 6 hours, the recording time of the cyclone area is recorded as the generation time of the target cyclone, and the cyclone area is recorded as the generation area. All cyclone areas that appear within 6 hours are recorded with the generation time as the time starting point, and the time interval of each cyclone area is recorded. S4 is performed on any two cyclone areas in any two adjacent time intervals; S4: The cyclones corresponding to two of the cyclone regions are recorded as cyclone A and cyclone B respectively. Let t-△t and t be the data acquisition time of cyclone A and cyclone B respectively, △t is the time interval between the two acquisitions, and let the distance between cyclone A at time t-△t and cyclone B at time t be △d. When the following conditions are met between the two cyclones, the two cyclones are recorded as the same cyclone: (1) △t≤24 hours; (2) Cyclone B at time t is the cyclone closest to cyclone A at time t-△t; (3) The moving speed of the cyclone is less than 40 m / s; (4) △d<△dmax, △dmax=Max(500km,3×△t×Vprev), Max(500km,3×△t×Vprev) represents the maximum value between 500km and 3×△t×Vprev, Vprev is the moving speed of cyclone A during the period t-2△t~t-△t, (5) the angle between the moving direction of cyclone A during the period t-2△t~t-△t and its moving direction during the period t-△t~t must be within a preset angle range (0-90° in a specific embodiment); S5: If the cyclones corresponding to all cyclone areas belong to the same cyclone, the corresponding target cyclone will be recorded as a persistent cyclone. The position of the lowest pressure point corresponding to the persistent cyclone will be recorded regularly, and the moving trajectory of the lowest point will be plotted as the cyclone moving path. The deepening rate of the persistent cyclone over time is obtained. When there is a curve portion in the curve that is greater than or equal to the deepening rate threshold, the persistent cyclone will be recorded as an explosive cyclone.

3. The explosive cyclone identification and analysis system according to claim 2, characterized in that: The tracking and analysis module assigns the deepening rate impact value as follows: Four range intervals are set according to the size of the deepening rate, namely the first range interval [1,1.3), the second range interval [1.3,1.7), the third range interval [1.7,2.2), and the fourth range interval (2.2,+∞). When the deepening rate is within the first range interval, the deepening rate influence value is assigned to 1, when the deepening rate is within the first range interval, the deepening rate influence value is assigned to 2, when the deepening rate is within the first range interval, the deepening rate influence value is assigned to 3, and when the deepening rate is within the first range interval, the deepening rate influence value is assigned to 4.

4. The explosive cyclone identification and analysis system according to claim 3, characterized in that: The specific analysis process of the historical analysis unit is as follows: A data collection time interval T is set, and the data of each explosive cyclone that occurred in the past T years are extracted and recorded as historical cyclone data. The three-dimensional graph of the deepening rate change corresponding to all historical cyclone data is drawn in the same spatial distribution map through the tracking and analysis module. The position where the maximum deepening rate appears in each three-dimensional graph of deepening rate change is extracted and recorded as the maximum point. The maximum point is marked in the spatial distribution map, and the number of maximum points in each target area in the spatial distribution map is counted and recorded as the maximum frequency reference value of the target area.

5. The explosive cyclone identification and analysis system according to claim 1, characterized in that: The analysis process of the real-time analysis unit on the influence reference value is specifically as follows: The target area is classified according to the proportion of ocean in the target area, which is divided into all-sea area, sea-land area and all-land area. When the proportion of ocean in the target area is equal to 0, it is recorded as all-land area. When the proportion of ocean in the target area is equal to 1, it is recorded as all-sea area. When the proportion of ocean in the target area is greater than 0 and less than 1, it is recorded as sea-land area. Different analysis methods are used according to the different types of target areas to calculate the impact reference value within the area.

6. The explosive cyclone identification and analysis system according to claim 5, characterized in that: The calculation process of the impact reference value is as follows: When the target area is the entire land area, obtain the number of permanent residents, the proportion of residential building area, the average height of buildings, and the contour map with a gradient of 50m in the target area, calculate the total length of contour lines of different heights in the contour map, preset an absolute value of height H, H is greater than or equal to 50M, calculate the total length of contour lines in the interval (-∞,-H], [H,+∞] respectively, and record them as l - , l + , obtain the lowest altitude, highest altitude and average altitude in the target area, denoted as h min 、h max , Will l - , l + 、h min 、h max , Substitute into the formula for calculation to obtain the terrain reference value of the target area Among them, ρ1 and ρ2 are preset weight factors, and the number of permanent residents in the target area is extracted as α RK , Residential building area ratio α JZ , average building height α LT , and α DX After normalization, enter the formula Calculate in to obtain the impact reference value β of the target area, where K1, K2, and K3 are all preset weight factors; When the target area is the entire sea area, obtain the number of ships j and the displacement Dv of each ship within the target area. i And the distance S between the center point of the target area and the coastline, substitute it into the formula Calculate in to obtain the influence reference value β of the target area, where G1, G2, and G3 are all preset weight factors; When the target area is a land-sea area, obtain the ocean proportion P, the number of ships m, and the displacement Dv of each ship in the target area. n , Resident population Residential building area ratio Average building height Substitute into the formula Calculation is performed in order to obtain the influence reference value β of the target area.

7. The explosive cyclone identification and analysis system according to claim 1, characterized in that: The comprehensive analysis module builds the impact area set through the following process: Extract all deepening rate influence values ​​in the current target area from the deepening rate influence value position change diagram of the target monitoring cyclone, assign values, and calculate their average value to obtain the real-time deepening parameter. The time required for the target monitoring cyclone to reach each future passing area is recorded as the arrival time of the future passing area. The calculation formula is: Where S represents the path distance of the target monitoring cyclone to each future passing area, and v represents the moving speed of the target monitoring cyclone; Get the minimum value of the distance between each target area and each future passing area as the closest distance value Dl min And bind the target areas of each non-future passing area to the nearest future passing area respectively to form multiple passing influence area sets.

8. The explosive cyclone identification and analysis system according to claim 7, characterized in that: The specific analysis process of the affected area set is as follows: Extract the influence reference value β and the closest distance value Dl of each target area that is not a future passing area min As well as the real-time deepening parameter BT of the explosive cyclone and the maximum frequency reference value Pc of the future passing area max , substitute into the formula Calculation is performed to obtain the cyclone impact value U of each target area in the set of impact areas, where ε1 is a preset value; Extract the arrival time t of the future passing area and substitute it into the formula Calculation is performed in order to obtain the predicted deviation value W of the impact value of each cyclone in the set of affected areas, where f is the maximum prediction time.

9. The explosive cyclone identification and analysis system according to claim 8, characterized in that: The warning generation module obtains the cyclone impact value and predicted deviation value of each target area, sets a deviation threshold and an impact threshold respectively, and generates an impact warning signal when the cyclone impact value is greater than the impact threshold; when the cyclone impact value is greater than the impact threshold and the predicted deviation value is less than the deviation threshold, an evacuation warning signal is generated.

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