Method and system for determining novel reasonable energy storage scale of system based on value-based grooming

Abstract

The invention discloses a novel system energy storage reasonable scale determination method and system based on value-based grooming, a storage medium, equipment and a program, and belongs to the field of power system planning. The method comprises the following steps: estimating a novel energy storage initial scale sequence according to obtained target system planning level annual basic data; calculating the annual cost of the novel energy storage cost dredging demand and the annual benefit of the energy storage system value; under the pre-estimated novel energy storage initial scale sequence, comparing the annual cost of the novel energy storage cost dredging demand with the annual benefit of the energy storage system value to obtain a novel energy storage reasonable scale; and verifying the novel energy storage reasonable scale theoretical value through the system power balance rigid constraint to obtain a novel energy storage reasonable scale suggestion. By calculating the annual benefit of the system value and determining the reasonable energy storage scale of the system according to the value dredging cost, the overall influence of energy storage on the operation of the power system is comprehensively evaluated, and finally the suggested value of the reasonable energy storage scale of the system is obtained.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the field of power system planning, and in particular to a method, system, storage medium, device and program for determining a reasonable scale of a new energy storage system based on value guidance. Background Art

[0002] Against the backdrop of global energy transformation and climate change response, building a new power system has become a key path to promote clean and low-carbon energy transformation and achieve sustainable development. This system aims to deeply integrate renewable energy (such as wind and solar energy) with traditional fossil energy, and improve the flexibility, safety and economy of the energy system through technological innovation and model change. In this transformation process, the improvement of the system's flexible adjustment capability is particularly important, which is directly related to whether the power system can effectively cope with the intermittent and volatile output of new energy and ensure stable and reliable power supply.

[0003] As an important support for this transformation, new energy storage technology has become a key means to improve system flexibility with its unique "double short" advantages - short response time and short construction period. It can not only quickly respond to changes in grid demand and participate in various auxiliary services such as peak regulation, frequency regulation, and black start, but also complement new energy sources such as wind and solar power, effectively alleviating the impact of the uncertainty of new energy generation on the grid. In addition, new energy storage can also provide necessary peak support when the peak regulation capacity of traditional thermal power is insufficient, further enhancing the resilience and reliability of the power system.

[0004] However, the widespread application of new energy storage technologies also faces many challenges. First, the energy storage system itself does not directly generate electricity. Its value is mainly reflected in the various services it provides to the power grid. Therefore, it is necessary to achieve reasonable value compensation through market mechanisms. However, at present, the profit model of energy storage is not clear, and there is a lack of a unified and transparent pricing mechanism and compensation mechanism, which leads to uncertainty in the return on energy storage investment. Secondly, the investment cost of energy storage technology is relatively high, which to a certain extent limits the feasibility of its large-scale deployment. If we blindly pursue excessive configuration of energy storage capacity, it will not only increase the operating cost of the power system, but may also push up the electricity costs of end users and affect the overall welfare of the social economy.

[0005] Traditional planning and design methods simply estimate the scale of new energy storage in the system, which is difficult to fully reflect the organic balance between energy storage cost and value, and cannot accurately measure the role of energy storage in all aspects of system operation. As a result, it is impossible to accurately assess the impact of energy storage on power system operation at different time and spatial scales, and thus it is impossible to fully assess the overall impact of energy storage on power system operation. Summary of the invention

[0006] In view of the problem in the prior art that a simple estimation of the scale of new energy storage in the system cannot accurately assess the impact of energy storage on the operation of the power system at different time scales and spatial scales, resulting in an inability to comprehensively assess the overall impact of energy storage on the operation of the power system. The present invention provides a method for determining the reasonable scale of new energy storage in the system based on value guidance, by establishing a value assessment system for a new energy storage system under a multi-energy complementary operation mode to calculate the annual benefit of the system value, and determining the reasonable scale of energy storage in the system based on the value guidance cost, and especially introducing the coefficient of participation of new energy storage in the power balance, comprehensively assessing the overall impact of energy storage on the operation of the power system, and finally obtaining a reasonable scale recommendation for system energy storage.

[0007] In order to achieve the above object, the present invention provides the following technical solutions.

[0008] In a first aspect, the present invention provides a method for determining a reasonable scale of a new energy storage system based on value guidance, comprising: Based on the basic data of the target system planning level, estimate the initial scale sequence of new energy storage; Calculate the annual cost of new energy storage to alleviate demand and the annual benefit of the energy storage system value; Under the estimated initial scale sequence of new energy storage, the annual cost of new energy storage demand diversion and the annual benefit of energy storage system value are compared to obtain the reasonable scale of new energy storage; The theoretical value of the reasonable scale of the new energy storage is verified by the rigid constraint of system power balance, and the reasonable scale recommendation of the new energy storage is obtained.

[0009] As a further improvement of the present invention, the method of estimating the initial scale sequence of the new energy storage system based on obtaining the target system planning level annual basic data includes: Obtain the basic data of the target system planning level year and calculate the new energy scale of the target system; According to the new energy scale of the target system, estimate the initial scale sequence of new energy storage; The initial scale sequence of the new energy storage is specifically expressed as follows: , , … ………

[0010] In the formula, For new energy storage capacity, New energy storage adds capacity.

[0011] As a further improvement of the present invention, the calculation of the annual cost of the new energy storage cost-governing demand includes: Obtain full life cycle cost data for new energy storage; Based on the cost data of the new energy storage throughout its life cycle, calculate the annual cost of new energy storage cost diversion demand under the expected rate of return; The annual cost of new energy storage cost diversion demand is expressed as follows:

[0012] In the formula, The annual cost is the cost; The initial investment cost for new energy storage; It is the new energy storage operation and maintenance rate; Replacement rates for new energy storage; Reusability rate for new energy storage; The operating life of the new energy storage; The year in which the new energy storage equipment is replaced; is the base discount rate.

[0013] As a further improvement of the present invention, the method of calculating the annual benefit of the energy storage system value includes: Establish a new energy storage system value assessment system under the multi-energy complementary operation mode, and calculate the annual value of the energy storage system in full-time production simulation calculation; The annual benefit of the energy storage system is as follows: ) / 1000000 In the formula, is the annual benefit cost; Replace conventional coal-fired generating units with new energy storage capacity; Unit investment for conventional coal-fired units; is the industry benchmark discount rate; is the operating life of conventional coal-fired units; is the annual operation and maintenance fee rate for conventional coal-fired units; The amount of new energy curtailment and coal-fired power generation reduced by new energy storage; is the standard coal consumption of the unit; is the unit price of standard coal; is the carbon emission factor of standard coal; The carbon price.

[0014] As a further improvement of the present invention, the annual cost of new energy storage cost diversion demand and the annual benefit of energy storage system value are compared under the estimated initial scale sequence of new energy storage to obtain the theoretical value of the reasonable scale of new energy storage, including: Under the estimated initial scale sequence of new energy storage, the annual cost of new energy storage demand diversion and the annual benefit of energy storage system value are compared to obtain the benefit / cost-scale trend conclusion; According to the benefit / cost-scale trend results, conduct benefit-cost analysis and obtain the analysis results; If the analysis results meet , then we get the reasonable scale of new energy storage ; In the formula, The annual benefit of the energy storage system value; Annual costs to divert demand for new energy storage costs.

[0015] As a further improvement of the present invention, the method of verifying the theoretical value of the reasonable scale of the new energy storage by the rigid constraint of the system power balance to obtain the reasonable scale suggestion of the new energy storage includes: Reasonable scale of new energy storage There is still a rigid gap in electricity supply ,Right now >0; Must be able to reduce the electricity deficit by at least 10%, i.e. >10% Determine the appropriate scale of new energy storage The rigid gap of power supply in the lower system Is it satisfied? >0; when >0 and >10%, if any one of them is not met, the reasonable scale of new energy storage That is, it is regarded as a reasonable scale recommendation for the new energy storage of the system, and no further optimization is required; when >0 and >10%, if both are met, the energy storage installed capacity will be optimized to reduce the system power gap by further increasing the new energy storage capacity; the determined new energy storage capacity It is considered as a reasonable scale recommendation for new energy storage in the system considering the rigid constraints of power balance; In the formula, Reasonable size for new energy storage The rigid gap of power supply in the lower system; Add capacity for new energy storage to participate in the power balance coefficient; ; For new The reduction in electricity gap brought about by this

[0016] In a second aspect, the present invention provides a new energy storage reasonable scale determination system based on value guidance, comprising: Estimation sequence module: used to estimate the initial scale sequence of new energy storage based on the basic data of the target system planning level year; Calculation data module: used to calculate the annual cost of new energy storage cost diversion demand and the annual value benefit of energy storage system; Energy storage scale module: used to compare the annual cost of new energy storage demand and the annual benefit of energy storage system value under the estimated initial scale sequence of new energy storage, and obtain the reasonable scale of new energy storage; Obtaining suggestion module: It is used to verify the theoretical value of the reasonable scale of new energy storage through the rigid constraint of system power balance, and obtain the reasonable scale suggestion of new energy storage.

[0017] In a third aspect, the present invention provides an electronic device comprising a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein when the processor executes the computer program, the steps of a method for determining a reasonable scale of a new type of energy storage system based on value-based guidance are implemented.

[0018] In a fourth aspect, the present invention provides a computer-readable storage medium storing a computer program, which, when executed by a processor, implements the steps of a method for determining a reasonable scale of a new type of energy storage system based on value-based guidance.

[0019] In a fifth aspect, the present invention provides a computer program product, characterized in that it includes computer instructions, which, when executed by a processor, implement the steps of a method for determining the reasonable scale of a new type of energy storage system based on value-based dredging.

[0020] Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following beneficial effects: The present invention estimates the initial scale sequence of new energy storage by comprehensively considering the basic data of the power system planning level year. This process avoids the shortcomings of traditional methods that rely solely on experience or rough estimates, and ensures the accuracy and scientificity of energy storage scale estimation. At the same time, by comparing the annual cost and annual benefits under different scales, it is possible to accurately identify the reasonable scale of new energy storage that optimizes the overall benefit of the system, and effectively solves the blindness and uncertainty problems in the process of determining the energy storage scale. Secondly, the present invention has been deeply refined in the cost-benefit analysis, not only considering the direct costs such as the purchase cost and operation and maintenance cost of the energy storage equipment, but also incorporating the indirect benefits of the energy storage system in improving the flexibility, reliability, and economy of the power system. This comprehensive cost-benefit analysis framework helps to more accurately evaluate the economic value of the energy storage system in different application scenarios.

[0021] Furthermore, the present invention innovatively introduces the concept of value-governing cost, and by constructing a value evaluation system for a new energy storage system under a multi-energy complementary operation mode, calculates the annual value benefit of the system, and determines the reasonable energy storage scale of the system accordingly. This mechanism effectively promotes the value discovery and value realization of the energy storage system in the power system, so that energy storage resources can obtain reasonable economic compensation according to their actual contribution, thereby encouraging more social capital to invest in the field of energy storage and promote the rapid development and widespread application of energy storage technology. The present invention also introduces the key indicator of the new energy storage participation in the power balance coefficient, which is used to comprehensively evaluate the overall impact of the energy storage system on the operation of the power system at different time scales and spatial scales. This coefficient not only reflects the role of the energy storage system in alleviating the contradiction between supply and demand of the power system and improving the stability and reliability of the system, but also reveals the dynamic characteristics and adaptability of the energy storage system under different operating conditions. Through real-time monitoring and analysis of this coefficient, the operating status of the energy storage system can be discovered and adjusted in a timely manner to ensure that it plays its maximum role in the power system. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0022] The drawings described herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to limit the scope of the present disclosure in any way. In the drawings: Figure 1 A schematic diagram of a flow chart of a method for determining a reasonable scale of a new type of energy storage system based on value guidance according to the present invention; Figure 2 A schematic diagram of a specific process of a method for determining a reasonable scale of a new type of energy storage system based on value guidance according to the present invention; Figure 3 A schematic diagram of a value system of a new energy storage system in a method for determining a reasonable scale of a new energy storage system based on value guidance according to the present invention; Figure 4 It is a trend diagram of the relationship between the annual benefit, annual cost, new capacity participation power balance coefficient and capacity scale of the new energy storage system in the embodiment of the present invention, and a schematic diagram of the reasonable capacity scale position; Figure 5 It is a structural schematic diagram of a new energy storage reasonable scale determination system based on value guidance of the present invention; Figure 6 Schematic diagram of an electronic device in an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0023] In order to enable those skilled in the art to better understand the technical solutions in the present invention, the technical solutions in the present invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the drawings in the present invention. The described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments in the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in the field without creative work should fall within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0024] Unless otherwise defined, all technical and scientific terms used herein have the same meaning as those commonly understood by those skilled in the art to which the present invention belongs. The terms used herein in the specification of the present invention are only for the purpose of describing specific embodiments and are not intended to limit the present invention. The term "and / or" used herein includes any and all combinations of one or more of the related listed items.

[0025] In view of the existing problems in the prior art, the simple estimation of the scale of new energy storage in the system cannot accurately evaluate the impact of energy storage on the operation of the power system at different time scales and spatial scales, resulting in the inability to comprehensively evaluate the overall impact of energy storage on the operation of the power system. The present invention provides a method for determining the reasonable scale of new energy storage in the system based on value guidance, such as Figure 1 As shown, the method includes: S101: Estimate the initial scale sequence of new energy storage based on the basic data of the target system planning level year; S201: Calculate the annual cost of new energy storage to alleviate demand and the annual benefit of energy storage system value; S301: Under the estimated initial scale sequence of new energy storage, compare the annual cost of new energy storage demand diversion and the annual benefit of energy storage system value to obtain the reasonable scale of new energy storage; S401: Verify the theoretical value of the reasonable scale of the new energy storage through the rigid constraint of system power balance, and obtain the reasonable scale recommendation of the new energy storage.

[0026] The present invention calculates the annual benefit of the system value by establishing a new energy storage system value evaluation system under the multi-energy complementary operation mode, determines the reasonable energy storage scale of the system based on the value guidance cost, and specially introduces the new energy storage participation power balance coefficient to comprehensively evaluate the overall impact of energy storage on the operation of the power system, and finally obtains the recommended value of the reasonable scale of system energy storage.

[0027] The present invention is explained in detail below.

[0028] The present invention provides a method for determining a reasonable scale of a new type of energy storage system based on value guidance, and the specific scheme includes: S1: Collect the annual boundary data of the system under study, preliminarily give the new energy storage scale sequence according to the proportion of 10%-20% based on the scale of new energy, and set the appropriate scale growth step.

[0029] S2: Calculate the initial investment cost, operation and maintenance cost, replacement cost, reuse cost, etc. of new energy storage based on data such as unit power investment cost, operation and maintenance rate, replacement rate, and reusability rate of new energy storage, and convert the annual cost.

[0030] S3: Establish a new energy storage system value assessment system of “capacity + energy + low carbon”.

[0031] According to the system planning boundary, full-time production simulation analysis is carried out to calculate the annual benefits of new energy storage: 1) Obtain the installed capacity of new energy storage to replace coal-fired units, calculate the capacity benefit based on the unit investment and operation and maintenance rate of coal-fired units, and express it as the sum of the annual value of investment and annual operation and maintenance costs; 2) Obtain data on the reduction of new energy curtailment by new energy storage, calculate the reduction in coal consumption based on the standard coal consumption of coal-fired power units, and calculate energy benefits based on the standard coal unit price and the reduction in coal consumption; 3) Calculate low-carbon benefits based on coal consumption reduction, standard coal carbon emission factor, and carbon price; S4: Compare the annual costs and annual benefits corresponding to each scale under the given new energy storage scale sequence to be optimized, and take the energy storage scale when the benefit-cost ratio is 1 as the theoretical value of the reasonable scale of the new energy storage and the optimal value of the national economy.

[0032] S5: If there is still a power gap in the system and the rigid demand for the power gap cannot be effectively solved by other means, and peak demand needs to be met by adding new energy storage and increasing energy storage still has the effect of reducing the power gap, then continue to increase the energy storage capacity until the power balance constraint is met, and obtain the recommended value of the reasonable scale of energy storage considering the power balance constraint.

[0033] The present invention is further explained below with reference to the accompanying drawings.

[0034] like Figure 2 As shown, the present invention provides a method for determining a reasonable scale of a new energy storage system based on value guidance, comprising: S1: Obtain the basic data of the target system planning level year and determine the initial scale sequence of new energy storage; According to the proportion of 10%-20% of the new energy scale of the target system, the new energy storage scale sequence to be optimized is estimated, which is characterized as follows: , , … ………

[0035] In the formula, For new energy storage capacity, New energy storage capacity added, unit: 10,000 kW.

[0036] S2: Obtain the cost data of the new energy storage throughout its life cycle and calculate the annual cost of new energy storage cost diversion demand under the expected rate of return; S2 takes the initial investment cost, operation and maintenance cost, replacement cost, and reuse cost of the new energy storage system as input, and converts the annual cost into the following formula:

[0037] In the formula, The annual cost is the cost; is the initial investment cost of new energy storage, unit: 10,000 yuan; It is the new energy storage operation and maintenance rate; Replacement rates for new energy storage; Reusability rate for new energy storage; The operating life of the new energy storage; The year in which the new energy storage equipment is replaced; The benchmark discount rate can be determined according to the industry's expected rate of return. Replacement costs occur when the service life of some equipment is less than the operating life of the energy storage system.

[0038] S3. Establish a new energy storage system value assessment system under the multi-energy complementary operation mode, and calculate the annual value of the energy storage system based on full-time production simulation; like Figure 3 As shown in the figure, the regulatory role of new energy storage in the system in terms of safe supply (upward peak regulation) and new energy consumption (downward peak regulation) under the multi-energy complementary operation mode is fully considered, and a new energy storage system value evaluation system of "capacity + energy + low carbon" is established, and the corresponding annual benefits are used as the representation: ) / 1000000 In the formula, is the annual benefit cost; The installed capacity of conventional coal-fired units replaced by new energy storage, unit: 10,000 kW; It is the unit investment of conventional coal-fired units, unit: Yuan / kW; is the industry benchmark discount rate; is the operating life of conventional coal-fired units; is the annual operation and maintenance fee rate for conventional coal-fired units; The amount of new energy curtailment and coal-fired power generation reduced by new energy storage, unit: 10,000 kWh; is the standard coal consumption of the unit, unit: g / kWh; is the unit price of standard coal, unit: yuan / ton; is the carbon emission factor of standard coal; is the carbon price, unit: Yuan / ton.

[0039] 1) Capacity value refers to the value of new energy storage in improving the system's reliable power supply capacity and effectively replacing conventional coal-fired units in participating in power balance capacity, as well as the benefits of reducing investment and operation and maintenance costs corresponding to the installed capacity of conventional coal-fired units, represented by the sum of the annual value of investment and annual operation and maintenance costs; 2) Energy value refers to the value of new energy storage to improve the system's flexible adjustment capability and effectively improve the level of new energy consumption, that is, the benefit of reducing coal consumption costs brought about by reducing coal-fired power generation, which is represented by the product of the standard coal consumption of coal-fired power units, the unit price of standard coal and the annual power generation reduction; 3) Low-carbon value refers to the value of new energy storage in reducing the coal consumption of conventional coal-fired units and effectively improving the green and low-carbon level of the system, that is, the carbon dioxide emission reduction benefit brought about by reducing the coal consumption of conventional coal-fired units, which is represented by the product of the unit carbon dioxide emission cost (or carbon price) and the annual carbon dioxide emission reduction; S4. With the goal of annual benefit-cost parity (benefit-cost ratio = 1), seek a reasonable theoretical value of energy storage scale that meets the demand for new energy storage cost management and balances system value, that is, the optimal value of the national economy; Given a new energy storage scale sequence to be optimized, the calculation results of S2 and S3 are compared to obtain the benefit / cost-scale trend results; According to the benefit / cost-scale trend results, a benefit / cost-scale trend curve is made to obtain the theoretical value of the reasonable scale of the new energy storage and the optimal value of the national economy. The basis for determination is:

[0040] S5. Further optimize and verify the energy storage scale based on the rigid demand for system power balance, and obtain the recommended value for the reasonable scale of the system's new energy storage.

[0041] S5 is based on S4 and further optimizes the verification energy storage scale based on the rigid demand for system power balance. The conditions for determining whether S5 is carried out are as follows: 1a) >0 2b) >10% in, Reasonable size of new energy storage determined for S4 The rigid gap of power supply in the lower system; Add capacity for new energy storage to participate in the power balance coefficient; ; For new The reduction in electricity gap brought about by this

[0042] Condition 1a) requires that there is a power gap and that due to constraints from other power construction conditions and policy factors, it is necessary to further increase the installed capacity of new energy storage to meet the peak demand of the system; Condition 2b) requires that the increase in installed capacity of new energy storage has the effect of reducing the rigid gap in system power supply.

[0043] If any of condition 1a) and condition 2b) is not met, the new energy storage capacity determined by S4 If the judgment condition is met, the S5 energy storage installed capacity will be optimized, and new energy storage capacity will be added. When the system power gap is reduced to zero or the new energy storage capacity participating in the power balance coefficient is reduced to less than 10%, the optimization will be terminated. At this time, the new energy storage capacity determined That is, the recommended value of the new energy storage capacity for the system considering the rigid constraints of power balance.

[0044] The present invention is further explained below in conjunction with specific embodiments.

[0045] Example The planned annual maximum load of a regional power system is 220 million kW, the power consumption is 1.5 trillion kWh, the planned conventional hydropower is 42 million kW, coal power is 180 million kW, wind power is 140 million kW, photovoltaic power is 300 million kW, and pumped storage is 28 million kW. Based on this boundary, the reasonable scale of the system's new energy storage is determined.

[0046] The specific steps of this method are as follows: S1: According to the scale of new energy, the scale sequence of new energy storage installed capacity is preliminarily determined: The installed capacity of new energy in this system is 440 GW. According to the ratio of 10%-20%, the total storage capacity is estimated to be about 44-88 GW. After deducting the pumped storage capacity, the installed capacity of new energy storage is about 16-60 GW. With a step of 10 GW, the installed capacity sequence is determined as 10, 20, 30, 40, and 50 GW, and the energy storage time is considered to be 4 hours.

[0047] S2: Obtain the cost data of energy storage throughout its life cycle and calculate the annual cost of new energy storage to alleviate demand under the expected rate of return.

[0048] Taking mainstream lithium iron phosphate batteries as an example, the unit investment for 4-hour energy storage is 4,800 yuan / kW, the operating life is 20 years, and the battery is replaced in the 10th year. The unit replacement cost is 2,160 yuan / kW (replacement rate is 45%), the operation and maintenance rate is 1.0%, the recycling rate is 5%, and the base discount rate is 6.5%. The corresponding annual cost of new energy storage cost diversion demand is shown in Table 1: Table 1 Calculation of annual cost of cost-governing demand under different new energy storage scales

[0049] S3: For different new energy storage scales, carry out system 8760 production simulation calculations, quantify the role of new energy storage in the system, and calculate the annual benefit of new energy storage value according to the corresponding benefit characterization of the "capacity + energy + low carbon" value evaluation system established by the present invention, as shown in Table 2. Relevant indicators and parameters: conventional coal-fired units have a unit kilowatt investment of 3,800 yuan / kW, an operating life of 30 years, an operation and maintenance rate of 2.7%, a standard coal consumption of 290g / kWh, a standard coal price of 800 yuan / ton, a standard coal carbon emission factor of 2.66, and a carbon emission price of 120 yuan / ton.

[0050] Table 2 Calculation of annual benefits of system value under different new energy storage scales

[0051] S4: Perform a benefit-cost analysis based on the annual cost and annual benefit of the new energy storage calculated by S2 and S3, and take the energy storage scale when the benefit-cost ratio is 1 as the theoretical value of the reasonable scale of the new energy storage and the optimal value of the national economy. As shown in Table 3, by comparison, when the new energy storage scale is 34 million kW, the benefit-cost ratio is 1, and this scale is the optimal scale of the national economy of the system. .

[0052] Table 3 Determination of the optimal energy storage scale for the national economy New energy storage scale series (10,000 kW) 1000 2000 3000 3400 4000 5000 1. Total cost (ten thousand yuan) 581881 1163763 1745644 1978397 2327526 2909407 2. Total benefits (10,000 yuan) 692752 1336528 1819314 1970840 2126539 2430508 3. Benefit-cost ratio 1.19 1.15 1.04 1.00 0.91 0.84 4. System power gap (10,000 kW) -569 -352 -180 -116 -51 0 5. New energy storage participation in power balance coefficient 23.0% 21.7% 17.2% 16.0% 10.8% 10.2% S5: Check the rigid constraints of power balance. From the calculation results, we can see that Under 34 million kW, the system power gap GW, the power shortage problem can be effectively solved by adding new energy storage, and the new energy storage capacity and power balance coefficient is greater than 10% (16.0%), which meets the constraints of S5. According to further calculations, when the new energy storage capacity reaches 45 GW, the system power gap will be zero, and the new energy storage capacity and power balance coefficient will be reduced to 10%. Therefore, as shown in Table 4 and Figure 4 As shown, the optimized scale of new energy storage considering power balance constraints in this system is about 45 million kW.

[0053] Table 4 New energy storage scale optimization considering power balance rigidity constraints New energy storage scale series (10,000 kW) 3400 4000 4500 5000 Electricity gap (10,000 kW) -116 -51 0 0 New capacity participating in power balance coefficient 16.0% 10.8% 10.2% 0 like Figure 5 As shown, the second object of the present invention is to propose a new energy storage reasonable scale determination system based on value-based system guidance, including: Estimation sequence module 101: used to estimate the initial scale sequence of new energy storage according to the basic data of the target system planning level year; Calculation data module 102: used to calculate the annual cost of new energy storage cost diversion demand and the annual benefit of energy storage system value; Energy storage scale module 103: used to compare the annual cost of new energy storage cost diversion demand and the annual benefit of energy storage system value under the estimated initial scale sequence of new energy storage, so as to obtain the reasonable scale of new energy storage; The suggestion acquisition module 104 is used to verify the theoretical value of the reasonable scale of the new energy storage through the rigid constraint of the system power balance, and obtain the reasonable scale suggestion of the new energy storage.

[0054] like Figure 6 As shown, the third object of the present invention is to provide an electronic device, the electronic device comprising: a processor 501, a memory 502 and a display screen 503. Among them, the memory 502 and the display screen 503 are connected to the processor 501, such as through a bus 504. Optionally, the electronic device may also include a transceiver 505. It should be noted that in actual applications, the transceiver 505 is not limited to one, and the structure of the electronic device does not constitute a limitation on the embodiments of the present application.

[0055] Processor 501 may be a CPU (Central Processing Unit), a general-purpose processor, a DSP (Digital Signal Processor), an ASIC (Application Specific Integrated Circuit), an FPGA (Field Programmable Gate Array) or other programmable logic devices, transistor logic devices, hardware components or any combination thereof. It may implement or execute various exemplary logic blocks, modules and circuits described in conjunction with the disclosure of this application. Processor 501 may also be a combination that implements computing functions, such as a combination of one or more microprocessors, a combination of a DSP and a microprocessor, etc.

[0056] The bus 504 may include a path to transmit information between the above components. The bus 504 may be a PCI (Peripheral Component Interconnect) bus or an EISA (Extended Industry Standard Architecture) bus, etc. The bus 504 may be divided into an address bus, a data bus, a control bus, etc.

[0057] The memory 502 may be a ROM (Read Only Memory) or other types of static storage devices that can store static information and instructions, a RAM (Random Access Memory) or other types of dynamic storage devices that can store information and instructions, or an EEPROM (Electrically Erasable Programmable Read Only Memory), a CD-ROM (Compact Disc Read Only Memory) or other optical disk storage, optical disk storage (including compressed optical disk, laser disk, optical disk, digital versatile disk, Blu-ray disk, etc.), a magnetic disk storage medium or other magnetic storage device, or any other medium that can be used to carry or store the desired program code in the form of instructions or data structures and can be accessed by a computer, but is not limited thereto.

[0058] The memory 502 is used to store application code for executing the solution of the present application, and the execution is controlled by the processor 501. The processor 501 is used to execute the application code stored in the memory 502 to implement the contents shown in the above method embodiment.

[0059] Figure 6 The electronic device shown is merely an example and should not bring any limitation to the functions and scope of use of the embodiments of the present application.

[0060] The fourth object of the present invention is to provide a computer-readable storage medium, wherein the computer-readable storage medium stores a computer program, wherein the computer program is stored thereon, and when the program is executed by a processor, the aforementioned Figure 1 to Figure 2 The various processes of the method embodiment shown in the figure include, for example, a memory including instructions, and the instructions can be executed by a processor of an electronic device to complete the method.

[0061] A computer-readable storage medium may be a tangible device that holds and stores instructions used by an instruction execution device. A computer-readable storage medium may be, but is not limited to, an electrical storage device, a magnetic storage device, an optical storage device, an electromagnetic storage device, a semiconductor storage device, or any combination thereof. Specifically, a computer-readable storage medium may be a portable computer disk, a hard disk, a USB flash drive, a random access memory (RAM), a read-only memory (ROM), an erasable programmable read-only memory (EPROM or flash memory), a lectern random access memory (SRAM), a portable compact disk read-only memory (CD-ROM), a digital versatile disk (DVD), a memory stick, a floppy disk, an optical disk, a magnetic disk, a mechanical encoding device, and any combination thereof.

[0062] A fifth object of the present invention is to provide a computer program product, comprising computer instructions, which, when executed by a processor, implement the above Figure 1 to Figure 2 The various processes of the method embodiment shown can achieve the same technical effect, and will not be described again here to avoid repetition.

[0063] Many embodiments and many applications beyond the examples provided will be apparent to those skilled in the art upon reading the above description. Therefore, the scope of the present teachings should not be determined with reference to the above description, but rather with reference to the preceding claims and the full scope of equivalents to which such claims are entitled. For the purpose of comprehensiveness, all articles and references, including disclosures of patent applications and publications, are incorporated herein by reference. The omission of any aspect of the subject matter disclosed herein in the preceding claims is not intended to be a disclaimer of such subject matter, nor should it be considered that the applicants did not consider such subject matter to be part of the disclosed inventive subject matter.

[0064] The above content is a further detailed description of the present invention. It cannot be determined that the specific implementation methods of the present invention are limited to these. For ordinary technicians in the technical field to which the present invention belongs, without departing from the concept of the present invention, they can also make several simple deductions or substitutions, which should be regarded as belonging to the protection scope of the present invention determined by the submitted claims.

Claims

1. A method for determining the reasonable scale of new energy storage system based on value guidance, characterized in that: include: Based on the basic data of the target system planning level, estimate the initial scale sequence of new energy storage; Calculate the annual cost of new energy storage to alleviate demand and the annual benefit of the energy storage system value; Under the estimated initial scale sequence of new energy storage, the annual cost of new energy storage demand diversion and the annual benefit of energy storage system value are compared to obtain the reasonable scale of new energy storage; The theoretical value of the reasonable scale of the new energy storage is verified by the rigid constraint of system power balance, and the reasonable scale recommendation of the new energy storage is obtained.

2. A method for determining the reasonable scale of a new energy storage system based on value guidance according to claim 1, characterized in that: The method of estimating the initial scale sequence of new energy storage based on obtaining the basic data of the target system planning level year includes: Obtain the basic data of the target system planning level year and calculate the new energy scale of the target system; According to the new energy scale of the target system, estimate the initial scale sequence of new energy storage; The initial scale sequence of the new energy storage is specifically expressed as follows: ， ， …… ……… In the formula, For new energy storage capacity, New energy storage adds capacity.

3. The method for determining the reasonable scale of a new energy storage system based on value guidance according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The annual cost of calculating the new energy storage cost to alleviate demand includes: Obtain full life cycle cost data for new energy storage; Based on the cost data of the new energy storage throughout its life cycle, calculate the annual cost of new energy storage cost diversion demand under the expected rate of return; The annual cost of new energy storage cost diversion demand is expressed as follows: In the formula, The annual cost is the cost; The initial investment cost for new energy storage; It is the new energy storage operation and maintenance rate; Replacement rates for new energy storage; Reusability rate for new energy storage; The operating life of the new energy storage; The year in which the new energy storage equipment is replaced; is the base discount rate.

4. A method for determining the reasonable scale of a new energy storage system based on value guidance according to claim 1, characterized in that: The calculation of the annual benefit of the energy storage system value includes: Establish a new energy storage system value assessment system under the multi-energy complementary operation mode, and calculate the annual value of the energy storage system in full-time production simulation calculation; The annual benefit of the energy storage system is as follows: ) / 1000000 In the formula, is the annual benefit cost; Replace conventional coal-fired generating units with new energy storage capacity; Unit investment for conventional coal-fired units; is the industry benchmark discount rate; is the operating life of conventional coal-fired units; is the annual operation and maintenance fee rate for conventional coal-fired units; The amount of new energy curtailment and coal-fired power generation reduced by new energy storage; is the standard coal consumption of the unit; is the unit price of standard coal; is the carbon emission factor of standard coal; The carbon price.

5. The method for determining the reasonable scale of a new energy storage system based on value guidance according to claim 1 is characterized in that: Under the estimated initial scale sequence of new energy storage, the annual cost of new energy storage demand diversion and the annual benefit of energy storage system value are compared to obtain the theoretical value of the reasonable scale of new energy storage, including: Under the estimated initial scale sequence of new energy storage, the annual cost of new energy storage demand diversion and the annual benefit of energy storage system value are compared to obtain the benefit / cost-scale trend conclusion; According to the benefit / cost-scale trend results, conduct benefit-cost analysis and obtain the analysis results; If the analysis results meet , then we get the reasonable scale of new energy storage ; In the formula, The annual benefit of the energy storage system value; Annual costs for new energy storage cost diversion requirements.

6. A method for determining the reasonable scale of a new energy storage system based on value guidance according to claim 1, characterized in that: The method of verifying the theoretical value of the reasonable scale of the new energy storage by the rigid constraint of the system power balance and obtaining the reasonable scale suggestion of the new energy storage includes: Reasonable scale of new energy storage There is still a rigid gap in electricity supply ,Right now >0; Must be able to reduce the electricity deficit by at least 10%, i.e. >10% Determine the appropriate scale of new energy storage The rigid gap of power supply in the lower system Is it satisfied? >0; when >0 and >10%, if any one of them is not met, the reasonable scale of new energy storage That is, it is regarded as a reasonable scale recommendation for the new energy storage of the system, and no further optimization is required; when >0 and >10%, if both are met, the energy storage installed capacity will be optimized to reduce the system power gap by further increasing the new energy storage capacity; the determined new energy storage capacity It is considered as a reasonable scale recommendation for new energy storage in the system considering the rigid constraints of power balance; In the formula, Reasonable size for new energy storage The rigid gap of power supply in the lower system; Add capacity for new energy storage to participate in the power balance coefficient; ; For new The reduction in electricity gap brought about by this 7. A new energy storage reasonable scale determination system based on value guidance, characterized in that: include: Estimation sequence module: used to estimate the initial scale sequence of new energy storage based on the basic data of the target system planning level year; Calculation data module: used to calculate the annual cost of new energy storage cost diversion demand and the annual value benefit of energy storage system; Energy storage scale module: used to compare the annual cost of new energy storage demand and the annual benefit of energy storage system value under the estimated initial scale sequence of new energy storage, and obtain the reasonable scale of new energy storage; Obtaining suggestion module: It is used to verify the theoretical value of the reasonable scale of new energy storage through the rigid constraint of system power balance, and obtain the reasonable scale suggestion of new energy storage.

8. An electronic device, characterized in that: The method comprises a memory, a processor and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein when the processor executes the computer program, the steps of a method for determining a reasonable scale of a new type of energy storage system based on value-based dredging as described in any one of claims 1 to 6 are implemented.

9. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that: The computer-readable storage medium stores a computer program, and when the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps of a method for determining a reasonable scale of a new type of energy storage system based on value-based guidance as described in any one of claims 1 to 6 are implemented.

10. A computer program product, characterized in that It includes computer instructions, which, when executed by a processor, implement the steps of a method for determining the reasonable scale of a new type of energy storage system based on value guidance as described in any one of claims 1 to 6.

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