A method and system for evaluating the safety risk level of feed for cattle and sheep breeding

Abstract

The present invention discloses a method and system for evaluating the safety risk level of feed for raising cattle and sheep, specifically relating to the technical field of raising cattle and sheep; through sample detection and data analysis, potential toxic substances in the feed are accurately identified, and combined with the biological enrichment anomaly index and the metabolic pathway deviation index, a model for predicting the accumulation level of chronic toxic substances in cattle and sheep is constructed. According to this model, the system can evaluate the health risks of different toxic substances, divide the safety risks of the feed into three levels: high, medium, and low, and formulate corresponding management measures. When the risk level is medium, the system will further dynamically adjust the risk level to respond in real time to possible high-risk evolutions, thereby realizing precise, dynamic monitoring and effective management of the safety of cattle and sheep feed, and avoiding the potential safety hazards brought by the inability of the static risk assessment system to cope with the long-term cumulative effects.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of cattle and sheep breeding, and particularly relates to a method and system for evaluating the safety risk level of cattle and sheep breeding feed. Background Art

[0002] The evaluation of the safety risk level of cattle and sheep breeding feed refers to the process of classifying and evaluating the potential safety risks that cattle and sheep feed may bring during the breeding process through a systematic method. This evaluation aims to identify potential safety hazards that may occur in each link of feed production, storage, transportation, and use, analyze the impact degree of these risks on the health of cattle and sheep and the quality of the final agricultural products, so as to provide a scientific basis for breeding enterprises and regulatory departments and help reduce the safety risks brought by feed.

[0003] During the evaluation process, experts usually consider various factors, such as whether the source of feed ingredients is compliant, the rationality of nutritional components, the content levels of harmful substances (such as mycotoxins, heavy metals, and pesticide residues), etc. The evaluation results are generally divided into different risk levels, such as low, medium, and high risks, so that the farm can take appropriate measures accordingly. For example, high-risk feed may require more stringent testing or improvement of the feed formula, while low-risk feed can be used safely. This can help ensure the healthy development of the livestock industry and ensure the quality of cattle and sheep products and the food safety of consumers.

[0004] The existing technologies have the following deficiencies:

[0005] The current safety assessment methods for cattle and sheep breeding feed mainly focus on acute toxicity and ignore the cumulative effects of low-concentration chronic toxic substances after long-term ingestion. Substances such as trace heavy metals, mycotoxins, and antibiotic residues in feed, although they do not pose an obvious threat to health in the short term, will gradually accumulate in the bodies of cattle and sheep and may eventually lead to chronic diseases or organ damage. However, the existing assessment system lacks an accurate prediction model for the accumulation effects of chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep and cannot effectively predict the long-term effects of these chronic toxic substances. In addition, the risk level classification is usually static, lacking a dynamic adjustment mechanism and refined management means, and it is difficult to timely respond to the high risks that chronic toxic substances may evolve under specific conditions, resulting in potential safety hazards. Summary of the Invention

[0006] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a method and system for evaluating the safety risk level of cattle and sheep breeding feed to solve the deficiencies in the background art.

[0007] To achieve the above purpose, the present invention provides the following technical solution: A method for evaluating the safety risk level of cattle and sheep breeding feed, comprising the following steps:

[0008] S1: Identify different low-concentration chronic toxic substances in cattle and sheep feed through sample detection and data analysis. The low-concentration chronic toxic substances include heavy metals, mycotoxins, antibiotic residues, and environmental pollutants;

[0009] S2: Based on the identified low-concentration chronic toxic substances, obtain the bioaccumulation anomaly index and metabolic pathway deviation index for different low-concentration chronic toxic substances respectively, construct an accumulation effect model of chronic toxic substances in cattle and sheep, and predict the accumulation levels of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep;

[0010] S3: According to the accumulation effect model, evaluate the potential health risks of cattle and sheep ingesting chronic toxic substances. Divide the safety risks of the feed into different levels according to the evaluation results, and divide them into high-risk levels, medium-risk levels, and low-risk levels, and formulate corresponding management measures and feed usage restrictions for different risk levels;

[0011] S4: When the safety risk level of the feed is classified as the medium-risk level, further analyze the potential health risks of cattle and sheep ingesting chronic toxic substances within a fixed time period, and dynamically adjust the risk level of the feed according to the analysis results.

[0012] Preferably, in S2, based on the identified low-concentration chronic toxic substances, obtain the bioaccumulation anomaly index for different low-concentration chronic toxic substances. The method for obtaining the bioaccumulation anomaly index is as follows:

[0013] Define the influencing factors of the bioaccumulation process of toxic substances in cattle and sheep as nodes in the Bayesian network, including: intake I, absorption rate A, metabolism rate M, excretion rate E, and mark the concentration accumulation level of the toxic substance as C; set a conditional probability table for each variable node to describe the value of the variable and its probability under the given parent node conditions. According to the structure and conditional probability table of the Bayesian network, solve the marginal probability of the accumulation level through marginalization: P(C) = ∑ I ∑ A ∑ M ∑ E P(C|A,M,E)·P(A|I)·P(I)·P(M)·P(E); where P(C) represents the probability distribution of the accumulation of toxic substances in the body; set the normal accumulation range as C normal , and calculate the bioaccumulation anomaly index. The expression is: where BA is the bioaccumulation anomaly index.

[0014] Preferably, in S2, for the identified low-concentration chronic toxic substances, obtain the metabolic pathway deviation index for different low-concentration chronic toxic substances. The method for obtaining the metabolic pathway deviation index is as follows:

[0015] In a dynamic metabolic network model, the change equation expression of metabolite concentration C i (t) is as follows: where C i (t) represents the concentration of metabolite i at time t, f i is the rate equation of the metabolic reaction, k i is the reaction rate constant, n is the total number of metabolites, and each f i is defined based on chemical reaction kinetics. A dynamic model of toxic substances under normal metabolic conditions is established to obtain the normal metabolic parameters of toxic substances and the corresponding changes in the concentrations of normal metabolites The equation of the normal metabolic pathway is: Redetermine the metabolic parameters of the toxic substance and the changes in metabolite concentration An abnormal metabolic model is established, and the equation of the abnormal metabolic pathway is: To quantify the deviation between the normal and abnormal metabolic pathways, calculate the metabolic deviation D i (t) at time t, and the expression is: The metabolic pathway deviation index MP is the integral value of the concentration deviations of all metabolites within the time range, and the calculation expression is: where T is the total duration of the observation period and n is the number of metabolites.

[0016] Preferably, in S2, according to the obtained bioaccumulation abnormality index and metabolic pathway deviation index in different low-concentration chronic toxic substances, an accumulation effect model of chronic toxic substances in cattle and sheep is constructed to predict the accumulation levels of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep. Among them, the accumulation effect model is a machine learning model, specifically:

[0017] Convert the bioaccumulation abnormality index and the metabolic pathway deviation index into a comprehensive feature vector, use the comprehensive feature vector as the input of the machine learning model, use the machine learning model to predict the accumulation level value label of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep for each group of comprehensive feature vectors as the prediction target, use minimizing the sum of the prediction errors of the accumulation level value labels of all different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep as the training target, train the machine learning model until the sum of the prediction errors reaches convergence and then stop the model training, and determine the accumulation level value of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep according to the model output result. Among them, the machine learning model is a polynomial regression model.

[0018] Preferably, in S3, according to the cumulative effect model, the potential health risks of cattle and sheep ingesting chronic toxic substances are evaluated. According to the evaluation results, the safety risks of the feed are divided into different levels, namely high-risk level, medium-risk level, and low-risk level, and corresponding management measures and feed usage restrictions are formulated for different risk levels. Specifically:

[0019] Compare the obtained cumulative level values of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep with the gradient standard thresholds. The gradient standard thresholds include the first standard threshold and the second standard threshold, and the first standard threshold is less than the second standard threshold. Compare the cumulative level values of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep with the first standard threshold and the second standard threshold respectively;

[0020] If the cumulative level value of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep is greater than the second standard threshold, it indicates that the potential health risk of cattle and sheep ingesting chronic toxic substances is high. At this time, a first-level warning signal is generated, and the feed is classified as a high-risk level, and restrictive measures are immediately taken;

[0021] If the cumulative level value of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep is greater than or equal to the first standard threshold and less than or equal to the second standard threshold, it indicates that the potential health risk of cattle and sheep ingesting chronic toxic substances is medium. At this time, a second-level warning signal is generated, and the feed is classified as a medium-risk level, and monitoring is strengthened and the usage frequency is reduced;

[0022] If the cumulative level value of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep is less than the first standard threshold, it indicates that the potential health risk of cattle and sheep ingesting chronic toxic substances is low. At this time, a third-level warning signal is generated, and the feed is classified as a low-risk level, and the feed can continue to be used, but regular inspections should be carried out.

[0023] Preferably, in S4, when the safety risk level of the feed is classified as a medium-risk level, a further analysis is carried out on the potential health risks of cattle and sheep ingesting chronic toxic substances within a fixed time period. Specifically:

[0024] When the safety risk level of the feed is classified as a medium-risk level, that is, the cumulative level values of different chronic toxic substances generated within a fixed time period after ingestion by cattle and sheep are greater than or equal to the first standard threshold and less than or equal to the second standard threshold. Collect the cumulative level values of different chronic toxic substances generated in the subsequent fixed time period that are greater than or equal to the first standard threshold and less than or equal to the second standard threshold after ingestion by cattle and sheep, and establish a corresponding data set. Calculate the mean and standard deviation of the data set, conduct a further analysis on the potential health risks of cattle and sheep ingesting chronic toxic substances, and dynamically adjust the risk level of the feed according to the analysis results.

[0025] Preferably, if the average value of the accumulation level of different chronic toxic substances in the data set after ingestion by cattle and sheep is greater than or equal to the reference threshold of the average value of the accumulation level, and the standard deviation of the accumulation level is less than the reference threshold of the standard deviation of the accumulation level, if the average value of the accumulation level is high but the fluctuation is small, the risk level is upgraded to a high-risk level, and corresponding management measures are taken;

[0026] If the average value of the accumulation level is greater than or equal to the reference threshold of the average value of the accumulation level, and the standard deviation of the accumulation level is greater than or equal to the reference threshold of the standard deviation of the accumulation level, if the average value of the accumulation level is high but the standard deviation is large, the feed needs to be re-evaluated, temporarily maintained at a medium-risk level, and the monitoring of the accumulation fluctuation is strengthened;

[0027] If the average value of the accumulation level is less than the reference threshold of the average value of the accumulation level, and the standard deviation of the accumulation level is greater than or equal to the reference threshold of the standard deviation of the accumulation level, if the average value of the accumulation level is low but the standard deviation is large, the risk level is adjusted to a high-risk level, and control measures are strengthened;

[0028] If the average value of the accumulation level is less than the reference threshold of the average value of the accumulation level, and the standard deviation of the accumulation level is less than the reference threshold of the standard deviation of the accumulation level, if both the average value and the standard deviation of the accumulation level are low, the feed is maintained at a low-risk level, and the accumulation level is continuously monitored regularly.

[0029] The present invention also provides a safety risk level assessment system for cattle and sheep breeding feed, including a data collection module, a model prediction module, a risk assessment module, and a dynamic adjustment module;

[0030] Data collection module: By sample detection and data analysis, different low-concentration chronic toxic substances in cattle and sheep feed are identified. The low-concentration chronic toxic substances include heavy metals, mycotoxins, antibiotic residues, and environmental pollution substances;

[0031] Model prediction module: Based on the identified low-concentration chronic toxic substances, the bioaccumulation anomaly index and the metabolic pathway deviation index in different low-concentration chronic toxic substances are respectively obtained, an accumulation effect model of chronic toxic substances in cattle and sheep is constructed, and the accumulation level of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep is predicted;

[0032] Risk assessment module: According to the accumulation effect model, the potential health risks of cattle and sheep ingesting chronic toxic substances are evaluated. According to the evaluation results, the safety risks of the feed are divided into different levels, which are divided into high-risk levels, medium-risk levels, and low-risk levels, and corresponding management measures and feed use restrictions are formulated for different risk levels;

[0033] Dynamic adjustment module: When the safety risk level of the feed is classified as medium risk, further analyze the potential health risks of cattle and sheep ingesting chronic toxic substances within a fixed time period, and dynamically adjust the risk level of the feed according to the analysis results.

[0034] In the above technical solution, the technical effects and advantages provided by the present invention are as follows:

[0035] 1. By introducing the accumulation effect evaluation of chronic toxic substances, the present invention solves the problem that the existing feed safety evaluation system fails to consider the potential threat of long-term low-concentration toxic substances to the health of cattle and sheep. Through sample detection and data analysis, low-concentration chronic toxic substances in the feed, such as heavy metals, mycotoxins, antibiotic residues, etc., are identified, and an accumulation effect model is constructed based on the biological enrichment anomaly index and the metabolic pathway deviation index to predict the long-term accumulation level of these substances in the bodies of cattle and sheep. Combining machine learning technology, this model can accurately calculate the accumulation degree of chronic toxic substances and evaluate their health risks in real time.

[0036] 2. According to the evaluation results of the model, the feed safety risks are divided into three levels: high, medium, and low, and corresponding management measures and usage restrictions are formulated according to different levels. Especially in the evaluation of feeds with medium risk levels, the system can dynamically collect and analyze accumulation data, calculate the mean and standard deviation of the accumulation level, and then adjust the risk level of the feed in real time. If the fluctuation of the accumulation level is small and the mean is high, the risk level will be upgraded to a high-risk level and strengthened control measures will be taken; if the mean of the accumulation level is low and the fluctuation is large, the risk level will be dynamically adjusted to ensure timely warning and appropriate management means. This method can effectively prevent and control the long-term harm of chronic toxic substances in cattle and sheep feeds to health and improve the safety of breeding. Description of the Drawings

[0037] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present application or the prior art, the following will briefly introduce the drawings required for use in the embodiments. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments recorded in the present invention, and those of ordinary skill in the art can also obtain other drawings based on these drawings.

[0038] Figure 1 It is the method flow chart of the present invention.

[0039] Figure 2 It is the system module diagram of the present invention. Detailed Embodiments

[0040] To make the objectives, technical solutions, and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention clearer, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Apparently, the described embodiments are some, but not all, of the embodiments of the present invention. All other embodiments obtained by those of ordinary skill in the art based on the embodiments of the present invention without creative efforts shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.

[0041] Example 1. Please refer to Figure 1 and Figure 2 As shown, a method for evaluating the safety risk level of feed for raising cattle and sheep in this embodiment includes the following steps:

[0042] S1: Through sample testing and data analysis, different low-concentration chronic toxic substances in cattle and sheep feed are identified. The low-concentration chronic toxic substances include heavy metals, mycotoxins, antibiotic residues, and environmental pollution substances;

[0043] S2: Based on the identified low-concentration chronic toxic substances, the bioaccumulation anomaly index and metabolic pathway deviation index in different low-concentration chronic toxic substances are respectively obtained, an accumulation effect model of chronic toxic substances in cattle and sheep bodies is constructed, and the accumulation levels of different chronic toxic substances after being ingested by cattle and sheep are predicted;

[0044] S3: According to the accumulation effect model, the potential health risks of cattle and sheep ingesting chronic toxic substances are evaluated. According to the evaluation results, the safety risks of the feed are divided into different levels, which are divided into high-risk levels, medium-risk levels, and low-risk levels, and corresponding management measures and feed use restrictions are formulated for different risk levels;

[0045] S4: When the safety risk level of the feed is divided into the medium-risk level, the potential health risks of cattle and sheep ingesting chronic toxic substances within a fixed time period are further analyzed, and the risk level of the feed is dynamically adjusted according to the analysis results.

[0046] In S1, through sample testing and data analysis, different low-concentration chronic toxic substances in cattle and sheep feed are identified. The low-concentration chronic toxic substances include heavy metals, mycotoxins, antibiotic residues, and environmental pollution substances. Specifically:

[0047] In the safety assessment of feed for raising cattle and sheep, through sample testing and data analysis, low-concentration chronic toxic substances existing in the feed can be identified. These toxic substances include, but are not limited to, the following types:

[0048] Heavy metals: The feed may contain trace amounts of heavy metals, such as lead, cadmium, mercury, and arsenic. These heavy metals may not immediately have an acute impact on the health of cattle and sheep at low concentrations, but they will accumulate in the body after long-term ingestion, eventually leading to liver and kidney damage and potentially affecting the animal's immune system.

[0049] Mycotoxins: Improper storage or transportation of the feed may lead to mold contamination, resulting in the production of mycotoxins, such as aflatoxin, zearalenone, and ochratoxin. Even low concentrations of mycotoxins will interfere with the digestive and reproductive system functions of cattle and sheep after long-term accumulation, increasing the risk of infection.

[0050] Antibiotic residues: Due to the widespread use of antibiotics in the livestock industry, the feed may also contain small amounts of antibiotic residues. Long-term low-dose intake of antibiotics will make the pathogenic bacteria in the bodies of cattle and sheep develop drug resistance, affect the balance of their intestinal flora, reduce immunity, and ultimately may pose a threat of the spread of drug-resistant bacteria to human health.

[0051] Environmental pollutants: Some industrial pollutants, such as organic pollutants like polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), may enter the feed chain through air, water sources, or soil. These environmental pollutants are bioaccumulative even at low concentrations, and long-term accumulation in the bodies of cattle and sheep will have potential chronic toxic effects on their health.

[0052] In this application, through scientific sample testing and data analysis, these low-concentration chronic toxic substances can be identified and monitored, thereby providing data support for the safety risk grading of the feed and helping to formulate corresponding management measures to reduce their long-term health risks in the bodies of cattle and sheep.

[0053] S2: Based on the identified low-concentration chronic toxic substances, respectively obtain the bioaccumulation anomaly index and the metabolic pathway deviation index in different low-concentration chronic toxic substances, construct an accumulation effect model of chronic toxic substances in the bodies of cattle and sheep, and predict the accumulation levels of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep.

[0054] Based on the identified low-concentration chronic toxic substances, obtain the bioaccumulation anomaly index in different low-concentration chronic toxic substances. The method for obtaining the bioaccumulation anomaly index is as follows:

[0055] Define the influencing factors in the bioaccumulation process of toxic substances in the bodies of cattle and sheep as nodes in the Bayesian network, including: intake I, absorption rate A, metabolism rate M, excretion rate E, and mark the concentration accumulation level of toxic substances in specific organs or tissues as C;

[0056] Set conditional probability tables for each variable node to describe the possible values of the variable and its probabilities given the parent nodes. For example: Absorption rate P(A|I): the possible values of the absorption rate A given the intake I; Accumulation level P(C|A,M,E), the possible values of the accumulation level C given the absorption rate A, metabolic rate M, and excretion rate E. According to the structure of the Bayesian network and the conditional probability tables, the marginal probability of the accumulation level is solved by marginalization: P(C) = ∑ I ∑ A ∑ M ∑ E P(C|A,M,E)·P(A|I)·P(I)·P(M)·P(E); where P(C) represents the probability distribution of the accumulation of toxic substances in the body; The bioaccumulation anomaly index is an indicator to measure whether the accumulation level exceeds the normal range. The normal accumulation range is set as C normal , calculate the bioaccumulation anomaly index, and the expression is: where BA is the bioaccumulation anomaly index.

[0057] The larger the bioaccumulation anomaly index, the more significantly the accumulation level of chronic toxic substances in cattle and sheep exceeds the normal range, that is, there is an abnormal enrichment situation. This means that there are deviations in the processes of intake, absorption, metabolism, or excretion of toxic substances, resulting in the continuous accumulation of toxic substances in the body. A high bioaccumulation anomaly index indicates that cattle and sheep may face greater chronic health risks, which will increase the likelihood of problems such as organ damage, decreased immunity, and chronic poisoning in the long run. This abnormal enrichment situation may require immediate management measures, such as adjusting the feed composition or controlling the intake frequency, to reduce the risk.

[0058] On the contrary, the smaller the bioaccumulation anomaly index, the more the accumulation level of toxic substances in cattle and sheep is within the normal or lower range, and the accumulation process is stable and conforms to the normal physiological metabolism pattern. A lower bioaccumulation anomaly index indicates that the concentration of toxic substances in cattle and sheep is within a safe range and poses less threat to health. This usually means that the toxic substances in the feed are effectively metabolized and excreted without forming an enrichment risk. A low bioaccumulation anomaly index generally indicates that the feed has high safety, can continue to be used, and does not require special intervention measures.

[0059] For the identified low-concentration chronic toxic substances, obtain the metabolic pathway deviation index in different low-concentration chronic toxic substances. The method for obtaining the metabolic pathway deviation index is:

[0060] In the dynamic metabolic network model, the change of metabolite concentration C i (t) can usually be expressed as a set of ordinary differential equations, and the equation expression is: where C i (t represents the concentration of metabolite i at time t, fi is the rate equation of metabolic reactions, k i is the reaction rate constant, and n is the total number of metabolites. Each f i is usually defined based on chemical reaction kinetics (such as the law of mass action). Establish a dynamic model of toxic substances under normal metabolic conditions. Obtain the normal metabolic parameters of toxic substances through experimental data or literature and the corresponding changes in the concentrations of normal metabolites The equation for the normal metabolic pathway is: Under specific conditions (such as an increase in the intake of toxic substances or other environmental factors), re-measure the metabolic parameters of toxic substances and the changes in metabolite concentrations Establish an abnormal metabolism model. The equation for the abnormal metabolic pathway is: To quantify the deviation between the normal and abnormal metabolic pathways, calculate the metabolic deviation D i (t) at time t, and the expression is: The metabolic pathway deviation index MP is the integral value of the concentration deviations of all metabolites within the time range, and the calculation expression is: where T is the total duration of the observation period and n is the number of metabolites.

[0061] The larger the metabolic pathway deviation index, the more significant the deviation in the metabolic process of chronic toxic substances in cattle and sheep. Specifically, this indicates that the metabolite concentrations do not follow the normal physiological pathway for metabolism, but may instead show excessive accumulation, toxic reactions, or abnormal transformation. For example, certain toxic substances may cause a decrease in the metabolic capacity of the liver or kidneys, resulting in the ineffective elimination of toxic substances and their accumulation in the body. This situation usually increases the risk of chronic health problems such as organ damage, immune system disorders, and even cancer. Therefore, a larger metabolic pathway deviation index generally means a higher accumulation level of chronic toxic substances in cattle and sheep and an increased health risk.

[0062] Conversely, the smaller the metabolic pathway deviation index, the closer the metabolic process of chronic toxic substances in cattle and sheep is to the normal physiological pattern, the changes in metabolite concentrations tend to be stable, and there is no abnormal enrichment. At this time, the toxic substances can be processed according to the normal metabolic pathway and effectively excreted through the excretory system. A smaller metabolic pathway deviation index means that there is no significant accumulation of toxic substances and the metabolic process in the body is in a healthy balance state. This indicates a lower health risk for cattle and sheep, a lower likelihood of chronic poisoning or organ damage, and therefore a lower accumulation level of chronic toxic substances.

[0063] According to the bioaccumulation anomaly index and metabolic pathway deviation index in different low-concentration chronic toxic substances obtained, an accumulation effect model of chronic toxic substances in cattle and sheep is constructed to predict the accumulation levels of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep. Among them, the accumulation effect model is a machine learning model.

[0064] The bioaccumulation anomaly index and metabolic pathway deviation index are converted into a comprehensive feature vector, and the comprehensive feature vector is used as the input of the machine learning model. The machine learning model takes predicting the accumulation level value label of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep for each group of comprehensive feature vectors as the prediction target, and minimizing the sum of the prediction errors of the accumulation level value labels of all different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep as the training target. The machine learning model is trained until the sum of the prediction errors reaches convergence and then the model training is stopped. The accumulation level values of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep are determined according to the model output results. Among them, the machine learning model is a polynomial regression model.

[0065] The method for obtaining the accumulation level values of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep is as follows: from the comprehensive feature vector training data of the trained machine learning model, the corresponding function expression is obtained: LR = F(BA, MP); where F is the output function of the model, BA is the bioaccumulation anomaly index, MP is the metabolic pathway deviation index, and LR is the accumulation level value of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep.

[0066] S3: According to the accumulation effect model, the potential health risks of cattle and sheep ingesting chronic toxic substances are evaluated. According to the evaluation results, the safety risks of the feed are divided into different levels, which are divided into high-risk level, medium-risk level and low-risk level, and corresponding management measures and feed use restrictions are formulated for different risk levels.

[0067] The obtained accumulation level values of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep are compared with the gradient standard thresholds. The gradient standard thresholds include a first standard threshold and a second standard threshold, and the first standard threshold is less than the second standard threshold. The accumulation level values of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep are respectively compared with the first standard threshold and the second standard threshold;

[0068] If the accumulation level value of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep is greater than the second standard threshold, it indicates that the potential health risk of cattle and sheep ingesting chronic toxic substances is high. At this time, a first-level warning signal is generated, and the feed is classified as a high-risk level, and immediate restrictive measures are taken, such as prohibiting the use of the feed, or sending it to a treatment facility for cleaning;

[0069] If the accumulation level values of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep are greater than or equal to the first standard threshold and less than or equal to the second standard threshold, it indicates that the potential health risk of cattle and sheep ingesting chronic toxic substances is medium. At this time, a secondary warning signal is generated, and the feed is classified as a medium-risk level. It is recommended to strengthen monitoring, reduce the usage frequency, ensure the health of cattle and sheep, and avoid long-term use;

[0070] If the accumulation level values of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep are less than the first standard threshold, it indicates that the potential health risk of cattle and sheep ingesting chronic toxic substances is low. At this time, a tertiary warning signal is generated, and the feed is classified as a low-risk level. The feed can continue to be used, but regular inspections should be carried out to ensure that it does not exceed the safety threshold.

[0071] It should be noted here that the importance of the primary warning signal is greater than that of the secondary warning signal, and the importance of the secondary warning signal is greater than that of the tertiary warning signal. Relevant personnel can take corresponding handling measures according to different warning signal levels.

[0072] S4: When the safety risk level of the feed is classified as a medium-risk level, further analyze the potential health risk of cattle and sheep ingesting chronic toxic substances within a fixed time period, and dynamically adjust the risk level of the feed according to the analysis results.

[0073] When the safety risk level of the feed is classified as a medium-risk level, that is, the accumulation level values of different chronic toxic substances generated within a fixed time period after ingestion by cattle and sheep are greater than or equal to the first standard threshold and less than or equal to the second standard threshold. Collect the accumulation level values of different chronic toxic substances generated in the subsequent fixed time period that are greater than or equal to the first standard threshold and less than or equal to the second standard threshold after ingestion by cattle and sheep, and establish a corresponding data set. Calculate the mean and standard deviation of the data set, further analyze the potential health risk of cattle and sheep ingesting chronic toxic substances, and dynamically adjust the risk level of the feed according to the analysis results.

[0074] If the mean of the accumulation level values of different chronic toxic substances in the data set after ingestion by cattle and sheep is greater than or equal to the reference threshold of the mean of the accumulation level values, and the standard deviation of the accumulation level values is less than the reference threshold of the standard deviation of the accumulation level values. If the mean of the accumulation level values is high but the fluctuation is small, it indicates that the potential health risk of cattle and sheep is relatively high and stable. At this time, it can be considered to upgrade the risk level to a high-risk level and take corresponding management measures, such as strengthening monitoring or restricting use.

[0075] If the average value of the accumulation level is greater than or equal to the reference threshold of the average value of the accumulation level, and the standard deviation of the accumulation level is greater than or equal to the reference threshold of the standard deviation of the accumulation level, if the average value of the accumulation level is high but the standard deviation is large, it indicates that although the accumulation level is relatively high, there may be significant fluctuations in different time periods. This may mean that the risk is relatively unstable, and it is necessary to re-evaluate the feed, and it can be considered to temporarily maintain it at the medium-risk level and strengthen the monitoring of the accumulation fluctuations.

[0076] If the average value of the accumulation level is less than the reference threshold of the average value of the accumulation level, and the standard deviation of the accumulation level is greater than or equal to the reference threshold of the standard deviation of the accumulation level, if the average value of the accumulation level is low but the standard deviation is large, it indicates that the accumulation level is low, but its fluctuations are large, which may lead to a sudden increase in the accumulation value in some periods, posing potential risks. At this time, it is recommended to further analyze the reasons for the fluctuations, and it may be necessary to adjust the risk level to the high-risk level and strengthen the control measures.

[0077] If the average value of the accumulation level is less than the reference threshold of the average value of the accumulation level, and the standard deviation of the accumulation level is less than the reference threshold of the standard deviation of the accumulation level, if both the average value and the standard deviation of the accumulation level are low, it indicates that the accumulation level of the chronic toxic substances is low and stable. This usually means that the health risk is relatively small. It can be considered to keep the feed at the low-risk level and continue to regularly monitor the accumulation level.

[0078] In this embodiment, through sample detection and data analysis, low-concentration chronic toxic substances (such as heavy metals, mycotoxins, antibiotic residues, and environmental pollutants) in the feed are identified, and an accumulation effect model is constructed based on these substances to predict their accumulation levels in cattle and sheep. By calculating the bioaccumulation anomaly index and the metabolic pathway deviation index, the potential risks of chronic toxic substances to the health of cattle and sheep are evaluated, and according to the evaluation results, the safety risks of the feed are divided into three levels: high, medium, and low, and corresponding management measures and usage restrictions are formulated. When the feed risk level is medium risk, further analyze the accumulation level of chronic toxic substances within a fixed time period, and ensure the safety and health protection of feed use by dynamically adjusting the risk level.

[0079] Embodiment 2. The cattle and sheep breeding feed safety risk level evaluation system described in this embodiment includes a data collection module, a model prediction module, a risk assessment module, and a dynamic adjustment module;

[0080] Data collection module: Through sample detection and data analysis, different low-concentration chronic toxic substances in cattle and sheep feed are identified. The low-concentration chronic toxic substances include heavy metals, mycotoxins, antibiotic residues, and environmental pollutants;

[0081] Model prediction module: Based on the identified low-concentration chronic toxic substances, respectively obtain the bioaccumulation anomaly index and metabolic pathway deviation index in different low-concentration chronic toxic substances, construct an accumulation effect model of chronic toxic substances in cattle and sheep, and predict the accumulation levels of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep;

[0082] Risk assessment module: According to the accumulation effect model, evaluate the potential health risks of cattle and sheep ingesting chronic toxic substances, divide the safety risks of feed into different levels according to the evaluation results, divide them into high-risk levels, medium-risk levels and low-risk levels, and formulate corresponding management measures and feed usage restrictions for different risk levels;

[0083] Dynamic adjustment module: When the safety risk level of the feed is classified as the medium-risk level, further analyze the potential health risks of cattle and sheep ingesting chronic toxic substances within a fixed time period, and dynamically adjust the risk level of the feed according to the analysis results.

[0084] The above formulas are all dimensionless and take their numerical values for calculation. The formula is obtained by collecting a large amount of data and performing software simulation to obtain a formula that is closest to the actual situation. The preset parameters in the formula are set by those skilled in the art according to the actual situation.

[0085] It should be understood that the term "and / or" in this article is only a description of the association relationship of associated objects, indicating that there can be three relationships. For example, A and / or B can represent: A exists alone, A and B exist simultaneously, and B exists alone. These three situations, where A and B can be singular or plural. In addition, the character " / " in this article generally represents an "or" relationship between the associated objects before and after, but it may also represent an "and / or" relationship. Specifically, it can be understood by referring to the context before and after.

[0086] Those of ordinary skill in the art can realize that the units and algorithm steps of each example described in combination with the embodiments disclosed in this article can be implemented by electronic hardware, or a combination of computer software and electronic hardware. Whether these functions are executed in a hardware or software manner depends on the specific application and design constraints of the technical solution. Professional technicians can use different methods to implement the described functions for each specific application, but this implementation should not be considered to exceed the scope of this application.

[0087] The above is only the specific implementation manner of this application, but the protection scope of this application is not limited thereto. Any person skilled in the art within the technical scope disclosed in this application can easily think of changes or substitutions, and all should be covered within the protection scope of this application.

Claims

1. A method for assessing the safety risk level of cattle and sheep breeding feed, characterized in that: The steps include: S1: Identify different low-concentration chronic toxic substances in cattle and sheep feed through sample testing and data analysis. Low-concentration chronic toxic substances include heavy metals, mycotoxins, antibiotic residues and environmental pollutants; S2: Based on the identified low-concentration chronic toxic substances, obtain the abnormal bioaccumulation index and metabolic pathway deviation index of different low-concentration chronic toxic substances, build the accumulation effect model of chronic toxic substances in cattle and sheep, and predict the accumulation level of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep; The method for obtaining the abnormal bioaccumulation index is as follows: define the influencing factors of the bioaccumulation process of toxic substances in cattle and sheep as nodes in the Bayesian network, including: intake I, absorption rate A, metabolic rate M, excretion rate E, and mark the concentration accumulation level of toxic substances as C; set a conditional probability table for each variable node to describe the value of the variable and its probability under the given parent node condition, and solve the marginal probability of the accumulation level through marginalization according to the structure of the Bayesian network and the conditional probability table: P(C)=∑ I ∑ A ∑ M ∑ E P(C|A,M,E)·P(A|I)·P(I)·P(M)·P(E); where P(C) represents the probability distribution of accumulation of toxic substances in the body; the normal accumulation range is set as C normal , calculate the abnormal bioaccumulation index, the expression is: Where, BA is the bioaccumulation abnormality index; The metabolic pathway deviation index is obtained by: In the dynamic metabolic network model, the metabolite concentration C i The change equation of (t) is expressed as: Among them, C i (t) represents the concentration of metabolite i at time t, f i is the rate equation for the metabolic reaction, k i is the reaction rate constant, n is the total number of metabolites, and each f i Define based on chemical reaction kinetics, establish a dynamic model of toxic substances under normal metabolic conditions, and obtain normal metabolic parameters of toxic substances and its corresponding normal metabolite concentration changes The equation for the normal metabolic pathway is: Re-measurement of metabolic parameters of toxic substances and metabolite concentration changes The abnormal metabolic model was established, and the equation of the abnormal metabolic pathway was: To quantify the deviation between normal and abnormal metabolic pathways, the metabolic deviation D at time t was calculated. i (t), the expression is: The metabolic pathway deviation index MP is the integral value of all metabolite concentration deviations within the time range, and the calculation expression is: Where T is the total duration of the observation period, and n is the number of metabolites; S3: Based on the accumulation effect model, the potential health risks of chronic toxic substances ingested by cattle and sheep are evaluated, and the safety risks of feed are divided into different levels according to the evaluation results, namely high risk level, medium risk level and low risk level, and corresponding management measures and feed use restrictions are formulated for different risk levels; S4: When the safety risk level of the feed is classified as medium risk, further analysis is conducted on the potential health risks of chronic toxic substances ingested by cattle and sheep within a fixed time period, and the risk level of the feed is dynamically adjusted based on the analysis results.

2. A cattle and sheep breeding feed safety risk level assessment method according to claim 1, characterized in that: In S2, based on the abnormal bioaccumulation index and metabolic pathway deviation index of different low-concentration chronic toxic substances, the accumulation effect model of chronic toxic substances in cattle and sheep is constructed to predict the accumulation level of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep. The accumulation effect model is a machine learning model, specifically: The abnormal bioaccumulation index and metabolic pathway deviation index are converted into comprehensive feature vectors, which are used as inputs of the machine learning model. The machine learning model uses each group of comprehensive feature vectors to predict the accumulation level value labels of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep as the prediction target, and takes minimizing the sum of prediction errors of the accumulation level value labels of all different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep as the training target. The machine learning model is trained until the sum of prediction errors converges, and the model training is stopped. The accumulation level values ​​of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep are determined according to the model output results, wherein the machine learning model is a polynomial regression model.

3. A cattle and sheep breeding feed safety risk level assessment method according to claim 2, characterized in that: In S3, based on the accumulation effect model, the potential health risks of chronic toxic substances ingested by cattle and sheep are evaluated. According to the evaluation results, the safety risks of feed are divided into different levels, namely high risk level, medium risk level and low risk level, and corresponding management measures and feed use restrictions are formulated for different risk levels, specifically: The obtained accumulation level values ​​of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep are compared with the gradient standard threshold value, the gradient standard threshold value includes a first standard threshold value and a second standard threshold value, and the first standard threshold value is less than the second standard threshold value, and the accumulation level values ​​of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep are compared with the first standard threshold value and the second standard threshold value respectively; If the accumulation level of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep is greater than the second standard threshold, it means that the potential health risk of ingestion of chronic toxic substances by cattle and sheep is high. At this time, a first-level warning signal is generated, and the feed is classified as a high-risk level, and restrictive measures are taken immediately; If the accumulation level of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep is greater than or equal to the first standard threshold and less than or equal to the second standard threshold, it means that the potential health risk of ingestion of chronic toxic substances by cattle and sheep is medium. At this time, a secondary warning signal is generated, and the feed is classified as medium risk level, and monitoring is strengthened to reduce the frequency of use; If the accumulation level of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep is less than the first standard threshold, it means that the potential health risk of cattle and sheep ingesting chronic toxic substances is low. At this time, a third-level warning signal is generated, and the feed is classified as a low-risk level. The feed can continue to be used, but it should be checked regularly.

4. A method for assessing the safety risk level of cattle and sheep breeding feed according to claim 3, characterized in that: In S4, when the safety risk level of feed is classified as medium risk, further analysis is conducted on the potential health risks of chronic toxic substances ingested by cattle and sheep within a fixed time period, specifically: When the safety risk level of the feed is classified as a medium risk level, that is, the accumulation level values ​​of different chronic toxic substances generated within a fixed time period after ingestion by cattle and sheep are greater than or equal to the first standard threshold and less than or equal to the second standard threshold, the accumulation level values ​​of different chronic toxic substances generated within a subsequent fixed time period after ingestion by cattle and sheep that are greater than or equal to the first standard threshold and less than or equal to the second standard threshold are collected, and a corresponding data set is established, the mean and standard deviation of the data set are calculated, the potential health risks of chronic toxic substances ingested by cattle and sheep are further analyzed, and the risk level of the feed is dynamically adjusted according to the analysis results.

5. A method for assessing the safety risk level of cattle and sheep breeding feed according to claim 4, characterized in that: If the mean value of the accumulation level of different chronic toxic substances in the data set after ingestion by cattle and sheep is greater than or equal to the reference threshold of the mean value of the accumulation level, and the standard deviation of the accumulation level is less than the reference threshold of the standard deviation of the accumulation level, if the mean value of the accumulation level is high but the fluctuation is small, the risk level will be raised to a high risk level and corresponding management measures will be taken; If the mean of the accumulation level is greater than or equal to the reference threshold of the mean of the accumulation level, and the standard deviation of the accumulation level is greater than or equal to the reference threshold of the standard deviation of the accumulation level, if the mean of the accumulation level is high but the standard deviation is large, the feed needs to be re-evaluated, temporarily maintained at the medium risk level, and the monitoring of accumulation fluctuations needs to be strengthened; If the mean of the accumulated level value is less than the reference threshold of the mean of the accumulated level value, and the standard deviation of the accumulated level value is greater than or equal to the reference threshold of the standard deviation of the accumulated level value, if the mean of the accumulated level value is low but the standard deviation is large, adjust the risk level to a high risk level and strengthen control measures; If the mean accumulation level value is less than the reference threshold for the mean accumulation level value, and the standard deviation of the accumulation level value is less than the reference threshold for the standard deviation of the accumulation level value, if both the mean accumulation level value and the standard deviation are low, keep the feed at a low risk level and continue to monitor the accumulation level regularly.

6. A cattle and sheep breeding feed safety risk level assessment system, used to implement a cattle and sheep breeding feed safety risk level assessment method according to any one of claims 1 to 5, characterized in that: It includes data collection module, model prediction module, risk assessment module and dynamic adjustment module; Data collection module: Identify different low-concentration chronic toxic substances in cattle and sheep feed through sample testing and data analysis. Low-concentration chronic toxic substances include heavy metals, mycotoxins, antibiotic residues and environmental pollutants; Model prediction module: Based on the identified low-concentration chronic toxic substances, the abnormal bioaccumulation index and metabolic pathway deviation index of different low-concentration chronic toxic substances are obtained respectively, and the accumulation effect model of chronic toxic substances in cattle and sheep is constructed to predict the accumulation level of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep; Risk assessment module: Based on the cumulative effect model, the potential health risks of chronic toxic substances ingested by cattle and sheep are assessed. According to the assessment results, the safety risks of feed are divided into different levels, namely high risk level, medium risk level and low risk level, and corresponding management measures and feed use restrictions are formulated for different risk levels; Dynamic adjustment module: When the safety risk level of the feed is classified as medium risk, further analysis is conducted on the potential health risks of chronic toxic substances ingested by cattle and sheep within a fixed time period, and the risk level of the feed is dynamically adjusted based on the analysis results.

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