Power distribution system line risk assessment method and device, medium and electronic equipment

Abstract

The invention discloses a power distribution system line risk assessment method and device, a medium and electronic equipment, and relates to the technical field of power distribution line risk assessment, and the method comprises the steps: determining each real-time operation factor and each potential risk factor which are used for assessing the safety risk of a target power distribution system; performing operation risk assessment on the target power distribution system based on the real-time operation data of the target power distribution system and each real-time operation factor to obtain a real-time operation risk parameter value of the target power distribution system; performing grid structure risk assessment on the target power distribution system based on a preset network architecture of the target power distribution system and the potential risk factors to obtain grid structure risk parameter values of the target power distribution system; and performing calculation processing based on the real-time operation risk parameter value and the grid structure risk parameter value to obtain a target risk value of the target power distribution system. According to the method, the accuracy of power distribution system risk assessment can be improved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of power distribution line risk assessment, and in particular to a power distribution system line risk assessment method, device, medium and electronic equipment. Background Art

[0002] Traditional risk assessment methods for distribution lines are usually performed in offline scenarios. However, due to the large amount of computation required for offline analysis methods, online assessments are currently mainly performed by simplifying equipment failure models to calculate risk index values ​​and grading and displaying accident consequences. This method does not consider risk factors comprehensively enough and is difficult to provide further support for risk warnings, scheduling operations, and maintenance decisions. It also ignores the communication relationship between network feeders. Obviously, traditional assessment methods cannot accurately quantify system risks. Summary of the invention

[0003] In view of this, the present invention provides a method, device, medium and electronic equipment for risk assessment of power distribution system lines, the main purpose of which is to solve the current problem of inaccurate risk assessment of power distribution lines.

[0004] To solve the above problems, the present application provides a method for risk assessment of power distribution system lines, comprising:

[0005] Determine the real-time operating factors and potential risk factors used to assess the safety risk of the target distribution system;

[0006] Performing an operation risk assessment on the target power distribution system based on the real-time operation data of the target power distribution system and each of the real-time operation factors to obtain a real-time operation risk parameter value of the target power distribution system;

[0007] Performing a grid structure risk assessment on the target power distribution system based on the preset network architecture of the target power distribution system and each of the potential risk factors to obtain a grid structure risk parameter value of the target power distribution system;

[0008] Calculation and processing are performed based on the real-time operation risk parameter value and the grid structure risk parameter value to obtain a target risk value of the target power distribution system.

[0009] Optionally, performing an operation risk assessment on the target power distribution system based on the real-time operation data of the target power distribution system and each of the real-time operation factors to obtain a real-time operation risk parameter value of the target power distribution system specifically includes:

[0010] Performing calculations based on the real-time operating data of the target power distribution system to obtain first parameter values ​​corresponding to the real-time operating factors;

[0011] Perform risk calculation based on each of the first parameter values ​​to obtain a first risk value corresponding to each of the real-time operation factors;

[0012] Based on each of the first parameter values, a first weight coefficient corresponding to each of the real-time operation factors is obtained by performing calculation processing using a coefficient of variation objective assignment method;

[0013] Calculation is performed based on each of the first risk values ​​and each of the first weight coefficients to obtain a real-time operation risk parameter value of the target power distribution system.

[0014] Optionally, it is characterized in that the calculation and processing based on the real-time operation data of the target power distribution system to obtain the first parameter value corresponding to each of the real-time operation factors specifically includes:

[0015] Calculate and process based on the load power of each line of the target power distribution system and the maximum load capacity corresponding to each line to obtain the load rate corresponding to each line;

[0016] Calculate and process the voltage value and rated voltage value corresponding to the same bus of the target power distribution system to obtain a bus voltage deviation rate corresponding to the same bus;

[0017] Calculate and process based on a first quantity value of each of the lines of the target power distribution system being overloaded and a second quantity value of each of the lines to obtain a proportion of overloaded equipment;

[0018] Calculating and processing based on a third quantity value of the busbars of the target power distribution system being in an over-limit state and a fourth quantity value of the busbars of the target power distribution system to obtain an over-limit busbar ratio;

[0019] Calculating and processing based on the number of system nodes of the target power distribution system, the preset important factors of each system node, the active power loss of each node, and the initial active power corresponding to each system node to obtain a system load loss rate;

[0020] Calculating and processing based on a fifth number value of target importance users of the target power distribution system and a sixth number value of power outage users among the target importance users, to obtain a power outage ratio of important users;

[0021] The real-time operating factors include load rate, bus voltage deviation rate, overload equipment ratio, over-limit bus ratio, system load loss rate and power outage ratio of important users.

[0022] Optionally, the performing a grid structure risk assessment on the target power distribution system based on the preset network architecture of the target power distribution system and each of the potential risk factors to obtain a grid structure risk parameter value of the target power distribution system specifically includes:

[0023] Performing calculations based on the real-time fault data of the target power distribution system to obtain a second parameter value corresponding to each of the potential risk factors;

[0024] Performing calculation based on each of the second parameter values ​​to obtain an expected value of risk consequence;

[0025] Based on the preset network architecture, a preset fault probability model is used to perform calculation processing to obtain a fault probability value corresponding to each of the lines;

[0026] Calculation is performed based on the failure probability value of each of the lines, the expected value of the risk consequence, the number of transfer paths after each of the lines fails, and the preset level factor corresponding to each of the lines to obtain the grid structure risk parameter value of the target distribution system;

[0027] Among them, each of the potential risk factors includes energy loss rate, user-hour household loss rate and load transfer rate.

[0028] Optionally, the performing calculation based on each of the second parameter values ​​to obtain an expected value of risk consequences specifically includes:

[0029] Determine whether each of the lines has a power transfer condition based on a preset network architecture of the target power distribution system;

[0030] When the target line has a power transfer situation, the expected value of the risk consequence corresponding to the target line is obtained by performing calculation based on the energy loss rate, the user-hour household loss rate, the load transfer rate, the energy loss weight, the user-hour household loss weight and the load transfer weight;

[0031] When there is no power transfer situation on the target line, calculation and processing are performed based on the energy loss rate, the user-hour household loss rate, the energy loss weight and the user-hour household loss weight to obtain the expected value of the risk consequence corresponding to the target line.

[0032] Optionally, the calculation based on the failure probability value of each line, the expected value of the risk consequence, the number of transfer paths after each line fails, and the preset level factor corresponding to each line to obtain the grid structure risk parameter value of the target distribution system specifically includes:

[0033] Calculating and processing based on the failure probability value and the expected value of risk consequence corresponding to the same line to obtain a first risk value corresponding to the same line;

[0034] Performing calculation based on the first risk value and the preset level factor respectively corresponding to each of the lines to obtain an initial grid structure risk parameter value of the target power distribution system;

[0035] Determine the number of power transfer paths corresponding to each of the lines to obtain a determination result;

[0036] When the judgment result is that the number of power transfer paths of each of the lines is equal to zero, the initial grid structure risk parameter value is determined as the grid structure risk parameter value of the target power distribution system;

[0037] When the judgment result is that there is more than one power transfer path and the number of the power transfer paths is greater than zero, the power transfer paths corresponding to the lines are screened to obtain the target power transfer paths corresponding to the lines;

[0038] Calculating and processing the risk value of each target transfer path to obtain each second risk value;

[0039] Based on each of the second risk values, the number of power transfer paths corresponding to each line, the total number of predetermined lines of the target distribution system and each line, calculation and processing are performed respectively to obtain the grid structure risk parameter value of the target distribution system.

[0040] Optionally, the performing calculation based on the real-time operation risk parameter value and the grid structure risk parameter value to obtain the target risk value of the target power distribution system specifically includes:

[0041] Based on the real-time operation risk parameter value and the grid structure risk parameter value, a coefficient of variation objective value assignment method is used to calculate and process, so as to obtain an operation risk weight value coefficient corresponding to the operation risk parameter value and a grid structure risk weight coefficient corresponding to the grid structure risk parameter value;

[0042] The target risk value of the target power distribution system is obtained by performing calculation based on the real-time operation risk parameter value, the grid structure risk parameter value, the operation risk weight value coefficient and the grid structure risk weight coefficient.

[0043] In order to solve the above problems, the present application provides a power distribution system line risk assessment device, comprising:

[0044] A determination module, used to determine various real-time operating factors and various potential risk factors for evaluating the safety risk of the target power distribution system;

[0045] An operation risk assessment module, used to perform an operation risk assessment on the target power distribution system based on the real-time operation data of the target power distribution system and each of the real-time operation factors, and obtain a real-time operation risk parameter value of the target power distribution system;

[0046] A grid structure risk assessment module, used to perform a grid structure risk assessment on the target power distribution system based on a preset network architecture of the target power distribution system and each of the potential risk factors, and obtain a grid structure risk parameter value of the target power distribution system;

[0047] A calculation module is used to perform calculations based on the real-time operation risk parameter value and the grid structure risk parameter value to obtain a target risk value of the target power distribution system.

[0048] In order to solve the above problem, the present application provides a storage medium, characterized in that the storage medium stores a computer program, and when the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps of the above-mentioned distribution system line risk assessment method are implemented.

[0049] In order to solve the above problems, the present application provides an electronic device, characterized in that it includes at least a memory and a processor, the memory stores a computer program, and the processor implements the steps of the above-mentioned distribution system line risk assessment method when executing the computer program on the memory.

[0050] Beneficial effects of the present application: In order to solve the problem that the traditional method using offline assessment methods cannot accurately quantify system risks, the present application uses an online perspective based on real-time operating factors to evaluate the operating risks of urban medium-voltage distribution networks. From the real-time operating factors of equipment maximum load rate, bus voltage maximum deviation rate, overload equipment ratio, over-limit bus ratio, and important user power outage ratio, a risk indicator structure based on real-time factors is constructed to obtain a real-time quantitative value of operating risk. Traditional risk assessment methods ignore the connection relationship between network feeders. The present application evaluates the grid structure risk of urban medium-voltage distribution networks based on potential factors. From the potential risk factor indicators of energy loss rate, user-hour household loss rate, and load transfer rate, a risk indicator structure based on potential factors is constructed to obtain a quantitative value of potential grid risk. The target risk value of the entire system obtained by calculating and processing the real-time quantitative value of operating risk, the real-time operating risk parameter value, and the quantitative value of potential grid risk, the grid structure risk parameter value, is more accurate.

[0051] The above description is only an overview of the technical solution of the present invention. In order to more clearly understand the technical means of the present invention, it can be implemented according to the contents of the specification. In order to make the above and other purposes, features and advantages of the present invention more obvious and easy to understand, the specific implementation methods of the present invention are listed below. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0052] Various other advantages and benefits will become apparent to those of ordinary skill in the art by reading the detailed description of the preferred embodiments below. The accompanying drawings are only for the purpose of illustrating the preferred embodiments and are not to be considered as limiting the present invention. Moreover, the same reference symbols are used throughout the accompanying drawings to represent the same components. In the accompanying drawings:

[0053] Figure 1 A schematic diagram of a flow chart of a power distribution system line risk assessment method provided in an embodiment of the present application is shown;

[0054] Figure 2 A schematic diagram of a flow chart of a power distribution system line risk assessment method provided by another embodiment of the present application is shown;

[0055] Figure 3 The electrical connection diagram of the planning scheme 1 of the embodiment of the present application is shown;

[0056] Figure 4 The electrical wiring diagram of the planning scheme 2 of the embodiment of the present application is shown;

[0057] Figure 5 A structural block diagram of a power distribution system line risk assessment device provided in another embodiment of the present application is shown. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0058] Various aspects and features of the present application are described herein with reference to the accompanying drawings.

[0059] It should be understood that various modifications may be made to the embodiments of the present application. Therefore, the above description should not be considered as limiting, but only as an example of an embodiment. Other modifications within the scope and spirit of the present application will occur to those skilled in the art.

[0060] The accompanying drawings, which are incorporated in and constitute a part of the specification, illustrate embodiments of the present application and, together with the general description of the present application given above and the detailed description of the embodiments given below, serve to explain the principles of the present application.

[0061] These and other characteristics of the present application will become apparent from the following description of a preferred form of embodiment given as a non-limiting example with reference to the accompanying drawings.

[0062] It should also be understood that although the present application has been described with reference to some specific examples, those skilled in the art will be able to readily implement many other equivalent forms of the present application.

[0063] The above and other aspects, features and advantages of the present application will become more apparent in view of the following detailed description when taken in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0064] Specific embodiments of the present application are described hereinafter with reference to the accompanying drawings; however, it should be understood that the embodiments applied for are merely examples of the present application, which may be implemented in a variety of ways. Well-known and / or repeated functions and structures are not described in detail to avoid unnecessary or redundant details that obscure the present application. Therefore, the specific structural and functional details applied for herein are not intended to be limiting, but merely serve as a basis and representative basis for the claims to teach those skilled in the art to use the present application in a variety of ways with substantially any suitable detailed structure.

[0065] This specification may use the phrases "in one embodiment," "in another embodiment," "in yet another embodiment," or "in other embodiments," all of which may refer to one or more of the same or different embodiments according to the present application.

[0066] The present application embodiment provides a method for risk assessment of power distribution system lines, such as Figure 1 As shown, including:

[0067] Step S101: determining various real-time operating factors and various potential risk factors for evaluating the safety risk of a target power distribution system;

[0068] During the specific implementation of this step, the method of the present application can be applied to risk assessment of urban medium-voltage distribution network lines. In order to comprehensively reflect the operating risk level of the medium-voltage distribution network, the present application selects real-time operating indicators from the perspective of real-time operating factors. The real-time operating factors include: load rate, bus voltage deviation rate, proportion of overloaded equipment, proportion of over-limit bus, system load loss rate and proportion of power outages for important users; the potential risk factors include energy loss rate, user-hour loss rate and load transfer rate.

[0069] Step S102: performing an operation risk assessment on the target power distribution system based on the real-time operation data of the target power distribution system and each of the real-time operation factors to obtain a real-time operation risk parameter value of the target power distribution system;

[0070] In the specific implementation process of this step, calculations are performed based on the real-time operation data of the target power distribution system to obtain the first parameter value corresponding to each of the real-time operation factors; risk calculations are performed based on each of the first parameter values ​​to obtain the first risk value corresponding to each of the real-time operation factors; calculations are performed based on each of the first parameter values ​​using the objective value assignment method of the coefficient of variation to obtain the first weight coefficient corresponding to each of the real-time operation factors; calculations are performed based on each of the first risk values ​​and each of the first weight coefficients to obtain the real-time operation risk parameter value of the target power distribution system. The traditional offline evaluation method is converted into an online evaluation, which improves the accuracy of the evaluation.

[0071] Step S103: performing a grid structure risk assessment on the target power distribution system based on the preset network architecture of the target power distribution system and each of the potential risk factors to obtain a grid structure risk parameter value of the target power distribution system;

[0072] During the specific implementation of this step, calculations are performed based on the real-time fault data of the target distribution system to obtain second parameter values ​​corresponding to each of the potential risk factors; calculations are performed based on each of the second parameter values ​​to obtain expected values ​​of risk consequences; calculations are performed based on a preset network architecture using a preset fault probability model to obtain fault probability values ​​corresponding to each of the lines; calculations are performed based on the fault probability values ​​of each of the lines, the expected values ​​of risk consequences, the number of transfer paths after a fault occurs on each of the lines, and the preset grade factors corresponding to each of the lines to obtain grid structure risk parameter values ​​for the target distribution system, taking into account the connection relationship between feeders to improve the accuracy of the final risk assessment of the entire system.

[0073] Step S104: performing calculations based on the real-time operation risk parameter value and the grid structure risk parameter value to obtain a target risk value of the target power distribution system.

[0074] During the specific implementation of this step, calculation and processing are performed based on the real-time operation risk parameter value and the grid structure risk parameter value using the objective assignment method of the coefficient of variation to obtain the operation risk weight value coefficient corresponding to the operation risk parameter value and the grid structure risk weight coefficient corresponding to the grid structure risk parameter value; calculation and processing are performed based on the real-time operation risk parameter value, the grid structure risk parameter value, the operation risk weight value coefficient and the grid structure risk weight coefficient to obtain the target risk value of the target distribution system.

[0075] In order to solve the problem that the traditional method using offline assessment methods cannot accurately quantify system risks, this application uses real-time operating factors to evaluate the operating risks of urban medium-voltage distribution networks from an online perspective. A risk indicator structure based on real-time factors is constructed from real-time operating factors such as the highest load rate of equipment, the maximum deviation rate of bus voltage, the proportion of overloaded equipment, the proportion of over-limit bus, and the proportion of power outages for important users, and a real-time quantitative value of operating risk is obtained. Traditional risk assessment methods ignore the connection relationship between network feeders. This application evaluates the grid structure risk of urban medium-voltage distribution networks based on potential factors. From the potential risk factor indicators of energy loss rate, user-hour loss rate, and load transfer rate, a risk indicator structure based on potential factors is constructed to obtain a quantitative value of potential grid risk. The target risk value of the entire system obtained by calculating and processing the real-time quantitative value of operating risk, the real-time operating risk parameter value, and the quantitative value of potential grid risk, the grid structure risk parameter value, is more accurate.

[0076] Another embodiment of the present application provides another distribution system line risk assessment method, such as Figure 2 As shown, including:

[0077] Step S201: determining various real-time operating factors and various potential risk factors for evaluating the safety risk of the target power distribution system;

[0078] During the specific implementation of this step, the method of the present application can be applied to risk assessment of urban medium-voltage distribution network lines. In order to comprehensively reflect the operating risk level of the medium-voltage distribution network, the present application selects real-time operating indicators from the perspective of real-time operating factors. The real-time operating factors include: load rate, bus voltage deviation rate, proportion of overloaded equipment, proportion of over-limit bus, system load loss rate and proportion of power outages for important users; the potential risk factors include energy loss rate, user-hour loss rate and load transfer rate.

[0079] Step S202: performing calculations based on the real-time operation data of the target power distribution system to obtain first parameter values ​​corresponding to the real-time operation factors;

[0080] In the specific implementation process of this step, calculation and processing are performed based on the load power of each line of the target distribution system and the maximum load capacity corresponding to each line to obtain the load rate corresponding to each line; the load rate ρ F.k The mathematical expression of can be expressed as follows:

[0081]

[0082] Among them, ρ F.k is the load rate of the kth line; P k is the load power of the kth line; S kN is the maximum load capacity of the kth line. Based on the voltage value and rated voltage value corresponding to the same bus of the target power distribution system, the bus voltage deviation rate corresponding to the same bus is obtained; the bus voltage deviation rate ρ m.i The mathematical expression of can be expressed as follows:

[0083]

[0084] Among them, ρ m.i is the bus voltage deviation rate u of the i-th bus i is the voltage value of the ith bus; u i N is the rated voltage value of the i-th bus. Based on the first quantity value of each line of the target power distribution system being overloaded and the second quantity value of each line, a calculation is performed to obtain the overload equipment ratio; the overload equipment ratio ρN.T The mathematical expression of can be expressed as follows:

[0085]

[0086] Among them, ρ N.T The ratio of heavy-load equipment in the line under heavy load, and the lines and transformers with a load rate exceeding 80% are called heavy-load equipment; n T.c is the first quantity value of the line being overloaded; n T The third number value of the busbars in the target power distribution system that are in an over-limit state and the fourth number value of the busbars in the target power distribution system are calculated and processed to obtain the over-limit busbar ratio; the over-limit busbar ratio ρ N.m The mathematical expression of can be expressed as follows:

[0087]

[0088] Among them, ρ N.m is the busbar ratio that exceeds the limit; n m.c The third quantity value of the busbar in the over-limit state; n m The total number of buses in the target power distribution system, i.e., the fourth quantity value, is calculated based on the number of system nodes in the target power distribution system, the preset important factors of each system node, the active power loss of each node, and the initial active power corresponding to each system node to obtain the system load loss rate; the system load loss rate ρ E The mathematical expression of can be expressed as follows:

[0089]

[0090] Among them, ρ E is the system load loss rate; γ L.j is the preset importance factor of the jth node, the value range of the importance factor is greater than zero and less than 1, and the value of the importance factor can be set according to actual needs. The more important the user is, the larger the value of the preset importance factor is, and vice versa; ΔP L.j is the active power loss of the jth node; P (0) L.j is the initial active power of the jth node; N S Based on the fifth number value of the target importance users of the target power distribution system and the sixth number value of the power outage users among the target importance users, the power outage ratio of important users is obtained; the power outage ratio of important users ρ N.z The mathematical expression of can be shown as follows:

[0091]

[0092] Among them, ρ N.z Power outage ratio for important users; n z.c A sixth number value of power-off users among the target importance users; n z is the fifth quantitative value of the target importance users of the target distribution system; each of the real-time operating factors includes load rate, bus voltage deviation rate, overload equipment ratio, over-limit bus ratio, system load loss rate and power outage ratio of important users.

[0093] Step S203: performing risk calculation based on each of the first parameter values ​​to obtain a first risk value corresponding to each of the real-time operation factors;

[0094] In the specific implementation process of this step, screening is performed based on the load rate corresponding to each of the lines to obtain a first risk value corresponding to the load rate of the real-time operation factor; the mathematical expression of the first risk value corresponding to the load rate of the real-time operation factor can be expressed as the following formula (7):

[0095] R F =ρ F.max (7)

[0096] Among them, R F is the first risk value corresponding to the load rate; ρ F.max is the maximum load rate among the load rates corresponding to the lines. Based on the bus voltage deviation rate corresponding to each bus, a screening process is performed to obtain a first risk value corresponding to the bus voltage deviation rate of the real-time operation factor; the mathematical expression of the first risk value corresponding to the bus voltage deviation rate of the real-time operation factor can be expressed as the following formula (8):

[0097] R m =ρ m.max (8)

[0098] Among them, R m is the first risk value corresponding to the bus voltage deviation rate of the real-time operation factor; ρ m.max is the maximum bus voltage deviation rate among the bus voltage deviation rates. N.T The first risk value corresponding to the proportion of overloaded equipment caused by the real-time operation factor is determined; the mathematical expression of the first risk value corresponding to the proportion of overloaded equipment caused by the real-time operation factor can be expressed as the following formula (9):

[0099] R N.T =ρ N.T (9)

[0100] Among them, R N.T is the first risk value corresponding to the proportion of overloaded equipment in real-time operation factors; ρN.T is the proportion of overloaded equipment. The real-time operating factor over-limit bus ratio is determined as the first risk value corresponding to the real-time operating factor over-limit bus ratio; the mathematical expression of the first risk value corresponding to the real-time operating factor over-limit bus ratio can be expressed as the following formula (10):

[0101] R N.m =ρ N.m (10)

[0102] Among them, R N.m is the first risk value corresponding to the proportion of the busbar exceeding the limit of the real-time operation factor; ρ N.m is the over-limit bus ratio. The real-time operation factor system load loss rate is determined as the first risk value corresponding to the real-time operation factor system load loss rate; the mathematical expression of the first risk value corresponding to the real-time operation factor system load loss rate can be expressed as the following formula (11):

[0103] R E =ρ E (11)

[0104] Among them, R E is the first risk value corresponding to the system load loss rate of the real-time operation factor; ρ E is the system load loss rate. The power outage ratio of important users of the real-time operation factor is determined as the first risk value corresponding to the power outage ratio of important users of the real-time operation factor; the mathematical expression of the first risk value corresponding to the power outage ratio of important users of the real-time operation factor can be expressed as the following formula (12):

[0105] R N.z =ρ N.z (12)

[0106] Among them, R N.z is the first risk value corresponding to the power outage ratio of important users of real-time operation factors; ρ N.z Proportion of power outages for important users.

[0107] Step S204: performing calculation processing based on each of the first parameter values ​​using a coefficient of variation objective assignment method to obtain a first weight coefficient corresponding to each of the real-time operation factors;

[0108] In the specific implementation process of this step, the objective value assignment method of the coefficient of variation is a method for determining the weight of each indicator based on statistical principles. This method assigns different weights by calculating the degree of variation of each indicator data, that is, the coefficient of variation. The weight coefficient of each real-time operation factor is calculated and processed by the objective value assignment method of the coefficient of variation using each of the first parameter values ​​to obtain the first weight coefficient ω corresponding to each of the real-time operation factors. 1 ,ω 2 ,ω3 ,ω 4 ,ω 5 ,ω 6 .

[0109] Step S205: performing calculation processing based on each of the first risk values ​​and each of the first weight coefficients to obtain a real-time operation risk parameter value of the target power distribution system;

[0110] In the specific implementation process of this step, the real-time operation risk parameter value R Y The mathematical expression of can be expressed as follows:

[0111] R Y =ω 1 R F +ω 2 R m. +ω 3 R N.T +ω 4 R N.m +ω 5 R E +ω 6 R N.z (13)

[0112] Among them, R Y To run the risk parameter value in real time.

[0113] Step S206: performing calculation processing based on the real-time fault data of the target power distribution system to obtain a second parameter value corresponding to each of the potential risk factors;

[0114] In the specific implementation process of this step, based on the initial time of the fault t 0 , fault clearing time t f , Fault duration T F =t f -t 0 , the power loss value P of each user after the failure Li , the initial power value P of each user Tj , the predetermined importance factor β corresponding to each user Li , and the important factor range interval β corresponding to each of the users Tj , the number of users lost after the failure occurs N LC 、Total number of users N TC Calculation is performed to obtain a second parameter value corresponding to the energy loss rate of the potential risk factor; the mathematical expression of the second parameter value corresponding to the energy loss rate can be expressed as the following formula (14):

[0115]

[0116] Among them, SEL is the second parameter value corresponding to the energy loss rate. Based on the initial fault time t 0 , fault clearing time t f , Fault duration T F =t f -t 0 , the predetermined importance factor β corresponding to each user Li , and the important factor range interval β corresponding to each of the users Tj , the number of users lost after the failure occurs N LC 、Total number of users N TC A calculation process is performed to obtain a second parameter value corresponding to the potential risk factor user-hour household loss rate; the calculation formula of the second parameter value corresponding to the user-hour household loss rate can be expressed as the following formula (15):

[0117]

[0118] Among them, S NL The second parameter value corresponding to the household loss rate when the number of users is the user. Based on the active power P successfully transferred by each lost user Zi , the loss power P corresponding to each of the loss users Li , the predetermined importance factor β corresponding to each user Li , fault initial time t 0 , fault clearing time t f , Fault duration T F =t f -t 0 Calculation processing is performed to obtain a second parameter value corresponding to the load transfer rate of the potential risk factor; the mathematical expression of the second parameter value corresponding to the load transfer rate can be expressed as the following formula (16):

[0119]

[0120] Among them, S FZ is the second parameter value corresponding to the load transfer rate. Each of the potential risk factors includes energy loss rate, user-hour household loss rate and load transfer rate.

[0121] Step S207: performing calculation processing based on each of the second parameter values ​​to obtain an expected value of risk consequence;

[0122] In the specific implementation process of this step, it is determined whether each of the lines has a power transfer situation based on the preset network architecture of the target power distribution system; when the target line has a power transfer situation, the energy loss rate, the user-hour household loss rate, the load transfer rate, the energy loss weight, the user-hour household loss weight and the load transfer weight are calculated and processed to obtain the risk consequence expected value S corresponding to the target line. W1 ; When the target line has a power transfer situation, the mathematical expression of the expected value of the risk consequence can be expressed as follows:

[0123] S W1 =ω 7 S EL +ω 8 S NL +ω 9 S Fz (17)

[0124] Among them, ω 7 ,ω 8 ,ω 9 , are respectively the energy loss weight, user-hour household loss weight and load transfer weight determined by the objective weighting method of the coefficient of variation. When the target line does not have a power transfer situation, the energy loss rate, the user-hour household loss rate, the energy loss weight and the user-hour household loss weight are calculated and processed to obtain the expected value of the risk consequence S corresponding to the target line. W2 When the target line does not have a power supply transfer situation, the calculation formula of the expected value of the risk consequence is as shown in the following formula (18):

[0125] S W2 =ω 7 S EL +ω 8 S NL (18)

[0126] Step S208: performing calculations based on a preset network architecture and using a preset fault probability model to obtain a fault probability value corresponding to each of the lines;

[0127] In the specific implementation of this step, the mathematical expression of the preset fault probability model can be expressed as follows:

[0128]

[0129] Among them, P 1i is the failure rate per unit length of the ith overhead line, L i is the length of the ith overhead line, P 1j is the failure rate per unit length of the jth overhead line, L jis the length of the jth overhead line, P F is the failure probability value of the failure event.

[0130] Step S209: Calculate and process based on the failure probability value of each line, the expected value of the risk consequence, the number of transfer paths after each line fails, and the preset level factor corresponding to each line to obtain the grid structure risk parameter value of the target distribution system;

[0131] In the specific implementation process of this step, based on the fault probability value P corresponding to the same line F The expected value of the risk consequence is calculated and processed to obtain the first risk value corresponding to the same line; the calculation of the first risk value can be expressed as the following formula (20):

[0132] R Wi =P F S W (20)

[0133] Among them, S W is the expected value of risk consequence, S W The value is S W1 or S W2 Based on the first risk value and the preset level factor corresponding to each of the lines, a calculation process is performed to obtain an initial grid structure risk parameter value of the target distribution system; the calculation formula of the initial grid structure risk parameter value can be expressed as the following formula (21):

[0134]

[0135] Among them, R W is the risk value of the urban medium voltage distribution network considering potential factors, N L is the total number of lines in the distribution network system, β iis the preset grade factor of the i-th branch. The number of the transfer power supply paths corresponding to each of the lines is judged to obtain a judgment result; when the judgment result is that the number of the transfer power supply paths of each of the lines is equal to zero, the initial grid structure risk parameter value is determined as the grid structure risk parameter value of the target distribution system; when the judgment result is that the number of the transfer power supply paths of more than one line is greater than zero, the transfer power supply paths corresponding to each of the lines are screened to obtain each target transfer power supply path corresponding to each of the lines; specifically, when the transfer power supply paths on any line exceed the predetermined number, the transfer power supply paths need to be screened to obtain transfer power supply paths less than or equal to the predetermined number, for example: when line A has five transfer power supply paths and the predetermined number is 3, the risk value of line A switching to each transfer power supply path is calculated to obtain each risk value index; the predetermined number of transfer power supply paths with the highest numerical ranking in each risk value index are determined as each target transfer power supply path; the two transfer power supply paths ranked at the bottom are filtered out. The risk value of each target transfer path is calculated and processed to obtain each second risk value; based on each second risk value, the number of transfer paths corresponding to each line, the total number of predetermined lines of the target distribution system, and each line, the grid structure risk parameter value of the target distribution system is obtained. The mathematical expression of the grid structure risk parameter value of the target distribution system can be expressed as the following formula (22):

[0136]

[0137] Among them, N L is the total number of lines in the system; K i is the number of transfer paths corresponding to the fault of the i-th line, K is the number of all transfer paths in the distribution network; R Wm (j) is the risk value of the jth transfer path corresponding to the failure of the ith line, and m represents the line variable.

[0138] Step S210: Calculate and process based on the real-time operation risk parameter value and the grid structure risk parameter value to obtain a target risk value of the target power distribution system.

[0139] In the specific implementation process of this step, based on the real-time operation risk parameter value and the grid structure risk parameter value, the objective value assignment method of the coefficient of variation is used to calculate and process, and the operation risk weight value coefficient γ corresponding to the operation risk parameter value is obtained. 1 and the grid structure risk weight coefficient γ corresponding to the grid structure risk parameter value 2 ; Based on the real-time operation risk parameter value, the grid structure risk parameter value, the operation risk weight coefficient and the grid structure risk weight coefficient, the target risk value R of the target distribution system is obtained by calculation and processing.S The calculation formula of the target risk value of the target power distribution system can be expressed as follows:

[0140] R S =γ 1 R G +γ 2 R Y (twenty three).

[0141] In order to solve the problem that the traditional method using offline assessment methods cannot accurately quantify system risks, this application uses real-time operating factors to evaluate the operating risks of urban medium-voltage distribution networks from an online perspective. A risk indicator structure based on real-time factors is constructed from real-time operating factors such as the highest load rate of equipment, the maximum deviation rate of bus voltage, the proportion of overloaded equipment, the proportion of over-limit bus, and the proportion of power outages for important users, and a real-time quantitative value of operating risk is obtained. Traditional risk assessment methods ignore the connection relationship between network feeders. This application evaluates the grid structure risk of urban medium-voltage distribution networks based on potential factors. From the potential risk factor indicators of energy loss rate, user-hour loss rate, and load transfer rate, a risk indicator structure based on potential factors is constructed to obtain a quantitative value of potential grid risk. The target risk value of the entire system obtained by calculating and processing the real-time quantitative value of operating risk, the real-time operating risk parameter value, and the quantitative value of potential grid risk, the grid structure risk parameter value, is more accurate.

[0142] In order to explain this application clearly, the following is explained in conjunction with specific examples:

[0143] In order to verify the effectiveness of the risk assessment method for distribution system lines, a case analysis was conducted by taking a medium-voltage distribution network in a certain area as an example. Two planning schemes in the area were selected to quantify the risks and divide the risk levels, so as to determine the optimal scheme.

[0144] 1. Risk assessment of a certain city medium voltage distribution network planning scheme 1: Figure 3 The figure shows the electrical connection diagram of planning scheme 1; in the figure, L1 and L2 are the outgoing lines of the two main transformers in the airport substation respectively; L6 and L7 are the outgoing lines of the two main transformers in the airport A substation respectively; L3 and L4 are the two outgoing lines of a main transformer in the airport B substation, and L5 is the outgoing line of another main transformer.

[0145] Taking Scheme 1 as an example for detailed explanation, the values ​​of each indicator are obtained based on the risk indicator calculation model that considers real-time factors and potential factors. The coefficient of variation method is used to determine the weights of the lower-level elements of each level of indicators. Since both first-level indicators play an important role, their weights are set to 0.5 each. The overall system risk of Scheme 1 is shown in Table 1.

[0146] Risk Indicators Real-time operational risk Potential grid risks Overall system risk Risk Quantification Value 0.354 2.590e-6 0.177

[0147] Table 1

[0148] The above calculation of the potential grid risk quantification value is based on formula (21), which does not take into account the specific number of transfer paths when an accident occurs. Therefore, the grid structure risk quantification value is obtained by comprehensively considering the specific number of transfer paths of a specific line. Table 2 shows the grid accident risk value of the 7 outgoing lines in planning scheme 1.

[0149]

[0150] Table 2

[0151] By analyzing the results in Table 2, although there are two transfer paths after the outgoing line L6 fails: connecting L1 through K1 and connecting L4 through K3, the risk of this outgoing line is still high. There are two main reasons:

[0152] First, the maximum load of the line is 6217.2kW, which increases the possibility of overload. Once the line fails, it will cause system energy loss and increase the number of user hours.

[0153] Second, since the outgoing line is relatively long, the probability of failure caused by its fault increases, which also leads to high risk; even if there are two transfer paths, these two main reasons cannot be compensated, so the accident risk value of this outgoing line is relatively high. The main reason for the high risk of outgoing line L7 is similar to that of L6, and the opposite is true for outgoing line L1. Outgoing line L2 is a single radiation power supply. Although the probability of its failure is small, there is no transfer path. Once a failure occurs, the number of users will drop directly to 0, and the energy loss cannot be reduced by transfer, so its risk value is also high.

[0154] 2. Risk assessment of the planning scheme 2 for the medium-voltage distribution network in a certain city: The difference between the planning scheme 2 and the planning scheme 1 is that a new outgoing line L8 is added to the Airport A substation, and L8 is connected to L4 and L5 through a tie switch, and L2 and L3 are connected with the tie switch K8; the electrical wiring diagram of the planning scheme 2 is as follows: Figure 4 Based on the constructed urban distribution network risk quantification model based on real-time and potential factors, formula (13) and formula (17) can obtain the overall evaluation results of the system as shown in Table 3:

[0155] Risk Indicators Real-time operational risk Potential grid risks Overall system risk Risk Quantification Value 0.315 1.870e-6 0.157

[0156] Table 3

[0157] The risk assessment results show that both Scheme 1 and Scheme 2 are at a relatively low risk level. However, from the perspective of the constructed risk assessment index system, by comparing Table 3 and Table 1, it is found that the two primary indicators of real-time operation risk and potential grid risk in Scheme 2 are smaller than those in Scheme 1, which leads to a smaller overall system risk in Scheme 2. Therefore, Scheme 2 is better from the perspective of risk level.

[0158] Similarly, Scheme 1 shows the grid accident risk values ​​of the 8 outgoing lines in Planning Scheme 2 as shown in Table 4.

[0159]

[0160] Table 4

[0161] By comparing the calculation results in Table 4 and Table 2, it can be seen that the accident risk value of the transfer path of L6 connecting L1 through K1 is increased from 1.87×10 -4 Reduced to 1.71×10 -4 ; The accident risk value of the transfer path through K3 connecting L4 is 1.94×10 -4 Reduced to 1.74×10 -4 This is because the addition of L8 outgoing line greatly reduces the line load rate of L6, which causes the load loss after the fault to be reduced, reducing the risk of accidents. The risk of outgoing line L7 is also reduced to 1.66×10-4, and the reason is the same as L6. Outgoing line L2 is connected to L3 by means of contact switch K8, so that when a fault occurs, part of the load can be transferred through L3, reducing energy loss and user number loss, and the risk value is greatly reduced. L4 and L5 have an additional transfer path due to the addition of L8, thus reducing the risk level.

[0162] Another embodiment of the present application provides a distribution system line risk assessment device, such as Figure 5 As shown, including:

[0163] A determination module 1 is used to determine various real-time operating factors and various potential risk factors for evaluating the safety risk of the target power distribution system;

[0164] An operation risk assessment module 2 is used to perform an operation risk assessment on the target power distribution system based on the real-time operation data of the target power distribution system and each of the real-time operation factors to obtain a real-time operation risk parameter value of the target power distribution system;

[0165] A grid structure risk assessment module 3 is used to perform a grid structure risk assessment on the target power distribution system based on the preset network architecture of the target power distribution system and each of the potential risk factors to obtain a grid structure risk parameter value of the target power distribution system;

[0166] The calculation module 4 is used to perform calculation processing based on the real-time operation risk parameter value and the grid structure risk parameter value to obtain the target risk value of the target distribution system.

[0167] During the specific implementation process, the operation risk assessment module 2 is specifically used to: perform calculations based on the real-time operation data of the target power distribution system to obtain the first parameter value corresponding to each of the real-time operation factors; perform risk calculations based on each of the first parameter values ​​to obtain the first risk value corresponding to each of the real-time operation factors; perform calculations based on each of the first parameter values ​​using the objective assignment method of the coefficient of variation to obtain the first weight coefficient corresponding to each of the real-time operation factors; perform calculations based on each of the first risk values ​​and each of the first weight coefficients to obtain the real-time operation risk parameter value of the target power distribution system.

[0168] In the specific implementation process, the operation risk assessment module 2 is also used to: perform calculations based on the load power of each line of the target distribution system and the maximum load capacity corresponding to each line to obtain the load rate corresponding to each line; perform calculations based on the voltage value and rated voltage value corresponding to the same bus of the target distribution system to obtain the bus voltage deviation rate corresponding to the same bus; perform calculations based on the first quantity value of each line of the target distribution system being overloaded and the second quantity value of each line to obtain the proportion of overloaded equipment; perform calculations based on the third quantity value of the bus of the target distribution system being in an over-limit state and the third quantity value of the target distribution system being over-limited The fourth quantity value of the bus of the system is calculated and processed to obtain the proportion of over-limit busbars; the system load loss rate is calculated based on the number of system nodes of the target distribution system, the preset importance factor of each system node, the active power loss of each node and the initial active power corresponding to each system node; the fifth quantity value of the target importance users of the target distribution system and the sixth quantity value of the power-off users among the target importance users are calculated and processed to obtain the power outage proportion of important users; each of the real-time operating factors includes load factor, bus voltage deviation rate, overload equipment proportion, over-limit bus proportion, system load loss rate and power outage proportion of important users.

[0169] In the specific implementation process, the grid structure risk assessment module 3 is specifically used for: performing calculations based on the real-time fault data of the target distribution system to obtain a second parameter value corresponding to each of the potential risk factors; performing calculations based on each of the second parameter values ​​to obtain an expected value of risk consequences; performing calculations based on a preset network architecture using a preset fault probability model to obtain a fault probability value corresponding to each of the lines; performing calculations based on the fault probability value of each of the lines, the expected value of risk consequences, the number of transfer paths after a fault occurs on each of the lines, and the preset grade factors corresponding to each of the lines to obtain a grid structure risk parameter value of the target distribution system; wherein each of the potential risk factors includes energy loss rate, user-hour household loss rate, and load transfer rate.

[0170] In the specific implementation process, the grid structure risk assessment module 3 is also used for: performing calculation processing based on the failure probability value and the expected value of risk consequences corresponding to the same line to obtain the first risk value corresponding to the same line; performing calculation processing based on the first risk value and the preset level factor corresponding to each of the lines to obtain the initial grid structure risk parameter value of the target distribution system; judging the number of the power transfer paths corresponding to each of the lines to obtain a judgment result; when the judgment result is that the number of power transfer paths of each of the lines is equal to zero, determining the initial grid structure risk parameter value as the grid structure risk parameter value of the target distribution system; when the judgment result is that the number of power transfer paths of more than one line is greater than zero, screening the power transfer paths corresponding to each of the lines to obtain each target power transfer path corresponding to each of the lines; calculating and processing the risk value of each target power transfer path to obtain each second risk value; based on each of the second risk values, the number of power transfer paths corresponding to each line, the predetermined total number of lines of the target distribution system, and each line, performing calculation processing respectively, to obtain the grid structure risk parameter value of the target distribution system.

[0171] During the specific implementation process, the calculation module 4 is specifically used to: perform calculation processing based on the real-time operation risk parameter value and the grid structure risk parameter value using the objective assignment method of the coefficient of variation to obtain the operation risk weight value coefficient corresponding to the operation risk parameter value and the grid structure risk weight coefficient corresponding to the grid structure risk parameter value; perform calculation processing based on the real-time operation risk parameter value, the grid structure risk parameter value, the operation risk weight value coefficient and the grid structure risk weight coefficient to obtain the target risk value of the target distribution system.

[0172] In order to solve the problem that the traditional method using offline assessment methods cannot accurately quantify system risks, this application uses real-time operating factors to evaluate the operating risks of urban medium-voltage distribution networks from an online perspective. A risk indicator structure based on real-time factors is constructed from real-time operating factors such as the highest load rate of equipment, the maximum deviation rate of bus voltage, the proportion of overloaded equipment, the proportion of over-limit bus, and the proportion of power outages for important users, and a real-time quantitative value of operating risk is obtained. Traditional risk assessment methods ignore the connection relationship between network feeders. This application evaluates the grid structure risk of urban medium-voltage distribution networks based on potential factors. From the potential risk factor indicators of energy loss rate, user-hour loss rate, and load transfer rate, a risk indicator structure based on potential factors is constructed to obtain a quantitative value of potential grid risk. The target risk value of the entire system obtained by calculating and processing the real-time quantitative value of operating risk, the real-time operating risk parameter value, and the quantitative value of potential grid risk, the grid structure risk parameter value, is more accurate.

[0173] Another embodiment of the present application provides a storage medium, wherein the storage medium stores a computer program, and when the computer program is executed by a processor, the following method steps are implemented:

[0174] Step 1: Determine various real-time operating factors and potential risk factors for assessing the safety risk of the target distribution system;

[0175] Step 2: Based on the real-time operation data of the target power distribution system and each of the real-time operation factors, an operation risk assessment is performed on the target power distribution system to obtain a real-time operation risk parameter value of the target power distribution system;

[0176] Step 3: Based on the preset network architecture of the target power distribution system and each of the potential risk factors, a grid structure risk assessment is performed on the target power distribution system to obtain a grid structure risk parameter value of the target power distribution system;

[0177] Step 4: Calculate and process based on the real-time operation risk parameter value and the grid structure risk parameter value to obtain a target risk value of the target power distribution system.

[0178] Those of ordinary skill in the art can understand that all or part of the processes in the above-mentioned embodiment methods can be completed by instructing the relevant hardware through a computer program, and the computer program can be stored in a non-volatile computer-readable storage medium. When the computer program is executed, it can include the processes of the embodiments of the above-mentioned methods. Among them, any reference to memory, storage, database or other media used in the embodiments provided in this application may include non-volatile and / or volatile memory. Non-volatile memory may include read-only memory (ROM), programmable ROM (PROM), electrically programmable ROM (EPROM), electrically erasable programmable ROM (EEPROM) or flash memory. Volatile memory may include random access memory (RAM) or external cache memory. By way of illustration and not limitation, RAM is available in many forms, such as static RAM (SRAM), dynamic RAM (DRAM), synchronous DRAM (SDRAM), double data rate SDRAM (DDRSDRAM), enhanced SDRAM (ESDRAM), synchronous link (Synchlink) DRAM (SLDRAM), memory bus (Rambus) direct RAM (RDRAM), direct memory bus dynamic RAM (DRDRAM), and memory bus dynamic RAM (RDRAM), etc.

[0179] Those skilled in the art can clearly understand that for the convenience and simplicity of description, only the division of the above-mentioned functional units and modules is used as an example. In actual applications, the above-mentioned functions can be distributed and completed by different functional units and modules as needed, that is, the internal structure of the device can be divided into different functional units or modules to complete all or part of the functions described above.

[0180] The specific implementation process of the above method steps can refer to the embodiments of any of the above-mentioned distribution system line risk assessment methods, and this embodiment will not be repeated here.

[0181] In order to solve the problem that the traditional method using offline assessment methods cannot accurately quantify system risks, this application uses real-time operating factors to evaluate the operating risks of urban medium-voltage distribution networks from an online perspective. A risk indicator structure based on real-time factors is constructed from real-time operating factors such as the highest load rate of equipment, the maximum deviation rate of bus voltage, the proportion of overloaded equipment, the proportion of over-limit bus, and the proportion of power outages for important users, and a real-time quantitative value of operating risk is obtained. Traditional risk assessment methods ignore the connection relationship between network feeders. This application evaluates the grid structure risk of urban medium-voltage distribution networks based on potential factors. From the potential risk factor indicators of energy loss rate, user-hour loss rate, and load transfer rate, a risk indicator structure based on potential factors is constructed to obtain a quantitative value of potential grid risk. The target risk value of the entire system obtained by calculating and processing the real-time quantitative value of operating risk, the real-time operating risk parameter value, and the quantitative value of potential grid risk, the grid structure risk parameter value, is more accurate.

[0182] Another embodiment of the present application provides an electronic device, which may be a server, and the electronic device includes a processor, a memory, a network interface, and a database connected via a system bus. The processor of the electronic device is used to provide computing and control capabilities. The memory of the electronic device includes a non-volatile and / or volatile storage medium and an internal memory. The non-volatile storage medium stores an operating system, a computer program, and a database. The internal memory provides an environment for the operation of the operating system and the computer program in the non-volatile storage medium. The network interface of the electronic device is used to communicate with an external client via a network connection. When the electronic device program is executed by the processor, it implements the functions or steps of a service-side method for risk assessment of power distribution system lines.

[0183] In one embodiment, an electronic device is provided, which may be a client. The electronic device includes a processor, a memory, a network interface, a display screen, and an input device connected via a system bus. The processor of the electronic device is used to provide computing and control capabilities. The memory of the electronic device includes a non-volatile storage medium and an internal memory. The non-volatile storage medium stores an operating system and a computer program. The internal memory provides an environment for the operation of the operating system and the computer program in the non-volatile storage medium. The network interface of the electronic device is used to communicate with an external server via a network connection. When the electronic device program is executed by the processor, the functions or steps on the client side of a distribution system line risk assessment method are implemented.

[0184] Another embodiment of the present application provides an electronic device, comprising at least a memory and a processor, wherein the memory stores a computer program, and the processor implements the following method steps when executing the computer program in the memory:

[0185] Step 1: Determine various real-time operating factors and potential risk factors for assessing the safety risk of the target distribution system;

[0186] Step 2: Based on the real-time operation data of the target power distribution system and each of the real-time operation factors, an operation risk assessment is performed on the target power distribution system to obtain a real-time operation risk parameter value of the target power distribution system;

[0187] Step 3: Based on the preset network architecture of the target power distribution system and each of the potential risk factors, a grid structure risk assessment is performed on the target power distribution system to obtain a grid structure risk parameter value of the target power distribution system;

[0188] Step 4: Calculate and process based on the real-time operation risk parameter value and the grid structure risk parameter value to obtain a target risk value of the target power distribution system.

[0189] The specific implementation process of the above method steps can refer to the embodiments of any of the above-mentioned distribution system line risk assessment methods, and this embodiment will not be repeated here.

[0190] In order to solve the problem that the traditional method using offline assessment methods cannot accurately quantify system risks, this application uses real-time operating factors to evaluate the operating risks of urban medium-voltage distribution networks from an online perspective. A risk indicator structure based on real-time factors is constructed from real-time operating factors such as the highest load rate of equipment, the maximum deviation rate of bus voltage, the proportion of overloaded equipment, the proportion of over-limit bus, and the proportion of power outages for important users, and a real-time quantitative value of operating risk is obtained. Traditional risk assessment methods ignore the connection relationship between network feeders. This application evaluates the grid structure risk of urban medium-voltage distribution networks based on potential factors. From the potential risk factor indicators of energy loss rate, user-hour loss rate, and load transfer rate, a risk indicator structure based on potential factors is constructed to obtain a quantitative value of potential grid risk. The target risk value of the entire system obtained by calculating and processing the real-time quantitative value of operating risk, the real-time operating risk parameter value, and the quantitative value of potential grid risk, the grid structure risk parameter value, is more accurate.

[0191] The above embodiments are only exemplary embodiments of the present application and are not intended to limit the present application. The protection scope of the present application is defined by the claims. Those skilled in the art may make various modifications or equivalent substitutions to the present application within the essence and protection scope of the present application, and such modifications or equivalent substitutions shall also be deemed to fall within the protection scope of the present application.

Claims

1. A method for risk assessment of power distribution system lines, characterized in that: include: Determine the real-time operating factors and potential risk factors used to assess the safety risk of the target distribution system; Performing an operation risk assessment on the target power distribution system based on the real-time operation data of the target power distribution system and each of the real-time operation factors to obtain a real-time operation risk parameter value of the target power distribution system; Performing a grid structure risk assessment on the target power distribution system based on the preset network architecture of the target power distribution system and each of the potential risk factors to obtain a grid structure risk parameter value of the target power distribution system; Calculation and processing are performed based on the real-time operation risk parameter value and the grid structure risk parameter value to obtain a target risk value of the target power distribution system.

2. The method according to claim 1, wherein The performing of an operation risk assessment on the target power distribution system based on the real-time operation data of the target power distribution system and each of the real-time operation factors to obtain a real-time operation risk parameter value of the target power distribution system specifically includes: Performing calculations based on the real-time operating data of the target power distribution system to obtain first parameter values ​​corresponding to the real-time operating factors; Performing risk calculation based on each of the first parameter values ​​to obtain a first risk value corresponding to each of the real-time operating factors; Based on each of the first parameter values, a first weight coefficient corresponding to each of the real-time operation factors is obtained by performing calculation processing using an objective value assignment method for a coefficient of variation; Calculation is performed based on each of the first risk values ​​and each of the first weight coefficients to obtain a real-time operation risk parameter value of the target power distribution system.

3. The method according to claim 2, wherein The performing calculations based on the real-time operating data of the target power distribution system to obtain first parameter values ​​corresponding to the real-time operating factors specifically includes: Calculating and processing based on the load power of each line of the target power distribution system and the maximum load capacity corresponding to each line to obtain the load rate corresponding to each line; Calculating and processing based on the voltage value and rated voltage value corresponding to the same busbar of the target power distribution system to obtain a busbar voltage deviation rate corresponding to the same busbar; Calculating and processing based on a first quantity value of each of the lines of the target power distribution system being overloaded and a second quantity value of each of the lines to obtain a proportion of overloaded equipment; Calculating and processing based on a third quantity value of the busbars of the target power distribution system being in an out-of-limit state and a fourth quantity value of the busbars of the target power distribution system to obtain an out-of-limit busbar ratio; Calculating and processing based on the number of system nodes of the target power distribution system, the preset importance factor of each system node, the active power loss of each node, and the initial active power corresponding to each system node to obtain a system load loss rate; Calculating and processing based on a fifth number value of target importance users of the target power distribution system and a sixth number value of power-off users among the target importance users to obtain a power-off ratio of important users; The real-time operating factors include load rate, bus voltage deviation rate, overload equipment ratio, over-limit bus ratio, system load loss rate and important user power outage ratio.

4. The method according to claim 1, wherein The performing of a grid structure risk assessment on the target power distribution system based on the preset network architecture of the target power distribution system and each of the potential risk factors to obtain a grid structure risk parameter value of the target power distribution system specifically includes: Performing calculations based on the real-time fault data of the target power distribution system to obtain a second parameter value corresponding to each of the potential risk factors; Performing calculation based on each of the second parameter values ​​to obtain an expected value of risk consequences; Based on the preset network architecture, a preset fault probability model is used to perform calculation processing to obtain a fault probability value corresponding to each of the lines; Calculating and processing based on the failure probability value of each line, the expected value of the risk consequence, the number of transfer paths after each line fails, and the preset level factor corresponding to each line to obtain the grid structure risk parameter value of the target distribution system; Among them, the potential risk factors include energy loss rate, user-hour household loss rate and load transfer rate.

5. The method according to claim 4, wherein The performing calculation based on each second parameter value to obtain the expected value of risk consequences specifically includes: Determining whether each of the lines has a power transfer condition based on a preset network architecture of the target power distribution system; When the target line has a power supply transfer situation, a calculation is performed based on the energy loss rate, the user-hour household loss rate, the load transfer rate, the energy loss weight, the user-hour household loss weight, and the load transfer weight to obtain an expected value of the risk consequence corresponding to the target line; When there is no power transfer on the target line, calculation and processing are performed based on the energy loss rate, the user-hour household loss rate, the energy loss weight and the user-hour household loss weight to obtain the expected value of the risk consequence corresponding to the target line.

6. The method according to claim 4, wherein The calculation based on the failure probability value of each line, the expected value of the risk consequence, the number of transfer paths after each line fails, and the preset level factor corresponding to each line to obtain the grid structure risk parameter value of the target distribution system specifically includes: Calculating and processing based on the failure probability value and the expected value of risk consequences corresponding to the same line to obtain a first risk value corresponding to the same line; Performing calculation based on the first risk value and the preset level factor corresponding to each of the lines to obtain an initial grid structure risk parameter value of the target power distribution system; Determining the number of power transfer paths corresponding to each of the lines to obtain a determination result; When the judgment result is that the number of power transfer paths of each of the lines is equal to zero, determining the initial grid structure risk parameter value as the grid structure risk parameter value of the target power distribution system; When the judgment result shows that the number of the power transfer paths with more than one line is greater than zero, the power transfer paths corresponding to the lines are screened to obtain target power transfer paths corresponding to the lines; Calculating the risk value of each target transfer path to obtain each second risk value; Based on each of the second risk values, the number of power transfer paths corresponding to each line, the total number of predetermined lines of the target distribution system, and calculation processing corresponding to each line, the grid structure risk parameter value of the target distribution system is obtained.

7. The method according to claim 1, wherein The performing calculation based on the real-time operation risk parameter value and the grid structure risk parameter value to obtain the target risk value of the target power distribution system specifically includes: Based on the real-time operation risk parameter value and the grid structure risk parameter value, a calculation is performed using an objective value assignment method for a coefficient of variation to obtain an operation risk weight coefficient corresponding to the operation risk parameter value and a grid structure risk weight coefficient corresponding to the grid structure risk parameter value; Calculation is performed based on the real-time operation risk parameter value, the grid structure risk parameter value, the operation risk weight coefficient and the grid structure risk weight coefficient to obtain the target risk value of the target power distribution system.

8. A power distribution system line risk assessment device, characterized in that: include: A determination module, used to determine various real-time operating factors and various potential risk factors for evaluating the safety risk of the target power distribution system; An operation risk assessment module is used to perform an operation risk assessment on the target power distribution system based on the real-time operation data of the target power distribution system and each of the real-time operation factors to obtain a real-time operation risk parameter value of the target power distribution system; a grid structure risk assessment module, configured to perform a grid structure risk assessment on the target power distribution system based on a preset network architecture of the target power distribution system and each of the potential risk factors, and obtain a grid structure risk parameter value of the target power distribution system; A calculation module is used to perform calculations based on the real-time operation risk parameter value and the grid structure risk parameter value to obtain a target risk value of the target power distribution system.

9. A storage medium, characterized in that: The storage medium stores a computer program, and when the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps of the power distribution system line risk assessment method according to any one of claims 1 to 7 are implemented.

10. An electronic device, characterized in that: The system comprises at least a memory and a processor, wherein a computer program is stored in the memory, and when the processor executes the computer program in the memory, the steps of the power distribution system line risk assessment method according to any one of claims 1 to 7 are implemented.

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