WGT-based port hazardous chemical substance safety accident comprehensive prevention method

Abstract

The invention discloses a comprehensive port hazardous chemical substance safety accident prevention method based on WGT, and relates to the technical field of port safety, and the method comprises the steps: collecting risk influence factors of different types of hazardous chemical substance safety accidents of different ports; classifying the risk influence factors by adopting a WSR theory, and further screening and grading the risk factors by adopting a GRA method; calculating the probability of occurrence of risk influence factors of the different types of harbor hazardous chemical substance safety accidents, coupling the screened risk influence factors by adopting a TSS theory, and calculating the probability of occurrence of the risk influence factors of the different types of harbor hazardous chemical substance safety accidents in the three-dimensional risk scene; a risk influence factor index corresponding to the maximum probability value of each port coupling risk in different types of port dangerous chemical safety accidents is found out, a comprehensive prevention measure for avoiding and reducing the risk that the same type of accidents occur in the ports is made, and the same type of accidents are prevented from occurring again in other ports.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of port safety, and in particular to a comprehensive prevention method for safety accidents of hazardous chemicals in ports based on WGT. Background Art

[0002] With the continuous deepening of industrialization in my country, the hazardous chemicals logistics industry has a large demand, many types and high risks. Ports are key nodes connecting land transportation and water transportation. The volume of hazardous chemicals transiting at ports is large. In addition, there are many types of goods being loaded and unloaded at ports. Port hazardous chemicals pose great risks and are prone to safety accidents. Therefore, it is very necessary to conduct risk analysis on dangerous goods in ports to reduce the risks brought about and to effectively control them.

[0003] At present, the WSR-TSS theoretical model is often used for accident risk analysis: WSR is the abbreviation of the "Physical (Wuli)-Matter (Shili)-Human (Renli)" system methodology, which interprets the core of complex project management issues from three different levels: "Physical layer, Matter layer, and Human layer". Among them, Physics refers to the basic attributes of things that exist naturally and are not subject to human will; Matter is an effective way to deal with things formed by the attributes of things; Human refers to the relationship between people and the concepts and attitudes of people in dealing with things during the process of handling things. The scenario construction theory TSS (Theory of scenario structuring) hypothesizes possible risk scenarios and evaluates the risks in the changing process. The WSR-TSS theoretical model is currently widely used in the risk research of coal mine accidents and pipeline leakage accidents, but is less used in the risk research of port hazardous chemical safety accidents. This is mainly because port hazardous chemical safety accidents involve many factors at the Material layer and Human layer. The conventional WSR-TSS theoretical model needs to construct many risk scenarios, which is not conducive to subsequent risk assessment.

[0004] In addition, the current research only conducts risk analysis of hazardous chemical safety accidents for a single port, and does not conduct risk analysis and safety management for multiple ports across the country. There is a chance of studying safety accidents that occur in a single port, and the results obtained through risk analysis can only be used for the safety management of a single port, which has great limitations. It cannot analyze the causes of different types of accidents in different ports, nor can it find the commonalities of the same type of accidents in different ports. Therefore, it is impossible to formulate corresponding preventive measures and management specifications for different accidents to avoid the recurrence of the same type of accidents in other ports. In addition, due to the different types of ports, the probability of occurrence of a certain risk influencing factor of hazardous chemicals in ports is also different. However, when evaluating the risk of hazardous chemicals ports, the current technology believes that the probability of occurrence of hazardous chemical risk factors in different ports is the same, and does not classify the risk factors of hazardous chemicals in ports according to different port types. As a result, the probability of the simultaneous occurrence of various risks obtained by coupling the risk factors of hazardous chemicals in different types of ports using the TSS theory is inaccurate. Therefore, it is impossible to formulate comprehensive preventive measures that can effectively reduce the risk of different types of accidents for multiple ports across the country.

[0005] Based on this, the present invention aims to propose a comprehensive prevention method for safety accidents of hazardous chemicals in ports, so as to break the limitation that the existing technology can only propose safety management for a single port. Summary of the invention

[0006] In order to make up for the shortcomings of the existing technical problems, the purpose of the present invention is to provide a comprehensive prevention method for port hazardous chemicals safety accidents based on WGT. Based on the data of risk influencing factors of different types of hazardous chemicals safety accidents occurring in different ports across the country, a WGT (WSR-GRA-TSS) theoretical model is constructed, and the probability of risk influencing factors of different types of port hazardous chemicals safety accidents under three-dimensional risk scenarios is used to find the risk influencing factor index corresponding to the maximum probability of coupling risk of each port in different types of port hazardous chemicals safety accidents, and obtain the commonalities of the same type of accidents occurring in most ports; thereby, comprehensive preventive measures are formulated to avoid and reduce the risk of the same type of accidents occurring in ports, breaking the limitation that the existing technology can only propose safety management for a single port.

[0007] To achieve the above object, the present invention provides the following technical solutions:

[0008] The comprehensive prevention method for port hazardous chemicals safety accidents based on WGT includes the following steps:

[0009] (1) Collect data on hazardous chemical accidents at n ports across the country, analyze and summarize the risk factors affecting different types of hazardous chemical safety accidents in different ports;

[0010] (2) Based on the WSR method, the risk factor identification is carried out to identify and classify the risk influencing factors of n port hazardous chemicals safety accidents collected from the physical layer, the logical layer and the human layer, and then establish an accident risk identification framework;

[0011] (3) The GRA method is used to further screen the risk influencing factor indicators of different types of hazardous chemical safety accidents in different ports, retaining the more critical influencing factors; the key risk influencing factor indicators are classified to obtain the secondary risk influencing factor indicators of different types of hazardous chemical safety accidents in different ports;

[0012] (4) Calculate the probability of occurrence of secondary risk factors of different types of hazardous chemical safety accidents in different ports, use TSS theory to couple the secondary risk factors of different types of hazardous chemical safety accidents in different ports, and obtain the maximum value of the probability of coupled risk of different types of hazardous chemical safety accidents in different ports under the three-dimensional risk scenario;

[0013] (5) Based on the calculation of the maximum coupling risk probability of different types of hazardous chemical safety accidents occurring in different ports under the three-dimensional risk scenario, the risk influencing factor index of port hazardous chemical safety accidents corresponding to the maximum coupling risk probability of each port is found, the commonalities of the same type of hazardous chemical safety accidents occurring in ports are obtained, the causes of the same type of hazardous chemical safety accidents occurring in ports are analyzed, and comprehensive prevention measures are formulated for the same type of port hazardous chemical safety accidents to avoid the recurrence of the same type of accidents.

[0014] In the present invention, the types of hazardous chemical safety accidents include hazardous chemical explosion, hazardous chemical leakage and hazardous chemical spontaneous combustion.

[0015] In step (1) of the present invention, data on hazardous chemical accidents are collected from no less than 60 ports; the number of ports where the same type of hazardous chemical safety accidents occurred is no less than 6; and no less than 20 hazardous chemical risk factors that affect the occurrence of a certain type of accident in the port are collected.

[0016] In step (2) of the present invention, the risk factor identification based on the WSR method, the physical layer risk factors of port hazardous chemicals logistics include storage tank capacity and quantity, berth number, berth length, industrial emissions, hazardous goods throughput, port age, and population density;

[0017] Risk factors for port hazardous chemicals logistics at the management level include the degree of safety emphasis, operational standardization, safety assessment agencies, annual design approval capacity, complexity of hazardous chemicals process approval, and port investment;

[0018] The risk factors of hazardous chemicals logistics in ports at the human resources level include personnel training of hazardous chemicals enterprises, transportation authorities, production safety supervision departments, port administrative departments, enterprise personnel qualifications, environmental protection departments, and public security organs.

[0019] The present invention adopts Bayesian theory to calculate the probability of occurrence of secondary risk influencing factors of different types of hazardous chemicals safety accidents in different ports, adopts expert scoring method to determine prior probability and revised probability, and calculates posterior probability, i.e. final probability, based on Bayesian formula.

[0020] The probability of the coupled risk factors occurring under the three-dimensional risk scenario of the present invention is the probability of the coupled risks occurring simultaneously, so the probability of the coupled risk under the three-dimensional risk scenario is equal to the product of the probabilities of the coupled risks.

[0021] In step (5) of the present invention, in the process of formulating comprehensive preventive measures, due to the objective uncontrollability of physical layer factors, improvements are made through the logical layer and the human layer to reduce the probability of a certain type of accident risk occurring in the port.

[0022] Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following beneficial effects:

[0023] 1. The WGT-based comprehensive prevention method for port hazardous chemicals safety accidents proposed in the present invention can classify port hazardous chemicals risk factors according to different port types, and can accurately calculate the probability of risk factors occurring in different ports under three-dimensional risk scenarios for different types of hazardous chemicals safety accidents, obtain the maximum value of the probability of coupled risk for different types of hazardous chemicals safety accidents occurring in different ports under three-dimensional risk scenarios and the port hazardous chemicals safety accident risk influencing factor index corresponding to the maximum value, analyze the causes of different types of accidents occurring in different ports, and obtain the commonalities of the same type of accidents in different ports, so as to formulate comprehensive prevention measures for different accidents to avoid the recurrence of the same type of accidents in other ports across the country.

[0024] 2. The present invention adds the grey relational analysis GRA method to the WSR-TSS theoretical model for the identification of key factors, and further constructs the WGT (WSR-GRA-TSS) theoretical model. On the premise of identifying key factors, accurate risk scenarios are constructed to lay a foundation for subsequent reasonable risk assessment. Moreover, studying multiple port hazardous chemical safety accidents will involve more risk factors, and therefore, a good foundation has been established for the identification of key influencing factors of multiple port hazardous chemical safety accidents. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0025] Figure 1 The present invention is a flow chart of the method.

[0026] Figure 2 This is a flow chart of risk factor identification for hazardous chemicals ports according to the present invention.

[0027] Figure 3 The figure is a flow chart of risk factor identification for hazardous chemicals ports based on the GRA method of the present invention.

[0028] Figure 4 This is a schematic diagram of the three-dimensional risk coupling of hazardous chemicals ports in the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0029] The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be described clearly and completely below in conjunction with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, rather than all the embodiments.

[0030] Combination Figure 1-4 , a comprehensive prevention method for safety accidents of hazardous chemicals in ports based on WGT of the present invention is specifically described as follows:

[0031] 1. Collect different port risk influencing factors corresponding to different types of hazardous chemical safety accidents

[0032] The risk influencing factors of hazardous chemicals in ports are composed of a series of influential and related indicators around the risk of hazardous chemicals in ports. Nearly 60 ports with hazardous chemical safety accidents and a large number of references were collected. After analyzing and summarizing the six ports A, B, C, D, E, and F where hazardous chemical explosion accidents occurred, the risk influencing factors affecting the occurrence of hazardous chemical explosion accidents in ports were obtained, including "tank capacity and quantity", "number of berths", "berth length", "industrial emissions", "dangerous goods throughput", "port age", "population density", "safety emphasis", "operation standardization", "safety evaluation agency", "annual design passing capacity", "hazardous chemical process approval complexity", "port investment", "hazardous chemical enterprise personnel training", "transportation authority", "work safety supervision department", "port administrative department", "enterprise personnel qualifications", "environmental protection department", and "public security agency". 20 risk influencing factors are used to establish a foundation for the prevention of port hazardous chemical safety accidents based on the WGT risk assessment model.

[0033] 2. Use the WSR theory to classify the risk factors affecting different types of hazardous chemicals accidents in different ports. The WSR methodology is the abbreviation of the physical (Wuli)-rationality (Shili)-humanity (Renli) system methodology. This methodology analyzes the object system through three dimensions: physics, rationality, and humanity. "Physics" refers to the use of quantitative analysis and close logical reasoning, "rationality" refers to the reasonable arrangement of all personnel, equipment, and materials, and "humanity" refers to combining multidisciplinary knowledge such as psychology and behavior to analyze people's psychology and behavior, so as to further mobilize people's initiative and creativity to participate in social practice activities. Figure 2 As shown in the figure, based on the WSR method, the risk factor identification of 20 collected risk influencing factors of port hazardous chemical explosion accidents is identified and classified from the physical layer, the logical layer and the human layer, and divided into 7 physical layers, 6 logical layers and 7 human layers. Then, an accident risk identification framework is established to lay the foundation for subsequent risk assessment. In the port hazardous chemical logistics risk assessment model, the physical layer involves the status of the hazardous goods themselves, the port infrastructure and the hazardous goods logistics process. After analysis and summary, the "tank capacity and quantity (w 1 )”,"Number of berths(w 2 )”,"berth length (w 3 )”, “Industrial emissions (w 4 )”, “Dangerous goods throughput (w 5 )”, “Port age (w 6 )”,"Population density(w 7 )” is divided into the physical layer, and the risk factor set of port hazardous chemicals logistics in the physical layer is W = {w 1 , w 2 …, w i}(i=1,2…,m), where m=7 represents the number of physical risk factors. Principle refers to the principle of doing things, that is, the method of guiding human practical activities. The essence of evaluating the risk of port hazardous chemicals logistics is to analyze the hazardous chemicals logistics process and the arrangement of people, money and materials in the process. After analysis and summary, the "safety emphasis (s 1 )”, “Operational Standardization (s 2 )”, “Safety Assessment Agency (s 3 )”, “Annual design passing capacity (s 4 )”,"Complexity of hazardous chemicals process approval (s 5 )”, “Port investment(s) 6 )” is divided into the event layer, and the risk factor set of the port hazardous chemicals logistics in the event layer is S = {s 1 ,s 2 …,s i}(i=1,2…,n), where n=6, indicating the number of risk factors at the management level. Human management describes the relationship between people in the management object and process, and the concept and attitude of people in handling things. Through analysis and summary, “personnel training for hazardous chemicals enterprises (r 1 )”, “Transportation Administration Department (r 2 )”, “Safety Production Supervision Department (r 3 )”, “Port Administration Department (r 4 )”, “Enterprise personnel qualifications (r 5 )”, “Environmental Protection Department (r 6 )”, “Public Security Organs (r 7)” is divided into the human layer, and the risk factor set of the port hazardous chemicals logistics in the human layer is R = {r 1 , r 2 …, r i}(i=1,2…,j), where j=7, indicating the number of risk factors at the human resources level.

[0034] 3. Use the GRA method to further screen and grade risk factors

[0035] The GRA method is a method used to measure the degree of correlation between factors. Through certain data processing, the degree of correlation between each factor and the target value in the system is determined, thereby effectively distinguishing the main factors from the secondary factors. It is defined as: a parameter Y i is the target parameter, and its sequence value Y ij The reference sequence is composed of Y={Y ij}. Influencing parameter X i Values ​​X in the same sequence ij Compare the sequence, denoted as X = {X ij Grey correlation analysis can evaluate the correlation between different influencing factors at each level and the safety accidents of hazardous chemicals in ports by calculating the correlation degree.

[0036] Therefore, we refer to the GRA method theory, construct the correlation data series of risk factors and effect influencing factors of port hazardous chemicals, and propose the grey correlation analysis method based on risk factors and effect influencing factors of port hazardous chemicals:

[0037] 1) First, select the risk factor index of each layer as the comparison sequence X, as shown in formula (1).

[0038]

[0039] Among them, x ij Represents the jth value of the ith influencing factor, where i ranges from 1 to a and j ranges from 1 to b.

[0040] 2) Select the effect influence factor corresponding to each influencing factor as the reference sequence Y, as shown in formula (2).

[0041]

[0042] Among them, y ij Represents the value of the jth effect influence factor corresponding to the ith influencing factor.

[0043] 3) Standardize the data. Since the dimensions of the indicators in each layer are different and the values ​​vary greatly, they cannot be directly compared. Therefore, it is necessary to standardize x according to formulas (3) to (4). ij ,y ij After normalization, we get x'ij ,y' ij .

[0044]

[0045]

[0046] 4) Calculate x one by one ij ,y ij The absolute difference of ij , as shown in formula (5).

[0047] Δ ij =|x ij -y ij | (5)

[0048] According to equations (6) to (7), the maximum and minimum values ​​are taken out from the difference matrix respectively.

[0049] Δ max =maxΔ ij (6)

[0050] Δ min =minΔ ij (7)

[0051] 5) Calculation of correlation coefficient matrix. Through the difference matrix, the correlation coefficient l can be obtained by formula (8): ij Then the correlation coefficient matrix L is obtained by formula (9).

[0052]

[0053] Where ρ is the resolution coefficient, 0<ρ<1. If ρ is smaller, the correlation coefficient l ij The greater the difference between them, the stronger the ability to distinguish. Usually ρ is taken as 0.5.

[0054] 6) Calculate the correlation degree Q by formula (10) i .

[0055]

[0056] Q i is the change in the interval [0,1], Q i The closer it is to 1, the better the correlation; conversely, Q i The closer it is to 0, the worse the correlation. i The risk influencing factors of hazardous chemicals in ports can be divided into three levels. i If Q is greater than 0.7, the corresponding i-th influencing factor is an important factor. i If Q is between 0.5 and 0.7, the i-th influencing factor is a relatively important factor.i If it is less than 0.5, the i-th influencing factor is an unimportant factor.

[0057] Taking the average value of the human resources risk influencing factor index of ports A, B, C, D, E, F, and G where hazardous chemical explosion accidents occurred as an example, the key risk factor index of the human resources layer is calculated:

[0058] 1) Calculate the comparison sequence X of the risk factor indicators of the human resources layer according to formula (1).

[0059]

[0060] 2) Obtain the reference sequence Y according to formula (2).

[0061]

[0062] 3) Perform range normalization processing through equations (3) to (4), and then obtain the difference matrix through equation (5).

[0063]

[0064] 4) Then, through equations (6) to (9), we get the correlation coefficient matrix L.

[0065]

[0066] 5) Finally, according to formula (10), calculate the human layer r 1 、r 2 、r 3 、r 4 、r 5 、r 6 、r 7 With Q r1 =0.932, the correlation between E and Q r1 =0.932, Q r2 =0.901, Q r3 =0.892, Q r4 =0.852, Q r5 =0.474, Q r6 =0.457, Q r6 =0.336, the correlation ranking is: Q r1 >Q r2 >Q r3 >Q r4 >0.5>Q r5 >Q r6 >Q r7 Therefore, it is determined that the personnel training of hazardous chemicals enterprises (r 1 ), transportation authorities (r 2 ), Work Safety Supervision Department (r 3) and port administration (r 4 ) is the key influencing factor indicator of hazardous chemicals in ports at the human level.

[0067] According to the above steps, the GRA method is used to calculate the key influencing factors of hazardous chemicals in ports at the physical and logical levels. Finally, 5 physical-level influencing factors of hazardous chemicals in ports, 4 logical-level risk factors of hazardous chemicals logistics in ports, and 4 logical-level risk factors of hazardous chemicals logistics in ports are determined, such as Figure 3 As shown in Figure 2, the influencing factors of hazardous chemicals in ports at five physical layers include the capacity and quantity of storage tanks (w 1 )、Number of berths(w 2 ), dangerous goods throughput (w 3 ), port age (w 4 ) and population density (w 5 ) ; 4 risk factors of port hazardous chemicals logistics at the material level, including safety assessment agencies (s 1 ), annual design passing capacity (s 2 ), complexity of hazardous chemicals process approval (s 3 ) and port investment(s 4 ); 4 risk factors of port hazardous chemicals logistics at the management level, including personnel training of hazardous chemicals enterprises (r 1 ), transportation authorities (r 2 ), Work Safety Supervision Department (r 3 ) and port administration (r 4 ).

[0068] Since the index parameters of different types of ports are different, the 13 risk index factors are further classified, as shown in Table 1. 1 "For example, when the finished oil storage tank capacity is greater than 5 million cubic meters, it is set as "Capacity and quantity of large port storage tanks w 11 ", set the capacity of finished oil storage tanks less than or equal to 5 million cubic meters and greater than or equal to 1 million cubic meters as "Medium-sized port storage tank capacity and quantity w 12 ", set the capacity of finished oil storage tanks less than 1 million cubic meters to "capacity and quantity of small port storage tanks w 13 ". The 13 risk indicator factors are divided into three levels according to different port types, and finally 39 secondary risk indicators are obtained.

[0069] Table 1 Classification of risk assessment indicators for storage tank capacity and quantity

[0070]

[0071] 4. Calculate the probability of risk factors affecting different types of hazardous chemicals safety accidents in different ports, and couple the selected risk factors using TSS theory

[0072] Based on the Bayesian theory, the probability of risk factors of port hazardous chemicals logistics is calculated. In Bayesian theory, two methods, subjective method and objective method, can be used to determine the prior probability (P a ) and the modified probability (P b ), where the subjective method mainly relies on the knowledge and experience of experts, while the objective method is based on a large amount of statistical data. Considering that there are few historical statistical data on port hazardous chemicals logistics, the expert scoring method is used to determine the prior probability (P a ) and the modified probability (P b ), according to the Bayesian formula, a and P b Calculate the posterior probability (P t ), that is, the final probability. For example, taking the risk factor r of the human resources layer ij Taking the occurrence probability as an example, the posterior probability calculation formula is shown in formula (11).

[0073]

[0074] Finally, the probability of occurrence of risk factors affecting safety accidents of hazardous chemicals in ports is calculated according to the port type. The TSS theory is then used to couple the risk factors affecting safety accidents of hazardous chemicals in ports of different types. TSS theory is widely used in the field of risk assessment and decision-making. Based on this theory, the identified risk factors are divided into different risk scenarios. Combining previous studies and the characteristics of hazardous chemical terminals, it can be known that the risk factors that lead to accidents come from multiple aspects. Therefore, by constructing a three-dimensional risk scenario, that is, selecting one risk factor from the physical, logical and human levels, the risk factors of different dimensions are extracted to form a coupled risk. According to Figure 4 From the risk indicator system of hazardous chemicals ports, we can see that there are 80 three-dimensional risk scenarios. When constructing the risk scenario of hazardous chemicals port logistics, the three-dimensional risk scenario is named WΘSΘR. The probability of coupled risk factors under the three-dimensional risk scenario is the probability of the coupled risks occurring at the same time, so the probability of risk factors under the three-dimensional risk factor is equal to the product of the probabilities of coupled risks. The probability of risk factors occurring under the three-dimensional risk scenario for different types of hazardous chemicals safety accidents in different ports is calculated, and the maximum value of the probability of coupled risks under the three-dimensional risk scenario for different types of hazardous chemicals safety accidents in different ports is obtained.

[0075] Taking the risk influencing factors of human resources in the explosion accident of hazardous chemicals in port A as an example, the training of personnel in hazardous chemicals enterprises (r 11 ) as an example:

[0076] (1) Obtained from the scoring results of questionnaire experts, Pa (r 11 )=0.676,P b (r 11 )=0.543, then The calculated posterior probability is P t (r 11 )=0.713.

[0077] (2) The probability of occurrence of factors affecting the risk of hazardous chemicals safety accidents in ports is calculated based on the port type as shown in Table 2.

[0078] Table 2 Probability of risk factors for hazardous chemicals explosion accidents in a port

[0079]

[0080] (3) As shown in Table 3, the TSS theory is used to couple the risk factors of hazardous chemicals explosion accidents in Port A. The probability of the occurrence of risk factors in Port A under the three-dimensional risk scenario is obtained, and the index of risk factors of hazardous chemicals in Port A corresponding to the maximum probability is found. It can be seen from Table 3 that under the three-dimensional risk scenario, the risk values ​​are higher in w 33 Θs 43 Θr 11 , the risk value is 0.121, and the corresponding risk influencing factor index of dangerous goods in ports is the low-load dangerous goods throughput (w 33 ), low investment in ports(s 43 ) and hazardous chemicals enterprises have more personnel training (r 11 ).

[0081] Table 3 Probability of risk factors for hazardous chemicals explosion accidents in a port

[0082]

[0083] (4) According to the above steps, calculate the probability of occurrence of risk influencing factors in ports B, C, D, E, F, and G where hazardous chemical explosion accidents occur under the three-dimensional risk scenario, and find the port hazardous chemical risk influencing factor index corresponding to the maximum probability. As shown in Table 4, among the physical layer risk influencing factor indexes affecting ports A, B, C, D, E, F, and G, the port hazardous goods throughput accounts for the largest proportion, and the physical layer risk influencing factor indexes of 6 ports are all port hazardous goods throughput; among the risk influencing factor indexes affecting ports A, B, C, D, E, F, and G, the port investment accounts for the largest proportion, and the physical layer risk influencing factor indexes of 5 ports are all port investment; among the risk influencing factor indexes affecting ports A, B, C, D, E, F, and G, the number of training times for port hazardous chemical enterprise personnel accounts for the largest proportion, and the physical layer risk influencing factor indexes of 6 ports are all the number of training times for hazardous chemical enterprise personnel. Finally, it can be concluded that the physical layer risk influencing factor index affecting port hazardous chemical explosion accidents is the dangerous goods throughput (w 3 ), the risk influencing factor index of the material layer is port investment (s 4 ), the risk influencing factor indicator of the human resources layer is the number of training times for personnel in hazardous chemicals enterprises (r 1 ).

[0084] Table 4 Indicators of risk influencing factors of hazardous chemicals in ports corresponding to the maximum probability

[0085]

[0086] 5. Formulate comprehensive preventive measures to avoid and reduce the risk of different types of hazardous chemicals accidents in ports

[0087] Based on the calculation of the maximum coupling risk probability of different types of hazardous chemical safety accidents in different ports under three-dimensional risk scenarios, the index of risk influencing factors of port hazardous chemical safety accidents corresponding to the maximum probability of coupling risk of each port is found, the commonality of the same type of hazardous chemical safety accidents in ports is obtained, the causes of the same type of hazardous chemical safety accidents in ports are analyzed, and comprehensive preventive measures are formulated for the same type of port hazardous chemical safety accidents to avoid the recurrence of the same type of accidents. Since physical layer factors are objective and uncontrollable, they can be improved through the material and human layers, thereby reducing the probability of a certain type of accident risk in ports.

[0088] Taking the explosion of hazardous chemicals in ports A, B, C, D, E, F, and G as an example, comprehensive preventive measures are formulated to avoid and reduce the risk of explosion of hazardous chemicals in ports. Through the above analysis, it is concluded that the physical layer risk influencing factor index affecting the explosion of hazardous chemicals in ports is the dangerous goods throughput (w 3 ), the risk influencing factor index of the material layer is port investment (s 4), the risk influencing factor indicator of the human resources layer is the number of training times for personnel in hazardous chemicals enterprises (r 1 ). Then, comprehensive preventive measures for the risk of hazardous chemical explosion accidents in each port are formulated according to the port type. Taking Table 5 as an example, the comprehensive preventive measures for reducing the risk of hazardous chemical explosion accidents in ports from the management level are as follows: ① If the port investment is high (s 41 ),then the investment and financing model can be innovated to increase the port investment to 100 billion;②If the port investment is moderate (s 42 ), then the investment and financing model can be innovated to increase the port investment to 60 billion; ③ If the port investment is low (s 43 ), the investment and financing model can be innovated to increase the port investment to 30 billion. Taking Table 6 as an example, the comprehensive preventive measures to reduce the risk of hazardous chemical explosion accidents in ports from the human level are: ① If the number of training times for hazardous chemical enterprises is high (r 11 ) , online and offline teaching methods can be used to increase the number of training sessions for hazardous chemicals enterprise personnel to 20 times; ② If the number of training sessions for hazardous chemicals enterprise personnel is moderate (r 12 ), then online and offline teaching methods can be used to increase the number of training sessions for hazardous chemicals enterprise personnel to 15 times; ③ If the number of training sessions for hazardous chemicals enterprise personnel is small (r 13 ), online and offline teaching methods can be used to increase the number of training sessions for hazardous chemicals enterprise personnel to 10. Among them, the relevant data involved in Tables 5 and 6 are obtained by referring to relevant literature and materials, and can be adjusted according to actual conditions.

[0089] Table 5 Comprehensive preventive measures at the management level to reduce the risk of hazardous chemical explosion accidents in ports

[0090]

[0091] Table 6 Comprehensive preventive measures taken by management to reduce the risk of hazardous chemical explosion accidents in ports

[0092]

[0093] What is described above is only a preferred specific implementation manner of the present invention, but the protection scope of the present invention is not limited thereto. Any technician familiar with the technical field can make equivalent replacements or changes according to the technical scheme and inventive concept of the present invention within the technical scope disclosed by the present invention, which should be covered by the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A comprehensive prevention method for safety accidents of hazardous chemicals in ports based on WGT, characterized in that: The following steps are involved: (1) Collect data on hazardous chemical accidents at n ports across the country, analyze and summarize the risk factors affecting different types of hazardous chemical safety accidents in different ports; (2) Based on the WSR method, the risk factor identification is carried out to identify and classify the risk influencing factors of n port hazardous chemicals safety accidents collected from the physical layer, the logical layer and the human layer, and then establish an accident risk identification framework; (3) The GRA method is used to further screen the risk influencing factor indicators of different types of hazardous chemical safety accidents in different ports, retaining the more critical influencing factors; the key risk influencing factor indicators are classified to obtain the secondary risk influencing factor indicators of different types of hazardous chemical safety accidents in different ports; (4) Calculate the probability of occurrence of secondary risk factors of different types of hazardous chemical safety accidents in different ports, use TSS theory to couple the secondary risk factors of different types of hazardous chemical safety accidents in different ports, and obtain the maximum value of the probability of coupled risk of different types of hazardous chemical safety accidents in different ports under the three-dimensional risk scenario; (5) Based on the calculation of the maximum coupling risk probability of different types of hazardous chemical safety accidents occurring in different ports under the three-dimensional risk scenario, the risk influencing factor index of port hazardous chemical safety accidents corresponding to the maximum coupling risk probability of each port is found, the commonalities of the same type of hazardous chemical safety accidents occurring in ports are obtained, the causes of the same type of hazardous chemical safety accidents occurring in ports are analyzed, and comprehensive prevention measures are formulated for the same type of port hazardous chemical safety accidents to avoid the recurrence of the same type of accidents.

2. The WGT-based comprehensive prevention method for port hazardous chemicals safety accidents according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The types of hazardous chemical safety accidents include hazardous chemical explosions, hazardous chemical leaks and hazardous chemical spontaneous combustion.

3. The WGT-based comprehensive prevention method for port hazardous chemicals safety accidents according to claim 1 is characterized in that: In step (1), data on hazardous chemical accidents are collected from no less than 60 ports; the number of ports where the same type of hazardous chemical safety accidents occurred is no less than 6; and no less than 20 hazardous chemical risk factors that affect the occurrence of a certain type of accident in the port are collected.

4. The WGT-based comprehensive prevention method for port hazardous chemicals safety accidents according to claim 1 is characterized in that: In step (2), risk factor identification based on the WSR method, the physical layer risk factors of port hazardous chemicals logistics include tank capacity and quantity, berth number, berth length, industrial emissions, hazardous goods throughput, port age, and population density; Risk factors for port hazardous chemicals logistics at the management level include the degree of safety emphasis, operational standardization, safety assessment agencies, annual design approval capacity, complexity of hazardous chemicals process approval, and port investment; The risk factors of hazardous chemicals logistics in ports at the human resources level include personnel training of hazardous chemicals enterprises, transportation authorities, production safety supervision departments, port administrative departments, enterprise personnel qualifications, environmental protection departments, and public security organs.

5. The WGT-based comprehensive prevention method for port hazardous chemicals safety accidents according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The Bayesian theory is used to calculate the probability of occurrence of secondary risk factors for different types of hazardous chemicals safety accidents in different ports. The expert scoring method is used to determine the prior probability and revised probability. The Bayesian formula is used to calculate the posterior probability, that is, the final probability.

6. The WGT-based comprehensive prevention method for port hazardous chemicals safety accidents according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The probability of coupled risk factors occurring in a three-dimensional risk scenario is the probability of each coupled risk occurring at the same time. Therefore, the probability of coupled risk in a three-dimensional risk scenario is equal to the product of the probabilities of each coupled risk.

7. The WGT-based comprehensive prevention method for port hazardous chemicals safety accidents according to claim 1 is characterized in that: In step (5), in the process of formulating comprehensive preventive measures, due to the objective uncontrollability of physical factors, improvements are made through the logical and human levels to reduce the probability of a certain type of accident risk occurring in the port.

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