Safe operation assessment method for new energy power system

Abstract

The invention provides a safe operation assessment method for a new energy power system, and the method comprises the steps: constructing an SWOT matrix based on an SWOT analysis method, and determining the advantages, disadvantages, opportunities and threat factors of the new energy power system; based on a fuzzy AHP method, constructing a hierarchical structure model, obtaining expert judgment, establishing a fuzzy pairwise comparison matrix, and calculating a weight value of each SWOT factor; based on a fuzzy MARCOS method, determining an evaluation standard, obtaining fuzzy judgment of experts on the improved strategies, calculating a weighted fuzzy matrix, and sorting the improved strategies through a utility function; and comprehensively considering the utility value of each improvement strategy, and evaluating the safe operation of the new energy power system. By combining SWOT analysis, fuzzy AHP and fuzzy MARCOS methods, the new energy power system can be comprehensively evaluated from multiple dimensions, not only are internal and external factors of the system considered, but also advantages and disadvantages of different improvement strategies are compared, and comprehensiveness and objectivity of an evaluation result are ensured.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention belongs to the field of new energy, and in particular relates to a method for evaluating the safe operation of a new energy power system. Background Art

[0002] With the transformation of the global energy structure and the rapid development of new energy technologies, new energy power systems (such as wind power, solar energy, etc.) have become an important part of the power system. However, the grid connection of new energy power systems involves challenges in terms of grid security, stability, and sustainability. In particular, the intermittent and volatile characteristics of new energy power generation have brought huge risks to the safe operation of the power grid.

[0003] At present, the safe operation assessment of power systems mainly relies on traditional static and dynamic analysis methods, which usually only consider the safety assessment of the system in one aspect, and it is difficult to fully describe the safety of the system under multiple dimensions and multiple factors. This makes the safety assessment of new energy power systems lack a comprehensive, multi-level, and comprehensive assessment method, which cannot fully reflect the safety and operation risks of the system.

[0004] Therefore, it is of great significance to develop a new energy power system safe operation assessment method based on multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) method. Summary of the invention

[0005] The present invention provides a new energy power system safe operation assessment method based on SWOT analysis and fuzzy AHP-MARCOS comprehensive evaluation method. By combining SWOT analysis with the fuzzy AHP-MARCOS method, the internal and external factors of the new energy power system can be fully considered, thereby achieving a comprehensive assessment of the safety, stability and sustainability of the power system.

[0006] The technical solution of the present invention is as follows:

[0007] A method for evaluating safe operation of a new energy power system, the method comprising:

[0008] Based on the SWOT analysis method, a SWOT matrix is ​​constructed to determine the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of the new energy power system;

[0009] Based on the fuzzy AHP method, a hierarchical model was constructed to obtain expert judgment and establish a fuzzy pairwise comparison matrix to calculate the weight value of each SWOT factor;

[0010] Based on the fuzzy MARCOS method, the evaluation criteria are determined, the fuzzy judgment of the experts on the improvement strategies is obtained, the weighted fuzzy matrix is ​​calculated, and the improvement strategies are ranked by the utility function;

[0011] The utility value of each improvement strategy is comprehensively considered to evaluate the safe operation of the new energy power system.

[0012] Furthermore, the SWOT analysis method includes:

[0013] Construct a SWOT matrix to identify the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of the new energy power system;

[0014] Identify SWOT factors through opinion surveys of experts and decision makers and literature analysis;

[0015] Develop a SWOT strategy based on the SWOT matrix.

[0016] Furthermore, the factors of the SWOT analysis method are determined by combining expert questionnaires, interviews and historical data analysis.

[0017] Furthermore, the fuzzy AHP method specifically includes:

[0018] Construct goals and structural levels to organize the SWOT factors of the new energy power system in layers;

[0019] Obtain the decision makers' judgment on each level and determine the importance and priority of SWOT factors;

[0020] The weight values ​​were calculated using the fuzzy pairwise comparison matrix and the judgment consistency was checked;

[0021] Determine the global weighting of the SWOT factors.

[0022] Further, when the consistency ratio is less than or equal to 0.1, it is judged that the consistency passes.

[0023] Furthermore, the fuzzy pairwise comparison matrix in the fuzzy AHP method is constructed using triangular fuzzy numbers, wherein the values ​​of the fuzzy numbers are converted into fuzzy scale representations according to the linguistic judgment of the experts.

[0024] Furthermore, the fuzzy MARCOS method comprises:

[0025] Determine the evaluation criteria and formulate improvement strategies for the new energy power system based on SWOT factors;

[0026] Obtain the decision maker's judgment on the improvement strategy and establish a fuzzy decision matrix;

[0027] Determine fuzzy ideal solutions and fuzzy anti-ideal solutions;

[0028] Standardize the fuzzy decision matrix;

[0029] The weighted fuzzy matrix is ​​calculated and the alternative strategies are ranked by their utility values.

[0030] Furthermore, the weighted fuzzy matrix is ​​calculated by weighting the standardized fuzzy decision matrix in combination with the weight value in the fuzzy AHP method to obtain the comprehensive utility value of each improvement strategy.

[0031] Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following advantages:

[0032] By combining SWOT analysis, fuzzy AHP and fuzzy MARCOS methods, the present invention can comprehensively evaluate the new energy power system from multiple dimensions, which not only takes into account the internal and external factors of the system, but also includes the comparison of the advantages and disadvantages of different improvement strategies, ensuring the comprehensiveness and objectivity of the evaluation results. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0033] The accompanying drawings generally illustrate various embodiments by way of example and not limitation, and together with the description and claims, serve to illustrate the embodiments of the invention. Where appropriate, the same reference numerals are used throughout the drawings to refer to the same or similar parts. Such embodiments are illustrative and are not intended to be exhaustive or exclusive embodiments of the present apparatus or method.

[0034] Figure 1 A schematic diagram of the process of the present invention is shown;

[0035] Figure 2 A schematic diagram of the SWOT factors of the present invention is shown;

[0036] Figure 3 A schematic diagram of the SWOT model of the present invention is shown. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0037] It should be noted that, in the absence of conflict, the embodiments and features in the embodiments of the present application can be combined with each other. The present application will be described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and in combination with the embodiments.

[0038] The embodiment of the present invention provides a method for evaluating the safe operation of a new energy power system, and the specific steps are as follows:

[0039] Step 1: Construct a SWOT matrix, obtain SWOT factors, and identify experts and decision makers.

[0040] Step 2: Build a hierarchy of objectives and SWOT factors.

[0041] Step 3: Obtaining the decision maker’s judgment: The decision maker determines the priority of the criteria using the language terms in Table 1. In this step, the fuzzy comparison matrix is ​​constructed using TFN The details are as follows:

[0042]

[0043] in If \(i = j\), or if \(i\neq j\).

[0044] Table 1 TFN Fuzzy Scale

[0045]

[0046] Step 4: Obtain the fuzzy eigenvalues.

[0047]

[0048] Here, represents a non - zero \(n\times1\) fuzzy vector, including fuzzy numbers. Is equivalent to Equation (3), and fuzzy addition and multiplication operations are performed using interval arithmetic and \(\alpha\) - cuts.

[0049]

[0050] Where, and

[0051] For all \(i\), \(j\), \([i = 1,2,\cdots,n]\), \([j = 1,2,\cdots,n]\) and \(0\lt a\leq1\). The \(\alpha\) - cut is used to incorporate the decision - maker's or expert's confidence in their preferences. Regarding \(\alpha\), the lower and upper bounds of the fuzzy number are defined as follows

[0052]

[0053] The optimism index (\(\mu\)) is used to estimate the degree of satisfaction. If the value of \(\mu\) is larger, the degree of optimism is higher. The defined optimism index is a linear convex combination, as follows:

[0054]

[0055] To estimate the degree of optimism, when \(\alpha\) is fixed in the order, after setting the value of \(\mu\), the matrix shown in Equation (7) can be obtained By fixing the value of \(\mu\) and determining the maximum eigenvalue, the eigenvector can be calculated.

[0056]

[0057] Step 5: Check the consistency ratio (C.R.):

[0058]

[0059] Where

[0060]

[0061] When (CR≤0.1), the decision maker's evaluation and judgment are consistent, otherwise, the evaluation is inconsistent and must be corrected.

[0062] Table 2 Stochastic Index

[0063]

[0064] Step 6: Calculate the standard weight using the α-cut value given in formula (5).

[0065] Step 7: Use Table 3 to obtain the decision maker’s evaluation and judgment of the alternative options.

[0066] Table 3 Alternatives evaluation table

[0067]

[0068] Step 8: Use Table 4 to convert the language terms into TFN to obtain the grouping decision matrix.

[0069] Step 9: Create the extended initial fuzzy matrix

[0070]

[0071] in represents the worst alternative, In addition, B and C represent the benefit standard and cost standard respectively.

[0072] Step 10: Normalized, we get As shown below:

[0073]

[0074] in and represent elements.

[0075] Step 11: Get the weighted fuzzy matrix

[0076]

[0077] in and Indicates j th Fuzzy weights of criteria.

[0078] Step 12: Calculate the utility of the alternatives

[0079]

[0080]

[0081] in express The sum of each element is calculated as follows

[0082]

[0083] Step 13: Determine your ideal and anti-ideal The utility function of the solution is as follows:

[0084]

[0085] here, Should be blurred.

[0086] Step 14: Determine the utility function of the alternative: f(K i )

[0087]

[0088] Step 15: Sort the alternatives: The alternative with the highest utility function value is the most ideal alternative.

[0089] This paper uses SWOT analysis to study the internal strengths and weaknesses, external opportunities and threats of the prospects for safe operation of the power grid and determines the evaluation criteria to select the best strategy for effective implementation. The SWOT matrix is ​​based on literature survey as well as professional opinions of experts in the field. In addition to the SWOT analysis results, existing strengths are used to transform weaknesses into stronger directions. Strategies to evaluate opportunities are also part of the analysis. Subsequently, the weights of each factor are calculated using fuzzy AHP and fuzzy MARCOS methods to prioritize the various SWOT factors and determine the best strategy for the power grid.

[0090] The above description is only a preferred specific implementation manner of the present invention, but the protection scope of the present invention is not limited thereto. Any technician familiar with the technical field can make equivalent replacements or changes according to the technical scheme and inventive concept of the present invention within the technical scope disclosed by the present invention, which should be covered by the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for evaluating safe operation of a new energy power system, characterized in that: The method comprises: Based on the SWOT analysis method, a SWOT matrix is ​​constructed to determine the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of the new energy power system; Based on the fuzzy AHP method, a hierarchical model was constructed to obtain expert judgment and establish a fuzzy pairwise comparison matrix to calculate the weight value of each SWOT factor; Based on the fuzzy MARCOS method, the evaluation criteria are determined, the fuzzy judgment of the experts on the improvement strategies is obtained, the weighted fuzzy matrix is ​​calculated, and the improvement strategies are ranked by the utility function; The utility value of each improvement strategy is comprehensively considered to evaluate the safe operation of the new energy power system.

2. The safe operation assessment method of the new energy power system according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The SWOT analysis method includes: Construct a SWOT matrix to identify the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of the new energy power system; Identify SWOT factors through opinion surveys of experts and decision makers and literature analysis; Develop a SWOT strategy based on the SWOT matrix.

3. The safe operation assessment method of the new energy power system according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The factors of the SWOT analysis method are determined by combining expert questionnaires, interviews and historical data analysis.

4. The safe operation assessment method of the new energy power system according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The fuzzy AHP method specifically includes: Construct goals and structural levels to organize the SWOT factors of the new energy power system in layers; Obtain the decision makers' judgment on each level and determine the importance and priority of SWOT factors; The weight values ​​were calculated using the fuzzy pairwise comparison matrix and the judgment consistency was checked; Determine the global weighting of the SWOT factors.

5. The safe operation assessment method of the new energy power system according to claim 4 is characterized in that: When the consistency ratio is less than or equal to 0.1, the consistency is judged to be passed.

6. The safe operation assessment method of the new energy power system according to claim 4 is characterized in that: The fuzzy pairwise comparison matrix in the fuzzy AHP method is constructed using triangular fuzzy numbers, wherein the values ​​of the fuzzy numbers are converted into fuzzy scale representations according to the linguistic judgments of experts.

7. The safe operation assessment method of a new energy power system according to claim 1, characterized in that: The fuzzy MARCOS method includes: Determine the evaluation criteria and formulate improvement strategies for the new energy power system based on SWOT factors; Obtain the decision maker's judgment on the improvement strategy and establish a fuzzy decision matrix; Determine fuzzy ideal solutions and fuzzy anti-ideal solutions; Standardize the fuzzy decision matrix; The weighted fuzzy matrix is ​​calculated and the alternative strategies are ranked by their utility values.

8. The method for evaluating safe operation of a new energy power system according to claim 7, characterized in that: The weighted fuzzy matrix is ​​calculated by combining the weight values ​​in the fuzzy AHP method to weight the standardized fuzzy decision matrix to obtain the comprehensive utility value of each improvement strategy.

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