Public service facility planning method and system based on population prediction

Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of building digitization, in particular to a public service facility planning method and system based on population prediction. The planning method comprises the following steps: dividing residences in an object area into a plurality of residential areas, and predicting population scale data and population structure data of each residential area; determining the predicted number of people of each age group in each residential area within the preset age limit, and calculating the average value of the activity ability of each residential area in each year within the preset age limit; and determining the walking limit distance of the target group in each residential area in each year within a preset age limit according to the activity capability mean value, and taking the minimum value of the walking limit distance of each residential area within the preset age limit as a reference limit value. And determining the location of the public service facility in the object area, so that the distance value from each residential area in the object area to the location is smaller than or equal to the corresponding reference limit value. The method can improve the overall quality of urban planning, and has positive significance for saving social resources.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of building digitization, and in particular to a method and system for planning public service facilities based on population forecasting. Background Art

[0002] In the planning of urban public service facilities (abbreviated as: public service facilities), traditional planning methods easily lead to the problem of mismatch between public service facility plans and actual needs. Especially after the public service facilities have been built and put into use for a period of time, the problem of mismatch with actual needs will become more prominent, which greatly reduces the actual utility of the public service facilities that have been built. At the same time, there is also the problem of the need to build additional public service facilities, which has caused a significant increase in costs and brought about subsequent problems such as excessive land occupation and low utilization rate of various public service facilities, which directly affected the overall quality of urban planning and caused serious waste of social resources.

[0003] In view of this, this application is hereby filed. Summary of the invention

[0004] The first purpose of the present invention is to provide a public service facility planning method based on population forecasting, which can effectively reduce the probability of mismatch between public service facility plans and actual needs. On the basis of ensuring the effective coverage of public service facilities, it helps to reasonably control the number of public service facilities to be built, promote the improvement of the utilization rate and actual effectiveness of each public service facility, avoid the problems of incomplete coverage and excessive construction of public service facilities, improve the overall quality of urban planning, and have positive significance for saving social resources.

[0005] The second purpose of the present invention is to provide a public service facility planning system based on population forecasting, which can effectively reduce the probability of mismatch between public service facility plans and actual needs. On the basis of ensuring the effective coverage of public service facilities, it helps to reasonably control the number of public service facilities to be built, promote the improvement of the utilization rate and actual effectiveness of each public service facility, avoid the problems of incomplete coverage and excessive construction of public service facilities, improve the overall quality of urban planning, and have positive significance for saving social resources.

[0006] The embodiment of the present invention is achieved as follows: A method for planning public service facilities based on population forecasting comprises the following steps: S1. Divide the residences in the target area into several residential areas, and predict the population size and population structure data of each residential area within a preset period of time.

[0007] S2. Confirm the target group and divide the age range of the target group into several age groups so that the difference in activity ability between adjacent age groups is greater than or equal to the reference threshold.

[0008] S3. Confirm the predicted number of people of each age group in each residential area within the preset period based on the population size data and population structure data, and calculate the mean activity capacity of each residential area in each year within the preset period. Mean activity capacity = . Where i=1, 2, 3······n, x i is the activity capacity of the i-th age group in the corresponding residential area, p i is the proportion of the predicted number of people in the i-th age group in the corresponding residential area to the total number of the target group.

[0009] S4. Determine the maximum walking distance of the target group in each residential area in each year within a preset period of time based on the mean value of activity ability, and take the minimum value of the maximum walking distance of each residential area within the preset period of time as the reference limit value.

[0010] S5. Determine the location of public service facilities in the target area so that the distance values ​​from each residential area in the target area to the location are less than or equal to the corresponding reference limit value.

[0011] Furthermore, the preset service life matches the planned service life of the public service facilities.

[0012] Furthermore, in S5, when there is a block to be built between a residential area and the location, the current distance value from the residential area to the location is less than or equal to the current walking limit distance, and the current distance value from the residential area to the location is greater than the reference limit value, the verification process is executed.

[0013] The verification process includes: establishing a passage in the block to be built. If the distance value from the residential area to the location can be made less than or equal to the corresponding reference limit value, then it is determined that the distance value from the residential area to the location is less than or equal to the corresponding reference limit value, and a passage requirement mark is marked on the block to be built.

[0014] Furthermore, the verification process also includes: if the external management method of the project to be built in the block to be built is closed management, then it is determined that the distance value from the residential area to the location is greater than the corresponding reference limit value.

[0015] Furthermore, the verification process also includes: if the external management method of the project to be built in the block to be built is closed management, the construction of the project to be built is started after the number of years when the reference limit value of the residential area appears, and the walking limit distance of the residential area within the years after the start of the project to be built is greater than or equal to the distance value from the current residential area to the location, then it is determined that the distance value from the residential area to the location is less than or equal to the corresponding reference limit value, and a travel requirement mark is marked on the block to be built.

[0016] Furthermore, if the block to be built is constructed in batches, when a passage that can make the distance from the residential area to the location less than or equal to the corresponding reference limit value has been built in a certain batch, the passage requirement mark of the block to be built is removed.

[0017] Furthermore, the public service facility planning method based on population forecasting also includes a construction plan verification process. The construction plan verification process includes the following steps: D1. Determine the blocking objects that will block the passage according to the construction plan of the block to be built. For any two blocking objects, if there is a passable passage between them, they are regarded as different blocking objects; if there is no passable passage between them, they are regarded as the same blocking object.

[0018] D2. Determine the endpoints of both ends of the passage in the construction plan, and construct a straight line segment between the two endpoints of the passage as the reference line.

[0019] D3. If the baseline does not pass through any blocking object, the baseline is used as the reference path line.

[0020] D4. If the baseline passes through at least one blocking object, select one endpoint of the passage as the starting point and the other endpoint as the target point.

[0021] D5. Construct a ray with the starting point as the endpoint. The initial direction of the ray is the same as the direction of the reference line. Rotate the ray with the starting point as the reference so that in the emission direction of the ray, there is only one intersection between the ray and the blocking object closest to the starting point. The deflection angle of the ray relative to the reference line is used as the steering angle.

[0022] D6. Take the intersection point corresponding to the smallest steering angle as the middle point, and take the straight line segment between the starting point and the middle point as the reference path segment.

[0023] D7. Use the middle point as the new starting point to replace the original starting point, and construct a new baseline between the new starting point and the target point to replace the original baseline.

[0024] D8. Repeat D3 to D7 until the baseline does not pass through any blocking object.

[0025] D9. The length of the reference path segment and the length of the reference path line are used as the basis for calculating the length of the passage.

[0026] Furthermore, the reference path segments and reference path lines are used as a basis for establishing ground guidance marks for the passage.

[0027] A public service facility planning system based on population forecasting includes a memory and a processor.

[0028] The memory stores a computer program, which is configured to execute the above-mentioned public service facility planning method based on population prediction when running.

[0029] The processor is configured to execute the above-mentioned method for planning public service facilities based on population prediction through a computer program.

[0030] The beneficial effects of the technical solution of the embodiment of the present invention include: The public service facility planning method based on population forecasting provided in the embodiment of the present invention takes into account the changes in population size and population structure of each residential area in the future (i.e., a preset number of years) when determining the location of public service facilities, and takes into account the changes in people of all age groups in each residential area within the preset number of years. When the distance values ​​from each residential area in the target area to the location are less than or equal to the corresponding reference limit value, even if the target group of a certain residential area reaches the minimum level of activity in the future, the location of the public service facility is within the range that its activity can reach, thereby ensuring that the target group can continue to enjoy the services provided by the public service facilities normally over time, and avoiding the smooth performance of the service efficiency of the public service facilities due to the public service facilities being too far away due to the decline in activity.

[0031] In general, the public service facility planning method based on population forecasting provided by the embodiment of the present invention can effectively reduce the probability of mismatch between public service facility plans and actual needs. On the basis of ensuring the effective coverage of public service facilities, it helps to reasonably control the number of public service facilities to be built, promote the improvement of the utilization rate and actual effectiveness of each public service facility, avoid the problems of incomplete coverage and excessive construction of public service facilities, improve the overall quality of urban planning, and have positive significance for saving social resources.

[0032] The public service facility planning system based on population forecasting provided by the embodiment of the present invention can effectively reduce the probability of mismatch between public service facility plans and actual needs. On the basis of ensuring the effective coverage rate of public service facilities, it helps to reasonably control the number of public service facilities to be built, promote the improvement of the utilization rate and actual effectiveness of each public service facility, avoid the problems of incomplete coverage and excessive construction of public service facilities, improve the overall quality of urban planning, and have positive significance for saving social resources. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0033] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention, the drawings required for use in the embodiments are briefly introduced below. It should be understood that the following drawings only show certain embodiments of the present invention and therefore should not be regarded as limiting the scope. For ordinary technicians in this field, other related drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without creative work.

[0034] Figure 1 This is a schematic diagram of the impact of the block to be built; Figure 2 This is a schematic diagram when the baseline does not pass through any blocking object; Figure 3 This is a schematic diagram when the baseline passes through the blocking object; Figure 4 This is a schematic diagram for confirming the midpoint. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0035] In order to make the purpose, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention clearer, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Generally, the components of the embodiments of the present invention described and shown in the drawings here can be arranged and designed in various different configurations.

[0036] Therefore, the following detailed description of the embodiments of the present invention provided in the accompanying drawings is not intended to limit the scope of the invention claimed for protection, but merely represents selected embodiments of the present invention. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0037] It should be noted that similar reference numerals and letters denote similar items in the following drawings, and therefore, once an item is defined in one drawing, further definition and explanation thereof is not required in subsequent drawings.

[0038] As shown in this specification and claims, unless the context clearly provides an example, the words "a", "an", "the", etc. do not refer to the singular, but also include the plural. Generally speaking, the terms "include" and "comprise" only indicate the inclusion of the steps and elements that have been clearly identified, and these steps and elements do not constitute an exclusive list. The method or device may also include other steps or elements.

[0039] The flowcharts used in this specification are used to illustrate the operations performed by the system according to the embodiments of this specification. It is understood that the operations of each step are not necessarily performed precisely in order. On the contrary, the steps can be processed in reverse order or simultaneously. At the same time, other operations can also be added to these processes, or one or more operations can be removed from these processes.

[0040] The inventors of this application have found that traditional planning methods easily lead to the problem of mismatch between public service facility plans and actual needs. In particular, after the public service facilities have been built and put into use for a period of time, the problem of mismatch with actual needs will become more prominent. An important reason for this problem is that the impact of changes in population size and structure is ignored.

[0041] In order to overcome the deficiencies in the prior art, this embodiment provides a method for planning public service facilities based on population forecasting, the method comprising the following steps: S1. Divide the residences in the target area into several residential areas, and predict the population size data and population structure data of each residential area within a preset period. Residential areas can be flexibly divided according to actual needs. For example, they can be divided according to their location, and residences in the same community can be divided into the same residential area, or residences in the same community can be divided into the same residential area, or residences in the same area can be divided into the same residential area, and are not limited thereto. Population size data and population structure data can be obtained through a population prediction model, and this application does not make specific restrictions.

[0042] S2. Confirm the target group and divide the age range of the target group into several age groups so that the difference in activity ability between adjacent age groups is greater than or equal to the reference threshold. The target group can be a primary school student group or an elderly group, and is not limited to this. It can be flexibly selected according to actual conditions and needs. Taking the elderly group as an example, assuming that the age range of the elderly group is confirmed as a group of people over 60 years old, then, when the age range of the elderly group is divided into several age groups, it can be divided according to the degree of influence of age growth on the activity ability of the elderly. For example, it is believed that the activity ability of the elderly will decrease significantly every 5 years (that is, the degree of decrease reaches the reference threshold), then, the age range of the elderly group can be divided into 61~65, 66~70, 71~75, 76~80, etc. age groups, and so on. The reference threshold can be flexibly set according to actual needs, and this application does not make specific restrictions.

[0043] S3. According to the population size data and population structure data, the predicted number of people in each age group of the target group in each residential area within the preset period is confirmed, and the mean activity capacity of the target group in each residential area in each year within the preset period is calculated. The mean activity capacity = . Where i=1, 2, 3······n, x i is the activity capacity of the target group of age group i in the corresponding residential area, p i is the proportion of the predicted number of the i-th age group of the target group in the corresponding residential area to the total number of the target group.

[0044] S4. Determine the walking limit distance of the target group in each residential area within a preset period of time according to the average value of activity ability, and take the minimum value of the walking limit distance of each residential area within the preset period of time as the reference limit value. The walking limit distance refers to the appropriate distance for the target group to walk once, which is closely related to the specific age group. The corresponding relationship between activity ability and walking limit distance can be preset in advance according to actual conditions, for example, determined in combination with the average physical fitness and medical experience of the target group, and is not limited to this, and this application does not make specific restrictions.

[0045] S5. Determine the location of public service facilities in the target area so that the distance values ​​from each residential area in the target area to the location are less than or equal to the corresponding reference limit value.

[0046] Through the above design, when determining the location of public service facilities, the population size and population structure changes of each residential area in the future (i.e., the preset number of years) are taken into consideration, and the changes of people of all age groups in each residential area within the preset number of years are taken into account. When the distance values ​​from each residential area in the target area to the location are less than or equal to the corresponding reference limit value, even if the target group of a certain residential area reaches the lowest level of activity in the future, the location of the public service facilities is within the range that their activity can reach, thereby ensuring that the target group can continue to enjoy the services provided by the public service facilities normally over time, avoiding the smooth performance of the service efficiency of the public service facilities due to the public service facilities being too far away due to the decline in activity.

[0047] It should be noted that the target group can be flexibly adjusted according to actual needs. When the target group is primary school students, the public service facilities can be schools. When the target group is the elderly, the public service facilities can be elderly service centers. It is not limited to this.

[0048] In particular, the technical solution provided by this application is more suitable for public service facility planning when the target group is the elderly. In order to improve intuitiveness, the following text will be explained by taking the target group as the elderly as an example.

[0049] In general, the public service facility planning method based on population forecasting provided in this embodiment can effectively reduce the probability of mismatch between public service facility plans and actual needs. On the basis of ensuring the effective coverage of public service facilities, it helps to reasonably control the number of public service facilities to be built, promote the improvement of the utilization rate and actual effectiveness of each public service facility, avoid the problems of incomplete coverage and excessive construction of public service facilities, improve the overall quality of urban planning, and have positive significance for saving social resources.

[0050] Furthermore, in this embodiment, the preset service life can be matched with the planned service life of the public service facilities. In this way, reasonable planning can be carried out from the whole life cycle of the public service facilities, so as to give full play to the effectiveness of the public service facilities and reduce the cost of future supplementary investment.

[0051] Furthermore, in S5, when there is a block to be built between a residential area and the location, the target group of the residential area needs to bypass the block to be built when going to the location (i.e., to the public service facilities), which increases the distance. If the block to be built does not exist, or the target group of the residential area can pass through the block to be built, the distance to the location will be reduced. Figure 1 As shown, due to the existence of the block P to be built, when residential area Z goes to location X, it needs to take a detour along path S1, which increases the distance. At this time, if the current distance value from the residential area to the location is less than or equal to the current walking limit distance of the target group of the residential area, and the current distance value from the residential area to the location is greater than the reference limit value of the target group of the residential area, the verification process is executed.

[0052] The verification process includes: establishing a passage in the block to be built. If the distance value from the residential area to the location can be made less than or equal to the corresponding reference limit value, then it is determined that the distance value from the residential area to the location is less than or equal to the corresponding reference limit value, and a passage requirement mark is marked on the block to be built.

[0053] That is to say, suppose a passage is established in the plate to be built, such as Figure 1 As shown, for example, if a passage S2 is established, that is, the block to be built can be directly passed along the path S2, the distance from the target group of the residential area to the location is shortened, so that the distance value from the residential area to the location is less than or equal to the reference limit value corresponding to the target group of the residential area. In this case, even if the actual distance from the residential area to the location is greater than the reference limit value of the target group of the residential area, it is still determined that the distance value from the residential area to the location is less than or equal to the reference limit value corresponding to the target group of the residential area.

[0054] In other words, in this case, the location is still judged to be appropriate, but a traffic demand mark needs to be marked in the section to be built. The traffic demand mark means that a traffic passage for the target group of the residential area to pass through needs to be established in the section to be built, so that the target group of the residential area can use the public service facilities at the location normally.

[0055] In actual work, unbuilt blocks are common. Due to the detour problems caused by unbuilt blocks, the selection of the location of public service facilities is quite difficult. It is often the case that the original number of public service facilities cannot meet the usage needs of the target area and the number of additional public service facilities needs to be increased. This will lead to an increase in a series of costs such as land cost, construction cost, time cost, operation cost, maintenance cost, etc. Moreover, due to the temporary increase in the number of public service facilities, it may also interfere with the advancement of other urban planning projects.

[0056] Through the above design, the difficulty of selecting the location of public service facilities can be effectively reduced. On the basis of not directly overturning the existing public service facility construction plan, a solution of adding a pass-through demand mark for the block to be built is introduced. Decision makers can choose between adding the number of new public service facilities and adding a pass-through demand mark for the block to be built according to the actual situation, which improves the flexibility of decision-making. If the method of adding a pass-through demand mark for the block to be built is chosen, then when the block to be built is subsequently constructed, the pass-through demand mark can provide guidance for the specific construction plan of the block to be built, which provides effective supervision and prompts for subsequent urban planning and construction work, avoids the impact of subsequent urban planning and construction work on the public service facilities that were originally in normal use, achieves a high degree of unity in urban planning, and avoids confusion in urban planning management.

[0057] It should be noted that if there is no construction plan for the block to be built within the preset period, a passage will be directly opened in the block to be built for the target group of the corresponding residential area to pass through.

[0058] Specially, in this embodiment, the verification process also includes: if the external management method of the projects to be built in the to-be-built block is closed management, that is, the new projects to be built after the to-be-built block are not open to the outside world, and outsiders cannot enter and pass through at will, which means that no passage can be provided after the projects to be built are completed. In this case, it is determined that the distance value from the residential area to the location is greater than the reference limit value corresponding to the target group of the residential area.

[0059] Exceptionally, the verification process also includes: if the external management method of the project to be built in the block to be built is closed management, but the construction of the project to be built is started after the year when the reference limit value of the residential area appears, and the walking limit distance of the residential area within the year after the start of the project to be built is greater than or equal to the distance value from the current residential area to the location, then it is determined that the distance value from the residential area to the location is less than or equal to the corresponding reference limit value, and a travel requirement mark is marked on the block to be built.

[0060] In this case, the need to build a passageway in the block to be built only exists before the construction of the project to be built. In this case, a passageway can be built in the block to be built first to meet the needs of the target group of the residential area. When the construction of the project to be built starts, the passageway can be dismantled. Through this design, the utilization rate and rationality of the block to be built can be effectively improved, and the negative impact of idle blocks on public life can be reduced as much as possible. This is also more conducive to the management of the blocks to be built in the city and improves the management flexibility of the blocks to be built.

[0061] Furthermore, if the block to be built is constructed in batches, when a passage that can make the distance from the residential area to the location less than or equal to the corresponding reference limit value has been built in a certain batch of construction, the passage requirement mark of the block to be built will be removed. In other words, when the passage requirement mark still exists, it means that the corresponding block to be built needs to build a passage that meets the requirements, which can provide guidance for the subsequent construction plan on the block to be built. When the passage that meets the requirements has been built, the passage requirement mark is removed, and the construction work of the remaining area on the block to be built is no longer subject to relevant constraints, and the construction work can be carried out flexibly.

[0062] In this way, the flexibility and comprehensiveness of the management of the blocks to be built will be greatly improved, and guidance and reference can be directly provided for the management of the blocks to be built, reducing the blindness of the planning of the blocks to be built, and improving the coordination between the new projects and the original public service facilities in the blocks to be built. This effectively reduces the conflict points between urban planning, new urban construction projects and facilities, improves the coordination between different urban projects and facilities, and can help further improve the rationality of urban planning and urban management, so as to give full play to the city's effectiveness.

[0063] Furthermore, in order to facilitate verification of whether the passage meets the use requirements, the public service facility planning method based on population forecasting also includes a construction plan verification process. The construction plan verification process includes the following steps: D1. Determine the obstructing objects that will block traffic based on the construction plan of the block to be built. For any two obstructing objects, if there is a passable passage between them, they will be regarded as different obstructing objects. If there is no passable passage between them, they will be regarded as the same obstructing object. Obstructing objects include but are not limited to: houses, green belts, pools, etc. Anything that will affect normal traffic is regarded as an obstructing object.

[0064] D2. Determine the endpoints of the two ends of the passage in the construction plan. Since the passage has a certain width, the endpoints can be selected as the middle position of each end. Construct a straight line segment between the two endpoints of the passage as the reference line.

[0065] D3. If the baseline does not pass through any blocking object, the baseline is used as the reference path line. Figure 2 As shown in the figure (the solid lines in the figure represent the boundaries of the blocking objects), the baseline J1 does not pass through any blocking object, and the baseline J1 is used as the reference path line.

[0066] D4. If the baseline passes through at least one blocking object, select one endpoint of the passage as the starting point and the other endpoint as the target point. Figure 3 As shown (the solid lines in the figure represent the boundaries of the blocking object), the baseline J2 passes through the blocking object, then an endpoint of the passage is selected as the starting point Q, and the other endpoint is selected as the target point M.

[0067] D5. Construct a ray with the starting point as the endpoint. The initial direction of the ray is the same as the direction of the reference line, that is, the initial direction of the ray is also pointing to the target point. Rotate the ray with the starting point as the reference so that in the emission direction of the ray, there is only one intersection between the ray and the blocking object closest to the starting point. The deflection angle of the ray relative to the reference line in this state is used as the steering angle.

[0068] D6. Take the intersection point corresponding to the smallest steering angle as the middle point, and take the straight line segment between the starting point and the middle point as the reference path segment. Figure 4 As shown in the figure (the solid lines in the figure represent the boundaries of the blocking objects), the ray starts to deflect from the reference line J2. On both sides of the reference line J2, the intersection points corresponding to the smallest steering angles are c1 and c2 respectively. For the steering angles ∠c1QM and ∠c2QM, ∠c1QM<∠c2QM, and the middle point should be c1. At this time, the straight line segment Q-c1 between Q and c1 is used as the reference path segment.

[0069] D7. Use the middle point as the new starting point to replace the original starting point, and construct a new baseline between the new starting point and the target point to replace the original baseline. Figure 4 As shown (the solid lines in the figure represent the boundaries of the blocking objects), c1 is used to replace the original Q as the new starting point, and a new baseline J2-1 is constructed between the new starting point Q and the target point M to replace the original baseline.

[0070] D8. Repeat D3 to D7 until the baseline does not pass through any blocking object. Figure 4 For example, the next step is to bring the baseline J2-1 into D3 and re-execute D3 to D7. After D3 to D7 are repeated, if the baseline does not pass through any blocking object, it means that the target point M can be reached directly.

[0071] D9. The length of the reference path segment and the length of the reference path line are used as the basis for calculating the length of the passage.

[0072] The reference path segment and the reference path line together constitute a feasible path through the passage, which can be used as a basis for determining the length of the passage. In addition, since the reference path segment and the reference path line together constitute a feasible path through the passage, the reference path segment and the reference path line can be used as a reference to establish ground guidance signs of this feasible path on the ground to guide the target population to efficiently pass through the passage.

[0073] Through the above design, the feasible path composed of the reference path segment and the reference path line can be used to evaluate the actual distance through the passage, so as to evaluate whether the design of the passage can meet the corresponding requirements.

[0074] On the other hand, since passages are usually not set up separately, there are often many paths available for passing through and traveling in the construction plan. The blocking objects are deeply divided by the method of "for any two blocking objects, if there is a passable passage between them, the two are regarded as different blocking objects; if there is no passable passage between them, the two are regarded as the same blocking object". Combined with the selection method of "in the emission direction of the ray, there is only one intersection between the ray and the blocking object closest to the starting point", the problem of the selected path entering a dead end can be effectively avoided, thereby improving execution efficiency.

[0075] The above method can quickly identify a shorter path and minimize the turning amplitude during the travel process. This can effectively improve the travel efficiency when the target group is the elderly. At the same time, it can avoid the elderly from getting lost due to frequent turns accompanied by large turning amplitudes during the travel process, greatly reducing the risk of this special group of the elderly during the travel process.

[0076] Optionally, the starting point and the target point in D4 can be swapped, and then D3 to D8 can be re-executed, so that two feasible paths may be obtained. Through this operation, when there are indeed two feasible paths, for each feasible path, the angle value and the angle value of the steering angle at all the intermediate points are calculated, and the feasible path with the smaller angle value and the smaller angle value are used as the final selected path. In this way, the difference in confirming feasible paths from different ends can be effectively taken into account, and the overall turning amplitude of the elderly during the process of walking can be further reduced.

[0077] This embodiment also provides a public service facility planning system based on population forecasting, which includes: a memory and a processor.

[0078] The memory stores a computer program, which is configured to execute the above-mentioned public service facility planning method based on population prediction when running.

[0079] The processor is configured to execute the above-mentioned method for planning public service facilities based on population prediction through a computer program.

[0080] To sum up, the public service facility planning method based on population forecasting provided in the embodiment of the present invention can effectively reduce the probability of mismatch between public service facility plans and actual needs. On the basis of ensuring the effective coverage rate of public service facilities, it helps to reasonably control the number of public service facilities to be built, promote the improvement of the utilization rate and actual effectiveness of each public service facility, avoid the problems of incomplete coverage and excessive construction of public service facilities, improve the overall quality of urban planning, and have positive significance for saving social resources.

[0081] The public service facility planning system based on population forecasting provided by the embodiment of the present invention can effectively reduce the probability of mismatch between public service facility plans and actual needs. On the basis of ensuring the effective coverage rate of public service facilities, it helps to reasonably control the number of public service facilities to be built, promote the improvement of the utilization rate and actual effectiveness of each public service facility, avoid the problems of incomplete coverage and excessive construction of public service facilities, improve the overall quality of urban planning, and have positive significance for saving social resources.

[0082] The above description is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention and is not intended to limit the present invention. For those skilled in the art, the present invention may have various modifications and variations. Any modification, equivalent replacement, improvement, etc. made within the spirit and principle of the present invention shall be included in the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for planning public service facilities based on population forecasting, characterized in that: The steps include: S1. Divide the residences in the target area into several residential areas, and predict the population size data and population structure data of each residential area within a preset period of time; S2. confirming the target group, and dividing the age range of the target group into several age groups, so that the difference in activity ability between adjacent age groups is greater than or equal to a reference threshold; S3, confirming the predicted number of people in each age group in each residential area within the preset period according to the population size data and the population structure data, and calculating the mean activity capacity of each residential area in each year within the preset period, wherein the mean activity capacity = ; where i=1, 2, 3······n, x i is the activity ability of the i-th age group in the corresponding residential area, p i is the proportion of the predicted number of people in the i-th age group in the corresponding residential area to the total number of people in the target group; S4, determining the walking limit distance of the target group in each of the residential areas in each year within the preset period of time according to the activity average, and taking the minimum value of the walking limit distance of each of the residential areas within the preset period of time as a reference limit value; S5. Determine the location of the public service facilities in the object area so that the distance values ​​from each of the residential areas in the object area to the location are less than or equal to the corresponding reference limit value.

2. The method for planning public service facilities based on population forecasting according to claim 1, characterized in that: The preset service life matches the planned service life of the public service facilities.

3. The method for planning public service facilities based on population forecasting according to claim 1, characterized in that: In S5, when there is a block to be built between a certain residential area and the location, and the current distance value from the residential area to the location is less than or equal to the current walking limit distance, and the current distance value from the residential area to the location is greater than the reference limit value, the verification process is executed; The verification process includes: establishing a passage in the block to be built. If the distance value from the residential area to the location can be made less than or equal to the corresponding reference limit value, then it is determined that the distance value from the residential area to the location is less than or equal to the corresponding reference limit value, and a passage requirement mark is marked on the block to be built.

4. The method for planning public service facilities based on population forecasting according to claim 3, characterized in that: The verification process also includes: if the external management method of the to-be-built project of the to-be-built block is closed management, then determining that the distance value from the residential area to the location is greater than the corresponding reference limit value.

5. The method for planning public service facilities based on population forecasting according to claim 3, characterized in that: The verification process also includes: if the external management method of the project to be built in the block to be built is closed management, the construction start time of the project to be built is after the year when the reference limit value of the residential area appears, and the walking limit distance of the residential area within the year after the construction of the project to be built is greater than or equal to the current distance value from the residential area to the location, then it is determined that the distance value from the residential area to the location is less than or equal to the corresponding reference limit value, and the travel requirement mark is marked on the block to be built.

6. The method for planning public service facilities based on population forecasting according to claim 3, characterized in that: If the block to be built is constructed in batches, when a passage that can make the distance from the residential area to the location less than or equal to the corresponding reference limit value has been built in a certain batch, the passage requirement mark of the block to be built is removed.

7. The method for planning public service facilities based on population forecasting according to claim 3, characterized in that: The public service facility planning method based on population forecasting also includes a construction plan verification process; the construction plan verification process includes the following steps: D1. Determine the blocking objects that will block the passage according to the construction plan of the block to be built; for any two blocking objects, if there is a passable passage between the two, the two will be regarded as different blocking objects; if there is no passable passage between the two, the two will be regarded as the same blocking object; D2. Determine the endpoints at both ends of the passage in the plan view of the construction plan, and construct a straight line segment between the two endpoints of the passage as a reference line; D3. If the baseline does not pass through any of the blocking objects, the baseline is used as a reference path line; D4. If the baseline passes through at least one of the blocking objects, one endpoint of the passage is selected as the starting point and the other endpoint is selected as the target point; D5. construct a ray with the starting point as an endpoint, wherein the initial direction of the ray is the same as the direction of the reference line; rotate the ray with the starting point as a reference, so that in the emission direction of the ray, there is only one intersection between the ray and the blocking object closest to the starting point, and use the deflection angle of the ray relative to the reference line as the steering angle; D6. Taking the intersection point corresponding to the steering angle with the smallest angle as the middle point, and taking the straight line segment between the starting point and the middle point as the reference path segment; D7, using the middle point as a new starting point to replace the original starting point, and constructing a new baseline between the new starting point and the target point to replace the original baseline; D8, repeating D3 to D7 until the baseline does not pass through any of the blocking objects; D9. Using the length of the reference path segment and the length of the reference path line as a basis for calculating the length of the travel channel.

8. The method for planning public service facilities based on population forecasting according to claim 7, characterized in that: The reference path segment and the reference path line are used as a basis for establishing ground guidance marks for the passage.

9. A public service facility planning system based on population forecasting, characterized in that: include: Memory and processor; The memory stores a computer program, wherein the computer program stores the public service facility planning method based on population forecasting according to any one of claims 1 to 8; The processor is configured to execute the public service facility planning method based on population forecasting as described in any one of claims 1 to 8 through the computer program.

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