Flood forecasting and early warning system and method based on diversified analysis

Abstract

The present invention relates to the field of flood warning technology, and in particular to a flood forecasting and warning system and method based on diversified analysis, the system comprising a flood forecasting and warning center, a flood risk unit, a watershed analysis unit, a forecast division unit, a forecast tracing unit, and a warning execution unit; the present invention preliminarily analyzes from the three perspectives of meteorology, hydrology, and geology of the target watershed, so as to intuitively understand whether there is a flood risk in the target watershed, which helps the target watershed to make timely flood prevention emergency treatment, and conducts in-depth flood forecasting and warning effectiveness division analysis on the flood data of the target watershed through information feedback, so as to carry out reasonable forecast division management for the flood performance of the target watershed, and carry out reasonable flood prevention management according to different forecasting and warning operations, and at the same time judge whether the flood forecasting and warning effectiveness of the target watershed is qualified, so as to carry out effectiveness defect alarm and improvement management according to the information feedback.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the field of flood warning technology, and in particular to a flood forecasting and warning system and method based on diversified analysis. Background Art

[0002] Floods, due to their suddenness and destructiveness, have always been one of the major natural disasters threatening human life and property. Accurately predicting river basin floods is crucial for disaster prevention and mitigation. With the development of remote sensing and model simulation technologies, multi-source rainfall data, such as ground rainfall station network observations, radar remote sensing estimations, and numerical weather forecast model simulations, are seamlessly integrated through novel data fusion technologies. The fused high-precision rainfall field data is then input into distributed river basin hydrological models. Coupled with long-term and short-term rainfall forecasts, full-time flood process simulation and prediction can be achieved, effectively improving the accuracy of flood predictions.

[0003] However, in existing technologies, it is difficult to monitor the flood risk of the target basin, which leads to an increase in the risk of errors in flood forecasting and warning in the target basin, resulting in a waste of human resources. At the same time, existing flood forecasting models are often oversimplified and cannot fully consider the complex terrain, meteorological and hydrological conditions in the basin, making it difficult for the accuracy of the forecast results to meet actual needs. It is also difficult to analyze the current flood forecasting and warning results, and it is difficult to make timely adjustments to the defects of the current flood forecasting and warning schemes, resulting in excessive flood forecasting and warning risks.

[0004] In view of the above technical defects, a solution is now proposed. Summary of the Invention

[0005] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a flood forecasting and warning system and method based on diversified analysis to solve the technical defects mentioned above. The present invention preliminarily analyzes the meteorological, hydrological and geological aspects of the target basin in order to intuitively understand whether there is a flood risk in the target basin, so as to make timely forecasts and warnings, which helps the target basin to make timely flood prevention emergency measures. The flood data of the target basin is deeply divided and analyzed for the effectiveness of flood forecasting and warning through information feedback, so as to make reasonable forecast divisions for the flood performance of the target basin, and carry out reasonable flood prevention management according to different forecasting and warning operations to reduce unnecessary economic losses caused by floods. At the same time, it is judged whether the flood forecasting and warning results of the target basin are qualified, so as to make effectiveness defect alarms based on the information feedback, and then adjust the current flood forecasting and warning plan to improve the flood forecasting and warning results of the target basin.

[0006] The object of the present invention can be achieved by the following technical solutions: A flood forecasting and warning system based on diversified analysis includes a flood forecasting and warning center, a flood risk unit, a watershed analysis unit, a forecast division unit, a forecast tracing unit, and a warning execution unit;

[0007] The flood forecast and warning center is used to retrieve meteorological information and hydrological information of the target basin, and send the meteorological information and hydrological information to the flood risk unit for multi-data flood risk forecast feedback analysis, and perform discrimination processing on the obtained flood forecast and warning coefficients to obtain a normalized signal or a flood warning signal;

[0008] The watershed analysis unit is used to obtain and analyze the flood promotion evaluation coefficient of the collected soil information of the target watershed to obtain the flood promotion evaluation coefficient;

[0009] When a flood warning signal is generated, the forecast division unit is used to perform flood forecast warning effectiveness division analysis on the collected flood data of the target river basin, perform discrimination processing on the obtained advance prediction time, and obtain a red warning signal or an orange warning signal. The forecast tracing unit is used to perform flood forecast warning effectiveness evaluation and feedback analysis on the collected spatial information of the target river basin, and obtain a qualified signal or an effectiveness defect signal.

[0010] Preferably, the multi-data flood risk prediction feedback analysis process is as follows:

[0011] Set a monitoring period and set the monitoring period as a time threshold. Obtain meteorological information of the target basin within the time threshold. The meteorological information includes precipitation intensity and precipitation duration. Compare and analyze the precipitation intensity with the preset precipitation intensity threshold. Set the duration corresponding to the precipitation intensity being greater than the preset precipitation intensity threshold as the heavy precipitation duration. Obtain the ratio between the heavy precipitation duration and the precipitation duration, and set the ratio between the heavy precipitation duration and the precipitation duration as the water level risk coefficient.

[0012] The hydrological information of the target basin within the time threshold is obtained, which includes the water storage capacity and water level rise rate of the target basin. The product obtained by multiplying the corresponding values ​​of the target basin water storage capacity and water level rise rate after data normalization is set as the water storage risk coefficient.

[0013] Preferably, the water level risk coefficient, the water storage risk coefficient and the flood promotion assessment coefficient are compared and analyzed with the corresponding preset ranges, and the flood prediction coefficients Ai of the preset ranges corresponding to the water level risk coefficient, the water storage risk coefficient and the flood promotion assessment coefficient are obtained respectively, i=1, 2, 3, and the product of the flood prediction coefficients Ai corresponding to the water level risk coefficient, the water storage risk coefficient and the flood promotion assessment coefficient is obtained, and set as the flood forecast warning coefficient, and the flood forecast warning coefficient is discriminated and processed to obtain a normalized signal or a flood warning signal.

[0014] Preferably, the flood promotion evaluation coefficient acquisition and analysis process is as follows:

[0015] The target watershed is divided into g sub-region blocks, where g is a natural number greater than zero. Soil information of each sub-region block within a time threshold is obtained, including soil moisture and the average rate of increase of surface runoff. A soil moisture characteristic curve is constructed based on the time series. The duration between the moment when the soil moisture equals a preset soil moisture threshold and the initial soil moisture is obtained based on the soil moisture characteristic curve. The duration between the moment when the soil moisture equals the preset soil moisture threshold and the initial soil moisture is set as the infiltration obstruction duration.

[0016] The infiltration obstruction duration and the mean surface runoff increase rate are discriminated and processed. If the infiltration obstruction duration is less than the preset infiltration obstruction duration threshold, or the mean surface runoff increase rate is greater than or equal to the preset surface runoff increase rate threshold, the corresponding sub-region block is determined to be a confluence response block, and the ratio between the number of confluence response blocks and the total number of sub-region blocks is set as the flood promotion evaluation coefficient.

[0017] Preferably, the flood forecast warning effectiveness division analysis process is as follows:

[0018] Obtain multiple sets of historical flood data for target basins, including hydrological and meteorological information, and preprocess the flood data. The preprocessing includes cleaning and feature extraction, and then build a flood forecasting model based on the preprocessed flood data.

[0019] The input information of the flood forecast prediction model is obtained, including rainfall intensity and water storage capacity of the target basin. The output information of the flood forecast prediction model at different time points in the future is obtained, including flood probability and water level prediction value. The flood probability characteristic curve and water level prediction value characteristic curve are established with the time point as the X-axis and the flood probability and water level prediction value as the Y-axis.

[0020] Preferably, the time duration corresponding to when the flood probability reaches a preset flood probability threshold is obtained based on the flood probability characteristic curve, and it is set as the predicted flood time duration; the time duration corresponding to when the water level prediction value reaches a preset water level prediction value threshold is obtained based on the water level prediction value characteristic curve, and it is set as the water level warning time duration; the minimum value between the predicted flood time duration and the water level warning time duration is obtained, and the minimum value between the predicted flood time duration and the water level warning time duration is set as the advance prediction time duration; and at the same time, the advance prediction time duration is discriminated and processed to obtain a red warning signal or an orange warning signal.

[0021] Preferably, the flood forecast and warning effectiveness evaluation feedback analysis process is as follows:

[0022] Obtaining spatial information of the target watershed within the time threshold, the spatial information including the predicted flood inundation area and the actual flood inundation area, and then obtaining the difference between the predicted flood inundation area and the actual flood inundation area, and setting the difference between the predicted flood inundation area and the actual flood inundation area as the forecast effectiveness value;

[0023] The time difference between the predicted flood peak arrival time and the actual arrival time of the target basin within the time threshold is obtained, and the time difference between the predicted flood peak arrival time and the actual arrival time of the target basin is set as the forecast deviation value. The forecast effectiveness value and the forecast deviation value are discriminated and processed to obtain a qualified signal or an effectiveness defect signal.

[0024] The beneficial effects of the present invention are as follows:

[0025] The present invention initially analyzes the target basin from the perspectives of meteorology, hydrology, and geology to intuitively understand whether the target basin has flood risks, so as to make timely forecasts and warnings, which helps the target basin to make timely flood prevention and emergency measures. In addition, the analysis combined with the feedback results of the regional geology in the target basin helps to improve the understanding of the soil infiltration capacity and surface runoff potential in different regions, and further improve the accuracy of flood forecasting in the target basin.

[0026] The present invention conducts in-depth flood forecast and warning effectiveness classification analysis on the flood data of the target river basin through information feedback, so as to make reasonable forecast classification according to the flood performance of the target river basin, and carry out reasonable flood control management according to different forecast and warning operations to reduce unnecessary economic losses caused by floods. At the same time, it judges whether the flood forecast and warning effectiveness of the target river basin is qualified, so as to issue an effectiveness defect alarm based on the information feedback, and then adjust the current flood forecast and warning plan to improve the flood forecast and warning effectiveness of the target river basin. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0027] The present invention will be further described below with reference to the accompanying drawings;

[0028] Figure 1 It is a flow chart of the system of the present invention;

[0029] Figure 2 This is a local analysis diagram of Example 1 of the present invention;

[0030] Figure 3 It is a reference analysis diagram of the method of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0031] The following will clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention in conjunction with the accompanying drawings. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without making creative efforts are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0032] References to "embodiments" herein mean that a particular feature, structure, or characteristic described in connection with the embodiment may be included in at least one embodiment of the present invention. The appearance of the phrase in various places in the specification does not necessarily refer to the same embodiment, nor does it constitute a separate or alternative embodiment that is mutually exclusive of other embodiments. It is understood, both explicitly and implicitly, by those skilled in the art that the embodiments described herein may be combined with other embodiments; Example 1

[0033] See also Figures 1 to 3 As shown, the present invention is a flood forecasting and warning system based on diversified analysis, including a flood forecasting and warning center, a flood risk unit, a watershed analysis unit, a forecast division unit, a forecast tracing unit, and a warning execution unit. The flood forecasting and warning center is connected to the flood risk unit and the watershed analysis unit in a two-way communication manner, the flood forecasting and warning center is connected to the forecast tracing unit in a one-way communication manner, the flood risk unit is connected to the forecast division unit and the warning execution unit in a one-way communication manner, the forecast division unit is connected to the warning execution unit in a one-way communication manner, and the forecast tracing unit is connected to the warning execution unit in a one-way communication manner.

[0034] The flood forecast and warning center is used to retrieve meteorological and hydrological information of the target basin and send the meteorological and hydrological information to the flood risk unit for multi-data flood risk forecast feedback analysis, so as to intuitively understand whether the target basin will have flood risks, so as to make timely forecasts and warnings, and help the target basin to make timely flood prevention emergency measures. The specific multi-data flood risk forecast feedback analysis process is as follows:

[0035] Set a monitoring period and set the monitoring period as a time threshold, obtain meteorological information of the target basin within the time threshold, the meteorological information includes precipitation intensity and precipitation duration, compare and analyze the precipitation intensity with the preset precipitation intensity threshold, set the duration corresponding to the precipitation intensity being greater than the preset precipitation intensity threshold as the heavy precipitation duration, obtain the ratio between the heavy precipitation duration and the precipitation duration, and set the ratio between the heavy precipitation duration and the precipitation duration as the water level risk coefficient. It should be noted that the water level risk coefficient is an influencing parameter that reflects the risk of abnormal water level in the target basin due to meteorological factors;

[0036] Obtain the hydrological information of the target basin within the time threshold. The hydrological information includes the target basin's water storage capacity and the water level rise rate. The product of the target basin's water storage capacity and the water level rise rate, after data normalization, is set as the water storage risk coefficient. It should be noted that the larger the water storage risk coefficient, the greater the risk of flooding in the target basin.

[0037] The water level risk coefficient, water storage risk coefficient and flood promotion assessment coefficient are compared and analyzed with the corresponding preset ranges respectively, and the flood prediction coefficients Ai of the preset ranges corresponding to the water level risk coefficient, water storage risk coefficient and flood promotion assessment coefficient are obtained respectively, i=1, 2, 3, and the product of the flood prediction coefficients Ai corresponding to the water level risk coefficient, water storage risk coefficient and flood promotion assessment coefficient is obtained and set as the flood forecast warning coefficient, and the flood forecast warning coefficient is discriminated:

[0038] If the flood forecast warning coefficient is less than the preset flood forecast warning coefficient threshold, a normalization signal is generated;

[0039] If the flood forecast warning coefficient is greater than or equal to the preset flood forecast warning coefficient threshold, a flood warning signal is generated. The warning execution unit is used to respond to the normalization signal or the flood warning signal and immediately perform the preset warning operation corresponding to the normalization signal or the flood warning signal, so as to intuitively understand whether the target basin will have a flood risk, so as to make a timely forecast and warning;

[0040] Among them, the water level risk coefficient, water storage risk coefficient and flood promotion assessment coefficient are set in ascending order corresponding to the preset range, and each preset range is set with a corresponding flood prediction coefficient, and the flood prediction coefficients are set in ascending order;

[0041] When i=1, A1 represents the flood prediction coefficient of the preset range corresponding to the water level risk coefficient; when i=2, A2 represents the flood prediction coefficient of the preset range corresponding to the water storage risk coefficient; when i=3, A3 represents the flood prediction coefficient of the preset range corresponding to the water storage risk coefficient, Ai>1;

[0042] The watershed analysis unit is used to obtain and analyze flood promotion evaluation coefficients based on the collected soil information of the target watershed. This analysis, from a soil perspective, helps understand the soil infiltration capacity and surface runoff potential of different regions, helping to provide data support for flood risk prediction. The specific flood promotion evaluation coefficient acquisition and analysis process is as follows:

[0043] The target watershed is divided into g sub-region blocks, where g is a natural number greater than zero. Soil information of each sub-region block within the time threshold is obtained. The soil information includes soil moisture and the average rate of increase of surface runoff. A soil moisture characteristic curve is constructed based on the time series. The time duration between the moment when the soil moisture equals the preset soil moisture threshold and the initial soil moisture is obtained based on the soil moisture characteristic curve. The time duration between the moment when the soil moisture equals the preset soil moisture threshold and the initial soil moisture is set as the infiltration obstruction time duration. It should be noted that the smaller the value of the infiltration obstruction time duration, the lower the soil infiltration capacity of the sub-region block and the greater the flood risk;

[0044] The infiltration obstruction duration and the mean surface runoff increase rate are discriminated and processed. If the infiltration obstruction duration is less than the preset infiltration obstruction duration threshold, or the mean surface runoff increase rate is greater than or equal to the preset surface runoff increase rate threshold, the corresponding sub-region block is determined to be a confluence response block, and the ratio between the number of confluence response blocks and the total number of sub-region blocks is set as the flood promotion assessment coefficient. It should be noted that the larger the value of the flood promotion assessment coefficient, the greater the flood risk of the target basin. Example 2

[0045] When a flood warning signal is generated, the forecast classification unit is used to perform flood forecast and warning effectiveness classification analysis on the collected flood data of the target basin, so as to make reasonable forecast classification based on the flood performance of the target basin and carry out reasonable flood control management according to different forecast and warning operations to reduce unnecessary economic losses caused by floods. The specific flood forecast and warning effectiveness classification analysis process is as follows:

[0046] Obtain multiple sets of historical flood data for target basins, including hydrological and meteorological information, and preprocess the flood data. The preprocessing includes cleaning and feature extraction, and then build a flood forecasting model based on the preprocessed flood data.

[0047] Obtain input information of the flood forecasting model, including rainfall intensity, target basin water storage capacity, etc., and obtain output information of the flood forecasting model at different time points in the future, including flood probability and water level prediction value;

[0048] With the time point as the X-axis and the flood probability and water level prediction value as the Y-axis, a flood probability characteristic curve and a water level prediction value characteristic curve are established;

[0049] Based on the flood probability characteristic curve, the time corresponding to when the flood probability reaches a preset flood probability threshold is obtained, and the time corresponding to when the flood probability reaches a preset flood probability threshold is set as the predicted flood time. Based on the water level prediction value characteristic curve, the time corresponding to when the water level prediction value reaches a preset water level prediction value threshold is obtained, and the time corresponding to when the water level prediction value reaches a preset water level prediction value threshold is set as the water level warning time. The minimum value between the predicted flood time and the water level warning time is obtained, and the minimum value between the predicted flood time and the water level warning time is set as the advance prediction time. The warning execution unit is used to respond to the advance prediction time, immediately display the advance prediction time, and simultaneously perform discrimination processing on the advance prediction time:

[0050] If the advance prediction duration is less than the preset advance prediction duration threshold, a red warning signal is generated;

[0051] If the advance prediction duration is greater than or equal to the preset advance prediction duration threshold, an orange warning signal is generated, and the warning execution unit is used to respond to the red warning signal or the orange warning signal and immediately perform the preset warning operation corresponding to the red warning signal or the orange warning signal, so as to carry out reasonable flood control management according to different forecast and warning operations to reduce unnecessary economic losses caused by floods;

[0052] Among them, the risk level corresponding to the orange warning signal is lower than the risk level corresponding to the red warning signal. The higher the risk level, the shorter the flood control management response time will be and the higher the demand for flood emergency management will be.

[0053] When a flood warning signal is generated, the forecast tracing unit is used to conduct a flood forecast and warning effectiveness evaluation and feedback analysis on the collected spatial information of the target basin to determine whether the flood forecast and warning effectiveness of the target basin is qualified, so as to issue an effectiveness defect alarm based on the information feedback and adjust the current flood forecast and warning plan to improve the flood forecast and warning effectiveness of the target basin. The specific flood forecast and warning effectiveness evaluation and feedback analysis process is as follows:

[0054] Obtain the spatial information of the target basin within the time threshold, which includes the predicted flood inundation area and the actual flood inundation area. Then obtain the difference between the predicted flood inundation area and the actual flood inundation area, and set the difference between the predicted flood inundation area and the actual flood inundation area as the forecast effectiveness value. It should be noted that the larger the forecast effectiveness value, the greater the risk of deviation in the flood forecast and warning effectiveness of the target basin. In other words, analyze whether the flood forecast and warning effectiveness is qualified from a spatial perspective;

[0055] Obtain the time difference between the predicted flood peak arrival time and the actual arrival time of the target basin within the time threshold, and set the time difference between the predicted flood peak arrival time and the actual arrival time of the target basin as the forecast deviation value. It should be noted that the larger the forecast deviation value, the greater the risk of forecast effectiveness defects;

[0056] Discrimination processing of forecast effectiveness value and forecast deviation value:

[0057] If the forecast success value is less than the preset forecast success value threshold, and the forecast deviation value is less than the preset forecast deviation value threshold, a qualified signal is generated;

[0058] If the forecast effectiveness value is greater than or equal to the preset forecast effectiveness value threshold, or the forecast deviation value is greater than or equal to the preset forecast deviation value threshold, an effectiveness defect signal is generated, and the early warning execution unit is used to respond to the qualified signal or the effectiveness defect signal, and immediately perform the preset early warning operation corresponding to the qualified signal or the effectiveness defect signal, so as to make an effectiveness defect alarm based on the information feedback, make improvements to the existing defects, and adjust the current flood forecast and early warning plan to improve the flood forecast and early warning effectiveness of the target basin. Example 3

[0059] The flood forecasting and warning method based on diversified analysis includes the following steps:

[0060] Step 1: A multi-data flood risk forecast feedback analysis process for the target basin based on multiple data sources, i.e., performing multi-data flood risk forecast feedback analysis on the retrieved meteorological information, hydrological information, and flood promotion evaluation coefficients, and performing discriminant processing on the obtained flood forecast and warning coefficients to obtain a normalized signal or flood warning signal;

[0061] Step 2: Soil information analysis and flood promotion evaluation coefficient acquisition process based on regional division, that is, soil information is analyzed to obtain flood promotion evaluation coefficients, the flood formation risk of the target basin is determined, and the flood promotion evaluation coefficients are obtained;

[0062] Step 3: Based on the flood forecast and warning classification process constructed under the flood forecast model, the flood forecast and warning effectiveness classification analysis is performed on the collected flood data of the target basin, and the obtained advance prediction time is discriminated and processed to obtain a red warning signal or an orange warning signal;

[0063] Step 4: Flood forecast and warning effectiveness evaluation and feedback process based on the spatial information analysis of the target basin, that is, the collected spatial information of the target basin is analyzed for flood forecast and warning effectiveness evaluation and feedback, and the obtained forecast effectiveness value and forecast deviation value are discriminated and processed to obtain a qualified signal or a effectiveness defect signal;

[0064] In summary, the present invention preliminarily analyzes the target basin from the three perspectives of meteorology, hydrology and geology, so as to intuitively understand whether there is a flood risk in the target basin, so as to make timely forecasts and warnings, which is helpful for the target basin to make timely flood prevention emergency measures, and combines the feedback results of regional geology in the target basin for analysis, which helps to improve the understanding of soil infiltration capacity and surface runoff potential in different regions, and further improve the accuracy of flood forecasting in the target basin. Through information feedback, the flood data of the target basin is deeply divided and analyzed for the effectiveness of flood forecasting and warning, so as to make reasonable forecast divisions for the flood performance of the target basin, and carry out reasonable flood prevention management according to different forecasting and warning operations to reduce unnecessary economic losses caused by floods. At the same time, it is judged whether the flood forecasting and warning results of the target basin are qualified, so as to make effectiveness defect alarms based on the information feedback, and then adjust the current flood forecasting and warning plan to improve the flood forecasting and warning results of the target basin.

[0065] The threshold is set to facilitate comparison. The size of the threshold depends on the amount of sample data and the number of bases set by technicians in this field for each set of sample data; as long as it does not affect the proportional relationship between the parameter and the quantized value.

[0066] The above description is only a preferred specific embodiment of the present invention, but the scope of protection of the present invention is not limited thereto. Any technician familiar with the technical field, within the technical scope disclosed by the present invention, who makes equivalent replacements or changes based on the technical solution and inventive concept of the present invention, should be covered by the scope of protection of the present invention.

Claims

1. A flood forecasting and warning system based on diversified analysis, characterized by: It includes flood forecast and warning center, flood risk unit, watershed analysis unit, forecast division unit, forecast tracing unit and warning execution unit; The flood forecast and warning center is used to retrieve meteorological information and hydrological information of the target basin, and send the meteorological information and hydrological information to the flood risk unit for multi-data flood risk forecast feedback analysis, and perform discrimination processing on the obtained flood forecast and warning coefficients to obtain a normalized signal or a flood warning signal; The watershed analysis unit is used to obtain and analyze the flood promotion evaluation coefficient of the collected soil information of the target watershed to obtain the flood promotion evaluation coefficient; When a flood warning signal is generated, the forecast classification unit is used to perform flood forecast and warning effectiveness classification analysis on the collected flood data of the target basin, perform discrimination processing on the obtained advance prediction duration, and obtain a red warning signal or an orange warning signal. The forecast tracing unit is used to perform flood forecast and warning effectiveness evaluation and feedback analysis on the collected spatial information of the target basin, and obtain a qualified signal or a effectiveness defect signal. The multi-data flood risk prediction feedback analysis process is as follows: Set a monitoring period and set the monitoring period as a time threshold. Obtain meteorological information of the target basin within the time threshold. The meteorological information includes precipitation intensity and precipitation duration. Compare and analyze the precipitation intensity with the preset precipitation intensity threshold. Set the duration corresponding to the precipitation intensity being greater than the preset precipitation intensity threshold as the heavy precipitation duration. Obtain the ratio between the heavy precipitation duration and the precipitation duration, and set the ratio between the heavy precipitation duration and the precipitation duration as the water level risk coefficient. Obtain the hydrological information of the target basin within the time threshold, which includes the water storage capacity and water level rise rate of the target basin. The product of the corresponding values ​​of the target basin water storage capacity and water level rise rate after data normalization is set as the water storage risk coefficient. The water level risk coefficient, water storage risk coefficient and flood promotion assessment coefficient are compared and analyzed with the corresponding preset ranges respectively, and the flood prediction coefficients Ai of the preset ranges corresponding to the water level risk coefficient, water storage risk coefficient and flood promotion assessment coefficient are obtained respectively, i=1, 2, 3, and the product of the flood prediction coefficients Ai corresponding to the water level risk coefficient, water storage risk coefficient and flood promotion assessment coefficient is obtained and set as the flood forecast and warning coefficient, and the flood forecast and warning coefficient is discriminated and processed to obtain a normalized signal or a flood warning signal; The process of obtaining and analyzing the flood promotion evaluation coefficient is as follows: The target watershed is divided into g sub-region blocks, where g is a natural number greater than zero. Soil information of each sub-region block within a time threshold is obtained, including soil moisture and the average rate of increase of surface runoff. A soil moisture characteristic curve is constructed based on the time series. The duration between the moment when the soil moisture equals a preset soil moisture threshold and the initial soil moisture is obtained based on the soil moisture characteristic curve. The duration between the moment when the soil moisture equals the preset soil moisture threshold and the initial soil moisture is set as the infiltration obstruction duration. The infiltration obstruction duration and the mean surface runoff increase rate are discriminated and processed. If the infiltration obstruction duration is less than the preset infiltration obstruction duration threshold, or the mean surface runoff increase rate is greater than or equal to the preset surface runoff increase rate threshold, the corresponding sub-region block is determined to be a confluence response block, and the ratio between the number of confluence response blocks and the total number of sub-region blocks is set as the flood promotion evaluation coefficient.

2. The flood forecasting and warning system based on diversified analysis according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The flood forecast and warning effectiveness classification and analysis process is as follows: Obtain multiple sets of historical flood data for target basins, including hydrological and meteorological information, and preprocess the flood data. The preprocessing includes cleaning and feature extraction, and then build a flood forecasting model based on the preprocessed flood data. The input information of the flood forecast prediction model is obtained, including rainfall intensity and water storage capacity of the target basin. The output information of the flood forecast prediction model at different time points in the future is obtained, including flood probability and water level prediction value. The flood probability characteristic curve and water level prediction value characteristic curve are established with the time point as the X-axis and the flood probability and water level prediction value as the Y-axis.

3. The flood forecasting and warning system based on diversified analysis according to claim 2 is characterized in that: Based on the flood probability characteristic curve, the time corresponding to the flood probability reaching the preset flood probability threshold is obtained, and it is set as the predicted flood time. Based on the water level prediction value characteristic curve, the time corresponding to the water level prediction value reaching the preset water level prediction value threshold is obtained, and it is set as the water level warning time. The minimum value between the predicted flood time and the water level warning time is obtained, and the minimum value between the predicted flood time and the water level warning time is set as the advance prediction time. At the same time, the advance prediction time is discriminated and processed to obtain a red warning signal or an orange warning signal.

4. The flood forecasting and warning system based on diversified analysis according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The flood forecast and warning effectiveness evaluation and feedback analysis process is as follows: Obtaining spatial information of the target watershed within the time threshold, the spatial information including the predicted flood inundation area and the actual flood inundation area, and then obtaining the difference between the predicted flood inundation area and the actual flood inundation area, and setting the difference between the predicted flood inundation area and the actual flood inundation area as the forecast effectiveness value; The time difference between the predicted flood peak arrival time and the actual arrival time of the target basin within the time threshold is obtained, and the time difference between the predicted flood peak arrival time and the actual arrival time of the target basin is set as the forecast deviation value. The forecast effectiveness value and the forecast deviation value are discriminated and processed to obtain a qualified signal or an effectiveness defect signal.

5. A flood forecasting and warning method based on diversified analysis, which is applied to the flood forecasting and warning system based on diversified analysis according to any one of claims 1 to 4, characterized in that: The following steps are involved: Step 1: Multi-data flood risk prediction feedback analysis process for the target basin based on multiple data sources; Step 2: Soil information analysis and flood promotion evaluation coefficient acquisition process based on regional division; Step 3: Flood forecast and warning classification process based on the construction of flood forecast prediction model; Step 4: Flood forecast and warning effectiveness evaluation and feedback process based on spatial information analysis of the target watershed.

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