A large-scale urban bridge-tunnel network evaluation method based on quantified total risk loss

Abstract

The application discloses a kind of based on quantification total risk loss Large-scale city bridge tunnel network evaluation method, the method is: one, to open source geographic platform crawler, obtain road network topology data and establish bridge tunnel network model;Two, according to road grade and intersection situation, the edge and node of bridge tunnel network model are simplified;Three, traffic speed data is converted, and daily traffic volume data is obtained;Four, the monomer structure score data in detection report is converted, and monomer structure failure probability is obtained;Five, define spatial non-homogeneous Markov chain simulation structure state evolution;Six, define the direct and indirect total loss quantification formula considering structure failure, casualties, traffic closed detour and additional carbon emission;Seven, the long-term annual total risk loss of a city large-scale bridge tunnel network is quantified and evaluated.The method solves the current evaluation bridge tunnel network method only concerns safety loss and lacks consideration of functional loss, and is suitable for efficient management and maintenance of large-scale bridge tunnel network.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to a bridge and tunnel network assessment method, specifically a large-scale urban bridge and tunnel network assessment method based on quantifying total risk loss. Background Technology

[0002] As lifeline projects of urban transportation networks, bridges and tunnels play a crucial role in connecting different areas over short distances, fulfilling the public's need for convenient and efficient travel. However, due to their structural characteristics, bridges and tunnels are also vulnerable links in the transportation network, experiencing faster damage and aging during long-term service. This makes them more susceptible to extreme accidents, resulting in individual structural failures, numerous casualties, network degradation, and urban environmental pollution, causing significant negative impacts on safety and functionality. Therefore, ensuring their safe and smooth operation is a prerequisite for the safe operation of urban transportation networks and regional economic development.

[0003] Ensuring the normal use of bridge and tunnel structures requires financial investment. Given the gradual degradation of these structures, it is crucial to scientifically plan the allocation of funds based on the condition and function of each bridge and tunnel. Currently, the commonly used method worldwide is maintenance through a rating and grading system for individual structures. This approach, which focuses only on local aspects, completely ignores the topological characteristics of individual structures within the transportation network, leading to a significant waste of human, material, and financial resources.

[0004] Bridge and tunnel structures are distributed across different locations within transportation networks and handle varying traffic volumes, thus possessing varying degrees of importance at the network level. Quantifying these importance using appropriate measurement methods has become a research hotspot in recent years. Current research primarily considers the impact of individual structural failures on network safety, obtaining importance indicators through vulnerability analysis. While these methods provide in-depth analysis of safety losses, they do not yet consider the dimension of functional loss. Therefore, this paper proposes an urban bridge and tunnel network assessment method that fully considers the total risk loss of both safety and function. This method can provide a more intuitive and reasonable quantitative estimate than traditional assessment methods, enabling urban traffic management departments to conduct more scientific and targeted maintenance. Summary of the Invention

[0005] To address the problem that current urban bridge and tunnel network status assessments do not adequately consider safety and functional losses, this invention provides a large-scale urban bridge and tunnel network assessment method based on quantified total risk loss. This method overcomes the shortcoming of current bridge and tunnel network evaluation methods that only focus on safety losses while neglecting functional losses. It achieves an intuitive and reasonable quantitative estimate of the total risk loss of bridge and tunnel networks, making it suitable for the efficient management and maintenance of large-scale bridge and tunnel networks.

[0006] The objective of this invention is achieved through the following technical solution:

[0007] A method for assessing large-scale urban bridge and tunnel networks based on quantified total risk loss includes the following steps:

[0008] Step 1: Crawl the open-source geographic platform to obtain road network topology data and build a bridge and tunnel network model;

[0009] Step 2: Simplify the edges and nodes of the bridge-tunnel network model according to road grade and intersection conditions;

[0010] Step 3: Convert the traffic speed data to obtain the average daily traffic volume data;

[0011] Step 4: Convert the individual structure score data in the test report to obtain the probability of individual structure failure;

[0012] Step 5: Define a spatial non-homogeneous Markov chain to simulate the structural state evolution;

[0013] Step 6: Define a quantitative formula for the direct and indirect total losses that take into account structural failure, casualties, traffic closures and detours, and additional carbon emissions;

[0014] Step 7: Quantitatively assess the long-term annual total risk loss of a city's large-scale bridge and tunnel network.

[0015] Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following advantages:

[0016] 1. By defining a quantitative formula for the total direct and indirect losses that takes into account structural failure, casualties, traffic closures and detours, and additional carbon emissions, this paper addresses the shortcoming of current methods for evaluating bridge and tunnel networks that only consider safety losses and neglect functional losses. It achieves an intuitive and reasonable quantitative estimate of the total risk losses of bridge and tunnel networks and is applicable to the efficient management and maintenance of large-scale bridge and tunnel networks.

[0017] 2. By conducting a long-term risk loss assessment on a large-scale bridge and tunnel network in a city, which includes 681 individual bridges and tunnels, 462 nodes, and 812 edges, this invention demonstrates that it can provide an intuitive and reasonable quantitative estimate of the total risk loss of a long-term bridge and tunnel network, and can provide support for the efficient management and maintenance of large-scale bridge and tunnel networks. Attached Figure Description

[0018] Figure 1 This is a flowchart of the large-scale urban bridge and tunnel network assessment method based on quantified total risk loss of the present invention.

[0019] Figure 2 To simplify the topology diagram of the bridge-tunnel network model;

[0020] Figure 3 A graph showing the evolution of the percentage of bridge grades within the Third Ring Road of Wuhan.

[0021] Figure 4A bar chart showing the number and grade of bridges within the Third Ring Road of Wuhan.

[0022] Figure 5 A graph showing the evolution of the percentage of bridge grades outside the Third Ring Road in Wuhan.

[0023] Figure 6 A bar chart showing the number of bridges by grade outside the Third Ring Road in Wuhan.

[0024] Figure 7 A graph showing the total loss values ​​of the top ten individual structures without considering the probability of failure.

[0025] Figure 8 The top ten individual structures in the bridge-tunnel network are ranked without considering the probability of failure.

[0026] Figure 9 A diagram showing the direct losses of the top ten individual structures without considering the probability of failure.

[0027] Figure 10 A diagram showing the indirect losses of the top ten individual structures without considering the probability of failure.

[0028] Figure 11 This study examines the evolution of the annual total risk loss value of Wuhan's bridge and tunnel network, taking into account the probability of failure. Detailed Implementation

[0029] The technical solution of the present invention will be further described below with reference to the accompanying drawings, but it is not limited thereto. Any modifications or equivalent substitutions to the technical solution of the present invention that do not depart from the spirit and scope of the technical solution of the present invention should be covered within the protection scope of the present invention.

[0030] This invention provides a method for evaluating large-scale urban bridge and tunnel networks based on quantified total risk loss, such as... Figure 1 As shown, the method includes the following steps:

[0031] Step 1: Crawl the open-source geographic platform to obtain road network topology data and build a bridge and tunnel network model.

[0032] In this step, the road network topology data includes road type, direction, length, number of lanes, and bridge and tunnel names, types, and latitude and longitude.

[0033] In this step, the bridge and tunnel network model is a network model with intersections as nodes, roads as undirected edges, and individual bridges and tunnels as edge failure elements.

[0034] Step 2: Simplify the edges and nodes of the bridge and tunnel network model according to the road grade and intersection conditions.

[0035] In this step, the method for simplifying the edges is as follows: (1) Delete roads that have no significant impact on the network topology performance, including but not limited to internal road sections and forest trails within the region and community, and retain only highways, trunk roads, main roads, secondary roads and tertiary roads; (2) Do not simplify highways, trunk roads and main roads, and delete secondary roads and tertiary roads if there are no bridges or tunnels on the edge, and retain them if there are bridges or tunnels on the edge.

[0036] In this step, the method for simplifying nodes is as follows: if the number of nodes is sparse and clustered within a relatively short range (1km), then the nodes are clustered together.

[0037] Step 3: Convert the traffic speed data to obtain the average daily traffic volume data.

[0038] In this step, the daily average traffic volume data is obtained by converting the speed data at representative times into traffic flow data based on the BPR formula, then multiplying it by the time window length and summing the results. The specific formula is as follows:

[0039]

[0040] In the formula, V k,i Let k represent the actual speed of the road at time i; V k,f and C k Let α and β be the free-driving speed and traffic capacity of road k, respectively, defined according to the latest "Code for Design of Urban Road Engineering": 100 km / h and 2300 pcu / h for expressways, 80 km / h and 2100 pcu / h for trunk roads, 50 km / h and 1700 pcu / h for major roads, 40 km / h and 1650 pcu / h for minor roads, and 30 km / h and 1600 pcu / h for tertiary roads; α and β are the control parameters of the BPR formula, respectively, with the standard BPR formula taking values ​​of 0.15 and 4.0. This invention adopts the standard formula value method; CDI k,i Let k represent the congestion index of road at time i; T k,i and T k,f These represent the actual passage time and the passage time under free-flowing conditions, respectively; Q k,i Let k represent the traffic flow at time i; T iLet n be the length of the time window representing time i. The morning rush hour (7:00-9:00) and evening rush hour (17:00-19:00) are each 1 hour, the late night hour (23:00-5:00) is 3 hours, and the remaining time periods are 2 hours. n represents the number of representative times. Based on the time window lengths, there are 13 times: 2:00, 5:00, 7:00, 8:00, 9:00, 11:00, 13:00, 15:00, 17:00, 18:00, 19:00, 21:00, and 23:00, i.e., n = 13; N k Let ADT be the number of lanes on road k. k Let K be the average daily traffic volume of road k.

[0041] Step 4: Convert the individual structure score data in the test report to obtain the probability of individual structure failure.

[0042] In this step, the calculation of the failure probability of a single structure is based on the latest "Technical Standard for Urban Bridge Maintenance" and the AASHTO standard. The specific formula is as follows:

[0043]

[0044] P f,a =Φ(-β) a )

[0045] In the formula, β a BCI is the reliability index for single-unit structure a. a The test report score for monomer structure a; P f,a Let Φ(·) be the failure probability of the single-unit structure a; Φ(·) is the standard normal distribution function.

[0046] Step 5: Define a spatial nonhomogeneous Markov chain to simulate the structural state evolution.

[0047] In this step, the spatial non-homogeneous Markov chain is defined according to the local traffic management authority's regulations on freight vehicle restrictions. If there are relevant local regulations, the non-homogeneous Markov chain is defined based on the restricted area; if there are no relevant regulations, the non-homogeneous Markov chain degenerates into a homogeneous Markov chain.

[0048] In this step, the transition probability matrix of the Markov chain only considers adjacent rating degradation, and does not consider cross-level degradation or rating improvement due to maintenance, specifically expressed as follows:

[0049]

[0050] In the formula, T p p is the transition probability matrix; ij Let p be the probability that a single-unit structure with state rating i will be in a state of rating j in the following year, 0 ≤ p. ij ≤1, Since cross-level degradation and rating upgrades are not taken into account, All unknown probabilities are fitted based on the failure probabilities calculated from the scoring data in the test report.

[0051] Step 6: Define a quantitative formula for the total direct and indirect losses that take into account structural failure, casualties, traffic closures and detours, and additional carbon emissions.

[0052] In this step, the total direct and indirect losses, including structural failure, personal injury, traffic closures and detours, and additional carbon emissions, are quantified to include structural repair costs, carbon emission costs due to structural failure, compensation costs for personal injury, detour time costs, detour length costs, and carbon emission costs due to detours. The specific formulas are as follows:

[0053]

[0054] In the formula, These are the costs incurred due to the failure of a single structural element (a), including repair costs, structural carbon emission costs, personal injury compensation costs, detour time costs, detour length costs, and detour carbon emission costs. and For direct losses, and This represents indirect losses; K1 is the structural cost per unit area, which is taken as $1294 / m² according to the AASHTO standard. 2 W a and L a K1 and K2 represent the planar width and length of the single-unit structure a, respectively, in meters; K3 and K2 represent the market carbon price and carbon emissions per unit area of ​​the structure, respectively, which are 97.49 yuan / t and 33600 g / m², based on the carbon market trading price in my country at the end of last year and the AASHTO regulations. 2 V a,average D represents the average velocity at a representative moment on the road where the single structure a is located; car and D human The figures are for vehicle damage and personal injury compensation, respectively. The former is set at 150,000 yuan, and the latter is calculated based on the previous year's per capita disposable income of urban residents in the locality, calculated over a period of 20 years (reducing the period by one year for each year over 60 years old, and using 5 years for those over 75 years old); O is the average number of occupants per vehicle, taken as 1.56 according to the AASHTO standard; R1 and R2 are the percentages of the population under / over 60 years old in the local census results; TV car and TV truck The time values ​​for cars and trucks are $7.05 / h and $20.56 / h respectively, according to AASHTO standards; C car and C truckThe driving costs per kilometer for small cars and trucks are $0.08 / km and $0.375 / km respectively, according to AASHTO standards; CE car and CE truck These represent carbon emissions per kilometer for small cars and trucks, respectively, calculated as 161g / km and 276g / km according to AASHTO standards; T a D represents the percentage of total traffic volume for trucks on the road where the single structure a is located; a d a and S a These represent the detour distance, detour days, and detour speed caused by the failure of the single structure a, respectively.

[0055] Step 7: Quantitatively assess the long-term annual total risk loss of a city's large-scale bridge and tunnel network.

[0056] In this step, the formula for calculating the predicted score of the single-unit structure in year t is as follows:

[0057]

[0058] In the formula, Let v be the predicted score of the single-unit structure a in year t. a Let be the current state vector of structural unit a. This state vector is a unique vector related to the current score and rating. If the current score of the unit is 91 points (corresponding to level 1), the state vector is represented as [91.00.00.00.00.0]; if the current score of the unit is 75 points (corresponding to level 3), the state vector is represented as [0.00.075.00.00.0].

[0059] In this step, the formula for calculating the total annual risk loss value of the bridge and tunnel network is as follows:

[0060]

[0061] R a =P f,a ×TL a

[0062]

[0063] In the formula, TL a R represents the loss quantification value for a single-unit structure a without considering the probability of failure; a R is the quantified risk loss value considering the failure probability of a single-unit structure a; network is the total risk quantification value of the entire bridge and tunnel network; N is the number of individual structures in the bridge and tunnel network.

[0064] Example:

[0065] Step 1: Use the open-source geographic platform OpenStreetMap to crawl and obtain the road network topology data of Wuhan City. Obtain data including road type, direction, length, number of lanes, and bridge and tunnel unit names, types, latitude and longitude. Then, establish a network model with intersections as nodes, roads as undirected edges, and bridge and tunnel units as edge failure elements.

[0066] Step 2: Simplify the edges and nodes of the network model according to road grade and intersection conditions. The simplified Wuhan bridge and tunnel network topology is as follows: Figure 2 As shown.

[0067] Step 3: Based on the BPR formula, convert the speed data at each representative moment into traffic flow data, then multiply it by the time window length and sum them up to obtain the daily average traffic volume data. The specific formula is as follows:

[0068]

[0069] In the formula, V k,i Let k represent the actual speed of the road at time i; V k,f and C k Let α and β be the free-driving speed and traffic capacity of road k, respectively, defined according to the latest "Code for Design of Urban Road Engineering": 100 km / h and 2300 pcu / h for expressways, 80 km / h and 2100 pcu / h for trunk roads, 50 km / h and 1700 pcu / h for major roads, 40 km / h and 1650 pcu / h for minor roads, and 30 km / h and 1600 pcu / h for tertiary roads; α and β are the control parameters of the BPR formula, respectively, with the standard BPR formula taking values ​​of 0.15 and 4.0. This invention adopts the standard formula value method; CDI k,i Let k represent the congestion index of road at time i; T k,i and T k,f These represent the actual passage time and the passage time under free-flowing conditions, respectively; Q k,i Let k represent the traffic flow at time i; T i Let n be the length of the time window representing time i. The morning rush hour (7:00-9:00) and evening rush hour (17:00-19:00) are each 1 hour, the late night hour (23:00-5:00) is 3 hours, and the remaining time periods are 2 hours. n represents the number of representative times. Based on the time window lengths, there are 13 times: 2:00, 5:00, 7:00, 8:00, 9:00, 11:00, 13:00, 15:00, 17:00, 18:00, 19:00, 21:00, and 23:00, i.e., n = 13; N k Let ADT be the number of lanes on road k. k Let K be the average daily traffic volume of road k.

[0070] Step 4: Referring to the latest "Technical Standards for Urban Bridge Maintenance" and AASHTO standards, convert the scoring data in the inspection report to obtain the probability of structural failure. The specific formula is as follows:

[0071]

[0072] P f,a =Φ(-β) a )

[0073] In the formula, β a BCI is the reliability index for monolithic structure a. a The test report score for monomer structure a, P f,a Let Φ(·) be the failure probability of the single-unit structure a, and let Φ(·) be the standard normal distribution function.

[0074] Step 5: According to the "Announcement on Further Optimizing the Regulations on the Management of Freight Vehicle Traffic" (Wuhan Public Security Bureau Traffic Management Bureau

[2023] No. 64) issued in 2023, bridges and tunnels within the Third Ring Road restrict the passage of some large freight vehicles. Therefore, non-homogeneous Markov chains are defined inside and outside the Third Ring Road. Simultaneously, the transition probability matrix only considers adjacent rating degradation, not cross-level degradation or rating increases due to maintenance, specifically expressed as follows:

[0075]

[0076] In the formula, T p Let p be the transition probability matrix. ij Let p be the probability that a single-unit structure with state rating i will be in a state of rating j in the following year, 0 ≤ p. ij ≤1, Since cross-level degradation and rating upgrades are not taken into account, All unknown probabilities are fitted based on the failure probabilities calculated from the scoring data in the test report.

[0077] Step Six: Define a quantitative formula for the direct and indirect total losses considering structural failure, personal injury, traffic closures and detours, and additional carbon emissions. This formula quantifies the costs of structural repair, carbon emissions from structural failure, compensation for personal injury, detour time, detour length, and carbon emissions from detours. The specific formula is as follows:

[0078]

[0079] In the formula, These are the costs incurred due to the failure of a single structural element (a), including repair costs, structural carbon emission costs, personal injury compensation costs, detour time costs, detour length costs, and detour carbon emission costs. and For direct losses, and This represents indirect losses; K1 is the structural cost per unit area, which is taken as $1294 / m² according to the AASHTO standard. 2 W a and L a K1 and K2 represent the planar width and length of the single-unit structure a, respectively, in meters; K2 and K3 represent the market carbon price and carbon emissions per unit area of ​​the structure, respectively, which are 97.49 yuan / t and 33600 g / m², based on my country's carbon market trading price and AASHTO regulations as of the end of last year. 2 V a,average D represents the average velocity at a representative moment along the road where the single structure a is located; car and D human The figures are for vehicle damage and personal injury compensation, respectively. The former is set at 150,000 yuan, and the latter is calculated based on the previous year's per capita disposable income of urban residents in Wuhan (64,346 yuan) according to the Supreme People's Court document, calculated over 20 years (reducing the period by one year for each year over 60 years old, and using 5 years for those over 75 years old); O is the average number of occupants per vehicle, set at 1.56 according to the AASHTO standard; R1 and R2 are the proportions of the population under / over 60 years old in the local census results, set at 0.8277 and 0.1723 respectively based on the latest Wuhan census results; TV car and TV truck The time values ​​for cars and trucks are $7.05 / h and $20.56 / h respectively, according to AASHTO standards; C car and C truck The driving costs per kilometer for small cars and trucks are $0.08 / km and $0.375 / km respectively, according to AASHTO standards; CE car and CE truck These represent carbon emissions per kilometer for small cars and trucks, respectively, calculated as 161g / km and 276g / km according to AASHTO standards; T a D represents the percentage of total traffic volume for trucks on the road where the single structure a is located; a d a and S a These represent the detour distance, detour days, and detour speed caused by the failure of the single structure a, respectively.

[0080] Step 7: Conduct a long-term assessment of the large-scale bridge and tunnel network in Wuhan, which includes 681 individual bridges and tunnels, 462 nodes, and 812 edges. The formula for calculating the predicted structural score of an individual bridge or tunnel in year t is as follows:

[0081]

[0082] In the formula, Let v be the predicted score of the single-unit structure a in year t. a Let be the current state vector of structural unit a. This state vector is a unique vector related to the current score and rating. If the current score of the unit is 91 points (corresponding to level 1), the state vector is represented as [91.00.00.00.00.0]; if the current score of the unit is 75 points (corresponding to level 3), the state vector is represented as [0.00.075.00.00.0]. Figure 3 , Figure 4 The following figures represent the long-term evolution of bridge and tunnel structures within the Third Ring Road. It can be seen that the evolution rate within the Third Ring Road is relatively slow. After 30 years, the proportion of structures at levels 4-5 is less than 30%, and after 50 years, it is still less than 50%. Figure 5 , Figure 6 The figures represent the long-term evolution of bridge and tunnel structures outside the Third Ring Road. It can be seen that the evolution rate inside the Third Ring Road is significantly faster, with the proportion of Class 4-5 reaching 56.9% after 50 years.

[0083] The formula for calculating the total annual risk loss value of bridge and tunnel networks is as follows:

[0084]

[0085] R a =P f,a ×TL a

[0086]

[0087] In the formula, TL a R is the loss quantification value of the single-unit structure a without considering the failure probability. a R is the quantified value of risk loss considering the probability of failure for a single structure a. network This represents the total risk quantification value for the entire bridge and tunnel network. Figure 7 , Figure 8 The figures represent the total loss values ​​of the top ten individual structures and their positions in the bridge and tunnel network without considering the probability of failure. It can be seen that most of the top-ranked structures are Yangtze River bridges, because they not only have large structural spans, but also would result in a huge detour distance if they fail. The rest are bridges leading to Wuhan Tianhe Airport, because they carry a large volume of traffic. Figure 9 , Figure 10 The charts show the direct and indirect losses of the top ten individual structures, excluding failure probability. It can be seen that among direct losses, carbon emissions account for a relatively small proportion, while personnel and vehicle losses are comparable to infrastructure losses. Among indirect losses, carbon emissions account for the vast majority, followed by detour time, and detour distance accounts for the smallest proportion. Figure 11 This represents the evolution of the total annual risk loss value of Wuhan's bridge and tunnel network during long-term service, taking into account the probability of failure.

Claims

1. A method for evaluating large-scale urban bridge and tunnel networks based on quantified total risk loss, characterized in that... The method includes the following steps: Step 1: Crawl the open-source geographic platform to obtain road network topology data and build a bridge and tunnel network model; Step 2: Simplify the edges and nodes of the bridge-tunnel network model according to road grade and intersection conditions; Step 3: Convert the traffic speed data to obtain the daily average traffic volume data. The daily average traffic volume data is obtained by converting the speed data at each representative moment into traffic flow data based on the BPR formula, and then multiplying it by the time window length and summing the results. The specific formula is as follows: In the formula, For roads Representative moment The actual speed; and Roads Free driving speed and traffic capacity; and These are the control parameters for the BPR formula; For roads Representative moment Congestion indicators; and These are the actual passage time and the passage time under free-driving conditions, respectively. For roads Representative moment Traffic flow at that time; For representative moments Time window length; For roads The number of lanes; To represent the number of moments; For roads The average daily traffic volume; Step 4: Convert the individual structure score data in the test report to obtain the probability of individual structure failure; Step 5: Define a spatial non-homogeneous Markov chain to simulate the structural state evolution; Step Six: Define a formula to quantify the direct and indirect total losses, taking into account structural failure, personal injury, traffic closures and detours, and additional carbon emissions: In the formula, , , , , , They are monomer structures The costs incurred due to failure include repair costs, structural carbon emission costs, compensation for personal injury or death, detour time costs, detour length costs, and detour carbon emission costs. Cost per unit area of ​​the structure; and They are monomer structures The plane width and length; and These are the market carbon price and the structural carbon emissions per unit area, respectively. Monomer structure The average speed at a representative moment on the road in question; and The amounts are respectively for compensation for vehicle damage and personal injury / damage; Average number of occupants per vehicle; and The percentage of the population aged 60 and under in the local census results; and The time value of cars and trucks, respectively; and The driving cost per kilometer for small cars and trucks are respectively. and These are the carbon emissions per kilometer for small cars and trucks, respectively. Monomer structure The percentage of trucks on the road in question; , and They are respectively monomer structures The detour distance, number of detour days, and detour speed resulting from the failure; Step 7: Quantitatively assess the long-term annual total risk loss of a city's large-scale bridge and tunnel network. The formula for calculating the annual total risk loss of the bridge and tunnel network is as follows: In the formula, Monomer structure Loss quantification value without considering failure probability; , , , , , They are respectively monomer structures The costs incurred due to failure include repair costs, structural carbon emission costs, compensation for personal injury or death, detour time costs, detour length costs, and detour carbon emission costs. Monomer structure Quantification of risk loss considering failure probability; Monomer structure The probability of failure; This represents the total risk quantification value for the entire bridge and tunnel network. This represents the number of individual structures in the bridge-tunnel network.

2. The method for evaluating large-scale urban bridge and tunnel networks based on quantified total risk loss according to claim 1, characterized in that... In step one, the road network topology data includes road type, direction, length, number of lanes, and bridge and tunnel unit name, type, latitude and longitude; the bridge and tunnel network model is a network model with intersections as nodes, roads as undirected edges, and bridge and tunnel units as edge failure elements.

3. The method for evaluating large-scale urban bridge and tunnel networks based on quantified total risk loss according to claim 1, characterized in that... In step two, the method for simplifying the edges is as follows: (1) Delete roads that have no significant impact on the network topology performance and retain only highways, trunk roads, main roads, secondary roads and tertiary roads; (2) do not simplify highways, trunk roads and main roads, and delete secondary roads and tertiary roads if there are no bridges or tunnels on the edge, and retain them if there are bridges or tunnels on the edge; the method for simplifying the nodes is as follows: if the number of nodes in a relatively close range is sparse and clustered, then the nodes are clustered.

4. The method for evaluating large-scale urban bridge and tunnel networks based on quantified total risk loss according to claim 1, characterized in that... In step four, the formula for calculating the failure probability of a single structural unit is: In the formula, Monomer structure Reliability indicators; Monomer structure The test report score; Monomer structure The probability of failure; It is the standard normal distribution function.

5. The method for evaluating large-scale urban bridge and tunnel networks based on quantified total risk loss according to claim 1, characterized in that... In step five, the spatial non-homogeneous Markov chain is defined according to the local traffic management bureau's regulations on restrictions on freight vehicles. If there are relevant local regulations, the non-homogeneous Markov chain is defined according to the restricted area; if there are no relevant regulations, the non-homogeneous Markov chain degenerates into a homogeneous Markov chain.

6. The method for evaluating large-scale urban bridge and tunnel networks based on quantified total risk loss according to claim 1, characterized in that... In step five, the transition probability matrix of the Markov chain only considers adjacent rating degradation, and does not consider cross-level degradation or rating improvement due to maintenance, specifically expressed as follows: In the formula, The transition probability matrix; The status rating is The monolithic structure will be rated as [missing information] in the following year. The probability, , , , All unknown probabilities are fitted based on the failure probabilities calculated from the scoring data in the test report.

7. The method for evaluating large-scale urban bridge and tunnel networks based on quantified total risk loss according to claim 1, characterized in that... In step seven, the future... The formula for calculating the predicted score of a single-unit structure in a given year is: In the formula, Monomer structure Future No. Annual score forecast; structural monomer Current state vector; Let be the transition probability matrix.

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