Method for evaluating toughness of regional three-dimensional composite system

Abstract

The invention is suitable for the technical field of water resource management and evaluation, and provides a method for evaluating the toughness of a regional three-dimensional composite system, and the method comprises the steps: analyzing the current development situation of regional social economy and ecological environment, and constructing a regional composite system toughness evaluation index system from the three dimensions of environment, economy and society based on a toughness theory; performing standardization processing on the index system by using a maximum and minimum value method, and calculating an evaluation index weight by using an entropy weight method; constructing a toughness three-dimensional space vector model of the environment-economy-society composite system; and respectively calculating the toughness development index of each subsystem, the toughness development degree of the composite system, the toughness coordination degree and the toughness development index, and judging the toughness development levels of the subsystems and the composite system. In order to more comprehensively and accurately reflect the multi-dimensional characteristics and dynamic changes of the composite system, the invention provides a composite system toughness evaluation method with relatively accurate measurement and calculation, and provides targeted measures for improving the toughness of the regional composite system.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of water resource management and assessment, and in particular to a method for assessing the resilience of a regional three-dimensional composite system. Background Art

[0002] Over the past few decades, rapid global economic and social development has brought tremendous economic growth and improved living standards, but it has also placed significant pressure on the environment. Activities such as overgrazing, fossil fuel use, and deforestation have led to a range of environmental problems, including water pollution, ecological degradation, and loss of forest biodiversity. In recent years, global climate change, resulting in rising temperatures and frequent extreme weather events, has further exacerbated environmental issues, bringing unpredictable impacts on regional economic and social development. Due to differences in resilience, different regions have varying abilities to adapt to these impacts. Resilient regions have strong adaptability to disruptions and exhibit less pronounced ecological and environmental problems. Resilient regions, on the other hand, have weaker adaptability and experience more severe ecological and environmental problems.

[0003] The concept of resilience, originally derived from physics, refers to the dynamic process of a system's ability to resist, recover, and adapt to extreme risk shocks through the active adjustment of system elements, optimization of system structure, and shaping of the system environment. With the convergence of multiple disciplines, the concept of resilience has gradually expanded to fields such as ecology, education, psychology, and sociology. In recent years, it has garnered widespread attention and widespread application in urban sustainable development and urban planning research. Research on system resilience spans a wide range of fields, including economics, society, resources, the environment, and science and technology, encompassing aspects such as the resilience of economic development systems, water resources systems, urban systems, ecosystems, and social-ecological systems. Scholars initially employed qualitative methods to assess the resilience of complex systems. These methods involved designing a set of questions or indicators, quantifying them using a Likert scale (0–10) or a percentage scale (0–100), and incorporating expert opinion to quantify the results. Ultimately, a comprehensive resilience index was derived. To more objectively and clearly assess system resilience, quantitative assessment methods have been widely used. Currently, a series of resilience assessment models have been developed, including the resilience triangle model, the time-varying resilience model, simulation methods, coupling degree models, coupling coordination degree models, comprehensive index methods, entropy methods, entropy weight-TOPSIS methods, and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation methods. The three-dimensional space vector model is a generalization of the two-dimensional point, line, and surface vector models to three dimensions. It can present complex three-dimensional spatial data in an intuitive and understandable manner and has been widely applied in environmental management, civil engineering, urban landscape design, geological hazards, virtual reality, and system resilience. Research has shown that this method can comprehensively and accurately reflect the multidimensional characteristics and dynamic changes of complex systems when assessing their resilience, and by identifying the optimal development path, it can generate a resilience development index. Summary of the Invention

[0004] The present invention provides a method for evaluating the toughness of a regional three-dimensional composite system to solve the technical problems mentioned in the background technology.

[0005] A method for assessing the resilience of a regional three-dimensional composite system, the method comprising:

[0006] Analyze the current status of regional socio-economic and ecological environment development and, based on resilience theory, construct a regional complex system resilience evaluation index system from three dimensions: environment, economy, and society;

[0007] The maximum and minimum value method is used to standardize the index system, and the entropy weight method is used to calculate the weight of the evaluation index;

[0008] Construct a three-dimensional spatial vector model of the resilience of the "environment-economy-society" complex system;

[0009] The resilience development index of each subsystem, the resilience development degree of the composite system, the resilience coordination degree and the resilience development index are calculated respectively to judge the resilience development level of the subsystem and composite system.

[0010] Preferably, the step of analyzing the current status of regional socio-economic and ecological environmental development and constructing a regional composite system resilience evaluation index system from the three dimensions of environment, economy and society includes:

[0011] Resilient development has three phases: resistance, recovery, and adaptability. Resistance refers to the load on the water resource system caused by external and endogenous pressures before the disturbance. Recovery refers to the ability of the complex system to quickly recover to its initial state or even reach a higher level through self-adjustment, learning, and summarizing experience during the disturbance, that is, when the complex system is damaged. Adaptability refers to the ability of the complex system to absorb external interference and damage after the disturbance, and to continuously adapt to the influence of various uncertainties to maintain the safe operation of each subsystem.

[0012] Based on scholars' research on regional ecological resilience, water resource system resilience, and urban resilience, and combined with indicator sources, word frequency analysis, and expert consultation, a regional "environment-economy-society" complex system resilience evaluation index system was constructed. Complex system resilience comprises the resilience of the environmental subsystem, the resilience of the economic subsystem, and the resilience of the social subsystem. From the perspective of the composition of complex system resilience, the resilience of the environmental subsystem primarily refers to the resistance of the ecological environment to external disturbances, involving factors such as environmental pressure, environmental endowment, and environmental protection. The resilience of the economic subsystem primarily refers to the economic conditions required to manage and restore the disturbed environment, a form of resilience, involving factors such as economic strength, economic structure, and economic efficiency. The resilience of the social subsystem primarily refers to the transformation of the environment by human activities, the degree of resource utilization, and awareness of conservation. It is more about the ability to adapt to system changes, involving factors such as social development, quality of life, and social security.

[0013] Preferably, the method of standardizing the index system using the maximum and minimum value method and calculating the evaluation index weights using the entropy weight method includes the following steps:

[0014] For positive indicators, that is, the bigger the better type of indicators, the standardized formula is:

[0015]

[0016] For negative indicators, that is, the smaller the better type of indicators, the standardized formula is:

[0017]

[0018] in, is the normalized value of the original indicator; C ijis the original index value; C max and C min are the maximum and minimum values ​​of the original indicators respectively;

[0019] Then use the standardized data to construct the data relationship matrix R:

[0020]

[0021] Where: C is composed of standardized indicator data; m is the number of evaluation indicators; n is the number of evaluation years;

[0022] According to the indicator data relationship matrix C, the entropy value e of the i-th indicator is first calculated using the entropy weight method. i :

[0023]

[0024]

[0025] If f ij =0, then f ij lnf ij =0;

[0026] The weight w of each evaluation index i for:

[0027]

[0028] Preferably, a three-dimensional space vector model of the resilience of the "environment-economy-society" composite system is constructed, in which vectors OX, OY, and OZ represent the development trajectories of the resilience of the three subsystems of environment, economy, and society, respectively, forming a three-dimensional space. Vector OS represents the optimal development trajectory of the resilience of the composite system, and the development trajectory vector OP of the composite system resilience cannot completely coincide with it.

[0029] Preferably, respectively calculating the resilience development index of each subsystem, the resilience development degree of the composite system, the resilience coordination degree, and the resilience development index comprises the following steps:

[0030] Resilience development index of each subsystem:

[0031]

[0032] Where: X t 、Y t and Z t are the resilience development index of the environment, economy and society subsystems; C 1ij * 、C 2ij * and C 3ij *are the standardized indicator values ​​of resilience of the environmental, economic and social subsystems, respectively;

[0033] Composite system resilience development degree:

[0034]

[0035] Where: OP is the degree of development of composite system resilience;

[0036] Toughness coordination:

[0037] Resilience coordination refers to the degree of fit between the actual development trajectory of the resilience of a regional composite system and the optimal development trajectory. The deviation θ is defined as the resilience coordination of the composite system. The value of θ is negatively correlated with the resilience coordination. That is, the larger the θ value, the worse the coordination of the development of the three subsystems:

[0038]

[0039] Resilience Development Index:

[0040] The resilience development index truly reflects the resilience level of a regional complex system. The actual length along the optimal development trajectory is defined as the development capacity of the complex system's resilience. In the three-dimensional space vector model diagram, this is the length of the vector OP'. The vector OP' is positively correlated with the resilience level. The larger the OP' value, the better the resilience development level:

[0041] OP'=OP×cosθ.

[0042] Beneficial effects achieved by the present invention:

[0043] The present invention proposes a method for measuring the resilience of a three-dimensional regional composite system - a three-dimensional space vector model of resilience. This method can comprehensively and accurately reflect the multidimensional characteristics and dynamic changes of the composite system when evaluating the resilience of the composite system, and obtain the resilience development index by finding the optimal development path. It includes: analyzing the current status of regional social, economic and ecological environmental development; constructing a regional composite system resilience evaluation index system from the three dimensions of environment, economy and society based on resilience theory; standardizing the index system using the maximum and minimum value method, and calculating the evaluation index weights using the entropy weight method; constructing a three-dimensional space vector model of the resilience of the "environment-economy-society" composite system; calculating the resilience development index of each subsystem, the composite system resilience development degree, resilience coordination degree and resilience development index respectively; and judging the resilience development level of the subsystem and composite system.

[0044] This paper defines the resilience of the "environment-economy-society" complex system by considering the multiple attributes of regional complex systems, the close connections between the environmental, economic, and social subsystems, and the uncertainty of risks and disasters. To more comprehensively and accurately reflect the multidimensional characteristics and dynamic changes of complex systems, a relatively accurate composite system resilience assessment method is proposed, which provides targeted measures for improving regional composite system resilience. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0045] Figure 1 This is a schematic diagram of a method for evaluating the resilience of a regional three-dimensional composite system provided by an embodiment of the present invention.

[0046] Figure 2 The present invention provides a method for constructing a regional three-dimensional composite system resilience evaluation index system.

[0047] Figure 3 This is a space vector model for evaluating the resilience of a regional three-dimensional composite system provided by an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0048] The technical solution of the present invention is described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings.

[0049] See also Figures 1 to 3 , an embodiment of the present invention provides a method for evaluating the resilience of a regional three-dimensional composite system, the method comprising:

[0050] Analyze the current status of regional socio-economic and ecological environment development and, based on resilience theory, construct a regional complex system resilience evaluation index system from three dimensions: environment, economy, and society;

[0051] The maximum and minimum value method is used to standardize the index system, and the entropy weight method is used to calculate the weight of the evaluation index;

[0052] Construct a three-dimensional spatial vector model of the resilience of the "environment-economy-society" complex system;

[0053] The resilience development index of each subsystem, the resilience development degree of the composite system, the resilience coordination degree and the resilience development index are calculated respectively to judge the resilience development level of the subsystem and composite system.

[0054] In this embodiment, the steps of analyzing the current status of regional socio-economic and ecological development and constructing a regional composite system resilience evaluation index system from the three dimensions of environment, economy, and society include:

[0055] Resilient development has three phases: resistance, recovery, and adaptability. Resistance refers to the load on the water resource system caused by external and endogenous pressures before the disturbance. Recovery refers to the ability of the complex system to quickly recover to its initial state or even reach a higher level through self-adjustment, learning, and summarizing experience during the disturbance, that is, when the complex system is damaged. Adaptability refers to the ability of the complex system to absorb external interference and damage after the disturbance, and to continuously adapt to the influence of various uncertainties to maintain the safe operation of each subsystem.

[0056] Based on scholars' research on regional ecological resilience, water resource system resilience, and urban resilience, and combined with indicator sources, word frequency analysis, and expert consultation, a regional "environment-economy-society" complex system resilience evaluation index system was constructed. Complex system resilience comprises the resilience of the environmental subsystem, the resilience of the economic subsystem, and the resilience of the social subsystem. From the perspective of the composition of complex system resilience, the resilience of the environmental subsystem primarily refers to the resistance of the ecological environment to external disturbances, involving factors such as environmental pressure, environmental endowment, and environmental protection. The resilience of the economic subsystem primarily refers to the economic conditions required to manage and restore the disturbed environment, a form of resilience, involving factors such as economic strength, economic structure, and economic efficiency. The resilience of the social subsystem primarily refers to the transformation of the environment by human activities, the degree of resource utilization, and awareness of conservation. It is more about the ability to adapt to system changes, involving factors such as social development, quality of life, and social security.

[0057] In this paper, taking the upper reaches of the Yellow River as an example, data on the social economy and ecological environment in the upper reaches of the Yellow River from 2009 to 2022 were collected to construct an evaluation index system for the resilience of the composite system in the upper reaches of the Yellow River, as shown in Table 1:

[0058] Table 1 Evaluation index system of composite system resilience in the upper Yellow River region

[0059]

[0060]

[0061] In this embodiment, the standardization of the index system using the maximum-minimum method and the calculation of the evaluation index weight using the entropy weight method include the following steps:

[0062] For positive indicators, that is, the bigger the better type of indicators, the standardized formula is:

[0063]

[0064] For negative indicators, that is, the smaller the better type of indicators, the standardized formula is:

[0065]

[0066] in, is the normalized value of the original indicator; C ij is the original index value; C max and C min are the maximum and minimum values ​​of the original indicators respectively;

[0067] Then use the standardized data to construct the data relationship matrix R:

[0068]

[0069] Where: C is composed of standardized indicator data; m is the number of evaluation indicators; n is the number of evaluation years;

[0070] According to the indicator data relationship matrix C, the entropy value e of the i-th indicator is first calculated using the entropy weight method. i :

[0071]

[0072] If f ij =0, then f ij lnf ij =0;

[0073] The weight w of each evaluation index i for:

[0074]

[0075] In this embodiment, data of the composite system resilience evaluation index system from 2009 to 2022 is selected, and the collected data is substituted into the above formula to perform standardization processing on each index to obtain the weight of the index.

[0076] In this embodiment, starting from the three-dimensional composite system, a three-dimensional space vector model of the resilience of the "environment-economy-society" composite system in the upper reaches of the Yellow River is constructed ( Figure 3 ), vectors OX, OY, and OZ represent the development trajectories of the resilience of the three subsystems, namely the environment, economy, and society, respectively, forming a three-dimensional space. Vector OS represents the optimal development trajectory of the resilience of the composite system, and the development trajectory vector OP of the composite system resilience cannot completely coincide with it.

[0077] In this embodiment, based on the three-dimensional space vector model of resilience, respectively calculating the resilience development index of each subsystem, the resilience development degree of the composite system, the resilience coordination degree, and the resilience development index includes the following steps:

[0078] Resilience development index of each subsystem:

[0079]

[0080] Where: X t 、Y t and Z t are the resilience development index of the environment, economy and society subsystems; C 1ij * 、C 2ij * and C 3ij * are the standardized indicator values ​​of resilience of the environmental, economic and social subsystems, respectively;

[0081] Composite system resilience development degree:

[0082]

[0083] Where: OP is the degree of development of composite system resilience;

[0084] Toughness coordination:

[0085] The resilience coordination degree refers to the degree of fit between the actual development trajectory of the composite system resilience in the upper Yellow River region and the optimal development trajectory. The deviation θ is defined as the composite system resilience coordination degree. The value of θ is negatively correlated with the resilience coordination degree. That is, the larger the θ value, the worse the coordination degree of the development of the three subsystems:

[0086]

[0087] Resilience Development Index:

[0088] The Resilience Development Index truly reflects the resilience level of the composite system in the upper Yellow River region. The actual length along the optimal development trajectory is defined as the development capacity of the composite system's resilience. In the three-dimensional space vector model, this is the length of the vector OP'. The vector OP' is positively correlated with the resilience level; a larger OP' value indicates a better level of resilience development:

[0089] OP'=OP×cosθ.

[0090] In this embodiment, the resilience development index of the environmental subsystem in the upper Yellow River region is calculated as shown in Table 2:

[0091] Table 2 Resilience development index of environmental subsystem in the upper Yellow River region

[0092]

[0093] In this embodiment, the resilience development index of the economic subsystem in the upper Yellow River region is calculated as shown in Table 3:

[0094] Table 3 Resilience Development Index of Economic Subsystems in the Upper Yellow River Region

[0095]

[0096] In this embodiment, the resilience development index of the social subsystem in the upper Yellow River region is calculated as shown in Table 4:

[0097] Table 4 Resilience Development Index of Social Subsystems in the Upper Yellow River Region

[0098]

[0099]

[0100] In this embodiment, the composite system resilience development index of the upper Yellow River region is calculated as shown in Table 5:

[0101] Table 5 Composite system resilience development index in the upper Yellow River region

[0102]

[0103] The proposed method for assessing the resilience of a three-dimensional regional composite system can help decision-makers understand the current state of a region's composite system resilience. By combining this with a three-dimensional resilience space vector model, the method more comprehensively and accurately reflects the multidimensional characteristics and dynamic changes of the composite system. The method includes: analyzing the current state of regional socioeconomic and ecological development; constructing a regional composite system resilience evaluation index system from the environmental, economic, and social dimensions based on resilience theory and sustainable development theory; standardizing the index system using the maximum-minimum method and calculating the evaluation index weights using the entropy weight method; constructing a three-dimensional space vector model of the resilience of the "environment-economy-society" composite system; calculating the resilience development index of each subsystem, the composite system's resilience development degree, resilience coordination degree, and resilience development index; and assessing the resilience development level of the subsystems and composite system. This method addresses the multiple attributes of the regional composite system, considers the close connections between the environmental, economic, and social subsystems, and incorporates the uncertainty of risks and disasters to define the resilience of the "environment-economy-society" composite system. To more comprehensively and accurately reflect the multidimensional characteristics and dynamic changes of the composite system, a relatively accurate composite system resilience evaluation method is proposed, which provides targeted measures for improving the resilience of the regional composite system.

[0104] It should be noted that, in this document, the term "comprises" or any other variant thereof is intended to cover non-exclusive inclusion, so that a process, method, article, or apparatus that includes a series of elements includes not only those elements, but also includes other elements not explicitly listed, or also includes elements inherent to such process, method, article, or apparatus. In the absence of further limitations, an element defined by the phrase "comprises a ..." does not exclude the presence of other identical elements in the process, method, article, or apparatus that includes the element.

[0105] The above are only preferred embodiments of the present invention and are not intended to limit the patent scope of the present invention. Any equivalent structure or equivalent process transformation made using the contents of the present invention description and drawings, or directly or indirectly applied in other related technical fields, are also included in the patent protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for evaluating the resilience of a regional three-dimensional composite system, characterized in that: The method comprises: Analyze the current status of regional socio-economic and ecological environment development and, based on resilience theory, construct a regional complex system resilience evaluation index system from three dimensions: environment, economy, and society; The maximum and minimum value method is used to standardize the index system, and the entropy weight method is used to calculate the weight of the evaluation index; Construct a three-dimensional spatial vector model of the resilience of the "environment-economy-society" complex system; The resilience development index of each subsystem, the resilience development degree of the composite system, the resilience coordination degree and the resilience development index are calculated respectively to judge the resilience development level of the subsystem and composite system.

2. The method for evaluating the resilience of a regional three-dimensional composite system according to claim 1, characterized in that: The steps of analyzing the current status of regional socio-economic and ecological environmental development and constructing a regional complex system resilience evaluation index system from the three dimensions of environment, economy and society based on resilience theory include: Resilient development has three phases: resistance, recovery, and adaptability. Resistance refers to the load on the water resource system caused by external and endogenous pressures before the disturbance. Recovery refers to the ability of the complex system to quickly recover to its initial state through self-adjustment, learning, and summarizing experience during the disturbance, that is, when the complex system is damaged. Adaptability refers to the ability of the complex system to absorb external interference and damage after the disturbance, and to continuously adapt to the influence of various uncertainties to maintain the safe operation of each subsystem. A regional "environment-economy-society" complex system resilience evaluation index system is constructed. The components of complex system resilience include environmental subsystem resilience, economic subsystem resilience, and social subsystem resilience. From the perspective of the composition of complex system resilience, the resilience of the environmental subsystem refers to the resistance of the ecological environment to external interference, involving environmental pressure, environmental endowment, and environmental protection; the resilience of the economic subsystem refers to the economic conditions required to govern and restore the disturbed environment, that is, a kind of resilience, involving economic strength, economic structure, and economic efficiency; the resilience of the social subsystem refers to the transformation of the environment by human activities, the degree of resource utilization, and protection awareness, involving social construction, quality of life, and social security.

3. The method for evaluating the resilience of a regional three-dimensional composite system according to claim 1, characterized in that: The method of using the maximum and minimum value method to standardize the index system and using the entropy weight method to calculate the evaluation index weights includes the following steps: For positive indicators, that is, the bigger the better type of indicators, the standardized formula is: For negative indicators, that is, the smaller the better type of indicators, the standardized formula is: in, is the normalized value of the original indicator; C ij is the original index value; C max and C min are the maximum and minimum values ​​of the original indicators respectively; Then use the standardized data to construct the data relationship matrix R: Where: C is composed of standardized indicator data; m is the number of evaluation indicators; n is the number of evaluation years; According to the indicator data relationship matrix C, the entropy value e of the i-th indicator is first calculated using the entropy weight method. i : If f ij =0, then f ij lnf ij =0; The weight w of each evaluation index i for:

4. The method for evaluating the resilience of a regional three-dimensional composite system according to claim 1, characterized in that: A three-dimensional space vector model of the resilience of the "environment-economy-society" composite system is constructed. Vectors OX, OY, and OZ represent the development trajectories of the resilience of the three subsystems, namely the environment, economy, and society, respectively, forming a three-dimensional space. Vector OS represents the optimal development trajectory of the composite system's resilience, and the development trajectory vector OP of the composite system's resilience cannot completely coincide with it.

5. The method for evaluating the resilience of a regional three-dimensional composite system according to claim 1, characterized in that: The calculation of the resilience development index of each subsystem, the resilience development degree of the composite system, the resilience coordination degree, and the resilience development index includes the following steps: Resilience development index of each subsystem: Where: X t 、Y t and Z t are the resilience development index of the environment, economy and society subsystems; C 1ij * 、C 2ij * and C 3ij * are the standardized indicator values ​​of resilience of the environmental, economic and social subsystems, respectively; Composite system resilience development degree: Where: OP is the degree of development of composite system resilience; Toughness coordination: Resilience coordination refers to the degree of fit between the actual development trajectory of the resilience of a regional composite system and the optimal development trajectory. The deviation θ is defined as the resilience coordination of the composite system. The value of θ is negatively correlated with the resilience coordination. That is, the larger the θ value, the worse the coordination of the development of the three subsystems: Resilience Development Index: The resilience development index truly reflects the resilience level of a regional complex system. The actual length along the optimal development trajectory is defined as the development capacity of the complex system's resilience. In the three-dimensional space vector model diagram, this is the length of the vector OP'. The vector OP' is positively correlated with the resilience level. The larger the OP' value, the better the resilience development level: OP'=OP×cosθ.

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