Coastal sea level rise cause analysis method and system

Abstract

The invention provides a coastal sea level rise cause analysis method and system, and the method comprises the steps: constructing a current relative sea level model through employing a sea level fingerprint effect, a dynamic sea level and a node tide tidal change to form a relative sea level change; obtaining observation data of satellite height measurement, removing absolute sea level change contribution of glacier equilibrium adjustment and vertical displacement change caused by mass migration, and converting the adjusted satellite height measurement absolute sea level into a relative sea level; obtaining observation data of a tide station, and adjusting the observation data of the tide station by considering relative sea level change influenced by glacier equilibrium adjustment and a local land vertical displacement effect to obtain a calculated value of the relative sea level; and comprehensively comparing the relative sea level values obtained by the three modes, and performing latitude zone and regional sea level rise cause evaluation. According to the method, the local land vertical displacement change influence can be corrected by using modeling data, and the coastal sea level rise cause is explained by estimating the dynamic sea level and the sea level fingerprint effect.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention belongs to the field of sea level analysis, specifically relating to a method and system for analyzing the causes of sea level rise along the coast. Background Technology

[0002] The statements in this section are merely background information related to the present invention and do not necessarily constitute prior art.

[0003] Under the influence of global warming, sea levels are continuously rising. The main causes of sea level rise include changes in sea temperature and salinity, changes in sea circulation, and the increase in mass caused by the exchange of mass between land and sea. Both changes in temperature and salinity and the increase in seawater mass have unique spatial distribution characteristics in their contribution to sea level rise. Therefore, the rate of sea level rise in a region will be significantly different from the global average.

[0004] Sea-level rise in coastal areas directly threatens human survival and development. Understanding the causes of sea-level rise in coastal areas can help design effective climate change responses and reduce loss of life and property. Currently, there are two observation technologies that can determine long-term sea-level changes along the coast: tide gauge stations built along the coast and radar altimetry satellites. Tide gauge stations can effectively observe local sea-level rise, while with advancements in technology and data processing, the measurement accuracy of altimetry satellites in near-shore areas is gradually improving. Essentially, tide gauge stations measure relative sea-level changes, while altimetry satellites acquire absolute sea-level changes relative to the Earth's center; the difference between the two represents the vertical movement of the land.

[0005] In practical applications, tide gauge observations and satellite altimetry are subject to interference from various signals and cannot be directly compared with modeling signals. A series of corrections must be made before an evaluation can be made between the observations and the modeling.

[0006] As observational data, both tide gauge records and satellite altimetry data are affected by glacial isostatic adjustment. Specifically, the relative and absolute sea level changes caused by glacial isostatic adjustment need to be subtracted from both types of observational data to reflect current sea level rise. Furthermore, local vertical land displacement also has different effects on tide gauges and satellite altimetry, requiring careful handling. For satellite altimetry, after subtracting the absolute sea level change due to glacial isostatic adjustment, only the change in vertical land displacement caused by current mass migration needs to be subtracted. This change can be obtained by calculating the sea level fingerprint effect of current mass migration; however, this requires obtaining relatively accurate current land mass migration data. For tide gauges, the impact of vertical land displacement is more complex because changes in vertical land displacement may be accompanied by adjustments in absolute sea level (i.e., mean sea level or geoid).

[0007] In summary, existing solutions have the following three drawbacks in explaining the causes of sea-level rise along the coast: (1) The nonlinear changes in land vertical displacement have not been considered. Observational data show that the overall land vertical displacement has obvious non-steady-state characteristics, that is, the trend changes over time. The current research scheme only uses the linear trend of land vertical displacement observation. On the one hand, the observed linear trend only reflects the linear changes within a limited observation time window. On the other hand, the time span of sea level observation data is significantly inconsistent with the time span of vertical displacement observation, and related studies have not fully considered this difference.

[0008] (2) The influence of tidal wave (NT) has not been considered. NT has a significant impact on sea level rise, especially in mid- to high-latitude regions. Existing research schemes have not considered the contribution of NT to sea level rise.

[0009] (3) Lack of integration of satellite altimetry data. Relevant studies have mainly relied on tide gauge records when analyzing the causes of sea-level rise along the coast, without considering satellite altimetry data. Furthermore, the selection criteria for tide gauge data are quite stringent, resulting in a small number of tide gauge stations and greatly reducing the uniformity of local sampling. In addition, existing studies only analyze the causes of sea-level rise at tide gauge stations, which fails to estimate the spatial unevenness of the distribution of tide gauge stations. Summary of the Invention

[0010] To address the aforementioned problems, this invention proposes a method and system for analyzing the causes of sea-level rise along the coast. This invention can use modeling data to correct the influence of local land vertical displacement changes and explain the causes of sea-level rise along the coast by estimating dynamic sea level and sea-level fingerprint effects.

[0011] According to some embodiments, the present invention adopts the following technical solution: A method for analyzing the causes of sea-level rise along the coast includes the following steps: By utilizing the sea level fingerprint effect, dynamic sea level, and tidal variations of wave nodes to construct a current relative sea level model, a model of the current relative sea level is built. By acquiring satellite altimetry data, removing the contribution of absolute sea level changes from glacier isostatic adjustment and vertical displacement changes caused by mass migration, the adjusted absolute sea level from satellite altimetry is converted into relative sea level. The observation data from the tide gauge station were obtained. The relative sea level change was adjusted to take into account the influence of glacier isostatic adjustment and the local land vertical displacement effect, so as to obtain the calculated value of the relative sea level. By comprehensively comparing the relative sea level values ​​obtained from the three methods, an assessment of the causes of sea level rise in latitudinal zones and regions is conducted.

[0012] As an alternative implementation method, the process of constructing a current relative sea level model by utilizing the sea level fingerprint effect, dynamic sea level, and tidal variations of wave nodes to constitute relative sea level changes includes: The current relative sea level model is: ; In the formula, SL SLF Indicates sea level fingerprint, SL SDSL SL represents the dynamic sea level. NT It represents the tidal wave and the sea level.

[0013] As a further implementation, the dynamic sea level change is derived from the output of the ocean assimilation model SODA with a time resolution of monthly averages. The global average of SODA is replaced by an independent global average, or the heat capacity change is estimated using global ocean temperature data and replaced by the global average of SODA.

[0014] As a further implementation, the sea level fingerprint effect includes components of land mass migration from the Greenland ice sheet, Antarctic ice sheet, mountain glaciers, and terrestrial hydrology; the land mass migration into the sea forms the sea level fingerprint effect, which is realized by solving the sea level integral equation, and simultaneously outputs the sea level fingerprint describing the relative sea level change and the accompanying vertical displacement change of the land.

[0015] As an alternative implementation method, the process of converting the adjusted satellite altimeter absolute sea level into a relative sea level includes: selecting the satellite altimeter data grid point closest to the target tide gauge station as the virtual tide gauge station, and using the sea level change at this location as the coastal sea level change. ; In the formula, SL SA SL represents the sea level as observed by satellite altimetry. GIA ASL VLM represents the absolute sea-level change caused by isostatic adjustment of glaciers. SLF This indicates the vertical displacement change caused by current mass migration, i.e., the vertical displacement accompanied by the sea level fingerprint effect.

[0016] As an alternative implementation method, the process of adjusting the observation data from the tide gauge station to obtain the calculated value relative to sea level includes: The relative sea level estimate from the tide gauge station is: ; In the formula, SLTG represents the original tide gauge record, SLGIA RSL represents the relative sea-level change due to the influence of glacial isostatic adjustment, and VLMlocal represents the local vertical land displacement effect. This effect calculation considers the overall vertical land displacement, the vertical land displacement caused by glacial isostatic adjustment, and the change in vertical land displacement due to current mass migration. The calculation formula is as follows: ; In the formula, VLM represents the overall vertical displacement of the landmass. GIA VLM represents the vertical displacement of land due to isostatic adjustment by glaciers. SLF This indicates the vertical displacement of land caused by current mass migration.

[0017] As a further implementation method, the overall vertical displacement change is obtained by monitoring and acquiring time series or trend estimates through the global satellite navigation system, and the glacier isostatic adjustment is obtained by model prediction.

[0018] As an alternative implementation method, when assessing the causes of sea-level rise in latitudinal zones and regions, global latitudinal zones are divided at intervals of a set value. The average of the tide gauge stations within each latitudinal zone is taken as the sea-level time series of the latitudinal zone, and its rate value and uncertainty are estimated.

[0019] The process of comprehensively comparing the relative sea level values ​​obtained from the three methods to assess the causes of sea level rise in latitudinal zones and regions includes: using the constructed current relative sea level model to interpret the data that converts the absolute sea level measured by satellite altimetry to relative sea level and the relative sea level estimation results from tide gauge stations. The degree or ability of interpretation depends on the correlation between the synthetic sea level and the tide gauge or satellite altimetry measurements, as well as the magnitude of the difference between the latitudinal average values. If the correlation exceeds a threshold, it indicates that the synthetic sea level's ability to interpret the observed sea level meets the requirements; if the difference between the latitudinal average values ​​is less than a set value, it means that the global-scale interpretation ability meets the requirements.

[0020] A system for analyzing the causes of sea-level rise along the coast, comprising: The model building module is configured to utilize the sea level fingerprint effect, dynamic sea level, and tidal changes of wave nodes to construct a current relative sea level model; The first observation adjustment module is configured to acquire satellite altimetry observation data, remove the contribution of absolute sea level change caused by glacier isostatic adjustment and vertical displacement change caused by mass migration, and convert the adjusted satellite altimetry absolute sea level into relative sea level. The second observation adjustment module is configured to acquire the observation data of the tide gauge station, consider the relative sea level change due to the influence of glacier isostatic adjustment and the local land vertical displacement effect, adjust the observation data of the tide gauge station, and obtain the calculated value of the relative sea level. The comprehensive analysis module is configured to comprehensively compare the relative sea level values ​​obtained by the three methods to assess the causes of sea level rise in latitudinal zones and regions.

[0021] A computer-readable storage medium for storing computer instructions, which, when executed by a processor, perform the steps in the above method.

[0022] An electronic device includes a memory and a processor, as well as computer instructions stored in the memory and running on the processor, wherein the computer instructions, when executed by the processor, perform the steps in the method described above.

[0023] Compared with the prior art, the beneficial effects of the present invention are as follows: This invention achieves simultaneous and coordinated fusion of tide gauge records and satellite altimetry by accurately estimating the impact of vertical land displacement, transforming the observed sea level into the current relative sea level, and using modeling data to assess the causes of the rise of the current relative sea level in different latitudinal zones.

[0024] This invention allows for a flexible study timeframe based on the observation window of vertical displacement, enabling a more accurate estimation of the contribution of vertical displacement to the causes of local sea-level rise.

[0025] This invention estimates the contribution of NT to local sea level rise based on a prediction formula, and the relevant estimates are integrated into the modeling data in sync with the sea level fingerprint effect and dynamic sea level.

[0026] This invention reduces the impact of uneven distribution of spatial discrete sampling from tide gauge stations and satellite altimetry by analyzing the average value of latitudinal zones.

[0027] To make the above-mentioned objects, features and advantages of the present invention more apparent and understandable, preferred embodiments are described below in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings. Attached Figure Description

[0028] The accompanying drawings, which form part of this invention, are used to provide a further understanding of the invention. The illustrative embodiments of the invention and their descriptions are used to explain the invention and do not constitute an improper limitation of the invention.

[0029] Figure 1 This is a schematic diagram of a method for analyzing the causes of coastal sea-level rise in one embodiment. Figure 2 This is a schematic diagram of the sea level rise rate at a tide gauge station according to one embodiment, wherein (a) is the observation data of the tide gauge station; (b) is the satellite altimetry data; and (c) is the model synthesis data. Figure 3 This is an example of the sea level rise rate in coastal areas from 1993 to 2022, where 1 represents Europe, 2 represents Australia, 3 represents East Asia, 4 represents the inland islands of the Pacific Ocean, 5 represents the west coast of North America, and 6 represents the east coast of North America. Figure 4 The embodiment shows the rate of sea level rise in latitudinal zones over a certain period of time, where (A) is from 1993 to 2022 and (B) is from 2013 to 2022. Detailed Implementation

[0030] The present invention will be further described below with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiments.

[0031] It should be noted that the following detailed description is illustrative and intended to provide further explanation of the invention. Unless otherwise specified, all technical and scientific terms used herein have the same meaning as commonly understood by one of ordinary skill in the art to which this invention pertains.

[0032] It should be noted that the terminology used herein is for the purpose of describing particular embodiments only and is not intended to limit the scope of exemplary embodiments according to the invention. As used herein, the singular form is intended to include the plural form as well, unless the context clearly indicates otherwise. Furthermore, it should be understood that when the terms "comprising" and / or "including" are used in this specification, they indicate the presence of features, steps, operations, devices, components, and / or combinations thereof.

[0033] Where there is no conflict, the embodiments and features described in this application may be combined with each other.

[0034] Example 1 A method for analyzing the causes of sea-level rise along the coast, such as Figure 1 As shown, it includes the following steps: Step 1: Modeling the current relative sea level. This step includes three parts: sea level fingerprint effect, dynamic sea level, and NT tidal variation. The sum of these three constitutes the current relative sea level variation, which this invention refers to as the synthetic sea level, as shown in Formula 1: (1) In the formula, SLF represents the sea level fingerprint, SDSL represents the dynamic sea level, and NT represents the NT tidal sea level. Dynamic sea level changes are derived from the output of the ocean assimilation model SODA, with a time resolution of monthly average. Since the SODA model follows the principle of volume conservation, its global average is unreliable; therefore, this invention uses an independent global average to replace the SODA global average. The global average of the dynamic sea level reflects changes in global ocean thermal expansion; therefore, global ocean temperature data can be used to estimate heat capacity changes and replace the SODA global average. The sea level fingerprint effect comprises four main components of land mass migration: the Greenland ice sheet, the Antarctic ice sheet, mountain glaciers, and terrestrial hydrology. Changes in these components can be obtained by integrating model outputs and observational data. Land mass migration into the sea forms the sea level fingerprint effect, primarily causing vertical surface deformation and geoid changes. The two boundary surfaces define the relative sea level change, i.e., the sea level fingerprint. The sea level effect is achieved by solving the sea level integral equation, simultaneously outputting the sea level fingerprint describing the relative sea level change and the accompanying vertical land displacement change.

[0035] Step 2: Convert the satellite altimeter's absolute sea level to a relative sea level: (2) In the formula, SLSA represents the sea level observed by satellite altimetry, SLGIA ASL represents the absolute sea level change caused by glacial isostatic adjustment, and VLMSLF represents the vertical displacement change caused by current mass migration, i.e., the vertical displacement accompanied by the sea level fingerprint effect. In the implementation of the scheme, the satellite altimetry data grid point closest to the tide gauge station is selected as the virtual tide gauge station, and the sea level change at this location is taken as the coastal sea level change. Since satellite altimetry observations are affected by glacial isostatic adjustment, the contribution of GIA to the absolute sea level change needs to be deducted. After deducting this contribution, the satellite altimetry observations reflect the current absolute sea level change. Only the current land vertical displacement change needs to be deducted to obtain the current relative sea level change. Theoretically, the variable on the left side of Formula 2 is equivalent to the composite sea level on the left side of Formula 1, and the current land vertical displacement change can be completed simultaneously when calculating the sea level fingerprint effect.

[0036] Step 3: Estimation of the relative sea level at the tide gauge station: (3) In the formula, SLTG represents the original tide gauge record, SLGIA RSL represents the relative sea-level change due to the influence of glacial isostatic adjustment, and VLMlocal represents the local vertical land displacement effect. This effect calculation considers the overall vertical land displacement, the vertical land displacement caused by glacial isostatic adjustment, and the change in vertical land displacement due to current mass migration. The calculation formula is as follows: (4) In the formula, VLM represents the overall vertical displacement of the land, VLMGIA represents the vertical displacement of the land due to glacier isostatic adjustment, and VLMSLF represents the vertical displacement of the land caused by current mass migration. The overall vertical displacement change can be obtained from time series or trend estimates obtained by GNSS monitoring, while glacier isostatic adjustment can be predicted from the model. The vertical displacement caused by current mass migration has already been calculated.

[0037] Step 4: Assessment of the causes of sea-level rise in latitudinal zones and regions.

[0038] Specifically, this includes: using the current relative sea level model constructed in step one to interpret the data from step two, which converts the absolute sea level measured by satellite altimetry to a relative sea level, and the relative sea level estimation results from the tide gauge station in step three. The degree or ability of interpretation depends on the correlation between the synthetic sea level and the tide gauge station or satellite altimetry data. Figure 4 As shown, the correlation between the average values ​​of different latitudinal zones is significant. A high correlation indicates that the synthetic sea level interpretation is effective in reflecting observed sea levels; a smaller difference in the average values ​​of different latitudinal zones suggests better global-scale interpretation.

[0039] In this embodiment, global latitudinal zones are divided at 1° intervals. The average value of tide gauge stations within each latitudinal zone is taken as the sea level time series for that zone, and its rate value and uncertainty are estimated. The ability of the synthetic sea level (i.e., the model established in step one) to interpret tide gauge records and satellite altimetry observations is evaluated, and the closure residuals of each latitudinal zone are quantified. The differences and advantages of using latitudinal zone averages as global averages are evaluated, and the changes in mass sea level and dynamic sea level with latitude are explained. The contribution of vertical displacement in different latitudinal zones is evaluated. The nonlinear and unsteady changes of vertical displacement are explained. Different coastal zones are divided, and the causes of sea level rise in different coastal zones are evaluated.

[0040] This embodiment selects 367 tide gauge stations distributed globally, with densely distributed areas including Europe, Japan, Australia, and North America. Figure 2 The data shows three sea-level change rates from tide gauge stations between 1993 and 2022. A prominent feature of these rates is that the tide gauge stations exhibit a structure associated with high spatial variability, while the other two rates show smoother patterns. On average, the mean rate of these 367 tide gauges is 2.65 mm / yr with a standard deviation of 2.74 mm / yr. On the other hand, the mean rates derived from satellite altimetry and model synthesis are 3.33 mm / yr and 2.86 mm / yr, respectively, with standard deviations of 1.54 mm / yr and 1.26 mm / yr. The model synthesis rate includes a sea-level mass increase (SLF) rate of 1.71 mm / yr and a dynamic sea-level rise rate of 1.13 mm / yr, which is insufficient to explain the satellite altimetry mean rate. The mean rate may be biased considering the non-uniform distribution of tide gauge stations (as some tide gauge stations are clustered close together).

[0041] To reduce bias, this embodiment calculates a more robust median. The median has little effect on the satellite altimetry rate and the model synthesis rate, but changing the tide gauge rate to 2.92 mm / yr, as shown in Table 1, reduces the difference between these three relative sea-level rates. Meanwhile, the ocean mass increase rate increases to 2.00 mm / year, which better explains the satellite altimetry.

[0042] Table 1. Statistics on sea level rise and its causes at tide gauge stations, 1993-2022 (unit: mm / yr)

[0043] Although the medians are roughly consistent, the composite sea level data cannot fully explain the sea level observations at each observation point. The trend difference between the composite sea level and tide gauge data is -0.20 mm / yr, but the standard deviation is 2.65 mm / yr. The large standard deviation indicates that there are significant differences (both positive and negative) at all stations. The median difference is -0.21 mm / yr, the maximum is 12.64 mm / yr, and the minimum is -12.66 mm / yr. The significantly larger maximum and minimum values ​​(at least partially) are related to the GNSS vertical land motion trend. The difference between the composite sea level and satellite altimetry is smaller, with a standard deviation of 1.10 mm / yr. There is also a significant difference between tide gauge data and satellite altimetry (mean -0.67 mm / yr, standard deviation 2.37 mm / yr), which may be due to local wind effects or decreased satellite altimetry data quality in nearshore areas. Local sea level differences may be caused by a variety of factors, but the differences would be smaller at a regional scale.

[0044] This embodiment assesses mean sea level rise along coastlines in various regions, including the European coast, the Australian coast, the East Asian coast, the Pacific Island coast, and the west and east coasts of the United States. Except for the oceanic islands in the Pacific Ocean, all these coastlines are covered with a dense network of tide gauges. Results are shown in [link to results]. Figure 3 It is evident that satellite altimeters correlate with tide gauge heights, especially in the absence of local vertical land movement effects. Compared to sea level observations, sea level composites tend to underestimate regional sea level rise, with the exception of the European coast and the US West Coast. This is well explained on the European coast (112%) and the US East Coast (87%). The discrepancy between sea level observations and composite sea level assessments suggests potential regional biases. These regional biases stem either from irregular tide gauge locations (uneven distribution), measurement errors (both tide gauge and satellite altimeter measurements), or model limitations. To reduce biases at both local and regional scales, averaging rates across latitudinal zones (1° zones) is recommended.

[0045] Figure 4 This displays the sea-level change rates for each latitudinal zone from 49.5°S to 63.5°N. Note that data is missing for many latitudinal zones, particularly between 15°S and 15°N, due to the distribution of tide gauge stations. Overall, the rate curves are interconnected.

[0046] Specifically, after applying local vertical land motion correction (VLM) adjustments to the tide gauge data, the correlation coefficient between tide gauges and satellite altimeters was found to be 0.60, between tide gauges and integrated sea-level data was 0.34, and between satellite altimeters and integrated sea-level data was 0.71. Despite the weakest correlation, the latitudinal average rate of change of tide gauge data and the model's integrated data were more consistent, both lower than the average rate of change of satellite altimeters (3.62 mm / year), which is consistent with the global average sea-level rise measured by satellite altimeters (https: / / sealevel.colorado.edu / ). Regional analysis showed that excluding local VLM effects often increases the rate of change at tide gauges, such as... Figure 3 As shown in the figure. This trend also applies to the zonal zone; for tide gauge stations unaffected by local vertical land movement, the average zonal rate increases to 3.52 mm per year, which is more consistent with satellite altimetry data, but indicates that the sea-level composite analysis slightly underestimates sea-level rise. More interestingly, we found that in the absence of local vertical land movement, the correlation between tide gauge stations and the model composite increases to 0.42. This contradiction (increased correlation, but a widening average gap between tide gauge stations and the sea-level composite) may be attributed to the linear assumption of the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) rate.

[0047] In studying the causes of sea-level rise from 1993 to 2022, a GNSS linear rate was used. However, it's important to note that actual GNSS observations do not cover the entire timeframe; most GNSS observations only cover the most recent decade or even just a few years. Therefore, the nonlinear variations in land vertical motion can significantly impact the causal analysis at tide gauge stations. To assess the influence of GNSS vertical displacement, the sea-level rise causal analysis period was narrowed down to 2013-2022, assuming that the GNSS vertical displacement rate primarily reflects linear variations within this timeframe. The results show that the average latitude rate at tide gauge stations is 4.81 mm / yr, very close to the average latitude rate of 4.77 mm / yr from satellite altimeters. The average latitude rate of the composite sea-level rise is lower than both satellite altimeters and tide gauges, explaining approximately 85% of the coastal sea-level rise. The remaining residual of 0.7 mm / yr is not fully explained.

[0048] The variation of sea level rate with latitude indicates that the fluctuations are primarily caused by dynamic sea level changes, consistent with the spatial characteristics of sea level rise. Regarding seawater mass change, the sea level fingerprint shows relatively stable fluctuations with latitude; for example, in the mid-to-low latitude regions of the Southern and Northern Hemispheres, the sea level fingerprint rate fluctuates between 2 mm / yr and 2.5 mm / yr. However, the sea level fingerprint also exhibits a clear trend with latitude, especially in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, where the rate of seawater mass change is relatively low. This is because significant glacial melting in these regions results in a significant negative rate or a relatively low positive rate for the near-field sea level fingerprint, generally below the global average.

[0049] Example 2 A system for analyzing the causes of sea-level rise along the coast, comprising: The model building module is configured to utilize the sea level fingerprint effect, dynamic sea level, and tidal changes of wave nodes to construct a current relative sea level model; The first observation adjustment module is configured to acquire satellite altimetry observation data, remove the contribution of absolute sea level change caused by glacier isostatic adjustment and vertical displacement change caused by mass migration, and convert the adjusted satellite altimetry absolute sea level into relative sea level. The second observation adjustment module is configured to acquire the observation data of the tide gauge station, consider the relative sea level change due to the influence of glacier isostatic adjustment and the local land vertical displacement effect, adjust the observation data of the tide gauge station, and obtain the calculated value of the relative sea level. The comprehensive analysis module is configured to comprehensively compare the relative sea level values ​​obtained by the three methods to assess the causes of sea level rise in latitudinal zones and regions.

[0050] Those skilled in the art will understand that embodiments of the present invention can be provided as methods, systems, or computer program products. Therefore, the present invention can take the form of a completely hardware embodiment, a completely software embodiment, or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Furthermore, the present invention can take the form of one or more computer-usable storage media (including, but not limited to, disk storage, etc.) containing computer-usable program code. CD - ROM It takes the form of a computer program product implemented on (such as optical memory, etc.).

[0051] This invention is described with reference to flowchart illustrations and / or block diagrams of methods, apparatus (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the invention. It will be understood that each block of the flowchart illustrations and / or block diagrams, and combinations of blocks in the flowchart illustrations and / or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions can be provided to a processor of a general-purpose computer, special-purpose computer, embedded processor, or other programmable data processing apparatus to produce a machine, such that the instructions, which execute via the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing apparatus, generate instructions for implementing the flowchart illustrations and / or block diagrams. Figure 1 One or more processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A device that provides the functions specified in one or more boxes.

[0052] These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable storage medium that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing device to function in a particular manner, such that the instructions stored in the computer-readable storage medium produce an article of manufacture including instruction means, which are implemented in a process Figure 1 One or more processes and / or boxes Figure 1 The function specified in one or more boxes.

[0053] These computer program instructions may also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing equipment to cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer or other programmable equipment to produce a computer-implemented process, thereby providing instructions that execute on the computer or other programmable equipment for implementing the process. Figure 1 One or more processes and / or boxes Figure 1 The steps of the function specified in one or more boxes.

[0054] The above description is merely a preferred embodiment of the present invention and is not intended to limit the invention. Various modifications and variations can be made to the present invention by those skilled in the art. Any modifications, equivalent substitutions, improvements, etc., made by those skilled in the art without creative effort within the spirit and principles of the present invention should be included within the scope of protection of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for analyzing the causes of sea-level rise along the coast, characterized in that, Includes the following steps: By utilizing the sea level fingerprint effect, dynamic sea level, and tidal variations of wave nodes to construct a current relative sea level model, a model of the current relative sea level is built. By acquiring satellite altimetry data, removing the contribution of absolute sea level changes from glacier isostatic adjustment and vertical displacement changes caused by mass migration, the adjusted absolute sea level from satellite altimetry is converted into relative sea level. The observation data from the tide gauge station were obtained. The relative sea level change was adjusted to take into account the influence of glacier isostatic adjustment and the local land vertical displacement effect, so as to obtain the calculated value of the relative sea level. By comprehensively comparing the relative sea level values ​​obtained from the three methods, an assessment of the causes of sea level rise in latitudinal zones and regions is conducted.

2. The method for analyzing the causes of sea-level rise along the coast as described in claim 1, characterized in that, The process of constructing a current relative sea level model by utilizing the sea level fingerprint effect, dynamic sea level, and tidal variations to determine relative sea level changes includes: The current relative sea level model is as follows: ； In the formula, SL SLF Indicates sea level fingerprint, SL SDSL SL represents the dynamic sea level. NT It represents the tidal wave and the sea level.

3. The method for analyzing the causes of sea-level rise along the coast as described in claim 2, characterized in that, The dynamic sea level change is derived from the output of the ocean assimilation model SODA, with a time resolution of monthly averages. The global average of SODA is replaced by an independent global average, or the heat capacity change is estimated using global ocean temperature data and replaced by the global average of SODA.

4. The method for analyzing the causes of sea-level rise along the coast as described in claim 2, characterized in that, The sea level fingerprint effect includes components of land mass migration from the Greenland ice sheet, Antarctic ice sheet, mountain glaciers, and terrestrial hydrology. Land mass migration into the sea forms the sea level fingerprint effect, which is realized by solving the sea level integral equation. The sea level fingerprint describing the relative sea level change and the accompanying vertical displacement of land are output simultaneously.

5. The method for analyzing the causes of sea-level rise along the coast as described in claim 1, characterized in that, The process of converting the adjusted absolute sea level from satellite altimetry measurements to relative sea level includes: selecting the satellite altimetry data grid point closest to the target tide gauge station as the virtual tide gauge station, and using the sea level change at that location as the coastal sea level change. ； In the formula, SL SA SL represents the sea level as observed by satellite altimetry. GIA ASL VLM represents the absolute sea-level change caused by isostatic adjustment of glaciers. SLF This indicates the vertical displacement change caused by current mass migration, i.e., the vertical displacement accompanied by the sea level fingerprint effect.

6. The method for analyzing the causes of coastal sea-level rise as described in claim 1, characterized in that, The process of adjusting the observation data from the tide gauge station to obtain the calculated value relative to sea level includes: The relative sea level estimate from the tide gauge station is: ; In the formula, SLTG represents the original tide gauge record, SLGIA RSL represents the relative sea-level change due to the influence of glacial isostatic adjustment, and VLMlocal represents the local vertical land displacement effect. This effect calculation considers the overall vertical land displacement, the vertical land displacement caused by glacial isostatic adjustment, and the change in vertical land displacement due to current mass migration. The calculation formula is as follows: ； In the formula, VLM represents the overall vertical displacement of the landmass. GIA VLM represents the vertical displacement of land due to isostatic adjustment by glaciers. SLF This indicates the vertical displacement of land caused by current mass migration; The overall vertical displacement change is obtained by time series or trend estimation from global satellite navigation system monitoring, while the isostatic adjustment of glaciers is predicted by model.

7. The method for analyzing the causes of sea-level rise along the coast as described in claim 1, characterized in that, When assessing the causes of sea-level rise in latitudinal zones and regions, global latitudinal zones are divided at intervals of a set value. The average of the tide gauge stations within each latitudinal zone is taken as the sea-level time series for that latitudinal zone, and its rate value and uncertainty are estimated.

8. The method for analyzing the causes of sea-level rise along the coast as described in claim 1, characterized in that, The process of comprehensively comparing the relative sea level values ​​obtained from the three methods to assess the causes of sea level rise in latitudinal zones and regions includes: using the constructed current relative sea level model to interpret the data that converts the absolute sea level measured by satellite altimetry to relative sea level and the relative sea level estimation results from tide gauge stations. The degree or ability of interpretation depends on the correlation between the synthetic sea level and the tide gauge or satellite altimetry measurements, as well as the magnitude of the difference between the latitudinal average values. If the correlation exceeds a threshold, it indicates that the synthetic sea level's ability to interpret the observed sea level meets the requirements; if the difference between the latitudinal average values ​​is less than a set value, it means that the global-scale interpretation ability meets the requirements.

9. A system for analyzing the causes of sea-level rise along the coast, characterized in that, include: The model building module is configured to utilize the sea level fingerprint effect, dynamic sea level, and tidal changes of wave nodes to construct a current relative sea level model; The first observation adjustment module is configured to acquire satellite altimetry observation data, remove the contribution of absolute sea level change caused by glacier isostatic adjustment and vertical displacement change caused by mass migration, and convert the adjusted satellite altimetry absolute sea level into relative sea level. The second observation adjustment module is configured to acquire the observation data of the tide gauge station, consider the relative sea level change due to the influence of glacier isostatic adjustment and the local land vertical displacement effect, adjust the observation data of the tide gauge station, and obtain the calculated value of the relative sea level. The comprehensive analysis module is configured to comprehensively compare the relative sea level values ​​obtained by the three methods to assess the causes of sea level rise in latitudinal zones and regions.

10. An electronic device, characterized in that, It includes a memory and a processor, as well as computer instructions stored in the memory and running on the processor, which, when executed by the processor, perform the steps of the method according to any one of claims 1-8.

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