A method for long-distance emergency water supply integrating risk assessment and multi-reservoir coordination

Abstract

This invention relates to a long-distance water conveyance emergency water supply method integrating risk assessment and multi-reservoir coordination. It includes: obtaining the comprehensive risk assessment level of the project and the water supply core assessment level of the target water source based on a comprehensive risk assessment of the long-distance water conveyance project and a water supply core assessment level of the target water source; calculating the emergency water supply guarantee demand index and determining the emergency water supply guarantee demand level accordingly; quantifying the emergency water supply demand using planned water allocation, emergency water supply duration, and discount coefficients; constructing the emergency water supply capacity index and emergency water supply capacity level of reservoirs along the route; screening emergency water sources and determining the emergency water supply volume; dividing the emergency water supply guarantee zones based on connectivity conditions; forming an emergency water supply scheduling and response process; and conducting an evaluation of the emergency water supply guarantee effect. This invention connects the project end, demand end, and capacity end, reducing water supply losses and economic losses through multi-reservoir coordination, and improving emergency water supply guarantee capacity.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention belongs to the field of water conservancy project management technology, specifically relating to a long-distance emergency water supply method that integrates risk assessment and multi-reservoir coordination. Background Technology

[0002] Long-distance water conveyance projects involve long water conveyance routes that traverse numerous geologically challenging sections, cross many rivers, and pass through densely populated, industrial, and mining areas with numerous economically developed regions. They also include a large number of structures intersecting with the main canal. During the operation of the main canal, unforeseen accidents in geologically challenging sections, near intersecting structures, or outside the water conveyance system itself may pose a threat to the safe operation of the project. Furthermore, with the socio-economic development of the surrounding areas, human activities such as river channel improvement, development, and sand mining, as well as natural changes in riverbed erosion and sedimentation, may adversely affect the safe operation of the water conveyance project, thus exposing it to various risks.

[0003] Existing technologies suffer from problems such as single-point dependence on emergency support, disconnect between risk assessment systems and emergency water supply systems, difficulty in quantifying emergency support needs, and insufficient coordination or ineffective scheduling of multi-source or cross-regional emergency dispatch capabilities under sudden accidents. There is currently no method that comprehensively considers the engineering, demand, and capacity sides, and coordinates the water conveyance capacity of long-distance water conveyance projects and the water supply capacity of numerous reservoirs along the route, to study emergency water supply security when long-distance water conveyance projects face water supply risks. Summary of the Invention

[0004] The purpose of this invention is to address the shortcomings of the aforementioned background technology and provide a long-distance emergency water supply method that integrates risk assessment and multi-reservoir coordination.

[0005] The technical solution adopted in this invention is: a long-distance emergency water supply method integrating risk assessment and multi-reservoir coordination, comprising the following steps:

[0006] Step 1: Conduct a comprehensive risk assessment of the long-distance water conveyance project to obtain the comprehensive risk level of each assessment unit, which will serve as the input for the project.

[0007] Step 2: Conduct a water supply core assessment of the water supply targets at the water distribution point / sluice gate, obtain the water supply core assessment level of the water supply targets, and use it as input for the demand side;

[0008] Step 3: Map the comprehensive risk level to the corresponding water supply object according to the location of the water supply object to form a comprehensive risk assessment level. Based on the comprehensive risk assessment level and the water supply core assessment level of the water supply object, calculate the emergency water supply guarantee demand index and classify the emergency water supply guarantee demand level.

[0009] Step 4: Based on the emergency water supply guarantee demand level, determine the water supply targets included in the water supply security guarantee scope, and quantify the emergency water supply demand of each water supply target based on the planned water allocation volume, emergency water supply duration and the discount coefficient corresponding to the emergency water supply guarantee demand level.

[0010] Step 5: Construct an assessment of the emergency water supply capacity of reservoirs along the route, calculate the emergency water supply capacity index of reservoirs along the route, and classify the emergency water supply capacity levels;

[0011] Step 6: Select emergency water supply sources based on the emergency water supply capacity index of reservoirs along the route, quantify the emergency water supply volume of each emergency water supply source, prioritize the supply of domestic and industrial water, and reduce the original irrigation water supply tasks.

[0012] Step 7: Based on the distribution and connectivity of water conveyance projects, water supply targets, and reservoirs along the route, and taking the emergency water supply guarantee demand level and emergency water supply demand as the demand-side basis, and the emergency water supply source and its emergency water supply volume as the supply-side basis, divide the emergency water supply guarantee zones; ensure that the sum of the emergency water supply volume of the emergency water supply source within each emergency water supply guarantee zone during the emergency water supply period is not less than the sum of the emergency water supply demand of the water supply targets within the emergency water supply zone during the emergency water supply period, and introduce the emergency water supply source elasticity factor and the emergency water supply guarantee zone elasticity factor;

[0013] Step 8: Determine the method of activating the emergency water supply source based on the different situations where the accident point is located at the head section of the water conveyance project, between two emergency water supply guarantee zones, or within a certain emergency water supply guarantee zone. Under the operational principles of not affecting the safe operation of the water conveyance project and the flood control safety of the reservoir, and prioritizing the water needs of urban residents, form an emergency water supply scheduling and response process.

[0014] Step 9: Conduct emergency water supply guarantee effect evaluations under the conditions of not implementing multi-reservoir linkage with reservoirs along the route and long-distance water conveyance projects, and under the conditions of implementing multi-reservoir linkage. Compare water supply loss, economic loss and risk level as the basis for parameter closed-loop optimization.

[0015] Preferably, step 1 includes: dividing the assessment units by using the control gates along the line as nodes; calculating the risk values ​​of engineering risk, flood risk, and scheduling risk for each assessment unit; weighting and integrating the risk values ​​according to weighting coefficients to obtain a comprehensive risk value, wherein the sum of the weighting coefficients is 1, and the comprehensive risk value is determined through probability analysis, set operation, or expert comprehensive evaluation; and classifying each assessment unit into comprehensive risk levels based on the comprehensive risk value: Level 1, Level 2, Level 3, and Level 4, where Level 1 is permissible risk, Level 2 is general risk, Level 3 is significant risk, and Level 4 is major risk.

[0016] More preferably, step 2 includes: taking the water supply object of the water distribution point / sluice gate as the basic unit, selecting three water receiving characteristic dimensions: water allocation volume, administrative type, and water source conditions, and determining the level value of each water receiving characteristic dimension according to the preset 4-level evaluation standard; using a weighted method to weight and integrate the level values ​​of the three water receiving characteristic dimensions to obtain the water supply object's water supply core index, wherein the sum of the weight coefficients is 1, and is determined through probability analysis, set operation, or expert comprehensive evaluation; when multiple administrative types are involved, the highest level is taken, and when multiple water supply plants are involved, the largest level is taken; and according to the water supply object's water supply core index, the water supply object's water supply core evaluation level is divided into: level 4, level 3, level 2, and level 1.

[0017] Preferably, step 3 includes: reading the station number of each water supply object to locate its assessment unit; directly assigning the comprehensive risk level of the assessment unit to the water supply object to obtain the comprehensive risk assessment level of the water supply object; calculating the emergency water supply security demand index using a weighted method based on the comprehensive risk assessment level and the water supply core assessment level of the water supply object, wherein the sum of the comprehensive risk weight coefficient and the water supply core weight coefficient of the water supply object is 1, and is determined through probability analysis, set operation or expert comprehensive evaluation; and classifying the emergency water supply security demand level according to the emergency water supply security demand index: Level 4, Level 3, Level 2, and Level 1.

[0018] More preferably, step 4 includes: determining the water supply targets included in the water supply security guarantee scope based on the emergency water supply guarantee demand level; and quantifying the emergency water supply demand of each water supply target according to the following formula:

[0019] ;

[0020] In the formula: For the first Emergency water supply needs of individual water recipients; For the first Discount coefficient for each water supply recipient; For long-distance water conveyance projects to the first The planned water allocation for each water supply recipient; For emergency water supply duration.

[0021] More preferably, step 5 includes: selecting the beneficial storage capacity, water quality level, and distance from the water conveyance project of reservoirs along the route as emergency water supply capacity indicators, and formulating corresponding level evaluation standards; using a weighted method to perform weighted integration of the emergency water supply capacity indicators, calculating the emergency water supply capacity index of reservoirs along the route, wherein the sum of the weight coefficients is 1, and is determined through probability analysis, set operation, or expert comprehensive evaluation; and classifying the emergency water supply capacity levels according to the emergency water supply capacity index of reservoirs along the route: Level 5, Level 4, Level 3, Level 2, and Level 1, wherein Level 5 corresponds to an index value of 4, Level 4 corresponds to an index value of 3-3.9, Level 3 corresponds to an index value of 2-2.9, Level 2 corresponds to an index value of 1-1.9, and Level 1 corresponds to an index value of 0.

[0022] Preferably, step 6 includes: screening emergency water supply sources based on the emergency water supply capacity index of reservoirs along the route; including reservoirs with an emergency water supply capacity index greater than or equal to 3 in the emergency water supply guarantee system, and excluding those with an index less than 3; and quantifying the emergency water supply volume of each emergency water supply source according to the following formula:

[0023] ;

[0024] In the formula: For the first Emergency water supply from reservoirs along the route; For the first The average water storage of reservoirs along the route over the past 10 years; For the first Dead storage capacity of reservoirs along the route; For the first The water supply within the water supply range of each reservoir along the route.

[0025] In a more preferred embodiment, step 7 includes: taking into account both the emergency water supply guarantee demand level and economic efficiency, and considering the distribution and connectivity of water conveyance projects, water supply targets, and reservoirs along the route, dividing emergency water supply guarantee zones based on the emergency water supply guarantee demand level and emergency water supply demand as the demand-side basis, and based on the emergency water supply source and its emergency water supply volume as the supply-side basis; and following the principles of:

[0026] (1) Demand balance: The layout is based on the emergency water supply guarantee demand level of the water supply objects, so that the high-level demand in each emergency water supply guarantee zone is not concentrated and is relatively evenly distributed in the whole.

[0027] (2) Supply and demand verification: Ensure that the sum of the emergency water supply volume of the emergency water source in each emergency water supply guarantee zone during the emergency water supply period is not less than the sum of the emergency water supply demand of the water supply objects in the emergency water supply guarantee zone during the emergency water supply period;

[0028] (3) Flexible configuration: Introduce the emergency water supply elasticity factor for emergency water supply and the emergency water supply zone elasticity factor for emergency water supply zone to adapt to the flexible changes in water supply capacity and zone boundaries caused by emergencies.

[0029] (4) Appropriate scale: The emergency water supply guarantee zone should not be too large or too small, so as to ensure the safety of water supply within the zone when the emergency water source fails, and at the same time avoid the economic and unreasonable layout of the emergency water source.

[0030] More preferably, step 8 includes: determining the method for activating the emergency water supply based on different scenarios, such as the accident point being located at the head section of the water conveyance project, between two emergency water supply zones, or within a single emergency water supply zone.

[0031] (1) When the accident point is located at the head section of the water conveyance project and causes the water conveyance project to stop, all emergency water supply sources shall be activated to supply water to the emergency water supply guarantee zones respectively, and cross-regional emergency water supply shall be carried out when conditions permit.

[0032] (2) When the accident point is located between two emergency water supply guarantee zones, the water supply from the water conveyance project above the accident point will not be affected, the emergency water supply source above the accident point will not be activated, and each emergency water supply source below the accident point will be activated to supply water to its respective emergency water supply guarantee zone.

[0033] (3) When the accident point is located in a certain section of an emergency water supply guarantee zone, the water supply upstream of the accident point is unaffected by the water conveyance project, and each emergency water supply guarantee zone downstream of the accident point activates its emergency water supply source for emergency water supply.

[0034] Under the operating principles of not affecting the safe operation of the water conveyance project and the flood control safety of the reservoir, prioritizing the water needs of urban domestic life, then meeting the needs within the emergency water supply guarantee zone, then supplying water to the original agricultural users, prioritizing the needs of high-level guarantee, merging the emergency water supply guarantee zone into the upstream emergency water supply guarantee zone when the emergency water source fails, and prioritizing water supply within the emergency water supply guarantee zone and providing cross-regional emergency water supply when there is surplus water, an emergency water supply scheduling and response process is formed. The emergency water supply scheduling and response process takes the emergency water supply guarantee zone and its emergency water supply guarantee zone elasticity factor determined in step 7 and the emergency water source and its emergency water supply volume determined in step 6 as inputs.

[0035] Preferably, step 9 includes: calculating water supply loss and economic loss under the same accident scenario and the same emergency water supply duration, with and without multi-reservoir linkage; determining the risk level based on the comprehensive risk level classification standard determined in step 1; comparing the water supply loss, economic loss, and risk level under the two scenarios to form an evaluation result of the emergency water supply guarantee effect; and using the evaluation result as the basis for parameter closed-loop optimization to adjust the values ​​of the comprehensive risk weight coefficient and the water supply core weight coefficient of the water supply object in step 3, the discount coefficient in step 4, and the elasticity factor of the emergency water source guarantee and the elasticity factor of the emergency water supply guarantee zone in step 7.

[0036] This invention comprehensively integrates the risk assessment results of long-distance water conveyance projects with the emergency water supply capacity of multiple regulating reservoirs along the water conveyance project. It is of great significance for reducing the impact on water supply, economic losses and social risks caused by partial interruption of water supply in the main canal due to risk events in some sections of long-distance water conveyance projects.

[0037] Compared with the prior art, the specific benefits of the present invention are as follows:

[0038] 1. This invention establishes an integrated assessment chain connecting the engineering end, demand end, and capacity end. It maps the comprehensive risk level obtained from the "Comprehensive Risk Assessment of Long-Distance Water Transmission Projects" to the comprehensive risk assessment level at the engineering end. This, together with the water supply coreness assessment level obtained from the "Water Supply Coreness Assessment of Water Supply Targets at Diversion Points / Sluice Gates," forms an emergency water supply guarantee demand index and an emergency water supply guarantee demand level. This achieves a quantitative connection between risk and demand, providing a unified standard for subsequent quantification and scheduling.

[0039] 2. This invention establishes a demand-side computational mechanism with clear objectives and priorities. It calculates emergency water supply demand using planned water allocation, emergency water supply duration, and discount coefficients corresponding to the emergency water supply guarantee demand level. This ensures that the demand of each water supply recipient is comparable and verifiable, and allows for tiered responses.

[0040] 3. This invention establishes a unified evaluation and grading standard for capacity assessment. By assessing the emergency water supply capacity of reservoirs along the route, the emergency water supply capacity index of the reservoirs is calculated and the emergency water supply capacity levels are classified (Level 5, Level 4, Level 3, Level 2, Level 1), providing an objective basis for selecting the best emergency water source, making the strength and importance of capacity immediately apparent.

[0041] 4. This invention has clear supply-side constraints and balances effectiveness and economy. Based on the threshold rule that "reservoirs along the route with an emergency water supply capacity index greater than or equal to 3 are included in the emergency water supply guarantee system", the emergency water supply volume is quantified (considering the average water storage volume of the past 10 years, dead storage capacity, and water supply volume within its own water supply range), and follows the principle of "prioritizing the guarantee of domestic and industrial water supply and reducing the original irrigation water supply tasks", ensuring that the emergency water supply is both effective and economical.

[0042] 5. This invention is based on spatial resilience enhancement. Emergency water supply guarantee zones are defined, constrained by the requirement that "the emergency water supply volume within the zone meets the emergency water supply demand within a set timeframe." Furthermore, an emergency water source elasticity factor and an emergency water supply guarantee zone elasticity factor are introduced, allowing for flexible adjustments based on changes in water source capacity and boundaries caused by unforeseen events, significantly improving the risk resistance capability at the zone level.

[0043] 6. The scheduling process of this invention can be executed directly, and cross-regional emergency coordination is smooth. Under the condition of clearly defined accident points (head section of water conveyance project, between zones, or within zones), the method of activating emergency water supply is determined, and under the operating principles of "not affecting the safe operation of water conveyance project and reservoir flood control safety, prioritizing urban domestic water needs, prioritizing high-level guarantee needs, prioritizing water supply within zones and carrying out cross-regional emergency water supply when there is surplus water," an emergency water supply scheduling and response process is formed, which can be quickly implemented.

[0044] 7. The effects of this invention are measurable, and the parameters can be optimized in a closed loop. By evaluating the effectiveness of emergency water supply, the water supply loss, economic loss, and risk level are compared under the same accident scenario and the same set duration, with and without multi-reservoir linkage. This provides a basis for subsequent parameter adjustments based on the evaluation results, thereby continuously improving the effectiveness of the emergency water supply.

[0045] 8. The invention offers significant overall benefits. The method is highly operable and systematic, and can comprehensively integrate the risk assessment results of long-distance water conveyance projects with the emergency water supply capacity of multiple regulating reservoirs along the route. When water supply is partially interrupted in long-distance water conveyance projects, it helps to reduce water supply losses and economic losses, lower the risk level, and ensure that the priority of meeting urban domestic water needs and high-level demand objectives is met. Attached Figure Description

[0046] Figure 1 This is a flowchart illustrating the long-distance emergency water supply method integrating risk assessment and multi-reservoir coordination according to the present invention.

[0047] Figure 2 This is a schematic diagram of the emergency water supply and zoning layout when an accident occurs at the head section of the main canal according to Embodiment 1 of the present invention;

[0048] Figure 3A schematic diagram of the emergency water supply and zone layout when an accident occurs between two emergency water supply zones, according to Embodiment 1 of the present invention;

[0049] Figure 4 Embodiment 1 of the present invention is a schematic diagram of the emergency water supply and zone layout where the accident occurred in a certain section of the emergency water supply zone. Detailed Implementation

[0050] The specific embodiments of the present invention will be further described below with reference to the accompanying drawings. It should be noted that these descriptions are for the purpose of aiding understanding the present invention, but do not constitute a limitation thereof. Furthermore, the technical features involved in the various embodiments of the present invention described below can be combined with each other as long as they do not conflict with each other.

[0051] like Figure 1 As shown, this invention provides a long-distance emergency water supply method integrating risk assessment and multi-reservoir coordination, comprising the following steps:

[0052] (1) Comprehensive risk assessment of long-distance water conveyance projects

[0053] Because long-distance water conveyance projects involve long water conveyance routes, numerous sections with unfavorable geological conditions, cross many rivers and economically developed areas, and include a large number of diverse structures intersecting with the main canal, unforeseen accidents may occur during the operation of the main canal in sections with unfavorable geological conditions, near intersecting structures, or outside the main canal, potentially threatening the safe operation of the main canal.

[0054] ① Taking the control gates along the long-distance water conveyance project as nodes, divide the area into sections. One risk assessment unit;

[0055] ② Considering the characteristics of each assessment unit in the long-distance water conveyance project, and focusing on engineering risk, flood risk, and scheduling risk, risk assessments were conducted for these three types of risks, with risk values ​​as follows: , , ;

[0056] ③Weigh and integrate various risks to obtain the comprehensive risk value of each assessment unit of the long-distance water conveyance project.

[0057] (1)

[0058] In the formula: For the first The overall risk value of each assessment unit; , , The first The values ​​of engineering risk, flood risk, and scheduling risk for each assessment unit; , , These are the integrated weighting coefficients for engineering risk, flood risk, and scheduling risk, respectively. + + It is determined through probability analysis, set operations, or comprehensive expert evaluation.

[0059] ④ Develop comprehensive risk levels for each assessment unit of long-distance water conveyance projects. Whether it is a single type of risk such as engineering risk, flood risk, or scheduling risk, or a comprehensive risk, they are all divided into four levels according to the magnitude of the risk value: Level 1 (tolerable risk), Level 2 (general risk), Level 3 (significant risk), and Level 4 (major risk). See Table 1.

[0060] Table 1 Risk Levels and Risk Values

[0061]

[0062] (2) Assessment of the core water supply of long-distance water conveyance projects

[0063] ① Due to the wide water supply range of long-distance water transfer projects, the situation of each water supply recipient may be different. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct a characteristic assessment of the water supply coreness of each water supply recipient. Taking the water supply recipients at the water distribution points / sluice gates of long-distance water transfer projects as the basic units, the projects are divided into: Each water supply recipient.

[0064] ② Based on the characteristics of each water recipient, the main water-receiving characteristic dimensions that determine the importance of their water supply are selected, including water allocation volume, administrative type, and water source conditions. Four-level evaluation standards are formulated for each of these three water-receiving characteristic dimensions, and the level classification for each dimension is shown in Tables 2 to 4.

[0065] Table 2. Water Allocation Classification Standards

[0066]

[0067] Table 3 Administrative Type Classification Standards

[0068]

[0069] Table 4 Classification Standards for Water Source Conditions of Water Supply Targets

[0070]

[0071] ③ Integrate the features of the three water-receiving dimensions to calculate the first... Core Index of Water Supply Targets at Each Water Diversion Point .

[0072] (2)

[0073] In the formula: For the first The core index of the water supply targets at each water distribution point; Represents the level of water allocation; This refers to the administrative type level; when multiple administrative types are involved, the highest level is used. The water source condition level is used for the water supply target; when multiple water supply plants are involved, the highest level is taken. To assign weights to the water quantity feature dimensions; The weights for the administrative type feature dimension; Weighting of the water source condition-specific dimension for water supply recipients; + + Each weight is determined through probability analysis, set operations, or comprehensive expert evaluation.

[0074] ④ Establish the core water supply level for water supply targets. Based on the core water supply index of the water-supply recipients, they are divided into four levels: Level 4 (very high) with an index of 4; Level 3 (relatively high) with an index of 3–3.9; Level 2 (moderate) with an index of 2–2.9; and Level 1 (low) with an index of 1–1.9. The higher the index value, the higher the level and the higher the core water supply for the water-supply recipients.

[0075] Table 5 Coreness Standard Levels of Water Supply Targets

[0076]

[0077] (3) Emergency water supply guarantee demand level assessment

[0078] ① The overall risk of the project is Characteristic mapping of water supply needs for each water recipient. Long-distance water conveyance projects through... Each control gate is divided into A segment, possessing linear characteristics, and through The water inlets / sluice gates are divided into: Each water supply object has point characteristics. Through Each segment and The location relationship of each water supply object, the first Comprehensive risk level of the section project Mapped to the relevant water supply objects, that is:

[0079] (3)

[0080] In the formula: For the first Comprehensive risk level of the project section For the first mapping The comprehensive risk level of the project for each water supply target For the first The station number of the water supply recipient. , The first , The station number of each control gate. Representing the The water supply target is located at the first Upstream of the control gate, the first Downstream of the control gate.

[0081] ② Calculate the emergency water supply guarantee demand level for each water supply target. Based on the comprehensive risk assessment results of the engineering section and the demand-side water supply core evaluation results for each water supply target, the emergency water supply guarantee demand index for each water supply target is calculated using the weighted method. .

[0082] (4)

[0083] In the formula: The emergency water supply guarantee demand index for water supply recipients; These are the comprehensive risk weighting coefficient for the engineering side and the core water supply weighting coefficient for the demand side. The weighting coefficients are determined through probability analysis, set operations, or comprehensive expert evaluation. The overall risk assessment level for the engineering side; Assess the core water supply level for the demand side.

[0084] ③ Determine the emergency water supply demand level The response levels are set at four levels: Level 4 (very high demand) with an index of 4; Level 3 (relatively high demand) with an index of 3–3.9; Level 2 (moderate demand) with an index of 2–2.9; and Level 1 (low demand) with an index of 1–1.9. The higher the level, the greater the emergency water supply demand of the target water source, and the more important it is for long-distance water transmission projects, making it a priority target for ensuring water supply in emergency situations.

[0085] Table 6 Classification of Emergency Water Supply Demand Levels for Water Supply Targets

[0086]

[0087] (4) Quantitative analysis of emergency water supply demand

[0088] Based on the emergency water supply risk level of each water supply recipient, the water supply recipients included in the water supply security guarantee scope are determined, and the emergency water supply demand of each water supply recipient is quantified according to the planned water allocation, so as to clarify the emergency water supply target during the sudden water outage of long-distance water transmission projects. The emergency water supply demand is calculated according to formula (5):

[0089] (5)

[0090] In the formula: For the first Emergency water supply needs of individual water recipients; For the first The discount factor for each water supply object is calculated according to formula (6); For long-distance water conveyance projects to the first The planned water allocation for each water supply recipient; For emergency water supply duration.

[0091] (6)

[0092] (5) Assessment of the emergency water supply capacity of reservoirs along the long-distance water conveyance project

[0093] To ensure water supply security in the event of a partial interruption due to a sudden accident in a long-distance water conveyance project, emergency water sources along the project route can be connected to the project in one or two directions. Emergency water supply can then be provided to the branch points / sluice gates via the long-distance water conveyance project. By scheduling the water conveyance project, activating its emergency water supply source, and coordinating with local water sources, the water supply security of the downstream water-receiving area can be jointly guaranteed. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the emergency water supply capacity index of reservoirs along the long-distance water conveyance project route.

[0094] ① Based on the requirements and characteristics of emergency water supply, the main indicators for assessing the emergency water supply capacity of reservoirs along the route were selected, including the beneficial storage capacity of reservoirs along the route, water quality level, and distance from water conveyance projects. Four-level assessment standards were formulated for the above three emergency water supply capacity indicators, as shown in Tables 7 to 9.

[0095] Table 7. Standards for the Beneficial Reservoir Capacity for Emergency Water Supply along the Route

[0096]

[0097] Table 8 Water quality standards for emergency water supply from reservoirs along the route

[0098]

[0099] Table 9 Distance Standards for Emergency Water Supply from Reservoirs Along the Route

[0100]

[0101] ②Integrate emergency water supply capacity indicators and calculate the emergency water supply capacity index of reservoirs along the route.

[0102] (7)

[0103] In the formula: For the first Emergency water supply capacity index of reservoirs along the route; Represents the level of beneficial storage capacity; Water quality type and grade; The classification of the distance between emergency reservoirs and water conveyance projects along the route; The weight of the storage capacity for the benefit of the people; Weights for the distances between emergency reservoirs and water conveyance projects along the route; + Each weight is determined through probability analysis, set operations, or comprehensive expert evaluation.

[0104] ③ Establish emergency water supply capacity levels along the route. Based on the emergency water supply capacity index of reservoirs along the route, five levels are established: Level 5 (Very Large) with a value of 4; Level 4 (Small) with a value of 3–3.9; Level 3 (General) with a value of 2–2.9; Level 2 (Small) with a value of 1–1.9; and Level 1 (None) with a value of 0. The larger the index value, the higher the level, indicating a greater emergency water supply capacity of the reservoirs along the route. This is more important for long-distance water conveyance projects and represents a key area that needs to be prioritized in emergency situations.

[0105] Table 10 Emergency Water Supply Capacity Levels of Reservoirs Along the Route

[0106]

[0107] (6) Quantitative analysis of emergency water supply capacity of reservoirs along long-distance water conveyance projects

[0108] ① Screening of Emergency Water Supply Sources. Based on the emergency water supply capacity index of each reservoir along the route, emergency water sources to be included in the emergency water supply guarantee system are determined. When the emergency water supply capacity index is less than 3, it indicates that the reservoir does not have emergency water supply capacity or has a small emergency water supply capacity. Connecting it to the main canal may cause significant economic losses and the emergency water supply effect will be insignificant. To balance the effectiveness and economy of emergency water supply, reservoirs along the route with an emergency water supply capacity index of 3 or greater are considered for inclusion in the emergency water supply guarantee system.

[0109] ② Emergency water supply capacity analysis. The emergency water supply capacity of the reservoir is quantified based on the reservoir's average annual water storage capacity, and calculated according to formula (8):

[0110] (8)

[0111] In the formula: For the first Emergency water supply from reservoirs along the route; For the first The average water storage of reservoirs along the route over the past 10 years; For the first Dead storage capacity of reservoirs along the route; For the first Within the water supply range of each reservoir along the route, priority is given to ensuring domestic and industrial water supply in consideration of emergency water supply, while reducing the original irrigation water supply tasks.

[0112] (7) Delineation of emergency water supply guarantee zones

[0113] Due to the uncertainty of the location and timing of sudden accidents in the main canal, the sections and duration of water outages are also uncertain. Therefore, considering the reliability and convenience of emergency water supply, it is advisable to determine a relatively fixed emergency water source for each water recipient. Thus, it is necessary to divide the emergency water supply guarantee zones based on the water conveyance project, the water recipients, and the situation of reservoirs along the route, and to determine the scope of emergency water supply recipients among the reservoirs along the route. The delineation of emergency water supply guarantee zones must balance emergency water supply needs and economic efficiency. A denser distribution of emergency water sources along the route is more conducive to water supply security; however, a denser distribution of emergency water sources can lead to economic inefficiencies and a lack of sufficient water sources to choose from. Assume the guarantee zone set is... ,in Indicates the first Each protection zone, the set of water supply targets is as follows: ,in Indicates the first For each water supply target, the emergency protection zone layout should follow the following rules:

[0114] ① Based on the emergency water supply needs of the target water users, divide the area into protection zones, and try to avoid concentrating water outlets with very high protection needs in a single zone. For each protection zone... Water supply target set China belongs to The subset of water supply objects is Try to satisfy A relatively uniform distribution, that is, for any , , Smaller.

[0115] ② Based on the emergency water supply needs of the target water users, and considering the distribution of available emergency water sources, water supply capacity, engineering measures, and the possible connection between emergency water sources and the main canal, the water supply zones should be divided. Efforts should be made to ensure that each zone has a certain number of emergency water sources capable of meeting the emergency needs of that zone for a certain period of time. Emergency water supply should be provided. For a certain period of time Inside, making ,in It is an emergency water source reservoir Emergency water supply In duration Emergency water supply needs of all water recipients within the internal emergency protection zone.

[0116] ③ Considering that the water supply capacity or protection zones of emergency water source reservoirs may change flexibly under certain emergency situations, the layout of emergency water source reservoirs should be designed from the perspective of facilitating changes in emergency water source and protection zones or facilitating cross-regional emergency water supply. Introducing elasticity factor Emergency support zones Introducing elasticity factor Its value range is , The coefficient representing the maximum variation in the emergency water supply capacity of an emergency water source is related to the water storage status of the reservoir during a sudden emergency event; guarantee zone , To ensure a lower limit for flexible adjustments to the zones, the location of the emergency is relevant and determined based on the actual circumstances of the emergency. For each protection zone... There is an emergency water source. , must meet .

[0117] ④ The scope of the protection zone should not be too large or too small. If the zone is too large, the water supply security within the zone cannot be guaranteed when the emergency water source fails; if the zone is too small, the emergency water source protection will be economically unreasonable. For each protection zone... Water supply target set China belongs to The subset of water supply objects is Try to satisfy A relatively uniform distribution, that is, for any , , Smaller.

[0118] (8) Develop an emergency water supply guarantee plan

[0119] Based on the classification of accident locations in long-distance water conveyance projects, principles for the operation of emergency water supply sources are formulated for water supply failure situations, and emergency response decision-making processes are clarified to ensure that during sudden water outages in the main canal, the focus is on activating emergency water supply sources to effectively guarantee water supply safety downstream of the accident site.

[0120] 1) First, determine the method for activating emergency water supply.

[0121] The locations of accident sites in the main canal that cause partial water supply interruptions due to risk events can be divided into three categories, and the corresponding emergency water supply activation methods are as follows:

[0122] ①If the accident occurs at the head section of the water conveyance project and causes the main canal to shut down, all emergency water supply sources will be activated to supply water to the designated areas or, if conditions permit, to supply water across areas.

[0123] ② If the accident occurs between two emergency water supply zones, the water supply from the upstream water conveyance project will not be affected, and it is not necessary to activate the emergency water supply along the line above the accident point. Instead, it is necessary to activate the emergency water supply from each emergency water supply zone below the accident point to supply water to their respective zones.

[0124] ③ If an accident occurs in a section of an emergency water supply zone, the water supply upstream of the accident point will not be affected by the water conveyance project, and each zone downstream of the accident point will activate its emergency water supply for emergency water supply.

[0125] 2) Then, based on the following emergency water supply operation principles, calculate the emergency water supply volume of emergency water sources in each emergency protection zone.

[0126] ① Emergency water supply projects should not affect the safe operation and normal scheduling of water conveyance projects;

[0127] ②Using reservoirs along the route as emergency water sources for water conveyance projects should not affect the flood control safety of the reservoirs;

[0128] ③ When using reservoirs along the route as emergency water sources for water conveyance projects, priority should be given to meeting the urban domestic water needs of their original water supply tasks, followed by meeting the needs of their emergency support zones, and then supplying water to their original agricultural users.

[0129] ④ Emergency water supply sources should prioritize meeting the Level 4 needs within their respective zones, then the Level 3 needs, and so on.

[0130] ⑤ If an emergency water source fails to function, the protection zone of that emergency water source shall be merged into the protection zone of its upstream emergency water source.

[0131] ⑥ Emergency water sources should first supply water to their respective protected zones. If there is surplus water, cross-zone emergency water supply can be carried out to downstream zones.

[0132] ⑦ Emergency water supply between counties and cities within the province is coordinated within the province, while emergency water supply between provinces is coordinated and resolved between provinces through compensation, purchase, and other means.

[0133] (9) Evaluation of the effectiveness of emergency water supply guarantee

[0134] ① Assuming a sudden emergency occurs at a certain point in a long-distance water conveyance project, interrupting water supply, and without considering emergency connections with reservoirs along the route, assess the impact of this sudden emergency on water supply. ,economy Impact and risk level assessment ;

[0135] ②Consider emergency connections with reservoirs along the route to ensure emergency water supply, and reassess the impact of this sudden emergency on water supply. ,economy Impact and risk level assessment ;

[0136] ③ Comparison , , and , , The analysis considers the role and effect of implementing an emergency water supply guarantee system that connects with reservoirs along the route in reducing water supply and economic losses, and lowering the risk level.

[0137] Example 1

[0138] Taking the first phase of a certain project as an example, the specific implementation method of this method is explained.

[0139] The water supply targets in the first phase of the Central Route Project are numerous and of high importance, placing high demands on water quality, quantity, and project safety. The main canal of the first phase of the Central Route Project has a long open channel water conveyance route, traversing numerous deep excavation, high embankment, and unfavorable geological sections. It crosses many rivers and densely populated, economically developed areas with numerous industrial and mining enterprises, and includes many structures intersecting with the main canal. During the operation of the main canal, unforeseen accidents in unfavorable geological sections, near intersecting structures, or outside the main canal may pose a threat to its safe operation. Furthermore, with the socio-economic development of the areas along the route, human activities such as river channel improvement, development, and sand mining, as well as natural changes in riverbed erosion and sedimentation, may adversely affect the safe operation of the main canal, thus exposing the Central Route water conveyance main canal to several risks.

[0140] A long-distance emergency water supply method integrating risk assessment and multi-reservoir coordination includes the following steps:

[0141] (1) Comprehensive risk assessment of long-distance water conveyance projects

[0142] ①Based on the characteristics of the water conveyance project of the first phase of the central route main canal, 63 evaluation units were established along the route using 63 control gates;

[0143] ②Based on the characteristics of each assessment unit, the risk matrix method is used to assess the engineering risk, flood risk and scheduling risk of each unit. For example, the risk values ​​of a certain assessment unit are 8, 7 and 6 respectively, and the risk level is 2, that is, 4 general risk.

[0144] ③ Using the analytic hierarchy process and expert scoring method, the weights of engineering risk, flood risk, and scheduling risk were determined to be 0.4, 0.35, and 0.25, respectively. By weighted integration of engineering risk, flood risk, and scheduling risk, the comprehensive risk value of the first phase of the central route of a certain project was obtained as 7.15.

[0145] ④ Based on the risk level table, determine the comprehensive risk level of each assessment unit in the long-distance water conveyance project. Taking the above unit as an example, the comprehensive risk level of this assessment unit is determined to be 2.

[0146] (2) Assessment of the core water supply of long-distance water conveyance projects

[0147] ①The 97 water distribution gates of the main canal of the first phase of the central route project are used as units to divide the water supply into 97 entities;

[0148] ② Based on the characteristics of the water supply recipients corresponding to each water distribution point / sluice gate, an assessment of the water receiving characteristics level of the water supply recipients is conducted from three dimensions: allocated water volume, administrative type, and water source conditions. For example, if a water supply recipient's allocated water volume is 131.71 million m³... 3 The city is a prefecture-level city. This water diversion point supplies water to three water plants in the city. Two of these plants have two water sources: local surface water and the Central Route Project. The other plant has only the Central Route Project as its water source. Therefore, the corresponding water allocation level is 3, the administrative type level is 3, and the water source condition level is 3.

[0149] ③ Using the Delphi method and expert scoring method, the weights for water allocation, administrative type, and water source conditions were determined to be 0.3, 0.2, and 0.5, respectively.

[0150] ④ Calculate the core water supply level for 97 water supply targets. Taking the above-mentioned water supply targets as an example, the core water supply index for this target is calculated to be 3, and the level is 3, indicating a relatively high core water supply level.

[0151] (3) Emergency water supply guarantee demand level assessment

[0152] ① Taking the engineering unit and water supply object described in (1) and (2) as examples, the comprehensive risk level of (1) is mapped to the water supply object of (2), and the comprehensive risk assessment level corresponding to the water supply object is 2;

[0153] ② Using brainstorming and expert scoring, the weights of comprehensive risk and water supply core importance were determined to be 0.2 and 0.8, respectively; the emergency water supply guarantee demand index for this water supply target was calculated to be 2.

[0154] ③ Referring to the Emergency Water Supply Demand Level Table for Water Supply Targets, determine that the emergency water supply guarantee level for this water supply target is 2.

[0155] (4) Quantitative analysis of emergency water supply demand

[0156] Assuming the emergency water supply period is 90 days, the planned water allocation for the water supply recipients mentioned in (2) is 131.71 million m³. 3 If the emergency water supply guarantee demand level is 2, then the corresponding discounted water supply coefficient is... The value is 0.3. Using formula (5), the emergency water demand of this water supply target is calculated to be 9.743 million m³. 3 .

[0157] (5) Assessment of the emergency water supply capacity of reservoirs along the long-distance water conveyance project

[0158] ① The first phase of a certain project's central route, in conjunction with the operation of over 20 reservoirs along the route, ensures the safety of water supply in the receiving area. Based on the characteristics of the reservoirs along the route, three emergency water supply capacities were assessed: beneficial storage capacity, water quality level, and distance from the water conveyance project. For example, the beneficial storage capacity of a certain reservoir along the route is 810 million m³. 3 The water quality is classified as Class III, and the distance to the main canal is 19.9 km. Therefore, the beneficial storage capacity of the reservoirs along the route for emergency water supply is 4, the water quality is 1, and the distance is 3.

[0159] ② Using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and expert scoring method, the weights of the beneficial storage capacity level and distance level of the emergency water supply capacity of the reservoirs along the route were determined to be 0.4 and 0.6, respectively; the emergency water supply capacity index of the route was calculated to be 3.4.

[0160] ③ Based on the table of emergency water supply capacity levels of reservoirs along the route, the emergency water supply capacity level of the reservoirs along the route is determined to be 4, indicating a relatively large emergency water supply capacity.

[0161] (6) Assessment of emergency water supply source capacity

[0162] ① Taking the reservoirs along the route in (5) as an example for analysis, the emergency water supply capacity level of the reservoirs along the route is greater than 3, and they are included in a proposed water supply guarantee system;

[0163] ②According to statistics, the average water storage capacity of the reservoir over the past 10 years is 642 million cubic meters. 3 Dead storage capacity 0.7 billion m³ 3 The reservoir was originally designed to supply 0.7 billion cubic meters of water to urban domestic and industrial use. 3 The irrigation water supply task is 571 million cubic meters. 3 During emergency water supply, priority will be given to domestic and industrial water supply, while irrigation water use will be reduced. The calculated emergency water supply volume of the reservoir is 502 million cubic meters. 3 .

[0164] (7) Delineation of emergency water supply guarantee zones

[0165] After assessing and quantifying the emergency water supply capacity of available reservoirs along the route, reservoirs were designated for inclusion in the emergency water supply guarantee system. Based on the reservoirs' emergency water supply capacity and the emergency water supply needs of the recipients, and following the principles of "evenly distributing emergency water supply needs as much as possible, ensuring emergency water supply capacity meets emergency needs, appropriately considering a certain degree of flexibility, and balancing safety and economy," emergency water supply source guarantee zones were delineated, and the emergency water supply recipients of each reservoir along the route were determined. By connecting 11 existing reservoirs and 10 newly built reservoirs to the main canal, a trunk line emergency water supply guarantee network was formed, supplying emergency water to 12 guarantee zones. Among them, the 11 existing reservoirs still participate in emergency water supply by unidirectionally supplementing the main canal, while the other 10 newly built reservoirs participate in emergency water supply by forming online reservoirs through bidirectional connection with the main canal.

[0166] (8) Develop an emergency water supply guarantee plan

[0167] 1) First, determine the method for activating emergency water supply.

[0168] The locations of accident sites in the main canal that cause partial water supply interruptions due to risk events can be divided into three categories, and the corresponding emergency water supply activation methods are as follows:

[0169] ① If the accident occurs at the head section of the main canal, causing a water outage, all emergency water supply sources will be activated to supply water to their respective designated zones, or, where conditions permit, to supply water across zones. See [link to relevant documentation]. Figure 2 ;

[0170] ② If the accident occurs between two emergency water supply zones, and the upstream water supply from the North-to-North Water Diversion Project is unaffected, it is not necessary to activate the main emergency water supply source above the accident point. Instead, it is necessary to activate the emergency water supply sources below the accident point to supply water to their respective zones. See [link / reference]. Figure 3 ;

[0171] ③ If the accident occurs within a section of the emergency water supply zone, the upstream water supply from the North-to-North Water Diversion Project will not be affected, and the downstream zones will activate their emergency water supply sources for emergency water supply. See [link to relevant documentation]. Figure 4 .

[0172] 2) Based on the principle of emergency water supply operation, calculate the emergency water supply of each emergency water source in the 12 protection zones, as shown in Table 11.

[0173] Table 11 Emergency Water Supply Guarantee Volume for Phase I of a Certain Project

[0174]

[0175] (9) Evaluation of the effectiveness of emergency water supply guarantee

[0176] Taking the risk assessment of an aqueduct project in the first phase of the Central Route Project as an example, this paper analyzes the impact of emergency water supply guarantee on the risk level.

[0177] ① Assume that an aqueduct in the headworks section of the first phase of a certain project experiences overall instability or bearing capacity failure. Considering that it will take 45 days from the occurrence of the risk event to the restoration of water supply after emergency measures are implemented, the main canal's water supply will be reduced by 233 million cubic meters. 3 The total amount is RMB 245 million, with a comprehensive risk value of 9.32 and a comprehensive risk level of 3.

[0178] ② After the emergency water supply security guarantee is implemented, if the aqueduct experiences overall instability or load-bearing capacity failure, it will only affect the protection zone that uses a certain reservoir as its emergency water source. This zone includes six sluice gates. Other downstream sluice gates in this zone can be supplied with water through the emergency water sources located along the route and will be largely unaffected. In this case, the affected sluice gates will require a 45-day water supply of 21.87 million cubic meters from the central route. 3 The risk of water supply disruption is estimated at RMB 3.937 million. However, considering the estimated repair cost of RMB 10 million, the economic loss due to overall instability or damage to the aqueduct's bearing capacity is reduced. Furthermore, the affected section's water supply outlets supply only parts of the urban area, thus minimizing the scope and severity of the impact on water supply. Therefore, after implementing the emergency water source safety guarantee plan, the comprehensive risk level of the aqueduct is 7.78.

[0179] ③ After the implementation of emergency water supply guarantee for the first phase of a certain project, the water supply loss decreased from the original 233 million m³. 3 Reduced to 0.22 billion m 3 The economic losses decreased from 245 million yuan to 14 million yuan; the risk value decreased from 9.32 to 7.78, and the risk level decreased from Level 3 to Level 2, from a relatively high risk to a general risk. This demonstrates that implementing an emergency water supply guarantee system can, to a certain extent, reduce the risks and losses caused by water supply interruptions due to sudden emergencies in the central route project, and improve the water supply security level of long-distance water transmission projects.

[0180] The above are merely specific embodiments of the present invention, but the scope of protection of the present invention is not limited thereto. Any variations or substitutions that can be easily conceived by those skilled in the art within the technical scope disclosed in the present invention should be included within the scope of protection of the present invention. Contents not described in detail in this specification belong to prior art known to those skilled in the art.

Claims

1. An emergency water supply method for long-distance water transfer integrating risk assessment and multi-library coordination, characterized in that: The method comprises the following steps: Step 1: comprehensive risk assessment of long-distance water conveyance project is carried out to obtain the comprehensive risk grade of each evaluation unit as the engineering end input; Step 2: water supply object core degree assessment of water diversion outlet / water diversion gate is carried out to obtain the water supply object core degree assessment grade as the demand end input; Step 3: the comprehensive risk grade is mapped to the corresponding water supply object according to the location of the water supply object to form a comprehensive risk assessment grade, and based on the comprehensive risk assessment grade and the water supply object core degree assessment grade, the emergency water supply guarantee demand index is calculated and the emergency water supply guarantee demand grade is divided; Step 4: according to the emergency water supply guarantee demand grade, the water supply objects included in the water supply safety guarantee range are determined, and based on the planned water allocation, the emergency water supply time and the discount coefficient corresponding to the emergency water supply guarantee demand grade, the emergency water supply demand of each water supply object is quantitatively obtained; Step 5: the emergency water supply capacity of the reservoir along the line is evaluated, the emergency water supply capacity index of the reservoir along the line is calculated and the emergency water supply capacity grade is divided; Step 6: according to the emergency water supply capacity index of the reservoir along the line, the emergency guarantee water source is screened, the emergency water supply amount of each emergency guarantee water source is quantified, the life and industrial water supply are preferentially guaranteed, and the original irrigation water supply task is reduced; Step 7: combined with the distribution and connection conditions of the water conveyance project, the water supply object and the reservoir along the line, the emergency water supply guarantee demand grade and the emergency water supply demand are taken as the demand side basis, and the emergency guarantee water source and the emergency water supply amount thereof are taken as the supply side basis, the emergency water supply guarantee partition is divided; the sum of the emergency water supply amounts of the emergency guarantee water sources in each emergency water supply guarantee partition within the emergency water supply time is not less than the sum of the emergency water supply demands of the water supply objects in the emergency water supply guarantee partition within the emergency water supply time, and the emergency guarantee water source elasticity factor is introduced for the emergency guarantee water source and the emergency water supply guarantee partition elasticity factor is introduced for the emergency water supply guarantee partition to adapt to the elastic changes of the water source capacity and the partition boundary caused by the emergency; Step 8: according to different situations that the accident point is located in the canal head section of the water conveyance project, between two emergency water supply guarantee partitions or in a certain emergency water supply guarantee partition, the starting mode of the emergency guarantee water source is determined, and under the operation principles of not affecting the safe operation of the water conveyance project and the flood control safety of the reservoir, grading water supply according to the priority of the water supply object, and dynamic adjustment of the partition when the emergency guarantee water source fails, the emergency water supply dispatching and response process is formed; Step 9: under the conditions of not implementing the multi-reservoir linkage of the reservoir along the line and the long-distance water conveyance project and implementing the multi-reservoir linkage, the emergency water supply guarantee effect evaluation is carried out, and the water supply loss, economic loss and risk grade are compared as the parameter closed-loop optimization basis.

2. The long-distance water transfer emergency water supply method integrating risk assessment and multi-library coordination according to claim 1, characterized in that: Step 1 includes: dividing the evaluation unit with the nodes of the regulating sluice along the line; calculating the risk value of engineering risk, flood risk and scheduling risk for each evaluation unit respectively; weighting and integrating the risk value according to the weight coefficient to obtain the comprehensive risk value, the sum of the weight coefficient is 1, and it is determined by probability analysis, set operation or expert comprehensive evaluation; dividing each evaluation unit into comprehensive risk grades according to the comprehensive risk value: grade 1, grade 2, grade 3, grade 4, wherein grade 1 is acceptable risk, grade 2 is general risk, grade 3 is greater risk, and grade 4 is major risk.

3. The long-distance water transfer emergency water supply method integrating risk assessment and multi-library coordination according to claim 1, characterized in that: Step 2 includes: selecting the distribution water volume, administrative type and water source condition as three water receiving characteristic dimensions, and determining the grade value of each water receiving characteristic dimension according to the preset 4-grade evaluation standard; weighting and integrating the grade values of the three water receiving characteristic dimensions by weight method to obtain the water supply core degree index of the water supply object, the sum of the weight coefficient is 1, and it is determined by probability analysis, set operation or expert comprehensive evaluation; taking the highest grade when involving multiple administrative types, and taking the maximum grade when involving multiple water supply plants; and dividing the water supply core degree evaluation grade of the water supply object according to the water supply core degree index of the water supply object: grade 4, grade 3, grade 2, grade 1.

4. The long-distance water transfer emergency water supply method integrating risk assessment and multi-library coordination according to claim 1, characterized in that: Step 3 includes: reading the stake number of each water supply object to locate the evaluation unit it is in; directly assigning the comprehensive risk grade of the evaluation unit to the water supply object to obtain the comprehensive risk evaluation grade of the water supply object; based on the comprehensive risk evaluation grade and the water supply core degree evaluation grade of the water supply object, calculating the emergency water supply guarantee demand index by weight method, the sum of the comprehensive risk weight coefficient and the water supply core degree weight coefficient is 1, and it is determined by probability analysis, set operation or expert comprehensive evaluation; and dividing the emergency water supply guarantee demand grade according to the emergency water supply guarantee demand index: grade 4, grade 3, grade 2, grade 1.

5. The long-distance water transfer emergency water supply method of claim 1, wherein: Step 4 includes: determining the water supply object included in the water supply safety guarantee range according to the emergency water supply guarantee demand grade; and quantifying the emergency water supply demand of each water supply object according to the following formula: ； In the formula: is the emergency water supply demand of the first water supply object; is the discount coefficient of the first water supply object; is the planned allocation water volume of the long-distance water conveyance project to the first water supply object; is the emergency water supply duration.

6. The long-distance water transfer emergency water supply method of integrating risk assessment and multi-library cooperation according to claim 1, characterized in that: Step 5 includes: selecting the beneficial reservoir capacity of the reservoir along the line, water quality grade and distance from the water conveyance project as the emergency water supply capacity index, and formulating the corresponding grade evaluation standard; weighting and integrating the emergency water supply capacity index by weight method, calculating the emergency water supply capacity index of the reservoir along the line, the sum of the weight coefficient is 1, and it is determined by probability analysis, set operation or expert comprehensive evaluation; and dividing the emergency water supply capacity grade according to the emergency water supply capacity index of the reservoir along the line: grade 5, grade 4, grade 3, grade 2, grade 1, wherein grade 5 corresponds to the index value of 4, grade 4 corresponds to the index value of 3-3.9, grade 3 corresponds to the index value of 2-2.9, grade 2 corresponds to the index value of 1-1.9, and grade 1 corresponds to the index value of 0.

7. The long-distance water transfer emergency water supply method of integrating risk assessment and multi-library cooperation according to claim 1, characterized in that: Step 6 includes: screening the emergency guarantee water source according to the emergency water supply capacity index of the reservoir along the line, when the emergency water supply capacity index of the reservoir along the line is greater than or equal to 3, it is included in the emergency water supply guarantee system, when the emergency water supply capacity index is less than 3, it is not included; and quantifying the emergency water supply volume of each emergency guarantee water source according to the following formula: ； In the formula: For the first Emergency water supply from reservoirs along the route; For the first The average water storage of reservoirs along the route over the past 10 years; For the first Dead storage capacity of reservoirs along the route; For the first The water supply within the water supply range of each reservoir along the route.

8. The long-distance water transfer emergency water supply method of integrating risk assessment and multi-library cooperation according to claim 1, characterized in that: Step 7 comprises: under the premise of considering the emergency water supply guarantee demand level and economy, combining the water conveyance project, water supply object and the distribution and connection conditions of reservoirs along the line, taking the emergency water supply guarantee demand level and emergency water supply demand as the demand side basis, and taking the emergency guarantee water source and its emergency water supply as the supply side basis, dividing the emergency water supply guarantee zones; and following: (1) Demand balance: according to the emergency water supply guarantee demand level of the water supply object, the layout is carried out, so that the high-level demand in each emergency water supply guarantee zone is not concentrated and the overall distribution is relatively uniform; (2) Moderate scale: the range of the emergency water supply guarantee zone should not be too large or too small, so that the water supply safety in the zone can still be guaranteed when the emergency guarantee water source fails, and at the same time, the economic irrationality of the arrangement of the emergency guarantee water source is avoided.

9. The long-distance water transfer emergency water supply method of claim 1, wherein: Step 8 comprises: according to different situations that the accident point is located in the canal head section of the water conveyance project, between two emergency water supply guarantee zones or in a certain emergency water supply guarantee zone, the starting mode of the emergency guarantee water source is determined respectively: (1) When the accident point is located in the canal head section of the water conveyance project and causes the water conveyance project to stop water supply, all emergency guarantee water sources are started to supply water to their emergency water supply guarantee zones, and cross-zone emergency water supply is carried out under the condition that it is allowed; (2) When the accident point is located between two emergency water supply guarantee zones, the water supply objects above the accident point are normally supplied by the water conveyance project and are not affected, the emergency guarantee water sources above the accident point are not started, and the emergency guarantee water sources below the accident point are started to supply emergency water to their emergency water supply guarantee zones respectively; (3) When the accident point is located in a certain section in a certain emergency water supply guarantee zone, the water supply objects upstream of the accident point are normally supplied by the water conveyance project and are not affected, and the emergency guarantee water sources of each emergency water supply guarantee zone downstream of the accident point are started to supply emergency water; and under the operation principles of not affecting the safe operation of the water conveyance project and the flood control safety of the reservoir, preferentially meeting the urban domestic water demand, secondly meeting the guarantee demand in the emergency water supply guarantee zone, then supplying water to the original agricultural users, preferentially meeting the high-level guarantee demand, the emergency water supply guarantee zone being merged into the upstream emergency water supply guarantee zone when the emergency guarantee water source fails, and cross-zone emergency water supply being preferentially supplied in the emergency water supply guarantee zone and having surplus water, an emergency water supply dispatching and response process is formed, the emergency water supply dispatching and response process taking the emergency water supply guarantee zones and their emergency water supply guarantee zone flexibility factors determined in step 7 and the emergency guarantee water sources and their emergency water supply determined in step 6 as inputs.

10. The long-distance water transfer emergency water supply method of claim 1, wherein: Step 9 comprises: under the same accident scenario and the same emergency water supply time length of not implementing multi-reservoir linkage and implementing multi-reservoir linkage, the water supply loss and economic loss are calculated respectively, and the risk level is determined according to the comprehensive risk level division standard determined in step 1; the water supply loss, economic loss and risk level under the two conditions are compared to form an emergency water supply guarantee effect evaluation result; and the evaluation result is used as the parameter closed-loop optimization basis for adjusting the comprehensive risk weight coefficient and the water supply object water supply core degree weight coefficient in step 3, the discount coefficient in step 4 and the values of the emergency guarantee water source flexibility factor and the emergency water supply guarantee zone flexibility factor in step 7.

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