Critical electricity price calculation method based on green electricity energizing tempering coupling methanol preparation

Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of carbon neutralization, and discloses a critical electricity price calculation method based on green electricity energizing tempering coupling methanol preparation, and the method comprises the steps: building an ironmaking byproduct gas database and defining green hydrogen preparation parameters based on different ironmaking processes, and building a gas purification cost model based on the ironmaking byproduct gas database and the green hydrogen preparation parameters; constructing a ton methanol complete cost model of a tempering coupling methanol preparation path X; a reference process HCTM is selected, C (X) is made to be equal to C (HCTM), and an analytic expression of the critical electricity price is solved; the actual electricity price is compared with the critical electricity price, if the actual electricity price is compared with the critical electricity price, it is judged that the path X has economic advantages relative to the HCTM under the current year T and the carbon tax condition, and if not, it is judged that the path X does not have economic advantages relative to the HCTM. The investment risk of a green methanol project can be remarkably reduced.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This application relates to the field of carbon neutrality technology, and in particular to a method for calculating the critical electricity price based on green electricity-enabled tempering coupled with methanol production. Background Technology

[0002] With the advancement of global energy transition and carbon neutrality goals, reducing traditional energy consumption and carbon emissions has become an urgent technical challenge for various industries. In the chemical industry, particularly in methanol production, reducing carbon emissions and improving production economics have become key challenges. Traditional coal-to-methanol (CTM) processes generate large amounts of carbon dioxide during production, severely impacting the environment. While hydrogen-coal-to-methanol (HCTM) can reduce carbon emissions, its relatively high cost makes it difficult to compete economically with traditional processes.

[0003] In recent years, the steel industry has been a major source of carbon emissions, and the coal gas produced as a byproduct of the smelting process can be utilized as an alternative energy source. Coupled with steel byproduct coal gas, the production of methanol using green electricity for hydrogen production can not only reduce carbon emissions but also provide green and low-carbon raw materials for methanol production. However, due to the complex and highly variable composition of the coal gas, accurately assessing the energy efficiency and purification costs of the gas under different ironmaking processes, and optimizing the electricity demand and cost of the hydrogen production process, have become urgent technical challenges.

[0004] Current technology lacks a tool that can comprehensively consider multiple factors such as coal gas composition, green hydrogen cost, carbon tax changes, and electricity price fluctuations to quantitatively assess the economic competitiveness of the steel-coupled methanol process and the coal-to-methanol process in the chemical industry. Existing cost calculation methods are too simplistic and fail to fully account for future technological advancements, policy changes, and market fluctuations, resulting in an inability to accurately predict the actual cost of methanol production. Summary of the Invention

[0005] To address the aforementioned technical issues, this application provides a critical electricity price calculation method based on green electricity-enabled tempering coupled with methanol production. By accurately calculating and dynamically adjusting the critical electricity price, it can accurately predict the economic competitiveness under different process and market conditions and provide decision support for enterprises.

[0006] In a first aspect, this application provides a method for calculating the critical electricity price based on green electricity-enabled tempering coupled with methanol production, the method comprising: Step S1: Establish a database of ironmaking by-product gas based on different ironmaking processes; the database should include at least: ① the external gas output corresponding to four processes: conventional blast furnace, circulating blast furnace, oxygen-blown circulating blast furnace, and hydrogen-based vertical shaft furnace. ② In coal gas , , and The volume fractions are as follows: , , and ③ The lower heating value of coal gas is .

[0007] Step S2: Define the green hydrogen preparation parameters; among which, the green hydrogen preparation parameters include: ① The unit hydrogen power consumption function that varies with year T is: ② The non-electricity cost function for hydrogen production, which varies with year T, is: Where T represents the year, q represents the hydrogen electricity consumption function, and c represents the non-electricity cost function for hydrogen production.

[0008] Step S3: Based on the ironmaking by-product gas database and the green hydrogen preparation parameters, establish a gas purification cost model; wherein, the gas purification cost model includes: ① Cryogenic separation cost ② The energy value of the gas after impurity removal is calculated at 900. Cost converted to standard coal. Among them, and The cryogenic separation sequence is: first remove When the volume fraction is ≤5%, proceed with... Cryogenic separation.

[0009] Step S4: Construct the total cost model per ton of methanol for the methanol production route X via steelmaking coupling; wherein, the total cost model per ton of methanol for the methanol production route X via steelmaking coupling includes: ; Where X represents the methanol production pathway via steel coupling. Indicates the cost of process technology. This represents the basic cost of path X, which does not contain hydrogen or electricity, and includes the purification cost obtained based on the gas purification cost model. This represents the carbon tax as it changes with year T. Represents the net amount of methanol per ton of path X. Emission intensity; This indicates the unit cost of producing green hydrogen; H represents green hydrogen. Indicates the electricity price for green hydrogen production. Indicates the electricity consumption per unit of green hydrogen production. This represents the non-electricity costs in the process of producing green hydrogen; Indicates the power consumption of the process; This represents the amount of green hydrogen consumed per ton of methanol along path X.

[0010] Among them, the basic cost Also includes: catalyst cost: Demineralized water: Circulating water: Instrument air: Nitrogen: Personnel costs: Operations and maintenance: ,depreciation: Administrative and sales costs: Of which, administrative and sales costs are each 2% of the aforementioned basic costs.

[0011] in, The value is determined by the year T, for example: 2025: conservative carbon tax of 100 yuan / ton. Radical carbon tax of 100 yuan / ton ; 2030: Conservative carbon tax of 130 yuan / ton Radical carbon tax of 207 yuan / ton ; 2040: Conservative carbon tax of 350 yuan / ton Radical carbon tax of 946 yuan / ton ; 2050: Conservative carbon tax of 1000 yuan / ton Radical carbon tax of 2593 yuan / ton ; 2060: Conservative carbon tax of 2000 yuan / ton Radical carbon tax of 4431 yuan / ton .

[0012] Step S5: Select the reference process HCTM, let C(X) = C(HCTM), and solve for the critical electricity price. The analytical expression: .

[0013] Step S6: Set the actual electricity price With critical electricity price If a comparison is made, Then determine the carbon tax in the current year T. Under the given conditions, path X has an economic advantage over REF; otherwise, path X does not have an economic advantage over REF.

[0014] It also includes: Price range of electricity supplied by the forecast network Plotting them in the same coordinate system forms the critical electricity price curve and the electricity price envelope, graphically displaying the absolute advantage range of path X relative to REF.

[0015] Compared with the prior art, the beneficial effects of the present invention are at least as follows: The technical solution provided in this application solves the technical problem of accurately assessing the changes in multiple factors during methanol production by introducing the concept of critical electricity price. By accurately calculating the total cost and critical electricity price of different production paths, this application can quantitatively analyze the economics under different electricity price, carbon tax, and energy consumption scenarios, providing enterprises with a tool to flexibly respond to market and policy changes. Especially when carbon tax and electricity prices fluctuate significantly, this application can provide enterprises with real-time cost forecasts, ensuring that they can maintain their economic competitiveness during the green and low-carbon transformation.

[0016] Furthermore, by using a coal gas purification cost model and dynamically adjusting green hydrogen production parameters, the energy consumption and cost of methanol production can be optimized based on future technological advancements and market fluctuations. This optimization not only helps reduce the cost of green methanol production but also improves resource utilization, reduces carbon emissions, and promotes sustainable development. Attached Figure Description

[0017] To more clearly illustrate the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention, the drawings used in the description of the embodiments will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are some embodiments of the present invention. For those skilled in the art, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without creative effort.

[0018] Figure 1 This is a schematic diagram of an embodiment of a critical electricity price calculation method based on green electricity-enabled tempered steel coupled with methanol preparation in this application. Figure 2 This is a critical electricity price curve when the costs of conventional blast furnace (BFTM) and hydrogen coal methanol (HCTM) are equal in the embodiments of this application. Detailed Implementation

[0019] This application provides a method for calculating the critical electricity price based on green electricity-enabled tempered steel coupled with methanol production. The terms "first," "second," "third," "fourth," etc. (if present) in the specification, claims, and accompanying drawings of this application are used to distinguish similar objects and are not necessarily used to describe a specific order or sequence. It should be understood that such data can be interchanged where appropriate so that the embodiments described herein can be implemented in a sequence other than that illustrated or described herein. Furthermore, the terms "comprising" or "having" and any variations thereof are intended to cover a non-exclusive inclusion; for example, a process, method, system, product, or apparatus that comprises a series of steps or units is not necessarily limited to those steps or units explicitly listed, but may include other steps or units not explicitly listed or inherent to such processes, methods, products, or apparatus.

[0020] This application provides a reusable and scalable "critical electricity price" calculation model, enabling enterprises to quickly determine the economic balance point between different steel-coupled methanol processes and a reference process (hydrogen coal to methanol (HCTM)) given a gas composition, carbon tax trajectory, and electricity price forecast.

[0021] For ease of understanding, the specific process of the embodiments of this application is described below. Please refer to [link / reference]. Figure 1 One embodiment of the critical electricity price calculation method based on green electricity-enabled tempered steel coupled with methanol preparation in this application includes: Step S1: Establish a database of ironmaking by-product gas based on different ironmaking processes; the database should include at least: ① the external gas output corresponding to four processes: conventional blast furnace, circulating blast furnace, oxygen-blown circulating blast furnace, and hydrogen-based vertical shaft furnace. ② In coal gas , , and The volume fractions are as follows: , , and ③ The lower heating value of coal gas is .

[0022] Specifically, based on different typical ironmaking processes, a database of by-product gas volume and composition was established, and [the database was then introduced]. Separate energy consumption and cost functions.

[0023] Applying a database of ironmaking by-product gas to calculate relevant cost models in the coupled methanol production process of steelmaking aims to provide data on gas composition and quantity related to different ironmaking processes for subsequent model calculations and analysis. The composition and quantity of ironmaking by-product gas vary significantly across different ironmaking processes, and these differences directly affect gas purification, energy consumption, and the economics of methanol production. Therefore, an accurate gas database is crucial for subsequent economic assessments.

[0024] The ironmaking by-product gas database includes the gas's output volume, the volume fraction of each component, and the lower heating value. These data are closely related to the actual operating conditions of each ironmaking process. Specifically, traditional blast furnaces, circulating blast furnaces, oxygen-circulating circulating blast furnaces, and hydrogen-based shaft furnaces produce gas with different compositions. The output gas volume and composition (e.g., ...) of these four ironmaking processes are also important factors. , , , The difference in the lower heating value and other parameters directly determines the energy efficiency and cost of coal gas in subsequent processing. By establishing such a database, precise data support can be provided for subsequent stages such as coal gas purification, green hydrogen production, and methanol synthesis.

[0025] In the data processing, the first step is to collect data on the amount of coal gas exported based on the actual production conditions of different ironmaking processes. This coal gas volume data typically comes from the ironmaking process's production records, gas flow meter measurements, and related monitoring systems. Each process will have different coal gas production volumes at different production stages, and this data will be categorized and stored in the database according to process type; then, for each type of coal gas, its main components ( , , , The volume fraction of these components affects energy consumption and cost during the gas purification process; for example, Higher content coal gas requires more complex purification steps, leading to increased processing costs. At the same time, the lower heating value (LHV) of coal gas is also an important parameter for coal gas purification and subsequent energy calculations. The calorific value of coal gas determines the energy released by its combustion, which in turn affects energy efficiency optimization and cost analysis.

[0026] The establishment of this coal gas database requires the combination and processing of multiple data sources. For example, the volume fraction data of coal gas can be obtained through gas analysis instruments, while the lower heating value is usually obtained through combustion tests and chemical analysis. The accuracy and timeliness of the data will directly affect the accuracy of subsequent calculation models. Therefore, data standardization and processing procedures are particularly important during the database construction process. All data will be labeled according to time and process, and linked with relevant coal gas purification costs, energy consumption, and other information to support the subsequent "total cost per ton of methanol" model and critical electricity price calculation.

[0027] Overall, by establishing a coal gas database based on different ironmaking processes, accurate data support can be provided for calculating the critical electricity price of steelmaking coupled with methanol production. This will optimize energy consumption and costs in coal gas purification and methanol production processes, and ensure accurate assessment of the economic advantages of different process routes under different electricity price and carbon tax scenarios.

[0028] Step S2: Define the green hydrogen preparation parameters; among which, the green hydrogen preparation parameters include: ① The unit hydrogen power consumption function that varies with year T is: ② The non-electricity cost function for hydrogen production, which varies with year T, is: Where T represents the year, q represents the hydrogen electricity consumption function, and c represents the non-electricity cost function for hydrogen production.

[0029] Specifically, by defining green hydrogen production parameters, we can adapt to changes in energy efficiency and cost in the future water electrolysis hydrogen production process. Specifically, the unit hydrogen power consumption function and the non-electricity-priced hydrogen production cost function change with year T, reflecting the impact of technological advancements and market conditions on the electricity demand and other costs of hydrogen production over time. The power consumption function adjusts with year T, taking into account improvements in electrolysis efficiency and fluctuations in electricity prices. This parameter is related to the power consumption data for green hydrogen production and directly affects energy use and cost estimation in the methanol production process. The non-electricity-priced hydrogen production cost function considers other non-negligible cost factors such as equipment maintenance and raw materials. By defining these two parameters, we can simulate the hydrogen production costs and energy efficiency for the next few years, thereby calculating the green hydrogen cost in the methanol production process. This provides a foundation for subsequent cost calculation models, ensuring that production costs can be dynamically adjusted under different electricity and market conditions, thereby optimizing electricity procurement and resource allocation, improving the economics and adaptability of methanol production, providing enterprises with more accurate cost forecasts, and helping them make more flexible and scientific decisions in the ever-changing energy market.

[0030] Step S3: Based on the ironmaking by-product gas database and the green hydrogen preparation parameters, establish a gas purification cost model; wherein, the gas purification cost model includes: ① Cryogenic separation cost ② The energy value of the gas after impurity removal is calculated at 900. Cost converted to standard coal. Among them, and The cryogenic separation sequence is: first remove When the volume fraction is ≤5%, proceed with... Cryogenic separation.

[0031] Specifically, the purpose of establishing a coal gas purification cost model is to support subsequent cost optimization; the core components of this model include cryogenic separation costs and coal gas energy discounts, where cryogenic separation involves removing carbon dioxide from coal gas. and nitrogen The separation of these gases requires a large amount of energy. Using gas composition data provided in a gas database, the model can calculate the energy content of each type of gas. and The concentration is then used to calculate the required cryogenic separation energy consumption based on the gas volume and concentration, and based on this consumption, the cost generated during the separation process is further estimated.

[0032] During the calculation process, impurities in the gas, such as First, it is removed by cryogenic separation, with the goal of reducing its volume fraction to below 5%. Then, the remaining gas undergoes further cryogenic separation to remove [other pollutants]. The order of this process and the energy efficiency of each step will affect the overall cost. Therefore, step S3 precisely sets the separation order. The above parameters are used to calculate the required energy and cost, and thus derive the purification cost model.

[0033] The calculation of coal gas energy discount converts the energy in coal gas into the cost of standard coal, ensuring that the value of coal gas can be reasonably assessed. This calculation is based on the lower heating value data of coal gas (from a coal gas database) and the energy content of the purified coal gas, thus providing a more comprehensive assessment framework for the purification cost of coal gas. In this way, the energy utilization efficiency and purification cost of coal gas directly affect the economics of the entire production process.

[0034] The above-mentioned technical means can optimize energy efficiency in the coal gas purification process, reduce energy consumption, and reduce unnecessary costs, thereby improving the overall economic efficiency of methanol production and meeting the needs of green and low-carbon production. This method solves the problems of energy consumption and cost estimation in the coal gas purification process, provides data support for subsequent decision-making, and optimizes the cost control of methanol production.

[0035] Step S4: Construct the total cost model per ton of methanol for the methanol production route X via steelmaking coupling; wherein, the total cost model per ton of methanol for the methanol production route X via steelmaking coupling includes: ; Where X represents the methanol production pathway via steel coupling. Indicates the cost of process technology. This represents the basic cost of path X, which does not contain hydrogen or electricity, and includes the purification cost obtained based on the gas purification cost model. This represents the carbon tax as it changes with year T. Represents the net amount of methanol per ton of path X. Emission intensity; This indicates the unit cost of producing green hydrogen; H represents green hydrogen. Indicates the electricity price for green hydrogen production. Indicates the electricity consumption per unit of green hydrogen production. This represents the non-electricity costs in the process of producing green hydrogen; Indicates the power consumption of the process; This represents the amount of green hydrogen consumed per ton of methanol along path X.

[0036] Among them, the basic cost Also includes: catalyst cost: Demineralized water: Circulating water: Instrument air: Nitrogen: Personnel costs: Operations and maintenance: ,depreciation: Administrative and sales costs: Of which, administrative and sales costs are each 2% of the aforementioned basic costs.

[0037] in, Values ​​are assigned based on the year T. For 2025: a conservative carbon tax of 100 yuan / ton. Radical carbon tax of 100 yuan / ton ; 2030: Conservative carbon tax of 130 yuan / ton Radical carbon tax of 207 yuan / ton ; 2040: Conservative carbon tax of 350 yuan / ton Radical carbon tax of 946 yuan / ton ; 2050: Conservative carbon tax of 1000 yuan / ton Radical carbon tax of 2593 yuan / ton ; 2060: Conservative carbon tax of 2000 yuan / ton Radical carbon tax of 4431 yuan / ton .

[0038] Specifically, the total cost model for methanol production via the steel-coupling methanol production route X comprehensively considers factors such as coal gas purification costs, carbon tax, and hydrogen costs to accurately calculate the total cost of methanol production. The key to this model lies in dynamically adjusting and calculating various costs based on data from ironmaking by-product coal gas and green hydrogen preparation parameters. The basic cost first includes coal gas purification costs, derived from the coal gas purification cost model in step S3, which considers the composition of the coal gas and energy efficiency during the purification process. Combined with the production needs of route X and the actual quality of the coal gas, the corresponding purification costs are calculated. Furthermore, the carbon tax, varying with year T, needs to be set according to different scenarios (conservative and aggressive carbon taxes), and these carbon tax data are related to the production process of route X. Carbon dioxide emission intensity is a key factor influencing the final cost. The unit cost of green hydrogen is based on electrolysis efficiency and electricity usage during hydrogen production, which is closely related to factors such as electricity price changes and electricity consumption in hydrogen production. These data vary from year to year, reflecting the cost reduction brought about by technological advancements. Green hydrogen consumption and process electricity consumption are directly related to the scale of methanol production. After years of gradual optimization, accurate production cost predictions are finally provided. By combining the above data, the model can be flexibly adjusted to reflect changes in production costs under different years and carbon tax scenarios, thus providing enterprises with a scientific basis for decision-making, optimizing electricity procurement strategies and cost control, and ultimately helping enterprises achieve cost advantages under green and low-carbon policies.

[0039] Step S5: Select the reference process HCTM, let C(X) = C(HCTM), and solve for the critical electricity price. The analytical expression: .

[0040] Specifically, based on the aforementioned cost model, by selecting a reference process (such as traditional coal-to-methanol (CTM) or hydrogen-coal-to-methanol (HCTM), the critical electricity price is calculated when the production cost of the steel-coupled methanol path X is equal to that of the reference process. More specifically, after selecting the reference process, the cost of path X is compared with the cost of the reference process to obtain an electricity price level, i.e., the critical electricity price, which balances the costs of the two processes. By comparing various cost factors, such as green hydrogen cost, coal gas purification cost, and carbon tax, an analytical expression is established, and a solution is obtained by dynamically adjusting parameters such as carbon tax and electricity price. The specific critical electricity price is determined by factors such as the composition of the coal gas, purification costs, and the production cost of green hydrogen. These factors are precisely considered to ensure that the calculated critical electricity price adapts to different market conditions and policy environments. This step is achieved by constructing an analytical formula that includes various dynamic variables, enabling the calculation of electricity price thresholds under different years and carbon tax scenarios. This helps companies determine whether the steel-coated methanol process has an economic advantage under specific electricity price conditions. Therefore, the analytical formula for the critical electricity price provides companies with a quantitative basis for decision-making, helping to optimize electricity procurement strategies and reduce investment risks in green methanol projects.

[0041] Step S6: Set the actual electricity price With critical electricity price If a comparison is made, Then determine the carbon tax in the current year T. Under the given conditions, path X has an economic advantage over REF; otherwise, path X does not have an economic advantage over HCTM.

[0042] It also includes: Price range of electricity supplied by the forecast network Plotting them in the same coordinate system forms the critical electricity price curve and the electricity price envelope, graphically displaying the absolute advantage range of path X relative to REF.

[0043] Specifically, by comparing the actual electricity price with the critical electricity price, the economic advantage of the steel-coupled methanol production route X relative to the reference process (HCTM) is determined under the current year's T and carbon tax conditions. Route X has an economic advantage when the actual electricity price is lower than or equal to the critical electricity price; otherwise, it does not. This judgment is based on the relationship between the critical electricity price calculated by the model and the actual electricity price. Specifically, the calculation of the critical electricity price comprehensively considers multiple factors such as carbon tax, energy consumption, green hydrogen costs, and coal gas purification. When comparing the actual electricity price with the critical electricity price, if the actual electricity price is lower than the critical electricity price, it indicates that under the current conditions, the production cost of route X is lower than or equal to the reference process, thus having an economic advantage; otherwise, the cost of route X is higher than the reference process, resulting in a poorer economic advantage. Furthermore, a graphical representation is achieved by plotting the critical electricity price curve and the predicted grid electricity price range (such as high and low electricity prices) on the same coordinate system to form an electricity price envelope. This visualization can intuitively show the economic advantage range of route X relative to the reference process under different electricity price ranges, thus providing enterprises with a clearer basis for decision-making. This technology, through graphical representation and data comparison, addresses the issue of fluctuating methanol production costs under different electricity prices and carbon tax scenarios, thereby optimizing the flexibility and accuracy of investment decisions.

[0044] like Figure 2 As shown, taking the comparison between traditional blast furnace (BFTM) and hydrogen coal methanol (HCTM) as an example, the electricity price corresponding to the production cost of ton of methanol by BFTM and HCTM pathways is defined as the "critical electricity price" to determine whether there is an economic driving force for process transformation in actual circumstances.

[0045] according to: in: Includes Separation and Separation and other basic costs; From coal gas , , Conversion; ; ; It can take both conservative and aggressive values.

[0046] Calculation results: ① Before 2045, under the radical carbon tax scenario, the predicted grid electricity price is higher than the corresponding critical price curve regardless of whether it is high or low, indicating that the actual electricity cost will make the production cost of BFTM using grid electricity higher than that of HCTM. ②After 2045, under the radical carbon tax scenario, the critical price will begin to exceed the predicted grid supply price, and the BFTM (Best-Fueled Transaction) model using grid supply will be more economical than the HCTM (Hard Transaction) model. ③ Under a conservative carbon tax scenario, BFTM may not show a relative advantage until after 2055.

[0047] Those skilled in the art will clearly understand that, for the sake of convenience and brevity, the specific working processes of the systems and units described above can be referred to the corresponding processes in the foregoing method embodiments, and will not be repeated here.

[0048] If the integrated unit is implemented as a software functional unit and sold or used as an independent product, it can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium. Based on this understanding, the technical solution of this application, in essence, or the part that contributes to the prior art, or all or part of the technical solution, can be embodied in the form of a software product. This computer software product is stored in a storage medium and includes several instructions to cause a computer device (which may be a personal computer, server, or network device, etc.) to execute all or part of the steps of the methods described in the various embodiments of this application. The aforementioned storage medium includes various media capable of storing program code, such as USB flash drives, portable hard drives, read-only memory (ROM), random access memory (RAM), magnetic disks, or optical disks.

[0049] The above-described embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of this application, and are not intended to limit them. Although this application has been described in detail with reference to the foregoing embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that modifications can still be made to the technical solutions described in the foregoing embodiments, or equivalent substitutions can be made to some of the technical features. Such modifications or substitutions do not cause the essence of the corresponding technical solutions to deviate from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of this application.

Claims

1. A method for calculating the critical electricity price based on green electricity-enabled tempering coupled with methanol production, characterized in that, The method includes: Step S1: Establish a database of by-product coal gas from ironmaking based on different ironmaking processes; Step S2: Define the green hydrogen preparation parameters; Step S3: Based on the ironmaking by-product gas database and the green hydrogen preparation parameters, establish a gas purification cost model; Step S4: Construct a full cost model for one ton of methanol in the methanol production route X via steel coupling; Step S5: Select a reference process HCTM, let C(X) = C(HCTM), and solve for the critical electricity price. The analytical expression; Step S6: Set the actual electricity price With critical electricity price If a comparison is made, Then determine the carbon tax in the current year T. Under the given conditions, path X has an economic advantage over HCTM; otherwise, path X does not have an economic advantage over HCTM.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, In step S1, the ironmaking by-product gas database includes: External gas output corresponding to the four processes: traditional blast furnace, circulating blast furnace, oxygen-blown circulating blast furnace, and hydrogen-based vertical shaft furnace. ; In the gas , , and The volume fractions are as follows: , , and ; The lower heating value of coal gas is .

3. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, In step S2, the green hydrogen preparation parameters include: The function for the unit hydrogen power consumption as a function of year T is: ; The non-electricity cost function for hydrogen production, which varies with year T, is: ; Where T represents the year, q represents the hydrogen electricity consumption function, and c represents the non-electricity cost function for hydrogen production.

4. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, In step S3, the gas purification cost model includes: Cryogenic separation cost ; The energy value of the gas after impurity removal is discounted to 900. Calculate the cost of standard coal.

5. The method according to claim 3, characterized in that, In step S4, the total cost model for one ton of methanol produced via the steel coupling methanol production path X includes: ； Where X represents the methanol production pathway via steel coupling. Indicates the cost of process technology. This represents the basic cost of path X, which does not contain hydrogen or electricity, and includes the purification cost obtained based on the gas purification cost model. This represents the carbon tax as it changes with year T. Represents the net amount of methanol per ton of path X. Emission intensity; This indicates the unit cost of producing green hydrogen; H represents green hydrogen. Indicates the electricity price for green hydrogen production. Indicates the electricity consumption per unit of green hydrogen production. This represents the non-electricity costs in the process of producing green hydrogen; Indicates the power consumption of the process; This represents the amount of green hydrogen consumed per ton of methanol along path X.

6. The method according to claim 5, characterized in that, In step S5, the critical electricity price is calculated. The analytical expression: 。 7. The method according to claim 4, characterized in that, and The cryogenic separation sequence is: first remove When the volume fraction is ≤5%, proceed with... Cryogenic separation.

8. The method according to claim 5, characterized in that, The basic cost Also includes: catalyst cost: Demineralized water: Circulating water: Instrument air: Nitrogen: Personnel costs: Operations and maintenance: ,depreciation: Administrative and sales costs: Of which, administrative and sales costs are each 2% of the aforementioned basic costs.

9. The method according to claim 5, characterized in that, The value is determined by the year T.

10. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, Step S6 further includes: Will Price range of electricity supplied by the forecast network Plotting them in the same coordinate system forms the critical electricity price curve and the electricity price envelope, graphically displaying the absolute advantage range of path X relative to REF.

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