Self-diagnosis and mutation prediction method for equivalent circuit of dam life entity

Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of dam engineering safety management, in particular to a dam life body equivalent circuit self-diagnosis and mutation prediction method, which comprises the following steps of: firstly, analogy a dam into a life body containing a structure system, a circulation system and the like, then constructing an equivalent circuit model, converting core signs such as seepage and deformation into equivalent resistance with physical significance, and carrying out equivalent diagnosis and mutation prediction on the equivalent resistance. Establishing a series-parallel connection topology according to a stress-seepage coupling mechanism; the comprehensive health index current I (h) is calculated through the Ohm's law to represent the health state, the risk is predicted with the fact that the first-order derivative of I (h) to the water level is zero as the sudden change critical point criterion, the future risk can be predicted through forward and reverse rehearsal, and the safe water level interval is delimited. The method realizes scientific and explainable diagnosis, accurate identification of early damage and advanced early warning, depends on existing monitoring equipment, can be popularized to infrastructures such as side slopes and the like, and has economic and practical values.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to the field of dam engineering safety management technology, and more specifically, to a method for self-diagnosis and mutation prediction of the equivalent circuit of a dam living organism. Background Technology

[0002] Dams are critical infrastructure for maintaining national welfare and people's livelihoods, and their safety is of paramount importance. However, with the intensification of global climate change, the frequent occurrence of extreme weather, and the aging of many existing dams, traditional dam safety monitoring and assessment methods are no longer sufficient to meet the needs, and there are three major bottlenecks: First, there is a lack of comprehensive global assessment capabilities. Existing "Comprehensive Health Index (HI)" is mostly constructed through weighted summation, with highly subjective weight allocation, which cannot truly reflect the complex nonlinear coupling relationship between dam deformation and seepage indicators, and it is difficult to accurately capture key physical processes such as strong stress-seepage coupling. Second, the utilization rate of monitoring data is low. Statistical models rely on historical data and are "black boxes," with weak generalization ability and difficulty in predicting structural abrupt changes. Although finite element models have a mechanical basis, they are computationally complex and sensitive to parameters, and cannot be effectively integrated with real-time monitoring data. Third, early warning is delayed. Existing systems are based on empirical threshold alarms, and the threshold setting lacks physical basis, which is prone to false alarms or missed alarms, and cannot identify the "abrupt" critical point of dam change from quantitative to qualitative change, often making it difficult to issue effective early warnings before accidents. In summary, traditional technologies face insurmountable bottlenecks in terms of physical interpretability, comprehensive assessment, and early warning principles. Summary of the Invention

[0003] In view of this, the present invention addresses the shortcomings of the prior art by proposing a self-diagnosis and mutation prediction method for the equivalent circuit of a dam organism, aiming to solve at least one of the problems mentioned in the background art.

[0004] This invention provides a method for self-diagnosis and mutation prediction of the equivalent circuit of a dam, comprising the following steps: A multidimensional physical analogy is constructed for dams as living organisms, comparing them to living organisms that include structural and skeletal systems, circulatory and excretory systems, skin and immune systems, metabolic and energy conversion systems, and sensing and response systems. The health of the structural and skeletal systems is characterized by mechanical indicators such as stress, strain, and deformation; the health of the circulatory and excretory systems is characterized by hydraulic indicators such as seepage flow, pore water pressure, and seepage gradient; and the sensing and response systems are monitored by instruments that detect the dam's response data to changes in water level and temperature. An equivalent circuit model of a living organism is constructed, transforming the core vital signs of the dam into the basic circuit element of resistance. Based on the mathematical similarity between Darcy's law and Ohm's law, an equivalent resistance for seepage is constructed. Based on the mechanical-circuit analogy, the deformation response driven by water pressure is transformed into the deformation equivalent resistance. ; Based on the multi-physics coupling mechanism of dam seepage-stress, a series-parallel topology of equivalent resistance is constructed, which reflects the interaction relationship of physical processes inside the dam. Construct a dam self-diagnosis model and calculate the comprehensive health index current based on Ohm's law. , Water level The corresponding equivalent driving voltage, The total equivalent resistance of the circuit is determined by... The magnitude, trend, and curve shape of the values ​​characterize the health status of the dam. Construct a dam sudden change prediction model based on the comprehensive health index current. water level first derivative As a criterion for judging the critical point of change from quantitative to qualitative change in the health status of a dam, it determines whether the dam is close to the critical point of sudden change, and if it is close, it issues an early warning signal.

[0005] In some embodiments, the construction of the seepage equivalent resistance is based on the mathematical similarity between Darcy's law and Ohm's law. ,include: Establish an analogy between physical quantities: the seepage flow rate Q corresponds to the current I in the circuit, and the head difference. Corresponding voltage difference The permeability coefficient K corresponds to the conductivity. The seepage resistance corresponds to the resistance; Based on Darcy's Law Derivation of the fundamental formula for the equivalent resistance of seepage: , where L is the seepage path length and A is the cross-sectional area of ​​the water flow; Introducing the Kozeny-Carman equation ,Will Further expressed as: Where g is the acceleration due to gravity and ν is the kinematic viscosity of water. Here, n is the Kozeny-Carman constant, and n is the effective porosity of the material. The effective particle size of the material.

[0006] In some embodiments, the water pressure-driven deformation response is converted into deformation equivalent resistance based on a mechanical-circuit analogy. ,include: Establish an analogy between physical quantities: the total thrust generated by water pressure Voltage difference in the corresponding circuit Displacement rate of characteristic points of the dam body The corresponding current I corresponds to the deformation damping / stiffness, and the corresponding resistance; Define the deformation transmission coefficient ,in This represents the displacement increment of characteristic points on the dam body. For water level changes The resulting increase in load; Construct the deformed equivalent resistance formula: ,in This is a dimensional conversion factor, calibrated according to the specific unit system and reference conditions of the dam.

[0007] In some embodiments, the construction of a series-parallel topology of equivalent resistance based on the dam seepage-stress multiphysics coupling mechanism, wherein the topology reflects the interaction relationships of physical processes within the dam, includes: Series relationship includes the equivalent resistance when physical process A is a prerequisite or necessary path for physical process B. and Series connection, total resistance It is suitable for scenarios where seepage resistance is connected in series when water flows through different sections of a dam in sequence; Parallel relationships include situations where multiple independent physical processes contribute to macroscopic results or provide multiple parallel paths for the same flow, resulting in parallel equivalent resistances, and the total resistance satisfies the following condition. It is suitable for scenarios where the resistance of seepage in the dam matrix and the seepage in the cracks are combined in parallel. Coupling relationships include situations where the state of physical process A directly affects the parameters of physical process B, where the equivalent resistance of B is set as a variable resistance or a controlled source, i.e. ,in for The voltage across the two ends is applicable to situations where stress changes affect the permeability coefficient and thus alter it. Coupled scenarios.

[0008] In some embodiments, the construction of the dam abrupt change prediction model further includes: Using historical monitoring data of the dam, the parameters of the cusp catastrophe model are estimated by the least squares method or the maximum likelihood estimation method, and the mapping relationship between state variables and control variables is determined. Using the cusp curve as the basis for the early warning threshold, the safe zone and the early warning zone are divided on the control variable plane. The single-value area outside the cusp curve is the safe zone, and the double-value area inside the cusp curve is the early warning zone. The system collects real-time monitoring data of the dam's state and control variables, substitutes them into the cusp curve equation, and determines whether the control variables have entered the warning zone or are close to the critical point of sudden change. If they have entered the warning zone, a Level 1 warning is issued; if they are close to the critical point, a Level 2 warning is issued.

[0009] In some embodiments, the method also includes constructing a dam health simulation model for positive prediction: Input the water level change process over a future period of time. The The inflow to the reservoir was derived by calculating the inflow from the reservoir using a watershed runoff model based on the rainfall predicted by the meteorological department. Will Substituting into the equivalent circuit model, the future time series of the comprehensive health index current is simulated and calculated. ; calculate The derivative with respect to water level h Check the forecast period Whether it crosses zero; like If the value is always positive, the output will conclude that the dam is in a safe state during the predicted period. If future time is detected and corresponding water level Place If the value is 0, then a mutation warning message is output, including the expected mutation time. Critical water level and based on the second derivative The severity of the mutation was assessed.

[0010] In some embodiments, the dam health simulation model further includes a reverse simulation sub-step: Define safety margin coefficient Set safety constraints: ,in = , = ; Based on the current dam The function solves the above safety constraints to obtain the water level range that meets the safety requirements. ; Output As the current absolutely safe water level range for the dam, when the dam's health deteriorates... When shrinking, it automatically adjusts and tightens. The value of .

[0011] In some embodiments, the construction of the equivalent circuit model of the living organism further includes at least one of the following equivalent resistors: Stress equivalent resistance Characterizes the ability of a material to resist stress concentration under a unit load; the stress concentration region is the area of ​​stress concentration. The value decreases; Temperature effect equivalent resistance The load caused by temperature changes is equivalent to a heat voltage source.

[0012] Characterizes the dam's ability to resist temperature-induced deformation or stress; Material Deterioration Equivalent Resistance : Characterizes the long-term performance degradation of dam materials due to chemical erosion and freeze-thaw cycles, and is represented by the series resistance that monotonically increases with service time.

[0013] Compared with existing technologies, the advantages of this invention are as follows: Firstly, the diagnosis is scientific and interpretable. An equivalent circuit model is constructed using the "dam as a living organism," with parameters such as resistance and voltage, as well as series and parallel topologies, having clear physical meanings. This overcomes the "black box" limitations of traditional statistical models, allowing for traceable diagnostic conclusions. Secondly, early damage identification is sensitive and accurate. The equivalent resistance of seepage is nonlinearly correlated with porosity through the Kozeny-Carman equation, enabling the capture of early microscopic damage such as microcracks, providing early warnings weeks to months earlier than traditional threshold methods. Thirdly, the diagnosis is reliable under coupled operating conditions. Based on Biot theory, stress-seepage coupling is transformed into variable resistance and a controlled source, enabling responses to extreme weather and multi-factor scenarios, avoiding the failure of traditional models. Fourthly, the early warning is advanced and accurate. Using dI / dh=0 as the critical point criterion, the threshold is self-adaptive to the dam's state, solving the problems of false alarms and missed alarms. Fifthly, management is proactive and economical. It supports forward and reverse pre-simulation auxiliary scheduling, relies on existing monitoring equipment without additional costs, and can be extended to infrastructure such as slopes and tunnels.

[0014] The above general description and the following detailed description are exemplary and explanatory only, and are not intended to limit this disclosure.

[0015] Other features and aspects of this disclosure will become clearer from the following detailed description of exemplary embodiments with reference to the accompanying drawings. Attached Figure Description

[0016] To more clearly illustrate the specific embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings used in the description of the specific embodiments or the prior art will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are some embodiments of the present invention. For those skilled in the art, other drawings can be obtained from these drawings without creative effort.

[0017] Figure 1 The flowchart illustrates the self-diagnosis and mutation prediction method for the equivalent circuit of a dam organism provided in this embodiment of the invention. Detailed Implementation

[0018] Exemplary embodiments of the present disclosure will now be described in more detail with reference to the accompanying drawings. While exemplary embodiments of the present disclosure are shown in the drawings, it should be understood that the present disclosure may be implemented in various forms and should not be limited to the embodiments set forth herein. Rather, these embodiments are provided to enable a more thorough understanding of the present disclosure and to fully convey the scope of the disclosure to those skilled in the art. It should be noted that, unless otherwise specified, embodiments and features in the embodiments of the present invention can be combined with each other. The present invention will now be described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiments.

[0019] See Figure 1 As shown, a method for self-diagnosis and mutation prediction of the equivalent circuit of a dam according to an embodiment of this application includes the following steps: S100. Construct a multi-dimensional physical analogy of a dam as a living organism, comparing the dam to a living organism that includes a structural and skeletal system, a circulatory and excretory system, a skin and immune system, a metabolic and energy conversion system, and a sensing and response system. Among them, the health status of the structural and skeletal system is characterized by mechanical indicators such as stress, strain, and deformation; the health status of the circulatory and excretory system is characterized by hydraulic indicators such as seepage flow, pore water pressure, and seepage gradient; and the sensing and response system is detected by monitoring instruments to detect the dam's response data to changes in water level and temperature. S200. Construct an equivalent circuit model of a living organism, transforming the core vital signs of the dam into the basic circuit element of resistance. Based on the mathematical similarity between Darcy's law and Ohm's law, construct the equivalent resistance of seepage. Based on the mechanical-circuit analogy, the deformation response driven by water pressure is transformed into the deformation equivalent resistance. ; S300. Based on the multi-physics coupling mechanism of dam seepage-stress, a series-parallel topology of equivalent resistance is constructed, which reflects the interaction relationship of physical processes inside the dam. S400. Construct a dam self-diagnosis model and calculate the comprehensive health index current based on Ohm's law. , Water level The corresponding equivalent driving voltage, The total equivalent resistance of the circuit is determined by... The magnitude, trend, and curve shape of the values ​​characterize the health status of the dam. S500, Construct a dam sudden change prediction model, using the comprehensive health index current. water level first derivative As a criterion for judging the critical point of change from quantitative to qualitative change in the health status of a dam, it determines whether the dam is close to the critical point of sudden change, and if it is close, it issues an early warning signal.

[0020] In some specific embodiments, the equivalent resistance of seepage is constructed based on the mathematical similarity between Darcy's law and Ohm's law. ,include: Establish an analogy between physical quantities: the seepage flow rate Q corresponds to the current I in the circuit, and the head difference. Corresponding voltage difference The permeability coefficient K corresponds to the conductivity. The seepage resistance corresponds to the resistance; Based on Darcy's Law Derivation of the fundamental formula for the equivalent resistance of seepage: , where L is the seepage path length and A is the cross-sectional area of ​​the water flow; Introducing the Kozeny-Carman equation ,Will Further expressed as: Where g is the acceleration due to gravity and ν is the kinematic viscosity of water. Here, n is the Kozeny-Carman constant, and n is the effective porosity of the material. The effective particle size of the material.

[0021] In some specific embodiments, the deformation response driven by water pressure is converted into deformation equivalent resistance based on the mechanical-circuit analogy. ,include: Establish an analogy between physical quantities: the total thrust generated by water pressure Voltage difference in the corresponding circuit Displacement rate of characteristic points of the dam body The corresponding current I corresponds to the deformation damping / stiffness, and the corresponding resistance; Define the deformation transmission coefficient ,in This represents the displacement increment of characteristic points on the dam body. For water level changes The resulting increase in load; Construct the deformed equivalent resistance formula: ,in This is a dimensional conversion factor, calibrated according to the specific unit system and reference conditions of the dam.

[0022] In some specific embodiments, the construction of a series-parallel topology of equivalent resistance based on the dam seepage-stress multiphysics coupling mechanism, wherein the topology reflects the interaction relationships of physical processes within the dam, includes: Series relationship includes the equivalent resistance when physical process A is a prerequisite or necessary path for physical process B. and Series connection, total resistance It is suitable for scenarios where seepage resistance is connected in series when water flows through different sections of a dam in sequence; Parallel relationships include situations where multiple independent physical processes contribute to macroscopic results or provide multiple parallel paths for the same flow, resulting in parallel equivalent resistances, and the total resistance satisfies the following condition. It is suitable for scenarios where the resistance of seepage in the dam matrix and the seepage in the cracks are combined in parallel. Coupling relationships include situations where the state of physical process A directly affects the parameters of physical process B, where the equivalent resistance of B is set as a variable resistance or a controlled source, i.e. ,in for The voltage across the two ends is applicable to situations where stress changes affect the permeability coefficient and thus alter it. Coupled scenarios.

[0023] In some specific embodiments, the construction of the dam sudden change prediction model further includes: Using historical monitoring data of the dam, the parameters of the cusp catastrophe model are estimated by the least squares method or the maximum likelihood estimation method, and the mapping relationship between state variables and control variables is determined. Using the cusp curve as the basis for the early warning threshold, the safe zone and the early warning zone are divided on the control variable plane. The single-value area outside the cusp curve is the safe zone, and the double-value area inside the cusp curve is the early warning zone. The system collects real-time monitoring data of the dam's state and control variables, substitutes them into the cusp curve equation, and determines whether the control variables have entered the warning zone or are close to the critical point of sudden change. If they have entered the warning zone, a Level 1 warning is issued; if they are close to the critical point, a Level 2 warning is issued.

[0024] In some specific embodiments, it also includes S600, constructing a dam health simulation model for positive prediction: Input the water level change process over a future period of time. The The inflow to the reservoir was derived by calculating the inflow from the reservoir using a watershed runoff model based on the rainfall predicted by the meteorological department. Will Substituting into the equivalent circuit model, the future time series of the comprehensive health index current is simulated and calculated. ; calculate The derivative with respect to water level h Check the forecast period Whether it crosses zero; like If the value is always positive, the output will conclude that the dam is in a safe state during the predicted period. If future time is detected and corresponding water level Place If the value is 0, then a mutation warning message is output, including the expected mutation time. Critical water level and based on the second derivative The severity of the mutation was assessed.

[0025] In some specific embodiments, the dam health simulation model further includes a reverse simulation sub-step: Define safety margin coefficient Set safety constraints: ,in = , = ; Based on the current dam The function solves the above safety constraints to obtain the water level range that meets the safety requirements. ; Output As the current absolutely safe water level range for the dam, when the dam's health deteriorates... When shrinking, it automatically adjusts and tightens. The value of .

[0026] In some specific embodiments, the construction of the equivalent circuit model of the living organism further includes at least one of the following equivalent resistors: Stress equivalent resistance Characterizes the ability of a material to resist stress concentration under a unit load; the stress concentration region is the area of ​​stress concentration. The value decreases; Temperature effect equivalent resistance The load caused by temperature changes is equivalent to a heat voltage source.

[0027] Characterizes the dam's ability to resist temperature-induced deformation or stress; Material Deterioration Equivalent Resistance : Characterizes the long-term performance degradation of dam materials due to chemical erosion and freeze-thaw cycles, and is represented by the series resistance that monotonically increases with service time.

[0028] Specifically, this can be understood as: To achieve the aforementioned objectives, this invention treats a dam as a living organism, possessing a unique "skeletal system" (dam structure), "circulatory system" (internal seepage network), "skin" (impermeable body), and a "nervous system" that responds to external stimuli ("environmental hormones" such as water pressure and temperature). It undergoes a full life cycle from "youth" to "aging," and can "fall ill" due to internal and external factors (developing cracks, structural deterioration, and seepage channels), even experiencing "sudden death" (dam collapse) in extreme cases. Around this "dam organism," an "equivalent circuit model" is constructed, transforming the core "vital signs" affecting dam health (such as deformation and seepage) into "equivalent resistances" with clear physical meaning. Based on the physical mechanisms of these resistances interacting within this "organism" (such as the effect of stress on permeability), a complex series-parallel network is organized. The dam's main external load—water pressure—is then equivalently represented as the "driving voltage" of the circuit. Therefore, the "total current" in the entire circuit naturally becomes an indicator that can comprehensively, dynamically, and in real time reflect the overall response intensity of the dam to external stimuli. This "total current" is defined as the "dam comprehensive health index current I(h)". The physical meaning of this index is: under the excitation of unit water pressure (voltage), the sum of the effects of various energy dissipation paths (resistance) within the dam, this "living organism". A healthy "living organism" has high internal impedance, and its response (current) to external stimuli is stable and weak; conversely, a "diseased" "living organism" may have low-impedance "lesions" (such as cracks and seepage channels) inside, resulting in its response (current) being violent and abnormal.

[0029] Step 1: Constructing a multi-dimensional physical analogy of a "dam as a living organism" The dam is viewed as a complex, dynamically evolving living organism. Specifically, this includes: Structure and Skeletal System: The dam body, dam foundation, and the mountains on both banks together constitute the dam's "skeleton," which is the foundation for it to withstand external loads and maintain its own structural stability. Its health condition is measured by "mechanical indicators" such as stress, strain, and deformation.

[0030] Circulation and drainage system: The network of pores and fissures inside the dam body constitutes the water's "circulation system." Water from upstream seeps into the middle and lower reaches through this network, forming a seepage field. The health of this system is characterized by "hydraulic indicators" such as seepage flow, pore water pressure, and seepage gradient. A healthy "circulation system" should be orderly and controllable; while a "pathological" system may exhibit "atherosclerosis" (blockage) or "vascular rupture" (concentrated seepage channels).

[0031] Skin and Immune System: The dam's impermeable structures, such as concrete panels, core walls, and grout curtains, constitute the dam's "skin," serving as the first line of defense against external water pressure erosion. Its integrity directly affects the load on the "circulatory system."

[0032] Metabolism and Energy Conversion: Dams are constantly exchanging energy with the outside world. The potential energy of the upstream water is converted into the kinetic and thermal energy of the water flow through seepage, and into the strain energy of the dam through the work done by the pressure on the dam body. This process of energy conversion and dissipation is the essence of the dam's "life activities." Healthy "metabolism" is stable and slow; while violent and uncontrolled energy release (such as crack expansion) is a sign of "disease."

[0033] Sensing and Response System: The dam can "sensor" changes in the external environment, such as water level fluctuations, temperature changes, and earthquakes, and make corresponding "responses," such as increased deformation and changes in seepage. The monitoring instruments we deploy are the "nerve endings" that detect its responses.

[0034] Step 2: Construct an equivalent circuit model of the living organism An equivalent circuit model is constructed for the dam's "metabolic and energy conversion" processes. Each component in the circuit corresponds to a specific energy dissipation or storage unit in a "living organism." This includes constructing an equivalent circuit that transforms the dam's core "vital signs" (monitoring data) into the basic circuit element—resistance. The physical essence of resistance is the ability to impede energy flow, which can be broadly understood as the response of various physical processes driven by water pressure.

[0035] 2.1 Constructing the equivalent resistance of seepage ( ) Seepage is one of the most critical energy dissipation processes within a dam. The obstruction of water flow by seepage channels can be intuitively compared to the resistance of a circuit to the current. This analogy is based on the mathematical similarity between Darcy's Law and Ohm's Law.

[0036] Physics basis: Ohm's law describes the flow of electric charge in a conductor: , where I is the current (the amount of charge passing through the cross section per unit time). R is the voltage difference (driving force), and R is the resistance (impedance to current).

[0037] Darcy's law describes the flow of fluids in porous media: Where Q is the seepage flow rate (the volume of fluid passing through the cross section per unit time). It is the head difference (driving force), A is the cross-sectional area of ​​the water flow, L is the seepage path length, and K is the permeability coefficient (characterizing the water conductivity of the medium).

[0038] Analogy established: By comparing the two laws, we can establish the following precise analogy between physical quantities: seepage flow Current

[0039] head difference voltage difference

[0040] Permeability coefficient electrical conductivity

[0041] seepage resistance resistance

[0042] Formula derivation: From Ohm's Law Through the above analogy, the expression for seepage resistance can be directly derived. Darcy's law can be rewritten as follows: .

[0043] and By comparison, we can conclude that:

[0044] This formula has a very clear physical meaning: The longer the seepage path length L, the greater the resistance to water flow and the higher the electrical resistance. The larger.

[0045] The larger the cross-sectional area A of the water passage, the easier it is for water to flow through, and the lower the resistance. The smaller.

[0046] The higher the permeability coefficient K of a material (the stronger its water conductivity), the lower its electrical resistance. The smaller.

[0047] In equation (2.1.1), the permeability coefficient K is a macroscopic parameter. Further relating K to the microscopic pore structure parameters of the dam material, the Kozeny-Carman (KC) equation is introduced. The KC equation establishes a direct relationship between permeability and parameters such as material porosity (n) and specific surface area. A commonly used form of the KC equation is:

[0048] in: It is gravitational acceleration.

[0049] It is the kinematic viscosity of water, which is related to water temperature.

[0050] It is the Kozeny-Carman constant, which is related to particle shape and channel tortuosity, and is usually determined experimentally.

[0051] It is the effective porosity of the material.

[0052] It is the effective particle size of the material (e.g.) ).

[0053]

[0054] Macroscopic, measurable seepage resistance Porosity (n) is closely and nonlinearly linked to the microscopic parameter within the dam's "living organism" that directly reflects its "health status." Tiny changes in porosity (e.g., due to compaction, dissolution, or the formation of microcracks) will... This item was amplified dramatically, thus leading to Significant changes. These can be achieved through inversion analysis, utilizing the measured seepage flow rate Q and head difference. To dynamically estimate the equivalent or The changes.

[0055] 2.2 Constructing the deformed equivalent resistance ( ) The deformation (displacement) process of a dam can be transformed into an equivalent resistance. Deformation is a response to a load, while the "stiffness" of the dam body is the "resistance" to this response. The greater the stiffness, the stronger the ability to resist deformation.

[0056] Physics basis: Establish a "mechanics-circuit" analogy. In mechanics, the generalized "force" (F, or stress) ) drives the generation of a generalized "displacement" ( or strain The relationship is usually described by the material's stiffness (k) or elastic modulus (E): or .

[0057] Analogy established: Total thrust generated by water pressure voltage difference

[0058] Displacement rate of characteristic points of the dam body (The change in displacement per unit time reflects the "flow" of deformation.) Current

[0059] Deformation Damping / Stiffness resistance

[0060] Formula derivation: Define a "deformation admittance" which represents the "ease" with which a structure deforms under a unit driving force. Then, define the "deformation equivalent resistance". It's the reciprocal of this "admittance". Consider a simplified linear viscoelastic model (Kelvin-Voigt model), where the force F and displacement... The relationship between elastic stiffness k and viscous damping c is as follows: Under long-term, slow load changes, the equivalent energy dissipation characteristics can be considered. For the same load increment... (Based on water level changes) This leads to an increase in displacement in a more "healthy" (more rigid) dam body. It will be smaller. Therefore, a "deformation transmission coefficient" is defined. :

[0061] The larger this coefficient, the more "flexible" the dam body is, and the easier it is to deform. Therefore, the deformation equivalent resistance... Should be with Inversely proportional.

[0062]

[0063] in It is a dimension conversion coefficient, the value of which can be determined according to the unit system and reference state of the specific problem. It is the total thrust of water pressure on a specific dam block or the entire dam body, and is a known function of the water level h (e.g., for a vertical dam face). ). For the first time, the concept of "stiffness" from structural mechanics and the concept of "resistance" from circuits are combined through a calculable and monitorable data (displacement). This is directly related to the formula concerning the water level (h). When damage accumulates, materials deteriorate, or cracks propagate within the dam, its overall stiffness decreases. This means that under the same water level change... Below, displacement increment It will increase. According to equation (2.2.1), this will directly lead to The decrease. Therefore, The value became a direct quantitative indicator of the health status of the dam's "skeletal system." A continuously decreasing... This is a clear signal of "osteoporosis" or "worsening of internal injury".

[0064] 2.3 Constructing other equivalent resistances For the completeness of the model, other equivalent resistances can also be defined: Stress equivalent resistance ( Similar to deformation resistance, it can be defined as the ability of a material to resist stress concentration under a unit load. Stress concentration areas... It will decrease.

[0065] Temperature effect equivalent resistance ( Temperature changes cause deformation and stress in the dam body. Temperature loads can be considered equivalent to a "thermal voltage source," and their ability to "impede" deformation / stress is defined as follows: .

[0066] Material degradation equivalent resistance ( This describes the long-term performance degradation of a material due to factors such as chemical corrosion and freeze-thaw cycles. It is a series resistance that increases slowly over time, representing the natural "aging" process of a "living organism".

[0067] In dam safety diagnosis, the main focus is on and Because they are directly related to the two main modes of dam failure—seepage failure and instability failure—and their changes can be effectively captured by existing monitoring technologies.

[0068] Step 3: Construct series and parallel topology rules for equivalent resistance After quantifying the health status of each "organ" as an equivalent resistance, they are organized into an equivalent circuit with a specific topology based on their actual physical interactions within the dam's "living organism." This circuit's structure is not arbitrary, but rather a direct reflection of the dam's multiphysics coupling mechanism.

[0069] Physical basis: Stress-flow coupling effect (Biot consolidation theory) A dam is not a simple porous medium, but a porous elastic medium. Its internal seepage field and stress field are coupled and mutually influential. Changes in dam stress (e.g., increased compressive stress due to rising water levels) lead to pore compression, reducing porosity (n), and thus altering the material's permeability coefficient (K). Conversely, changes in pore water pressure within the dam alter the effective stress of the soil skeleton, causing dam deformation and stress redistribution. This profound coupling relationship cannot be fully reflected by existing weighted summation health indices, yet it forms the fundamental basis of the circuit topology of this invention.

[0070] Establishment of series and parallel topology rules: Rule 1: SeriesConnection – Causal chain or path dependency Physical criterion: When one physical process A is a prerequisite or necessary path for another physical process B to occur, their equivalent resistance... and They should be connected in series. The total resistance of a series circuit is... This reflects a strong binding relationship of "shared prosperity and shared loss".

[0071] Application Example 1 (Macro-level Zoning): Consider water seeping from upstream to downstream, passing sequentially through different areas of the dam (e.g., upstream rockfill, core cutoff wall, downstream drainage). What is the seepage resistance of these areas? , , They should be connected in series. The impermeable wall has the highest resistance and is the key to current limiting in the entire circuit.

[0072] Application Example 2 (Microscopic Mechanism): In a crack-free, dense concrete area, water must first overcome the microstructural resistance of the material to penetrate. If this area deforms under external force, leading to the initiation and propagation of microcracks, then the deformation process becomes a prerequisite for the generation of new seepage paths. In this case, we can consider the local deformation resistance... and the new seepage resistance generated due to this deformation There exists a sequential causal relationship between them.

[0073] Rule 2: Parallel Connection – Multi-path contribution or independent mechanism Physical criterion: When multiple independent physical processes A, B, C... collectively contribute to a macroscopic result, or provide multiple parallel paths for the same "flow" (such as seepage), their equivalent resistance... They should be connected in parallel. The total resistance of a parallel circuit is... This illustrates the "weakest link in the barrel" effect, meaning that the total resistance is mainly determined by the smallest resistor.

[0074] Application Example 1 (Seepage Path): Seepage in a dam can always be viewed as diffuse seepage through the matrix of the dam material (corresponding to...) ) and seepage through concentrated cracks / channels (corresponding to The two paths occur simultaneously. These two paths are in parallel. Under normal circumstances, Approaching infinity, the total seepage resistance is approximately equal to Once the crack is completed, It will decrease drastically, becoming an extremely small resistance, resulting in a decrease in the total parallel resistance. The flow rate drops sharply, while the seepage flow (current) surges. This perfectly simulates the physical process of seepage failure.

[0075] Application Example 2 (Deformation Mechanism): The overall deformation of a dam can be viewed as the result of multiple mechanisms, including elastic deformation, plastic deformation, and shear slip along the structural surfaces of the dam material itself. The equivalent deformation resistance of these different mechanisms can be considered as a parallel relationship.

[0076] Rule 3: Coupling – Variable Resistor and Controlled Source Physical criterion: When the state of a physical process A directly affects the parameters of another physical process B (such as stress affecting permeability), this is a higher-level coupling relationship than simple series and parallel connections.

[0077] Circuit Implementation: This coupling relationship is innovatively implemented in our circuit as a variable resistor or a controlled source. For example, according to Biot theory, stress affects the permeability coefficient K. Stress is also closely related to deformation. Therefore, the permeation resistance... It is not a constant, but a deformable resistance. A function of the voltage across the two ends (equivalent to the load).

[0078]

[0079] Specifically, as the load increases and deformation intensifies, it may cause the material to become compacted. Increase) or generate tensile cracks ( (Decrease). This functional relationship It can be established through material testing or refined numerical simulation (such as COMSOL-based multiphysics coupling analysis).

[0080] Example: A simplified global equivalent circuit model Based on the above rules, a preliminary global equivalent circuit model of the dam can be constructed.

[0081] Voltage source V(h): represents the total driving potential generated by the water level h. Proportional to the total water thrust, for example ,in It is a constant.

[0082] Main road resistance: Equivalent resistance due to overall deformation of the dam body and material degradation equivalent resistance Connected along the main road, they represent the overall health and aging of the "skeleton".

[0083] Seepage parallel branch: A seepage branch is connected in parallel from the main branch. The total resistance of this branch is... Due to matrix permeation resistance and crack seepage resistance They are connected in parallel.

[0084] Coupling control: The key lies in, and The value is affected by the main road The control of the "voltage" at both ends. That is:

[0085] Total equivalent resistance :

[0086] Note that the addition here may not be a simple summation, but rather a calculation based on a more refined series-parallel topology. For example, deformation and seepage are more likely to be a parallel energy dissipation mechanism, then:

[0087] The topology of this circuit itself is a profound insight and mathematical expression of the multi-physics coupling mechanism of the dam.

[0088] Step 4: Construct a dam self-diagnosis model After constructing the equivalent circuit, the comprehensive health index current I(h) of the dam is calculated to characterize the overall health of the dam. According to Ohm's law, the total current I(h) flowing through the entire equivalent circuit is:

[0089] in: The equivalent driving voltage is determined by the water level h. I(h) is the total equivalent resistance of the entire circuit network at water level h. It is a complex function that dynamically changes with water level, incorporating all factors such as deformation, seepage, aging, and coupling. This I(h) is no longer an abstract, dimensionless exponent, but a quantity with a clear physical analogy. It characterizes the "stress response intensity" of the dam "living organism" to external stimuli (water level changes).

[0090] Health status: A healthy dam has a dense internal structure and few cracks. At this point, and Both are very large, resulting in a total equivalent resistance. It is very large. Therefore, even at a relatively high water level h, its response current I(h) is relatively small and changes slowly. This represents a "stable" and "healthy" "living entity".

[0091] Sub-health / Disease State: As the dam's service life increases or it bears accumulated loads, internal damage may occur. For example, material deterioration may lead to... Reduced, or microcrack propagation leads to This will reduce the total equivalent resistance. It gradually decreases. At the same water level h, the response current I(h) will be greater than during the healthy period. This indicates that the "resistance" of the "living organism" is decreasing.

[0092] Dangerous situation: When internal cracks are about to penetrate or the structure is about to become unstable. It will reach a certain critical water level A sharp, avalanche-like drop occurs nearby. This will cause a sharp peak in the response current I(h) near that point. This indicates that the "living organism" is about to experience "organ failure" or "sudden death".

[0093] Therefore, the shape, magnitude, and rate of change of the I(h) curve become an "electrocardiogram" depicting the health status of the dam throughout its entire life cycle.

[0094] Step 5: Construct a dam sudden change prediction model Using the aforementioned dam I(h) curve, a cusp catastrophe model can be constructed for catastrophe prediction. Historical data is used to estimate the parameters of the cusp catastrophe model through methods such as least squares and maximum likelihood estimation, determining the relationship between state variables and control variables. The cusp curve serves as a preliminary basis for early warning thresholds. On the control variable plane, the single-valued region outside the cusp curve is designated as the "safe zone," and the double-valued region inside the cusp curve is designated as the "early warning zone." By monitoring the changes in state and control variables in real time, the control variable values ​​are substituted into the cusp curve equation to determine whether they have entered the double-valued region or are approaching the catastrophe critical point. If the control variable approaches or exceeds the catastrophe critical point, an early warning signal is issued, indicating that a sudden change in the dam's safety state may occur. When the control variable enters the early warning zone, it indicates that there is a possibility of a catastrophe in the system, requiring an early warning.

[0095] Simply put, in the "equivalent circuit model" of this invention, the "abrupt point" of the healthy state (e.g., the turning point from elastic deformation to plastic yielding, the starting point of microcrack instability propagation, the critical point of seepage channel penetration) will precisely correspond to the point where the first derivative of the "comprehensive health index current I(h)" with respect to the "driving voltage" (i.e., water level h) is zero, i.e., dI / dh=0. The physical basis of this judgment criterion stems from the theory of system stability and the theory of phase transition: when a system transitions from one stable equilibrium state to another, it will inevitably pass through an unstable critical point, at which point the rate of change of a certain macroscopic response quantity of the system with respect to the driving parameter will reach an extreme value. The extreme point of I(h) (derivative is zero) marks a qualitative change in the energy dissipation mechanism inside the dam, which is the earliest and most essential signal that the "disease" is about to become apparent. Therefore, by utilizing dI / dh=0, we can capture the critical leap from "quantitative change" to "qualitative change" in the dam, thereby achieving true early warning and realizing a fundamental technological leap from "monitoring" to "prediction".

[0096] Core criteria: The critical point at which the health status of a dam undergoes a qualitative change corresponds to the point where the first derivative of its comprehensive health index current I(h) with respect to the driving factor (water level h) is zero.

[0097]

[0098] Mathematical Derivation and Proof: We differentiate I(h). According to the rule of differentiation for quotients:

[0099] in , .

[0100] make Then we have:

[0101] Or it can be written as:

[0102] Equation (5.4) shows that at the critical point, the relative rate of change of the driving force (voltage V) is equal to the system response impedance (resistance). The relative rate of change of the dam. This characterizes the evolution of the dam from healthy to damaged state: Healthy phase: The dam is in a flexible operating phase. It is very large, and its decline is very slow as the water level h increases (i.e., The absolute value is very small. At this time, the driving force V(h) increases ( ) is dominant, so As h rises steadily, .

[0103] Damage accumulation stage: As h increases, internal microcracks begin to initiate and expand, but have not yet formed through-cracks. The dam's stiffness begins to decrease nonlinearly, while permeability begins to increase nonlinearly. This leads to... The rate of descent began to accelerate (i.e. (The absolute value increases).

[0104] Critical mutation point ( When the water level reaches a certain critical value At this point, one or more internal "lesions" will undergo a qualitative change. For example, a microcrack will undergo unstable propagation (corresponding to the energy release rate G in fracture mechanics reaching a critical value). Or, a dominant seepage channel suddenly becomes open (corresponding to the hydraulic gradient reaching a critical value). In that instant, the dam's system properties changed dramatically, and a new, extremely low-impedance energy dissipation channel was activated. This resulted in a significant increase in the total equivalent resistance. exist The point experienced an avalanche-like drop. In other words, at... point, The absolute value of the resistance reaches a very large peak. This sharp drop in resistance has an effect that exceeds the normal increase in the driving voltage. According to equation (5.2), this will lead to The sign of the denoted ... This point is the peak of the I(h) curve, which is the "mutation" warning signal we are looking for. Therefore, the dam "organism" itself, in the process of evolution, satisfies... This inherent physical law tells us the precise moment when it is about to "get sick," eliminating the need to define a subjective, empirical "safety threshold."

[0105] exist At the point, differentiating both sides of equation (5.3) with respect to h again, and through complex calculations, we can obtain... The expression is given by the sign of the value. This sign determines whether the point is a maximum (peak) or a minimum (valley).

[0106]

[0107] Because at the critical point Substituting these values ​​simplifies the process. A sharp, dangerous abrupt change (such as brittle fracture) corresponds to a peak in I(h), i.e. This means that at the critical point, The rate of change, i.e. It plays a leading role. A huge negative value. This means that the resistance is decreasing rapidly, which is a sign of instability.

[0108]

[0109] The more brittle a material is ( The lower the value, the more violent the crack instability and propagation process, the more concentrated the energy release, and the sharper the corresponding I(h) peak. The larger the value, the more "dangerous" the mutation is.

[0110] Step 6: Construct a dam health simulation model Based on the above models and diagnostic methods, it is possible to positively predict changes in the dam's safety status when water levels change, and to reversely simulate the water level change range that ensures dam safety, providing dam managers with a powerful decision support system.

[0111] 6.1 Positive Prediction: Anticipating Future Risks For potential future water conditions (such as predicted flood events), the system can input the corresponding water level change process, positively simulate and calculate the future evolution curve of the "comprehensive health index current I(h)", and determine whether the critical point of dI / dh=0 will be reached during the process, thereby predicting the specific time and corresponding water level when the dam may experience a "sudden change".

[0112] Input: Obtain the rainfall forecast for a future period (e.g., the next 72 hours) from the meteorological department. Using a watershed runoff generation and concentration model, calculate the corresponding reservoir inflow process and further extrapolate the reservoir's water level change curve. .

[0113] Simulation: This As driving voltage Input it into the established equivalent circuit model of the dam.

[0114] Calculation: Real-time circuit solution to obtain the future time series of the comprehensive health index current. .

[0115] Diagnosis: For Analyze the curve and calculate its derivative with respect to h. Examine the entire forecast period. Will it cross midnight?

[0116] Output and warning: If If the value remains positive throughout, the dam is predicted to be in a safe state during the predicted period. If a value is detected at some point in the future... The corresponding water level is , will appear The system will immediately issue a "mutation warning." The warning information will include: the expected time of the mutation. Critical water level and according to The assessment determines the severity of the mutation. This early warning system is based on physical process deduction, rather than a simple threshold comparison, and its reliability and lead time are unmatched by existing technologies.

[0117] 6.2 Reverse simulation: Defining the boundaries of safety The system can perform reverse engineering to calculate the safe water level variation range that the dam can withstand under its current health condition, under the safety constraint of ensuring that dI / dh is never zero (i.e., far from any abrupt change point). This provides unprecedented and reliable physical evidence for the optimal scheduling of reservoirs, the promotion of beneficial water use and the mitigation of harmful water use, especially for scientific decision-making during the flood season.

[0118] Defining a safety margin: A safe operating state means that the dam must be far from any possible points of abrupt change. We can define a safety margin factor. This requires that, at all times, the relative growth rate of the driving force must be greater than the relative decay rate of the system resistance, with a margin. That is:

[0119] This inequality guarantees that... And it is far from zero.

[0120] Solution: Based on the current health status of the dam (i.e., the current...) By solving the above inequality (using a function), we can obtain an allowable range of water level h that satisfies safety constraints. .

[0121] Output and Decision Support: The system outputs the "absolutely safe water level range" under the current dam condition. Reservoir operators can use this dynamically updated, physically defined safety zone to formulate scheduling plans for power generation, water supply, and flood control. For example, if a decline in the dam's health is predicted (…),… When the water level decreases, the system will automatically tighten the upper limit of the safe water level. This suggests that managers need to lower the water level for safety reasons.

[0122] The combined positive and negative simulation system transforms dam managers from passive "observers" into "controllers" capable of foresight and proactive risk mitigation.

[0123] V. Beneficial Effects This invention, with a novel perspective of "dam as a living organism," an original model of "equivalent circuit," and a precise criterion of "zero derivative," reshapes the technical landscape of dam safety diagnosis and early warning, and has the following beneficial effects.

[0124] It achieves scientific rigor and interpretability in diagnosis. This invention overcomes the shortcomings of traditional statistical models that lack physical meaning. By constructing an equivalent circuit model based on the metaphor of a "dam as a living organism," it imbues every parameter (resistance, voltage, current), every connection (series and parallel), and every criterion (derivative equal to zero) with profound and clear physical connotations. Diagnostic conclusions are no longer a numbers game of "knowing what but not why," but rather scientific inferences that can be traced back to their origins and conform to physical logic. This shift from "black box statistics" to "white box physics" greatly enhances decision-makers' trust in the diagnostic results.

[0125] High sensitivity and accuracy of early damage identification Percolation equivalent resistance Nonlinear correlation between the Kozeny-Carman equation and microporosity n ( Even minute changes in porosity (such as microcrack initiation) can be amplified dramatically, leading to Significant changes have been made, enabling the detection of early microscopic damage that traditional methods (such as weighted summation and statistical models) cannot identify, thus solving the problem of "highly concealed precursors of dam disease." For example, before a crack penetrates, through... An abnormal decrease can trigger an early warning, which is weeks to months earlier than traditional methods that rely on macroscopic infiltration flow exceeding a threshold.

[0126] Diagnostic reliability under complex coupled operating conditions Based on Biot's consolidation theory, the series-parallel topology rules transform the stress-percolation coupling effect into a "variable resistance and controlled source" (…). This method can accurately simulate dam responses under extreme weather conditions (such as heavy rain + high temperatures) and multiple overlapping factors (sudden rise in water level + earthquake), while traditional statistical models (relying on historical data) and finite element models (difficult to integrate monitoring data in real time) are prone to failure under such conditions. For example, when a sudden rise in water level leads to increased dam deformation, this method can dynamically update... and The coupling relationship should be understood to avoid misjudgment due to ignoring the chain reaction of "intensified deformation → crack propagation → surge in seepage".

[0127] It achieved objectivity and comprehensiveness in the evaluation. The "Comprehensive Health Index Current I(h)" proposed in this invention is "naturally generated" by simulating the natural coupling and energy transfer process of multi-physics fields within the dam body, completely eliminating the significant subjectivity of traditional health indices that are artificially weighted. It does not simply combine indicators such as deformation and seepage in a linear fashion, but rather embeds their nonlinear and dynamic coupling relationships within the circuit topology and component variability. Moving from "subjective weighting" to "natural coupling," a single current value encapsulates the overall response information of the entire dam system, achieving a highly comprehensive "one-dimensional" assessment of the dam's health status.

[0128] It has achieved both advanced and accurate early warning.

[0129] Traditional methods rely on experience or standards for thresholds, which cannot be dynamically adjusted as dams age or materials deteriorate. In contrast, this invention uses a "mutation critical point" (…). The threshold is determined by the dam's own physical evolution (qualitative change in energy dissipation mechanism), and the comprehensive health index current I(h) is dynamically updated with real-time monitoring data (water level, displacement, etc.). This means the threshold is self-adaptive: the critical point of a young dam is different from that of an aging dam, and the critical point of a healthy state is also different from that of a damaged state, fundamentally solving the contradiction of "conservative threshold setting leading to false alarms and lenient threshold setting leading to missed alarms." The early warning mechanism has been elevated from passively waiting for monitoring values ​​to exceed a certain empirical threshold to actively and accurately identifying the physical critical point of the system's transformation from quantitative to qualitative change, realizing a shift from "threshold alarm" to "critical prediction," making early warning no longer "locking the stable door after the horse has bolted," but truly "prevention before the event."

[0130] It has enabled proactive and forward-looking management.

[0131] This invention can not only diagnose the "present," but also predict the "future" through forward forecasting and reverse simulation of the "future." Forward forecasting (inputting the future water level process → simulating the I(h) curve) and reverse simulation (solving for the safe water level range) are both possible. This provides a quantitative basis for dam scheduling decisions. For example, during the flood season, reverse simulations can be used to calculate "what can be done to meet flood control requirements without affecting..." The system provides a "highest water level" indicator, addressing the subjectivity of traditional "experience-based scheduling." Simultaneously, the output results (such as critical water level and sudden change time) are intuitive and easy to understand, requiring no professional interpretation and lowering the barrier to practical application. It offers dam managers a powerful "digital twin" sand table, enabling them to simulate the dam's safety response under different flood scenarios on a computer, and also to reverse-engineer the optimal scheduling strategy to ensure absolute safety. This realizes a leap in dam management from "passive monitoring" to "active simulation," and from the traditional model of "relying on experience and reports" to a modern and intelligent new model based on physical models for scientific simulation and proactive decision-making.

[0132] Universality and economy This invention is highly versatile, applicable not only to various dam types (earth-rock dams, concrete dams) but also to the health diagnosis of other large infrastructure such as slopes, tunnels, and bridges. Furthermore, this invention primarily relies on existing conventional monitoring data (water level, displacement, seepage, etc.), requiring no additional expensive, new monitoring equipment. Its functionality can be achieved through software upgrades and model building, resulting in significant economic benefits and widespread application value. Those skilled in the art will understand that embodiments of this application can be provided as methods, systems, or computer program goods. Therefore, this application can take the form of a completely hardware embodiment, a completely software embodiment, or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Furthermore, this application can take the form of a computer program goods embodied on one or more computer-usable storage media (including, but not limited to, disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, etc.) containing computer-usable program code.

[0133] This application is described with reference to flowchart illustrations and / or block diagrams of methods, apparatus (systems), and computer program goods according to embodiments of this application. It will be understood that each block of the flowchart illustrations and / or block diagrams, and combinations of blocks in the flowchart illustrations and / or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions can be provided to a processor of a general-purpose computer, special-purpose computer, embedded processor, or other programmable data processing apparatus to produce a machine, such that the instructions, which execute via the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing apparatus, generate instructions for implementing the flowchart... Figure 1 One or more processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A device that provides the functions specified in one or more boxes.

[0134] These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable storage medium that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing device to function in a particular manner, such that the instructions stored in the computer-readable storage medium produce an article of manufacture including instruction means, which are implemented in a process Figure 1 One or more processes and / or boxes Figure 1 The function specified in one or more boxes.

[0135] These computer program instructions may also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing equipment to cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer or other programmable equipment to produce a computer-implemented process, thereby providing instructions that execute on the computer or other programmable equipment for implementing the process. Figure 1 One or more processes and / or boxes Figure 1 The steps of the function specified in one or more boxes.

[0136] Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention and not to limit it. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the above embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that modifications or equivalent substitutions can still be made to the specific implementation of the present invention. Any modifications or equivalent substitutions that do not depart from the spirit and scope of the present invention should be covered within the scope of protection of the claims of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for self-diagnosis and mutation prediction of the equivalent circuit of a dam's living organism, characterized in that, Includes the following steps: A multidimensional physical analogy is constructed for dams as living organisms, comparing them to living organisms that include structural and skeletal systems, circulatory and excretory systems, skin and immune systems, metabolic and energy conversion systems, and sensing and response systems. The health of the structural and skeletal systems is characterized by mechanical indicators such as stress, strain, and deformation; the health of the circulatory and excretory systems is characterized by hydraulic indicators such as seepage flow, pore water pressure, and seepage gradient; and the sensing and response systems are monitored by instruments that detect the dam's response data to changes in water level and temperature. An equivalent circuit model of a living organism is constructed, transforming the core vital signs of the dam into the basic circuit element of resistance. Based on the mathematical similarity between Darcy's law and Ohm's law, an equivalent resistance for seepage is constructed. Based on the mechanical-circuit analogy, the deformation response driven by water pressure is transformed into the deformation equivalent resistance. ; Based on the multi-physics coupling mechanism of dam seepage-stress, a series-parallel topology of equivalent resistance is constructed, which reflects the interaction relationship of physical processes inside the dam. Construct a dam self-diagnosis model and calculate the comprehensive health index current based on Ohm's law. , Water level The corresponding equivalent driving voltage, The total equivalent resistance of the circuit is determined by... The magnitude, trend, and curve shape of the values ​​characterize the health status of the dam. Construct a dam sudden change prediction model based on the comprehensive health index current. water level first derivative As a criterion for judging the critical point of change from quantitative to qualitative change in the health status of a dam, it determines whether the dam is close to the critical point of sudden change, and if it is close, it issues an early warning signal.

2. The method for self-diagnosis and mutation prediction of the equivalent circuit of a dam's life form according to claim 1, characterized in that, Based on the mathematical similarity between Darcy's law and Ohm's law, the equivalent resistance of seepage is constructed. ,include: Establish an analogy between physical quantities: the seepage flow rate Q corresponds to the current I in the circuit, and the head difference. Corresponding voltage difference The permeability coefficient K corresponds to the conductivity. The seepage resistance corresponds to the resistance; Based on Darcy's Law Derivation of the fundamental formula for the equivalent resistance of seepage: , where L is the seepage path length and A is the cross-sectional area of ​​the water flow; Introducing the Kozeny-Carman equation ,Will Further expressed as: Where g is the acceleration due to gravity and ν is the kinematic viscosity of water. Here, n is the Kozeny-Carman constant, and n is the effective porosity of the material. The effective particle size of the material.

3. The method for self-diagnosis and mutation prediction of the equivalent circuit of a dam's life form according to claim 2, characterized in that, Based on the mechanical-circuit analogy, the deformation response driven by water pressure is converted into the deformation equivalent resistance. ,include: Establish an analogy between physical quantities: the total thrust generated by water pressure Voltage difference in the corresponding circuit Displacement rate of characteristic points of the dam body The corresponding current I corresponds to the deformation damping / stiffness, and the corresponding resistance; Define the deformation transmission coefficient ,in This represents the displacement increment of characteristic points on the dam body. For water level changes The resulting increase in load; Construct the deformed equivalent resistance formula: ,in This is a dimensional conversion factor, calibrated according to the specific unit system and reference conditions of the dam.

4. The method for self-diagnosis and mutation prediction of the equivalent circuit of a dam's life form according to claim 3, characterized in that, Based on the multi-physics coupling mechanism of dam seepage-stress, a series-parallel topology of equivalent resistance is constructed. This topology reflects the interaction relationships of the internal physical processes of the dam, including: Series relationship includes the equivalent resistance when physical process A is a prerequisite or necessary path for physical process B. and Series connection, total resistance It is suitable for scenarios where seepage resistance is connected in series when water flows through different sections of a dam in sequence; Parallel relationships include situations where multiple independent physical processes contribute to macroscopic results or provide multiple parallel paths for the same flow, resulting in parallel equivalent resistances, and the total resistance satisfies the following condition. It is suitable for scenarios where the resistance of seepage in the dam matrix and the seepage in the cracks are combined in parallel. Coupling relationships include situations where the state of physical process A directly affects the parameters of physical process B, where the equivalent resistance of B is set as a variable resistance or a controlled source, i.e. ,in for The voltage across the two ends is applicable to situations where stress changes affect the permeability coefficient and thus alter it. Coupled scenarios.

5. The method for self-diagnosis and mutation prediction of the equivalent circuit of a dam's life form according to claim 4, characterized in that, The construction of the dam sudden change prediction model also includes: Using historical monitoring data of the dam, the parameters of the cusp catastrophe model are estimated by the least squares method or the maximum likelihood estimation method, and the mapping relationship between state variables and control variables is determined. Using the cusp curve as the basis for the early warning threshold, the safe zone and the early warning zone are divided on the control variable plane. The single-value area outside the cusp curve is the safe zone, and the double-value area inside the cusp curve is the early warning zone. The system collects real-time monitoring data of the dam's state and control variables, substitutes them into the cusp curve equation, and determines whether the control variables have entered the warning zone or are close to the critical point of sudden change. If they enter the warning zone, a level one warning is issued; if they are close to the critical point, a level two warning is issued.

6. The method for self-diagnosis and mutation prediction of the equivalent circuit of a dam's life form according to claim 5, characterized in that, This also includes building a dam health simulation model for positive prediction: Input the water level change process over a future period of time. The The inflow to the reservoir was derived by calculating the inflow from the reservoir using a watershed runoff model based on the rainfall predicted by the meteorological department. Will Substituting into the equivalent circuit model, the future time series of the comprehensive health index current is simulated and calculated. ; calculate The derivative with respect to water level h Check the forecast period Whether it crosses zero; like If the value is always positive, the output will conclude that the dam is in a safe state during the predicted period. If future time is detected and corresponding water level Place If the value is 0, then a mutation warning message is output, including the expected mutation time. Critical water level and based on the second derivative The severity of the mutation was assessed.

7. The method for self-diagnosis and mutation prediction of the equivalent circuit of a dam's life form according to claim 6, characterized in that, The dam health simulation model also includes a reverse simulation sub-step: Define safety margin coefficient Set safety constraints: ,in = , = ; Based on the current dam The function solves the above safety constraints to obtain the water level range that meets the safety requirements. ; Output As the current absolutely safe water level range for the dam, when the dam's health deteriorates... When shrinking, it automatically adjusts and tightens. The value of .

8. The method for self-diagnosis and mutation prediction of the equivalent circuit of a dam's life form according to claim 7, characterized in that, The construction of the equivalent circuit model of the living organism also includes at least one of the following equivalent resistors: Stress equivalent resistance Characterizes the ability of a material to resist stress concentration under a unit load; the stress concentration region is the area of ​​stress concentration. The value decreases; Temperature effect equivalent resistance The load caused by temperature changes is equivalent to a heat voltage source.

9. Characterizes the dam's ability to resist temperature-induced deformation or stress; Material Deterioration Equivalent Resistance : Characterizes the long-term performance degradation of dam materials due to chemical erosion and freeze-thaw cycles, and is represented by the series resistance that monotonically increases with service time.

Images