A method and system for power system evaluation considering participation of hydropower plants

Abstract

The application discloses a power system evaluation method and system considering the participation of hydropower stations, and adjusts the flexibility evaluation model by combining the runoff hydropower station output parameter, the wind and light output parameter and the output constraint model of each type of hydropower station in the to-be-evaluated power system, can fully consider the operation characteristics of different types of hydropower stations, and the influence of random disturbance of wind power, photovoltaic and water inflow on the regulation flexibility of the power system, so that the regulation flexibility evaluation result of the to-be-evaluated power system can be accurately obtained, in addition, the influence of the disturbance scene on the performance of the to-be-evaluated power system can be considered in the resilience evaluation process, so that the resilience quantitative evaluation result of the to-be-evaluated power system can be accurately obtained, and then the scheduling optimization of the power system under the participation of the hydropower station can be accurately and effectively realized.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to the field of power system technology, and in particular to a power system evaluation method and system that takes into account the participation of hydropower stations. Background Technology

[0002] Power systems face various types of disturbances during operation, including random disturbances from wind and solar power and water inflow, fault-based disturbances caused by individual equipment failures and aging, and extreme scenario disturbances caused by extreme weather events such as typhoons, extreme heat waves, and cold waves. The impact of different disturbances varies, and the necessary countermeasures also differ. A quantitative assessment of the power system's regulatory flexibility and resilience is needed to provide a reliable reference for power system dispatch planning and ensure safe operation. Power systems typically include different types of hydropower stations, each with varying output constraints and regulation capabilities. Therefore, achieving a quantitative assessment of the power system considering hydropower station participation is of great significance for the operational safety of the power system.

[0003] Existing technologies typically only consider the uncertainty of wind and solar power output when considering random disturbances, without taking into account the uncertainty of hydropower output affected by uncertain water flow. Therefore, existing technologies cannot accurately and effectively achieve quantitative assessment of power systems that take into account the participation of hydropower stations, making it difficult to achieve dispatch optimization of power systems with the participation of hydropower stations. Summary of the Invention

[0004] This invention provides a power system evaluation method and system that considers the participation of hydropower stations, in order to solve the technical problem that the existing technology cannot accurately and effectively realize the quantitative evaluation of power systems considering the participation of hydropower stations, thus making it difficult to achieve the scheduling optimization of power systems with the participation of hydropower stations.

[0005] To address the aforementioned technical problems, a first aspect of this invention provides a power system evaluation method considering the participation of hydropower stations, comprising:

[0006] Based on the actual operating data of each hydropower station in the power system to be evaluated, the evaluation results of the regulation flexibility of the power system to be evaluated are obtained by using the regulation flexibility evaluation model.

[0007] Based on the preset total energy output threshold and the total energy output change curve of the power system to be evaluated under the disturbance scenario, the quantitative assessment result of the resilience of the power system to be evaluated is obtained.

[0008] Based on the adjustment flexibility assessment results and the resilience quantification assessment results, an optimal scheduling objective function for the power system to be evaluated is constructed and solved to obtain an optimal scheduling strategy for the power system to be evaluated, so as to schedule the power system to be evaluated based on the optimal scheduling strategy.

[0009] The adjustment flexibility assessment model is constructed based on preset output parameters of runoff hydropower stations, wind and solar power output parameters, and output constraint models of various types of hydropower stations.

[0010] As a preferred embodiment, the method specifically constructs the output constraint model through the following steps:

[0011] Based on the preset output limit value and ramp rate, the upper and lower limits of output and ramp constraints of each hydropower station are determined.

[0012] Based on the operational constraints of each type of hydropower station, the output constraints of each type of hydropower station are determined.

[0013] Based on the upper and lower limits of output, the ramping constraint, and the output constraint conditions of various types of hydropower stations, the output constraint model is constructed.

[0014] The operational constraints include at least one of the following: power generation flow constraints, water discharge constraints, reservoir capacity constraints, and pumped storage state constraints.

[0015] As a preferred embodiment, the method specifically constructs the adjustment flexibility evaluation model through the following steps, including:

[0016] Based on the power output parameters of the runoff hydropower station and the power output parameters of the wind and solar power, a quantitative model of flexibility adjustment demand is constructed.

[0017] Based on the aforementioned output constraint model, the average water consumption rate of the adjustable hydropower station, and the average water consumption rate of the cascade hydropower station, the output range of the adjustable hydropower station and the output range of the cascade hydropower station at each time point are determined respectively.

[0018] Based on the output range of the adjustable hydropower station, the output range of the cascade hydropower station, the preset maximum regulation capacity value of the adjustable hydropower station and the maximum regulation capacity value of the cascade hydropower station, a quantitative model of flexible regulation capacity is constructed.

[0019] Based on the aforementioned flexibility adjustment demand quantification model and the aforementioned flexibility adjustment capability quantification model, a flexibility adjustment capability insufficient risk quantification model is generated.

[0020] The adjustment flexibility assessment model is obtained based on the aforementioned flexibility adjustment demand quantification model, the aforementioned flexibility adjustment capability quantification model, and the aforementioned flexibility adjustment capability insufficient risk quantification model.

[0021] As a preferred embodiment, the step of calculating the adjustment flexibility assessment result of the power system under assessment using the actual operating data of each hydropower station in the power system under assessment and employing the adjustment flexibility assessment model specifically includes:

[0022] Based on the actual operating data, the average water consumption rate of the runoff hydropower station, the average water consumption rate of the adjustable hydropower station, and the average water consumption rate of the cascade hydropower station, the output values ​​of each runoff hydropower station, the output value of the adjustable hydropower station, and the output value of the cascade hydropower station at the current moment are obtained respectively.

[0023] Based on the power output of the runoff hydropower station, the quantitative results of the upward and downward adjustment of flexibility demand are calculated using the flexibility adjustment demand quantification model.

[0024] Based on the adjustable hydropower station output range, the cascade hydropower station output range, the adjustable hydropower station output value, and the cascade hydropower station output value, the flexibility adjustment capability quantification model is used to calculate and obtain the flexibility upward adjustment capability quantification result and the flexibility downward adjustment capability quantification result.

[0025] Based on the quantitative results of the flexibility upsizing capability, the quantitative results of the flexibility downsizing capability, the quantitative results of the flexibility upsizing demand, and the quantitative results of the flexibility downsizing demand, the quantitative results of the insufficient flexibility adjustment capability risk are calculated using the flexibility adjustment capability insufficiency risk quantification model.

[0026] As a preferred embodiment, the method specifically obtains the total energy output change curve through the following steps:

[0027] Obtain the total energy output value of the power system to be evaluated at each moment under the disturbance scenario;

[0028] Based on the total energy output value at each time point, a total energy output variation curve is generated.

[0029] As a preferred embodiment, obtaining the quantitative assessment result of the resilience of the power system under evaluation based on a preset total energy output threshold and the total energy output change curve of the power system under evaluation in a disturbance scenario specifically includes:

[0030] Based on the total energy output change curve, determine the disturbance response time period, the post-disturbance operation time period, and the post-disturbance recovery time period of the power system to be evaluated, and determine the total energy output value at each time within the disturbance response time period, the post-disturbance operation time period, and the post-disturbance recovery time period;

[0031] The system performance loss value of the power system to be evaluated is determined based on the total energy output value at each time during the disturbance response period, the operation period after the disturbance, and the recovery period after the disturbance, as well as the total energy output threshold.

[0032] The disturbance response time period is the time period during which the power system under evaluation decreases from its initial total energy output value to its minimum total energy output value under the disturbance scenario; the post-disturbance operation time period is the time period during which the power system under evaluation maintains operation at the minimum total energy output value; and the post-disturbance recovery time period is the time period during which the power system under evaluation begins to recover its total energy output value from the minimum total energy output value.

[0033] As a preferred embodiment, the step of obtaining the resilience quantitative assessment result of the power system under evaluation based on a preset total energy output threshold and the total energy output change curve of the power system under evaluation in a disturbance scenario further includes:

[0034] The system performance drop rate of the power system to be evaluated is determined based on the total energy output threshold, the minimum total energy output value, and the disturbance response time period.

[0035] The system performance drop of the power system to be evaluated is determined based on the difference between the total energy output threshold and the minimum total energy output value.

[0036] Based on the total energy output change curve, obtain the total energy output recovery value of the power system to be evaluated after the recovery period following the disturbance, and determine the system performance recovery rate of the power system to be evaluated based on the total energy output recovery value, the minimum total energy output value, and the recovery period following the disturbance.

[0037] Based on the post-disturbance operating period, determine the minimum system performance duration of the power system to be evaluated;

[0038] The degree of system performance recovery of the power system to be evaluated is determined based on the difference between the total energy output recovery value and the total energy output threshold.

[0039] As a preferred embodiment, the step of constructing and solving the optimal scheduling objective function of the power system to be evaluated based on the adjustment flexibility assessment results and the resilience quantification assessment results to obtain the optimal scheduling strategy of the power system to be evaluated specifically includes:

[0040] Based on the quantification results of insufficient flexibility adjustment capability risk, the quantification results of insufficient flexibility adjustment capability risk, and the system performance loss value, the optimization scheduling objective function is constructed.

[0041] Using the output constraint model and system power balance constraint as constraints, and minimizing the optimization scheduling objective function as the optimization scheduling objective, the optimization scheduling objective function is solved to obtain the optimization scheduling strategy.

[0042] As a preferred embodiment, the system power balance constraint is specifically a balance constraint between the power system output value, load shedding amount, and preset load demand at each time point; wherein, the power system output value includes the output value of each hydropower station and the wind and solar power output value.

[0043] A second aspect of the present invention provides a power system assessment system that considers the participation of hydropower stations, comprising:

[0044] The regulation flexibility assessment module is used to calculate the regulation flexibility assessment result of the power system under assessment based on the actual operating data of each hydropower station in the power system under assessment and using the regulation flexibility assessment model.

[0045] The resilience quantification assessment module is used to obtain the resilience quantification assessment result of the power system to be assessed based on the preset total energy output threshold and the total energy output change curve of the power system to be assessed under the disturbance scenario.

[0046] The power system optimization scheduling module is used to construct and solve the optimization scheduling objective function of the power system to be evaluated based on the adjustment flexibility assessment result and the resilience quantification assessment result, so as to obtain the optimization scheduling strategy of the power system to be evaluated, and to schedule the power system to be evaluated based on the optimization scheduling strategy.

[0047] The adjustment flexibility assessment model is constructed based on preset output parameters of runoff hydropower stations, wind and solar power output parameters, and output constraint models of various types of hydropower stations.

[0048] Compared to existing technologies, the beneficial effects of this invention are that by combining the output parameters of runoff hydropower stations, wind and solar power output parameters, and the output constraint models of various types of hydropower stations in the power system to be evaluated to construct a regulation flexibility assessment model, it can fully consider the operating characteristics of different types of hydropower stations, as well as the impact of random disturbances from wind power, photovoltaic power, and inflow on the regulation flexibility of the power system, thereby accurately obtaining the regulation flexibility assessment results of the power system to be evaluated. In addition, the impact of disturbance scenarios on the performance of the power system to be evaluated can be considered during the resilience assessment process, thereby accurately obtaining the quantitative assessment results of the resilience of the power system to be evaluated, and thus accurately and effectively realizing the scheduling optimization of the power system with the participation of hydropower stations. Attached Figure Description

[0049] Figure 1This is a flowchart illustrating the power system evaluation method considering the participation of hydropower stations in an embodiment of the present invention.

[0050] Figure 2 This is a schematic diagram of the adjustment flexibility evaluation results in an embodiment of the present invention;

[0051] Figure 3 This is a schematic diagram of the total energy output change curve of the power system with the participation of multiple types of hydropower stations in the embodiments of the present invention under disturbance scenarios;

[0052] Figure 4 This is a schematic diagram of the power system evaluation system considering the participation of hydropower stations in an embodiment of the present invention. Detailed Implementation

[0053] The technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings. Obviously, the described embodiments are only some embodiments of the present invention, and not all embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by those skilled in the art without creative effort are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0054] Please see Figure 1 The first aspect of this invention provides a power system assessment method considering the participation of hydropower stations, comprising the following steps S1 to S3:

[0055] Step S1: Based on the actual operating data of each hydropower station in the power system to be evaluated, the adjustment flexibility evaluation result of the power system to be evaluated is calculated using the adjustment flexibility evaluation model.

[0056] Step S2: Based on the preset total energy output threshold and the total energy output change curve of the power system to be evaluated under the disturbance scenario, obtain the quantitative assessment result of the resilience of the power system to be evaluated.

[0057] Step S3: Based on the adjustment flexibility assessment results and the resilience quantification assessment results, construct and solve the optimal scheduling objective function of the power system to be evaluated to obtain the optimal scheduling strategy of the power system to be evaluated, so as to schedule the power system to be evaluated based on the optimal scheduling strategy.

[0058] The adjustment flexibility assessment model is constructed based on preset output parameters of runoff hydropower stations, wind and solar power output parameters, and output constraint models of various types of hydropower stations.

[0059] Specifically, to accurately reflect the output characteristics of different types of hydropower stations in the power system under evaluation and ensure the accuracy of the evaluation and dispatch of the power system involving hydropower stations, this embodiment first constructs an output constraint model for each type of hydropower station in the power system under evaluation. Then, considering that the flexibility of a power system refers to its ability to quickly and effectively adjust and respond to different operating conditions and emergencies, primarily addressing the uncertainty of new energy sources and prediction errors, it is worth noting that among the various types of hydropower stations, run-of-river hydropower stations face the uncertainty of inflow, making output difficult to control. Therefore, this embodiment further considers the output parameters of run-of-river hydropower stations, combining wind and solar power output parameters with the aforementioned output constraint model to construct a regulation flexibility evaluation model for the power system under evaluation. This model is used to perform real-time quantitative evaluation of regulation flexibility based on the actual operating data of the power system under evaluation. In this embodiment, the wind and solar power output parameters include the expected wind power output parameters, the actual wind power output probability distribution, the expected photovoltaic power output parameters, and the actual photovoltaic power output probability distribution; while the runoff hydropower station output parameters include the expected runoff hydropower station output parameters and the actual runoff hydropower station output probability distribution.

[0060] Furthermore, the concept of power system resilience differs from power system reliability, security, and robustness. It primarily refers to the power system's ability to withstand, absorb, adapt to, and rapidly recover from extreme events. Compared to reliability, resilience focuses more on the power system's ability to resist disturbances, recover, and adapt to extreme events; it is a multi-stage process. Security refers to the power system's ability to maintain continuous power supply to loads under fault conditions, mainly targeting short-term fault disturbances. Resilience, however, faces more complex disturbances with a wider impact. Compared to robustness, resilience not only focuses on the power system's ability to withstand disasters but also emphasizes its rapid recovery capability after a fault occurs.

[0061] After considering the participation of multiple types of hydropower stations, the resilience of the power system is mainly reflected in:

[0062] (1) The ability to promptly identify fault-related disturbances and extreme scenario disturbances, to make adequate preparations before an event occurs, and to respond promptly when an event occurs, thereby reducing the impact of the event. For fault-related disturbances, in the fault prevention phase, this refers to the ability to regularly inspect power generation equipment with excessively long service lives to prevent equipment aging. For extreme scenario disturbances, this refers to the ability to predict natural disaster events in advance based on meteorological disaster monitoring and early warning technologies, and to deploy preventive measures in advance, including optimizing the surrounding environment and upgrading and replacing relevant power grid equipment, to mitigate the negative impact of extreme weather events. In the fault response phase, resilience is typically assessed by evaluating the equipment's sensitivity to faults.

[0063] (2) The ability to recover promptly after a disturbance, minimizing the impact of faults and extreme scenarios. This ability is usually quantified and assessed through recovery time and recovery degree. Methods used to recover from faults after extreme scenarios include network reconstruction, component repair, and black boot. More rationally arranging the post-disaster maintenance sequence and recovering from faults faster are important manifestations of this ability. Rational energy planning and allocation can also improve fault recovery capabilities and enhance system resilience.

[0064] Quantitatively assessing the above capabilities is key to judging the resilience of a power system. Based on the quantification of power system resilience, more targeted measures such as energy planning, equipment maintenance, and forecasting technology upgrades can be taken to further improve the resilience of the power system.

[0065] It is worth noting that power systems involving multiple types of hydropower stations may face random disturbances, fault-related disturbances, and extreme scenario-related disturbances. The corresponding events, their probability of occurrence, their impact, and countermeasures are shown in Table 1 below.

[0066] Table 1. Types of disturbances faced by the power system with the participation of multiple types of hydropower stations.

[0067]

[0068] In this embodiment, when performing a quantitative assessment of the resilience of the power system under evaluation, the disturbance scenarios involved mainly consider fault-type disturbance scenarios and extreme-type disturbance scenarios. The resilience assessment can be based on the total energy output value of the power system under evaluation at each time under historical disturbance scenarios, or it can be based on the total energy output value of the power system under evaluation at each time under real-time disturbance scenarios. Similarly, production simulation technology can be used. By introducing disturbance scenario parameters, such as the probability values ​​and impact range of different types of disturbances, production simulation can be performed on the total energy output value of the power system under evaluation. The resilience assessment is then performed based on the total energy output value at each time under the disturbance scenario obtained from the production simulation. This embodiment does not impose specific limitations on these aspects.

[0069] Furthermore, based on the preset total energy output threshold and the total energy output variation curve, a quantitative assessment of the resilience of the power system to be evaluated is conducted. It is worth noting that the total energy output threshold is the minimum total energy output value for stable operation of the power system. If it is lower than the total energy output threshold, the power system cannot operate stably. The total energy output threshold can be determined based on the historical operating data and safety margin of the power system to be evaluated.

[0070] Furthermore, based on the evaluation results of the regulation flexibility and resilience quantification of the power system to be evaluated, the optimal scheduling objective function of the power system to be evaluated can be constructed and solved, thereby realizing the optimal scheduling of the power system that simultaneously considers the regulation flexibility evaluation index and the resilience evaluation index.

[0071] The power system assessment method considering the participation of hydropower stations provided in this invention constructs a regulation flexibility assessment model by combining the output parameters of run-of-river hydropower stations, wind and solar power output parameters, and output constraint models of various types of hydropower stations in the power system to be assessed. This method can fully consider the operating characteristics of different types of hydropower stations, as well as the impact of random disturbances from wind power, photovoltaic power, and inflow on the regulation flexibility of the power system, thereby accurately obtaining the regulation flexibility assessment results of the power system to be assessed. In addition, the method can consider the impact of disturbance scenarios on the performance of the power system to be assessed during the resilience assessment process, thereby accurately obtaining the quantitative assessment results of the resilience of the power system to be assessed, and thus accurately and effectively achieving the scheduling optimization of the power system with the participation of hydropower stations.

[0072] As a preferred embodiment, the method specifically constructs the output constraint model through the following steps:

[0073] Based on the preset output limit value and ramp rate, the upper and lower limits of output and ramp constraints of each hydropower station are determined.

[0074] Based on the operational constraints of each type of hydropower station, the output constraints of each type of hydropower station are determined.

[0075] Based on the upper and lower limits of output, the ramping constraint, and the output constraint conditions of various types of hydropower stations, the output constraint model is constructed.

[0076] The operational constraints include at least one of the following: power generation flow constraints, water discharge constraints, reservoir capacity constraints, and pumped storage state constraints.

[0077] Specifically, the upper and lower limits of output and the ramp constraint in this embodiment are shown in the following expressions:

[0078] ;

[0079] ;

[0080] in, and The first h A hydropower station t Minimum and maximum output limits at any given time. For the first h A hydropower stationt Output value at any given moment The gradient rate is used to limit the change in power output of a hydropower station between adjacent time points.

[0081] Furthermore, the hydropower stations in this embodiment include run-of-river hydropower stations, adjustable hydropower stations, cascade hydropower stations, and pumped storage hydropower stations.

[0082] It is worth noting that run-of-river hydropower stations have no reservoir capacity regulation. Their power generation flow is related to the inflow and the maximum power generation flow, and is therefore uncertain. The specific output and related constraints can be expressed as follows:

[0083] ;

[0084] ;

[0085] ;

[0086] ;

[0087] in, For the first h A single-stream hydropower station t The actual runoff and hydropower generation flow of the hydropower station at any given time. For the first h A single-stream hydropower station t The amount of water flowing in at any given time. For the first h A single-stream hydropower station t The maximum runoff hydropower generation flow at any given time is determined by the following constraint conditions in this embodiment: It can constrain the power generation flow of runoff hydropower stations. For the first h A single-stream hydropower station t The amount of water discarded at any given time is subject to the following constraints: To constrain. For the first h A single-stream hydropower station t Output value at any given moment The average water consumption rate of runoff hydropower stations, in m³. 3 / (kWh).

[0088] Furthermore, adjustable hydropower stations have good regulation capabilities, the magnitude of which is related to the reservoir size and is subject to constraints such as power generation flow constraints, reservoir capacity balance constraints, reservoir capacity constraints, and initial and final reservoir capacity constraints. The specific expressions are as follows:

[0089] ;

[0090] ;

[0091] ;

[0092] ;

[0093] ;

[0094] in, and The first h A variable hydropower station t The minimum and maximum adjustable hydropower generation flow rates at any given time. For the first h A variable hydropower station t The actual power generation flow of the adjustable hydropower station at any given time is determined by the power generation flow constraint in this embodiment: It can constrain the power generation flow of adjustable hydropower stations; For the first h A variable hydropower station t Storage capacity at any time and The first h A variable hydropower station t The minimum and maximum adjustable reservoir capacity limits for hydropower stations at any given time are expressed in this embodiment using the following expressions: It can constrain the reservoir capacity of adjustable hydropower stations; The final moment in the operation of the power system to be evaluated. and Both are constants, representing the initial and final reservoir capacities of the adjustable hydropower station, respectively, which constrain the initial and final reservoir capacities of the adjustable hydropower station; in addition, the reservoir capacity balance constraint of the adjustable hydropower station is: ,in, For the first h A variable hydropower station t The amount of water flowing in at any given time. For the first h A variable hydropower station t The amount of water discarded at any given time is constrained by the following conditions in this embodiment: The amount of water to be discarded is constrained to be greater than or equal to 0.

[0095] Furthermore, the formula for calculating the output of an adjustable hydropower station is shown in the following expression:

[0096] ;

[0097] in, This refers to the adjustable power output of the hydropower station. This refers to the average water consumption rate of an adjustable hydropower station.

[0098] Furthermore, cascade hydropower stations are a special type of adjustable hydropower station, possessing regulation capabilities. However, their upstream and downstream power stations are coupled, and the downstream flow from the upstream power station experiences a time lag. The water flows to the downstream hydropower station, therefore its reservoir capacity balance constraint is:

[0099] ;

[0100] in, For the first h A series of hydropower stations t Storage capacity at any time For the first h A series of hydropower stations t The amount of water flowing in at any given time. For the first h A series of hydropower stations t The actual power generation flow of the cascade hydropower stations at any given time. For the first h A series of hydropower stations t The amount of water discarded at any given time. For the next level of hydropower station The flow rate at any given moment, For the next level of hydropower station Power generation flow rate at any given moment For the next level of hydropower station The amount of water discarded at any given moment.

[0101] Furthermore, the power generation flow constraints, reservoir capacity constraints, initial and final reservoir capacity constraints, and water discharge constraints of cascade hydropower stations are similar to those of adjustable hydropower stations. Specifically, the actual power generation flow of the cascade hydropower stations is constrained by preset maximum and minimum power generation flow rates. The reservoir capacity of the cascade hydropower stations is constrained by maximum and minimum reservoir capacity limits. The initial and final reservoir capacities of the cascade hydropower stations are used to constrain their initial and final capacity. The water discharge of the cascade hydropower stations is constrained by a minimum water discharge limit. Preferably, in this embodiment, the minimum water discharge limit is 0. In this embodiment, the reservoir capacity constraints of the cascade hydropower stations include reservoir balance constraints, reservoir capacity constraints, and initial and final reservoir capacity constraints.

[0102] Furthermore, the formula for calculating the output of a cascade hydropower station is shown in the following expression:

[0103] ;

[0104] in, This refers to the output value of the cascade hydropower stations. This represents the average water consumption rate of a cascade hydropower station.

[0105] Furthermore, pumped storage power stations play an important role in medium- and long-term time-scale regulation. They can store water to generate electricity during periods of excess power generation in the wet season and release water to generate electricity during periods of low power generation in the dry season. The reservoir capacity constraint they are subject to is the reservoir capacity balance constraint, as follows:

[0106] ;

[0107] in, For the first h A pumped storage power station t Storage capacity at any time For the first h A pumped storage power station t The amount of water flowing in at any given time. This refers to the amount of water pumped out by a pumped-storage hydroelectric power station in the next-level hydroelectric power station. For the first h A pumped storage power station t The actual power generation flow of the pumped storage power station at any given time. For the first h A pumped storage power station t The amount of water discarded at any given time. For the next level of hydropower station The outflow rate at any given time, among which, For the next level of hydropower station Power generation flow rate at any given moment For the next level of hydropower station The amount of water discarded at any given moment.

[0108] Since pumped storage power stations cannot pump and store water simultaneously, the following additional constraints on their pumped storage status are added:

[0109] ;

[0110] in, and These are the power consumption state variables and the power generation state variables, respectively. When the corresponding state is in the corresponding state, the value is 1, otherwise it is 0. The two states cannot occur at the same time.

[0111] As a preferred embodiment, the method specifically constructs the adjustment flexibility evaluation model through the following steps, including:

[0112] Based on the power output parameters of the runoff hydropower station and the power output parameters of the wind and solar power, a quantitative model of flexibility adjustment demand is constructed.

[0113] Based on the aforementioned output constraint model, the average water consumption rate of the adjustable hydropower station, and the average water consumption rate of the cascade hydropower station, the output range of the adjustable hydropower station and the output range of the cascade hydropower station at each time point are determined respectively.

[0114] Based on the output range of the adjustable hydropower station, the output range of the cascade hydropower station, the preset maximum regulation capacity value of the adjustable hydropower station and the maximum regulation capacity value of the cascade hydropower station, a quantitative model of flexible regulation capacity is constructed.

[0115] Based on the aforementioned flexibility adjustment demand quantification model and the aforementioned flexibility adjustment capability quantification model, a flexibility adjustment capability insufficient risk quantification model is generated.

[0116] The adjustment flexibility assessment model is obtained based on the aforementioned flexibility adjustment demand quantification model, the aforementioned flexibility adjustment capability quantification model, and the aforementioned flexibility adjustment capability insufficient risk quantification model.

[0117] Specifically, this embodiment first determines the actual output value of the runoff hydropower station, the expected output value of wind power, the actual output value of wind power, the expected output value of photovoltaic power, and the actual output value of photovoltaic power at each time point based on the output parameters of the runoff hydropower station and the wind and solar power output parameters. This embodiment defines... t The expected output of the runoff hydropower station, wind power station, and photovoltaic power station at that time are respectively , and The actual output values ​​are respectively , and Furthermore, the actual output value is uncertain, and each satisfies its own probability distribution function. , and It is worth noting that in this embodiment, the actual output values ​​of wind power and photovoltaic power stations can be predicted based on machine learning algorithms using historical wind power output data, historical photovoltaic power output data, and actual meteorological data of the power system to be evaluated. The probability distribution function of the actual output of runoff hydropower stations can be obtained by predicting output based on historical output data of the runoff hydropower stations. Since the obtained predicted output data is not accurate, it needs to be probabilistically processed, i.e., by setting confidence levels to obtain the probability distribution function. , and .

[0118] Furthermore, when the expected output exceeds the actual output, the actual output of wind power, photovoltaic power, and runoff hydropower cannot meet the expected output demand, leading to a risk of load shedding. Conversely, when the expected output is less than the actual output, a risk of power curtailment occurs. Therefore, in constructing the flexibility adjustment demand quantification model in this embodiment, by considering the actual output of runoff hydropower stations, the expected output of runoff hydropower stations, the expected output of wind power, the actual output of wind power, the expected output of photovoltaic power, and the actual output of photovoltaic power at each time point, the load shedding risk and power curtailment risk of the power system at each time point can be quantified. This allows for the determination of the flexibility increase demand quantification result and the flexibility decrease demand quantification result of the power system to be evaluated at each time point. The actual output of runoff hydropower stations is determined based on the actual power generation flow in the actual operating data of the runoff hydropower stations. Therefore, by obtaining the actual operating data of each hydropower station at different times, the flexibility adjustment demand quantification result and the flexibility decrease demand quantification result can be directly calculated using the aforementioned flexibility adjustment demand quantification model.

[0119] Furthermore, since the flexibility adjustment capability of a power system involving multiple types of hydropower stations depends on the adjustment capabilities of each adjustable hydropower station and cascade hydropower station, this embodiment constructs a flexibility adjustment capability quantification model by considering the output range of adjustable hydropower stations at each time, i.e., the maximum and minimum output of adjustable hydropower stations, as well as the output range of cascade hydropower stations at each time, i.e., the maximum and minimum output of cascade hydropower stations, and the preset maximum adjustment capability values ​​of adjustable hydropower stations and cascade hydropower stations. Based on the actual output values ​​of adjustable hydropower stations and cascade hydropower stations, the quantitative results of the upward and downward flexibility adjustment capabilities of the power system to be evaluated at each time can be determined.

[0120] As a preferred embodiment, the quantitative model for flexibility adjustment requirements is specifically as follows:

[0121] ;

[0122] ;

[0123] The quantitative model for flexibility adjustment capability is specifically as follows:

[0124] ;

[0125] The specific risk quantification model for insufficient flexibility adjustment capability is as follows:

[0126] ;

[0127] ;

[0128] in, Indicates in t The flexibility of timing increases the quantification of demand results; Indicates in t The flexibility of timing reduces the quantification of demand results; Indicates in t The sum of the expected power output of the runoff hydropower station, the expected power output of the wind power station, and the expected power output of the photovoltaic power station at any given time. Indicates in t The amount of load loss at any given time, Indicates in t The power curtailment at any given time, the load shedding and the power curtailment are both determined based on the expected output value of the run-of-river hydropower station, the actual output value of the run-of-river hydropower station, the expected output value of the wind power, the actual output value of the wind power, the expected output value of the photovoltaic power, and the actual output value of the photovoltaic power. Indicates in t The sum of the actual power output of the aforementioned hydropower station, the actual power output of the aforementioned wind power, and the actual power output of the aforementioned photovoltaic power at any given time. Indicates parameters The probability distribution function;

[0129] Indicates in t The quantitative results of the ability to adjust flexibility at any time; Indicates in t The quantitative results of the ability to reduce flexibility at any given moment; Indicates the first h A variable hydropower station t The quantitative results of the ability to adjust at any given moment; Indicates the first h A variable hydropower station t The quantitative results of the ability to reduce at any given moment; Indicates the first h A series of hydropower stations t The quantitative results of the ability to adjust at any given moment; Indicates the first h A series of hydropower stations t The quantitative results of the ability to reduce at any given moment;

[0130] The adjustable hydropower station is t The quantitative results of the upward and downward adjustment of capacity at any given time, and the cascade hydropower stations at that time. t The quantification results of the upward and downward adjustments of capability at each time point are determined by the following expressions:

[0131] ;

[0132] ;

[0133] Indicates the first h A variable hydropower station t The maximum adjustable output of a hydropower station at any given time; Indicates the first h A variable hydropower station t Adjustable power output of the hydropower station at any time; Indicates the first h A variable hydropower station t Minimum output of an adjustable hydropower station at any given time; and They represent the preset first h A variable hydropower station t The maximum upward adjustment capacity and the maximum downward adjustment capacity at any given time are the maximum regulation capacity of the adjustable hydropower station. Indicates the first h A series of hydropower stations t The maximum output of the cascade hydropower stations at any given moment; Indicates the first h A series of hydropower stations t The output value of the cascade hydropower stations at any given time; Indicates the first h A series of hydropower stations t Minimum output of the cascade hydropower stations at any given time; and They represent the preset first h A series of hydropower stations t The maximum upward adjustment capacity and the maximum downward adjustment capacity at any given time are the maximum regulation capacity values ​​of the cascade hydropower stations.

[0134] and They represent in t The inadequate ability to adjust the flexibility at any given time in terms of risk quantification results, as well as the inadequate ability to adjust the flexibility at any given time in terms of risk quantification results.

[0135] Specifically, considering the need for adjustable power sources to provide upward adjustment flexibility when facing the risk of load shedding, and downward adjustment flexibility when facing the risk of power curtailment, for... t A specific actual output at a given moment , and The corresponding load shedding and power abandonment are:

[0136] ;

[0137] ;

[0138] And parameters and parameters The expressions are shown below:

[0139] ;

[0140] ;

[0141] in, Satisfy probability distribution function The results of the power system regulation flexibility assessment are as follows: Figure 2 As shown, Figure 2 In for and The corresponding integration region, for and The corresponding integration region.

[0142] As a preferred embodiment, the step of calculating the adjustment flexibility assessment result of the power system under assessment using the actual operating data of each hydropower station in the power system under assessment and employing the adjustment flexibility assessment model specifically includes:

[0143] Based on the actual operating data, the average water consumption rate of the runoff hydropower station, the average water consumption rate of the adjustable hydropower station, and the average water consumption rate of the cascade hydropower station, the output values ​​of each runoff hydropower station, the output value of the adjustable hydropower station, and the output value of the cascade hydropower station at the current moment are obtained respectively.

[0144] Based on the power output of the runoff hydropower station, the quantitative results of the upward and downward adjustment of flexibility demand are calculated using the flexibility adjustment demand quantification model.

[0145] Based on the adjustable hydropower station output range, the cascade hydropower station output range, the adjustable hydropower station output value, and the cascade hydropower station output value, the flexibility adjustment capability quantification model is used to calculate and obtain the flexibility upward adjustment capability quantification result and the flexibility downward adjustment capability quantification result.

[0146] Based on the quantitative results of the flexibility upsizing capability, the quantitative results of the flexibility downsizing capability, the quantitative results of the flexibility upsizing demand, and the quantitative results of the flexibility downsizing demand, the quantitative results of the insufficient flexibility adjustment capability risk are calculated using the flexibility adjustment capability insufficiency risk quantification model.

[0147] It is understood that, after obtaining the current output value of the runoff hydropower station, this embodiment combines the expected output value of the runoff hydropower station at the current moment, the actual wind power output value, the actual photovoltaic output value at the current moment, and the expected wind power output value and expected photovoltaic output value at the current moment from the wind and solar power output parameters. This allows for the calculation of the current load shedding and curtailment, thereby enabling the use of a flexibility adjustment demand quantification model to calculate the current flexibility upward adjustment demand quantification results and flexibility downward adjustment demand quantification results for the power system under evaluation. The current actual wind power output value and actual photovoltaic output value can be the wind and solar power output values ​​during the actual operation of the power system, or they can be the output prediction values ​​obtained based on the probability distributions of the actual wind power output and actual photovoltaic output in the wind and solar power output parameters.

[0148] Furthermore, after obtaining the output range of adjustable hydropower stations and cascade hydropower stations at the current moment, the maximum and minimum output values ​​of adjustable hydropower stations, as well as the maximum and minimum output values ​​of cascade hydropower stations, can be determined. Then, by combining the output values ​​of each adjustable hydropower station and each cascade hydropower station at the current moment, the quantitative model of flexibility adjustment capacity can be used to determine the quantitative results of the upward and downward adjustment capacity of adjustable hydropower stations at the current moment, as well as the quantitative results of the upward and downward adjustment capacity of cascade hydropower stations at the current moment. In other words, the quantitative results of the upward and downward adjustment capacity of the flexibility of the power system to be evaluated at the current moment are obtained.

[0149] Furthermore, since the quantification model for insufficient flexibility adjustment capacity risk is constructed based on the quantification results of flexibility adjustment demand and flexibility adjustment capacity, the quantification results of current-moment flexibility upward adjustment capacity, the quantification results of flexibility downward adjustment capacity, the quantification results of flexibility upward adjustment demand, and the quantification results of flexibility downward adjustment demand obtained above, combined with the expected output values ​​of runoff hydropower stations, wind power, and photovoltaic power to determine the integration range, can be used to calculate the quantification results of insufficient flexibility upward adjustment capacity risk and insufficient flexibility downward adjustment capacity risk of the power system to be evaluated at the current moment using the quantification model for insufficient flexibility adjustment capacity risk.

[0150] As a preferred embodiment, the method specifically obtains the total energy output change curve through the following steps:

[0151] Obtain the total energy output value of the power system to be evaluated at each moment under the disturbance scenario;

[0152] Based on the total energy output value at each time point, a total energy output variation curve is generated.

[0153] Specifically, this embodiment can construct a total energy output change curve of the power system under disturbance scenarios based on the total energy output value of the power system under disturbance scenarios at various times in historical or real-time disturbance scenarios. This can reflect the various time periods of the disturbance scenario and the resilience of the power system under disturbance scenarios.

[0154] As a preferred embodiment, obtaining the quantitative assessment result of the resilience of the power system under evaluation based on a preset total energy output threshold and the total energy output change curve of the power system under evaluation in a disturbance scenario specifically includes:

[0155] Based on the total energy output change curve, determine the disturbance response time period, the post-disturbance operation time period, and the post-disturbance recovery time period of the power system to be evaluated, and determine the total energy output value at each time within the disturbance response time period, the post-disturbance operation time period, and the post-disturbance recovery time period;

[0156] The system performance loss value of the power system to be evaluated is determined based on the total energy output value at each time during the disturbance response period, the operation period after the disturbance, and the recovery period after the disturbance, as well as the total energy output threshold.

[0157] The disturbance response time period is the time period during which the power system under evaluation decreases from its initial total energy output value to its minimum total energy output value under the disturbance scenario; the post-disturbance operation time period is the time period during which the power system under evaluation maintains operation at the minimum total energy output value; and the post-disturbance recovery time period is the time period during which the power system under evaluation begins to recover its total energy output value from the minimum total energy output value.

[0158] For example, the total energy output change curve of a power system involving multiple types of hydropower stations under disturbance scenarios is shown in the figure below. Figure 3 As shown, in Figure 3 middle, P 0 represents the total energy output threshold, which is also the initial total energy output value of the power system to be evaluated before the disturbance occurs. t 0 indicates the start time of the power system to be evaluated. t 1 indicates the start time of the disturbance. P 1 represents the minimum total energy output value. t 2 indicates the moment when the power system under evaluation decreases from its initial total energy output to its minimum total energy output under a disturbance scenario. t 3 indicates the end point at which the power system under evaluation will operate at its lowest total energy output. t 4 indicates the time when the power system to be assessed will have fully recovered its total energy output. P mThe total energy output recovery value of the power system to be evaluated after the post-disturbance recovery period; where, t 2- t 1 represents the response time period after the disturbance occurs. t 3- t 2 represents the operating period after the disturbance. t 4- t 3 represents the recovery period after the disturbance. It's understandable that during normal operation of the power system, it's in a pre-disturbance prevention phase, at which point system performance stabilizes at a certain threshold. P 0 and above, this threshold is a typical total energy output range determined based on historical operating data, safety margins, etc. This threshold represents the minimum system performance required for system stability; if it falls below this threshold, the power system cannot operate stably. Disturbances in... t After moment 1 occurs, system performance degrades. The system triggers a response capability to resist the disturbance, but at this point, the disturbance is too severe, causing performance to continue to decline until... t 2. Maintain at P At performance level 1, it may maintain the state after the disturbance occurs until t At time 3, this performance represents the worst-case performance achieved by the system after being subjected to a disturbance. It is determined by the system's robustness; the stronger the robustness, the better. P The larger 1 is. t Three hours later, manpower, resources, and power generation equipment were mobilized to gradually restore system performance until... t 4-hour recovery to performance P m And maintain performance P m Run, when P 0= P m When the system returns to normal operation, if P m < P A value of 0 indicates insufficient system resilience, which is determined by the actual equipment repair situation. For power systems involving adjustable hydropower stations, the capacity of the hydropower stations can be rationally planned and configured during the pre-disturbance prevention phase, and water storage can be deployed in advance to cope with possible disasters.

[0159] Based on the total energy output change curve, the system performance changes of the power system under evaluation due to disturbances can be observed intuitively. In this embodiment, the system performance loss value is used as one of the resilience quantitative evaluation indicators of the power system under evaluation, and its calculation expression is as follows:

[0160] ;

[0161] in, The total energy output of the power system to be evaluated at various times during the disturbance response period, the post-disturbance operation period, and the post-disturbance recovery period can be understood as follows: a larger system performance loss value indicates a greater impact of the disturbance on system performance and a more severe performance loss. Under the same disturbance, a power system with a smaller system performance loss value is more resilient.

[0162] As a preferred embodiment, the step of obtaining the resilience quantitative assessment result of the power system under evaluation based on a preset total energy output threshold and the total energy output change curve of the power system under evaluation in a disturbance scenario further includes:

[0163] The system performance drop rate of the power system to be evaluated is determined based on the total energy output threshold, the minimum total energy output value, and the disturbance response time period.

[0164] The system performance drop of the power system to be evaluated is determined based on the difference between the total energy output threshold and the minimum total energy output value.

[0165] Based on the total energy output change curve, obtain the total energy output recovery value of the power system to be evaluated after the recovery period following the disturbance, and determine the system performance recovery rate of the power system to be evaluated based on the total energy output recovery value, the minimum total energy output value, and the recovery period following the disturbance.

[0166] Based on the post-disturbance operating period, determine the minimum system performance duration of the power system to be evaluated;

[0167] The degree of system performance recovery of the power system to be evaluated is determined based on the difference between the total energy output recovery value and the total energy output threshold.

[0168] Specifically, this embodiment further refines the quantitative evaluation indicators of resilience, including the system performance degradation rate. System performance drop System performance recovery rate Minimum system performance duration and system performance recovery level The expressions for each indicator are as follows:

[0169] ;

[0170] ;

[0171] ;

[0172] ;

[0173] ;

[0174] Specifically, the system performance degradation rate, degradation magnitude, and minimum system performance duration under fault-type disturbances are generally lower than those under extreme scenario disturbances. A higher system performance recovery rate and a lower system performance degradation rate under the same disturbance indicate stronger power system resilience. A system performance recovery rate less than 0 indicates insufficient system resilience. These indicators can effectively assess system resilience involving multiple types of hydropower stations.

[0175] As a preferred embodiment, the step of constructing and solving the optimal scheduling objective function of the power system to be evaluated based on the adjustment flexibility assessment results and the resilience quantification assessment results to obtain the optimal scheduling strategy of the power system to be evaluated specifically includes:

[0176] Based on the quantification results of insufficient flexibility adjustment capability risk, the quantification results of insufficient flexibility adjustment capability risk, and the system performance loss value, the optimization scheduling objective function is constructed.

[0177] Using the output constraint model and system power balance constraint as constraints, and minimizing the optimization scheduling objective function as the optimization scheduling objective, the optimization scheduling objective function is solved to obtain the optimization scheduling strategy.

[0178] Specifically, the optimization scheduling objective function is as follows: ;in, and They represent in t The results of quantifying the risk of insufficient flexibility adjustment capability at any given time and the results of quantifying the risk of insufficient flexibility adjustment capability at any given time; This represents the system performance loss value; Let represent the objective function for optimizing the scheduling.

[0179] It is worth noting that by constructing the above-mentioned optimization scheduling objective function and using production simulation technology, MATLAB CPLEX is called to solve the problem with the goal of minimizing the system performance loss value, the quantification result of insufficient flexibility upgrade capability, and the quantification result of insufficient flexibility downgrade capability. This enables power system optimization scheduling planning that considers flexibility assessment indicators and resilience assessment indicators, thereby improving the power system's disturbance rejection performance in advance and effectively before disturbances occur.

[0180] As a preferred embodiment, the system power balance constraint is specifically a balance constraint between the power system output value, load shedding amount, and preset load demand at each time point; wherein, the power system output value includes the output value of each hydropower station and the wind and solar power output value.

[0181] Specifically, the system power balance constraint in this embodiment is shown in the following expression:

[0182] ;

[0183] In this embodiment, the output value of each hydropower station includes the output value of the run-of-river hydropower station, the output value of the adjustable hydropower station, the output value of the cascade hydropower station, and the net output value of the pumped storage power station. The net output value of the pumped storage power station is the difference between the output value of the pumped storage power station and the power consumption of the pumped storage power station. , , , , and These represent the number of runoff hydropower stations, wind power stations, photovoltaic power stations, adjustable hydropower stations, cascade hydropower stations, and pumped storage power stations, respectively. Indicates the first h A variable hydropower station t Adjustable power output of the hydropower station at any time; Indicates the first h A series of hydropower stations t The output value of the cascade hydropower stations at any given time; Indicates the first h A pumped storage power station t The output value of the pumped storage power station at any given time; Indicates the first h A pumped storage power station t The power consumption of the pumped storage power station at any given time; Indicates the preset in t The load demand at any given time; Indicates in t The load shedding at any given moment; the output value of the pumped storage power station is calculated based on the actual power generation flow of the pumped storage power station, the average water consumption rate of the pumped storage power station, and the pumping efficiency. The power consumption of the pumped storage power station is calculated based on the water pumping volume of the pumped storage power station in the next-level hydropower station, the average water consumption rate of the pumped storage power station, and the pumping efficiency. The actual power generation flow of the pumped storage power station and the water pumping volume of the pumped storage power station in the next-level hydropower station can be directly obtained from the actual operating data of the pumped storage power station.

[0184] Specifically, the actual power generation flow of the pumped storage power station and the pumping volume of the pumped storage power station in the next-level hydropower station are both constrained by the output constraint conditions of the pumped storage power station in the output constraint model.

[0185] In one optional embodiment, the constraints on the expected wind power output and the expected photovoltaic power output are specifically as follows:

[0186] ;

[0187] and They represent the preset values ​​in t The maximum expected wind power output and the maximum expected photovoltaic output at any given time.

[0188] Specifically, the system power balance constraint in this embodiment takes into account the output uncertainty of wind power, photovoltaic power, and runoff hydropower stations, as well as the output characteristics of various types of hydropower stations. The output value and power consumption of the pumped storage power station are calculated using the following expressions:

[0189] ;

[0190] ;

[0191] in, Indicates the first h A pumped storage power station t The actual power generation flow of the pumped storage power station at any given time. This indicates the amount of water pumped by a pumped storage power station in the next-level hydropower station. Indicates the first h The average water consumption rate of a pumped storage power station Indicates the first h Pumping efficiency of a pumped storage power station.

[0192] Please see Figure 4 A second aspect of the present invention provides a power system assessment system that considers the participation of hydropower stations, comprising:

[0193] The regulation flexibility assessment module 101 is used to calculate the regulation flexibility assessment result of the power system under assessment based on the actual operating data of each hydropower station in the power system under assessment and using the regulation flexibility assessment model.

[0194] The resilience quantification assessment module 102 is used to obtain the resilience quantification assessment result of the power system to be assessed based on the preset total energy output threshold and the total energy output change curve of the power system to be assessed under the disturbance scenario.

[0195] The power system optimization scheduling module 103 is used to construct and solve the optimization scheduling objective function of the power system to be evaluated based on the adjustment flexibility assessment result and the resilience quantification assessment result, and obtain the optimization scheduling strategy of the power system to be evaluated, so as to schedule the power system to be evaluated based on the optimization scheduling strategy.

[0196] The adjustment flexibility assessment model is constructed based on preset output parameters of runoff hydropower stations, wind and solar power output parameters, and output constraint models of various types of hydropower stations.

[0197] As a preferred embodiment, the system further includes a force constraint model construction module, used for:

[0198] Based on the preset output limit value and ramp rate, the upper and lower limits of output and ramp constraints of each hydropower station are determined.

[0199] Based on the operational constraints of each type of hydropower station, the output constraints of each type of hydropower station are determined.

[0200] Based on the upper and lower limits of output, the ramping constraint, and the output constraint conditions of various types of hydropower stations, the output constraint model is constructed.

[0201] The operational constraints include at least one of the following: power generation flow constraints, water discharge constraints, reservoir capacity constraints, and pumped storage state constraints.

[0202] As a preferred embodiment, the system further includes a flexibility assessment model construction module, used for:

[0203] Based on the power output parameters of the runoff hydropower station and the power output parameters of the wind and solar power, a quantitative model of flexibility adjustment demand is constructed.

[0204] Based on the aforementioned output constraint model, the average water consumption rate of the adjustable hydropower station, and the average water consumption rate of the cascade hydropower station, the output range of the adjustable hydropower station and the output range of the cascade hydropower station at each time point are determined respectively.

[0205] Based on the output range of the adjustable hydropower station, the output range of the cascade hydropower station, the preset maximum regulation capacity value of the adjustable hydropower station and the maximum regulation capacity value of the cascade hydropower station, a quantitative model of flexible regulation capacity is constructed.

[0206] Based on the aforementioned flexibility adjustment demand quantification model and the aforementioned flexibility adjustment capability quantification model, a flexibility adjustment capability insufficient risk quantification model is generated.

[0207] The adjustment flexibility assessment model is obtained based on the aforementioned flexibility adjustment demand quantification model, the aforementioned flexibility adjustment capability quantification model, and the aforementioned flexibility adjustment capability insufficient risk quantification model.

[0208] As a preferred embodiment, the regulation flexibility assessment module 101 is used to calculate the regulation flexibility assessment result of the power system under assessment based on the actual operating data of each hydropower station in the power system under assessment using a regulation flexibility assessment model, specifically including:

[0209] Based on the actual operating data, the average water consumption rate of the runoff hydropower station, the average water consumption rate of the adjustable hydropower station, and the average water consumption rate of the cascade hydropower station, the output values ​​of each runoff hydropower station, the output value of the adjustable hydropower station, and the output value of the cascade hydropower station at the current moment are obtained respectively.

[0210] Based on the power output of the runoff hydropower station, the quantitative results of the upward and downward adjustment of flexibility demand are calculated using the flexibility adjustment demand quantification model.

[0211] Based on the adjustable hydropower station output range, the cascade hydropower station output range, the adjustable hydropower station output value, and the cascade hydropower station output value, the flexibility adjustment capability quantification model is used to calculate and obtain the flexibility upward adjustment capability quantification result and the flexibility downward adjustment capability quantification result.

[0212] Based on the quantitative results of the flexibility upsizing capability, the quantitative results of the flexibility downsizing capability, the quantitative results of the flexibility upsizing demand, and the quantitative results of the flexibility downsizing demand, the quantitative results of the insufficient flexibility adjustment capability risk are calculated using the flexibility adjustment capability insufficiency risk quantification model.

[0213] As a preferred embodiment, the system further includes a total energy output change curve acquisition module, used for:

[0214] Obtain the total energy output value of the power system to be evaluated at each moment under the disturbance scenario;

[0215] Based on the total energy output value at each time point, a total energy output variation curve is generated.

[0216] As a preferred embodiment, the resilience quantification assessment module 102 is used to obtain the resilience quantification assessment result of the power system under assessment based on a preset total energy output threshold and the total energy output change curve of the power system under the disturbance scenario, specifically including:

[0217] Based on the total energy output change curve, determine the disturbance response time period, the post-disturbance operation time period, and the post-disturbance recovery time period of the power system to be evaluated, and determine the total energy output value at each time within the disturbance response time period, the post-disturbance operation time period, and the post-disturbance recovery time period;

[0218] The system performance loss value of the power system to be evaluated is determined based on the total energy output value at each time during the disturbance response period, the operation period after the disturbance, and the recovery period after the disturbance, as well as the total energy output threshold.

[0219] The disturbance response time period is the time period during which the power system under evaluation decreases from its initial total energy output value to its minimum total energy output value under the disturbance scenario; the post-disturbance operation time period is the time period during which the power system under evaluation maintains operation at the minimum total energy output value; and the post-disturbance recovery time period is the time period during which the power system under evaluation begins to recover its total energy output value from the minimum total energy output value.

[0220] As a preferred embodiment, the resilience quantification assessment module 102 is used to obtain the resilience quantification assessment result of the power system to be assessed based on a preset total energy output threshold and the total energy output change curve of the power system to be assessed under disturbance scenarios, specifically including:

[0221] The system performance drop rate of the power system to be evaluated is determined based on the total energy output threshold, the minimum total energy output value, and the disturbance response time period.

[0222] The system performance drop of the power system to be evaluated is determined based on the difference between the total energy output threshold and the minimum total energy output value.

[0223] Based on the total energy output change curve, obtain the total energy output recovery value of the power system to be evaluated after the recovery period following the disturbance, and determine the system performance recovery rate of the power system to be evaluated based on the total energy output recovery value, the minimum total energy output value, and the recovery period following the disturbance.

[0224] Based on the post-disturbance operating period, determine the minimum system performance duration of the power system to be evaluated;

[0225] The degree of system performance recovery of the power system to be evaluated is determined based on the difference between the total energy output recovery value and the total energy output threshold.

[0226] As a preferred embodiment, the power system optimization scheduling module 103 is used to construct and solve the optimization scheduling objective function of the power system to be evaluated based on the adjustment flexibility assessment result and the resilience quantification assessment result, thereby obtaining the optimization scheduling strategy of the power system to be evaluated, specifically including:

[0227] Based on the quantification results of insufficient flexibility adjustment capability risk, the quantification results of insufficient flexibility adjustment capability risk, and the system performance loss value, the optimization scheduling objective function is constructed.

[0228] Using the output constraint model and system power balance constraint as constraints, and minimizing the optimization scheduling objective function as the optimization scheduling objective, the optimization scheduling objective function is solved to obtain the optimization scheduling strategy.

[0229] As a preferred embodiment, the system power balance constraint is specifically a balance constraint between the power system output value, load shedding amount, and preset load demand at each time point; wherein, the power system output value includes the output value of each hydropower station and the wind and solar power output value.

[0230] The power system assessment system considering the participation of hydropower stations provided in this invention constructs a regulation flexibility assessment model by combining the output parameters of runoff hydropower stations, wind and solar power output parameters, and output constraint models of various types of hydropower stations in the power system to be assessed. This model can fully consider the operating characteristics of different types of hydropower stations, as well as the impact of random disturbances from wind power, photovoltaic power, and inflow on the regulation flexibility of the power system, thereby accurately obtaining the regulation flexibility assessment results of the power system to be assessed. In addition, the system can consider the impact of disturbance scenarios on the performance of the power system to be assessed during the resilience assessment process, thereby accurately obtaining the quantitative assessment results of the resilience of the power system to be assessed, and thus accurately and effectively achieving the scheduling optimization of the power system with the participation of hydropower stations.

[0231] A third aspect of the present invention provides a computer device, comprising: one or more processors;

[0232] The processor is used to store one or more programs;

[0233] When the one or more programs are executed by the one or more processors, the power system evaluation method considering the participation of hydropower stations as described in any one of the first aspects is implemented.

[0234] The processor can be a Central Processing Unit (CPU), or other general-purpose processors, digital signal processors (DSPs), application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs), field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs), or other programmable logic devices, discrete gate or transistor logic devices, discrete hardware components, etc. The general-purpose processor can be a microprocessor or any conventional processor. The processor is the control center of the computer device, connecting various parts of the computer device through various interfaces and lines.

[0235] A fourth aspect of the present invention provides a computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, wherein when the computer program is executed, it implements the power system evaluation method considering the participation of hydropower stations as described in any embodiment of the first aspect.

[0236] Wherein, if the modules / units integrated into the computer device are implemented as software functional units and sold or used as independent products, they can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium. Based on this understanding, all or part of the processes in the methods of the above embodiments of the present invention can also be implemented by a computer program instructing related hardware. The computer program can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium, and when executed by a processor, it can implement the steps of the various method embodiments described above. The computer program includes computer program code, which can be in the form of source code, object code, executable files, or certain intermediate forms. The computer-readable medium can include: any entity or device capable of carrying the computer program code, recording media, USB flash drives, portable hard drives, magnetic disks, optical disks, computer memory, read-only memory (ROM), random access memory (RAM), electrical carrier signals, telecommunication signals, and software distribution media, etc.

[0237] The above description represents the preferred embodiments of the present invention. It should be noted that those skilled in the art can make various improvements and modifications without departing from the principles of the present invention, and these improvements and modifications are also considered to be within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0238] Those skilled in the art will understand that embodiments of the present invention can be provided as methods, systems, or computer program products. Therefore, the present invention can take the form of a completely hardware embodiment, a completely software embodiment, or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Furthermore, the present invention can take the form of a computer program product implemented on one or more computer-usable storage media (including but not limited to disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, etc.) containing computer-usable program code. The solutions in the embodiments of the present invention can be implemented using various computer languages, such as the object-oriented programming language Java and the interpreted scripting language JavaScript.

[0239] This invention is described with reference to flowchart illustrations and / or block diagrams of methods, apparatus (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the invention. It will be understood that each block of the flowchart illustrations and / or block diagrams, and combinations of blocks in the flowchart illustrations and / or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions can be provided to a processor of a general-purpose computer, special-purpose computer, embedded processor, or other programmable data processing apparatus to produce a machine, such that the instructions, which execute via the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing apparatus, generate instructions for implementing the flowchart illustrations and / or block diagrams. Figure 1 One or more processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A device that provides the functions specified in one or more boxes.

[0240] These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable storage medium that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing device to function in a particular manner, such that the instructions stored in the computer-readable storage medium produce an article of manufacture including instruction means, which are implemented in a process Figure 1 One or more processes and / or boxes Figure 1 The function specified in one or more boxes.

[0241] These computer program instructions may also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing equipment to cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer or other programmable equipment to produce a computer-implemented process, thereby providing instructions that execute on the computer or other programmable equipment for implementing the process. Figure 1 One or more processes and / or boxes Figure 1 The steps of the function specified in one or more boxes.

[0242] Although preferred embodiments of the invention have been described, those skilled in the art, upon learning the basic inventive concept, can make other changes and modifications to these embodiments. Therefore, the appended claims are intended to be interpreted as including both the preferred embodiments and all changes and modifications falling within the scope of the invention.

[0243] Obviously, those skilled in the art can make various modifications and variations to this invention without departing from its spirit and scope. Therefore, if these modifications and variations fall within the scope of the claims of this invention and their equivalents, this invention also intends to include these modifications and variations.

Claims

1. A method for power system assessment considering the participation of hydropower plants, characterized by, include: Based on the actual operating data of each hydropower station in the power system to be evaluated, the adjustment flexibility assessment results of the power system to be evaluated are calculated using the adjustment flexibility assessment model. The adjustment flexibility assessment results include quantitative results of the demand for flexibility increase, the demand for flexibility decrease, the capacity for flexibility increase, the capacity for flexibility decrease, the risk of insufficient capacity for flexibility increase, and the risk of insufficient capacity for flexibility decrease. Based on the preset total energy output threshold and the total energy output change curve of the power system to be evaluated under the disturbance scenario, the quantitative assessment result of the resilience of the power system to be evaluated is obtained. Based on the adjustment flexibility assessment results and the resilience quantification assessment results, an optimal scheduling objective function for the power system under assessment is constructed and solved to obtain an optimal scheduling strategy for the power system under assessment, so as to schedule the power system under assessment based on the optimal scheduling strategy; wherein, the optimal scheduling objective function is specifically: ; and They represent in t The results of quantifying the risk of insufficient flexibility adjustment capability at any given time and the results of quantifying the risk of insufficient flexibility adjustment capability at any given time; This represents the system performance loss value in the resilience quantification assessment results; Describe the objective function for optimizing the scheduling; The adjustment flexibility assessment model is constructed based on preset output parameters of runoff hydropower stations, wind and solar power output parameters, and output constraint models of various types of hydropower stations.

2. The power system assessment method considering the participation of hydropower stations as described in claim 1, characterized in that, The method specifically constructs the output constraint model through the following steps: Based on the preset output limit value and ramp rate, the upper and lower limits of output and ramp constraints of each hydropower station are determined. Based on the operational constraints of each type of hydropower station, the output constraints of each type of hydropower station are determined. Based on the upper and lower limits of output, the ramping constraint, and the output constraint conditions of various types of hydropower stations, the output constraint model is constructed. The operational constraints include at least one of the following: power generation flow constraints, water discharge constraints, reservoir capacity constraints, and pumped storage state constraints.

3. The power system assessment method considering the participation of hydropower stations as described in claim 2, characterized in that, The method specifically constructs the adjustment flexibility assessment model through the following steps, including: Based on the power output parameters of the runoff hydropower station and the power output parameters of the wind and solar power, a quantitative model of flexibility adjustment demand is constructed. Based on the aforementioned output constraint model, the average water consumption rate of the adjustable hydropower station, and the average water consumption rate of the cascade hydropower station, the output range of the adjustable hydropower station and the output range of the cascade hydropower station at each time point are determined respectively. Based on the output range of the adjustable hydropower station, the output range of the cascade hydropower station, the preset maximum regulation capacity value of the adjustable hydropower station and the maximum regulation capacity value of the cascade hydropower station, a quantitative model of flexible regulation capacity is constructed. Based on the aforementioned flexibility adjustment demand quantification model and the aforementioned flexibility adjustment capability quantification model, a flexibility adjustment capability insufficient risk quantification model is generated. The adjustment flexibility assessment model is obtained based on the aforementioned flexibility adjustment demand quantification model, the aforementioned flexibility adjustment capability quantification model, and the aforementioned flexibility adjustment capability insufficient risk quantification model.

4. The power system assessment method considering the participation of hydropower stations as described in claim 3, characterized in that, The process of calculating the regulation flexibility assessment results of the power system under assessment using the regulation flexibility assessment model based on the actual operating data of each hydropower station in the power system under assessment specifically includes: Based on the actual operating data, the average water consumption rate of the runoff hydropower station, the average water consumption rate of the adjustable hydropower station, and the average water consumption rate of the cascade hydropower station, the output values ​​of each runoff hydropower station, the output value of the adjustable hydropower station, and the output value of the cascade hydropower station at the current moment are obtained respectively. Based on the power output of the runoff hydropower station, the quantitative results of the upward and downward adjustment of flexibility demand are calculated using the flexibility adjustment demand quantification model. Based on the adjustable hydropower station output range, the cascade hydropower station output range, the adjustable hydropower station output value, and the cascade hydropower station output value, the quantitative results of the flexibility adjustment capability quantification model are calculated to obtain the flexibility upward adjustment capability quantification results and the flexibility downward adjustment capability quantification results. Based on the quantitative results of the flexibility upsizing capability, the quantitative results of the flexibility downsizing capability, the quantitative results of the flexibility upsizing demand, and the quantitative results of the flexibility downsizing demand, the quantitative results of the insufficient flexibility adjustment capability risk are calculated using the flexibility adjustment capability insufficiency risk quantification model.

5. The power system assessment method considering the participation of hydropower stations as described in claim 1, characterized in that, The method specifically obtains the total energy output change curve through the following steps: Obtain the total energy output value of the power system to be evaluated at each moment under the disturbance scenario; Based on the total energy output value at each time point, a total energy output variation curve is generated.

6. The power system assessment method considering the participation of hydropower stations as described in claim 4, characterized in that, The step of obtaining the quantitative assessment result of the resilience of the power system under evaluation based on a preset total energy output threshold and the total energy output change curve of the power system under evaluation in a disturbance scenario specifically includes: Based on the total energy output change curve, determine the disturbance response time period, the operation time period after the disturbance, and the recovery time period after the disturbance for the power system to be evaluated, and determine the total energy output value at each time within the disturbance response time period, the operation time period after the disturbance, and the recovery time period after the disturbance. The system performance loss value of the power system to be evaluated is determined based on the total energy output value at each time during the disturbance response period, the operation period after the disturbance, and the recovery period after the disturbance, as well as the total energy output threshold. The disturbance response time period is the time period during which the power system under evaluation decreases from its initial total energy output value to its minimum total energy output value under the disturbance scenario; the post-disturbance operation time period is the time period during which the power system under evaluation maintains operation at the minimum total energy output value; and the post-disturbance recovery time period is the time period during which the power system under evaluation begins to recover its total energy output value from the minimum total energy output value.

7. The power system assessment method considering the participation of hydropower stations as described in claim 6, characterized in that, The step of obtaining the resilience quantitative assessment result of the power system under evaluation based on a preset total energy output threshold and the total energy output change curve of the power system under evaluation in a disturbance scenario specifically includes: The system performance drop rate of the power system to be evaluated is determined based on the total energy output threshold, the minimum total energy output value, and the disturbance response time period. The system performance drop of the power system to be evaluated is determined based on the difference between the total energy output threshold and the minimum total energy output value. Based on the total energy output change curve, obtain the total energy output recovery value of the power system to be evaluated after the recovery period following the disturbance, and determine the system performance recovery rate of the power system to be evaluated based on the total energy output recovery value, the minimum total energy output value, and the recovery period following the disturbance. Based on the post-disturbance operating period, determine the minimum system performance duration of the power system to be evaluated; The degree of system performance recovery of the power system to be evaluated is determined based on the difference between the total energy output recovery value and the total energy output threshold.

8. The power system assessment method considering the participation of hydropower stations as described in claim 6, characterized in that, The step of constructing and solving the optimal scheduling objective function of the power system to be evaluated based on the adjustment flexibility assessment results and the resilience quantification assessment results to obtain the optimal scheduling strategy of the power system to be evaluated specifically includes: Using the output constraint model and system power balance constraint as constraints, and minimizing the optimization scheduling objective function as the optimization scheduling objective, the optimization scheduling objective function is solved to obtain the optimization scheduling strategy.

9. The power system assessment method considering the participation of hydropower stations as described in claim 8, characterized in that, The system power balance constraint is specifically the balance constraint between the power system output value, load shedding amount and preset load demand at each time point; wherein, the power system output value includes the output value of each hydropower station and the wind and solar power output value.

10. A power system evaluation system considering the participation of hydropower stations, characterized in that, include: The adjustment flexibility assessment module is used to calculate the adjustment flexibility assessment results of the power system under assessment based on the actual operating data of each hydropower station in the power system under assessment using the adjustment flexibility assessment model; wherein, the adjustment flexibility assessment results include the quantitative results of the upward adjustment demand for flexibility, the quantitative results of the downward adjustment demand for flexibility, the quantitative results of the upward adjustment capacity for flexibility, the quantitative results of the downward adjustment capacity for flexibility, the quantitative results of the risk of insufficient upward adjustment capacity for flexibility, and the quantitative results of the risk of insufficient downward adjustment capacity for flexibility. The resilience quantification assessment module is used to obtain the resilience quantification assessment result of the power system to be assessed based on the preset total energy output threshold and the total energy output change curve of the power system to be assessed under the disturbance scenario. The power system optimal dispatch module is used to construct and solve the optimal dispatch objective function of the power system to be evaluated based on the adjustment flexibility assessment results and the resilience quantification assessment results, thereby obtaining the optimal dispatch strategy for the power system to be evaluated, and dispatching the power system to be evaluated based on the optimal dispatch strategy; wherein, the optimal dispatch objective function is specifically: ; and They represent in t The results of quantifying the risk of insufficient flexibility adjustment capability at any given time and the results of quantifying the risk of insufficient flexibility adjustment capability at any given time; This represents the system performance loss value in the resilience quantification assessment results; Describe the objective function for optimizing the scheduling; The adjustment flexibility assessment model is constructed based on preset output parameters of runoff hydropower stations, wind and solar power output parameters, and output constraint models of various types of hydropower stations.

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